2025 NBA Draft Thread

That's gotta be Nique's grandson right?

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Which Duke basketball freshmen will leave for the NBA, and who will come back?

Take it straight from an NBA scout:

“This Duke team is just really tough to evaluate.”

That scout — who, like the rest of the sources in this story, was granted anonymity because NBA personnel are not authorized to comment on college players — isn’t alone. With Duke having wrapped up its regular season on Saturday, with a 62-57 win over North Carolina, there’s a solid body of work for evaluators to sift through. And while their opinions will certainly change in the next month, as conference tournament play unfolds and teams go on runs in March, it’s important to understand where the Blue Devils’ prospects stand at present.

Because opinions vary.

In speaking to several NBA scouts and decision-makers over the last week, only two sentiments were consistent across the board:

• In the NIL era, Duke players on the fringe of declaring early could — and arguably, should — be more inclined to return to school and improve their skills (and therefore, their draft status).

• Because of that, and what is seen as a less impressive 2024 draft class, Duke should have the opportunity to return multiple freshmen contributors.

But who?

That’s the big question, although the line between expected departures and returnees is already starting to be drawn. In many ways, that’s a good thing for Duke at a program level. Jon Scheyer told The Athletic recently he’s prioritizing experience moving forward; that isn’t to say Duke won’t still recruit elite, top-10 talents who can go pro after one season … but it also would like guys of similar caliber who will stick around for multiple seasons.

This year’s class is just the first example of that dichotomy. So, a look at where each of Duke’s five prospects stands, in alphabetical order:

Kyle Filipowski
Opinions on Filipowski were as split for any of Duke’s prospects. Much of that centers around his positional fit, and what he is in theory versus reality.

“Filipowski is, to me, the guy that I like in terms of the year he’s had,” said one scout. “I know he hasn’t really shot it well, but Kyle’s very smart. He’s competitive. I like how he impacts the game on both ends of the floor, even if there’s small limitations athletically.”

That scout compared Filipowski, at the next level, to current Utah big Kelly Olynk.

Others, though, are less sold on the 7-foot freshman as a true stretch four.

“I don’t know quite the exact position for him offensively, because he can’t play with the ball in his hands (at the next level),” a second scout said, referencing Filipowski’s 3.6 turnovers per 40 minutes, “but that’s kind of what he does well. He’s not really a pick-and-pop guy. His shot looks fine, but it can get better.”

For the season, Filipowski is shooting 27.6 percent from 3 on 3.4 attempts per game. Despite his inside-out usage for the Blue Devils — he dominated North Carolina on Saturday, posting his 14th double-double of the season — that number doesn’t scream “stretch forward” to NBA evaluators, especially considering the line gets even farther back at the pro level. Some wondered whether Filipowski’s overall usage — easily the highest on the team, per KenPom, and in the top-75 nationally — was contributing to his poor outside shot.

“There’s times I like him, his size and everything. I say, alright, can he just be a stretch four?” a third evaluator said. “He’s borderline first round, maybe early second.”

In The Athletic draft expert Sam Vecenie’s latest mock, he had Filipowski being selected 27th overall.

Those same positional questions apply defensively, too. Playing alongside a true center in Dereck Lively II (more on him below), Filipowski has been forced to guard in space along the perimeter this season, with mostly positive results. But scouts question whether Filipowski’s average athleticism, coupled with not having the same size advantage in the pros that he has now, will make him vulnerable defensively. “He’s not elite by any means (guarding on the perimeter), but I didn’t think he was a liability. He was fine,” said the first scout. “And the physicality part, he’s no slouch. There’s nothing soft about him.”

Ultimately, Filipowski seems to be right at the crux of the two rounds, with a Duke run in March potentially being enough to push him solidly into the 20s. But given that uncertainty now, and the fact that only first-rounders receive guaranteed money, there seems to be growing buzz that Filipowski could realistically return to Duke for a second season. If he did, he would potentially enter the season as a preseason All-American for an expected top-15 team. Additionally, and as it relates to his NBA future, returning would allow him more reps from 3-point range, and raising that percentage from deep would do wonders for his stock.

“He is,” says the evaluator, “a puzzle.”

Dereck Lively II
The No. 1 recruit in the 2022 class, Lively has long been expected to be a one-and-done type player at Duke. And while he started the season slow, while adjusting to the physicality and strategy of the college game, he’s come on strong of late and showed the reason why he is still projected as a first-round pick.

In fact, there’s a solid chance Lively ends up being the first Duke player selected in this summer’s draft, if he declares.

“Lively has definitely, finally, helped himself a ton,” says one scout. “Getting a lot of chatter: rim protection, rebounding. He’s had some huge games.”

