2024 NBA mock draft: The uncertainty with next year's class
With Victor Wembanyama, Brandon Miller, Scoot Henderson and the rest of the 2023 class off to the NBA, it's time to shift our attention to next year's group.
The 2024 NBA draft is 12 months away, but we've had our eyes on these players for quite some time, posting our first mock draft in February. We've watched the class' best prospects grow up in high school, AAU, USA Basketball and FIBA events, as well as other all-star settings in the past two years, and will continue that process this summer and fall.
NBA teams still have a lot to learn about this group, especially at the top, where the sense among scouts is that things are completely wide open. This class is considered to be one of the weakest of graduating high school seniors we've seen in years, with no clear top prospects -- leaving a lot of uncertainty regarding the landscape of the 2024 lottery.
New players will undoubtedly emerge both in the college ranks and around the globe, and unlike in previous years, there are rare opportunities for less-heralded players to move into the top-five portion of the draft.
In comparison, our 2023 mock draft a year ago correctly predicted four of the top five picks who eventually heard their names called Thursday (similar to what we saw in 2022 and 2021), something we don't expect to happen for 2024.
G League Ignite and the Australian NBL are becoming increasingly important evaluation platforms in the NBA scouting world, as evidenced by the fact that six of the top 25 players projected to be drafted are signed there currently, including the top-two players in our mock draft, who are slated to play for Ignite.
Expect there to be significant movement as unknown players emerge and other, more highly regarded prospects inevitably stagnate or drop as they are heavily scrutinized throughout the season by NBA scouts.
Let's look at the way our mock sets up at this early stage, and the top storylines to follow into 2024.
The 2024 draft order is based on ESPN projections and reflects the current state of picks owed and owned:
2024 NBA mock draft
FIRST ROUND
1. Washington Wizards
Ron Holland | G League Ignite | SF/PF | Age: 17.9
2. Detroit Pistons
Matas Buzelis | G League Ignite | SF | Age: 18.6
3. Charlotte Hornets
Zaccharie Risacher | JL Bourg | SF | Age: 18.2
4. Indiana Pacers
Isaiah Collier | USC | PG | Age: 18.7
5. Oklahoma City Thunder (via Houston)
Justin Edwards | Kentucky | SG/SF | Age: 19.5
6. Utah Jazz
Cody Williams | Colorado | SF | Age: 18.5
7. San Antonio Spurs
D.J. Wagner | Kentucky | PG/SG | Age: 18.1
8. Orlando Magic
Donovan Clingan | UConn | C | Age: 19.3
9. Houston Rockets (via Brooklyn)
Stephon Castle | UConn | PG/SG | Age: 18.6
10. Chicago Bulls
Kyle Filipowski | Duke | PF/C | Age: 19.6
11. Portland Trail Blazers
Kel'el Ware | Indiana | C | Age: 19.1
12. San Antonio Spurs (via Toronto)
Tyrese Proctor | Duke | PG | Age: 19.2
13. Atlanta Hawks
Ja'Kobe Walter | Baylor | SG | Age: 18.7
14. Minnesota Timberwolves
Kylan Boswell | Arizona | PG | Age: 18.1
15. Oklahoma City Thunder
Kwame Evans | Oregon | PF | Age: 18.8
16. New York Knicks
AJ Johnson | Illawarra Hawks | SG | Age: 18.5
17. Atlanta Hawks (via Sacramento)
