- Sep 1, 2012
- 3,142
- 1,904
Totally agree Trout is going to be getting a big pay day and I can only imagine how muchIf Cabrera gets 300+, imagine how much the Yankees will sign Trout for
2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by proshares,
- Start date
- Status
- Dec 14, 2003
- 8,076
- 3,507
500?
- Sep 1, 2012
- 3,142
- 1,904
I've heard and seen people joking about that a lot but I can't see a player getting 500 million dollars to play baseball don't get me wrong Trout is a great player out on the field but at one point If teams keep paying players these crazy contracts one day in the future someone is going to want 600 million or 700, and etc... But I can see him getting over 300 million the way it's going
Bend_The_Knee
formerly gotholesinmysocks
- Apr 11, 2008
- 61,807
- 23,554
When can Trout become a FA?
- Dec 14, 2004
- 60,034
- 50,948
Trout is mad young. A ten year deal would be smart for whoever gets him.
Miguel is 30 and overweight. He has two years left and just got an 8 year extension worth 248 mil. He can't field, he's just a damn good bat. I expect that to decline by 34-35. I think it's a bad move but I could be wrong.
Miguel is 30 and overweight. He has two years left and just got an 8 year extension worth 248 mil. He can't field, he's just a damn good bat. I expect that to decline by 34-35. I think it's a bad move but I could be wrong.
- Jan 3, 2011
- 10,371
- 653
I think the Cabrera deal is excellent, personally.
- Oct 16, 2010
- 6,359
- 3,561
- May 10, 2009
- 31,834
- 18,383
Another 3-4 years I believe? Angels can take him to arbitration after his current deal is up if I am not mistaken.
- Jul 31, 2007
- 6,043
- 2,216
Cabrera is now making around $50,000 for each at bat
- Feb 17, 2007
- 21,784
- 2,957
jumpmanfromdabay
Banned
- Jan 25, 2008
- 25,730
- 2,900
Going to the Giants/A's tonight in SF! Couldn't pass up $12 lower level
Pac Bell or what ever it's called now is just
It is
- Jan 19, 2002
- 23,412
- 5,523
- Jan 19, 2002
- 23,412
- 5,523
They used Scherzer's money he didn't take 
I love Miggy and think he's top 3 best player in mlb, but at his age 10 years is absurd. Pujols deal was just as bad, and this one adds 50 mil to it
Baseball needs a salary cap
I love Miggy and think he's top 3 best player in mlb, but at his age 10 years is absurd. Pujols deal was just as bad, and this one adds 50 mil to it
Baseball needs a salary cap
Miguel Cabrera deal a disaster for Detroit.
Timing of Miguel Cabrera deal is bizarre.
When will Trout's reign end?
Rival execs aghast at Cabrera contract.
Miguel Cabrera’s Terrible and Understandable Contract.
As I find more POV's, I'll post em.
In analyzing Miguel Cabrera's enormous contract extension with the Detroit Tigers, I might as well just re-run my column on the Ryan Howard contract from April 2010: Teams do not need to just to extend veteran players who are two years from free agency out into their late 30s (or beyond).
The Tigers might as well just light much of the $292 million they're giving to Cabrera on fire or invest it in downtown Detroit real estate, which probably wouldn't be any worse of an investment.
Cabrera is one of the best hitters in the game but not the best player even in his own league, because being the best player involves more than just hitting -- defense matters, position matters, baserunning matters, and Miggy, while preternaturally gifted at hitting, isn't very good at those other things. He's been worth about seven WAR (wins above replacement) per season over the past few, and paying $30 million per year for that kind of production is probably reasonable, even if it implies that a free-agent version of Mike Trout would be worth the GDP of a small island nation.
Way too many years
The issues with the deal are the timing and the length. The timing makes no sense -- Cabrera had two seasons to go to free agency, and the Tigers could just as easily have taken care of this next winter, perhaps after making sure that Miggy stays healthy through the whole season. The leverage wouldn't have shifted; Cabrera would have been a year closer to free agency but a year older and perhaps a year heavier, too. He might have even declined offensively in the interim, although I wouldn't have bet on it. They could have even waited into 2015.
Any number of variables could have changed in the meantime that allowed them to strike a better deal; it is inconceivable that Cabrera's price would have gone up in that same span of time.
As for the length, we just went through this with Albert Pujols, who signed a heavily backloaded 10-year deal with the Los Angeles Angels before 2012, only to enter his decline phase on the flight out to Anaheim, Calif. His body has begun to break down, too, as we often see with bigger players in their 30s. Cabrera is now signed through an age-40 season that, as likely as not, won't ever happen.
History not on Miggy's side
Cabrera is peaking now, but hitters of his type -- bat-only corner guys -- no matter how good, decline into their 30s and do so, in general, more precipitously than more athletic or up-the-middle players. Many corner players who were nearly as productive in their 20s as Cabrera didn't even make it to age 40, guys like Ron Santo, Vladimir Guerrero, Bobby Bonds, Buddy Bell and **** Allen, none of whom played past age 37.
The history of players like Miggy in their 30s and early 40s isn't promising for Detroit. Only seven corner position players (first base, third base, left field, right field or designated hitter) have generated 40-plus WAR past age 30 since 1961. All but Roberto Clemente played at least through age 39. No pure first baseman has done it; Edgar Martinez, who played through age 41, is the only DH to do so. The top first basemen on the list were Willie Stargell at 36.2 and Rafael Palmeiro, whose career ended in disgrace after a positive performance-enhancing drug test, at 35.8.
None of the players on the list of 35-plus WAR has a listed weight higher than Chipper Jones' 210 pounds, although I think we can safely say Barry Bonds weighed north of that in his late 30s; Miggy is listed, somewhat conservatively, at 240. Jim Thome, listed at 250 pounds, had the highest WAR after age 30 of any player listed at 240 or above, with 32.9, followed by Frank Thomas at 23.3 and David Ortiz at 23.0.
Ortiz might be the best comparison for what the Tigers can reasonably hope to get from Cabrera. Papi has stayed healthy and productive into his late 30s, averaging 132 games and 4.1 WAR over the past seven seasons. He earned $28.5 million over the past two seasons and will make $31 million over the next two, or just a little more than what Miggy will make per season under the new deal. And the Boston Red Sox have kept his contracts limited in duration rather than committing to him a decade in ad***** -- with no evidence at all that this has cost them any kind of significant premium.
Cabrera will most likely be a $30 million-per-year player in 2014 and 2015, but the Tigers already had those years under control at salaries well below that mark. The problem is that, even with increasing revenues across MLB driving salaries up, he's unlikely to be a $30 million-per-year player in 2016 or 2017, and the odds of him being that in 2023 are infinitesimal.
He and Justin Verlander are now set to make about $58 million combined in 2019, playing in a market that is shedding population. It's not any better a formula from a business perspective than it is from a baseball one.
The Tigers might as well just light much of the $292 million they're giving to Cabrera on fire or invest it in downtown Detroit real estate, which probably wouldn't be any worse of an investment.
Cabrera is one of the best hitters in the game but not the best player even in his own league, because being the best player involves more than just hitting -- defense matters, position matters, baserunning matters, and Miggy, while preternaturally gifted at hitting, isn't very good at those other things. He's been worth about seven WAR (wins above replacement) per season over the past few, and paying $30 million per year for that kind of production is probably reasonable, even if it implies that a free-agent version of Mike Trout would be worth the GDP of a small island nation.
Way too many years
The issues with the deal are the timing and the length. The timing makes no sense -- Cabrera had two seasons to go to free agency, and the Tigers could just as easily have taken care of this next winter, perhaps after making sure that Miggy stays healthy through the whole season. The leverage wouldn't have shifted; Cabrera would have been a year closer to free agency but a year older and perhaps a year heavier, too. He might have even declined offensively in the interim, although I wouldn't have bet on it. They could have even waited into 2015.