Defense is obviously Lively’s calling card at the next level, given his combination of athleticism and length. (He is 7-foot-1 with a reported 7-foot-7 wingspan.) He’s currently No. 3 nationally in block percentage, per KenPom, and averaging 4.9 blocks per 40 minutes. That doesn’t even factor in how many other shots he alters or deters altogether. And while that piece is notable — “NBA guys just ooze over rim protection,” the same scout said — Lively’s ability to defend in space also stands out. He might not be asked to switch one through five at the next level, like he is at Duke now, but his ability to hold his own in space — and perhaps most importantly, to cover ground in ball-screen coverages — helps his stock.

“He can be a defensive anchor, to some extent,” said another scout.

The larger question with Lively is offense. “He has no offensive game to me,” the evaluator said. After scoring two points against North Carolina on Saturday, Lively finished the regular season averaging 5.1 points per game, with only four contests all season in double-digits. He’s made five or more shots twice — although the fact that both of those games were in February is a sign of recent progress. Still, those scoring limitations are tough for some teams to swallow, especially when factoring in the already-diminished value of the center position in the NBA.

“You can get a backup center on the market, in free agency, every year. Like, a quality backup,” says the second scout. “The question will be, has he shown enough potential as a pick-and-roll defender, shot blocker, all that, that it makes sense?”

There isn’t consensus on whether or not he has, but there does seem to be a strong appetite for his defensive upside. Accordingly, Lively is expected to declare and should have first-round suitors if he does, albeit outside the lottery.

Mark Mitchell

At 6-foot-8 and 220 pounds, with a reported 7-foot wingspan, Mitchell has prototypical size for a modern NBA wing. You can’t teach those physical tools.

And yet …

“He needs to go back,” says one scout. “Otherwise, you risk getting stuck in the G League. To me, he’d be more like (in the pick range of) 40-60.”

Why? Because while Mitchell’s frame is seen as NBA-ready, his skills — especially offensively — aren’t equally as far along.

“Oh my gosh, love the body. Love the frame. Love everything about him,” the evaluator says, “but I just think the offense is subpar.”

As one of two every-game starters for Duke this season (alongside Filipowski), Mitchell has averaged 9.1 points per game — fourth-most on the team — while shooting 39.1 percent from 3 and 75.9 percent from the free-throw line. Those last two numbers, especially, seem to point to a player with some shooting touch, but scouts see a distinction between the raw numbers and Mitchell’s shooting stroke. His motion clearly needs work, even if it has been effective in spots this season. Additionally, Mitchell isn’t viewed as a strong handler or passer — he’s averaging 1.8 assists per 40 minutes — which further limits his offensive upside.

Other than his frame then, what do scouts like? A few things. First, his defense; Duke asks Mitchell to switch every position except center (and he’s even done that sparingly), and he’s thrived as both a perimeter and interior stopper. He’s committing 1.4 fouls per 40 minutes, per KenPom, which is No. 25 nationally and top-five amongst high-major players. That effectiveness, to many teams, projects to the next level. Mitchell might not be switching onto the smallest, quickest guards in the league, but his ability to be successful in multiple defensive situations is seen as a huge boost for someone who will ultimately be asked to be a role player.

“To be 19, when he goes in the game, he can impact the game without being a liability on defense,” said another scout. “To me, that is a huge feather in his cap.”

Mitchell’s motor and relentlessness are irrefutable. Duke is 13-1 this season when he hits double figures as a scorer. That’s because even without the scoring, his willingness to hustle, run in transition, dive for loose balls, and rebound are the sorts of role player responsibilities that come instinctively to Mitchell. His nickname, “Easy,” really does apply in terms of playing with him.

“He’s not a great passer yet, he’s not a guy you’re gonna trust putting the ball on the floor and shot creation, all that stuff,” the second scout continued, “but that’s not who he needs to be. That’s not what he is.”

Taken together, Mitchell is absolutely seen as a future NBA player … just, likely after some more offensive seasoning at the college level.

He, like Filipowski, falls into that swing category: someone who could go, but probably would be best-served long-term by staying. While scouts expected Mitchell to strongly consider the one-and-done route before this season, they now largely seem to expect the opposite.

Tyrese Proctor
Of all of Duke’s prospects, Proctor is the one NBA scouts see as most likely to return to college next season.

“If his range is mid- to late-second round,” one scout questioned, “why would he come out?”

It’s important to remember that Proctor — as Scheyer says frequently — shouldn’t be here right now; he reclassified last summer and arrived at Duke a year early, after the Blue Devils lost Wendell Moore Jr. and Trevor Keels to the NBA Draft. Also, coming from Australia, there was a learning curve for Proctor not just in terms of college basketball’s physicality, but also its rules. Yet in spite of those circumstances, this preseason, Proctor generated as much hype as any of Duke’s players; at one practice that was widely attended by NBA personnel, Proctor was viewed as the best player on the court.

“The star of the fall,” another scout said. “Offensively, when he’s confident and aggressive and being himself, he looks like an NBA player.”

