- Nov 5, 2012
- 80,694
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Lol
Acts shocked gif
Acts shocked gif
2025 NBA Draft Thread
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by addict4sneakers,
- Start date
- Sep 5, 2010
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Last edited:
Moheezy
formerly mizzoe33
- Feb 10, 2008
- 11,494
- 9,477
Reading a mock draft today I was surprised when I saw San Antonio at #1 lol
I totally forgot about them…I mean look at the title of this thread
I totally forgot about them…I mean look at the title of this thread
- Sep 18, 2003
- 61,936
- 134,344
Scoot was 6’4” with shoes on allegedly
- Jul 16, 2017
- 22,604
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Apparently he had on Disco Stu’s shoes…dead fish and all
- Sep 18, 2003
- 61,936
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- Aug 2, 2006
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Well the lack of spacing in Europe makes it harder.
I mean I think there is a good chance he ends up just being a good to very good offensive player in the mold of an Anthony Davis.
Than like an elite number one option. His highlights are impressive but it's more impressive that a 7'4 guy is doing it,
than it is super effective offense.
The reason he's a generational guy is the defense imo.
- Jul 16, 2017
- 22,604
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- Sep 18, 2003
- 61,936
- 134,344
Mister Meaner
formerly super producer j
- Mar 24, 2007
- 20,530
- 10,989
Monica 
- Sep 5, 2010
- 93,248
- 129,937
Pistons rumors: What I’m hearing about Detroit’s NBA Draft plans
The 2023 NBA Draft is less than a week away, and the annual event this time around will serve as an unfortunate reminder for the league’s worst team that it won’t be leaving Brooklyn on Thursday with arguably the best prospect since LeBron James. The Pistons, instead, sit at No. 5, the worst possible outcome for the organization.
However, that slot, and the one before it, comes with more intrigue than the rest. Victor Wembanyama will go No. 1 overall to the Spurs — I already bet my life savings on it just to make an extra $100. After that, Alabama’s Brandon Miller and the G League Ignite’s Scoot Henderson will very likely go Nos. 2 and 3, but which one goes where is still up in the air.
So, the draft really begins with the Houston Rockets at No. 4, and then the Pistons will step to the plate next.
While Detroit must react to the Rockets’ decision at No. 4, I’m hearing the Pistons will be strongly considering five prospects with their selection if they stay put at No. 5: Amen and Ausar Thompson (Overtime Elite), Cam Whitmore (Villanova), Jarace Walker (Houston) and Taylor Hendricks (Central Florida).
All five of those prospects have worked out with Detroit over the last two weeks, according to multiple league sources who agreed to provide background while not being authorized to speak publicly. Hendricks, in particular, impressed in front of Pistons executives and coaches, most notably with his shooting. The 6-foot-9 forward, has the potential to be an impactful 3-and-D wing for the Pistons immediately upon arriving in the Motor City, assuming he ends up being the pick. There’s room to grow into something more, too, if he can improve his ballhandling and decision-making. The 19-year-old forward with a 7-foot-1 wingspan can defend multiple positions, as well, due to his ability to slide his feet.
Ausar Thompson also has some big supporters in the Pistons’ front office, according to those league sources, and very well could be who Detroit takes in Thursday’s draft. The 20-year-old Ausar is more of a wing than his brother, but both are supreme athletes with good size. In his 2023 NBA Draft Guide, colleague Sam Vecenie wrote that Ausar Thompson reminds him most of Andre Iguodala. I couldn’t agree more. The potential Ausar Thompson has a secondary or tertiary creator for others really drives that home, as do his physical gifts, finishing ability and questionable jump shooting.
It’s not a given, though, that the Pistons will select at No. 5. “If it’s going to help us move forward, we’ll entertain anything,” general manager Troy Weaver said back in April. “We’re excited about this draft pool, but we’ll try to move the team forward any way we can.”
Outside of No. 1, all of the picks in the top 5 could be up for grabs. I think it’s more likely that the Pistons trade back than use No. 5 to acquire a veteran player via trade, but it does sound like all options are still on the table ahead of Thursday’s draft.
MassLive.com reported on Thursday that the Boston Celtics have been and will continue to be active in trade talks throughout the offseason. One of the names the Celtics called to inquire about was Isaiah Stewart, according to those league sources. Other teams, too, have called the Pistons about the soon-to-be fourth-year big man. When Detroit got Stewart in the 2021 NBA Draft, rivals teams called to try and get the Pistons to trade him. He is valued around the league due to his defensive versatility and potential as a frontcourt floor spacer.
To the best of my knowledge, the Pistons very much view Stewart as a key part of their core going forward — even with a bit of a big-man logjam — and not only would I be stunned if he were traded, I’d be a bit surprised if he didn’t sign an extension this summer.
Aside from everyone in the organization, from executives to players, recognizing “Beef Stew” as the heart and soul of the young Detroit squad, his value as a switchable defender and the seeds he’s planted as an outside shooter are important to the Pistons moving forward. Additionally, Stewart, who just turned 22, was part of Weaver’s inaugural draft class, and with fellow classmate Saddiq Bey traded to the Hawks this past season and Killian Hayes still finding his footing in the NBA, having something to show for that incoming draft class, surely, would be important for both Weaver and the organization.
If Stewart were to sign a rookie extension, he’d be the first player drafted by the Pistons to sign one with the organization since Andre Drummond, who was selected ninth overall in the 2012 NBA Draft.
The 2023 NBA Draft is less than a week away, and the annual event this time around will serve as an unfortunate reminder for the league’s worst team that it won’t be leaving Brooklyn on Thursday with arguably the best prospect since LeBron James. The Pistons, instead, sit at No. 5, the worst possible outcome for the organization.
