Hollinger: Scouting NBA Draft’s top prospects at G League Fall Invitational
Now? Already? We really did this in September?
Yes, apparently, we did. There were two honest-to-goodness, real live basketball games this past week in North America, and they had nothing to do with the FIBA World Cup. In an event that featured several players likely to be selected in the 2024 NBA Draft, the G League Fall Invitational pitted G League Ignite against the Perth Wildcats of Australia’s NBL. The contests, played in Ignite’s home arena outside Las Vegas, started the hourglass on the 2024 draft cycle.
Much like last year’s event against Victor Wembanyama’s team from France, this event was a must-see for NBA scouts and execs as a first data point on several players who should factor prominently on draft night — including possibly the top three picks in the draft. Unlike last year, however, the hype factor was microscopic, as there was no prospect anywhere near Wembanyama’s level.
Nonetheless, much was learned over the course of two games and multiple practices; no game all season will feature more draftable talent (sorry, Coach Cal). Ignite signed several top players who would otherwise be college freshmen and could see as many as seven players selected in June, while Perth brought a potential high lottery pick of its own in Alex Sarr and another intriguing prospect in guard Ben Henshall.
I’ll note that there were veterans out here too, and some of them did serious work — Perth’s Bryce Cotton cooked Ignite for 40 in the second game, for instance, as the two sides split the series one game apiece. Also, Perth’s 25-year-old forward Jordan Usher, who played collegiately at Georgia Tech, certainly warranted tracking as a potential 2024 free agent with NBA-caliber physical tools. (Speaking of which: The NBL starts its season unusually early — its annual Blitz tournament begins a week from now in Gold Coast, and the regular season tips Sept. 29 — which is one reason the exhibition series is pushed up this far on the calendar.)
Ignite’s veterans also serve a purpose, adding some stability and leadership to a teenage roster. In particular, multiple Ignite players praised the guidance of 32-year-old John Jenkins, a 2012 Atlanta Hawks first-rounder.
But this series was all about the prospects. Before we get too deep, however, let’s be realistic about where we are in the process. It’s important not to get carried away jumping to wild conclusions based on two games in September. Neither side had a ton of practice time as a group before these games, and they were the first real games for both. June is still many leagues over the horizon.
That said, scouts did walk away with a baseline to work from as they continue to evaluate these players. I sat courtside at both games and took in each side’s pregame work and some of Perth’s practice on the off day. Here are my main takeaways:
It’s Ron Holland, for now
Holland was the consensus choice to be the top pick in the 2024 draft heading into this event and did nothing to change that impression. I should note that it’s still a “soft” No. 1; many evaluators consider him less than overwhelming for a player to be selected this highly, as this is not considered a strong draft class overall. Nonetheless, at April’s Hoop Summit and in this event, Holland stood out.
In the two games against Perth, Holland averaged 28 points and impressed with his defense and intensity, registering eight steals. Repeatedly using his burst to get downhill, he shot 14 of 23 on 2s and drew 20 free-throw attempts across the two games. Holland’s outside shot has been a question among scouts, but his below-the-shoulder push shot also looked solid. He made 4 of 9 3s and a couple of midrange attempts and hit 16 of 20 from the line.
If you’re looking for a sample of the defense, check out this stretch when he reacts to a scramble situation and picks up Cotton on the fly, then shadows Perth’s waterbug guard for several seconds before picking his pocket for a clean steal:
We’ll also nitpick, however, because that’s what scouts do: Holland only had three assists across the two games; you’d like to see him be a more incisive passer if he’s going to be a first option offensively. Too often he puts his head down and goes to the rim come hell or high water; in the same vein, watch here as he draws a foul on the break but misses a wide-open Tyler Smith for a dunk:
Physically, Holland also looked shorter than his listed height of 6-foot-8; don’t be surprised if he measures about 6-6 1/2 or so in socks at the NBA Draft Combine. Between that and a narrow frame, his evaluation will be as a pure wing.
Finally, Holland’s greatest strength also is potentially his biggest weakness: His fire and intensity can boil over at times. He picked up a technical foul in the first game for taunting and was fortunate not to get one in the second after lobbing a choice adjective in a ref-ward direction. You love how hard he competes, but he has to keep it on the rails.
Another French big man sensation?
The player who did the most to change impressions — and generated the most conversation in the process — was Alex Sarr, the 7-1 French center for Perth with a 7-5 wingspan (and the brother of Thunder two-way Olivier Sarr). He made the interior a no-fly zone for Ignite players, blocking 12 shots over two games according to the official stats … and I strongly suspect that was an undercount. Sarr was a menace on the perimeter as well, pressuring opposing bigs away from the rim, sliding his feet in switches and hustling up and down the court.
