NBA post-lottery Mock Draft 2023: Wembanyama goes No. 1 to Spurs; Henderson to Hornets
The 2023 NBA Draft Lottery has come and gone, with the San Antonio Spurs winning the No. 1 overall pick. They are the significant winners of the night and will have the opportunity to select generational French prospect Victor Wembanyama, a true franchise player whose presence will alter the trajectory of the team moving forward.
The Charlotte Hornets moved up to No. 2, positioning them in all likelihood to take either Alabama wing Brandon Miller or G League Ignite guard Scoot Henderson. The Portland Trail Blazers will pick third, a big result that gives them another elite asset to potentially help Damian Lillard. The Houston Rockets round out the top four.
From a tiers perspective, this class is interesting. There is a clear No. 1 with Wembanyama. On a consensus basis, teams see Henderson and Miller as the next two prospects in some order, although some evaluators will put Overtime Elite guards Amen and Ausar Thompson or even Villanova wing Cam Whitmore into that grouping from an upside perspective. Beyond that group of six, there is another group of five or six players seen as extremely likely to be taken in the lottery, and then another group of eight to 10 players seen as very likely to be first-round picks. Beyond those 20 to 22 players, the back-third of the first round is considered wide open, with real potential for many players to move in and out through the pre-draft process.
A few other notes:
• Players who are maintaining their collegiate eligibility have until May 31 to make their final decision. If you don’t see a player here, it means I think it’s unlikely he ends up in the final pool, he hasn’t yet declared or he’s not quite there, talent-wise. The final player pool remains a bit of a moving target.
• Team needs are accounted for in this mock draft. Obviously. There is a fit section where I dive into that.
• Draft ranges remain a bit wide in this class for prospects. I expect I will get some calls from player agents with how wide I’ve set draft ranges for certain prospects. These are purposefully conservative. Very few prospects set in the top 35 have had interviews, meetings and visits with teams at this stage. And even if they have, they haven’t met with many. That process heats up after the NBA Draft Combine. It’s hard to have exact ranges on players in terms of legitimate team interest until that process gets into full swing. Agents and players do generally have a feel for where players will be taken, but these ranges will get much more specified the closer we get to the draft.
1. San Antonio Spurs
Victor Wembanyama | 7-4 center | 19 years old | Metropolitans 92
The Scout: The best draft prospect to enter the NBA since LeBron James. It’s that simple. Wembanyama is the epitome of a franchise changer. As a teenager, he is leading the French League in points, rebounds and blocks. It’s hard to overemphasize how amazing Wembanyama’s long-term potential is on both ends of the floor. He will immediately be the biggest, longest player in the NBA, which allows him to change the geometry of the court defensively. He has great instincts and recovery ability on that end. He’s doubling everybody else in the French League in blocks per game. But moreover, he is also a legitimate shot creator at center who can score off the bounce with creativity and knock down shots with ease off pull-ups or drives to the rim. He’s a terrific finisher inside because of his length and touch and is already starting to experiment with shots that could make him special such as some of the turnaround pull-ups, the fake-spin shimmies and even the weirdo floater 3s. He is a historic prospect, one well within the tapestry of past elite center prospects such as Bill Walton, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Hakeem Olajuwon, Patrick Ewing, Ralph Sampson, Shaquille O’Neal, Tim Duncan and Anthony Davis.
The Fit: Wembanyama fits every single team. He is the fit. He’s the player you build around. San Antonio has found some strong players in the latter half of the lottery and in the back portion of the first round, but the Spurs don’t have a star yet. Wembanyama slides everyone down a peg into roles that are more suitable. Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson can be young, high-level wings who don’t get the top defensive assignments. Wembanyama will be a tremendous fit next to Jeremy Sochan in the frontcourt, with Sochan as an all-around gap-filler who was productive as a teenage rookie. He’ll be able to be brought along slowly as a scorer as he continues to rework his shot. The Spurs got to transition beautifully from the David Robinson era into the Tim Duncan era and now perfectly slide into the Victor Wembanyama era.
The Range: No. 1.
2. Charlotte Hornets
Scoot Henderson | 6-2 lead guard | 19 years old | G League Ignite
The Scout: Henderson is an explosive playmaker who has been seen as the likely No. 2 overall pick behind Wembanyama all season. In many other drafts, Henderson would be the clear No. 1 pick. He’s going to be a difficult problem for defenses to solve from the first day he hits the NBA because of how well-rounded he is in ball-screen actions. He can pull-up and hit floaters, he can get all the way to the rim and finish with authority or touch, he can play slow or fast, and he can make high-level passing reads. On top of that, he’s going to force the action in transition and drive easy points that way, as well as be the guy from day one who sets the tone for your organization as the top dog on the team because of his competitiveness and drive. This is truly an elite, franchise-altering prospect. No. 2 is no consolation prize in this year’s class.
The Fit: I love the idea of putting Henderson in the backcourt with LaMelo Ball. It would create one of the most exciting, up-tempo attacks in the NBA with how good both players are at pushing pace. But more importantly, they complement each other well. Both have the ability to blend scoring and playmaking together, but Henderson tends to think more about the scoring side of the things, and Ball thrives as a creative decision-maker who can make high-level passing reads from any angle. Henderson’s elite midrange game would complement Ball’s 3s and layups approach. And I would bet Henderson’s overall competitiveness and attitude will really vibe with the intensity coach Steve Clifford brings. Don’t rule out Miller here, though. The team does have a significant need on the wing long term. This will be the swing point of the top five.