However, that slot, and the one before it, comes with more intrigue than the rest. Victor Wembanyama will go No. 1 overall to the Spurs — I already bet my life savings on it just to make an extra $100. After that, Alabama’s Brandon Miller and the G League Ignite’s Scoot Henderson will very likely go Nos. 2 and 3, but which one goes where is still up in the air.
So, the draft really begins with the Houston Rockets at No. 4, and then the Pistons will step to the plate next.
While Detroit must react to the Rockets’ decision at No. 4, I’m hearing the Pistons will be strongly considering five prospects with their selection if they stay put at No. 5: Amen and Ausar Thompson (Overtime Elite), Cam Whitmore (Villanova), Jarace Walker (Houston) and Taylor Hendricks (Central Florida).
All five of those prospects have worked out with Detroit over the last two weeks, according to multiple league sources who agreed to provide background while not being authorized to speak publicly. Hendricks, in particular, impressed in front of Pistons executives and coaches, most notably with his shooting. The 6-foot-9 forward, has the potential to be an impactful 3-and-D wing for the Pistons immediately upon arriving in the Motor City, assuming he ends up being the pick. There’s room to grow into something more, too, if he can improve his ballhandling and decision-making. The 19-year-old forward with a 7-foot-1 wingspan can defend multiple positions, as well, due to his ability to slide his feet.
Ausar Thompson also has some big supporters in the Pistons’ front office, according to those league sources, and very well could be who Detroit takes in Thursday’s draft. The 20-year-old Ausar is more of a wing than his brother, but both are supreme athletes with good size. In his 2023 NBA Draft Guide, colleague Sam Vecenie wrote that Ausar Thompson reminds him most of Andre Iguodala. I couldn’t agree more. The potential Ausar Thompson has a secondary or tertiary creator for others really drives that home, as do his physical gifts, finishing ability and questionable jump shooting.
It’s not a given, though, that the Pistons will select at No. 5. “If it’s going to help us move forward, we’ll entertain anything,” general manager Troy Weaver said back in April. “We’re excited about this draft pool, but we’ll try to move the team forward any way we can.”
Outside of No. 1, all of the picks in the top 5 could be up for grabs. I think it’s more likely that the Pistons trade back than use No. 5 to acquire a veteran player via trade, but it does sound like all options are still on the table ahead of Thursday’s draft.
MassLive.com reported on Thursday that the Boston Celtics have been and will continue to be active in trade talks throughout the offseason. One of the names the Celtics called to inquire about was Isaiah Stewart, according to those league sources. Other teams, too, have called the Pistons about the soon-to-be fourth-year big man. When Detroit got Stewart in the 2021 NBA Draft, rivals teams called to try and get the Pistons to trade him. He is valued around the league due to his defensive versatility and potential as a frontcourt floor spacer.
To the best of my knowledge, the Pistons very much view Stewart as a key part of their core going forward — even with a bit of a big-man logjam — and not only would I be stunned if he were traded, I’d be a bit surprised if he didn’t sign an extension this summer.
Aside from everyone in the organization, from executives to players, recognizing “Beef Stew” as the heart and soul of the young Detroit squad, his value as a switchable defender and the seeds he’s planted as an outside shooter are important to the Pistons moving forward. Additionally, Stewart, who just turned 22, was part of Weaver’s inaugural draft class, and with fellow classmate Saddiq Bey traded to the Hawks this past season and Killian Hayes still finding his footing in the NBA, having something to show for that incoming draft class, surely, would be important for both Weaver and the organization.
If Stewart were to sign a rookie extension, he’d be the first player drafted by the Pistons to sign one with the organization since Andre Drummond, who was selected ninth overall in the 2012 NBA Draft.
- Sep 5, 2010
- 93,248
- 129,937
Moheezy
formerly mizzoe33
- Feb 10, 2008
- 11,494
- 9,477
I don't know if AD is the best comparison to be honest. When I think of his shooting, I think of Yao Ming, he had such a soft touch and his jumper was un-blockable.
- Apr 5, 2008
- 39,606
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- Nov 5, 2015
- 10,612
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If he 6’4 in kicks…go head and start looking for spots in Charlotte.
Makes no sense to pass up.
Scoot and melo is a great fit.
It’s just Clifford that’s in the way. He needs to be gone after next year.
- Sep 5, 2010
- 93,248
- 129,937
- Mar 31, 2011
- 73,095
- 117,440
We already know Scoot has the big wingspan. On top of being built like a linebacker.
He’s the obvious pick.
He’s the obvious pick.
- Jul 13, 2005
- 35,421
- 27,032
I thought Scoot was closer to 6‘6 which is why I was giving him Tyreke Evans comps. Can play 1 to 3 at that size.
More vids I watch, Scoot gonna be a hell of a defender too. Plus that mid range really not that bad. Pretty solid
More vids I watch, Scoot gonna be a hell of a defender too. Plus that mid range really not that bad. Pretty solid
- Apr 5, 2008
- 39,606
- 80,252
- Sep 5, 2010
- 93,248
- 129,937
In what world could you've thought Scoot was 6'6?
Curious if Dariq falls in the draft, if that will impact Bradshaw's decision to play...
Curious if Dariq falls in the draft, if that will impact Bradshaw's decision to play...
- Sep 18, 2003
- 61,936
- 134,344
You thought scoot was 6’6” but Jalen green was 6’2”?
MVP
Supporter
- Feb 28, 2008
- 83,099
- 85,849
Seems everyone who is wanting to move up to 2 except NO is doing it for B. Miller. Interesting, and don't necessarily agree with it.
- Jul 13, 2005
- 35,421
- 27,032
These MySpace angles got me confused.