He’s not just a paint protector, either. Sarr combines shot blocking with incredible mobility, and that’s what really gives him special potential at the defensive end. Two sequences in particular stood out in the second game, both of which came against Holland.
In the first, watch as he jumps the passing lane for a deflection on the initial pass (although he fails to catch it; more on that below). Then comes the really impressive part: He switches onto Holland and mirrors him back and forth through four changes of direction, with Holland getting absolutely nowhere before aborting into a deflected kickout pass. This is incredible:
Sarr has been criticized in the past for a cold motor, but he booked up and down the floor in both games in this series.
Offensively, Sarr lacks muscle, and his offensive game is more perimeter and skill-based. With his size and hops, he has the potential to be a very effective rim runner and short-roller, and he picked out some good passes on the moves in the two games.
Sarr also has developed a serviceable 3-point shot with his feet set; he made three of his five triples in the games and 8 of 11 from the line. Watching him in warm-ups before both contests, his arm mechanics seem fine, but the ball sometimes appears to come sliding off his pinkie and spinning like a Luis Tiant screwball. He could stand to be more consistent too. At times, his shot comes out very flat, but when he gets air under it, he can find the net.
On the ball, Sarr has a passable handle, but that sometimes gets him into trouble when he’s too adventurous; turnovers are his biggest issue right now. He had 10 in the two games, losing his dribble when he wandered in the direction of a guard on multiple occasions. He also committed four traveling violations at the start of moves.
My other concern about Sarr is his hands, which you really see on rebounds. He grabbed 17 caroms in the two games, but there were several other contested rebounds where he was above everyone else but could not high-point a one-handed rebound, plus a few uncontested boards where he seemed to fight the ball the entire way into his body.
Nearly every NBA team will have eyes on Sarr at the Blitz next week (one-stop shopping to see an entire league is every personnel scout’s delight), and he’ll be a must-see for lottery teams into the winter (the NBL season ends in February). While the Australian league probably only has two or three other truly draftable prospects for 2024, a steady stream of scouts will likely make the loooong trip to Perth (a five-hour cross-continent flight after you crossed the Pacific) just to see Sarr.
Tyler Smith makes his case
After Sarr, possibly the biggest mover up team’s boards was Smith, who established himself as a real possibility for the 2024 first round. A highly touted high school player who spent the last two seasons at Overtime Elite, he’d become a bit forgotten while serving his apprenticeship in Atlanta. However, he reminded everyone of his existence this past week with multiple defensive energy plays, finishing with seven blocks and four steals across the two games. Here’s a great chasedown from waaaaay behind the play to deny Henshall an alley-oop:
Smith also made two 3-pointers, a core skill for him, and looked comfortable picking-and-popping throughout the two games. Watching his release, it’s hard not to see the similarity in stroke to another forward of recent vintage, Chris Bosh. The parallels don’t stop there: Smith is 6-10, left-handed, from Texas and spent two developmental years in Atlanta with Overtime Elite.
“I recently started watching him,” Smith said when I brought up the comparison. “In my junior year, because I was getting compared to him a lot. Seeing a tall guy shoot like that, versatile like that, that’s what I want to be.”
Smith also listed Houston’s Jabari Smith Jr. and New Orleans’ Trey Murphy as players from whom he tries to borrow, with a clear vision of making it as a pro stretch four. To that point, he was on the court after both games getting extra work on his 3s; he told me he was working on spots he missed from during the game.
Smith will have to show more well-roundedness in other phases to cement himself in the first round. His high rate of stocks this weekend masked some schematic defensive mistakes; he also needs to improve his ball skills in general and his right hand in particular.
Despite how long he’s been on the radar, Smith is still quite young. This is his first draft-eligible season, and he will only be 19 on draft night. If Smith can combine consistent 3-point shooting with rim protection all season, he should land comfortably inside the first round.
Mixed marks for Buzelis
Matas Buzelis is the other Ignite player some have mentioned as a potential top pick in the draft, and he wasn’t particularly bad or anything this past week … but at the same time, he didn’t stand out either. A tall forward at 6-10 with notable pop off the floor and a plus skill level for a player his size, Buzelis certainly had his moments: He was Ignite’s second-leading scorer behind Holland in both games, and his resume included a couple of explosive dunks and some secondary rim protection.
