2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions

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I got to sleep for TWO HOURS AND THIS HAPPENS.

WHAT THE ****.

Terrible deal for us, by the way.
 
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The team isn't any worse now than it was yesterday, I ain't even mad. If Jed can stay healthy, I think the A's will end up winning this trade. The A's have the best depth in the AL, pitching/hitting/defense all has legitimate big league caliber depth.

C - Jaso/Norris
1B - Moss/Smith/Lowrie
2B - Weeks/Sizemore/Lowrie
SS- Nakajima/Lowrie
3B - Donaldson/Sizemore/Lowrie
OF - Cespedes/Young/Reddick/Coco/Smith


:x
 
For some reason at work, IE ***** with me when trying to do my posts with more than one spoiler. So get ready for about 100 posts in a row by me with one article :lol
 
Top 100 prospects of 2013 (76-100).
Welcome to ESPN Insider's 2013 ranking of the top 100 prospects in baseball.



This is my sixth such ranking for Insider, and there has been quite a bit of turnover from last year's list. The top four players from last year all received too much playing time in the majors in 2012 to qualify again; the top two, Mike Trout and Bryce Harper, won their respective leagues' rookie of the year awards. Baltimore's Manny Machado would have ranked second on this list but lost his rookie status in September after he crossed the 130 at-bat threshold. This year's list shows the depth in the minors right now in shortstops and right-handed pitching, with a shortage of talent behind the plate.



Through the Years
Past versions of Keith Law's top 100 prospect rankings.


2012: Trout repeats at No. 1
2011: Harper edged by Trout
2010: Heyward rises above
2009: Wieters leads the way
2008: Longoria is the man The Guidelines


• The rankings are limited to players who still have rookie eligibility; that means they have yet to exceed 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the majors and have not yet spent 45 days on the active roster of a major league club, excluding call-ups during the roster expansion period after Sept. 1.


• Only players who have signed professional contracts are eligible.



• I do not consider players with professional experience in Japan or Korea "prospects" for the purposes of this exercise, which means no Hyun-Jin Ryu (among others).



• When ranking players, I consider scouting reports on players -- usually my own, supplementing with conversations with other scouts and front-office executives as needed -- as well as performance, adjusted for age and context. I've made one adjustment in my ranking philosophy in recent years, favoring higher-upside prospects over lower-ceiling prospects who are closer to the majors. This better reflects how these players are valued now by front offices and scouting departments, and gives me a chance to deliver more information on prospects whose names or scouting reports might be new to you.



• I use the 20-80 grading scale in these comments to avoid saying "average" and "above average" thousands of times across the 100 player comments. On that scale, a grade of 50 equals major league average, 55 is above average, 60 is plus, 45 is fringy or below average, and so on. Giancarlo Stanton has 80 raw power. David Ortiz has 20 speed. An average fastball for a right-hander is 90-92 mph, with 1-2 mph off for a lefty.



• I've included last year's rank for players who appeared in the top 100 last offseason. An "ineligible" player (IE) was still an amateur at this time last January, whereas an "unranked" player (UR) was eligible but didn't make the cut. I've also tagged players who were on last year's sleepers list or list of 10 players who just missed the cut.




Law's complete top 100: Index | 1-25 | 26-50 | 51-75 | 76-100




Rank Player
76 Kyle Crick
Age: 20 (DOB: Nov. 30, 1992)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: San Francisco Giants
Top '12 Level: A (Augusta)
2012 ranking: UR

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
23IP
111.1W
7L
6ERA
2.51


SO
128BB
67H
75HR
1BAA
.193
Crick was the Giants' second-round pick in 2011, a Texas prep righty with a first-round arm but enough doubt that he could remain a starter to push him down in the draft. He hasn't answered all of those questions yet, but there's at least a higher chance now that he can start and end up a No. 2 in someone's rotation.

He'll pitch at 91-95, touching 97, and has a hard curveball in the upper 70s that almost tilts like a slider and is his primary out pitch. He's got a too-hard changeup without any action but has been developing a cutter that could help take the changeup's place as a weapon against lefties. There's effort in Crick's delivery, but it's not violent and nothing he can't learn to repeat; until he does, however, the command and control to be a starter won't be there.

He needs repetitions but not mechanical changes, other than working on staying on top of the ball rather than getting on the side of it, with that high-end starter upside if he can locate the fastball more consistently.



Rank Player
77 Lucas Giolito
Age: 18 (DOB: July 14, 1994)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Washington Nationals
Top '12 Level: Rookie (GCL)
2012 ranking: IE

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
1IP
2W
0L
0ERA
4.50


SO
1BB
0H
2HR
0BAA
.286
Giolito might have been the first high school right-hander selected first overall in the amateur draft had he not suffered a small tear in his right UCL, an injury that ended up requiring Tommy John surgery in July after he signed and threw two pro innings.

Before the initial injury, Giolito hit 100 mph working as a starter, sitting 93-98 with a hammer curveball that he could manipulate to get more or less angle. He'd become more aggressive with better command in his senior year, showing great maturity for a 17-year-old who was already on the map because of his size and arm strength.

He'll need to work on his changeup and I'm sure pro hitters will force him to refine his fastball command, which just requires reps he won't get until late this summer. If he comes back fully healthy and can pitch a little this year, he'll move up into the top 20 in 2014, and perhaps in the high end of that group.



Rank Player
78 Hak-Ju Lee
Age: 22 (DOB: Nov. 4, 1990)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: SS Organization: Tampa Bay Rays
Top '12 Level: AA (Montgomery)
2012 ranking: 12

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
116AB
475HR
4RBI
37SB
37


SO
102BB
51AVG
.261OBP
.336SLG
.360
Lee had an abysmal start to the year at the plate before the Rays got him to keep his hands back before his swing, stopping them from leaking forward, which was producing weaker contact and more whiffs.

After that, he had a strong two months before an August oblique injury ended his summer prematurely, but when he came to the Arizona Fall League, the leaking problem was worse than ever, leaving him cutting through the ball instead of staying back on it, and pitchers ate him alive with velocity.

He has a good eye, but that's only so useful when you can't hit many of the strikes you see. Lee is a plus defensive shortstop with a 70 arm and is a 70 runner who has improved his ability to translate that speed into baserunning value, so he'll play in the big leagues, probably everyday. Whether he's a stopgap or a long-term solution depends on the bat. The answer is in his hands.



Rank Player
79 Matt Barnes
Age: 22 (DOB: June 17, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Boston Red Sox
Top '12 Level: A (Salem)
2012 ranking: UR

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
25IP
119.2W
7L
5ERA
2.86


SO
133BB
29H
97HR
6BAA
.225
Barnes shocked a lot of scouts this year with the leap forward in his fastball command, working with it up and down, side to side, so even though he wasn't consistently 93-97 as he was in college he could still get outs and set up his off-speed stuff.

He's ditched the below-average slider that screwed him up in his junior year at UConn and pitched most of the season with an above-average downer curveball that he could throw for strikes. His changeup gradually improved over the year as the Red Sox forced him to throw it a number of times each game, but even in Salem he was still getting hitters on both sides of the plate out with the fastball.

Barnes was a little experienced to spend the whole year in A-ball, so his stat line overstates how advanced he is, but he looks like a solid mid-rotation guy who'll be at least league-average, with a chance to profile better than that because of how well he locates the fastball.



Rank Player
80 Clayton Blackburn
Age: 20 (DOB: Jan. 6, 1993)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: San Francisco Giants
Top '12 Level: A (San Jose)
2012 ranking: Sleeper

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
22IP
131.1W
8L
4ERA
2.54


SO
143BB
18H
116HR
3BAA
.232
Blackburn doesn't have the upside of his Augusta teammate (and fellow top-100 prospect) Kyle Crick, but has better present command and feel, meaning he's more likely to reach the big leagues as a starter but might not be more than a league-average starter in the end.

His fastball sits at 89-93 mph with very good sink, generating a ground out/air out ratio over 2.3 in low Class A last year, and he commands the pitch to both sides of the plate. He's got very good feel for his changeup, an average pitch already that projects as plus, but needs more consistency finishing his curveball, with a tendency to cast it -- think fishing -- instead.

At 6-foot-3, 220 pounds, Blackburn is very well-built and generates velocity without much effort, but his delivery is so easy that it might explain the lack of finish to the breaking ball. He's got a very high floor thanks to his size and fastball command, with a ceiling of a good No. 3 starter if the curveball comes on or he adds some unexpected velocity.



Rank Player
81 Alex Colome
Age: 23 (DOB: Dec. 31, 1988)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Tampa Bay Rays
Top '12 Level: AAA (Durham)
2012 ranking: UR

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
17IP
91.2W
8L
4ERA
3.44


SO
90BB
43H
81HR
3BAA
.244
Colome has a huge arm, a big fastball with good life in the mid-90s, an upper 80s cutter that blows up bats, and a curveball around 80 mph with tight rotation, as well as a show-me changeup that is still on the come.

His delivery isn't ideal for a starter -- he's got a short stride and gets very low on his front side, which probably impacts his command and might be hard to repeat 100 times a game, 33 times a year. He also missed time twice during the year, early on with an oblique strain, later with a lat injury, neither of which is serious but doesn't help make the case that he'll be durable as a starter.

Given how electric the stuff is, however, I'd rather bet on the possibility he's a high-end starter, even if it's even money that he ends up in the 'pen, because this kind of repertoire in a guy who might be able to throw even 160 innings is so rare.