- Jun 14, 2022
- 3,269
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So Scoot could potentially be Anthony Edwards for Michael Jordan?
I wouldn't be mad at that.
I think Lillard and Miller's games would work better together than Melo Ball's would with Miller. Ball and Scoot I could see working well together.
I wouldn't be mad at that.
I think Lillard and Miller's games would work better together than Melo Ball's would with Miller. Ball and Scoot I could see working well together.
- Sep 5, 2010
- 93,248
- 129,937
NBA draft 2023: Breaking down 30 of the best prospects
Victor Wembanyama is No. 1. Who else scores near the top of my stats-based NBA draft (Thursday, 8 p.m. ET, ESPN) projections for the class of 2023?
With the Denver Nuggets crowned as champions, attention now shifts to the offseason, starting with the draft. The Nuggets' roster, featuring three starters they drafted (including Finals MVP Nikola Jokic in the second round) plus a contributor taken in the first round this past June (Christian Braun), is a testament to the power of the draft to shape franchises.
My projections translate performance in NCAA Division I and other levels to an NBA equivalent, then adjust for age and position to project value over a player's next five seasons. Lastly, I factor in ESPN's top 100 prospect rankings for the best consensus projection. (For more on how my projections work and past examples, see here.)
Here are my 2023 projections, which have a different look from my initial top 30 from March because seven of those players either withdrew from the draft or never declared in the first place.
Note: There are no projections for players from Overtime Elite (OTE), including Amen and Ausar Thompson, who both are in the top five of ESPN's top 100 prospects.
1. Victor Wembanyama
Metropolitans 92
F/C
Top 100: No. 1
Stats: No. 4
Consensus: 3.9 WARP
Although the NCAA, G League and OTE prospects have been preparing for the draft for months, Wembanyama played his last game for Metropolitans 92 on Thursday as they lost the series, 3-0, to AS Monaco in the French Pro A league finals.
Wembanyama's stats-only projection is very good -- seventh best among No. 1 picks since 2006 -- but doesn't quite match the "best prospect since LeBron" hype.
That's partially a product of the relatively weak level of competition in France compared to the top European leagues. Additionally, Wembanyama hasn't been highly efficient in his high-volume role, making 56% of his 2-pointers and 28% of his 3s this season. The idea that Wembanyama will be an All-Star-level player on offense as a rookie seems wildly optimistic.
I suspect we'll regard this period as Wembanyama exploring the enormous studio space of his unprecedented skill set for his size. And it's not like he has hurt his team in the process. Metropolitans 92 beating playoff opponents with far more accomplished veterans (including Tony Parker's Asvel club in the semifinals, led by former EuroLeague MVP Nando de Colo) has been a tremendous accomplishment.
2. Brandon Miller
Alabama
SF
Top 100: No. 2
Stats: No. 5
Consensus: 3.5 WARP
Miller's season ended on a low note, as he shot 23% on 2s and 16% on 3s in the NCAA tournament. That dropped his projection, but not enough to move him out of the second spot. More broadly, Miller was weirdly ineffective against top nonconference foes, including 0-of-8 shooting in a win at then-No. 1 Houston. At the same time, Miller dominated the SEC, making 60% of his 2s and 38% of his 3s in conference play.
3. Cam Whitmore
Villanova
SF
Top 100: No. 6
Stats: No. 1
Consensus: 3.2 WARP
Whitmore's lone college season, limited by a preseason thumb injury, has made him a polarizing prospect. Whitmore averaged just 0.7 assists per game, one of the lowest marks on record for an NBA-bound draft pick on the perimeter. Combo forward Nassir Little averaged 0.6 per game in his one-and-done season, while Kelly Oubre Jr. was at 0.8.
On the plus side, Whitmore scores the top stats-only projection in large part because of his strong steal rate (2.1 per 40 minutes) and 58% 2-point shooting in a high-volume role. Another key factor is Whitmore won't turn 19 until July, making him the youngest prospect in ESPN's top 10.
4. Taylor Hendricks
UCF
PF
Top 100: No. 9
Stats: No. 8
Consensus: 2.7 WARP
As NBA teams scour the draft for players with length who can also shoot well enough to keep playoff defenses honest, Hendricks looks like an ideal fit. He made 1.8 3s per game at a 39% clip in his lone season at UCF while blocking 1.7 shots per game. Just three first-round picks in my database have made at least 1.5 3s and blocked at least 1.5 shots in their final college seasons: Santi Aldama, Donte Greene and Keegan Murray. Greene was the only one before Hendricks to do it as a first-year player.
5. Gradey ****
Kansas
G/F
Top 100: No. 10
Stats: No. 9
Consensus: 2.6 WARP
Assuming he stays in the top 10 of ESPN's rankings, **** will be part of the group of players in the top 10 of both components of my projection that has historically yielded the brightest stars. The top five in the consensus projections all qualify. Shooting (40%) is ****'s calling card, but he's also notable for a well-rounded projection without significant weaknesses.
6. Cason Wallace
Kentucky
G
Top 100: No. 15
Stats: No. 3
Consensus: 2.6 WARP
A slide in the top 100 has caused Wallace to drop from fourth in March. It's possible teams are overthinking Wallace's offensive limitations (including 35% 3-point shooting). He figures as a strong defender with the best projected steal rate of any player in the top 50 and enough size to guard either backcourt position.
7. Dereck Lively II
Duke
C
Top 100: No. 13
Stats: No. 10
Consensus: 2.4 WARP
Despite the higher replacement level for centers in my projections due to the productivity level at the position in the NBA, Lively still cracks the top 10 in the stats-only model. That's because of his 72% finishing on 2-pointers and 4.7 blocks per 40 minutes. Only Wembanyama has a better projected block rate (8%) in this year's draft, and Lively is close behind.