Bronny James | USC | PG/SG | Age 18.7
18. Milwaukee Bucks (via New Orleans)
Izan Almansa | G League Ignite | PF/C | Age: 17.9
19. New York Knicks (via Dallas)
Alex Sarr | Perth Wildcats | PF/C | Age: 18.1
20. Cleveland Cavaliers
Terrance Arceneaux | Houston | SG/SF | Age: 19.6
21. Memphis Grizzlies
Ryan Dunn | Virginia | SF | Age: 20.4
22. Indiana Pacers (via LA Clippers)
Dillon Mitchell | Texas | SF/PF | Age: 19.7
23. Miami Heat
Ugonna Onyenso | Kentucky | C | Age: 18.7
24. Boston Celtics (via Golden State)
Freddie Dilione | Tennessee | PG | Age: 19.1
25. Los Angeles Lakers
Bobi Klintman | Cairns Taipans | SF/PF | Age: 20.2
26. Philadelphia 76ers
Omaha Biliew | Iowa St. | PF | Age: 18.8
27. New Orleans Pelicans (via Milwaukee)
Mark Mitchell | Duke | SF/PF | Age: 19.8
28. Phoenix Suns
Juan Nunez | Ratiopharm Ulm | PG | Age: 19.0
29. Boston Celtics
Adem Bona | UCLA | C | Age: 20.2
30. Denver Nuggets
Reece Beekman | Virginia | PG | Age: 21.7
SECOND ROUND
31. Detroit Pistons (via Washington)
Mackenzie Mgbako | Indiana | SF/PF | Age: 18.5
32. New York Knicks (via Detroit)
Aaron Bradshaw | Kentucky | C | Age: 19.1
33. Portland Trail Blazers
Xavier Booker | Michigan St. | PF/C | Age: 18.7
34. Indiana Pacers
Riley Kugel | Florida | SG | Age: 19.5
35. Houston Rockets
J.J Starling | Syracuse | SG | Age: 19.2
36. Utah Jazz
Robert Dillingham | Kentucky | PG | Age: 18.4
37. San Antonio Spurs
Tristan da Silva | Colorado | SF/PF | Age: 22.1
38. Orlando Magic
Baba Miller | Florida St. | PF | Age: 19.3
39. Houston Rockets (via Brooklyn)
Zach Edey | Purdue | C | Age: 21.1
40. New Orleans Pelicans (via Chicago)
Babacar Sane | G League Ignite | SF/PF | Age: 19.7
41. Milwaukee Bucks (via Portland)
Tyler Smith | G League Ignite | SF/PF | Age: 18.6
42. LA Clippers (via Toronto)
Judah Mintz | Syracuse | PG | Age: 19.9
43. Portland Trail Blazers (via Atlanta)
Baylor Scheierman | Creighton | SG/SF | Age: 22.7
44. Denver Nuggets (via Minnesota)
Nikola Durisic | Mega MIS | SG/SF | Age: 19.3
45. Houston Rockets (via Oklahoma City)
Ajay Mitchell | UC Santa Barbara | PG | Age: 20.9
46. Philadelphia 76ers (via New York)
Trey Alexander | Creighton | PG/SG | Age: 20.1
47. Sacramento Kings
Ryan Kalkbrenner | Creighton | C | Age: 21.4
48. New Orleans Pelicans
Milos Uzan | Oklahoma | PG | Age: 20.4
49. Sacramento Kings (via Dallas)
Mantas Rubstavicius | NZ Breakers | SG/SF | Age: 21.1
50. Cleveland Cavaliers
Nae'Qwan Tomlin | Kansas St. | PF/C | Age: 22.5
51. Minnesota Timberwolves (via Memphis
Trevon Brazile | Arkansas | PF | Age: 20.4
52. Los Angeles Lakers (via LA Clippers)
Miles Kelly | Georgia Tech | SG | Age: 20.4
53. Atlanta Hawks (via Miami)
Tyler Kolek | Marquette | PG | Age: 22.2
54. Houston Rockets (via Golden State)
DaRon Holmes | Dayton | C | Age: 20.8
55. San Antonio Spurs (via LA Lakers)
Alex Karaban | UConn | PF | Age: 20.6
56. Indiana Pacers (via Milwaukee)
Ousmane Ndiaye | Baskonia | PF/C | Age: 19.2
57. Washington Wizards (via Phoenix)
Matthew Murrell | Ole Miss | SG | Age: 21.5
58. Charlotte Hornets (via Boston)
Zhuric Phelps | SMU | SG | Age: 21.1
59. Orlando Magic (via Denver)
Dillon Jones | Weber St. | SF/PF | Age: 21.6
Note: The Philadelphia 76ers forfeited a 2024 second-round draft pick.