Rank Player
82 Jake Marisnick
Age: 21 (DOB: March 30, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: CF Organization: Miami Marlins
Top '12 Level: AA (New Hampshire)
2012 ranking: 47

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
120AB
489HR
8RBI
50SB
24


SO
100BB
37AVG
.249OBP
.321SLG
.399
Marisnick was one of the two significant prospects heading to Miami from Toronto in the Marlins' firesale deal in November, with Justin Nicolino (No. 62) the other one. Marisnick has a great set of tools, grading out as above-average in running, arm, power, and glove, but he's shown some holes at the plate that have reduced his probability of becoming an above-average regular.

His approach at the plate is not great, as he's beatable both on breaking stuff and on hard stuff up or in. He has virtually no load and doesn't get extended well enough before contact to let that raw power, visible in BP, play in games. Some of this is a matter of mechanical adjustments, but there will probably always be a lot of swing and miss to Marisnick's game, and he may ride to the majors on his defense and running speed more than on his bat.



Rank Player
83 Delino DeShields Jr.
Age: 20 (DOB: Aug. 16, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: 2B Organization: Houston Astros
Top '12 Level: A (Lancaster)
2012 ranking: UR

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
135AB
537HR
12RBI
61SB
101


SO
131BB
83AVG
.287OBP
.389SLG
.428
In any other year, DeShields' minor league stolen base total of 101 across two levels would have generated a lot of excitement -- but he wasn't within 50 of the minor league lead thanks to Billy Hamilton.

DeShields' 80-grade speed is exciting, but his evolution as a hitter and second baseman has returned him to prospect status after a year off the radar. DeShields repeated the Sally League and performed extremely well for Lexington, earning a late-season promotion to hitter-friendly Lancaster.

He has a short swing with good power for his size -- maybe 10-15 homers at his peak -- but is more geared toward contact, getting a nice boost to his OBP from the patience he showed this year. A center fielder and running back in high school, DeShields has worked to make himself playable at second base, a 45 at best right now but with a chance to be a solid average 50, showing great range but struggling a little with his hands and footwork around the bag.

He might not ever justify that No. 8 overall selection in the 2010 draft, but he's on track for a better career than lots of guys picked right behind him.



Rank Player
84 Luis Heredia
Age: 18 (DOB: Aug. 10, 1994)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Pittsburgh Pirates
Top '12 Level: A (Jamestown)
2012 ranking: Just missed

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
14IP
66.1W
4L
2ERA
2.71


SO
40BB
20H
53HR
2BAA
.224
Heredia signed out of Mexico in 2010 for a $2.6 million bonus, but his stuff and his body are very advanced for his age, and he should be ready for a tougher test in a full-season league this year.

He will pitch at 90-95 with an above-average changeup now, occasionally showing better velocity; his curveball is still below-average, although it's improving with reps. His fastball has some riding life up in the zone and he will throw it inside to left-handers. Heredia's got a slight hook in the back of his delivery but his arm is very quick, accelerating with minimal effort, and he gets on top of the ball really well; on the downside, his arm is pretty late relative to when his front leg lands and he doesn't finish well over his front side.

He's got a mature body so there's little velocity projection here; the hope is that the breaking ball comes with experience and that the Pirates can help him smooth out his delivery so he can throw more strikes. I don't see ace potential here, more like a No. 2 or No. 3 starter, someone who's above-average but not top 10 in the league, even if the curveball becomes an average pitch.



Rank Player
85 Trevor Story
Age: 20 (DOB: Nov. 15, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: SS Organization: Colorado Rockies
Top '12 Level: A (Asheville)
2012 ranking: UR

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
122AB
477HR
18RBI
63SB
15


SO
121BB
60AVG
.277OBP
.367SLG
.505
Story came out of high school as a defensive wizard at short with a plus arm but big questions about whether he'd hit. Even accounting for the hitter's paradise of Asheville, Story had a solid full-season debut and looks like he'll hit enough to be a solid everyday shortstop for someone in about three years -- maybe even the Rockies if Troy Tulowitzki's health woes continue.

His swing still gets long, as he loads his hands deep and somewhat low, but he has good wrist strength and can get the bat head through the zone in plenty of time to drive the ball out to the gaps. He's not a great runner but is an instinctive player who can steal a base and whose feet are agile enough for him to stay at shortstop long term, along with that aforementioned arm strength.

I would like to see him hit outside of Asheville -- he had a large home/road split (.961 OPS at home, .775 away), although that's hardly definitive -- before buying into the bat completely, but he's already come in well ahead of expectations and now projects as an average regular or better here.



Rank Player
86 Jarred Cosart
Age: 22 (DOB: May 25, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Houston Astros
Top '12 Level: AAA (Oklahoma City)
2012 ranking: 78

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
21IP
114.2W
6L
7ERA
3.30


SO
92BB
51H
109HR
3BAA
.250
Cosart had the best pure stuff of any pitcher in the Arizna Fall League this year, and more often than not he got his brains beat in by AFL hitters because he couldn't locate.

He comes slightly across his body with big-time stuff, 94-98 mph on his fastball, along with a hard downer breaking ball at 79-82 and a deceptive changeup at 80-82 that works well but that he doesn't use often. Between the cross-body arm action and the way he cuts himself off to the plate, however, it's hard for Cosart to throw quality strikes, especially to his glove side, so while he can hold his velocity and has the three pitches he'd need to start, he might never have the command to do so.

Houston's big league rotation is weak enough that it might make sense to give Cosart a year or even two to see if he can throw enough strikes to let his stuff play, but if that can't happen, he'd be one of the best closer prospects around.



Rank Player
87 Roberto Osuna
Age: 17 (DOB: Feb. 7, 1995)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Toronto Blue Jays
Top '12 Level: A (Vancouver)
2012 ranking: UR

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
12IP
43.2W
2L
0ERA
2.27


SO
49BB
15H
31HR
1BAA
.201
Osuna is just 17 years old but entered Toronto's system with pro experience in the relatively high-level Mexican League, as well as good bloodlines from a father who pitched in that same league and an uncle, Antonio, who pitched in the majors, mostly for the Dodgers.

He gets high marks for how advanced he is on the mound, with good control and a strong feel for the art of setting hitters up, even though his stuff isn't quite up to the same level yet. He topped out at 97 mph last summer and will sit in the low 90s, with a plus changeup that has good action on it; he'll throw the change in any count to hitters on either side of the plate. The breaking ball is the question mark, as he throws a slider to spots right now rather than letting it go, putting more power into it almost like a cutter would have.

He can pitch with his fastball and has such feel for the changeup that, given his present control, he looks like at least a solid league-average starter, with substantial upside if that slider becomes a viable third weapon for him.



Rank Player
88 Joe Ross
Age: 19 (DOB: May 21, 1993)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: San Diego Padres
Top '11 Level: A (Ft. Wayne)
2012 ranking: 49

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
15IP
54.2W
0L
4ERA
4.28


SO
56BB
22H
51HR
3BAA
.249
Ross generated a ton of buzz in spring training when he was hitting 97 mph with that same, easy delivery he showed the previous spring and fall in his draft year.

After a so-so April, shoulder tendinitis struck in early May and the Padres were very cautious with him, shutting him down for two months and bringing him back slowly -- probably a wise move, but leaving Ross with a lost year development-wise.

When he's healthy, he'll pitch at 90-95 mph, getting on top of the ball well from a three-quarters arm slot. His changeup is already an average pitch and projects as above-average to plus, while his hard slurve was making good progress and could have used the 200 or so reps he missed while injured. Ross is very athletic with a far, far cleaner delivery than his brother Tyson has, and I like him as a breakout candidate this year if he can get 120 or so innings in without further arm trouble.

Prior to that DL stint I had him as a future No. 2 starter, and that's still his upside if the shoulder doesn't bark a second time.



Rank Player
89 A.J. Cole
Age: 21 (DOB: Jan. 5, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Washington Nationals
Top '12 Level: A (Stockton)
2012 ranking: 33

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
27IP
133.2W
6L
10ERA
3.70


SO
133BB
29H
138HR
14BAA
.267
Cole was traded to Oakland before the 2012 season in the Gio Gonzalez deal, had a disastrous first half in high Class A, found himself demoted to low A where he threw as well as you'd expect, then was dealt back to Washington in this winter's three-team deal involving Michael Morse and John Jaso.

He seemed off when I saw him in March, missing a few miles per hour off his fastball and struggling to keep his arm slot up, but his issues in the Cal League went beyond that, with his stuff less crisp across the board and real trouble dealing with adversity on the mound. After his demotion, his stuff ticked back up into the mid-90s and he'd flash an above-average curve and changeup, throwing more strikes and pitching with confidence again. His arm can get deep on the back side while he gets too short out front, less than ideal for a 6-foot-4 pitcher who should be extending over his front side to release the ball closer to the plate.

His ceiling is still extremely high, but 2012 was a huge setback, and his probability of reaching the ceiling of a top 20 pitcher in the league, is a lot lower than it seemed to be last winter.



Rank Player
90 Cody Buckel
Age: 20 (DOB: June 18, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Texas Rangers
Top '12 Level: AA (Frisco)
2012 ranking: Sleeper

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
26IP
144.2W
10L
8ERA
2.49


SO
159BB
48H
105HR
9BAA
.206
Buckel's name might be most familiar to non-Ranger fans for his inclusion in pretty much every Rangers trade rumor this offseason, including all the ultimately meaningless offers to and from Arizona for Justin Upton.