Any number of variables could have changed in the meantime that allowed them to strike a better deal; it is inconceivable that Cabrera's price would have gone up in that same span of time.
As for the length, we just went through this with Albert Pujols, who signed a heavily backloaded 10-year deal with the Los Angeles Angels before 2012, only to enter his decline phase on the flight out to Anaheim, Calif. His body has begun to break down, too, as we often see with bigger players in their 30s. Cabrera is now signed through an age-40 season that, as likely as not, won't ever happen.
History not on Miggy's side
Cabrera is peaking now, but hitters of his type -- bat-only corner guys -- no matter how good, decline into their 30s and do so, in general, more precipitously than more athletic or up-the-middle players. Many corner players who were nearly as productive in their 20s as Cabrera didn't even make it to age 40, guys like Ron Santo, Vladimir Guerrero, Bobby Bonds, Buddy Bell and **** Allen, none of whom played past age 37.
The history of players like Miggy in their 30s and early 40s isn't promising for Detroit. Only seven corner position players (first base, third base, left field, right field or designated hitter) have generated 40-plus WAR past age 30 since 1961. All but Roberto Clemente played at least through age 39. No pure first baseman has done it; Edgar Martinez, who played through age 41, is the only DH to do so. The top first basemen on the list were Willie Stargell at 36.2 and Rafael Palmeiro, whose career ended in disgrace after a positive performance-enhancing drug test, at 35.8.
None of the players on the list of 35-plus WAR has a listed weight higher than Chipper Jones' 210 pounds, although I think we can safely say Barry Bonds weighed north of that in his late 30s; Miggy is listed, somewhat conservatively, at 240. Jim Thome, listed at 250 pounds, had the highest WAR after age 30 of any player listed at 240 or above, with 32.9, followed by Frank Thomas at 23.3 and David Ortiz at 23.0.
Ortiz might be the best comparison for what the Tigers can reasonably hope to get from Cabrera. Papi has stayed healthy and productive into his late 30s, averaging 132 games and 4.1 WAR over the past seven seasons. He earned $28.5 million over the past two seasons and will make $31 million over the next two, or just a little more than what Miggy will make per season under the new deal. And the Boston Red Sox have kept his contracts limited in duration rather than committing to him a decade in ad***** -- with no evidence at all that this has cost them any kind of significant premium.
Cabrera will most likely be a $30 million-per-year player in 2014 and 2015, but the Tigers already had those years under control at salaries well below that mark. The problem is that, even with increasing revenues across MLB driving salaries up, he's unlikely to be a $30 million-per-year player in 2016 or 2017, and the odds of him being that in 2023 are infinitesimal.
He and Justin Verlander are now set to make about $58 million combined in 2019, playing in a market that is shedding population. It's not any better a formula from a business perspective than it is from a baseball one.
Timing of Miguel Cabrera deal is bizarre.
Miguel Cabrera's new contract, which is reportedly worth close to $300 million, should keep him with the Detroit Tigers for the rest of his career.
Most of the industry is shell-shocked and isn't sure how to react to this news. Here are my five key takeaways.
1. The timing is weird
If Cabrera happened to be a free agent this offseason, this is the kind of contract I would expect him to get. Problem is, he's not a free agent. In fact, he's under team control for two more years. Furthermore, he is coming off of back-to-back MVP awards, and you could argue that his leverage will never be greater. So why now, of all times, would you give him a contract extension?
If anything, this reeks of desperation after the Tigers couldn't get Max Scherzer to agree to a contract extension last week (more on that later), and the Tigers are giving off the vibe of a jilted lover on the rebound.
And with so many teams locking up their superstars before they hit free agency, it's not as if we're going to be see record-shattering contracts given to free agents the next two winters. Odds are, Cabrera's next two years won't be as good as his last by virtue of the fact that he was outrageously good the last two seasons, and because he turns 31 next month, which is when hitters typically start to decline.
2. Owners not learning
After the second Alex Rodriguez contract being a complete disaster and Albert Pujols' latest contract shaping up like one, you would have thought that owners would have finally learned their lesson about how players will age in the PED-testing era. Apparently not.
Every time we see a deal where a guy gets big money into his 40s, I'm left scratching my head. When this deal ends, Cabrera will be on the wrong side of 40, and the Tigers just set a precedent they don't have to set.
3. New plateau for superstars
With the average annual value of this deal looking like it will eclipse $30 million -- and the same goes for Clayton Kershaw's recent deal -- it's clear that we have reached a new plateau of $30 million per year for star players. Considering A-Rod first got $25 million per year in 2000, it's somewhat surprising it took this long.
4. Trout has to be thrilled
Speaking of new plateaus, this contract has to make Mike Trout and his agent very happy. If Miguel Cabrera is going to be getting more than $30 million per year, any contract for Trout has start at that amount for his free-agent years, and probably eclipse $40 million per year by the end of it.
It took a while for the league to get from $20 million per year to $30 million, but the jump from 30 to 40 won't take nearly as long.
5. Scherzer's last season in Detroit
From my perspective, this deal means that this will be Scherzer's last season with the Tigers. The club wanted him to take a six-year deal, he stood firm at seven, and they appear to have committed their resources elsewhere.
Scherzer will immediately become the best pitcher on the market next winter (assuming he's healthy), and the Tigers will likely turn their attention to the next group of arms, such as James Shields, Justin Masterson or Jon Lester, assuming he doesn't re-sign with Boston.
Most of the industry is shell-shocked and isn't sure how to react to this news. Here are my five key takeaways.
1. The timing is weird
If Cabrera happened to be a free agent this offseason, this is the kind of contract I would expect him to get. Problem is, he's not a free agent. In fact, he's under team control for two more years. Furthermore, he is coming off of back-to-back MVP awards, and you could argue that his leverage will never be greater. So why now, of all times, would you give him a contract extension?
If anything, this reeks of desperation after the Tigers couldn't get Max Scherzer to agree to a contract extension last week (more on that later), and the Tigers are giving off the vibe of a jilted lover on the rebound.
And with so many teams locking up their superstars before they hit free agency, it's not as if we're going to be see record-shattering contracts given to free agents the next two winters. Odds are, Cabrera's next two years won't be as good as his last by virtue of the fact that he was outrageously good the last two seasons, and because he turns 31 next month, which is when hitters typically start to decline.
2. Owners not learning
After the second Alex Rodriguez contract being a complete disaster and Albert Pujols' latest contract shaping up like one, you would have thought that owners would have finally learned their lesson about how players will age in the PED-testing era. Apparently not.
Every time we see a deal where a guy gets big money into his 40s, I'm left scratching my head. When this deal ends, Cabrera will be on the wrong side of 40, and the Tigers just set a precedent they don't have to set.
3. New plateau for superstars
With the average annual value of this deal looking like it will eclipse $30 million -- and the same goes for Clayton Kershaw's recent deal -- it's clear that we have reached a new plateau of $30 million per year for star players. Considering A-Rod first got $25 million per year in 2000, it's somewhat surprising it took this long.
4. Trout has to be thrilled
Speaking of new plateaus, this contract has to make Mike Trout and his agent very happy. If Miguel Cabrera is going to be getting more than $30 million per year, any contract for Trout has start at that amount for his free-agent years, and probably eclipse $40 million per year by the end of it.
It took a while for the league to get from $20 million per year to $30 million, but the jump from 30 to 40 won't take nearly as long.
5. Scherzer's last season in Detroit
From my perspective, this deal means that this will be Scherzer's last season with the Tigers. The club wanted him to take a six-year deal, he stood firm at seven, and they appear to have committed their resources elsewhere.
Scherzer will immediately become the best pitcher on the market next winter (assuming he's healthy), and the Tigers will likely turn their attention to the next group of arms, such as James Shields, Justin Masterson or Jon Lester, assuming he doesn't re-sign with Boston.
When will Trout's reign end?
Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Trout clearly has established himself as the best player in Major League Baseball. He is ranked No. 1 in the "Baseball Tonight" 100, and he will be the favorite to remain on the top of this list for the next five years.