8. Jarace Walker
Houston
PF
Top 100: No. 7
Stats: No. 14
Consensus: 2.3 WARP
Although Walker was a productive starter as a freshman on one of the nation's best teams, I struggled all season to figure out his special NBA skill. Perhaps the answer is his combination of playmaking and shot-blocking. Walker had three assists per 100 plays and blocked 6% of opponents' 2-point attempts. No NBA-bound draft pick in my database matched that combo.
9. Brandin Podziemski
Santa Clara
G/F
Top 100: No. 27
Stats: No. 2
Consensus: 2.3 WARP
After playing sparingly as a freshman at Illinois, Podziemski boosted his stats-only projection to second among all players in this year's draft by stuffing the stat sheet at Santa Clara. Podziemski made 44% of his 3s while leading the Broncos in points, rebounds, assists and steals per game. A strong performance at the NBA draft combine helped move Podziemski into first-round territory, pushing his consensus projection into the top 10.
10. Brice Sensabaugh
Ohio State
SF
Top 100: No. 22
Stats: No. 7
Consensus: 2.2 WARP
As a freshman, Sensabaugh had the nation's fourth-highest usage rate per Sports-Reference.com, trailing only three upperclassmen at mid-major schools (Antoine Davis, Darius McGhee and Jordan Dingle). Given that heavy load, Sensabaugh had impressive efficiency, making 52% of his 2s and 40% of his 3s. How much else Sensabaugh contributes besides scoring is in question, but his potential to get buckets is high.
11. Dariq Whitehead
Duke
SF
Top 100: No. 26
Stats: No. 6
Consensus: 2.1 WARP
Like Whitmore, Whitehead scores well in the stats-only projection despite a one-and-done season hampered by injury. (In Whitehead's case, a Jones fracture remained an issue to the point where he recently had a second procedure to address it, per ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski.) Age is a factor, too; Whitehead is the third-youngest player in the top 100.
While Whitehead wasn't especially productive at Duke, his projection is boosted by his play in the 2021 Nike EYBL AAU competition. Among players in this year's draft, Whitehead's EYBL rating was third behind Sensabaugh and Lively.
12. Keyonte George
Baylor
SG
Top 100: No. 17
Stats: No. 11
Consensus: 2.1 WARP
Still in the top 10 back in March, George has seen his stock decline since. That's understandable based on his inefficiency as a one-and-done, hitting 42% of 2s and 34% of 3s. George also had more turnovers than assists. On the plus side, he was an accurate foul shooter (79%) and did manage to generate assists at a high rate (3.9 per 40 minutes).
13. Scoot Henderson
G League Ignite
PG
Top 100: No. 3
Stats: No. 33
Consensus: 2.1 WARP
Understanding the disconnect between Henderson's middling stats-only projection and the hype around him as a top-two prospect throughout the season will be one of the most important tasks for the teams picking after the San Antonio Spurs later this month. Henderson's per-game stats (16.5 points, 6.5 assists and 5.4 rebounds per game in regular-season play) looked good enough, but they masked a .510 true shooting percentage as compared to a league average of .581.
The improved 3-point shooting that Henderson showcased in a pair of exhibitions against Wembanyama and Metropolitans 92 was nowhere to be found as he shot 28% in regular-season play. It's possible that Henderson was merely limited by injury and hampered by questionable floor spacing (Ignite was dead last in 3s during the regular season). Players like Henderson have tended to beat their stats-only projections.
Still, Henderson's play is worth a deep dive from teams considering using a top-three pick on him.
14. Anthony Black
Arkansas
G
Top 100: No. 8
Stats: No. 18
Consensus: 2.0 WARP
Black and Wallace are an interesting comparison as SEC one-and-done combo guards. Black ranks higher in the top 100, while Wallace has the better stats-only projection. Wallace rated slightly better in college because of superior assist, steal and turnover rates and had strong EYBL stats. Working in Black's favor: his size (6-foot-7) and being a couple months younger than Wallace.
15. Jett Howard
Michigan
SG
Top 100: No. 19
Stats: No. 12
Consensus: 2.0 WARP
Much of Howard's NBA value will be determined by whether he becomes a great shooter or just a good one. Among prospects in ESPN's top 30, Howard projects to take the second-highest share of his shots from 3. He hit 37% as a freshman on high volume with 80% shooting from the foul line.
16. Leonard Miller
G League Ignite
F
Top 100: No. 23
Stats: No. 13
Consensus: 1.8 WARP
In his lone season with G League Ignite, Miller averaged a double-double (18 PPG, 11 RPG) during the regular season -- outscoring Henderson. Miller made an impressive 60% of his 2-point attempts but his 3-point shot (33% on 2.2 attempts per game) remains a work in progress. The 79% Miller shot on free throws is encouraging.
17. Jordan Hawkins
UConn
SG
Top 100: No. 16
Stats: No. 16
Consensus: 1.7 WARP
No player boosted their draft stock more during UConn's title run than Hawkins, the highest-volume 3-point shooter likely to go in the first round. At 39%, Hawkins' accuracy wasn't exceptional, but his diverse diet of long-range attempts included plenty on the move off of screens. The jump into the top 100 moved Hawkins in line with his stats-only ranking.
18. Nick Smith Jr.
Arkansas
G
Top 100: No. 14
Stats: No. 19
Consensus: 1.7 WARP
A projected top-five pick in October, Smith saw his stock tumble after an uneven freshman season that saw him limited by injuries to 17 games. When he did play, Smith made 40% of his 2-point attempts, putting him in the bottom 10 among NBA-bound draft picks in my database.