He's a command right-hander with a solid four-pitch mix and a very athletic, easy delivery, but doesn't have huge upside because of a lack of physical projection. What you see with Buckel is what you'll get, but that looks like it'll be enough for a league-average starter, probably not too far off in the future.

He'll pitch with a solid-average fastball, and his curveball is his best pitch, an above-average offering with good two-plane break. Buckel might have another half-grade of fastball in there, but it's most likely that he'll pitch with what we see now, four average to slightly above-average pitches, and good command thanks to a repeatable delivery, making him a possible No. 3 starter in the majors.



Rank Player
91 Adam Eaton
Age: 24 (DOB: Dec. 6, 1988)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: CF Organization: Minnesota Twins
Top '12 Level: Majors (D-backs)
2012 ranking: UR

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
130AB
528HR
7RBI
48SB
44


SO
76BB
59AVG
.375OBP
.456SLG
.523
Eaton was a favorite of scouts in the 2011 Arizona Fall League as a pure hitter who played all-out but didn't look like he'd profile as an everyday guy -- he didn't have the power to play a corner, but didn't have the range to handle center. That assessment has changed after a stellar 2012 season.

He worked on his defense to the point where he should be a solid-average glove in center, his September struggles with the roof in Chase Field notwithstanding, which combined with his patience at the plate gives him a chance to be an above-average regular. Eaton's got a little loop and length in his swing, but his hand-eye is very good and he puts himself into a lot of hitters' counts, seeing a ton of pitches (3.96 per plate appearance in his brief major-league trial) and drawing enough walks to keep his OBP up.

He's an above-average runner who can cover the ground in center but needs to continue to improve his reads on balls off the bat, with a future average glove in center. He's likely a 10-12 homer guy in a neutral park but should have high-.300 OBPs to keep him in the lineup, even if he's just a fringy regular in a corner.

With Arizona dealing away two-thirds of its starting outfield this offseason, Eaton is the best in-house option to play center, and he's also the D-backs best leadoff candidate, which should give him 500 or more at-bats this year to show he can be at least a league-average regular in center.



Rank Player
92 Adam Morgan
Age: 22 (DOB: Dec. Feb. 27, 1990)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: LHP Organization: Philadelphia Phillies
Top '12 Level: AA (Reading)
2012 ranking: UR

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
27IP
158.2W
8L
11ERA
3.35


SO
169BB
39H
137HR
9BAA
.235
Morgan was a solid enough college lefty, pitching primarily off his secondary stuff while at Alabama because college hitters would chase it, but showing just an adequate fastball and nothing else to really distinguish him from the raft of back-end starter candidates coming out of the college ranks each year.

In his first full year in pro ball, however, Morgan starting pitching more off his fastball and everything he threw ticked upward, adding a grade of velocity while seeing both his curveball and the changeup become more effective. He's also shown he can win games with any of those three pitches as his go-to pitch in pitchers' counts, with impressive feel and command of all three offerings.

He'll pitch with a solid-average fastball now, flashing a little above that, with a little late life, and turns the changeup over well from his three-quarters arm slot. I'd like to see him extend a little further over his front side, which might help the fastball play up even more, but I see a solid No. 4 starter here very soon with the upside of a good No. 3.



Rank Player
93 Martin Perez
Age: 21 (DOB: Apr. 4, 1991)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: LHP Organization: Texas Rangers
Top '12 Level: Majors (Rangers)
2012 ranking: 20

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
22IP
127W
7L
6ERA
4.25


SO
69BB
56H
122HR
10BAA
.297
At some point, Perez is going to have to take that plus fastball-changeup combination and actually miss some bats, because it doesn't matter how good your stuff is if it doesn't produce results.

His arsenal is the same as it's been for the last few years he's been on this list -- fastball up to 97, sitting 92-95, with a great changeup at 82-85 that succeeds both because of Perez' arm speed and the pitch's hard, late fading action. His curveball is an average pitch, somewhat effective against left-handed hitters but so much slower than his other pitches that it's not useful against right-handers.

Perez's struggles are functions of inconsistency, poor command, and some immaturity on the mound, all of which are interconnected; he'll turn 22 in April, so he's young enough to improve, but it's a concern that he's shown little progress in the art of pitching over nearly 600 pro innings.

You can't give up on a lefty with this kind of pure stuff, but it's time for Perez to show he can convert it into zeros on the scoreboard.



Rank Player
94 J.R. Graham
Age: 23 (DOB: Jan. 14, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Atlanta Braves
Top '12 Level: AA (Mississippi)
2012 ranking: Sleeper

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
26IP
148W
12L
2ERA
2.80


SO
110BB
17H
123HR
8BAA
.228
Graham threw up to 100 mph as a starter for Santa Clara and still works at 94-98 going every fifth day, getting good plane on the pitch despite his 6-foot frame so that he generates a ton of ground balls, with a ground out/air out ratio above 2.0 across at both levels where he pitched in 2012.

He pairs the fastball with an above-average-to-plus curveball that's ahead of his changeup, although he only showed modest platoon splits in the minors last year, with the change probably a solid-average third weapon for him in the end. Although he's on the short side for a starter, he's well-built for his height with plenty of core strength to let him hold his velocity and be able to handle 180-200 innings in a full season when he gets to the majors.

If he has to return to the pen, he'd probably pitch with an 80-grade fastball and a swing-and-miss curveball, but a starter who can get ground balls and throw strikes, a la Tim Hudson, is far more valuable.



Rank Player
95 Jesse Biddle
Age: 21 (DOB: Apr. 4, 1991)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: LHP Organization: Philadelphia Phillies
Top '12 Level: A (Clearwater)
2012 ranking: UR

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
26IP
142.2W
10L
6ERA
3.22


SO
151BB
54H
129HR
10BAA
.237
Biddle is the projection guy to complement fellow lefty Adam Morgan's higher probability in the Phillies' system, which has some depth but doesn't have a lot of guys close to the majors who will make an impact.

Biddle's stuff will be good enough that he should be a back-end starter even if his command never quite gets to average, but has the potential to be a No. 2 if it develops into a real strength. He takes a very long stride to the plate but still manages to finish well over his front side, so that solid-average velocity plays up because he's releasing the ball so much closer to the plate. His changeup has come a long way since his days at Philadelphia's Germantown Friends HS; it has good fade to his arm side and he's more confident in the pitch, doubling up on it to right-handers now that it's a weapon for him.

His delivery is good enough that refining his command is a matter of repetitions and of improving his mental approach to pitching as he matures, and until that happens he's got an adequate floor as a fourth or fifth starter candidate.



Rank Player
96 Kolten Wong
Age: 22 (DOB: Oct. 10, 1990)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: 2B Organization: St. Louis Cardinals
Top '12 Level: AA (Springfield)
2012 ranking: UR

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
126AB
523HR
9RBI
52SB
21


SO
74BB
44AVG
.287OBP
.348SLG
.405
A bet on Wong is a bet that he'll hit, something he's done fairly well so far in pro ball, spending his first full year in pro ball in Double-A and continuing to hit in the Arizona Fall League.

Wong had trouble finding a position in college but has settled into second base where, after about three years at the keystone, he's improved to the point where we can say he'll end up an average defender there but not likely better than that, as his footwork and 45-grade arm limit his defensive upside.

At the plate, Wong has a short swing with good bat speed and really tracks the ball well into the zone. There won't be power there but he should always be a high-contact hitter, and while he hasn't walked a ton so far in pro ball, it wouldn't surprise me if he added that to his game later given how well he seems to see the ball out of the pitcher's hand. He's a 50 to 55 runner who needs to work on his reads of pitchers to convert that into baserunning value.

Wong might be ready for an everyday job in the majors right now and certainly should be by the All-Star Break, giving the Cards a potentially average regular there for the minimum salary for the next three years.



Rank Player
97 Noah Syndergaard
Age: 20 (DOB: Aug. 29, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: New York Mets
Top '12 Level: A (Lansing)
2012 ranking: UR

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
27IP
103.2W
8L
5ERA
2.60


SO
122BB
31H
81HR
3BAA
.212
Syndergaard was part of the trio of starters for the Blue Jays' low Class A Lansing affiliate last year who all made this list, albeit now for three different organizations. (Syndegaard was traded to the Mets in the R.A. Dickey deal, while Justin Nicolino was dealt to the Marlins in the Jose Reyes-Josh Johnson blockbuster. Of the three, only Aaron Sanchez remains with Toronto.)

Syndergaard has a very clean, easy arm action with a fastball in the mid-90s, and an above-average changeup with pretty good arm speed, all with the size of a guy (6-foot-5, 200 pounds) who looks like a front-line starter. Finding a consistent, average breaking ball has been an issue for Syndergaard since he entered pro ball, with reports this year grading it as average at best, and often coming in below that or saying it came and went.

He'll pitch at 20 years old this season and has just 176 pro innings behind him, so there's time to find a consistent third pitch, but it's not a great sign that two-plus years in Toronto's system didn't produce it yet. At worst he should be a solid fourth starter, very durable with above-average control, and still has that No. 2 starter upside if the curveball comes along.



Rank Player
98 Tony Cingrani
Age: 23 (DOB: July 5, 1989)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: LHP Organization: Cincinnati Reds
Top '12 Level: Majors (Reds)
2012 ranking: Sleeper

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
26IP
146W
10L
4ERA
1.80


SO
172BB
52H
98HR
9BAA
.191
Cingrani's an unconventional starting pitching prospect, working almost entirely with an average fastball at 88-94 that hitters swing through like it's 98. The Reds have shortened Cingrani's arm action somewhat since his days at Rice, where the arm action was so long it was hard to envision him handling a starter's workload. They didn't reduce it so much that he lost the great deception it provides him, which let the fastball play up.