The rest of the top five will turn over, as there are a number of players who will move in and out over the next half-decade. Let’s have some fun and take a look at the guys who I think will populate the list of top-five players each year through the 2019 season.
Understand these lists are purely what I think could happen, and I'm assuming some amount of good health and luck during these five years, while hypothesizing some outcomes based on current performance and trajectory. I added some statistical projections courtesy of Dan Szymborski's ZiPS projections system, just to give you a sense of what the stats say about these guys. In some case, I'm a bit more optimistic than the computer models.
Top 5 players in 2015 (projected via ZiPS)
1. Mike Trout, CF, Los Angeles Angels (.289/.384/.505, 42 SB, 8.9 WAR)
2. Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.48 ERA, 222 K's, 5.7 WAR)
3. Andrew McCutchen, CF, Pittsburgh Pirates (.286/.375/.489, 6.2 WAR)
4. Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit Tigers (.310/.397/.565, 35 HR, 5.2 WAR)
5. Buster Posey, C, San Francisco Giants (.293/.369/.468, 6.3WAR)
After back-to-back AL MVP campaigns, Cabrera, who is No. 2 this year, should continue a slight descent down the list after ranking No. 1 a year ago.
Kershaw should claim another first- or second-place finish in NL Cy Young Award voting this year, which would put him where he belongs -- as baseball’s second-best player behind Trout. McCutchen is the NL version of Trout: an all-around center fielder whose defense and speed should allow him to move past Cabrera. Posey has already won two World Series titles, an MVP Award, a Silver Slugger Award and a Rookie of the Year Award, and has been named to two All-Star Games. He should round out the top five.
Top 5 players in 2016
1. Mike Trout, CF, Angels (.270/.385/.493, 41 SB, 8.2 WAR)
2. Jose Fernandez, RHP, Miami Marlins (2.65 ERA, 4.6 WAR)
3. Andrew McCutchen, CF, Pirates (.282/.373/.474, 5.8 WAR)
4. Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Dodgers (2.50 ERA, 212 K's, 5.4 WAR)
5. Giancarlo Stanton, RF, Marlins (.259/.372/.552, 35 HR)
Last year, Fernandez was the best 20-year-old pitcher I had ever seen and he is only going to get better. By 2016 he should take over as the best pitcher in the game. His teammate, Stanton, also projects as a top-five player, and he is the only guy currently in the game I could ever see hitting 60 homers in a season, something that hasn't been done since Barry Bonds and Sammy Sosa did it in 2001.
Whether Stanton is playing for Miami or some other team, no ballpark will be able to tame his power. He has the potential to develop into one of the game’s all-time home run leaders, as long as recent knee problems don't become chronic.
Top 5 players in 2017
1. Mike Trout, CF, Angels (.271/.386/.491, 40 SB, 7.9 WAR)
2. Matt Harvey, RHP, New York Mets (2.93 ERA, 2.9 WAR)
3. Bryce Harper, OF, Washington Nationals (.288/.387/.571, 34 HR, 6.4 WAR)
4. Yasiel Puig, OF, Dodgers (.278/.358/.496, 4.1 WAR)
5. Manny Machado, 3B, Baltimore Orioles (.282/.330/.492, 5.5 WAR)
We finally start to see some real change on the list in 2017. By this time, Harvey will be three years removed from Tommy John surgery and a legit Cy Young Award winner. I have to assume the modest WAR projection is because there is some concern about recovery, and therefore his innings totals.
Likewise, all the tools brandished by Harper, Puig and Machado will have matured as they become superstars both on and off the field. All three position players should become perennial MVP, Silver Slugger and Gold Glove candidates.
Top 5 players in 2018
1. Mike Trout, OF, Angels (.269/.381/.483, 36 SB, 7.6 WAR)
2. Jose Fernandez, RHP, Marlins (2.73 ERA, 3.8 WAR)
3. Yasiel Puig, OF, Dodgers (.274/.356/.492, 4.0 WAR)
4. Bryce Harper, OF, Nationals (.255/.378/.553, 36 HR, 6.5 WAR)
5. Matt Harvey, RHP, Mets (2.91 ERA, 2.8 WAR)
So why does Fernandez appear on this list in 2016 and again here, but not in 2017? Call it a hunch that so many innings at such a young age will force him to miss some time in the next few years, which will hurt his ranking at some point. Puig and Harper are rock-solid behind Trout, while Harvey and Fernandez will have established themselves as the two best pitchers in baseball.
Top 5 players in 2019
1. Mike Trout, CF, Angels (.266/.376/.469, 32 SB, 7.2 WAR)
2. Bryce Harper, OF, Nationals (.286/.390/.573, 36 HR, 6.6 WAR)
3. Byron Buxton, OF, Minnesota Twins (.260/.342/.421, 3.7 WAR)
4. Yasiel Puig, OF, Dodgers (.272/.356/.494, 4.0 WAR)
5. Javier Baez, 2B, Chicago Cubs (.262/.315/.535, 36 HR, 4.5 WAR)
Baez, a shortstop now, will move to second base down the line and join Davey Johnson, Rogers Hornsby and Ryne Sandberg as the only second basemen in baseball to hit 40 home runs in a season. Baez will win his first NL MVP award while helping the Cubs make it to the World Series for the first time since 1945.
Buxton emerges as another threat to the top of the list, with Puig and Harper right there as well, giving us the best collection of outfield talent the game has seen in a while. This will be the second straight season that Harper isn't ejected from a game, and Puig will be working on his third consecutive year without a speeding ticket.
The rest of the top five will turn over, as there are a number of players who will move in and out over the next half-decade. Let’s have some fun and take a look at the guys who I think will populate the list of top-five players each year through the 2019 season.
Understand these lists are purely what I think could happen, and I'm assuming some amount of good health and luck during these five years, while hypothesizing some outcomes based on current performance and trajectory. I added some statistical projections courtesy of Dan Szymborski's ZiPS projections system, just to give you a sense of what the stats say about these guys. In some case, I'm a bit more optimistic than the computer models.
Top 5 players in 2015 (projected via ZiPS)
1. Mike Trout, CF, Los Angeles Angels (.289/.384/.505, 42 SB, 8.9 WAR)
2. Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.48 ERA, 222 K's, 5.7 WAR)
3. Andrew McCutchen, CF, Pittsburgh Pirates (.286/.375/.489, 6.2 WAR)
4. Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit Tigers (.310/.397/.565, 35 HR, 5.2 WAR)
5. Buster Posey, C, San Francisco Giants (.293/.369/.468, 6.3WAR)
After back-to-back AL MVP campaigns, Cabrera, who is No. 2 this year, should continue a slight descent down the list after ranking No. 1 a year ago.
Kershaw should claim another first- or second-place finish in NL Cy Young Award voting this year, which would put him where he belongs -- as baseball’s second-best player behind Trout. McCutchen is the NL version of Trout: an all-around center fielder whose defense and speed should allow him to move past Cabrera. Posey has already won two World Series titles, an MVP Award, a Silver Slugger Award and a Rookie of the Year Award, and has been named to two All-Star Games. He should round out the top five.
Top 5 players in 2016
1. Mike Trout, CF, Angels (.270/.385/.493, 41 SB, 8.2 WAR)
2. Jose Fernandez, RHP, Miami Marlins (2.65 ERA, 4.6 WAR)
3. Andrew McCutchen, CF, Pirates (.282/.373/.474, 5.8 WAR)
4. Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Dodgers (2.50 ERA, 212 K's, 5.4 WAR)
5. Giancarlo Stanton, RF, Marlins (.259/.372/.552, 35 HR)
Last year, Fernandez was the best 20-year-old pitcher I had ever seen and he is only going to get better. By 2016 he should take over as the best pitcher in the game. His teammate, Stanton, also projects as a top-five player, and he is the only guy currently in the game I could ever see hitting 60 homers in a season, something that hasn't been done since Barry Bonds and Sammy Sosa did it in 2001.