The issue? For the first half of this season, Proctor wasn’t that guy. For the year, he’s hitting 30.2 percent of his 3s, and averaging a modest 9.2 points per game. And while those trends have reversed dramatically of late — especially since Proctor took over as the team’s lead point guard and Jeremy Roach shifted off-ball — teams factor in the full sample size.

Over the last 13 games, he’s averaging 10.3 points and 3.8 assists per game, while also hitting 38.2 percent of his 4.2 3-point tries per game. He’s been devastating in ball-screen situations, eating up drop coverage and making smart passing reads in stride.

“Beautiful looking shot, all the creativity and footwork in the world,” the same scout added. “But you’re gonna have people who just look at the stats who say, ‘He’s shooting 31 percent from 3, how is he a shooter?’”

Proctor has also made major strides defensively, although that’s tougher to quantify for a guard, and especially one in a Duke defensive system that doesn’t pressure the ball at nearly the same rate it once did under Mike Krzyzewski. Instead, Proctor has thrived by blowing up dribble handoffs, fighting through screens, contesting without ceding position, and being advantageous when steal opportunities present themselves.

“He’s had some better games lately,” the evaluator says, “and when he handles the ball and does more for them, I think Duke’s a better team.”

Basically, teams want to see Proctor be more consistent over the course of a full season, while also adding some strength to his 175-pound frame. Being 6-foot-5 and lanky means Proctor absolutely can fit in an NBA backcourt — either at point or as a combo, depending on which team you ask — but borderline consensus is he needs another year in college. In the long run, given the guard landscape in the 2024 class, that might not be a bad thing; one scout says he could even see Proctor sneaking into the lottery next summer, if his recent developments track for the entirety of his sophomore season.

Dariq Whitehead
Whitehead has been viewed as Duke’s top pro prospect since the summer, but injuries — both his broken foot in August, and his lower-leg strain more recently — have complicated that picture.

“When he gets to the doctors, that’s gonna be the big thing with him,” says the evaluator.

Aside from the injury concerns themselves, the time Whitehead missed cost him the opportunity to show off his full game and build consistency. Scouts who have been tracking Whitehead since high school — when he was a key piece of Monteverde (Fla.) Academy’s recent star-studded teams — said the player they’ve seen this season hasn’t necessarily matched up with the guy they knew previously.

“I liked him a lot in high school,” one said, “but it’s obviously been kind of an up-and-down year for him, and I thought he’d have more impact.”

Said another: “There’s nothing he can’t do, per se — but we haven’t seen enough of it.”

Known as a slasher in high school with strong defensive tendencies, Whitehead has been relegated to more of a spot-shooting role while working through his recoveries. The good news is, he’s thrived doing so, and become much more of a consistent shooter than teams previously believed he was. Over his last 10 games, per CBB Analytics, Whitehead has made 59 percent of his 3.4 3-point attempts per game, which ranks in the 97th percentile nationally. “He’s actually shot it pretty well,” the first scout said, “even if his (overall) numbers aren’t going to be great in terms of what he’s showing.”

Defensively, though, there have been some questions about Whitehead’s engagement, and for certain teams, about his motor overall. Given his physical frame — he’s listed at 6-foot-7 and 220 pounds — the thought was that Whitehead could be a tenacious on-ball defender, in a similar mold to Mitchell, but that hasn’t translated.

But because of his pedigree, how irregular his season has been so far due to injuries, and the role he’s been asked to fill at Duke, there is some grace with Whitehead’s evaluation process. For that reason, there’s still optimism he will be a first-round pick this summer; it’s not a guarantee he declares, but that’s the widespread expectation. He’s the perfect example, though, of someone whose stock could really benefit from Duke making a run in March. With the body, the shooting, the flashes of passing and handling and slashing, some teams just need a little more tape to be fully convinced.

“You see some signs, glimpses, where he hits some shots, shows that athletic ability, all of it,” the evaluator says. “He’s the one I think will be (picked) highest of all.”
 
Grant Nelson 20 points 22 rebounds tonight. 6’11” Junior for North Dakota State. His highlight reel was going viral for a minute. I think he could play his way into being a 1st round pick.

 


Utah Jazz NBA draft cheat sheet: 10 prospects to watch at tourney time

It’s March Utah Jazz fans.

Not only that, it’s March, and the Jazz are 31-34 on the season after a loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder, 129-119 on Sunday. The prospects of making a playoff appearance are becoming more distant by the game.

But, you know what comes with March? March Madness.

On Monday, the NCAA’s Championship week starts and Selection Sunday is six days away. Two days later, the NCAA Tournament begins. And because the Jazz are trending toward not making the playoffs, and because the Jazz have three first-round picks in this upcoming NBA Draft, don’t you want a cheat sheet on who to watch?

This is why we made one for you.

As of Monday morning, the first two picks for the Jazz fall at Nos. 12 and 18. But the Jazz have lost four of five and the upside of their first pick probably lies somewhere at seven or eight.