His changeup is average now and flashes better than that, working because hitters see the ball so late. The slider is still pretty fringy and may never be more than a third pitch for him. He throws a ton of strikes, and his command is good enough overall to work at least in a back-end starter role, although I tend to think high-deception guys can't rely on that trait to last forever in the majors and eventually will need to improve their location.

He might be a No. 3 starter given another half-season or so in the minors, and should at least get a couple of years in that role before the Reds revisit the bullpen option.



Rank Player
99 Nathan Karns
Age: 25 (DOB: Nov. 25, 1987)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Washington Nationals
Top '12 Level: A (Potomac)
2012 ranking: UR

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
24IP
116W
11L
4ERA
2.17


SO
148BB
47H
70HR
2BAA
.174
A 12th-round pick in 2009 out of Texas Tech, Karns threw just 55 minor-league innings before 2012 due to a major shoulder injury he suffered in 2010, but exploded this year in a rare fit of good health.

Karns was 93-97 as a starter with a yellow hammer of a curveball at 80-85 that he threw for more and more strikes as the season went on, meaning he could have two pitches that grade out at 70 on the 20-80 scale. He barely uses his changeup, but it's no worse than fringy and can play up because hitters are busy worrying about 96 going right by them.

There's some effort in his delivery, mostly as his arm lags slightly behind his front leg, yet he does have the size and lower-body strength to continue to generate that velocity in a starter's role. If his shoulder holds up -- a big if -- he's got front-line starter potential.



Rank Player
100 Eduardo Rodriguez
Age: 19 (DOB: April 7, 1993)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: LHP Organization: Baltimore Orioles
Top '12 Level: A (Delmarva)
2012 ranking: UR

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
22IP
107W
5L
7ERA
3.70


SO
73BB
30H
103HR
4BAA
.251
What you think of Rodriguez depends largely on when in the year you saw him. Early in the year he was working with a fringe-average-to-average fastball and solid-average secondary stuff, maybe a little better on the slider. By midyear he was sitting in the low 90s with a little more life, and by August and in instructs he was hitting 93-94 and both the slider and changeup were flashing plus.

His arm works well, but he lacked experience and repetitions coming into 2012, with just 48 innings in short-season ball in 2011, his first year in the U.S.

The Orioles have a lot of power arms in their lower levels, led by Kevin Gausman, with Rodriguez second on that list as a potential No. 3 starter who might slide up into No. 2 territory if those late-season velocity gains hold into 2013.
 
Ranking the top prospects (51-75).
Law's complete top 100: Index | 1-25 | 26-50 | 51-75 | 76-100



Rank Player
51 Max Fried
Age: 19 (DOB: Jan. 18, 1994)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: LHP Organization: San Diego Padres
Top '12 Level: Rookie (AZL)
2012 ranking: IE

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
10IP
17.2W
0L
1ERA
3.57


SO
17BB
6H
14HR
1BAA
.215
Fried was the seventh overall pick in the 2012 draft and was the best left-handed pitcher in the draft from high school or college. He is a very athletic pitcher who can swing the bat a little and earned as much praise from scouts for his aggressiveness on the mound as for his raw stuff.

He will pitch right now at 89-93 mph with good life to his arm side and deception in his delivery that helps the velocity play up. His curveball, when it's on, breaks sharply downward at 73-76, but it can get too hard and slurvy when he doesn't have his release point. His changeup may end up the better off-speed pitch, a little hard at 81-83 but with late running action and good deception. He stays over the rubber well and drives forward toward the plate with a long stride and early enough pronation to get his arm into throwing position when he plants, a clean delivery he repeats well so he can throw strikes. He is a solid-fielding pitcher thanks to his athleticism.

He's more of a No. 2 than a future ace, someone who'll be among the top 20 or so pitchers in his league and should be good for 200 innings a year when he matures.



Rank Player
52 Tyler Austin
Age: 21 (DOB: Sept. 6, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RF Organization: New York Yankees
Top '12 Level: AA (Trenton)
2012 ranking: Sleeper

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
110AB
413HR
17RBI
80SB
23


SO
98BB
51AVG
.322OBP
.400SLG
.559
Austin is a pure hitter, a former third baseman who moved to right field to accommodate Dante Bichette Jr. but has now blown past Bichette on the team's prospect depth chart.

He is almost all bat, but he can rake, hitting for average and power at two levels this year and earning a two-game call-up to Double-A at the end of the season. As long as he continues to hit like this, he'll project as an above-average regular in right. He's adequate on defense and might have had a chance to develop to the same point at third, but he's staying in right field for now, where he'll have the range and arm to be league-average.

Austin's swing is fundamentally sound, shifting his weight just before contact, rotating his hips to drive the ball and staying balanced throughout with a short path to the ball and good extension, checking just about all of the boxes you want for a hitter's mechanics.

He could be held back if his contact rates, just fair now, slip at Double-A or if he can't make marginal improvements on defense. I see the patience and sufficient athleticism for him to overcome those and become a .300/.360/.500 guy at his peak.



Rank Player
53 Chris Archer
Age: 24 (DOB: Sept. 26, 1988)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Tampa Bay Rays
Top '12 Level: Majors (Rays)
2012 ranking: 63

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
25IP
128W
7L
9ERA
3.66


SO
139BB
62H
99HR
6BAA
.215
This hard-throwing right-hander, nicknamed Duchess, recovered some of the ground he lost in 2011 when he struggled with fastball command and his lack of a third pitch, throwing more strikes and missing more bats, although he did still show a significant platoon split in Triple-A and an even larger one in the majors.

Archer's fastball/slider combination is filthy, sitting 93-95 as a starter and touching 97, with a knockout slider at 83-87 that breaks very hard down and away from right-handers, or sometimes just straight down like it's falling off a cliff. His changeup has a lot of action at 84-86, but he hates throwing it to his glove side -- throwing just one changeup for a strike on the inner half to lefties in the majors last year -- and he doesn't command the pitch well enough to make it a credible weapon.

He has the two pitches to be a dominant reliever, but he needs "glue up" to get that change to the point where lefties don't tee off on him so he can develop into a No. 2 or 3 starter.



Rank Player
54 Rymer Liriano
Age: 21 (DOB: June 20, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: OF Organization: San Diego Padres
Top '11 Level: AA (San Antonio)
2011 ranking: 40

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
127AB
465HR
8RBI
61SB
32


SO
119BB
41AVG
.280OBP
.350SLG
.417
Liriano is one of the main boom-or-bust prospects in the minors. If it clicks, he's an impact bat who will hit fourth in just about any lineup; if it doesn't, he's an up-and-down guy who ends up in Oakland on a minor league deal and flukes into a .920 OPS at age 29, after which the A's flip him for prospects.

He has huge raw power, much of it from upper-body strength, as he starts with a wide base and barely transfers his weight at all. He's power-before-hit, with the bat speed to make plenty of contact but marginal (yet slowly improving) recognition of breaking stuff. He is an above-average runner who has played center but will have to play right in the majors.

If his bat were slower, I'd be far more skeptical of his ability to hit enough to get his power to play, but he has the tools and athleticism to be able to adjust enough to hit in the mid-.200s and produce 25-plus homers on a regular basis.



Rank Player
55 Gregory Polanco
Age: 21 (DOB: Sept. 14, 1991)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: CF Organization: Pittsburgh Pirates
Top '12 Level: A (West Virginia)
2012 ranking: UR

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
116AB
437HR
16RBI
85SB
40


SO
64BB
44AVG
.325OBP
.388SLG
.522
Polanco was on the same loaded West Virginia team as Alen Hanson, Jose Osuna and the injured Josh Bell, one of the most prospect-laden clubs in the minors last year. Other than Hanson, Polanco outshone them all, showing great promise on defense while making lots of contact and slugging over .500.

His swing is actually quite long, making the low strikeout total a little bit of a surprise. He sets up with his hands high and wraps the bat slightly behind his head, so he's long to the ball and can exacerbate it by trying to pull it. He's a plus runner who should, in time, become a 60 or 70 glove in center, and his approach was good for a 20-year-old who had just 10 at-bats above rookie ball before 2012.

He still has room to fill out physically, and there's some small chance he develops into a high-impact guy. If it all clicks, he might be a 25-plus homer guy with high batting averages and great center-field defense. He's good enough that he doesn't need all of those things to work out for him to become an above-average regular.



Rank Player
56 Dorssys Paulino
Age: 18 (DOB: Nov. 21, 1994)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: SS Organization: Cleveland Indians
Top '12 Level: A (Mahoning Valley)
2012 ranking: UR

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
56AB
231HR
7RBI
38SB
11


SO
45BB
18AVG
.333OBP
.380SLG
.558
Paulino signed with Cleveland in 2011 for $1.1 million but didn't play in a pro game until June 2012, after which he showed himself to be too advanced a hitter for the Arizona Rookie League and earned a late promotion to short-season Mahoning Valley.

The son of former big league right-hander Jesus Sanchez, Paulino has a simple, line-drive oriented swing, very short to the ball with good balance, and his approach at the plate for a 17-year-old with no pro experience was impressive. I believe he'll stay at shortstop. He's an above-average runner with the arm for the position, but Paulino needs reps and refinement to improve his reads and footwork.