The Range: No. 2 to No. 4
3. Portland Trail Blazers
Brandon Miller | 6-9 wing | 20 years old | Alabama
The Scout: Miller was one of the best players in college basketball this past season. He averaged 19 points and nine rebounds and was even more dominant in SEC play. During conference play, he averaged 20 points while shooting 49 percent and 38 percent from 3. Miller showcased just about everything teams look for from big wing creators. He’s a terrific high-volume shooter, having made a high percentage from 3 on over seven attempts per game. He can handle the ball out of ball screens and string out mismatches, attack the basket and finish at the rim. Defensively, he’s a switchable player who isn’t quite an impact player on that end, but he’s not going to get hunted. In high school, Miller was also seen as something of a midrange maestro with the ability to rise up and knock down shots in the middle of the court. Around the league, Miller is seen as a potential high-end offensive weapon who can be a top-two option long term on a good NBA team.
The Fit: Obviously, the Blazers will be disappointed not to win the lottery, but Miller would be an awesome consolation prize. He’ll be able to step in immediately as a useful player next to Lillard if the Blazers continue to go down the road of building around their longtime superstar point guard. Miller’s floor-spacing should be able to get him on the floor early, and his shot creation would be a perfect fit next to Jerami Grant’s athleticism. Even if the Blazers do decide to go in a different direction, Miller is a perfect long-term running partner for Shaedon Sharpe on the wing, with Sharpe’s explosive athleticism complementing Miller’s skilled shot making. It works across the board. One note, though: The Blazers love to draft for upside. This is a front office, going back to when Joe Cronin was an assistant GM, that loves betting on youth. Their picks last year with Cronin in the top chair didn’t change that. Think Anfernee Simons, Sharpe, Jabari Walker, Greg Brown, Nassir Little and Zach Collins. All of these guys were teenagers when the Blazers took them. There are some hits and some misses there, certainly. But the value has exceeded the draft slot for the most part.
The Range: No. 2 to 4
4. Houston Rockets
Amen Thompson | 6-7 lead guard | 20 years old | Overtime Elite
The Scout: The first of the Thompson twins to go, Amen is the point guard of the duo. He’s an electric athlete out in space and in transition, where he can drive easy buckets as a genuine top one percent athlete in the NBA. He has a great first step and is an elite leaper and also has tremendous hang time and body control in the air. He attacks the basket aggressively. But he also is a very high-level passer and playmaker who can find his teammates from all sorts of angles and positions. Defensively, Thompson has some real mechanical issues to clean up, but his length and athleticism gives him all sorts of upside, and he already makes consistent plays on that end. He needs more experience making reads in half-court settings — he didn’t get a chance to do a ton of that with Overtime Elite, comparatively to other prospects. But his upside is enormous because of the pressure he puts on defenses.
The Fit: The Rockets end up here and get a perfect high-upside swing who would pair sublimely in the backcourt with Jalen Green. Thompson would up the competitive level of the team immediately because of his aggressive transition play and desire to be great. He plays hard and pushes the pace constantly. He fills an immediate need at the point guard position that has hampered them over the last couple of seasons with Kevin Porter Jr. running the show. Thompson might take a year to really lock in as he continues to develop as a half-court decision-maker, but this is the kind of swing that could transform Houston in a significant way long term. If he hits his ceiling, Thompson and Green have “best backcourt in the NBA” upside.
The Range: No. 3 to No. 6
5. Detroit Pistons
Cam Whitmore | 6-7 wing | 18 years old | Villanova
The Scout: Whitmore has ridiculous upside because he has an elite blend of explosiveness and strength. Coming in at about 230 pounds, Whitmore is a 40-inch vertical leaper who actually plays like he has one. He rises up through contact powerfully and throws down around the basket. But there’s more to it than that. He is a real shot creator who can knock down pull-up jumpers from behind the 3-point line. He has a real first step when attacking the basket. Defensively, he’s a very good on-ball defender with real switchability because of his strength and quickness. The main concern here is his overall feel as an offensive player. Whitmore had a historically low assist rate and consistently missed passing reads throughout the course of his time at Villanova. That’s where he needs to improve. But his ceiling is immense.
The Fit: The Pistons could have an incredibly fun core with Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey and Whitmore on the perimeter. Cunningham and Ivey would be perfect for Whitmore, two high-level ballhandlers and distributors who would allow Whitmore to focus on what he does best: Score the basketball. He’d be allowed to come along slowly as a passer and decision-maker and would be a tremendous transition threat with Ivey running the break. A pairing with Ivey would arguably give the Pistons two of the 10 most athletic players in the league. The Pistons are undoubtedly disappointed to fall to No. 5, but Whitmore would be a killer fit for what they’re building, and he fits perfectly with what Troy Weaver tends to value in terms of bigger, longer prospects with athletic tools.