Whether Stanton is playing for Miami or some other team, no ballpark will be able to tame his power. He has the potential to develop into one of the game’s all-time home run leaders, as long as recent knee problems don't become chronic.
Top 5 players in 2017
1. Mike Trout, CF, Angels (.271/.386/.491, 40 SB, 7.9 WAR)
2. Matt Harvey, RHP, New York Mets (2.93 ERA, 2.9 WAR)
3. Bryce Harper, OF, Washington Nationals (.288/.387/.571, 34 HR, 6.4 WAR)
4. Yasiel Puig, OF, Dodgers (.278/.358/.496, 4.1 WAR)
5. Manny Machado, 3B, Baltimore Orioles (.282/.330/.492, 5.5 WAR)
We finally start to see some real change on the list in 2017. By this time, Harvey will be three years removed from Tommy John surgery and a legit Cy Young Award winner. I have to assume the modest WAR projection is because there is some concern about recovery, and therefore his innings totals.
Likewise, all the tools brandished by Harper, Puig and Machado will have matured as they become superstars both on and off the field. All three position players should become perennial MVP, Silver Slugger and Gold Glove candidates.
Top 5 players in 2018
1. Mike Trout, OF, Angels (.269/.381/.483, 36 SB, 7.6 WAR)
2. Jose Fernandez, RHP, Marlins (2.73 ERA, 3.8 WAR)
3. Yasiel Puig, OF, Dodgers (.274/.356/.492, 4.0 WAR)
4. Bryce Harper, OF, Nationals (.255/.378/.553, 36 HR, 6.5 WAR)
5. Matt Harvey, RHP, Mets (2.91 ERA, 2.8 WAR)
So why does Fernandez appear on this list in 2016 and again here, but not in 2017? Call it a hunch that so many innings at such a young age will force him to miss some time in the next few years, which will hurt his ranking at some point. Puig and Harper are rock-solid behind Trout, while Harvey and Fernandez will have established themselves as the two best pitchers in baseball.
Top 5 players in 2019
1. Mike Trout, CF, Angels (.266/.376/.469, 32 SB, 7.2 WAR)
2. Bryce Harper, OF, Nationals (.286/.390/.573, 36 HR, 6.6 WAR)
3. Byron Buxton, OF, Minnesota Twins (.260/.342/.421, 3.7 WAR)
4. Yasiel Puig, OF, Dodgers (.272/.356/.494, 4.0 WAR)
5. Javier Baez, 2B, Chicago Cubs (.262/.315/.535, 36 HR, 4.5 WAR)
Baez, a shortstop now, will move to second base down the line and join Davey Johnson, Rogers Hornsby and Ryne Sandberg as the only second basemen in baseball to hit 40 home runs in a season. Baez will win his first NL MVP award while helping the Cubs make it to the World Series for the first time since 1945.
Buxton emerges as another threat to the top of the list, with Puig and Harper right there as well, giving us the best collection of outfield talent the game has seen in a while. This will be the second straight season that Harper isn't ejected from a game, and Puig will be working on his third consecutive year without a speeding ticket.
Rival execs aghast at Cabrera contract.
To understand just how terrible the industry reviews are of the Detroit Tigers' deal with Miguel Cabrera, it's appropriate to draw on the examples from the movie industry.
The Cabrera deal, in the eyes, of rival executives, is Disaster Movie bad.
The Cabrera deal, in the eyes of officials with other teams, is Battlefield Earth bad.
It's is Heaven's Gate bad. It is Sahara bad.
Folks from around the sport believe that Cabrera's deal is a guaranteed loser, and they do not understand what the Tigers could be thinking to sign on for this money pit that they know will have ripple effects on the entire industry.
"I just don't get it," said one high-ranking NL executive. "They lost their minds."
Said another: "It's an awful deal for the Tigers, and it's worse for baseball."
The criticism of the contract should not be confused with criticism of Cabrera, whose skills as a hitter are universally respected. But executives with teams other than the Tigers ticked off a bunch of ideas Thursday evening that they believe would have been better than Detroit giving Cabrera -- who turns 31 in 21 days -- the largest contract in the history of professional sports.
Among those:
1. The Tigers could've waited
"Why now?" was the most-asked question among officials who talked about the deal on Thursday evening. They noted that Cabrera would not be eligible for free agency until after the 2015 season, and the officials questioned believe that if the Tigers had taken the same offer to Cabrera in the fall or next spring, there's no chance he would've passed on it because of the scope of the contract.
"If they had waited, they would've gotten another year of information, another year to monitor his health," said one AL evaluator. "Maybe he'll suffer an injury this summer. He's a big guy, and you don't know how long his body will be able to hold up [at that weight]."
Said another: "If you give a player a long-term deal two seasons before free agency, you usually can expect some sort of discount. Where's the discount?"
An NL official: "When A-Rod got his deal from the Yankees, he was a free agent. Cabrera's not even close to free agency, and he gets the biggest deal ever. It makes no sense."
An NL evaluator: "Why assume risk when you don't have to?"
2. The Tigers could've saved money and reduced risk with a different contract structure
Under the terms of Cabrera's extension, he will get the highest annual salary for any player, ever. Executives with other teams are convinced the Tigers could've signed him without committing for so many seasons.
"You could give him $35 million for three seasons [in an extension]," said one official, "and you would've saved yourself more than $100 million in risk. Hell, you could give him $45 million a year for three years, and it would've been impossible for him to turn that down -- and you save money on the back end."
3. The Tigers could've used the David Ortiz deal as a talking point in the negotiations.
Defensively, Cabrera is viewed -- at best -- as a subpar first baseman, the position he will play in the immediate future, and rival officials assume that there will be a time within two or three years when the Tigers will shift Cabrera into a designated hitter role.
The highest-paid DH, by far, is David Ortiz, who just signed a one-year, $16 million extension. The DH spot is generally being deemphasized within the industry, with teams veering away from identifying a full-time player at that position -- and paying a high salary.
Elite starting pitchers, shortstops, second basemen, third basemen, center fielders are paid a premium because of how production at their respective positions is valued, and on the other hand, designated hitters and closers are generally at the bottom end of that scale.
"You could make the [negotiating] argument that his salary should go down over time, because once he becomes a DH, he loses some value," said an AL executive. "Maybe you could've said to him, ‘hey, we'll pay you X for the next few years, but after that, we'll have an adjustment.' But Cabrera's salary goes up."
The NL evaluator said, with a high degree of astonishment: "He's going to get double what Ortiz will make. At least with A-Rod, the Yankees had a player who was playing a premium position where his production is outsized. Cabrera adds nothing defensively. He actually is a negative defensively, and that's not going to improve over time."
Said an AL executive: "They basically gave him $100 million-plus in a retirement package."
Cabrera is poised to retire a Tiger, writes Lynn Henning.
• Dave Dombrowski and Max Scherzer cleared the air.
Around the league
• On Thursday's podcast, Tim Kurkjian previewed the American League West, and Derrick Goold ran through all things St. Louis. Well, the baseball team, anyway.
• CC Sabathia continues to pitch well with his diminished velocity.
• Prince Fielder hit a really, really long home run.
• The New York Mets have kept their wallets closed, writes Richard Sandomir and Ken Belson.
• Baseball's return to Montreal generates mixed feelings, writes Richard Griffin.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. At the outset of spring training -- before Grady Sizemore showed how great he could be -- Boston \ penciled-in plan was to use Daniel Nava in the leadoff spot against right-handers… and the Red Sox are sticking with that.