At second base, he'd be a solid player, but not special, while he has a chance to be an impact bat at short with a high average and plenty of doubles and triples. Paulino might be ready by the time he's 21 if the glove can catch up to the bat.



Rank Player
57 Slade Heathcott
Age: 22 (DOB: Sept. 28, 1990)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: RF Organization: New York Yankees
Top '12 Level: A (Tampa)
2012 ranking: UR

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
65AB
232HR
5RBI
29SB
19


SO
70BB
25AVG
.302OBP
.380SLG
.461
Heathcott is a maniac, and I mean that in a positive way -- mostly. Usually saying a player is a "one-speed" guy is a criticism because he coasts and doesn't have that fourth gear, but Heathcott plays like he jammed a wrench in the gearshift and is in fourth gear all the time -- bowling over catchers when there wasn't really a play at the plate in the Arizona Fall League, for example.

For pure tools, however, he dominated the field in Arizona and has a special mix of strength and quickness that might put him among the top 20 prospects in the game in a year. He has great bat speed and a sound, balanced swing that I rarely saw break down even when he was badly fooled. He's a 60-65 runner, quick out of the box and never really slowing down, the unstoppable force in search of an immovable object. He covers ground in center thanks to his running speed, but injuries have kept him out of center and sometimes out of the lineup a ton since he entered pro ball. He might end up in a corner just because it would keep him healthier.

His style of play doesn't keep him out of the trainer's room either, similar to the less physical Chris Snelling, whose career was derailed by an unceasing litany of injuries. If Heathcott can dial it down a notch and get to 400 plate appearances this year -- which he hasn't reached in his three full seasons of pro ball -- he'll make a big move up this list.



Rank Player
58 Trevor Rosenthal
Age: 22 (DOB: May 29, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: St. Louis Cardinals
Top '12 Level: Majors (Cardinals)
2012 ranking: Just missed

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
20IP
109W
8L
6ERA
2.97


SO
104BB
42H
78HR
7BAA
.175
Rosenthal announced his presence to everyone with his relief work in the majors in September, when he legitimately hit 100 mph out of the bullpen, a tick better than he shows out of the rotation. Not bad for a player drafted in the 21st round by area scout Aaron Looper, who saw Rosenthal, a converted shortstop, throw one inning in a junior college tournament.

Rosenthal has two great attributes to keep him in the rotation -- that big fastball, more 92-97 when he's starting, and the athleticism that allows him to repeat his delivery even with some effort and to locate his fastball around the zone. His arm is so quick that everything he throws is hard, sometimes compromising break or movement. His slider touched 92 once in the majors last year, and even at its usual 88-90, it's more like a big cutter than a true slider; his changeup is closer to a BP fastball; his curve has the strongest definition, right around 80-81 mph with downward break.

He doesn't need all those pitches to improve as a starter, but two of the three would be nice. He's athletic enough and inexperienced enough that it's not just idle hope, and he has already shown his floor as an impact bullpen arm is very high.



Rank Player
59 Oswaldo Arcia
Age: 21 (DOB: May 9, 1991)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: RF Organization: Minnesota Twins
Top '12 Level: AA (New Britain)
2012 ranking: 85

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
124AB
469HR
17RBI
98SB
4


SO
107BB
51AVG
.320OBP
.388SLG
.539
Arcia took another step forward offensively in 2012 while shifting primarily to right field, a result of Aaron Hicks' presence in Double-A New Britain and Arcia's inevitable move to a corner.

He also had the longest season of his career, passing his previous single-year high of 316 plate appearances. Arcia's hands are explosive enough that he has a harder time getting them through airport security than through the strike zone, a little busy as he loads with a downward move but a late move into a strong position followed by a great path that's direct to the ball with great extension for 25-plus homer power down the road. He hit 17 bombs last year, although his line was inflated a little by a friendly home park. A full year in Triple-A will give us a better read on how far away he is from translating that hand speed into real power.

Arcia was always destined for right field, but if he has the kind of power I expect from him, he'll be an above-average regular and occasional All-Star.



Rank Player
60 Casey Kelly
Age: 23 (DOB: Oct. 4, 1989)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: San Diego Padres
Top '12 Level: Majors (San Diego)
2012 ranking: 32

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
8IP
37.2W
0L
2ERA
3.35


SO
39BB
3H
33HR
1BAA
.229
Kelly made just eight minor league starts in 2012, three of them rehab outings around an elbow injury that didn't require surgery but interrupted what looked like a breakthrough season for the former Tennessee quarterback recruit.

He is the best fielding-pitching prospect I've ever seen, a superlative athlete with an easy delivery who will show three above-average to plus pitches, but he gets hit far more often than someone with all of these attributes should. The Padres moved him to the first-base side of the rubber late in 2011 so he could get more life to his glove side and stay out of the middle of the plate, but hitters still get good looks at the four-seamer. Everything Kelly threw in the majors finished too far up in the zone.

There's too much raw material to write Kelly off, but he won't come close to his potential unless he learns to pitch down and perhaps switches to a two-seamer or sinker to avoid hard contact on the fastball.



Rank Player
61 Alex Meyer
Age: 23 (DOB: Jan. 3, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Minnesota Twins
Top '12 Level: A (Potomac)
2012 ranking: Just missed

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
25IP
129W
10L
6ERA
2.86


SO
139BB
45H
97HR
6BAA
.211
Meyer was ninth on my board heading into the 2011 draft but slid to the 23rd overall pick due both to concerns about his price tag and whether he could get his 6-foot-9 frame under control enough to remain a starter in pro ball.

I can understand the motivation to put Meyer in the 'pen, where he's going to be 96-99 or so with a 70 slider (on the 20-80 scale). But the potential for a high-strikeout starter, even if he walks a few more guys than you'd like, is too much to ignore. Meyer works from a low three-quarters arm slot and is more 92-97 as a starter with great life, and that slider is still plus with hard, late tilt, a pitch he can even use against left-handers. His changeup has improved since college but is still usually too hard, and command will probably always be his Achilles' heel even if his control gets to average.

Meyer's performance last year came largely against inferior hitters in the low Class A Sally League, but he's ready for Double-A. The Twins' lack of impact starter prospects should push them to give him another two full years, if not more, to prove he can't do it.



Rank Player
62 Justin Nicolino
Age: 21 (DOB: Nov. 22, 1991)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: LHP Organization: Miami Marlins
Top '12 Level: A (Lansing)
2012 ranking: UR

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
28IP
124.1W
10L
4ERA
2.46


SO
119BB
21H
112HR
6BAA
.241
If you don't like Nicolino, you see a lefty with an average fastball and breaking ball, better changeup and no projection, making him a back-end finesse guy. If you like him, you see shades of Cole Hamels with a potential out pitch in the change and feel for pitching well beyond his age.

The Hamels comparison comes up a lot because of the changeup and the lack of a big fastball, with Nicolino sitting at 88-92 and unlikely to move up more than a mile or two an hour from that. He has an average breaking ball, but the changeup is the separator. It's really a silly pitch, with great deception so that it looks just like the fastball coming out of that slot just under three-quarter, with a little late fade to finish off hitters who weren't fooled by the release. He pounds the zone with all three pitches, walking just 21 of 494 batters faced in the Midwest League while still missing bats.

I don't think Nicolino becomes an ace like Hamels -- if I did, I'd have him rated higher -- but I do think he becomes an above-average starter because he has so many positives, including a legitimate out pitch, in his favor.



Rank Player
63 Allen Webster
Age: 22 (DOB: Feb. 10, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Boston Red Sox
Top '12 Level: AA (Portland)
2012 ranking: 61

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
29IP
130.2W
6L
9ERA
3.86


SO
129BB
61H
133HR
2BAA
.265
Webster will show three plus pitches and looks like he should be at or near the top of someone's rotation, but as a converted position player, he has struggled to develop enough fastball command to translate the raw stuff into on-field success.

He will sit at 94 mph with his fastball and can reach 97 with plus sink that led to a 2:1 groundout-to-fly out ratio in Double-A this year, pairing it with a swing-and-miss changeup with good action and a slider that will flash plus but isn't as consistent as the other two pitches. As you'd expect from a former shortstop, he is athletic and can repeat his delivery well, but he lacks the feel for pitching that he'll need to succeed as a starter even at Triple-A, both in terms of just throwing strikes and in using and mixing his pitches more effectively.

The Red Sox were thrilled to get him from the Dodgers in the Adrian Gonzalez/Carl Crawford/Josh Beckett blockbuster that also netted Rubby De La Rosa (no longer eligible for this list) and view Webster as a potential No. 2 starter. I see that ceiling, but a lot of work between here and there.



Rank Player
64 Arodys Vizcaino
Age: 22 (DOB: Nov. 13, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Chicago Cubs
Top '12 Level: DNP (Injured)
2012 ranking: 14

2011 MINORS STATS


GM
26IP
97W
5L
5ERA
3.06


SO
100BB
28H
82HR
7BAA
.225
Vizcaino entered 2012 with a partial ligament tear in his right elbow, and in March he underwent surgery to repair it, ending his season before it began, although he did find himself part of a midyear trade from the Braves to the Cubs in exchange for Paul Maholm.

When healthy, Vizcaino has electric stuff, a top-of-the-rotation arsenal with a lightning-quick arm, needing work on command and refinement on his changeup a little further to reach that potential -- and, of course, to stay healthy.

