Heres Shanahan in a nut shell:
Starting QBs with Kyle Shanahan as OC since 2010:
| | | | | | | | | |
2010 | Donovan Mcnabb | 5-8 | 275 | 472 | 58.3 | 3377 | 14 | 15 | 77.1 |
2011 | Rex Grossman | 5-8 | 265 | 458 | 57.9 | 3151 | 16 | 20 | 72.4 |
2012 | Robert Griffin III | 9-6 | 258 | 393 | 65.6 | 3200 | 20 | 5 | 102.4 |
2013 | Robert Griffin III | 3-10 | 274 | 456 | 60.1 | 3203 | 16 | 12 | 82.2 |
2014 | Brian Hoyer | 7-6 | 242 | 438 | 55.3 | 3326 | 12 | 13 | 76.5 |
2015 | Matt Ryan | 6-6 | 316 | 479 | 64.5 | 3481 | 17 | 13 | 87.9 |
[th=""]Year[/th][th=""]Name[/th][th=""]Record[/th][th=""]Comp[/th][th=""]Att[/th][th=""]Comp%[/th][th=""]Yards[/th][th=""]TD[/th][th=""]INT[/th][th=""]RTG[/th]
[h1]THIS IS WHATS CONCERNING:[/h1]
2010 WAS started 4-3 and went 2-7 after
2011 WAS started 3-1 and went 2-10 after
2013 WAS started 3-5 and went 0-8 after
2014 CLE stared 7-4 and went 0-5 after
2015 ATL stared 5-0 and went 1-6 after
Now all these above stats arent as damning when presented in context right? He was only responsible for the offense, and these teams could have been bad for more reasons than him right? Here's offensive ranks by year from Football Outsiders which is adjusted so that earlier games in the season become gradually less important. It better reflects how the team was playing at the end of the season.
2010 WAS: #26 (Passing #23, Run #26)
2011 WAS: #18 (passing #22, Run #20)
2013 WAS: #27 (Passing #26, Run #9)
2014 CLE: #28 (Passing #22, Run #26)
2015 ATL Year-To-Date: #25 (Passing #24, Run #1
The only year from 2010-2015 that was good was RGIII's rookie year (2012 with the #9 offense). That turned out to be an obvious fluke as he 100% mishandled his QB and refused to make adjustments once the NFL caught up to him.
Now Ryan should not be invulnerable to criticism. His decision making has been poor, he has been a red zone turnover machine, his mechanics look off, and he looks like he’s lost some arm strength and confidence. But the problem lies way beyond him. Matt's just not comfortable in the offense, and its easy to see why.
Stupid turnovers have hurt, but we should have won some of those games (TB, IND, SF, MIN) regardless.
Ryan has not been himself, but its definitely not just him. Over the last 1-6 stretch the Falcons have turned the ball over 16 times. The falcons as a team have a turnover differential of -8 over these last 7 games. 9 have been the fault of Matt Ryan. Untimely fumbles and poor center snaps have added to the turnover problem.
Ryan's redzone stats:
Matt Ryan's red zone stats compiled by
/u/tiercel:
| | | | | | | |
Under Mularkey | 144 | 289 | 1014 | 63 | 6 | 89.7 | 4 Years |
Under Koetter | 144 | 253 | 904 | 63 TDs | 4 | 97.4 | 3 Years |
Combined | 288 | 539 | 1918 | 126 TDs | 10 | 93.3 | 7 Years |
Under Shanahan | 35 | 64 | 245 | 15 | 4 | 77.1 | 12 Games |
[th=""]Coordinator[/th][th=""]Comp[/th][th=""]Att[/th][th=""]Yards[/th][th=""]TD[/th][th=""]INT[/th][th=""]Rating[/th][th=""]Time in system[/th]
Normalized to 12 games a year per coordinator by
/u/fear865:
| | | | | | |
Under Mularkey | 27 | 54 | 190 | 12 | 1 | 90.3 |
Under Koetter | 36 | 63 | 226 | 16 | 1 | 97.6 |
Combined average | 31 | 58 | 206 | 13.5 | 1 | 93.8 |
Shanahan | 35 | 64 | 245 | 15 | 4 | 77.1 |
[th=""]Coordinator[/th][th=""]Comp[/th][th=""]Att[/th][th=""]Yards[/th][th=""]TD[/th][th=""]INT[/th][th=""]Rating[/th]
All 4 of the Shanahan interceptions have come in the last 7 weeks.
As you might be able to notice, the completion percentage is around the same throughout all coordinators. Could this be an indication that Ryan is more the one to blame? That could certainly be the case. I personally see enough otherwise to disagree. At the same time, Julio has 159 targets this year. His targets haven’t slowed down, but in the last 7 weeks combined he only has 8 Red Zone targets!
