2023 NBA mock draft: Are Duke's top prospects living up to expectations?
First round
1. Houston Rockets
Victor Wembanyama | Metropolitans 92 | PF/C | Age: 19.0
2. Detroit Pistons
Scoot Henderson | G League Ignite | PG | Age: 18.9
3. San Antonio Spurs
Amen Thompson | Overtime Elite | PG/SG | Age: 20.0
4. Charlotte Hornets (to Atlanta if 17-30)
Brandon Miller | Alabama | SF | Age: 20.1
5. Orlando Magic
Ausar Thompson | Overtime Elite | SG/SF | Age: 20.0
6. Oklahoma City Thunder
Nick Smith Jr. | Arkansas | PG/SG| Age: 18.7
7. Indiana Pacers
Jarace Walker | Houston | PF | Age: 19.4
8. Orlando Magic (from Chicago)
Keyonte George | Baylor | SG | Age: 19.2
9. Toronto Raptors
Cam Whitmore | Villanova | SF/PF | Age: 18.5
10. Washington Wizards
Anthony Black | Arkansas | PG/SG | Age: 19.0
11. New Orleans Pelicans
Gradey **** | Kansas | SG/SF | Age: 19.2
12. Los Angeles Lakers
Cason Wallace | Kentucky | PG/SG | Age: 19.2
13. Portland Trail Blazers
Kyle Filipowski | Duke | PF/C | Age: 19.1
14. Utah Jazz (from Minnesota Timberwolves)
Jett Howard | Michigan | SG/SF | Age: 19.3
15. Utah Jazz
Brice Sensabaugh | Ohio St. | SF/PF | Age: 19.2
16. New York Knicks (from Dallas Mavericks)
Rayan Rupert | New Zealand Breakers | SG/SF | Age: 18.6
17. Atlanta Hawks
Maxwell Lewis | Pepperdine | SF | Age: 20.5
18. New York Knicks
Kris Murray | Iowa | PF | Age: 22.4
19. Golden State Warriors
Taylor Hendricks | UCF | PF | Age: 19.1
20. Phoenix Suns
Jalen Hood-Schifino | Indiana | PG/SG | Age: 19.6
21. Miami Heat
Dariq Whitehead | Duke | SG/SF | Age: 18.5
22. Sacramento Kings
Colby Jones | Xavier | SF | Age: 20.6
23. LA Clippers
James Nnaji | Barcelona | C | Age: 18.4
24. Indiana Pacers (from Cleveland)
Gregory Jackson II | South Carolina | PF/C | Age: 18.1
25. Brooklyn Nets
Leonard Miller | G League Ignite | SF/PF | Age: 19.1
26. Houston Rockets (from Milwaukee)
Jordan Hawkins | Connecticut | SG | Age: 20.7
27. Memphis Grizzlies
Dereck Lively II | Duke | C | Age: 18.9
28. Utah Jazz (from Philadelphia)
Terquavion Smith | NC State | SG | Age: 20.0
29. Charlotte Hornets (from Denver)
Dillon Mitchell | Texas | PF | Age: 19.2
30. Indiana Pacers (via Boston Celtics)
Kel'el Ware | Oregon | C | Age: 18.6
Second round
31. Indiana Pacers (from Houston)
Marcus Sasser | Houston | PG/SG | Age: 22.3
32. Detroit Pistons
Jaime Jaquez Jr. | UCLA | SF | Age: 21.9
33. San Antonio Spurs
Noah Clowney | Alabama | PF | Age: 18.5
34. Orlando Magic
Sidy Cissoko | G League Ignite | SG/SF | Age: 18.8
35. Philadelphia 76ers (from Charlotte)
Reece Beekman | Virginia | PG | Age: 21.3
36. Oklahoma City Thunder
Andre Jackson | UConn | SG/SF | Age: 21.2
37. Sacramento Kings (from Indiana)
Keyontae Johnson | Kansas St. | SF | Age: 22.5
38. Washington Wizards (from Los Angeles via Chicago)
Coleman Hawkins | Illinois | PF | Age: 21.0
39. Toronto Raptors
Terrence Shannon Jr. | Illinois | SG/SF | Age: 22.5
40. Denver Nuggets (from Washington)
Bilal Coulibaly | Metropolitans 92 | SF | Age: 18.5
41. New Orleans Pelicans
Jalen Wilson | Kansas | SF/PF | Age: 22.2
42. Los Angeles Lakers
Emoni Bates | Eastern Michigan | SG/SF | Age: 19.0
43. Boston Celtics (from Portland)
Trayce Jackson-Davis | Indiana | PF/C | Age: 22.9
44. Memphis Grizzlies (from Minnesota)
Julian Phillips | Tennessee | SF | Age: 19.2
45. Charlotte Hornets (from Utah)
Tristan Vukcevic | Partizan | PF/C | Age: 19.8
46. Denver Nuggets (from Dallas)
Nikola Durisic | MEGA MIS | SG/SF | Age: 18.9
47. Atlanta Hawks