Setting aside Michael Porter Jr., who attempted just 30 2-pointers during his own injury-shortened college season, 3-point specialist Devonte' Graham is the most notable success story from this group. Whoever drafts Smith will be hoping that he can replicate his pre-NCAA success at the EYBL level, where he rated better than both Miller and Hendricks.
19. Colby Jones
Xavier
SG
Top 100: 28
Stats: No. 15
Consensus: 1.5 WARP
Jones will be an interesting data point in the importance of college free throw shooting to projecting NBA 3-point success. After hitting 30% of his 3s in his first two seasons at Xavier, Jones jumped to 38% last year but hit a career-low 65% at the foul line. Although Jones is a well-rounded ball handler and defender, he probably needs to be at least an average shooter to be a valuable NBA contributor.
20. Noah Clowney
Alabama
F/C
Top 100: No. 21
Stats: No. 26
Consensus: 1.3 WARP
Don't let Clowney's 49% field-goal percentage trick you. He's a high-percentage finisher (67% on 2s) who was forced to take nearly as many 3s (which he shot at a 28% clip) as 2s playing power forward at Alabama alongside Charles Bediako. NBA floor spacing should help Clowney's efficiency. At the same time, he'll have a better chance of succeeding offensively if he can protect the rim well enough to hold up as a center on defense.
21. Kris Murray
Iowa
F
Top 100: No. 25
Stats: No. 25
Consensus: 1.2 WARP
Playing nearly the same role in which his twin brother Keegan starred before being drafted No. 4 overall last June, Kris more than doubled his scoring average to 20.2 PPG. Kris doesn't project as quite as good a shooter as his brother (35% on 3s, 70% on free throws for his career as compared to 37% and 75%). He also didn't provide as much impact as a shot-blocker. Still, given Keegan was an All-Rookie first-team pick, there's plenty of room for Kris to be a useful NBA player in his own right.
22. Jordan Walsh
Arkansas
F
Top 100: No. 39
Stats: No. 17
Consensus: 1.2 WARP
Walsh's EYBL performance -- fourth-best among players in this year's draft -- is propping up his stats-only projection. At Arkansas, Walsh wasn't as impactful as a rebounder or playmaker, though his strong steal rate did carry over. The big question is whether Walsh can score efficiently given his 51% shooting on 2s and 28% shooting on 3s.
23. Kobe Bufkin
Michigan
G
Top 100: No. 18
Stats: No. 32
Consensus: 1.2 WARP
Since debuting in 1996, the late Kobe Bryant has been the only "Kobe" in NBA history. Now, Bufkin is poised to become the first player named after Bryant (or not?) to follow him to the NBA. After averaging just 12.7 PPG through the 2022 portion of the 2022-23 campaign, Bufkin boosted that to 14.8 PPG starting with conference play to leap up draft boards.
24. Marcus Sasser
Houston
G
Top 100: No. 37
Stats: No. 20
Consensus: 1.2 WARP
At 6-foot-1, Sasser played more off the ball than on it at Houston, which may explain why scouts don't seem as high on him as his statistical projection suggests. Sasser was a 40% 3-point shooter his last two seasons, and he plays bigger than his height with strength and toughness.
25. Terquavion Smith
North Carolina State
PG
Top 100: No. 41
Stats: No. 21
Consensus: 1.0 WARP
Instead of building on the buzz he had coming out of the NBA draft combine as a freshman, Smith took a step back as a sophomore. He showed more playmaking chops in a lead ballhandling role, nearly doubling his assists per game, but scored less efficiently and left questions about his shot selection. Smith still projects well thanks to his volume shot creation, which looks ideal for a bench scorer role in the NBA.
26. Jaime Jaquez Jr.
UCLA
F/G
Top 100: No. 30
Stats: No. 28
Consensus: 1.0 WARP
The shooting hasn't yet come for Jaquez, who hit 32% of his 3s as a senior and 33% for his career, but it's easy to like everything else about his game. A tough rebounder and defender, Jaquez also has the lowest projected turnover rate of anyone in this year's projections.
27. Bilal Coulibaly
Metropolitans 92
F/G
Top 100: No. 11
Stats: No. 49
Consensus: 1.0 WARP
One of the younger players in the draft, Coulibaly's 2023 season was similar to 2022 lottery pick Ousmane Dieng in terms of rapid development. A bit player for Metropolitans 92 in the fall -- he played double-digit minutes just once in 2022 -- Coulibaly has emerged as a key starter in time for their playoff run, giving scouts watching Wembanyama a long look at him. Statistically, there's a long way to go, particularly as a shooter. Coulibaly has shot 14-of-31 on 3s, but his 60% foul shooting seems more telling.
28. Julian Phillips
Tennessee
SF
Top 100: No. 34
Stats: No. 30
Consensus: 0.9 WARP
An afterthought at times on a veteran-laden Tennessee team, Phillips will nonetheless likely be the only Vol drafted after his lone season. He'll have to improve his 24% 3-point shooting to contribute in the NBA.
29. Jalen Slawson
Furman
SF
Top 100: No. 72
Stats: No. 22
Consensus: 0.8 WARP
Slawson's mid-major skill set seems far more likely to translate to the NBA. As a 6-foot-7 forward, he did it all for the SoCon champs, leading the team in rebounding, steals and blocks per game and finishing second in both scoring and assists. Slawson had 19 points, 10 rebounds and four assists as Furman upset Virginia in the opening round of the NCAA tournament.