Edited in:
/u/shaan_ pointed out to me stats showing how Shanahan's Scoring and Red Zone rankings consistently have been worse than his yardage rankings, helping show why we can't win games.
Falcons 2015: YPG Rank - 5, PPG Rank - 14, Points per Red Zone Rank (Pts/RZ) - 16
Browns 2014: YPG - 23, PPG - 27, Pts/RZ - 25
******** 2013: YPG - 9, PPG - 23, Pts/RZ - 27
******** 2012: YPG - 5, PPG - 4, Pts/RZ - 9
******** 2011: YPG - 16, PPG - 26, Pts/RZ - 30
******** 2010: YPG - 18, PPG - 25, Pts/RZ - 22
The problems seem to be consistent wherever he goes. His personnel changes, his scheme might change a little bit, but the overarching problems with his offenses have struck a pattern.
Good running game, zone blocking scheme works. Red Zone inefficiencies, hot start with a latter season swoon, criticisms of stubbornness and unprofessional-ism, and unwillingness to adjust scheme no matter the circumstances.
The problem with the offense is this. Shanahan centers the offense around Julio too much. You're thinking "Why is that a bad thing? You just told me that Julio isnt even being targeted in the redzone." Ill tell ya.
The route trees he draws up are for Julio to get open. Thats it. So when Julio isnt open (which happens a lot since he's double covered all the ******* time), Matt Ryan has nowhere to throw the ball. He has to try to force passes he has no business in making. Shanahan is drawing up pass plays with 4 WR/3WR1TE sets, but only using 1 WR. When the first look isnt open, the play is more than likely dead. Hankerson cant catch the ball, and he refuses to implement Roddy into the gameplan even though he's been nothing but reliable this year. Justin Hardy isnt being used at all even he's shown to be competent, and Hankerson isnt. Hank has since been put on the IR, but Hardy + Roddy only got a combined 6 targets last week....what!?
In the second half of the Colts game on Nov 22nd from being up 21-7 to being tied, Shannys play selection was as follows: 13 pass, 4 run. Now I know Devonta was out, but you have the lead. Gotta do better. And when the defense knows who youre gonna throw to no matter the situation, its not gonna work. No mid-game adjustments AT ALL.
Shanny wont take criticism as evident by the fact that he opened the game in the no huddle and threw it to Roddy 3 straight times even when he wasnt open as a troll job to the fans. This is an example of something that’s been pervasive the whole year through. He dictates where the pass is thrown to a fault. I've never seen Ryan have this little of control over the offense. He's not audibling, not calling hot routes, and even in the no huddle which he's amazing at, Shanahan is calling the shots. Its infuriating. He has a lot of history of rubbing his former players and coaches the wrong way.
Pro Football Talk wrote about McNabb and Shanahan butting heads.
While Donovan’s feelings about Washington remain the same, the Shanahans — both Mike and more specifically Kyle — have made this an extremely difficult relationship to maintain," the lengthy statement began. "Their comments have been beyond disrespectful and unprecedented for a six-time Pro Bowl quarterback such as Donovan."
The meat of the statement takes aim at "leaked reports" that McNabb couldn’t grasp Shanahan’s offense.
"I believe there is tension between Donovan and Kyle that’s rooted in the fact that Donovan has suggested modifications to Kyle’s offense based on intricacies Donovan has learned in his NFL career," Smith writes. "For example, Donovan has asked all year that the team run more screen passes to help manage the pass rush more effectively. Ironically, Kyle decided to employ Donovan’s suggestions after he unceremoniously benched him on Sunday.
"After Donovan quickly led the ******** down the field and scored what appeared to be the game saving drive against Tampa Bay, Kyle was quoted as saying ‘He’ll [McNabb] never take another snap for me again.’ Remember that statement came after Donovan led the ******** on one of their best drives of the entire season."
A cleveland Browns reporter also had this to say on Kyle:
"He's very knowledgeable about the game and knows his offense. But will he be willing to adapt his offense to whichever quarterback [the Cleveland Browns] draft? That's what he'll have to do to be successful.''
This scares me as well because it could explain the problems with Ryan:
McNabb has been very vocal about his discord with Kyle and Mike Shanahan, saying that they tried to change his mechanics and force him into their scheme instead of vice versa. McNabb ripped the two as recently as a 2012 in a interview with ESPN's FirstTake, saying they'd put their egos ahead of what was best for quarterback Robert Griffin III.