Ricky Council IV | Arkansas | SG/SF | Age: 21.5
48. Minnesota Timberwolves (from New York)
Adem Bona | UCLA | C | Age: 19.8
49. Cleveland Cavaliers (from Golden State)
Mouhamed Gueye | Washington State | PF/C | Age: 20.2
50. Phoenix Suns
Ryan Kalkbrenner | Creighton | C | Age: 21.0
51. Boston Celtics (from Miami)
DaRon Holmes II | Dayton | PF/C | Age: 20.4
52. Sacramento Kings
Matthew Murrell | Mississippi | SG | Age: 21.1
53. LA Clippers
Jaylen Clark | UCLA | SG/SF | Age: 21.3
54. Milwaukee Bucks (from Cleveland)
Julian Strawther | Gonzaga | SF | Age: 20.7
55. Brooklyn Nets
Kevin McCullar Jr. | Kansas | SF | Age: 21.8
56. Milwaukee Bucks
Zach Edey | Purdue | C | Age: 20.7
57. Memphis Grizzlies
Josiah-Jordan James | Tennessee | SF/PF | Age: 22.4
58. Boston Celtics
Oscar Tshiebwe | Kentucky | C | Age: 23.0
Note: The Chicago Bulls and Philadelphia 76ers forfeited a 2023 second-round draft pick.
Kyle Filipowski | 7-foot-0 | PF/C | Age: 19.2 | Duke | No. 14 in Top 100
Filipowski has been Duke's best player this season and one of the most productive freshmen in college basketball, carrying the team with his shot creation and clutchness in several key late-game moments.
At 22.5 points, 13.5 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.6 steals and 1.3 blocks per 40 minutes, Filipowski stuffs the stat sheet like no freshman we've seen in college basketball history, according to our extensive statistical database going back to the 1990s. Considering he's 7 feet and only 19 years old, Filipowski has a very high floor and a unique skill set.
Duke has started to regularly use him as an oversized ball handler in devastating 4/5 pick-and-roll sets with another big man, something that is tailor-made for the modern NBA with his ability to overpower weaker defenders to the rim, execute sharp pocket passes to the roller in full stride or hit pull-up jumpers.
Filipowski has hit an excellent 23 3-pointers in 22 games (something that only three other freshmen 7-footers -- Chet Holmgren, Lauri Markkanen and John Butler Jr. -- have done in NCAA history), as well as 77% of his free throw attempts, but NBA teams would probably like to see him improve on his 29% 3-point shooting. His form looks good, both with his feet set and shooting off the dribble, so it's likely only a matter of time until he finds more consistency.
While Filipowski's offensive fit in modern basketball is undeniable, his defense is where NBA teams have bigger questions. Filipowski's negative wingspan and just-decent lateral quickness limits his potential in this area to an extent. Still, his excellent technique, timing and smarts certainly give him a chance to eventually be very solid. Filipowski anticipates well, plays with strong intensity and has made big plays all season -- reading plays, reacting quickly, staying down on fakes and sliding with opponents to generate turnovers. He'll have some forgettable moments at times such as getting burned from a standstill or getting caught flat-footed off the ball, forcing him to foul. He doesn't have the length to be as much of a factor as a rim protector as you might hope for someone projected to play a good amount of center in the NBA, but for the most part, he has been much better than expected on this end of the floor.
After Victor Wembanyama comes off the board at No. 1, as expected, Filipowski has done an excellent job of positioning himself to be the next big man to hear his name called.