2. Hunter Pence says he won't be the prototypical No. 2 hitter.
3. Johnny Cueto is going to be the Opening Day starter.
4. Scott Diamond was magnanimous after being cut.
5. The Yankees sent some relief pitchers to the minors.
6. The Pirates are set at first base. For the moment.
7. The Astros claimed Alex Presley.
8. Hyun-Jin Ryu will start Sunday for the Dodgers.
9. Archie Bradley was sent to the minors.
10. Chris Young landed with Seattle.
The fight for jobs
1. Mike Olt won a job with the Cubs.
2. Jason Bartlett made the Twins' roster.
3. The Rockies picked some outfielders.
Dings and dents
1. Craig Breslow is going to open the season on the disabled list.
2. Nelson Cruz had a CAT scan.
3. Doug Fister has a lat strain.
4. Ed Lucas made the Marlins roster, and then got hurt.
Thursday's games
1. Scott Kazmir got the best of the Giants.
2. Corey Kluber went seven innings.
3. Aaron Harang made his debut with the Braves.
4. Tanner Scheppers had a good day.
AL East
• Xander Bogaert comes from humble roots, writes Stan Grossfeld.
• Baltimore's rotation is full of potential this year, writes Dan Connolly.
• Drew Hutchison looks like a keeper, writes Mike Rutsey.
• Tampa Bay is sticking with its rotation plan.
• The Rays are optimistic, writes Marc Topkin.
AL Central
• Here are five things the Royals learned, from Andy McCullough.
• Nick Swisher likes everything about the 2014 Indians.
• Adam Dunn is thinking full time.
AL West
• As noted within this Steve Kroner piece, Yoenis Cespedes hit the ball hard.
• Donnie Murphy is making an impression with Texas.
• The Angels are rolling.
• Ian Stewart is looking to rebound.
• The Mariners have taken a risk, writes Jerry Brewer.
NL East
• If the Mets don't pay up with Matt Harvey, the Yankees could, writes Joel Sherman.
• The Nationals will utilize defensive shifts this season.
• Matt Gelb writes about Ryan Howard and the question of whether he can bounce back.
• Dan Uggla has momentum coming out of spring training.
NL Central
• The Reds have some roster issues still in the air.
• Stephen Piscotty is this year's Michael Wacha.
• Rolling their spending forward could give the Cubs a chance to make a splash, writes Gordon Wittenmyer.
• Ryan Braun is comfortable with his move to right field.
• Starling Marte wants to stay with the Pirates.
NL West
• The Padres' success could be contingent on staying healthy.
Other stuff
• Some teams are rolling out new items on their ballpark menus, leaving us to wonder if we should applaud, or be appalled.
The White Sox: An three-pound ice cream palooza. From the story: The sundae's foundation is four scoops each of vanilla, chocolate and strawberry ice cream. It comes drizzled with caramel, strawberry sauce and chocolate syrup, and includes two bananas, whipped cream and cherries. It will weigh about 3 pounds and cost $17.
The Rangers: Bacon on a stick. From the story: At $7 per piece, the new "bacon on a stick" at Globe Life Park will become available Monday, March 31, when the Rangers' season begins. It's dipped in maple glaze before being served, fork-free, to customers.
The Diamondbacks: A corn dog, with everything. From the story: It's an 18-inch corn dog stuffed with cheddar cheese, jalapenos and bacon, served with a side of fries. The cost? A cool $25.
• A federal judge is going to meet today with some involved in the Astros' network.
• Barry Larkin is excited to throw out the first pitch Monday.
And today will be better than yesterday.
The Cabrera deal, in the eyes, of rival executives, is Disaster Movie bad.
The Cabrera deal, in the eyes of officials with other teams, is Battlefield Earth bad.
It's is Heaven's Gate bad. It is Sahara bad.
Folks from around the sport believe that Cabrera's deal is a guaranteed loser, and they do not understand what the Tigers could be thinking to sign on for this money pit that they know will have ripple effects on the entire industry.
"I just don't get it," said one high-ranking NL executive. "They lost their minds."
Said another: "It's an awful deal for the Tigers, and it's worse for baseball."
The criticism of the contract should not be confused with criticism of Cabrera, whose skills as a hitter are universally respected. But executives with teams other than the Tigers ticked off a bunch of ideas Thursday evening that they believe would have been better than Detroit giving Cabrera -- who turns 31 in 21 days -- the largest contract in the history of professional sports.
Among those:
1. The Tigers could've waited
"Why now?" was the most-asked question among officials who talked about the deal on Thursday evening. They noted that Cabrera would not be eligible for free agency until after the 2015 season, and the officials questioned believe that if the Tigers had taken the same offer to Cabrera in the fall or next spring, there's no chance he would've passed on it because of the scope of the contract.
"If they had waited, they would've gotten another year of information, another year to monitor his health," said one AL evaluator. "Maybe he'll suffer an injury this summer. He's a big guy, and you don't know how long his body will be able to hold up [at that weight]."
Said another: "If you give a player a long-term deal two seasons before free agency, you usually can expect some sort of discount. Where's the discount?"
An NL official: "When A-Rod got his deal from the Yankees, he was a free agent. Cabrera's not even close to free agency, and he gets the biggest deal ever. It makes no sense."
An NL evaluator: "Why assume risk when you don't have to?"
2. The Tigers could've saved money and reduced risk with a different contract structure
Under the terms of Cabrera's extension, he will get the highest annual salary for any player, ever. Executives with other teams are convinced the Tigers could've signed him without committing for so many seasons.
"You could give him $35 million for three seasons [in an extension]," said one official, "and you would've saved yourself more than $100 million in risk. Hell, you could give him $45 million a year for three years, and it would've been impossible for him to turn that down -- and you save money on the back end."
3. The Tigers could've used the David Ortiz deal as a talking point in the negotiations.
Defensively, Cabrera is viewed -- at best -- as a subpar first baseman, the position he will play in the immediate future, and rival officials assume that there will be a time within two or three years when the Tigers will shift Cabrera into a designated hitter role.
The highest-paid DH, by far, is David Ortiz, who just signed a one-year, $16 million extension. The DH spot is generally being deemphasized within the industry, with teams veering away from identifying a full-time player at that position -- and paying a high salary.
Elite starting pitchers, shortstops, second basemen, third basemen, center fielders are paid a premium because of how production at their respective positions is valued, and on the other hand, designated hitters and closers are generally at the bottom end of that scale.
"You could make the [negotiating] argument that his salary should go down over time, because once he becomes a DH, he loses some value," said an AL executive. "Maybe you could've said to him, ‘hey, we'll pay you X for the next few years, but after that, we'll have an adjustment.' But Cabrera's salary goes up."
The NL evaluator said, with a high degree of astonishment: "He's going to get double what Ortiz will make. At least with A-Rod, the Yankees had a player who was playing a premium position where his production is outsized. Cabrera adds nothing defensively. He actually is a negative defensively, and that's not going to improve over time."
Said an AL executive: "They basically gave him $100 million-plus in a retirement package."
Cabrera is poised to retire a Tiger, writes Lynn Henning.
• Dave Dombrowski and Max Scherzer cleared the air.
Around the league
• On Thursday's podcast, Tim Kurkjian previewed the American League West, and Derrick Goold ran through all things St. Louis. Well, the baseball team, anyway.
• CC Sabathia continues to pitch well with his diminished velocity.
• Prince Fielder hit a really, really long home run.
• The New York Mets have kept their wallets closed, writes Richard Sandomir and Ken Belson.
• Baseball's return to Montreal generates mixed feelings, writes Richard Griffin.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. At the outset of spring training -- before Grady Sizemore showed how great he could be -- Boston \ penciled-in plan was to use Daniel Nava in the leadoff spot against right-handers… and the Red Sox are sticking with that.