Before the surgery, Vizcaino would work at 92-96 as a starter and hit 98 when he worked in relief for Atlanta late in 2011. The pitch doesn't sink but does have late life up in the zone. He has a hard curveball that works at near-slider velocity with hard two-plane break and good depth. The changeup has good arm speed, and improving it is a question of feel, something he'll get with reps. His arm works well aside from a lack of extension out front, and he gets on top of the ball enough to get that depth on the breaking ball.

The Cubs will likely bring him back slowly this year, so if he appears in the majors at all in 2013, I'd speculate that it would be in relief, with a rotation spot by mid-2014 a more realistic goal.



Rank Player
65 Eddie Rosario
Age: 21 (DOB: Sept. 28, 1991)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: 2B/CF Organization: Minnesota Twins
Top '12 Level: A (Beloit)
2012 ranking: 50

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
100AB
411HR
13RBI
74SB
11


SO
71BB
32AVG
.299OBP
.347SLG
.499
Rosario can hit and play center field, but the Twins are trying to maximize his value by converting him to second base due to an abundance of center-field depth in the system. It's an experiment that produced mixed results at best in 2012 but that should continue for at least another year.

He can run and throw well enough to handle center. At second, he has the hands for the position, but footwork has been a chronic issue, with his likely ceiling on defense as a solid-average defender who doesn't cost the team any runs.

Rosario's real value is at the plate, where he has quick hands and a good two-strike approach. He doesn't walk much, so while there's a plan at the plate, Step 3 is always "put it in play." (That's better than having that as Step 1.) He keeps his weight back well enough to show good doubles power and projects as a 15-homer guy, maybe a touch better, down the road. For a 55 runner, he's pretty useless at base stealing, another aspect of his game that could improve with instruction but that, right now, isn't present.

It's an odd mix of skills, but his floor is an everyday center fielder who hits .280 with 40 doubles with a ceiling of a second baseman who has a little more power than that and can add some value through baserunning.



Rank Player
66 Danny Hultzen
Age: 23 (DOB: Nov. 28, 1989)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: LHP Organization: Seattle Mariners
Top '12 Level: AAA (Tacoma)
2012 ranking: 30

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
25IP
124W
9L
7ERA
3.05


SO
136BB
75H
87HR
4BAA
.197
Hultzen went straight to Double-A in his first full pro season and had no trouble with the level (1.19 ERA in 13 starts), earning a promotion to Triple-A. That's where things went past sour to indigestible, with Hultzen unable to finish an inning in one of his final starts and walking over a man an inning in his final seven outings. He finished with a 5.92 ERA in 12 starts at that level.

He was always a command guy who got deception from a slightly low slot and could miss bats with his changeup while locating his short slider well enough to make up for its lack of a hard break. He'll sit 88-92, occasionally showing a little more, and had a long history of throwing strikes -- until he reached Tacoma -- despite some funk in his arm action, including a noticeable arm wrap in back.

Hultzen always cut himself off a little rather than landing straight in line to the plate, but when I saw him in Triple-A, he was cutting himself off more than ever and couldn't locate to his glove side at all. That should be an easy fix, and if that's the only issue, he should get back on track and would still project as a solid No. 3 starter.



Rank Player
67 Zach Lee
Age: 21 (DOB: Sept. 13, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Los Angeles Dodgers
Top '12 Level: AA (Chattanooga)
2012 ranking: 41

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
25IP
121W
6L
6ERA
4.39


SO
103BB
32H
129HR
15BAA
.271
Lee reminds me a lot of Padres farmhand Casey Kelly, another highly athletic pitcher and former prep quarterback who did everything easily -- but in Kelly's case, the great scouting reports haven't translated to enough pro success.

Lee had little trouble with the high Class A Cal League, once you consider the environments where he pitched (of his nine homers allowed, six were home at Rancho Cucamonga and two were at Lancaster, both hitters' paradises), and the Dodgers promoted him to Double-A after June.

After getting knocked around some in his first five starts thanks to poor command and control, Lee found another gear, posting a 1.97 ERA over his final eight starts with just nine unintentional walks and 35 strikeouts. He is working with mostly average stuff, a little better on the fastball and the changeup, which has good action. His slider is ahead of his curveball, but neither is an above-average pitch.

I keep expecting Lee's stuff to tick upward, since he is athletic and projectable and does everything so easily, but he might be more of a lower-ceiling but very high-floor guy. He fills the zone with three pitches but doesn't have an out pitch to make him more than a good midrotation guy.



Rank Player
68 Jake Odorizzi
Age: 22 (DOB: March 27, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Tampa Bay Rays
Top '12 Level: Majors (Royals)
2012 ranking: 71

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
26IP
145.1W
15L
5ERA
3.03


SO
135BB
50H
132HR
14BAA
.238
Odorizzi went to Tampa Bay in the James Shields trade, which also brought No. 4 prospect Wil Myers to the Rays and former top 100 prospect Mike Montgomery, a lefty who still has arm strength and a good changeup but who has lost all command over the past two years.

Odorizzi doesn't have quite the raw stuff of Montgomery, but he floods the zone with strikes, using four pitches, none plus, with enough of an arsenal to develop into an innings guy in the middle of a rotation. Odorizzi's four-seamer is mostly 90-94, and while he commands it well, it's very flat and is the main reason why Odorizzi has become a severe fly ball guy as he's moved up the chain.

His change is his best secondary pitch, hard enough that it runs rather than fades, with excellent deception -- something Odorizzi gets from a slightly short arm action that hides the ball from hitters. He throws both a slider and a curve, but the slider is more likely to miss right-handers' bats in the majors, at 82-84 with decent tilt. He might have to switch to a two-seamer or just pitch less off the fastball to avoid becoming homer-prone.

I love his athleticism and how easily he throws, which makes him look like a future 200-inning guy, if he can keep the ball in the park.



Rank Player
69 Nick Franklin
Age: 21 (DOB: March 2, 1991)
Bats: Both Throws: Right
Position: SS Organization: Seattle Mariners
Top '12 Level: AAA (Tacoma)
2012 ranking: 57

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
121AB
472HR
11RBI
55SB
12


SO
106BB
48AVG
.278OBP
.347SLG
.453
Franklin returned to Double-A a year after injuries and mono ruined his first stint there and tore the league up for 230 plate appearances before moving up to Triple-A where, at age 21, he looked a little overmatched.

He has two major questions left to determine what his ceiling is: whether he can stay at short, and what happens when he finally gives up switch-hitting. Franklin's tools are a little light for shortstop, but he's always made up for it somewhat with great positioning and reads off the bat, enough that he could become an average or fringe-average defender there in time. He'd be more than adequate at second base given enough reps at the position.

As a hitter, he's close to useless hitting right-handed, but he hits for average and power from the left side, even with some drift to his front side, compensating with good hand-eye coordination and strong wrists. The floor is a second baseman who saves several runs on defense and hits for average with 10-15 homers; the ceiling is a shortstop whose glove doesn't hurt you but might creep up toward 20 bombs if hitting exclusively left-handed boosts his overall line.



Rank Player
70 Jedd Gyorko
Age: 24 (DOB: Sept. 23, 1988)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: 3B Organization: San Diego Padres
Top '12 Level: AAA (Tucson)
2012 ranking: 90

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
126AB
499HR
30RBI
100SB
5


SO
95BB
51AVG
.311OBP
.373SLG
.547
Gyorko doesn't look the part of a third baseman, or any kind of infielder, but he has worked enough to max out the defense he can get from his blocky physique, allowing him to stay at a position where his bat should make him an above-average regular.

Despite the gaudy Triple-A line, I see Gyorko as more of a hitter for average than a power guy because he is so balanced at the plate with minimal weight transfer or torque from hip rotation. He has very good hand-eye coordination and a solid enough approach to be a .300 hitter at his peak with .360-plus OBP, although I see him as a 15-homer guy instead of a 25-homer one. NL third basemen hit .270/.333/.433 in 2012, a line Gyorko would likely beat in 2013 if he could play every day in a neutral park -- although neither of those things is happening unless someone is traded in the next 60 days.

Because he's blocked at third by Chase Headley, Gyorko has spent some time at second base, a position I don't think he can handle full time without hurting the club or himself. He might be waiting for an opportunity to show he can be a valuable every-day guy.



Rank Player
71 Mike Olt
Age: 24 (DOB: Aug. 27, 1988)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: 3B Organization: Texas Rangers
Top '12 Level: Majors (Rangers)
2012 ranking: 75

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
95AB
354HR
28RBI
82SB
4


SO
101BB
61AVG
.288OBP
.398SLG
.579
Olt's big league debut could have gone better, as he swung and missed a lot (13 K's in 33 at-bats) when he was able to get into the Rangers' lineup, but he's also the team's main trading chip and might have to wait for a deal to get his chance to play third base every day.

A poor defensive shortstop in college at UConn, Olt has remade himself into a plus defender at third, and he has big raw power that could produce 30-plus bombs a year if he makes enough contact. That's the main question on Olt at this point. Contact rates were an issue for him in college, and between Double-A and the majors last year, it's resurfaced to the point where he's probably going to be a low-to-moderate batting average guy who draws 60-70 walks a year and hits 20-25 homers.

The swing-and-miss problem isn't from his swing, though, which has gotten more direct since college, so perhaps he just needs more reps -- he had just over 600 pro plate appearances coming into 2012 -- to get past it.