30. Jaylen Clark
UCLA
G/F
Top 100: No. 53
Stats: No. 26
Consensus: 0.8 WARP
Clark's 11.5 box plus-minus rating ranked sixth among college basketball regulars last season, per Sports-Reference.com. That was owed largely to Clark's eye-popping 2.6 steals per game, tied for most among major-conference players. The NABC Defensive Player of the Year, Clark must still develop as a shooter after hitting a career-high 33% of his 3-point attempts in his third and final season at UCLA.
Victor Wembanyama is No. 1. Who else scores near the top of my stats-based NBA draft (Thursday, 8 p.m. ET, ESPN) projections for the class of 2023?
With the Denver Nuggets crowned as champions, attention now shifts to the offseason, starting with the draft. The Nuggets' roster, featuring three starters they drafted (including Finals MVP Nikola Jokic in the second round) plus a contributor taken in the first round this past June (Christian Braun), is a testament to the power of the draft to shape franchises.
My projections translate performance in NCAA Division I and other levels to an NBA equivalent, then adjust for age and position to project value over a player's next five seasons. Lastly, I factor in ESPN's top 100 prospect rankings for the best consensus projection. (For more on how my projections work and past examples, see here.)
Here are my 2023 projections, which have a different look from my initial top 30 from March because seven of those players either withdrew from the draft or never declared in the first place.
Note: There are no projections for players from Overtime Elite (OTE), including Amen and Ausar Thompson, who both are in the top five of ESPN's top 100 prospects.
1. Victor Wembanyama
Metropolitans 92
F/C
Top 100: No. 1
Stats: No. 4
Consensus: 3.9 WARP
Although the NCAA, G League and OTE prospects have been preparing for the draft for months, Wembanyama played his last game for Metropolitans 92 on Thursday as they lost the series, 3-0, to AS Monaco in the French Pro A league finals.
Wembanyama's stats-only projection is very good -- seventh best among No. 1 picks since 2006 -- but doesn't quite match the "best prospect since LeBron" hype.
That's partially a product of the relatively weak level of competition in France compared to the top European leagues. Additionally, Wembanyama hasn't been highly efficient in his high-volume role, making 56% of his 2-pointers and 28% of his 3s this season. The idea that Wembanyama will be an All-Star-level player on offense as a rookie seems wildly optimistic.
I suspect we'll regard this period as Wembanyama exploring the enormous studio space of his unprecedented skill set for his size. And it's not like he has hurt his team in the process. Metropolitans 92 beating playoff opponents with far more accomplished veterans (including Tony Parker's Asvel club in the semifinals, led by former EuroLeague MVP Nando de Colo) has been a tremendous accomplishment.
2. Brandon Miller
Alabama
SF
Top 100: No. 2
Stats: No. 5
Consensus: 3.5 WARP
Miller's season ended on a low note, as he shot 23% on 2s and 16% on 3s in the NCAA tournament. That dropped his projection, but not enough to move him out of the second spot. More broadly, Miller was weirdly ineffective against top nonconference foes, including 0-of-8 shooting in a win at then-No. 1 Houston. At the same time, Miller dominated the SEC, making 60% of his 2s and 38% of his 3s in conference play.
3. Cam Whitmore
Villanova
SF
Top 100: No. 6
Stats: No. 1
Consensus: 3.2 WARP
Whitmore's lone college season, limited by a preseason thumb injury, has made him a polarizing prospect. Whitmore averaged just 0.7 assists per game, one of the lowest marks on record for an NBA-bound draft pick on the perimeter. Combo forward Nassir Little averaged 0.6 per game in his one-and-done season, while Kelly Oubre Jr. was at 0.8.
On the plus side, Whitmore scores the top stats-only projection in large part because of his strong steal rate (2.1 per 40 minutes) and 58% 2-point shooting in a high-volume role. Another key factor is Whitmore won't turn 19 until July, making him the youngest prospect in ESPN's top 10.
4. Taylor Hendricks
UCF
PF
Top 100: No. 9
Stats: No. 8
Consensus: 2.7 WARP
As NBA teams scour the draft for players with length who can also shoot well enough to keep playoff defenses honest, Hendricks looks like an ideal fit. He made 1.8 3s per game at a 39% clip in his lone season at UCF while blocking 1.7 shots per game. Just three first-round picks in my database have made at least 1.5 3s and blocked at least 1.5 shots in their final college seasons: Santi Aldama, Donte Greene and Keegan Murray. Greene was the only one before Hendricks to do it as a first-year player.
5. Gradey ****
Kansas
G/F
Top 100: No. 10
Stats: No. 9
Consensus: 2.6 WARP
Assuming he stays in the top 10 of ESPN's rankings, **** will be part of the group of players in the top 10 of both components of my projection that has historically yielded the brightest stars. The top five in the consensus projections all qualify. Shooting (40%) is ****'s calling card, but he's also notable for a well-rounded projection without significant weaknesses.
6. Cason Wallace
Kentucky
G
Top 100: No. 15
Stats: No. 3
Consensus: 2.6 WARP
A slide in the top 100 has caused Wallace to drop from fourth in March. It's possible teams are overthinking Wallace's offensive limitations (including 35% 3-point shooting). He figures as a strong defender with the best projected steal rate of any player in the top 50 and enough size to guard either backcourt position.
7. Dereck Lively II
Duke
C
Top 100: No. 13
Stats: No. 10
Consensus: 2.4 WARP
Despite the higher replacement level for centers in my projections due to the productivity level at the position in the NBA, Lively still cracks the top 10 in the stats-only model. That's because of his 72% finishing on 2-pointers and 4.7 blocks per 40 minutes. Only Wembanyama has a better projected block rate (8%) in this year's draft, and Lively is close behind.