2. Hunter Pence says he won't be the prototypical No. 2 hitter.
3. Johnny Cueto is going to be the Opening Day starter.
4. Scott Diamond was magnanimous after being cut.
5. The Yankees sent some relief pitchers to the minors.
6. The Pirates are set at first base. For the moment.
7. The Astros claimed Alex Presley.
8. Hyun-Jin Ryu will start Sunday for the Dodgers.
9. Archie Bradley was sent to the minors.
10. Chris Young landed with Seattle.
The fight for jobs
1. Mike Olt won a job with the Cubs.
2. Jason Bartlett made the Twins' roster.
3. The Rockies picked some outfielders.
Dings and dents
1. Craig Breslow is going to open the season on the disabled list.
2. Nelson Cruz had a CAT scan.
3. Doug Fister has a lat strain.
4. Ed Lucas made the Marlins roster, and then got hurt.
Thursday's games
1. Scott Kazmir got the best of the Giants.
2. Corey Kluber went seven innings.
3. Aaron Harang made his debut with the Braves.
4. Tanner Scheppers had a good day.
AL East
• Xander Bogaert comes from humble roots, writes Stan Grossfeld.
• Baltimore's rotation is full of potential this year, writes Dan Connolly.
• Drew Hutchison looks like a keeper, writes Mike Rutsey.
• Tampa Bay is sticking with its rotation plan.
• The Rays are optimistic, writes Marc Topkin.
AL Central
• Here are five things the Royals learned, from Andy McCullough.
• Nick Swisher likes everything about the 2014 Indians.
• Adam Dunn is thinking full time.
AL West
• As noted within this Steve Kroner piece, Yoenis Cespedes hit the ball hard.
• Donnie Murphy is making an impression with Texas.
• The Angels are rolling.
• Ian Stewart is looking to rebound.
• The Mariners have taken a risk, writes Jerry Brewer.
NL East
• If the Mets don't pay up with Matt Harvey, the Yankees could, writes Joel Sherman.
• The Nationals will utilize defensive shifts this season.
• Matt Gelb writes about Ryan Howard and the question of whether he can bounce back.
• Dan Uggla has momentum coming out of spring training.
NL Central
• The Reds have some roster issues still in the air.
• Stephen Piscotty is this year's Michael Wacha.
• Rolling their spending forward could give the Cubs a chance to make a splash, writes Gordon Wittenmyer.
• Ryan Braun is comfortable with his move to right field.
• Starling Marte wants to stay with the Pirates.
NL West
• The Padres' success could be contingent on staying healthy.
Other stuff
• Some teams are rolling out new items on their ballpark menus, leaving us to wonder if we should applaud, or be appalled.
The White Sox: An three-pound ice cream palooza. From the story: The sundae's foundation is four scoops each of vanilla, chocolate and strawberry ice cream. It comes drizzled with caramel, strawberry sauce and chocolate syrup, and includes two bananas, whipped cream and cherries. It will weigh about 3 pounds and cost $17.
The Rangers: Bacon on a stick. From the story: At $7 per piece, the new "bacon on a stick" at Globe Life Park will become available Monday, March 31, when the Rangers' season begins. It's dipped in maple glaze before being served, fork-free, to customers.
The Diamondbacks: A corn dog, with everything. From the story: It's an 18-inch corn dog stuffed with cheddar cheese, jalapenos and bacon, served with a side of fries. The cost? A cool $25.
• A federal judge is going to meet today with some involved in the Astros' network.
• Barry Larkin is excited to throw out the first pitch Monday.
And today will be better than yesterday.
Miguel Cabrera’s Terrible and Understandable Contract.
Yesterday, the Tigers agreed to make Miguel Cabrera the highest paid player in baseball history. If you look at the entirety of their future financial commitments to him as one single entity rather than two separate agreements, then this is the biggest contract in U.S. sports history. Over the next decade, the Tigers have agreed to pay Cabrera $292 million, a staggering figure for any player, and even more stunning given the context in which it was handed out. Cabrera turns 31 in less than a month. He wasn’t eligible to hit the free agent market for another two years. The contract begins with his age-33 season, and yet, without the benefit of free agency as leverage, he got more for eight years than Robinson Cano got for 10.
As you might imagine, I have a lot of thoughts about this contract. They don’t all agree with each other. So, let’s just go through the things I believe about this deal.
Point: The Tigers simply didn’t have to do this.
The Tigers already controlled Cabrera’s rights for the next two seasons, and were completely within their rights to tell him that they were going to hold off on talking about a new deal until next winter. This isn’t a young player with breakout potential whose cost could dramatically increase as he gets closer to free agency. In reality, Cabrera’s value can only really go down, given that even he likely can’t put up another 192 wRC+ season. The Tigers already paid for the rights to his 2014 and 2015 seasons, and while Cabrera might have wanted a long term commitment, they didn’t have to give him one now.
Counter Point: Deciding not to extend is a decision not to re-sign.
It’s easy to say that the Tigers could have just let Cabrera play out these final two years and then let the market tell him he wasn’t worth 8/$248M, but in practice, elite players who aren’t signed to long term extensions simply do not re-sign with their original clubs when they hit the free agent market. It just doesn’t happen.
Over the last five off-seasons, there have been 30 free agent contracts signed with a total value of $50 million or more. Of those 30 free agent contracts, exactly one — Derek Jeter — re-signed with the team that passed on giving him an extension before he got to free agency. Every other premium free agent changed teams, and realistically, we could argue that Jeter wasn’t really a premium free agent after the 2010 season, landing a $56 million guarantee only because of his history with the Yankees.
There’s just no recent example of a team telling a superstar that they weren’t interested in a pre-free agent extension and still managing to keep that player around. Not extending Cabrera would have simply been a decision to let Cabrera leave after the 2015 season and finish his career with another team. It is incompatible with the facts to suggest that the Tigers could have let him play out his contract and then re-signed him once they had more time to evaluate how well he had started to age. It doesn’t happen. Players who are not offered extensions don’t stick around. If the Tigers told Cabrera that they’d negotiate with him in two years, history strongly suggests he would not have stayed in Detroit. If they wanted to keep him beyond 2015, they had to give him an extension at some point before he reached free agency.
Point: This second half of this contract is going to be a disaster for the Tigers.
As good as Miguel Cabrera is now, the history of big heavy guys in their mid-to-late 30s is almost universally awful. Guys the size of Miguel Cabrera just don’t age well, as their bodies begin to betray them and they spend significant periods of time on the disabled list. We may already be seeing the beginnings of Cabrera’s physical decline, and his September performance was a reminder of how human a superstar can be at less than 100%.
Even with the move back to first base and the ability to DH if need be, Cabrera is unlikely to remain a full time, everyday player for the length of his contract. Even if the hitting skills don’t diminish, the durability will, and the latter portion of Frank Thomas‘ career — 400 to 500 good but not elite plate appearances per year — should be a realistic expectation for Cabrera during his new deal. He might not even lose his natural ability to hit a baseball, but it’s hard to earn $30 million per year from the disabled list.
Counter Point: Mike Ilitch probably doesn’t care much about the long term ramifications.
The Tigers owner is 84 years old. We can talk all we want about the folly of signing Cabrera through his age-40 season, but perhaps more relevantly, the Tigers just signed Cabrera through Ilitch’s age-93 season. Without being too morbid, I think you can make a pretty solid case that an 84 year old should put a very low value on what will happen 10 years into the future. If anyone should place a significant value on the present at the expense of the future, it is the age bracket to which Mr. Ilitch belongs. As they say, you can’t take it with you, and no one is going to throw a huge parade honoring his late career fiscal responsibility.
If he wants to see the team win a World Series while he’s alive, letting Miguel Cabrera walk is a poor decision. This move is almost certainly destructive to the organization’s long term future, but it probably isn’t very destructive to Mike Ilitch’s long term future, and he’s the guy holding the checkbook.
Counter Counter Point: Team owners should act as organizational stewards, not self interested overlords.
The Tigers franchise will not pass with Mr. Ilitch, so there’s a very decent chance that he has simply spent someone else’s future money to help improve his own odds of seeing the team win a World Series. He’s within his rights to do so, and no one is going to shy away from buying a hugely profitable Major League franchise simply because of one large liability on the books, but there’s an ethical argument to be made that owners have a duty to protect the franchise’s best interests even if they aren’t aligned with their own personal best interests.