Dereck Lively II | 7-2 | C | Age: 18.9 | Duke | No. 24 in Top 100
Lively got off to a slow start after missing time in the preseason with a calf injury but is currently playing his best basketball of the season. The 7-2 18-year-old needed time to adjust to the physicality and speed of the college game, but he is starting to do a better job of asserting himself on both ends of the floor. Defensively, he's an absolute difference-maker with his mobility, timing and length, coming up with 12 blocks in his past 77 minutes of action and showing nice potential switching onto guards on the perimeter and containing off the bounce. He has been far more aggressive, using his size and reach to crash the offensive glass, and is a terrific vertical target rolling to the rim or cutting off the ball, averaging one dunk for every 11 minutes of action he sees, higher than any projected draft pick. He has shown some flashes of passing ability and made his first 3-pointer of the season last week against Georgia Tech.
Lively's frame is still a major work in progress, he's still very foul-prone and he is not the presence you might expect on the defensive glass or offensively outside of being spoon-fed for dunks, some of the reasons his stock dropped to the end of the first round after his slow start. Ranking second to last in per-minute scoring among college prospects in our Top 100, he would likely benefit from a second season at Duke, similar to how his predecessor Mark Williams needed time to hit the ground running. Progressing over the next six weeks and showing he's not as far away as initially feared from playing in a real NBA game is certainly possible, as he'll have a huge platform at his disposal with many high-profile games along with the ACC and NCAA tournaments.
Dariq Whitehead | 6-7 | SG/SF | Age: 18.5 | Duke | No. 26 in Top 100
Averaging just 8.4 points while shooting 39.7% from 2-point range, the lowest rate of any prospect in our Top 100, it's safe to say that this has been an underwhelming season for Whitehead thus far. Part of that is because of injuries, as he suffered a stress fracture in his right foot in late August that caused him to miss 2½ months of action before appearing to sprain an ankle last week, costing him two games and counting but has a chance to return on Saturday.
Even beyond the injuries, Whitehead has struggled to be effective. He has been unable to generate high percentage opportunities for himself or others in the half-court or open floor, not being able to turn the corner against better defenders, settling for far too many floaters and midrange pull-ups, barely getting to the free throw line and showing poor decision-making, posting more turnovers than assists. His lack of explosiveness was noted in high school but has been much more problematic against higher-level competition, and his best moments offensively have come when he takes and makes difficult shots from the perimeter, something he's capable of doing (37% from 3) despite being an elevation shooter who at times releases the ball on the way down thanks to his strong shot-making prowess.
Defensively, Whitehead has had far more success, using his solid frame, long arms and high intensity level to make an impact chasing opponents around screens, closing out on the perimeter and executing his team's game plan.
NBA teams are struggling to get a handle on how to evaluate Whitehead as they don't see the same upside his lofty high school recruiting ranking indicates because of his just-average physical tools and lack of productivity. The fact that he's one of the youngest players in this draft, not turning 19 until August, and shows flashes of 3-and-D potential with some occasional playmaking chops does give him something to build on as he gets healthy and hopefully continues to progress as his freshman year evolves, but scouts say they want to see a lot more from him in the next month-plus.
Cam Whitmore | 6-7 | SF | Age: 18.5 | Villanova | No. 8 in Top 100
A broken thumb suffered in early October caused Whitmore to miss the first seven games of the season, one reason he has struggled to live up to his billing as the Big East preseason freshman of the year since returning from the two-month absence. Villanova has sputtered to a 4-7 start in conference play, with a 10-12 record that will likely result in only the team's second missed NCAA tournament appearance since 2004.
Whitmore hasn't been able to find much consistency, especially on the defensive end, where the game simply moves too fast for him currently. He has been much further behind on this end of the floor than most anticipated considering his chiseled frame, strong mobility and explosiveness; sporting a surprisingly casual demeanor, very poor technique off the ball, and a distinct lack of intensity that causes him to be out of position constantly. Opposing teams have targeted him relentlessly off screens and in pick and roll and have found considerable success in the process.
Offensively, Whitmore has shown excellent flashes of shot-making prowess, throwing in pull-up jumpers to punish unders, deep jab-step 3-pointers and some ability to hit difficult stepbacks that hint at his impressive scoring instincts. He's shooting 37% from 3 and 71% at the line.
As a shot creator, Whitmore has found mixed results, posting three times as many turnovers as assists and rarely getting to the free throw line with just 13 attempts in 11 Big East games thus far. He relies heavily on his frame to bully his way through opponents but has really struggled to handle weakside rotations and has shown no sign of a midrange or floater game when defenses load up on his drives, combined with limited craft around the rim.