8. Jarace Walker
Houston
PF
Top 100: No. 7
Stats: No. 14
Consensus: 2.3 WARP
Although Walker was a productive starter as a freshman on one of the nation's best teams, I struggled all season to figure out his special NBA skill. Perhaps the answer is his combination of playmaking and shot-blocking. Walker had three assists per 100 plays and blocked 6% of opponents' 2-point attempts. No NBA-bound draft pick in my database matched that combo.
9. Brandin Podziemski
Santa Clara
G/F
Top 100: No. 27
Stats: No. 2
Consensus: 2.3 WARP
After playing sparingly as a freshman at Illinois, Podziemski boosted his stats-only projection to second among all players in this year's draft by stuffing the stat sheet at Santa Clara. Podziemski made 44% of his 3s while leading the Broncos in points, rebounds, assists and steals per game. A strong performance at the NBA draft combine helped move Podziemski into first-round territory, pushing his consensus projection into the top 10.
10. Brice Sensabaugh
Ohio State
SF
Top 100: No. 22
Stats: No. 7
Consensus: 2.2 WARP
As a freshman, Sensabaugh had the nation's fourth-highest usage rate per Sports-Reference.com, trailing only three upperclassmen at mid-major schools (Antoine Davis, Darius McGhee and Jordan Dingle). Given that heavy load, Sensabaugh had impressive efficiency, making 52% of his 2s and 40% of his 3s. How much else Sensabaugh contributes besides scoring is in question, but his potential to get buckets is high.
11. Dariq Whitehead
Duke
SF
Top 100: No. 26
Stats: No. 6
Consensus: 2.1 WARP
Like Whitmore, Whitehead scores well in the stats-only projection despite a one-and-done season hampered by injury. (In Whitehead's case, a Jones fracture remained an issue to the point where he recently had a second procedure to address it, per ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski.) Age is a factor, too; Whitehead is the third-youngest player in the top 100.
While Whitehead wasn't especially productive at Duke, his projection is boosted by his play in the 2021 Nike EYBL AAU competition. Among players in this year's draft, Whitehead's EYBL rating was third behind Sensabaugh and Lively.
12. Keyonte George
Baylor
SG
Top 100: No. 17
Stats: No. 11
Consensus: 2.1 WARP
Still in the top 10 back in March, George has seen his stock decline since. That's understandable based on his inefficiency as a one-and-done, hitting 42% of 2s and 34% of 3s. George also had more turnovers than assists. On the plus side, he was an accurate foul shooter (79%) and did manage to generate assists at a high rate (3.9 per 40 minutes).
13. Scoot Henderson
G League Ignite
PG
Top 100: No. 3
Stats: No. 33
Consensus: 2.1 WARP
Understanding the disconnect between Henderson's middling stats-only projection and the hype around him as a top-two prospect throughout the season will be one of the most important tasks for the teams picking after the San Antonio Spurs later this month. Henderson's per-game stats (16.5 points, 6.5 assists and 5.4 rebounds per game in regular-season play) looked good enough, but they masked a .510 true shooting percentage as compared to a league average of .581.
The improved 3-point shooting that Henderson showcased in a pair of exhibitions against Wembanyama and Metropolitans 92 was nowhere to be found as he shot 28% in regular-season play. It's possible that Henderson was merely limited by injury and hampered by questionable floor spacing (Ignite was dead last in 3s during the regular season). Players like Henderson have tended to beat their stats-only projections.
Still, Henderson's play is worth a deep dive from teams considering using a top-three pick on him.
14. Anthony Black
Arkansas
G
Top 100: No. 8
Stats: No. 18
Consensus: 2.0 WARP
Black and Wallace are an interesting comparison as SEC one-and-done combo guards. Black ranks higher in the top 100, while Wallace has the better stats-only projection. Wallace rated slightly better in college because of superior assist, steal and turnover rates and had strong EYBL stats. Working in Black's favor: his size (6-foot-7) and being a couple months younger than Wallace.
15. Jett Howard
Michigan
SG
Top 100: No. 19
Stats: No. 12
Consensus: 2.0 WARP
Much of Howard's NBA value will be determined by whether he becomes a great shooter or just a good one. Among prospects in ESPN's top 30, Howard projects to take the second-highest share of his shots from 3. He hit 37% as a freshman on high volume with 80% shooting from the foul line.
16. Leonard Miller
G League Ignite
F
Top 100: No. 23
Stats: No. 13
Consensus: 1.8 WARP
In his lone season with G League Ignite, Miller averaged a double-double (18 PPG, 11 RPG) during the regular season -- outscoring Henderson. Miller made an impressive 60% of his 2-point attempts but his 3-point shot (33% on 2.2 attempts per game) remains a work in progress. The 79% Miller shot on free throws is encouraging.
17. Jordan Hawkins
UConn
SG
Top 100: No. 16
Stats: No. 16
Consensus: 1.7 WARP
No player boosted their draft stock more during UConn's title run than Hawkins, the highest-volume 3-point shooter likely to go in the first round. At 39%, Hawkins' accuracy wasn't exceptional, but his diverse diet of long-range attempts included plenty on the move off of screens. The jump into the top 100 moved Hawkins in line with his stats-only ranking.
18. Nick Smith Jr.
Arkansas
G
Top 100: No. 14
Stats: No. 19
Consensus: 1.7 WARP
A projected top-five pick in October, Smith saw his stock tumble after an uneven freshman season that saw him limited by injuries to 17 games. When he did play, Smith made 40% of his 2-point attempts, putting him in the bottom 10 among NBA-bound draft picks in my database.
Setting aside Michael Porter Jr., who attempted just 30 2-pointers during his own injury-shortened college season, 3-point specialist Devonte' Graham is the most notable success story from this group. Whoever drafts Smith will be hoping that he can replicate his pre-NCAA success at the EYBL level, where he rated better than both Miller and Hendricks.