Who'll be the No. 1 pick in 2024?
There's a new player atop our mock draft after the spring's high school all-star game circuit: Ron Holland. The 17-year-old wing decommitted from Texas in April and signed with G League Ignite, giving Ignite the projected top two picks in our 2024 mock draft along with Matas Buzelis -- which would represent a historic night if that even comes close to materializing.
Holland was easily the best player on either team all week long at the Nike Hoop Summit practices and scrimmages in April, impacting the game on both ends of the floor after doing exactly the same thing a few weeks earlier during McDonald's All American week.
Holland isn't blessed with outrageous physical tools, but he has elite basketball instincts, feel as a passer and competitiveness, which gives him a very high floor and plenty of room to grow considering he's the youngest player currently projected to be drafted. He plays with nonstop energy, brings incredible activity defensively, covers ground exceptionally for steals, rebounds and blocks, and looks adept at guarding any position, even if his 6-foot-7, 192-pound frame and 6-10 wingspan are suited to being more of a wing than a combo forward.
Offensively, Holland pushes the ball in the open floor incessantly, overpowers weaker defenders in the lane, seeks out contact on every drive, and has generally improved his scoring and shot-creation ability to the point that he's no longer just a complementary option in the half-court. The best part of his game, besides his toughness and defensive tenacity, is his passing, as he's extremely unselfish and shows excellent vision dishing on the move.
The main concern revolves around his jumper, which does not sport great mechanics and has never been a consistent part of his game. To his credit, Holland doesn't run away from open looks, makes a few more catch-and-shoot 3s than you might expect in practice settings, and knocked down 76% of his free throw attempts last season. It gives Holland something to build on going into next season, when he's surely going to get plenty of practice reps and as many in-game 3-point attempts as he desires in the G League.
From a scoring or upside standpoint, Holland doesn't exactly fit the profile of what you typically expect to see from the No. 1 pick, making him somewhat of a placeholder atop this group, but the way he impacts winning at the highest level makes him a safe bet to emerge as a highly coveted prospect. -- Jonathan Givony
Who'll be the top college prospect in 2023-24?
Much like the 2023 NBA draft, in which the preseason consensus meant little and Brandon Miller emerged as the top NCAA prospect, we enter the 2024 draft cycle with the door wide open for college players to set themselves apart. Our early projected top three prospects -- Holland, Buzelis and Zaccharie Risacher -- won't play college basketball next season. The next four players on the list are Isaiah Collier (USC), Justin Edwards (Kentucky), Cody Williams (Colorado) and D.J. Wagner (Kentucky), players whom NBA teams are already tracking closely, but someone further down the board could certainly emerge, much in the way Miller did.
While there's not a ton separating these players at the moment, Collier has earned the mantle going into the season, having established himself as the top high school point guard who can distribute, score and defend at a high level for his age. He's the type of player who often leaves his fingerprints all over a game, with a good feel for controlling pace, playing out of ball screens and forcing defenders to make tough decisions. There are some cautionary flags in his profile -- Collier has just average length for his position, standing around 6-foot-3 barefoot but with just a plus-one wingspan, and he was a below-average free throw shooter in the Nike EYBL, which tends to be a better indicator of shooting prowess than a player's 3-point clip. Playing alongside Bronny James at USC next season, Collier will have a major platform to continue stating his case, but it can also be difficult for guards who aren't oversized for their position to hold ground on these projections from rail to rail.
It's going to take some time for challengers to emerge. NBA front offices are somewhat down on this class for that reason, as the quality of the class, comparatively speaking, doesn't hold up as well as what we've seen over the past few drafts. Edwards has an interesting case as a tall, shot-making wing, having held down a lofty ranking for much of his high school career, but he's not reputed as much of a playmaker, and he'll turn 20 in December, making him a year older than most of the players in the freshman class. His Kentucky teammate, Wagner, brings excellent scoring chops in the backcourt, but is still undersized for a combo and wired to score more than distribute, the type of profile that historically tends to slip a bit as teams parse through the prospects. And Williams -- the younger brother of Oklahoma City Thunder guard Jalen Williams -- will attend Colorado, where he should have a strong opportunity to make a case.