The Range: No. 4 to No. 10
6. Orlando Magic
Taylor Hendricks | 6-9 forward | 19 years old | UCF
The Scout: Hendricks is the biggest riser of this draft class. He’s over 6-9 in shoes and has over a 7-foot wingspan. He’s an elite defensive player and has real athleticism. He slides his feet incredibly well as an on-ball defender and has real switchability. Off the ball, he’s very impactful as a weakside rim protector who can fly over in help situations and block shots. And offensively, Hendricks was very valuable. He averaged 15.1 points and seven rebounds while shooting 39.4 percent from the field on real volume. Hendricks need to improve as an offensive playmaker and ballhandler. But it’s easy to imagine Hendricks stepping into the NBA early and playing relatively early as a useful 3-and-D player while he continues to round out his game.
The Fit: The Magic love guys like Hendricks who are long, athletic and have high upside. On top of that, Hendricks actually fills a real need as a shooter for a team that really could use one. The team finished in the bottom 10 in the NBA in 3-point rate, and the Magic shot just 34.6 percent this season. They obviously have a lot of this player type already, but he’s a skill-level fit the team likely envisioned when they drafted Chuma Okeke as a valuable multi-positional player a few years ago. This is definitely the high-end of his range, but Hendricks starts getting in play here.
The Range: No. 6 to No. 14
7. Indiana Pacers
Jarace Walker | 6-8 forward | 19 years old | Houston
The Scout: Walker is about as well-rounded a forward/big prospect as you’ll find. He’s 6-8 with a 7-2 wingspan. He’s a terrific passer and playmaker, particularly as a short-roll weapon out of ball screens. Walker improved a bit as a shooter this past season, making 34.7 percent from 3, albeit on limited volume. But where he really makes his mark is on defense. Walker is a tremendous, instinctive defensive player whose reactivity and basketball IQ makes him a wildly impactful help defender flying all across the court. On top of it, he’s switchable as a man-to-man defender who can manage all but the quickest guards (and that includes sliding up onto centers because of his shredded 240-pound frame). There are some questions on how he’ll score effectively in the NBA if the jumper doesn’t come along, and that could resign him toward being more of a rotation player if it doesn’t happen. But Walker will help you win basketball games.
The Fit: The Pacers have a real need for defensive players. They were 26th in defensive rating this season despite getting nearly 2,000 minutes from an elite defensive center in Myles Turner. Realistically, they need guys who can play strong help defense as well as provide switchable, aggressive on-ball defense. Walker would be a strong start in this respect, and he’d be a strong complement next to Turner because of that ability to make plays and pass.
The Range: No. 5 to No. 12
8. Washington Wizards
Ausar Thompson | 6-7 wing | 20 years old | Overtime Elite
The Scout: Thompson is an elite athlete who impacts the game in a wide variety of ways. He’s a very strong defender who flies around in help as a good rim protector and playmaker in passing lanes. He’s a strong, technical on-ball defender. Offensively, he can really get out on the break and score, and in the half court, he’s a sharp cutter and driver of the basketball in straight lines. His passing is maybe my favorite skill of his, especially as a secondary ballhandler. As a finisher, Thompson has a terrific package of touch finishes and layups in addition to above-the-rim athleticism. The guy Thompson reminds me of most is Andre Iguodala, even down to the shooting questions that Thompson will have to work through early in his career. My bet is Thompson is an impact player on winning basketball because of how well-rounded his game is.
The Fit: The Wizards just need upside talents. It also helps that Thompson is a near perfect fit between Bradley Beal and Kyle Kuzma because of how well-rounded he is. He’d give the team a transition playmaker, a good passer who can occasionally actually run the offense and a defensive difference-maker. I’d be surprised to see Thompson drop out of the top 10, and this makes an awful lot of sense. One thing to note, though: The Wizards do not currently have a full-time general manager after firing Tommy Sheppard earlier this offseason.
The Range: No. 4 to No. 10
9. Utah Jazz
Anthony Black | 6-7 guard | 19 years old | Arkansas
The Scout: Black is maybe the smartest player in this draft class in terms of basketball IQ. He consistently makes the right play. Black averaged 13 points, five rebounds and four assists while shooting 45 percent from the field and is entirely reliable as a 6-7 point guard. On top of it, he’s a terrific defensive player and one of the best in the class at the point of attack while also being switchable because of his size and strength level. I buy Black making decisions at an exceedingly high level and being able to reliably attack both ends of the court.
The Fit: The Jazz get to reshape their roster now following the Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell deals. Danny Ainge rebuilt the Celtics roster with a lot of size on the wing and on the perimeter (think Marcus Smart, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Grant Williams and others). My bet is that they look for bigger wings and guards to build around, especially with where the NBA is going. Black fits the bill perfectly and would pair very well with some of the scoring guards on the roster.
The Range: No. 5 to No. 12
10. Dallas Mavericks
Dereck Lively II | 7-1 center| 19 years old| Duke
The Scout: Lively struggled to start the season, but by the end of it, there was not a more impactful defender in college basketball. He’s an elite rim protector who averaged 2.5 blocks per game this past season in 20 minutes. He defends ball screens well and can do so in a variety of different schemes. He can hard hedge and recover, he can drop, and he can play at the level. He’s mobile and runs the court very well. Offensively, he’s extremely limited right now, but Lively has immense tools with a 7-7 wingspan that portends potential to not just be a good defender but a great one.
The Fit: The Mavericks essentially have no long-term answer at the center position right now, and they desperately need rim protection and rebounding to pair with Luka Dončić and potentially Kyrie Irving. Lively would be a tremendous partner for both of them in ball screens on offense, and defensively, he can cover for them if they lose track of their players. This is probably on the early end of Lively’s range, but the fit is too good.