With that in mind, here are 10 prospects Jazz fans should keep an eye on this month. We tried not to include anyone projected above the top seven. So, there’s no Victor Wembanyama, Scoot Henderson, Amen Thompson, Jarace Walker, Brandon Miller or Cam Whitmore.

The prospects profiled are prospects the Jazz can possibly get between their first two picks. Ausar Thompson plays for Overtime Elite, so while he is profiled here, you won’t see him in March Madness, or in championship week.

If you are a Jazz fan, which one of these prospects would you like to see your team draft? Ages listed are as of draft day (June 22).

Anthony Black | 6-7 guard | 19 years old | Arkansas

Strengths: More than any current realistic target, Black is the best player and fit for the Jazz right now. Utah is going to go into the offseason looking for a point guard, and Black is probably the third best point guard in the draft, behind Henderson and Amen Thompson. He’s a lot like Oklahoma City point guard Josh Giddey, except he is probably a better athlete and defender. He gets into the lane off the dribble with ease and he makes high level reads when he gets there. He has ideal positional size, and his body is filled out enough even at his age that he can step in right away and play real NBA minutes.

Defensively, he’s terrific at the point of attack, but also in help defense. He’s a very good rebounder for a point guard, and he just has a presence about him that galvanizes a team. He’s a good enough player right now that he could probably step in and play rotation minutes for the Jazz instantly.

Weaknesses: Black isn’t a great shooter. That’s about the only thing he currently doesn’t do at a high level. If he did, he’d probably be a lock to go in the top five of the draft. It says a lot about the other things he does well that Black might even sneak beyond that top seven threshold for the Jazz with a few good workouts and interviews once the pre-draft process starts. Simply put, you win big with people like Anthony Black. Guys who can do a lot of almost everything and do it at a high level.

Ausar Thompson | 6-7 wing | 20 years old | Overtime Elite

Strengths: The other half of the Thompson twins, Ausar possesses much of the same characteristics that his brother Amen does. So, what’s the difference? Why is Amen projected top three and Ausar projected lower in the lottery? Amen does what he does as a point guard and 6-foot-8 point guards with his kind of athleticism, passing and ballhandling skill don’t come along every day, which makes the lack of shooting less prevalent. Ausar is a small forward. He’s a terrific passer and ballhandler and a monster defender and athlete.

But, in today’s NBA, the jumper is a little more important as a small forward. Ausar won’t have the same nightly size mismatch at small forward that Amen would have as a point guard. That said, Ausar Thompson is a terrific prospect in his own right. Should he end up with the Jazz, a frontcourt of Thompson, Lauri Markkanen and Walker Kessler would be among the most athletic and versatile in the league on both ends of the floor. And if he ended up with the Jazz, Ausar Thompson would immediately be one of the best athletes in franchise history. That’s how elite the Thompson twins are athletically.

Weaknesses: As talked about above, Ausar Thompson has a lonnnngggggg way to go shooting the basketball. This isn’t Anthony Black, who’s jumper simply needs to fall more often. Thompson’s jumper almost needs a complete overhaul. It says something about Thompson twins’ athleticism and defense that they are projected where they are, especially in the NBA where if you can’t shoot, you generally have a difficult time making an impact in the league. Teams are going to have to figure out how hard Thompson wants to work to correct the flaws in his game. If the jumper ever comes around, coupled with his other strengths, Thompson’s ceiling increases dramatically. As it is, Thompson is capable of impacting a game in multiple ways with his defense, passing and athleticism.

Cason Wallace | 6-4 guard | 19 years old | Kentucky

Strengths: Wallace is a terrific perimeter defender; maybe the best perimeter defender in this draft. He’s similar to Boston Celtics guard Marcus Smart in this way. He’s not as broad or strong as Smart, but he has a similar dogged mentality when guarding at the point of attack. Where he is unique is that some guards are really good defenders on the ball, but lack when it comes to team defense. Think Pat Beverley. Some are terrific team defenders, but don’t guard on the ball well. Wallace is not only good at both, but he’s also elite at both. The Jazz are begging for that kind of defense from their point guards, and Wallace brings that. He’s also a terrific shooter from beyond the arc and can create a bit off the dribble.

Weaknesses: When I look at Wallace, I see a 10-year NBA starting point guard but I’m not sure I see the upside of a star. He’s good off the dribble, but not dynamic off the dribble. He’s a little limited athletically, despite being above average athletically. But if you tell a team that you are getting a point guard with 10-year starting upside, Defensive Player of the Year upside and two-way upside, that team will tell you he’s worth a lottery pick. But the Jazz are coming into this draft with the idea of finding a star in mind. And that might not be Wallace.