19. Colby Jones
Xavier
SG
Top 100: 28
Stats: No. 15
Consensus: 1.5 WARP
Jones will be an interesting data point in the importance of college free throw shooting to projecting NBA 3-point success. After hitting 30% of his 3s in his first two seasons at Xavier, Jones jumped to 38% last year but hit a career-low 65% at the foul line. Although Jones is a well-rounded ball handler and defender, he probably needs to be at least an average shooter to be a valuable NBA contributor.
20. Noah Clowney
Alabama
F/C
Top 100: No. 21
Stats: No. 26
Consensus: 1.3 WARP
Don't let Clowney's 49% field-goal percentage trick you. He's a high-percentage finisher (67% on 2s) who was forced to take nearly as many 3s (which he shot at a 28% clip) as 2s playing power forward at Alabama alongside Charles Bediako. NBA floor spacing should help Clowney's efficiency. At the same time, he'll have a better chance of succeeding offensively if he can protect the rim well enough to hold up as a center on defense.
21. Kris Murray
Iowa
F
Top 100: No. 25
Stats: No. 25
Consensus: 1.2 WARP
Playing nearly the same role in which his twin brother Keegan starred before being drafted No. 4 overall last June, Kris more than doubled his scoring average to 20.2 PPG. Kris doesn't project as quite as good a shooter as his brother (35% on 3s, 70% on free throws for his career as compared to 37% and 75%). He also didn't provide as much impact as a shot-blocker. Still, given Keegan was an All-Rookie first-team pick, there's plenty of room for Kris to be a useful NBA player in his own right.
22. Jordan Walsh
Arkansas
F
Top 100: No. 39
Stats: No. 17
Consensus: 1.2 WARP
Walsh's EYBL performance -- fourth-best among players in this year's draft -- is propping up his stats-only projection. At Arkansas, Walsh wasn't as impactful as a rebounder or playmaker, though his strong steal rate did carry over. The big question is whether Walsh can score efficiently given his 51% shooting on 2s and 28% shooting on 3s.
23. Kobe Bufkin
Michigan
G
Top 100: No. 18
Stats: No. 32
Consensus: 1.2 WARP
Since debuting in 1996, the late Kobe Bryant has been the only "Kobe" in NBA history. Now, Bufkin is poised to become the first player named after Bryant (or not?) to follow him to the NBA. After averaging just 12.7 PPG through the 2022 portion of the 2022-23 campaign, Bufkin boosted that to 14.8 PPG starting with conference play to leap up draft boards.
24. Marcus Sasser
Houston
G
Top 100: No. 37
Stats: No. 20
Consensus: 1.2 WARP
At 6-foot-1, Sasser played more off the ball than on it at Houston, which may explain why scouts don't seem as high on him as his statistical projection suggests. Sasser was a 40% 3-point shooter his last two seasons, and he plays bigger than his height with strength and toughness.
25. Terquavion Smith
North Carolina State
PG
Top 100: No. 41
Stats: No. 21
Consensus: 1.0 WARP
Instead of building on the buzz he had coming out of the NBA draft combine as a freshman, Smith took a step back as a sophomore. He showed more playmaking chops in a lead ballhandling role, nearly doubling his assists per game, but scored less efficiently and left questions about his shot selection. Smith still projects well thanks to his volume shot creation, which looks ideal for a bench scorer role in the NBA.
26. Jaime Jaquez Jr.
UCLA
F/G
Top 100: No. 30
Stats: No. 28
Consensus: 1.0 WARP
The shooting hasn't yet come for Jaquez, who hit 32% of his 3s as a senior and 33% for his career, but it's easy to like everything else about his game. A tough rebounder and defender, Jaquez also has the lowest projected turnover rate of anyone in this year's projections.
27. Bilal Coulibaly
Metropolitans 92
F/G
Top 100: No. 11
Stats: No. 49
Consensus: 1.0 WARP
One of the younger players in the draft, Coulibaly's 2023 season was similar to 2022 lottery pick Ousmane Dieng in terms of rapid development. A bit player for Metropolitans 92 in the fall -- he played double-digit minutes just once in 2022 -- Coulibaly has emerged as a key starter in time for their playoff run, giving scouts watching Wembanyama a long look at him. Statistically, there's a long way to go, particularly as a shooter. Coulibaly has shot 14-of-31 on 3s, but his 60% foul shooting seems more telling.
28. Julian Phillips
Tennessee
SF
Top 100: No. 34
Stats: No. 30
Consensus: 0.9 WARP
An afterthought at times on a veteran-laden Tennessee team, Phillips will nonetheless likely be the only Vol drafted after his lone season. He'll have to improve his 24% 3-point shooting to contribute in the NBA.
29. Jalen Slawson
Furman
SF
Top 100: No. 72
Stats: No. 22
Consensus: 0.8 WARP
Slawson's mid-major skill set seems far more likely to translate to the NBA. As a 6-foot-7 forward, he did it all for the SoCon champs, leading the team in rebounding, steals and blocks per game and finishing second in both scoring and assists. Slawson had 19 points, 10 rebounds and four assists as Furman upset Virginia in the opening round of the NCAA tournament.
30. Jaylen Clark
UCLA
G/F
Top 100: No. 53
Stats: No. 26
Consensus: 0.8 WARP
Clark's 11.5 box plus-minus rating ranked sixth among college basketball regulars last season, per Sports-Reference.com. That was owed largely to Clark's eye-popping 2.6 steals per game, tied for most among major-conference players. The NABC Defensive Player of the Year, Clark must still develop as a shooter after hitting a career-high 33% of his 3-point attempts in his third and final season at UCLA.