The Range: No. 10 to No. 20
11. Orlando Magic (via CHI)
Gradey **** | 6-8 wing | 19 years old | Kansas
The Scout: **** is maybe the best shooter in the class, a 6-8 freshman who drilled 40.3 percent of his six 3-point attempts per game. The list of high-major true freshmen in the last 30 years, per Sports-Reference, to average 14 points and shoot 40 percent from 3 while taking at least 200 3s is limited. It’s ****, Gary Trent, Kevin Durant, D’Angelo Russell, O.J. Mayo, Tajuan Porter and Jamal Murray. That’s a pretty great list, given that it’s five NBA starters and Porter, who was 5-7. **** profiles as a long-term NBA starter with real upside. He has some on-ball defensive concerns, but he has great hands and is smart rotationally in a team construct. He knows how to play.
The Fit: The Magic need shooting around Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, especially if they’re going to continue with a backcourt core of Markelle Fultz and Jalen Suggs. **** is an elite shooter. This is an easy one.
The Range: No. 7 to No. 14
12. Oklahoma City Thunder
Leonard Miller | 6-10 forward | 19 years old | G League Ignite
The Scout: I’m calling my shot on Miller. This is earlier than just about everyone will have him. But he’s a 6-10 forward who is a terrific, fluid athlete with unique body mechanics that allow him to get defenders off balance as he handles the ball as a driver or in transition. He’s an elite finisher with incredible touch, having made 67 percent of his shots at the rim. In 14 games from Feb. 8 onward, Miller averaged 20 points, 13 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game with one steal and one block. He shot 55.6 percent from the field, 37 percent from 3 and 82 percent from the line. He figured out the G League quickly last season, really his first season of high-level basketball. I think he has real upside long term, and I bet he rises as people see him throughout the process.
The Fit: The Thunder tend to draft guys with terrific positional size, strong basketball IQ and high-level character traits. Miller ticks all of those boxes. And he also fits incredibly well as an elite rebounder and attack-oriented player next to last season’s No. 2 overall pick Chet Holmgren. Holmgren’s elite defensive anticipation, shot blocking and floor spacing would pair nicely with Miller’s ability to pressure the rim. This would be one of my favorite potential fits in the draft.
The Range: No. 11 to No. 25
13. Toronto Raptors
Cason Wallace | 6-4 guard | 19 years old | Kentucky
The Scout: Wallace is one of those dudes you just trust to be a hooper. He gets how to play and impact winning basketball. He’s an elite defensive guard with incredible hands and disruptive hand-eye coordination. He’s extremely strong and can slide up the lineup because of how capable he is at getting his chest in front of players and cutting off their momentum. Offensively, you’d like to see more with how Wallace can create off the bounce. But he’s good enough in ball screens and is strong as a catch-and-shoot weapon. He suffered a few injuries this past season, so teams want to learn a bit more about those, but Wallace is a very trustworthy player.
The Fit: The Raptors have a lot of questions forthcoming in the backcourt. Fred VanVleet and Gary Trent Jr. can become free agents, and there is precious little depth behind them. The team needs to find more answers there, even if they envision Scottie Barnes as a potential primary creator long term. Wallace can play a bit on and off the ball, and I think he’s the rare one-and-done who figures to play early because of how impactful he is as a defender. He would give the Raptors some further flexibility in terms of their offseason decision-making.
The Range: No. 7 to 20
14. New Orleans Pelicans
Kobe Bufkin | 6-4 guard | 19 years old | Michigan
The Scout: I’m placing a bet that Bufkin ends up rising through the pre-draft process. He’s one of my favorite prospects, and the tape is quite strong. Over his last 12 games, he averaged 17 points per game in Big Ten play while shooting 52 percent from the field, 45 percent from 3 and 89 percent from the line. He also grabbed six rebounds, had three assists and about two steals. That’s the point in the year when he started to get more usage consistently. He averaged only 9.6 shots per game for Michigan’s first 18 games as the Wolverines used more Hunter Dickinson/Jett Howard sets. In those last 15, Bufkin took nearly 13 shots per game and got far more high-leverage opportunities. There just aren’t many holes in his game. He’s a great finisher and a good shooter from the midrange and 3. He makes high-level passes. He’s strong on the ball and can help defensively. He’s just well-rounded.
The Fit: The Pelicans could certainly use more young backcourt depth. They took Dyson Daniels last year. Bufkin profiles really well next to CJ McCollum and Daniels long term as a solid defender who mixes scoring and passing at a solid level. It’s also not impossible that the team looks to shore up some depth in the frontcourt as Jonas Valančiūnas continues to get older and Zion Williamson remains an injury risk. But there aren’t a ton of great options available in this regard at this point.
The Range: No. 10 to 25
15. Atlanta Hawks
Nick Smith Jr. | 6-4 combo guard | 19 years old | Arkansas
The Scout: Smith’s tape this year was not particularly impressive. But there is context behind that, as he dealt with a knee injury early in the season and was surrounded by a roster of non-shooters who stopped him from being able to attack the rim. Still, Smith shot just 37 percent from the field, 33 percent from 3 and put out some exceedingly poor defensive tape that actually resulted in him getting benched at times in the NCAA Tournament. Smith was a top-three recruit in the class last season and has real off-ball scoring creativity. His range is a bit wide. But I’m willing to bet that last season is a bit more of an aberration than people think.