Nick Smith Jr. | 6-4 combo guard | 19 years old | Arkansas

Strengths: He has the look of a potential offensive savant, one of those guys who can one day average 25 a night at the NBA level. He’s a three-level scorer. When he’s a willing passer, he’s tremendous. He’s terrific off the dribble. He has a pull-up game off the dribble that will remind you of Washington Wizards guard Bradley Beal. He is gifted offensively. Even in the cramped quarters of college basketball, Smith can get into the lane off the dribble whenever he wants. He has a high-level feel in pick and roll. He has a short memory and isn’t afraid of the moment. If he misses 10 consecutive shots, he is confident the 11th one will drop. That kind of confidence with his kind of talent is valuable to have.

Weaknesses: Smith’s body needs to develop further, so he might need a few years at the NBA level to gain the kind of strength that will allow him to maximize his skillset. His medicals are going to be important, too. Smith missed a chunk of this season with a knee injury. He has returned with seemingly no ill effects, so that may help. But, he’s going to have to prove that he can stay healthy. He may also have to prove that he can be a point guard, because at his size he becomes small positionally if he’s a shooting guard. That being said, when you watch him, it’s easy to see why he was projected in the top five at the beginning of the season. His natural talent level is high.

Gradey **** | 6-8 wing | 19 years old | Kansas

Strengths: Maybe the best shooter in the draft, and the epitome of a weapon shooter. He projects as a 40 percent 3-point shooter on true volume. He will shoot it in any way imaginable: catch and shoot, on the move, coming off screens, in transition and on second chance opportunities. He is fearless, which allows him to make big shots. His size and high release allows him to get shots off with ease. He reminds me a lot of Sacramento Kings guard Kevin Huerter. **** would give a team a ton of gravity and spacing, which holds value in and of itself. He’s a very good athlete, and he moves well without the basketball, which gives him multiple easy layups a night.

Weaknesses: **** has a long way to go defensively. He has the IQ to be a passable team defender, but his defense at the point of attack is, at best, lacking. He also isn’t great off the dribble. He can attack a closeout and get to his midrange. If the defense doesn’t improve and the ability off the dribble doesn’t improve, ****’s development may stall. But he’s such a shooter that even those things don’t improve, he’s going to be a productive player in the league for a long time.

Keyonte George | 6-4 guard | 19 years old | Baylor

Strengths: Very sound player offensively who scores at all three levels. He has made big plays and came into Baylor’s program and meshed right away with a high level veteran backcourt. He handles the ball well, is terrific in getting into the lane off the dribble and can finish at the rim. He’s crafty and projects to be one of those kind of guys that could get to the free-throw line a bunch by keeping defenders off kilter. He’s also proven to be a high-level passer.

Weaknesses: The fate of George’s ceiling may be tied to whether he can play at the point at the NBA level. He’s not the greatest athlete and a lot of his finishing at the lane is below the rim. If he’s a point guard, he has good positional size. If he’s a shooting guard, he has average positional size. What he proves to be positionally is going to have a gigantic impact on what kind of player at the next level he becomes.

Gregory “GG” Jackson | 6-9 forward | 18 years old | South Carolina

Strengths: Whew! The natural talent is … significant. He’s absolutely terrific off the dribble. He can create offense for himself at a level someone his size and age shouldn’t be able to do. He’s highly competitive and highly skilled. He is a high level shot maker who will make contested looks. When you watch his film, he’s someone that you would think should go in the lottery.

Weaknesses: Jackson may be the most polarizing player in the draft, and for good reason. He hasn’t defended at a high level. He hasn’t been efficient. He has shown multiple flashes of real immaturity. He hasn’t created well for his teammates. As a result, his draft stock is all over the place. My guess? He’s going to be a little like Patrick Baldwin, the current rookie for the Golden State Warriors. Polarizing all the way until draft night. The kind of organization that drafts him will be critical. He needs a stable environment to develop in.

Jalen Hood-Schifino | 6-5 wing | 20 years old |Indiana

Strengths: Hood-Schifino has become one of my favorite players in college basketball. He’s a skilled point guard, who can score and create at all three levels. He can shoot it with range. He has a nice floater in the lane. He has an assortment of finishes at the rim. He defends very well and does it across both backcourt spots. He is someone who makes his teammates better. He plays beyond his years and has made big plays for the Hoosiers all season. He’s got terrific positional size.

Weaknesses: He’s not the greatest athlete and he might prove to be more of a combo guard than a pure point guard. But, beyond that, his game doesn’t have many glaring issues. He’s one of the more well rounded players in the draft. Don’t be shocked if he becomes a riser in the pre-draft process.

Taylor Hendricks | 6-9 forward | 19 years old | UCF

Strengths: Hendricks is a terrific shooter for his size. Plays on top of the rim and scores from midrange as well. Defensively, Hendricks is a terrific rim protector, and stays in front of guards on the perimeter. For a natural power forward, these attributes make him a unique prospect. You don’t often get all of these strengths in a power forward. Surrounding Walker Kessler with the kind of shooting and length that Hendricks and Lauri Markkanen provide would make the Jazz a formidable frontcourt indeed.