The class of returning college players also appears less than top-heavy, with a host of players returning who were on the fringe of being drafted in 2023, but none of whom would have even had universally convincing first-round cases this year, including Duke's Kyle Filipowski and Tyrese Proctor and UConn's Donovan Clingan. This next calendar year poses a major challenge for teams in how they begin to further differentiate these prospects via intel, analytics and in-person evaluation. These early mocks are always challenging and never on the money, but the lack of clarity even at the very top of the draft is going to make this an intriguing draft cycle -- even if it's not the strongest group of players. -- Jeremy Woo
Why 2024 might be deeper than expected
Collegiate underclassmen and European players got the memo about the perceived weakness of the 2024 class, causing 25 players previously projected as top-100 prospects to withdraw at both the NCAA and international deadlines, severely weakening this year's second round. That significantly improved the depth of the 2024 group, including several high-upside long-term prospects who could very well end up cracking the lottery if they have the type of seasons they hope.
Finding spots for all the returning players, including several incoming freshmen who improved their standings over the course of the spring, actually wasn't that easy, and some might be surprised to see internationals such as Zvonimir Ivisic, Michael Caicedo, Jordi Rodriguez and NCAA upperclassmen such as Coleman Hawkins, Terrence Shannon Jr., Jalen Bridges, Alijah Martin, Grant Nelson and others not make the cut after withdrawing from the 2023 NBA draft in hopes of hearing their names called much higher in 2024. -- Givony
G League Ignite's impact on the 2024 NBA draft
Ignite's 2023 draft night was something of a mixed bag, with Scoot Henderson selected third by the Portland Trail Blazers, but Leonard Miller and Sidy Cissoko falling to Nos. 33 (Minnesota) and 44 (San Antonio), respectively, and Mojave King selected at No. 47 by the Indiana Pacers.
It'll be curious to see how the next 12 months play out for Ignite's incoming roster, which is expected to include more prospects than ever before in the program's short three-year history. The group is headlined by Holland and Buzelis, who will be the primary draws early in the season for NBA scouts, but also encompasses high school guard Dink Pate (who won't be eligible for the draft until 2025), NBA Academy product Thierry Darlan, holdovers London Johnson and Babacar Sane, and Overtime Elite import Tyler Smith. Another OTE product, Spanish forward Izan Almansa, is also expected to join Ignite, putting the total at eight prospects.
Past Ignite rosters have always featured a handful of veterans, to offer stability and competitive experience, and this year's team will likely be no different -- but Ignite's focus has always been player development, and it's worth noting that next season's personnel group is heavy on guards, wings and forwards who like having the ball in their hands. It certainly helps that Ignite plays a busy G League schedule, creating opportunities for lineup rotation and minutes for everyone. Still, this season looks likely to pose an interesting test for all parties, as Ignite tries to fit all these players into its existing infrastructure.
At a glance, Ignite's team is full of ball handlers and a bit light on shooting, something that will presumably be addressed via veteran signings. In a program that stresses individual development with a heavy dose of minutes and individual freedom, there are a lot of mouths to feed. Keeping everyone happy and facilitating a positive environment for the younger players is always the aim, but it's always a challenge on a team like this, where prospects sign on with high expectations. It's a good sign that Ignite has the NBA backing to continue adding talent through different avenues -- but you almost wonder if this is trending toward there being two Ignite teams in the future.
Regardless, this will be a team worth tracking, with Holland and Buzelis projected as high-level draft picks and teams also particularly intrigued by Almansa, Pate and Darlan at this early stage. One additional benefit here is that Ignite players are now allowed to remain in the program for as many years as they need, creating a longer runway for players to improve and evolve that doesn't force them into the draft until they're ready. -- Woo
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