There’s tons more of these quotes that reflect the same thing across multiple QB’s and multiple years that can be found in this article:
http://www.thefalcoholic.com/2015/12/1/9820316/kyle-shanahan-quarterback-killer
Heres some info user
/u/BlackManonFIRE posted in
/r/falcons comparing the Falcons and Panthers passing games:
We definitely have thrown way too much to Julio (1st in the league in targets). I took a quick minute while procrastinating to compare Ryan's targets to Cam Newton's (CAR).
Most of Cam's targets are to Greg Olsen (TE) and his targets are much more widespread, which is similar to how our offense ran when we had TG. CAR does not have their #1 (Benjamin).
Our #1 WR is out targeting our #2 by a whopping 101 targets!!! Julio has 200% more targets than the next WR in our system. That’s 21% of all of Ryan’s targets! Why would you cover anyone else?
By comparison, Tedd Ginn is out targeting the text most targeted WR by a mere 32 targets. That’s only 8.2% of all passes thrown by Cam.
Freeman's total percentage of targets (15.2) are greater than the 3 RBs of Carolina combined (12.2).
Ball distribution is a problem and it seems Shanahan is having Matty Ice get rid of the ball almost immediately instead of going through his progressions. Let it also be known that Hankerson has an 18% drop rate, the highest by far of any WR with over 40 targets yet he continues to get the ball over Roddy and Hardy who both have yet to drop a ball.
Atlanta Falcons
| | | |
Julio Jones | 102 | 159 | 33.2 |
Jacob Tamme | 47 | 67 | 14.0 |
Devonta Freeman | 58 | 73 | 15.2 |
Leonard Hankerson | 26 | 45 | 9.3 |
Roddy White | 30 | 51 | 10.6 |
Nick Williams | 13 | 21 | 4.3 |
Terron Ward | 9 | 13 | 2.7 |
Patrick DiMarco | 10 | 13 | 2.7 |
Justin Hardy | 11 | 15 | 3.1 |
Levine Toilolo | 6 | 8 | 1.6 |
Eric Weems | 1 | 1 | 0.2 |
Tony Moeaki | 1 | 1 | 0.2 |
Tevin Coleman | 2 | 10 | 2.1 |
Totals | 316 | 479 | --- |
[th=""]Name[/th][th=""]Receptions[/th][th=""]Targets[/th][th=""]% of Targets[/th]
Carolina Panthers
| | | |
Greg Olsen | 62 | 104 | 27.8 |
Ted Ginn Jr. | 35 | 75 | 20.0 |
Jerricho Cotchery | 27 | 39 | 10.4 |
Devin Funchess | 19 | 43 | 11.5 |
Corey Brown | 19 | 32 | 8.6 |
Mike Tolbert | 13 | 16 | 4.2 |
Brenton Bersin | 7 | 9 | 2.4 |
Ed Dickson | 14 | 21 | 5.6 |
Jonathan Stewart | 15 | 20 | 5.3 |
Fozzy Whittaker | 7 | 10 | 2.6 |
Totals | 218 | 374 | --- |
[th=""]Name[/th][th=""]Receptions[/th][th=""]Targets[/th][th=""]% of Targets[/th]
When you have Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Devonta Freeman, and Roddy White and you're still not getting it done on offense, the problem obviously lies with the scheme.
Ryan was twice as good the last two years with an inferior team at all position groups.
The running game….ugh Heres something that I think is the most telling about not only the Falcons offensive woes, but red zone woes as well.
First 6 games: 11 Touchdowns
161 Attempts, 780 yards - 4.84 YPC
Freeman - 9 TD
Coleman - 1 TD
Ward - 1 TD
Last 6 games: 0 Touchdowns
127 Attempts, 525 yards - 4.13 YPC
Freeman - 0 TD
Coleman - 0 TD
Ward - 0 TD
Shanahan is out thinking himself. He is unable to spread the field between the 20’s and then once scoring position comes, he forgets who his personnel is and tries to outwit the defense. He is unwilling to adapt his scheme to the team he’s playing or the personnel he has from team to team. Its his way or the highway it seems.
Ryan,
Julio, and
Roddy have all come out of being critical of Shanahan in some way, shape or form. Something needs to change soon because right now, whatever they're doing, it isnt working.
Maybe Ryan really is regressing and my fandom is keeping me blind to it, but I think I've presented enough evidence to counter that theory.
To finish I will say something positive that Shanahan has brought. He has revitalized Atlanta's running game. The zone blocking scheme works, the patchwork Oline picked from UDFAs and young draft picks have not only been great in the running game, but have improved in pass blocking as well. I can only glean that he has a good eye for OL talent. Before this year the Falcons had only one 100 yard rusher in 37 games. That has definitely changed for the better.