Eye-test wise, however, there were several times when he couldn’t get to his spots offensively, looking a bit stiff and upright off the dribble and playing tentatively. Most of his best moments came as a play-finisher off the ball, either with a perimeter shot off the catch or by flying in toward the cup. On the ball, however, his dribbles sometimes led to misadventures, such as whatever this was:
Buzelis also was a bit too ambitious attacking bigs at the rim, getting stuffed on consecutive tries by Sarr in the first game. Again, these are two September games, and on balance, Buzelis didn’t play badly; none of this is overly damning, and he still projects as a top pick, especially given his size and skill combo. But the chance was there to make a larger impression, and it didn’t happen.
One of the biggest items to track for Buzelis will be his development as a shooter; he has a good-looking stroke right now but didn’t parlay it into a consistently dangerous 3-point threat in the two games against Perth. At his size, launching over closeouts figures to be one of his biggest advantages, and it’s relatively easy to imagine a Mike Miller-esque floor for him if he can get to another level as a shooter.
Izan Almansa will torment scouts
Some of the biggest disputes in NBA conference rooms this spring may come in regard to Izan Almansa, an undersized center without a single true go-to skill … but enough craft and feel to be a hugely productive player regardless. My personal perspective is that players like this tend to be undervalued on draft night, but one can see why NBA teams might have questions in this case. Almansa doesn‘t have much of a stretch game at this point, isn’t a freak athlete and is short for a center at 6-10. Almansa also looked winded at times when he got a few minutes into his shift, especially in the second game.
Nonetheless, he’s been insanely productive at his age level: Almansa was MVP at the U17 World Cup in 2021, the U18 Euro championship in 2022 and at the FIBA U19 World Cup in 2023.
Almansa’s best attribute is his ability to stay under control while operating at or near full speed; in situations where you might see other bigs go careening into a charging foul (or off the court entirely), he can effortlessly slow himself down and finish under control. That, combined with a good handle for his size, excellent hands and plus feel as a passer, enables him to emulate much smaller players while on the move. Efficiency is his calling card rather than brute force; Almansa scored 27 points on 15 shots in the two games, plus he had five assists, four steals and four blocks. Much of his best work came as a screener, where he was adept at slipping screens and/or timing his roll to create openings.
Look at this play, for instance, that begins with him hard-showing a pick-and-roll to force a turnover and culminates in him starting a Eurostep beyond the 3-point line and finishing it with a controlled floater finish. This is just mouth-watering, definitely-not-normal stuff from a teenaged big man:
At the moment, Almansa would probably go fourth in a mock draft of the players who played in this game, but he has a legitimate case to be a top-10 pick based on his productivity and ease of fit in a modern offense. He came off the bench in both games, but one suspects he’ll be starting for Ignite before long.
A second guard prospect down under
We have one name to add to teams’ draft boards after Henshall, Perth’s 19-year-old shooting guard, held his own in the two games.
Henshall showed he can be more than just a shooter, showing craft as a passer and getting his hands on balls at the defensive end. He often was matched up against Holland and didn’t look completely out of place in the assignment.
Henshall’s best skill is his outside shot — he made three of his four 3-point attempts and 12 of his 14 free throws — but he was also able to make a dent in transition and made a few saucy passes on the move.
In addition to set shooting, Henshall’s ability to get into a jump quickly off a hard right-hand dribble is a skill to build on. He actually looked much more comfortable shooting those than lunching off the catch, in pregame drills, the off-day practice and during games.
Henshall needs work on his left hand and his general handle in tight spaces, which can get a little high and wild. Realistically, he projects a notch lower than some of the other players we’ve talked about here and might be more of a prospect for 2025 or 2026.
That said, the entire NBA knows who he is now and will make a point of tracking him when they watch Sarr play in Australia this year.
Wait and see for the others
One Ignite player scouts were very excited to see, French wing Thierry Darlan, is still recovering from a March ankle injury and is not expected to see game action until October. Also sidelined in a walking boot was 17-year-old Dink Pate, who is not draft-eligible until 2025.
Ignite had two other potential draft prospects on the court in guard London Johnson and Senegalese wing Babacar Sane, both of whom likely project as second-rounders at this point. Sane has impressive strength and leaping ability and had 18 boards from the wing spot in the two games but needs to improve his skill level and decision-making on the move.
Johnson, a 6-4 point guard who was with Ignite last year but was not draft-eligible, showed good burst in transition situations and had some strong stands in on-ball defense, but he struggled against full-court ball pressure and needs to be a more consistent shooting threat. He did make some solid pocket passes in pick-and-roll, especially when paired with Almansa.
Ignite’s next stop on the calendar is the FIBA Intercontinental Cup on Sept. 21-24 in Singapore, where they play three games in a field that includes five other overseas pro teams. They will then reconvene for training camp and preseason before beginning their G League regular-season schedule Nov. 10.