It hasn't helped how dysfunctional Villanova's offense has looked this season, with nothing resembling a point guard and few players who could be described as above-average passers, which means nothing has come easy for the 18-year-old in the half court. He was starting to string together some better performances before two ugly road games against Marquette and St. John's last week again revealed many of the same flaws.
Not turning 19 until July, time is on Whitmore's side and there have been enough high-level flashes of talent to keep him firmly in the lottery conversation. Over the next month, scouts will want to see him show growth with his feel for the game on both ends of the floor, play significantly harder as the likely end of his college career approaches and hopefully be more productive against high-level competition, with several tough games on the calendar in the coming weeks.
Rayan Rupert | 6-7 | SG/SF | Age: 18.6 | New Zealand Breakers | No. 17 in Top 100
A right wrist fracture caused Rupert to miss two months of action, but he made his return at the beginning of January. He quickly reclaimed his spot in the starting five, having some of his best games of the season recently as the New Zealand Breakers finished their season on a winning streak to claim second place and home-court advantage in the playoffs until the Finals. Rupert seems to have used his time off wisely as he's come back looking far more polished utilizing his left hand and has shown increasing flashes of shot-creation prowess and willingness to attack the rim aggressively looking for contact.
Rupert's numbers don't jump off the page, but his maturity on both ends of the floor certainly does. Despite not turning 19 until the end of May, he brings a calming presence to his team's offense with his strong feel for the game and unselfish style, as well as strong defensive versatility and intensity required to play a key role for the NBL's most efficient defense.
Rupert's 7-3 wingspan allows him to make a huge impact off the ball, rotating to protect the rim, contesting shots on the perimeter and coming up with plenty of deflections and steals. He's often utilized as a point-of-attack defender, heating up the opposing team's point guard the length of the floor and has little issues switching onto bigger players due to his length, intensity and competitiveness. Every team in the NBA is looking for long-armed wings in Rupert's mold who can defend multiple positions, make good decisions with the ball and switch seamlessly from point guards to power forwards. Rupert's frame needs to continue to fill out, but he's already made significant strides in that department and has the type of shoulders and build that should be able to carry significant weight in the coming years.
The next step for Rupert will be to find more consistency from the perimeter, where he's shown flashes of shot-making both off the dribble and with his feet set, but is only making 24% of his 3-pointers. His strong shooting mechanics and the rave reviews he draws off the court for his work ethic and overall approach bode well for his ability to improve here, but it will be difficult for him to reach his full potential until he becomes a more formidable scoring threat.
The fact that Rupert has been a key cog for a championship-contending team, something none of his NBL Next Star predecessors such as Josh Giddey, LaMelo Ball or Ousmane Dieng can boast, is clearly a feather in his cap. A huge number of NBA teams have already traveled to New Zealand to scout him in practices and games with more expected to arrive as his team's playoff campaign kicks off later in February.
Jalen Hood-Schifino | 6-5 | PG/SG | Age: 19.6 | Indiana | No. 20 in Top 100
Hood-Schifino is having a roller coaster ride of a season, with flashes of high-level lottery talent interspersed with some real stinkers that scream the need for a second year in school.
Catch him on the right night -- Big Ten games against Ohio State, Northwestern and Iowa, where he averaged 26 points and five assists per game on a scorching 16-for-24 from beyond the arc -- and you're looking at one of the most talented freshmen in college basketball; a 6-5 point guard with dynamic shot-making ability, live-ball passing prowess and significant defensive versatility with his chiseled frame and 6-10 wingspan.
Catch him on the wrong night and you'll probably wonder what all the fuss is about considering his propensity for live-ball turnovers (he sports a concerning 22% turnover percentage), his extreme struggles finishing inside the paint (41% 2-point shooting), his over-reliance on difficult floaters and pull-up jumpers, and the lack of awareness he shows defensively running into screens and getting lost off the ball. Take out Hood-Schifino's incredible three-game outburst from beyond the arc and he's shooting a more modest 12-for-43 (28%) from 3 while converting 69% of his free throws.
For that reason, the next six weeks will be telling in figuring out where Hood-Schifino fits into the first-round equation. If he continues to grow and builds on his mostly strong Big Ten play thus far, he'll be firmly in lottery conversations. If he has more games like his 1-for-14 shooting against Maryland on Tuesday, he'll end up being a very polarizing prospect come draft time.