The Fit: The Hawks took fewer 3s than anyone in the NBA this season on a per-shot basis and put very little pressure on the rim. Despite this, they were still a top-10 offense because Trae Young is that good of a creative force. With Bogdan Bogdanović’s injury history seeing him generally miss about 20 games per season and Dejounte Murray’s contract running out at the end of next season, it might make sense for them to look toward the combo guard market in this class, which is quite diverse in terms of skill set. But really, the Hawks can just take whoever they see as the best player available.
The Range: No. 10 to No. 25
16. Utah Jazz (via MIN)
Kris Murray | 6-8 wing | 22 years old | Iowa
The Scout: Murray isn’t quite his brother in terms of effectiveness. He’s not the shooter Keegan is, and he’s not quite as athletic. But he’s a 6-8, well-rounded wing who stepped into Keegan’s role at Iowa and averaged 20 points, eight rebounds and two assists per game. And across the league, teams continue to look for wings with real size and athleticism who can immediately step in and play. At 22 years old, Murray figures to provide genuine value within the first two years of his career as a rotation three/four with starter’s upside.
The Fit: The Jazz will use this NBA Draft to continue to build out their talent base following its trades of Gobert and Mitchell last offseason. They shouldn’t really have a specific type. The goal should merely be to acquire the best talent. Murray is an athletic wing/forward with size who would give them some interesting lineup flexibility in the frontcourt next to Lauri Markkanen and Walker Kessler.
The Range: No. 12 to No. 24
17. Los Angeles Lakers
Jordan Hawkins | 6-5 wing | 21 years old | Connecticut
The Scout: Hawkins has a case as arguably the best movement shooter in the class. Connecticut had him sprint off screening actions, using his pristine shooting mechanics and ability to stop on a dime to get open and can open 3s. He averaged 16 points and was a critical piece of the national champion Huskies, keying their perimeter attack with how much teams had to respect his gravitational force. Hawkins also improved a bit off the bounce this past season, becoming an impactful, effective attacker of closeouts. He works defensively, but this is where his lack of strength comes in. Hawkins is extremely skinny and will need to put on some real weight in the coming years to hold up on that end. But he’s an elite shooter who wants to play on that end. Those guys tend to work out.
The Fit: What are the skills that work best with LeBron James? Shooting and defense. Hawkins and his tremendous ability to space the floor would be about as perfect a fit for the Lakers as you can imagine. The Lakers are contenders again after the moves they made at the deadline this year. Continuing to add players who work well with James is a sharp strategy.
The Range: No. 10 to 25
18. Miami Heat
Keyonte George | 6-4 guard | 19 years old | Baylor
The Scout: George is a bit polarizing for scouts. Some love his craft as a ballhandler and playmaker. He’s very creative off the bounce and is able to play at this rare cadence that is hard to stay in front of. However, he’s also not necessarily the best decision-maker yet, and he’s not a particularly high-level athlete for a primary ballhandler. That led to some real inefficiency this past season. He shot just 37 percent from the field and turned it over three times per game despite playing for one of the best, most-well-spaced offenses in the country. Defensively, he has his positive moments, but they’re hit or miss. It’s hard to find creative guards who are this young and productive, though, so George is likely to hear his name called in the first round.
The Fit: The Heat have had to do a lot of manufacturing offense in the playoffs thus far through creative offensive sets that use their shooters and floor spacers to immense effect. Still, this was the 25th-best offense in the NBA this season even when Tyler Herro was healthy because they have very few creators off the bounce. George would at least bring that.
The Range: No. 10 to No. 25
19. Golden State Warriors
Jalen Hood-Schifino | 6-6 wing | 20 years old | Indiana
The Scout: Hood-Schifino is a well-rounded, young prospect who won the Big Ten’s Rookie of the Year award this past season, carrying the Indiana perimeter while averaging 13 points, four rebounds and four assists. He’s also a very strong on-ball defender with real size for a ballhandler at 6-6. He’s shown great unselfishness and comfort in ball screens, with a penchant for knocking down midrange jumpers. However, he’s not a particularly adept shooter off the catch yet and will need some fine-tuning in that regard. If he can improve that and some decision-making questions, Hood-Schifino could get on the court a touch earlier than most one-and-dones. But the shooting needs to improve, as he made just 33.3 percent from 3.
The Fit: It’s three-fold. First, the Warriors tend to like well-rounded prospects who contribute in multiple capacities. Second, the team has tended to draft younger in recent years. All of Moses Moody, Jonathan Kuminga, Patrick Baldwin, James Wiseman, Nico Mannion, Alen Smailagić and Ryan Rollins were teenagers when the Dubs picked them, and Jordan Poole turned 20 one week before being picked. Speaking of Poole, the team needs to make a real decision on him this summer. But if he’s gone, there is a real question of ballhandling depth behind Stephen Curry. Hood-Schifino would tick that box.