Weaknesses: Can’t really create off the dribble, so he’s kind of 3-and-D at this point. How he improves on that will prove to be his swing skill and determine what his ceiling is as a player.

Jett Howard | 6-8 wing | 19 years old | Michigan

Strengths: At his best, Howard, the son of Michigan coach and former longtime NBA star Juwan Howard, his a terrific offensive talent. His ability to handle the ball creates separation. He is a very good shotmaker as well. He can be an initiator in pick and roll and he can go on scoring binges that result in huge games.

Weaknesses: The rest of Howard’s game really needs to round out. Right now, he’s simply a scorer. He’s not defending at a high level, nor making plays at a high level for his teammates. He’s young, so he has time. But he has to become more than someone who simply puts the ball in the basket.
 
Physically Bronny reminds me of Jaylen Brown.

Strong, athletic guard who has a herky jerky style.

I'd be very surprised if he turned out to be even close to that level of player though.
 


Which Duke basketball freshmen will leave for the NBA, and who will come back?

Take it straight from an NBA scout:

“This Duke team is just really tough to evaluate.”

That scout — who, like the rest of the sources in this story, was granted anonymity because NBA personnel are not authorized to comment on college players — isn’t alone. With Duke having wrapped up its regular season on Saturday, with a 62-57 win over North Carolina, there’s a solid body of work for evaluators to sift through. And while their opinions will certainly change in the next month, as conference tournament play unfolds and teams go on runs in March, it’s important to understand where the Blue Devils’ prospects stand at present.

Because opinions vary.

In speaking to several NBA scouts and decision-makers over the last week, only two sentiments were consistent across the board:

• In the NIL era, Duke players on the fringe of declaring early could — and arguably, should — be more inclined to return to school and improve their skills (and therefore, their draft status).

• Because of that, and what is seen as a less impressive 2024 draft class, Duke should have the opportunity to return multiple freshmen contributors.

But who?

That’s the big question, although the line between expected departures and returnees is already starting to be drawn. In many ways, that’s a good thing for Duke at a program level. Jon Scheyer told The Athletic recently he’s prioritizing experience moving forward; that isn’t to say Duke won’t still recruit elite, top-10 talents who can go pro after one season … but it also would like guys of similar caliber who will stick around for multiple seasons.

This year’s class is just the first example of that dichotomy. So, a look at where each of Duke’s five prospects stands, in alphabetical order:

Kyle Filipowski
Opinions on Filipowski were as split for any of Duke’s prospects. Much of that centers around his positional fit, and what he is in theory versus reality.

“Filipowski is, to me, the guy that I like in terms of the year he’s had,” said one scout. “I know he hasn’t really shot it well, but Kyle’s very smart. He’s competitive. I like how he impacts the game on both ends of the floor, even if there’s small limitations athletically.”

That scout compared Filipowski, at the next level, to current Utah big Kelly Olynk.

Others, though, are less sold on the 7-foot freshman as a true stretch four.

“I don’t know quite the exact position for him offensively, because he can’t play with the ball in his hands (at the next level),” a second scout said, referencing Filipowski’s 3.6 turnovers per 40 minutes, “but that’s kind of what he does well. He’s not really a pick-and-pop guy. His shot looks fine, but it can get better.”

For the season, Filipowski is shooting 27.6 percent from 3 on 3.4 attempts per game. Despite his inside-out usage for the Blue Devils — he dominated North Carolina on Saturday, posting his 14th double-double of the season — that number doesn’t scream “stretch forward” to NBA evaluators, especially considering the line gets even farther back at the pro level. Some wondered whether Filipowski’s overall usage — easily the highest on the team, per KenPom, and in the top-75 nationally — was contributing to his poor outside shot.

“There’s times I like him, his size and everything. I say, alright, can he just be a stretch four?” a third evaluator said. “He’s borderline first round, maybe early second.”

In The Athletic draft expert Sam Vecenie’s latest mock, he had Filipowski being selected 27th overall.

Those same positional questions apply defensively, too. Playing alongside a true center in Dereck Lively II (more on him below), Filipowski has been forced to guard in space along the perimeter this season, with mostly positive results. But scouts question whether Filipowski’s average athleticism, coupled with not having the same size advantage in the pros that he has now, will make him vulnerable defensively. “He’s not elite by any means (guarding on the perimeter), but I didn’t think he was a liability. He was fine,” said the first scout. “And the physicality part, he’s no slouch. There’s nothing soft about him.”

Ultimately, Filipowski seems to be right at the crux of the two rounds, with a Duke run in March potentially being enough to push him solidly into the 20s. But given that uncertainty now, and the fact that only first-rounders receive guaranteed money, there seems to be growing buzz that Filipowski could realistically return to Duke for a second season. If he did, he would potentially enter the season as a preseason All-American for an expected top-15 team. Additionally, and as it relates to his NBA future, returning would allow him more reps from 3-point range, and raising that percentage from deep would do wonders for his stock.