Gregory Jackson II | 6-9 | PF | Age: 18.1 | South Carolina | No. 21 in Top 100
Jackson has proven to be one of the toughest evals in this draft class according to NBA scouts, mixing in flashes of brilliance with long stretches of inefficient and ineffective play.
The youngest player in college basketball, Jackson just barely made the cut for eligibility in the 2023 NBA draft by 15 days. He reclassified late, decommitted from North Carolina, and elected to stay close to home by enrolling at South Carolina, who is 1-8 in SEC play and one of the worst teams in high-major basketball.
After playing primarily at center in high school and on Nike EYBL grassroots circuit, Jackson has reinvented himself as a small forward in college, living off a steady diet of difficult pull-up jumpers out of isolation and pick-and-roll. The results have been decidedly mixed, with Jackson converting just 42% of his 2-pointers, 33% of his 3s, and 64% of his free throw attempts, making him the second least-efficient scorer of any college player in our Top 100. He's also posting three times as many turnovers as assists, making for a very difficult watching experience and helping to explain some of his team's considerable struggles this season.
Defensively, things have been even worse. He gives very little effort, looking very upright in his stance, not covering ground well, struggling to get over screens and looking lethargic with his reaction time, providing next to nothing as a rim-protector due to his poor 6-11 wingspan. Jackson played with good effort in previous settings, leading the Nike EYBL in rebounding with 10.2 per game in 20 contests, but South Carolina's coaching staff hasn't been able to coax much effort or physicality out of him, with his body language looking very concerning at times.
Jackson's talent is undeniable, especially considering he recently turned 18. Few players in the college game demonstrate the type of range and shot-making prowess he does dribbling the ball up and rising up from impossible vantage points. He is a powerful finisher who shows some potential as a shot-creator, but everything he does looks entirely disconnected from his team, and it's hard to ascertain how long it will take to reprogram him and get him to play winning basketball in a different environment.
Workouts and especially interviews, where Jackson is certain to excel, will likely help assuage some of the concerns about the way this season has looked, but it wouldn't hurt to show some growth prior to that, especially at the SEC tournament, which will be heavily attended by NBA decision makers and will be the last impression most have of him in a 5-on-5 setting.
James Nnaji | 6-11 | C | Age: 18.4 | Barcelona | No. 22 in Top 100
Playing for Barcelona, currently in first place in the Spanish ACB and third in the EuroLeague, minutes haven't been easy to come by for 18-year-old Nnaji in his team's stacked frontcourt rotation.
Two recent starting nods in domestic league play have allowed NBA scouts to get a deeper look at the chiseled 6-11 Nigerian with a 7-4 wingspan, and he responded by posting 32 points and eight rebounds in 43 minutes of action on near-perfect 13-for-14 shooting, leaving one to wonder how productive he would be in a situation with more consistent playing time.
Nnaji's virtues are readily obvious at first glance, as he's one of the most physically gifted prospects in this draft class, blessed with incredible quickness getting off his feet for dunks and blocks, and outstanding mobility running the floor and covering ground defensively. He draws quite a few fouls with his enviable combination of speed, power and explosiveness, putting pressure on opposing defenses every time he rolls to the basket and offering a significant vertical spacing target with his improving hands and huge catch radius.
Nnaji is also making subtle improvement as the season continues with his passing and ability to take slower defenders off the dribble in a straight line with huge strides, things that are very much a work in progress due to his average skill level but are still encouraging to see considering his lack of experience.
Nnaji only started playing basketball in July 2016 and moved to Ratgeber Basketball Academy in Hungary off a Facebook post he made following the Giants of Africa camp in 2018. He spent two years in Hungary before moving to Barcelona in August 2020, progressing through the ranks of their junior teams and the Spanish fifth division to carve out the role he has now.
Nnaji's processing speed and awareness on both ends of the floor are still a work in progress, but the fact that he can make the impact he does on both ends of the floor mostly off his tools gives him plenty of upside to grow into as the game slows down for him. With his minutes likely to be inconsistent for the remainder of the season and Barcelona's schedule through the month of June likely preventing him from conducting private workouts with NBA teams, getting a firm handle on Nnaji's draft stock won't be easy, but he's done well to solidify his candidacy as a first-round prospect with the opportunities he's received thus far.