The Range: No. 12 to 25
20. Houston Rockets (via LAC)
Dariq Whitehead | 6-6 wing | 18 years old | Duke
The Scout: A bet on Whitehead is a bet on the shooting upside he showcased this past season — making 42 percent from 3 — as well as the upside he’d showcased at the high school level. His tape at Duke was not that of a first-round pick. He couldn’t pressure the rim and struggled within a team construct defensively. But context is important. Whitehead suffered a fifth metatarsal foot injury in the summer, which extended into the preseason and kept him out of the team’s first three games in addition to missing valuable practice time. He had a follow-up surgery in May to repair the foot that apparently did not heal properly the first time. This had an enormous impact on Whitehead’s season, as he looked to be nowhere near the athlete at Duke that he was in high school when he was undeniably one of the best players in his class. This is a very difficult situation to judge, and because of the medical factor, his range is quite wide.
The Fit: The Rockets got this pick in a smart trade with the LA Clippers that saw them move up 10 draft slots into the middle of the first round in exchange for Eric Gordon. That allowed them to enter a different tier of player who will be available. Under the Rafael Stone regime, they have tended to take the best player available. I would imagine that will be the case at No. 20, as the Rockets are still far enough away from competing that it’s worth them just adding talent. Whitehead’s shooting skill could mesh nicely on the wing with Tari Eason in bench lineups as well, and his upside is a good bet for them.
The Range: No. 15 to 35
21. Brooklyn Nets (via PHX)
Brice Sensabaugh | 6-6 wing | 19 years old | Ohio State
The Scout: Few freshmen in college basketball were as productive this past season as Sensabaugh, averaging 16 points while shooting 48 percent from the field, 40 percent from 3 and 83 percent from the line. Beyond that, he’s a terrific shot creator who is excellent at separating just enough and really sharp as a tough-shot maker. So what is the concern? First, Sensabaugh struggled a bit after teams started to key on him as the first option. Over his final 12 games, he shot just 44 percent from the field and 28 percent from 3. He also struggled defensively, and teams routinely attacked him. Still, Sensabaugh is a remarkable prospect as a scorer. Over the last 30 years in college hoops, only seven other freshmen averaged 16 points while shooting 48 percent from the field and 40 percent from 3. The only one who wasn’t a first-round pick was Jason Kapono, and he went No. 31.
The Fit: The Nets need offensive players. More than anything, they need creators who can actually get their own offense. I’m a little skeptical Sensabaugh will be able to do that from day one, but with his ability to create contact to separate then elevate over the top of defensive players with his high release point, the ceiling at least exists for him to be a valuable scoring threat. He would also provide a bit of insurance for Cam Johnson, who is a restricted free agent this offseason and figures to be incredibly popular because of his own elite shooting ability and the dearth of other options.
The Range: No. 15 to 35
22. Brooklyn Nets
Jett Howard | 6-8 wing | 19 years old | Michigan
The Scout: I’m a bit lower on Howard than most, but let’s mention the good first on why he’s projected to be taken in the first round. He’s a tremendous shot maker and shooter who has some of the best shot prep in this draft, which allows him to be a genuine threat off NBA-caliber actions. Michigan ran a ton of Zoom and Pistol actions, using him in dribble handoffs. The Wolverines ran him off screening actions regularly to try to get him loose. He’s a teenager who averaged 14 points and hit 37 percent from 3 on high volume and also showcased the ability to relocate and score from the midrange. Here’s the issue: Michigan was about seven points per 100 possessions better when Howard was off the court because he was such a negative defender. He can’t move in space and also isn’t strong enough now to guard down the lineup. He has a ways to go on that end.
The Fit: Brooklyn is in an extremely strange place right now and should be taking upside fliers on as many wings as possible. Rinse, repeat on the above “Fit” blurb for Brooklyn on how they need to continue to hunt scoring and shot-making upside.
The Range: No. 15 to 35
23. Portland Trail Blazers (via NYK)
Noah Clowney | 6-10 forward | 18 years old | Alabama
The Scout: NBA personnel on the team side love guys who are big, young, defensively-conscious and have potential to shoot. Clowney ticks just about every single one of those boxes. He played this entire season at 18 years old, he’s 6-10 with about a 7-3 wingspan, and he covers ground on the defensive end at a really high level. He rebounds. And he took over four 3-point attempts per game this past season. Now, Clowney did not make a ton of those 3s (28 percent) but the shot is clean and workable. I’m not quite as high on him as the rest of the NBA, as I worry a little bit about him guarding in space with how high his hips are and how he is able to cut off guards. But he has great help instincts, and as his body fills out, I wonder if he can keep improving his mobility overall. He’s a first-round talent. He’ll just take some time.
The Fit: The Blazers adore these types of players, as mentioned above. Clowney would fit right into their tradition of taking younger players and giving them time and space to develop, regardless of what their impending decision is on Damian Lillard and if they continue to build around him.
The Range: No. 15 to No. 30
24. Sacramento Kings
Sidy Cissoko | 6-7 wing | G League Ignite
The Scout: Cissoko is a young player who improved in many respects over his time with the G League Ignite this past season. He’s a 6-7 wing with some point guard skills and an enormous 220-pound frame that looks like it will continue to age well. More than that, Cissoko thrived on the defensive end. Playing at a high professional level for the first time in his career, he was a switchable player who played with real physicality on that end. He’s quick and hard to power through because of his frame. He has good rotational instincts. Ultimately, Cissoko needs to fix his jumper, and that will be the key to his game. He averaged 11.6 points and mostly did his damage in transition, where he can be a bit of a freight train when he gets downhill. But he made only 31.4 percent of his 3s, and he’ll need to make some real mechanical tweaks in the next few years.