“He is,” says the evaluator, “a puzzle.”

Dereck Lively II
The No. 1 recruit in the 2022 class, Lively has long been expected to be a one-and-done type player at Duke. And while he started the season slow, while adjusting to the physicality and strategy of the college game, he’s come on strong of late and showed the reason why he is still projected as a first-round pick.

In fact, there’s a solid chance Lively ends up being the first Duke player selected in this summer’s draft, if he declares.

“Lively has definitely, finally, helped himself a ton,” says one scout. “Getting a lot of chatter: rim protection, rebounding. He’s had some huge games.”

Defense is obviously Lively’s calling card at the next level, given his combination of athleticism and length. (He is 7-foot-1 with a reported 7-foot-7 wingspan.) He’s currently No. 3 nationally in block percentage, per KenPom, and averaging 4.9 blocks per 40 minutes. That doesn’t even factor in how many other shots he alters or deters altogether. And while that piece is notable — “NBA guys just ooze over rim protection,” the same scout said — Lively’s ability to defend in space also stands out. He might not be asked to switch one through five at the next level, like he is at Duke now, but his ability to hold his own in space — and perhaps most importantly, to cover ground in ball-screen coverages — helps his stock.

“He can be a defensive anchor, to some extent,” said another scout.

The larger question with Lively is offense. “He has no offensive game to me,” the evaluator said. After scoring two points against North Carolina on Saturday, Lively finished the regular season averaging 5.1 points per game, with only four contests all season in double-digits. He’s made five or more shots twice — although the fact that both of those games were in February is a sign of recent progress. Still, those scoring limitations are tough for some teams to swallow, especially when factoring in the already-diminished value of the center position in the NBA.

“You can get a backup center on the market, in free agency, every year. Like, a quality backup,” says the second scout. “The question will be, has he shown enough potential as a pick-and-roll defender, shot blocker, all that, that it makes sense?”

There isn’t consensus on whether or not he has, but there does seem to be a strong appetite for his defensive upside. Accordingly, Lively is expected to declare and should have first-round suitors if he does, albeit outside the lottery.

Mark Mitchell
At 6-foot-8 and 220 pounds, with a reported 7-foot wingspan, Mitchell has prototypical size for a modern NBA wing. You can’t teach those physical tools.

And yet …

“He needs to go back,” says one scout. “Otherwise, you risk getting stuck in the G League. To me, he’d be more like (in the pick range of) 40-60.”

Why? Because while Mitchell’s frame is seen as NBA-ready, his skills — especially offensively — aren’t equally as far along.

“Oh my gosh, love the body. Love the frame. Love everything about him,” the evaluator says, “but I just think the offense is subpar.”

As one of two every-game starters for Duke this season (alongside Filipowski), Mitchell has averaged 9.1 points per game — fourth-most on the team — while shooting 39.1 percent from 3 and 75.9 percent from the free-throw line. Those last two numbers, especially, seem to point to a player with some shooting touch, but scouts see a distinction between the raw numbers and Mitchell’s shooting stroke. His motion clearly needs work, even if it has been effective in spots this season. Additionally, Mitchell isn’t viewed as a strong handler or passer — he’s averaging 1.8 assists per 40 minutes — which further limits his offensive upside.

Other than his frame then, what do scouts like? A few things. First, his defense; Duke asks Mitchell to switch every position except center (and he’s even done that sparingly), and he’s thrived as both a perimeter and interior stopper. He’s committing 1.4 fouls per 40 minutes, per KenPom, which is No. 25 nationally and top-five amongst high-major players. That effectiveness, to many teams, projects to the next level. Mitchell might not be switching onto the smallest, quickest guards in the league, but his ability to be successful in multiple defensive situations is seen as a huge boost for someone who will ultimately be asked to be a role player.

“To be 19, when he goes in the game, he can impact the game without being a liability on defense,” said another scout. “To me, that is a huge feather in his cap.”

Mitchell’s motor and relentlessness are irrefutable. Duke is 13-1 this season when he hits double figures as a scorer. That’s because even without the scoring, his willingness to hustle, run in transition, dive for loose balls, and rebound are the sorts of role player responsibilities that come instinctively to Mitchell. His nickname, “Easy,” really does apply in terms of playing with him.

“He’s not a great passer yet, he’s not a guy you’re gonna trust putting the ball on the floor and shot creation, all that stuff,” the second scout continued, “but that’s not who he needs to be. That’s not what he is.”

Taken together, Mitchell is absolutely seen as a future NBA player … just, likely after some more offensive seasoning at the college level.

He, like Filipowski, falls into that swing category: someone who could go, but probably would be best-served long-term by staying. While scouts expected Mitchell to strongly consider the one-and-done route before this season, they now largely seem to expect the opposite.