Rank Player
72 Daniel Corcino
Age: 22 (DOB: Aug. 26, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Cincinnati Reds
Top '12 Level: AA (Pensacola)
2012 ranking: 54

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
26IP
143.1W
8L
8ERA
3.01


SO
126BB
65H
111HR
9BAA
.216
Corcino had a solid year after making a two-level jump to Double-A, with a modest strikeout rate and high fly ball rate both serving as red flags for his future.

He will pitch with a solid-average fastball up to 94 and a touch better than that, effective when he finishes his delivery but a problem when he pulls off too much and starts missing to his glove side. His changeup is ahead of his slider; the change has great arm speed and hard tailing action, while the slider is more of an average pitch with some tilt. He comes from a slot under three-quarters and has a tendency to throw across his body. Between that, the fly ball tendency and his habit of working too much off the fastball, there's some sentiment that Corcino ends up in the 'pen.

He's just 22, with three average or better pitches and two full healthy seasons as a starter under his belt, more than enough to project him as a solid No. 3 given enough time, even if the Reds' home run-friendly park isn't the ideal place for him.



Rank Player
73 Wily Peralta
Age: 23 (DOB: May 8, 1989)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Milwaukee Brewers
Top '12 Level: Majors (Brewers)
2012 ranking: 39

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
28IP
146.2W
7L
11ERA
4.66


SO
143BB
78H
154HR
9BAA
.275
Peralta's drop on this list is almost entirely a function of his control troubles in Triple-A, as he still has the same arsenal he did a year ago, with the secondary stuff slightly better.

He will sit in the mid-90s with good downhill plane, generating ground balls and working well to both sides of the plate. His breaking ball and changeup continue to improve, both good enough to miss Triple-A bats even though he doesn't command either well enough yet. He is his own worst enemy on the mound, often reacting to adversity by trying to throw harder, reaching 98-99 but seeing his stuff flatten out in the process.

Even in the majors, he was much worse from the stretch than from the windup (.217 BAA with bases empty versus .282 with runners on), again trying to do too much when he was in trouble. The raw materials are there for a No. 2 starter, but he'll have to throw more strikes and keep his cool on the mound.



Rank Player
74 Courtney Hawkins
Age: 19 (DOB: Nov. 12, 1993)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: OF Organization: Chicago White Sox
Top '12 Level: A (Winston-Salem)
2012 ranking: IE

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
59AB
229HR
8RBI
33SB
11


SO
56BB
11AVG
.284OBP
.324SLG
.480
The White Sox haven't had a teenage prospect like Hawkins in some time, and they handled him aggressively, pushing him to low Class A after just 38 games in the Appy League and moving him to high-A for the season's final week and the playoffs.

He is very strong and physical for his age, built like a running back with outstanding hand acceleration at the plate, big hip rotation to produce power and less projection than your typical 19-year-old has.

He'll need to work on off-speed recognition and repeating his swing for greater consistency, as well as improving his two-strike approach, all things you'd expect a somewhat raw prep kid to have to do in pro ball.

He has a plus arm and will be an above-average defender in right given reps out there, with solid-average running speed as well. He could be an impact hitter given three or four years to develop, and he's the most exciting hitting prospect the White Sox have had since, well, in a really long time.



Rank Player
75 Matt Davidson
Age: 21 (DOB: March 26, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: 3B Organization: Arizona Diamondbacks
Top '12 Level: AA (Mobile)
2012 ranking: 82

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
135AB
486HR
23RBI
76SB
3


SO
126BB
69AVG
.261OBP
.367SLG
.469
Davidson just keeps chugging along, drawing walks, hitting for some power, playing an adequate third base and not getting a ton of respect for it -- understandable, as there's nothing flashy about his game.

He has a great, smooth right-handed swing that looks like it should produce more doubles power than home runs, although the 23 bombs he hit in Mobile this year were a new career high. He has improved at third base to the point where he's playable there, and if the Diamondbacks don't re-sign Martin Prado, they should feel confident handing the job to Davidson. His bat speed isn't great, so the keys to his success are maintaining his plate discipline and hand-eye coordination.

A neutral-defense third baseman with 20-homer power who draws 70 walks a year is a solid player, and Davidson might be grow up to be more than that given how young he has been for everywhere he's played.
 
Ranking the top prospects (26-50).
Law's complete top 100: Index | 1-25 | 26-50 | 51-75 | 76-100




Rank Player
26 Kevin Gausman
Age: 22 (DOB: Jan. 6, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Baltimore Orioles
Top '12 Level: A (Frederick)
2012 ranking: IE

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
5IP
15W
0L
1ERA
3.60


SO
13BB
1H
11HR
3BAA
.200
Gausman was the fourth overall pick in the 2012 draft as a draft-eligible sophomore out of LSU. He started the year unevenly but threw better in the second half as LSU coaches got him to focus on throwing his slider instead of his below-average curveball.

He will sit 93-97 and can touch 99, but his improved command of the pitch was a big reason he took a giant leap forward in 2012. The other reason was that above-average slider, 82-86 with hard downward break, the breaking ball he needed to be more effective against right-handed hitters. He always had a plus changeup at 83-86 with strong fading action, giving him a true three-pitch mix where he could peak with three grade-60 pitches. Gausman's delivery is much cleaner than it was in high school, starting with a very high leg kick, staying over the rubber well with a strong finishing over his front side.

There are a handful of things to clear for him to project as a No. 1 starter, notably keeping the fastball out of the middle of the plate in hitters' counts, but I could safely project him as a No. 2 guy who's among the top 25 or so starters in his league.



Rank Player
27 Kyle Zimmer
Age: 21 (DOB: Sept. 13, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Kansas City Royals
Top '12 Level: A (Kane County)
2012 ranking: IE

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
9IP
39.2W
3L
3ERA
2.04


SO
42BB
8H
39HR
1BAA
.267
The University of San Francisco product was the biggest "pop-up guy" in last year's draft -- meaning he shot quickly up draft boards -- showing a 94-98 mph fastball in a short start on the college season's first day and never really letting up until a hamstring injury slowed him later in the spring.

A converted position player who has a shockingly clean and simple delivery, Zimmer will pitch more at 92-96 every fifth day, with a 79-82 mph curveball that will flash plus and that he can throw for strikes, along with a hard changeup at 83-85 that he'll use to left- and right-handed hitters. I've seen him struggle a little with his release point, but his arm swing is clean and he lands online to the plate, both positives for command and control over the long term. Zimmer's season ended a little early as he had surgery to remove bone chips in his elbow, with no structural damage to the ligament, and he should be good to go for spring training.

I've heard Zimmer compared to some of the best right-handers in the majors, including Justin Verlander, and he's got the best chance of any pitcher in the Royals' system to be the ace they've been seeking for years.



Rank Player
28 Julio Teheran
Age: 22 (DOB: Jan. 27, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Atlanta Braves
Top '12 Level: Majors (Braves)
2012 ranking: 18

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
26IP
131W
7L
9ERA
5.08


SO
97BB
43H
146HR
18BAA
.289
Teheran is still just 22 years old, even though he's in his third year on these rankings, sliding a little each year as the adjustments he needs to make don't occur. And in Teheran's defense, it's easier to see a prospect as disappointing when early expectations were so high, even though there are still many positives in his scouting report.

He has an easy arm action that produces plus velocity, up to 97 mph pretty regularly, and he has a plus changeup that makes him more effective against left-handed hitters than right-handed ones. His fastball doesn't have much life, and it's made him homer-prone, while his lack of an average breaking ball has allowed right-handers to square the ball up against him too often, hitting .304/.362/.517 off him in Triple-A.

His arm is quick enough to produce decent break on a curveball or slider, and getting that pitch to be consistently average or better would prevent hitters from sitting on fastballs up in the zone so easily. He throws hard, throws strikes, and has an above-average off-speed pitch, so there's a lot to like here with youth on his side. To reach his potential as a No. 2 or better, though, he'll have to improve that third pitch and keep his fastball down in the zone.



Rank Player
29 Archie Bradley
Age: 20 (DOB: Aug. 10, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Arizona Diamondbacks
Top '12 Level: A (South Bend)
2012 ranking: 19

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
27IP
136W
12L
6ERA
3.84


SO
152BB
84H
87HR
6BAA
.181
Bradley's first full year in the minors was solid, but a little below expectations because his command and control were worse than anticipated, which in turn meant he had a harder time working deeper into starts and getting the kind of work he needed.

His raw stuff remains filthy, an easy 94-98 with downhill plane, a wipeout curveball, and the quarterback size and athleticism that made him a top 10 overall pick in 2011. He was more aggressive in the second half of 2011, attacking hitters when ahead in the count but still walking too many hitters.

He needs more reps in 2012 and needs to throw more strikes when behind in the count -- or to just not fall behind so often in the first place -- because the fastball, curveball, and workhorse body could put him at the top of many rotations.



Rank Player
30 Billy Hamilton
Age: 22 (DOB: Sept. 9, 1990)
Bats: Both Throws: Right
Position: CF Organization: Cincinnati Reds
Top '12 Level: A (Pensacola)
2012 ranking: 64

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
132AB
512HR
1RBI
45SB
155


SO
113BB
86AVG
.311OBP
.410SLG
.420
Hamilton is the fastest man in organized baseball, breaking the single-season stolen base record for any level of pro ball by stealing 155 bases during the regular season, plus 10 more in 17 games in the Arizona Fall League. Now that he has moved off shortstop to center field, his path to an everyday job is much clearer.