The Fit: The Kings need guys who profile long term as multi-positional defenders. De’Aaron Fox and Davion Mitchell were strong on defense this season but are too small to guard up the lineup. Kevin Huerter, Malik Monk and Keegan Murray aren’t difference-makers on that end, and Harrison Barnes hits free agency this offseason. Cissoko would be a nice developmental player for them to have in the system who could give them a real boost once he’s ready to play.
The Range: No. 18 to 35
25. Memphis Grizzlies
Colby Jones | 6-6 wing | 21 years old | Xavier
The Scout: Jones does a lot of things well. He averaged 15 points, six rebounds and four assists. He shot over 50 percent from the field and 38 percent from 3, including 42 percent on catch-and-shoot 3s. He can operate in ball screens, and he can lead the break as a distributor. On top of that, Jones is also a sharp defensive player who rotates well, can guard one through three on the ball and actually makes impact plays as a shot blocker and transition starter in passing lanes. Jones isn’t the best athlete on the planet, and that will play a role in where he’s picked. But Jones’ game profiles really well toward playing a solid NBA role.
The Fit: The Grizzlies will lose Dillon Brooks this offseason and certainly could use a well-rounded wing who can replace some of the impact that will depart with him. On top of that, Memphis tends to have a type it looks for in the draft. Most of the time in this range, it tends to be a bit of an older player who ticks a lot of boxes in terms of production. The Grizzlies love high-IQ, high-character guys who can dribble, pass and shoot. Think Desmond Bane, Brandon Clarke, Xavier Tillman, David Roddy, Jake LaRavia. Jones ticks those boxes.
The Range: No. 20 to 40
26. Indiana Pacers (via CLE)
Rayan Rupert | 6-7 wing | 19 years old | New Zealand Breakers
The Scout: Rupert is arguably the first NBL Next Star in Australia to make a positive impact on a winning team. He was terrific as an aggressive, defensive-minded wing for a New Zealand Breakers team that made the NBL Finals this past season. At 6-7 with a 7-3 wingspan, Rupert has immense upside on that end. He’s laterally quick and aggressive, plus has strong instincts in help defense for a teenager. How far Rupert goes will be determined by his offense. He’s an iffy shooter right now who isn’t quite strong enough on the ball to make consistent plays. He has good passing vision from growing up as a guard, but he doesn’t really have the handle or burst to pressure the defense yet. He’s a project, but the physical tools make him one with very real upside.
The Fit: The Pacers have multiple first-round picks and certainly can afford to take a bit of a risk on talent. The team has its point guard of the future in Tyrese Haliburton and a tremendous pressure wing in Bennedict Mathurin who lived at the foul line this season. Next, with Rupert, they could try to shore up the perimeter defense that was a borderline catastrophe at times this season.
The Range: No. 15 to 40
27. Charlotte Hornets (via DEN)
Gregory “G.G.” Jackson | 6-9 forward | 18 years old | South Carolina
The Scout: One of the more difficult evaluations in this class. Along with Whitehead, his range is as wide as any player’s. Some evaluators are really intrigued with Jackson’s shot creation. Starting the past season at just 17 years old, Jackson showcased some really intriguing tricks in his bag, using his advanced handle. He is a legitimate midrange weapon, and his jumper looks translatable long term. But his overall production was a really rough, and his tape this season was not that of a first-round pick’s. He struggled immensely on defense and was among the worst passers and decision-makers in college hoops this season (averaging just 0.8 assists versus 2.7 turnovers with a ton of difficult, contested shots that acted in a similar effect to the turnovers). There are also some real questions about his maturity: His on-court body language was poor, and he publicly questioned his coaching staff on Instagram Live earlier this season. Jackson is clearly talented, though, and the context of his season is incredibly important to keep in mind with just how young he was.
The Fit: Under the Jordan regime, the Hornets tend to either draft guys who produced at an exceedingly high level (think P.J. Washington, Cody Martin, Cody Zeller, Kemba Walker, etc.), or who are really young with high-level tools (think J.T. Thor, Bryce McGowens, Kai Jones, others). And over the last few years, they’ve actually tended to be willing to draft the latter more than the former, especially outside of the lottery. Jackson would be intriguing as a talent bet who largely fits their modus operandi.
The Range: No. 15 to 45
28. Utah Jazz (via PHI)
Max Lewis | 6-7 wing | 20 years old | Pepperdine
The Scout: Lewis was one of the true breakout prospects of the first half of the 2022-23 college season because of his length, athleticism and shot-creation prowess. Lewis looked at times like a potential lottery pick as a 6-7 wing with about a 7-foot wingspan that was making 3s at around the 40 percent mark. But as the season wore on, we saw some further flaws. Teams began to sell out to stop him, and his production suffered. Over his final 12 games, he shot 37 percent from the field and 24 percent from 3 while turning it over nearly four times per game. Still, over the totality of the season, we’re talking about a toolsy shot maker who averaged 17 points, six rebounds and three assists. He has a lot of work to do on the defensive end, and that will matter. But these guys tend to get picked, even if front offices are generally a bit more polarized on Lewis than people think.