While buying a team gives you the ability to use it as your own personal toy, professional sports franchises aren’t really private entities; they exist for the shared enjoyment of many. And the city of Detroit and Tigers fans everywhere are going to pay a toll due to this decision. This contract may make all the sense in the world for an elderly owner, but that doesn’t make it the right move for the franchise, and if one believes than an owner should act as a steward for the organization, than this contract is still irresponsible even if it’s rational for Mr. Ilitch to sign it.
Point: The Tigers are rich, so they don’t need to worry about spending money as efficiently as possible.
The Tigers have an estimated 2014 payroll of around $160 million, so they certainly do not have to operate on the same kind of budget as teams like the A’s. They have a new TV contract coming, and the sport as a whole is flooded with cash, so even with this contract, it’s not like the Tigers financial solvency is being threatened. Part of the value of having a big budget is that it allows you to overpay for great players without it crippling the franchise. The Giants won two World Series titles with Barry Zito on the books, after all. As long as they keep running up payrolls of $150+ million, having one bad $30 million contract on the books won’t kill them.
Counter Point: Funds are never unlimited; wasting resources is never helpful.
Even with their $160 million payroll, the Tigers are going into Opening Day with Rajai Davis in left field and some combination of Alex Gonzalez or Andrew Romine at shortstop. The Tigers have two glaring needs to upgrade, and yet are still passing on available quality veterans due to concerns about their cost. There is no such thing as a team that simply has so much money that salary is not a prohibitive restriction to adding talent. The Dodgers have the most expensive roster in baseball history and are starting a replacement level scrub at second base. The Yankees are the Yankees and boast an infield that might not be better than the Astros.
Money is always a constraint, and the money that the Tigers have just spent on an aging Cabrera will be money that can’t go to other players to fill other needs. There’s always an opportunity cost to signing a player, and if that player doesn’t produce enough value to justify his salary, it is detrimental to the franchise. Even rich franchises. Having Miguel Cabrera is great until having Miguel Cabrera is why you also have Alex Gonzalez.
Point: This contract is a ridiculous overpay.
The point of a pre-free agent extension is that a team gets a discount in exchange for taking away the player’s risk of injury before he gets a chance to land a big contract in free agency. By giving Cabrera the equivalent of 10/$292M when he was two years away from free agency, the Tigers are implicitly arguing that his open market value this winter would have been something more along the lines of $325 to $350 million.
There’s no reasonable justification for that valuation, not when Robinson Cano topped at $240 million and only had a single bidder over $175M. One can rationally prefer Cabrera to Cano, but there’s no way that Cabrera is 30% to 40% more valuable. Or, to put things into the Tigers own valuation formula, there’s no reasonable argument that Cabrera is twice as valuable as Max Scherzer, even though their final offer to him was less than half of what they have now committed to Cabrera. If the Tigres are lucky, they’ll end up paying something like $9 million per win over the life of Cabrera’s deal, and that’s including the two years that they already had under control. If they really wanted to throw this kind of money around, they simply could have done better than signing up for Cabrera’s entire decline phase.
Counter Point: There isn’t one. This deal is a ridiculous overpay.
I understand why the Tigers wanted to keep Miguel Cabrera around for the rest of his career. He’s going to go into the Hall of Fame as a Tiger, and he’ll be remembered as one of the greatest players to ever wear the Detroit uniform. It’s hard to let those guys leave. The Cardinals are pretty happy they let Albert Pujols go, though, and in a few years, the Tigers will wish they had let Cabrera go too.
As you might imagine, I have a lot of thoughts about this contract. They don’t all agree with each other. So, let’s just go through the things I believe about this deal.
Point: The Tigers simply didn’t have to do this.
The Tigers already controlled Cabrera’s rights for the next two seasons, and were completely within their rights to tell him that they were going to hold off on talking about a new deal until next winter. This isn’t a young player with breakout potential whose cost could dramatically increase as he gets closer to free agency. In reality, Cabrera’s value can only really go down, given that even he likely can’t put up another 192 wRC+ season. The Tigers already paid for the rights to his 2014 and 2015 seasons, and while Cabrera might have wanted a long term commitment, they didn’t have to give him one now.
Counter Point: Deciding not to extend is a decision not to re-sign.
It’s easy to say that the Tigers could have just let Cabrera play out these final two years and then let the market tell him he wasn’t worth 8/$248M, but in practice, elite players who aren’t signed to long term extensions simply do not re-sign with their original clubs when they hit the free agent market. It just doesn’t happen.
Over the last five off-seasons, there have been 30 free agent contracts signed with a total value of $50 million or more. Of those 30 free agent contracts, exactly one — Derek Jeter — re-signed with the team that passed on giving him an extension before he got to free agency. Every other premium free agent changed teams, and realistically, we could argue that Jeter wasn’t really a premium free agent after the 2010 season, landing a $56 million guarantee only because of his history with the Yankees.
There’s just no recent example of a team telling a superstar that they weren’t interested in a pre-free agent extension and still managing to keep that player around. Not extending Cabrera would have simply been a decision to let Cabrera leave after the 2015 season and finish his career with another team. It is incompatible with the facts to suggest that the Tigers could have let him play out his contract and then re-signed him once they had more time to evaluate how well he had started to age. It doesn’t happen. Players who are not offered extensions don’t stick around. If the Tigers told Cabrera that they’d negotiate with him in two years, history strongly suggests he would not have stayed in Detroit. If they wanted to keep him beyond 2015, they had to give him an extension at some point before he reached free agency.
Point: This second half of this contract is going to be a disaster for the Tigers.
As good as Miguel Cabrera is now, the history of big heavy guys in their mid-to-late 30s is almost universally awful. Guys the size of Miguel Cabrera just don’t age well, as their bodies begin to betray them and they spend significant periods of time on the disabled list. We may already be seeing the beginnings of Cabrera’s physical decline, and his September performance was a reminder of how human a superstar can be at less than 100%.
Even with the move back to first base and the ability to DH if need be, Cabrera is unlikely to remain a full time, everyday player for the length of his contract. Even if the hitting skills don’t diminish, the durability will, and the latter portion of Frank Thomas‘ career — 400 to 500 good but not elite plate appearances per year — should be a realistic expectation for Cabrera during his new deal. He might not even lose his natural ability to hit a baseball, but it’s hard to earn $30 million per year from the disabled list.
Counter Point: Mike Ilitch probably doesn’t care much about the long term ramifications.
The Tigers owner is 84 years old. We can talk all we want about the folly of signing Cabrera through his age-40 season, but perhaps more relevantly, the Tigers just signed Cabrera through Ilitch’s age-93 season. Without being too morbid, I think you can make a pretty solid case that an 84 year old should put a very low value on what will happen 10 years into the future. If anyone should place a significant value on the present at the expense of the future, it is the age bracket to which Mr. Ilitch belongs. As they say, you can’t take it with you, and no one is going to throw a huge parade honoring his late career fiscal responsibility.
If he wants to see the team win a World Series while he’s alive, letting Miguel Cabrera walk is a poor decision. This move is almost certainly destructive to the organization’s long term future, but it probably isn’t very destructive to Mike Ilitch’s long term future, and he’s the guy holding the checkbook.
Counter Counter Point: Team owners should act as organizational stewards, not self interested overlords.
The Tigers franchise will not pass with Mr. Ilitch, so there’s a very decent chance that he has simply spent someone else’s future money to help improve his own odds of seeing the team win a World Series. He’s within his rights to do so, and no one is going to shy away from buying a hugely profitable Major League franchise simply because of one large liability on the books, but there’s an ethical argument to be made that owners have a duty to protect the franchise’s best interests even if they aren’t aligned with their own personal best interests.
While buying a team gives you the ability to use it as your own personal toy, professional sports franchises aren’t really private entities; they exist for the shared enjoyment of many. And the city of Detroit and Tigers fans everywhere are going to pay a toll due to this decision. This contract may make all the sense in the world for an elderly owner, but that doesn’t make it the right move for the franchise, and if one believes than an owner should act as a steward for the organization, than this contract is still irresponsible even if it’s rational for Mr. Ilitch to sign it.