Tyrese Proctor
Of all of Duke’s prospects, Proctor is the one NBA scouts see as most likely to return to college next season.

“If his range is mid- to late-second round,” one scout questioned, “why would he come out?”

It’s important to remember that Proctor — as Scheyer says frequently — shouldn’t be here right now; he reclassified last summer and arrived at Duke a year early, after the Blue Devils lost Wendell Moore Jr. and Trevor Keels to the NBA Draft. Also, coming from Australia, there was a learning curve for Proctor not just in terms of college basketball’s physicality, but also its rules. Yet in spite of those circumstances, this preseason, Proctor generated as much hype as any of Duke’s players; at one practice that was widely attended by NBA personnel, Proctor was viewed as the best player on the court.

“The star of the fall,” another scout said. “Offensively, when he’s confident and aggressive and being himself, he looks like an NBA player.”

The issue? For the first half of this season, Proctor wasn’t that guy. For the year, he’s hitting 30.2 percent of his 3s, and averaging a modest 9.2 points per game. And while those trends have reversed dramatically of late — especially since Proctor took over as the team’s lead point guard and Jeremy Roach shifted off-ball — teams factor in the full sample size.

Over the last 13 games, he’s averaging 10.3 points and 3.8 assists per game, while also hitting 38.2 percent of his 4.2 3-point tries per game. He’s been devastating in ball-screen situations, eating up drop coverage and making smart passing reads in stride.

“Beautiful looking shot, all the creativity and footwork in the world,” the same scout added. “But you’re gonna have people who just look at the stats who say, ‘He’s shooting 31 percent from 3, how is he a shooter?’”

Proctor has also made major strides defensively, although that’s tougher to quantify for a guard, and especially one in a Duke defensive system that doesn’t pressure the ball at nearly the same rate it once did under Mike Krzyzewski. Instead, Proctor has thrived by blowing up dribble handoffs, fighting through screens, contesting without ceding position, and being advantageous when steal opportunities present themselves.

“He’s had some better games lately,” the evaluator says, “and when he handles the ball and does more for them, I think Duke’s a better team.”

Basically, teams want to see Proctor be more consistent over the course of a full season, while also adding some strength to his 175-pound frame. Being 6-foot-5 and lanky means Proctor absolutely can fit in an NBA backcourt — either at point or as a combo, depending on which team you ask — but borderline consensus is he needs another year in college. In the long run, given the guard landscape in the 2024 class, that might not be a bad thing; one scout says he could even see Proctor sneaking into the lottery next summer, if his recent developments track for the entirety of his sophomore season.

Dariq Whitehead
Whitehead has been viewed as Duke’s top pro prospect since the summer, but injuries — both his broken foot in August, and his lower-leg strain more recently — have complicated that picture.

“When he gets to the doctors, that’s gonna be the big thing with him,” says the evaluator.

Aside from the injury concerns themselves, the time Whitehead missed cost him the opportunity to show off his full game and build consistency. Scouts who have been tracking Whitehead since high school — when he was a key piece of Monteverde (Fla.) Academy’s recent star-studded teams — said the player they’ve seen this season hasn’t necessarily matched up with the guy they knew previously.

“I liked him a lot in high school,” one said, “but it’s obviously been kind of an up-and-down year for him, and I thought he’d have more impact.”

Said another: “There’s nothing he can’t do, per se — but we haven’t seen enough of it.”

Known as a slasher in high school with strong defensive tendencies, Whitehead has been relegated to more of a spot-shooting role while working through his recoveries. The good news is, he’s thrived doing so, and become much more of a consistent shooter than teams previously believed he was. Over his last 10 games, per CBB Analytics, Whitehead has made 59 percent of his 3.4 3-point attempts per game, which ranks in the 97th percentile nationally. “He’s actually shot it pretty well,” the first scout said, “even if his (overall) numbers aren’t going to be great in terms of what he’s showing.”

Defensively, though, there have been some questions about Whitehead’s engagement, and for certain teams, about his motor overall. Given his physical frame — he’s listed at 6-foot-7 and 220 pounds — the thought was that Whitehead could be a tenacious on-ball defender, in a similar mold to Mitchell, but that hasn’t translated.

But because of his pedigree, how irregular his season has been so far due to injuries, and the role he’s been asked to fill at Duke, there is some grace with Whitehead’s evaluation process. For that reason, there’s still optimism he will be a first-round pick this summer; it’s not a guarantee he declares, but that’s the widespread expectation. He’s the perfect example, though, of someone whose stock could really benefit from Duke making a run in March. With the body, the shooting, the flashes of passing and handling and slashing, some teams just need a little more tape to be fully convinced.

“You see some signs, glimpses, where he hits some shots, shows that athletic ability, all of it,” the evaluator says. “He’s the one I think will be (picked) highest of all.”

Duke team sorry af.


Idk what cats saw in whitehead.
 
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