The Fit: The Jazz have three first-round picks, and Ainge and Zanik seemed to reference valuing college offensive production at a high level in their postseason press conference, as well as a desire to add shooting and defense to the roster for next season. I buy Lewis as a shooter, and at this stage of the draft, it’s exceedingly difficult to add both of those in a single player. The Jazz should continue to look to fill out wing and guard depth, given that their frontcourt of the future looks set with Markkanen and Kessler.
The Range: No. 20 to 45
29. Indiana Pacers (via BOS)
James Nnaji | 6-10 big | Barcelona
The Scout: Nnaji is a developmental big with prodigious tools. He is 6-11 with an enormous 7-5 wingspan and is one of the few players in this class outside of Wembanyama who will have plus size for the NBA center position. He’s an awesome vertical athlete who is an elite catch-and-finish player around the basket because of his catch radius and hands. Defensively, he’s pretty OK in drop coverage for a player who is still young in the game. And the tools for contesting around the basket are terrific. He hasn’t been wildly productive this season while playing on a loaded Barcelona team, but teams are intrigued by any big this big, this explosive and this coordinated.
The Fit: The Pacers’ third pick of the first round, Nnaji would represent an interesting potential developmental option in the middle. As a rebuilding team with an actual option at the center position already in Turner, they can afford to be patient with Nnaji as he develops the intricacies of his game. The team does still have incredibly athletic 2021 first-round pick Isaiah Jackson on the roster as a developmental big, but he has been a bit too hit or miss because of strength issues on the interior and technique issues on the perimeter (he is very jumpy and overaggressive). Year Three will be a make-or-break year, potentially, for Jackson. So it might make sense to have an option in the fold beyond him.
The Range: No. 20 to 40
30. LA Clippers (via MIL)
Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 6-7 guard | UCLA
The Scout: I’m betting Jaquez has a strong pre-draft workout circuit. He’ll impress in team meetings and will likely perform well when he goes into competitive settings because of his experience and skill level as well as his two-way prowess. Jaquez can create his own shot, defends well within a team construct and is the kind of player who will lift the energy and intensity of those around him. He’s a four-year player at UCLA who was an All-American this past season on the wing, helping to turn around a UCLA program under new coach Mick Cronin when he took over back in 2019 with his talent and leadership.
The Fit: The Clippers tend to love guys with what they define as “Clipper DNA.” These guys, by and large, tend to be extremely competitive, tough and willing to put in effort on both ends. Jaquez needs to clean up his jumper off the catch, but as long as that happens, it’s easy to imagine him having a 10-year NBA career.
The Range: No. 25-45
Second Round
31. Detroit Pistons: Andre Jackson | 6-6 wing | Connecticut
32. Indiana Pacers: Marcus Sasser | 6-2 guard | 22 years old | Houston
33. San Antonio Spurs (via HOU): Bilal Coulibaly | 6-7 wing | Metropolitans 92
34. Charlotte Hornets: Jalen Wilson | 6-8 wing | Kansas
35. Boston Celtics (via POR): Bobi Klintman | 6-10 wing | Wake Forest
36. Orlando Magic: Kobe Brown | 6-8 wing | Missouri
37. Oklahoma City (via WAS): Julian Phillips | 6-8 wing | Tennessee
38. Sacramento Kings (via IND): Julian Strawther | 6-7 wing | 21 years old | Gonzaga
39. Charlotte Hornets (via UTA): Terrence Shannon Jr. | 6-6 wing | Illinois
40. Denver Nuggets (via DAL): Adem Bona | 6-10 big | UCLA
41. Charlotte Hornets (via OKC): Terquavion Smith | 6-4 guard | NC State
42. Washington Wizards (via CHI): Kevin McCullar Jr. | 6-6 wing | Kansas
43. Portland Trail Blazers (via ATL): Arthur Kaluma | 6-7 wing | Creighton
44. San Antonio Spurs (via TOR): Brandin Podziemski | 6-5 wing | Santa Clara
45. Memphis Grizzlies (via MIN): Ryan Kalkbrenner | 7-1 center | Creighton
46. Atlanta Hawks (via NOP): Jaylen Clark | 6-5 wing | UCLA
47. Los Angeles Lakers: Ben Sheppard | 6-6 wing | Belmont
48. LA Clippers: Jordan Walsh | 6-7 wing | Arkansas
49. Cleveland Cavaliers (via GSW): Olivier-Maxence Prosper | 6-8 wing | Marquette
50. Indiana Pacers (via MIA): Amari Bailey | 6-5 wing | UCLA
51. Brooklyn Nets: Omari Moore | 6-5 wing | San Jose State
52. Phoenix Suns: Jordan Miller | 6-7 wing | Miami (Fla.)
53. Minnesota Timberwolves (via NYK): Judah Mintz | 6-3 guard | Syracuse
54. Sacramento Kings: Trayce Jackson-Davis | 6-9 big | Indiana
55. Indiana Pacers (via CLE): DaRon Holmes | 6-10 big | Dayton
56. Memphis Grizzlies: Adama Sanogo | 6-10 big | Connecticut
57. Washington Wizards (via BOS): Adam Flagler | 6-3 guard | Baylor
58. Milwaukee Bucks: Mouhammed Gueye | 6-11 big | Washington State
(Philadelphia and Chicago have forfeited picks due to free-agency tomfoolery and shenanigans)