Point: The Tigers are rich, so they don’t need to worry about spending money as efficiently as possible.
The Tigers have an estimated 2014 payroll of around $160 million, so they certainly do not have to operate on the same kind of budget as teams like the A’s. They have a new TV contract coming, and the sport as a whole is flooded with cash, so even with this contract, it’s not like the Tigers financial solvency is being threatened. Part of the value of having a big budget is that it allows you to overpay for great players without it crippling the franchise. The Giants won two World Series titles with Barry Zito on the books, after all. As long as they keep running up payrolls of $150+ million, having one bad $30 million contract on the books won’t kill them.
Counter Point: Funds are never unlimited; wasting resources is never helpful.
Even with their $160 million payroll, the Tigers are going into Opening Day with Rajai Davis in left field and some combination of Alex Gonzalez or Andrew Romine at shortstop. The Tigers have two glaring needs to upgrade, and yet are still passing on available quality veterans due to concerns about their cost. There is no such thing as a team that simply has so much money that salary is not a prohibitive restriction to adding talent. The Dodgers have the most expensive roster in baseball history and are starting a replacement level scrub at second base. The Yankees are the Yankees and boast an infield that might not be better than the Astros.
Money is always a constraint, and the money that the Tigers have just spent on an aging Cabrera will be money that can’t go to other players to fill other needs. There’s always an opportunity cost to signing a player, and if that player doesn’t produce enough value to justify his salary, it is detrimental to the franchise. Even rich franchises. Having Miguel Cabrera is great until having Miguel Cabrera is why you also have Alex Gonzalez.
Point: This contract is a ridiculous overpay.
The point of a pre-free agent extension is that a team gets a discount in exchange for taking away the player’s risk of injury before he gets a chance to land a big contract in free agency. By giving Cabrera the equivalent of 10/$292M when he was two years away from free agency, the Tigers are implicitly arguing that his open market value this winter would have been something more along the lines of $325 to $350 million.
There’s no reasonable justification for that valuation, not when Robinson Cano topped at $240 million and only had a single bidder over $175M. One can rationally prefer Cabrera to Cano, but there’s no way that Cabrera is 30% to 40% more valuable. Or, to put things into the Tigers own valuation formula, there’s no reasonable argument that Cabrera is twice as valuable as Max Scherzer, even though their final offer to him was less than half of what they have now committed to Cabrera. If the Tigres are lucky, they’ll end up paying something like $9 million per win over the life of Cabrera’s deal, and that’s including the two years that they already had under control. If they really wanted to throw this kind of money around, they simply could have done better than signing up for Cabrera’s entire decline phase.
Counter Point: There isn’t one. This deal is a ridiculous overpay.
I understand why the Tigers wanted to keep Miguel Cabrera around for the rest of his career. He’s going to go into the Hall of Fame as a Tiger, and he’ll be remembered as one of the greatest players to ever wear the Detroit uniform. It’s hard to let those guys leave. The Cardinals are pretty happy they let Albert Pujols go, though, and in a few years, the Tigers will wish they had let Cabrera go too.
As I find more POV's, I'll post em.
- Jul 14, 2003
- 7,843
- 4,881
Money is good these days for the owners but they keep topping themselves with the bar they set, and the next player will need more and so on. Trout's agent best believe is ready.
Michael Rosenberg, SI.com:
Michael Rosenberg, SI.com:
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- Feb 8, 2013
- 2,385
- 280
Incredible.
Trout is going to get a billion dollars.
Seriously, he is.
These 30 year old dudes getting 10/300ish will be nothing compared to a guy that will be 25-26 and be even more valuable than they've been for their teams. He's going to get a 14 year - 900 million dollar offer or some ****.
Seriously, he is.
These 30 year old dudes getting 10/300ish will be nothing compared to a guy that will be 25-26 and be even more valuable than they've been for their teams. He's going to get a 14 year - 900 million dollar offer or some ****.
- Jan 20, 2002
- 54,301
- 31,850
how does the whole arbitration work?
trout gonna get a 750M deal when his time is up
trout gonna get a 750M deal when his time is up
- Jul 14, 2003
- 7,843
- 4,881
RE: Trout contract -- this was from John Heyman a couple weeks ago:
Hope this helps.
In certain specific instances, a player and team may choose to go through a salary arbitration hearing in order to determine that player’s salary for the upcoming season.
Players are eligible for arbitration hearings if they meet any of the following requirements:
● They have at least three full seasons of MLB service time, and less than six. Players with six or more years of service time become free agents after their contracts have expired, while players with less than six seasons are under team-control. Up until players have acquired three seasons of service time, their salary is determined solely by their team. For years three through six, players can take their salary demands to an arbitration panel if they can’t reach an agreement with their team.
● If they have less then three full seasons of MLB service time, but are within the top 22% of players with more than two years of service time. This is called the “Super Two” exception, and it often leads to top prospects being held down in the minor leagues until they have passed the Super Two threshold. For more on this, see our Super Two page.
If a player qualifies for arbitration, they can still reach a contract agreement with their team and choose not to go to a hearing. If the two sides cannot reach an agreement, though, both sides submit their salary request to an arbitration panel. A hearing is conducted, and both sides are allowed to state why they believe the player’s salary should be set at the level they specified. The arbitration panel — an unbiased, third party — then decides which case is stronger, and awards the player the salary they deem most appropriate.
Arbitration panels are notoriously old school, and tend to make their decisions based on player comparisons and traditional statistics like RBIs and Wins. If you are interested in finding arbitration comps for specific players, you can search past historical results using MLB Trade Rumors’ arbitration tracker tool.
It used to be that teams could offer soon-to-be free agents arbitration, and their draft pick compensation would be determined by if a player accepted or declined the offer. That has changed with the new CBA — see: Draft Pick Compensation for more details — and now teams can’t offer their free agents arbitration.
Teams must offer eligible players arbitration by December 12th, or else those players are non-tendered and released. After then, players and teams have until January 17th to reach an agreement, or else both sides must submit their salary demands to an arbitration panel. Hearings are conducted throughout the first few weeks of February.
Players are eligible for arbitration hearings if they meet any of the following requirements:
● They have at least three full seasons of MLB service time, and less than six. Players with six or more years of service time become free agents after their contracts have expired, while players with less than six seasons are under team-control. Up until players have acquired three seasons of service time, their salary is determined solely by their team. For years three through six, players can take their salary demands to an arbitration panel if they can’t reach an agreement with their team.
● If they have less then three full seasons of MLB service time, but are within the top 22% of players with more than two years of service time. This is called the “Super Two” exception, and it often leads to top prospects being held down in the minor leagues until they have passed the Super Two threshold. For more on this, see our Super Two page.
If a player qualifies for arbitration, they can still reach a contract agreement with their team and choose not to go to a hearing. If the two sides cannot reach an agreement, though, both sides submit their salary request to an arbitration panel. A hearing is conducted, and both sides are allowed to state why they believe the player’s salary should be set at the level they specified. The arbitration panel — an unbiased, third party — then decides which case is stronger, and awards the player the salary they deem most appropriate.
Arbitration panels are notoriously old school, and tend to make their decisions based on player comparisons and traditional statistics like RBIs and Wins. If you are interested in finding arbitration comps for specific players, you can search past historical results using MLB Trade Rumors’ arbitration tracker tool.
It used to be that teams could offer soon-to-be free agents arbitration, and their draft pick compensation would be determined by if a player accepted or declined the offer. That has changed with the new CBA — see: Draft Pick Compensation for more details — and now teams can’t offer their free agents arbitration.
Teams must offer eligible players arbitration by December 12th, or else those players are non-tendered and released. After then, players and teams have until January 17th to reach an agreement, or else both sides must submit their salary demands to an arbitration panel. Hearings are conducted throughout the first few weeks of February.
DeadsetAce
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- May 31, 2004
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