At the plate, Hamilton has plenty of bat speed and has become strong enough to avoid having pitchers light him up inside; he drifts over his front side and probably won't ever hit 10 homers in a season, with a little more rotation in his swing when he hits right-handed. He played center in Arizona in the fall and, for a player new to the position, his reads improved very quickly out there. He has the speed to make up for it when his reaction wasn't quick enough; most surprisingly he threw better from center than he ever did at shortstop.

The key to Hamilton's ability to maximize his value will be how he uses his speed to boost his on-base percentage, bunting for hits or beating out seemingly routine grounders to the left side. If he can be a .400 OBP guy with even average defense in center, his legs will make him a 4-5 WAR player until his speed starts to go.



Rank Player
31 Javier Baez
Age: 20 (DOB: Dec. 1, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: SS Organization: Chicago Cubs
Top '12 Level: A (Daytona)
2012 ranking: 95

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
80AB
293HR
16RBI
46SB
24


SO
69BB
14AVG
.294OBP
.346SLG
.543
Baez might have the best bat speed in the minors, and he certainly has the angriest swing, often reminiscent of John Belushi's samurai character from "Saturday Night Live." (Of course, when Baez was born, Belushi had been dead for a decade, so perhaps I need a more contemporary reference.)

His hands are explosive, and the bat speed is so good that he's already got plus-plus raw power and can drive the ball out to the opposite field like he's tying his shoes. He's also one of the least patient hitters in the minors, approaching each pitch in fourth gear, swinging and missing because he doesn't shorten up or otherwise adjust his swing to the situation. In the field, he's quieted doubts about his ability to stay at shortstop; he has the agility and instincts for it, as well as a plus arm, so the only major issue is whether he eventually outgrows the position.

He's one of the highest-beta prospects on this list -- he could be a 30-homer shortstop, or he could stall out in Double-A because pitchers exploit him and he can't adjust. I'm willing, for now, to bet on the former.



Rank Player
32 Jonathan Singleton
Age: 21 (DOB: Sept. 18, 1991)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: 1B Organization: Houston Astros
Top '12 Level: AA (Corpus Christi)
2012 ranking: 46

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
131AB
461HR
21RBI
79SB
7


SO
131BB
88AVG
.284OBP
.396SLG
.497
First base is a weak spot in the minors right now, in part because the cycle is down, but also because the standards for the position are so high: To be a potential star or even above-average regular there, you have to be able to rake, and Singleton is one of the few no-doubters in that regard.

Jonathan, who is of no relation to Ken or Chris, has an outstanding left-handed swing, with good balance throughout and solid extension to generate power. His pitch recognition against right-handers is very advanced, good enough for the big leagues right now, both in terms of pitch types and balls versus strikes. The main deficiency in his game is against left-handed pitching, although his .232/.307/.416 line against them in Double-A represented an improvement.

Singleton is facing a 50-game suspension for marijuana usage -- under baseball's misguided drug policies, he would have been better off driving drunk -- which will cost him some at bats that could have accelerated his timetable, but it doesn't affect his long-term outlook as the Astros' first baseman of the future, a possible .380-.400 OBP guy with 25-homer power.



Rank Player
33 Albert Almora
Age: 18 (DOB: April 16, 1994)
Bats: RightThrows: Right
Position: CF Organization: Chicago Cubs
Top '12 Level: A (Boise)
2012 ranking: IE

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
33AB
140HR
2RBI
19SB
5


SO
13BB
2AVG
.321OBP
.331SLG
.464
The joke in scouting circles last spring was that Cubs President Theo Epstein didn't just want to draft Almora, he wanted to adopt him. Almora is a natural center fielder who has outstanding instincts, especially when reading the ball off the bat, so even though he's an average runner he plays with plus range and has an above-average arm.

Almora starts his swing with a high leg kick but gets his foot down in time, with a very steady, controlled swing that has plenty of hip rotation for power without sacrificing his ability to square up the ball for solid contact. He has excellent hand-eye coordination and doesn't swing and miss much, even with the wood bat. His lack of patience in his pro debut (two walks in 145 plate appearances) was something of a surprise, although he might have just wanted to fit in with all of the Cubs' other hitting prospects.

His ceiling is as a high-average hitter with plus defense in center and 20 home runs, although he's going to have to show he can take a pitch now and then to get there.



Rank Player
34 Alen Hanson
Age: 20 (DOB: Oct. 22, 1992)
Bats: BothThrows: Right
Position: SS Organization: Pittsburgh Pirates
Top '12 Level: A (West Virginia)
2012 ranking: UR

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
124AB
489HR
16RBI
62SB
35


SO
105BB
55AVG
.309OBP
.381SLG
.528
Hanson jumped on the radar by hitting .410 in the month of April, obviously a bit of a small-sample fluke, but, in his case, not an entirely useless bit of info, as he hit .281/.366/.482 over the rest of the season.

He's a true switch-hitter with a compact left-handed swing and more loft from his natural right-handed side, and is a plus runner who's a tick better than that when he's underway. Hanson is currently a shortstop, and I see no reason he can't stay there; his feet are quick, his arm is strong enough (at least a 60 on the 20-80 scale) to make the throw from the hole, and his hands are fine. He made 40 errors this year, most of them early (21 in his first 42 games), but many of them attributable to terrible field conditions in West Virginia as well; the in-season improvements were noticeable, especially his focus on routine plays.

If he has to move to second base, which I still doubt, he'd be an above-average regular, but his bat and speed give him star potential if he does indeed stay at shortstop.



Rank Player
35 Mason Williams
Age: 21 (DOB: Aug. 21, 1991)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: CF Organization: New York Yankees
Top '12 Level: A (Tampa)
2012 ranking: 34

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
91AB
359HR
11RBI
35SB
20


SO
47BB
24AVG
.298OBP
.346SLG
.474
Williams had a solid full-season debut in 2012, showing off his hit and glove tools while demonstrating that he still needs a lot of refinement at the plate.

He's been keeping his weight back at the plate much better since I first saw him in 2011, giving him more time to recognize pitches and a better chance to drive them out to the gaps, although he can get a little power-happy and drop his back shoulder too much to try to elevate the ball. He goes to the plate with the intention of attacking the first good pitch he sees, so he doesn't walk or strike out much yet, and since he's not likely to become a 25-homer guy he's going to have to show greater patience before he's ready for the majors.

His glove, on the other hand, is ready now, with a 70 grade on the 20-80 scale thanks to above-average speed and great reads even on balls that slice away from him. Williams injured his non-throwing shoulder making a diving catch at the start of August and missed the rest of the season, something that bears watching to make sure he doesn't cut off his swing to compensate for any residual soreness.

If healthy, he should reach Double-A this year and would be Curtis Granderson's eventual replacement in center, even if his glove is ready before his bat.



Rank Player
36 Austin Hedges
Age: 20 (DOB: Aug. 18, 1992)
Bats: RightThrows: Right
Position: C Organization: San Diego Padres
Top '12 Level: A (Fort Wayne)
2012 ranking: Just missed

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
96AB
337HR
10RBI
56SB
14


SO
62BB
23AVG
.279OBP
.334SLG
.451
Hedges is the best defensive catching prospect in the minors if we limit the list to guys who have a chance to hit as well, which Hedges does, more than seemed likely when the Padres drafted him in the second round in 2011.

He's an outstanding receiver with a plus arm that's also highly accurate, enough that he should be able to limit the running game when he's working with pitchers who try to hold runners. At the plate, Hedges surprised everyone during instructional league last fall with his raw power, showing some of it this summer as a 19-year-old in low Class A; he's got a long stride and gets very rotational, just opening his front hip a little early and not yet showing the plate discipline that will put him in better counts to get pitches he can drive.

He's somewhat riskier than most of the names in the top 50, primarily because he's a "power before hit" guy right now, but the defense and the potential for 20 homers, after a year where NL catchers slugged an aggregate .401, gives Hedges at least a 3-WAR upside.



Rank Player
37 David Dahl
Age: 18 (DOB: April 1, 1994)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: CF Organization: Colorado Rockies
Top '12 Level: Rookie (Grand Junction)
2012 ranking: IE

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
62AB
280HR
9RBI
57SB
12


SO
42BB
21AVG
.379OBP
.423SLG
.625
The Rockies don't have a complex-league team in Arizona, so all of their teenaged prospects, whether right out of the draft or just promoted from the Dominican Summer League, have to go to the higher-caliber Pioneer League, a very tough test for an 18-year-old just out of, say, Alabama.

All Dahl did was lead the league in batting average and slugging while finishing sixth in OBP (with another teenager, Cincinnati's Jesse Winker, leading in that category). Dahl earns a lot of comparisons to J.D. Drew, another athletic kid with good baseball skills but who didn't always show the kind of on-field energy people expected to see.

Dahl can run enough for center now but will probably fill out enough to have to move to a corner, and has the plus arm for right field. He's got very good bat speed with a pretty direct path to the ball, extending through contact for power that's average today and should finish in the above-average to plus range, probably 20-25 homers in a normal ballpark (that is, not Coors Field).

The alternate path for him would be to eschew some power to keep himself trim enough for center, which would likely make him just as valuable. He's a more advanced hitter than it seemed out of the spring, which is a huge positive sign for the Rockies, who should think about sending him to low Class A Asheville to start 2013.



Rank Player
38 Nick Castellanos
Age: 20 (DOB: March 4, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: 3B/OF Organization: Detroit Tigers
Top '12 Level: AA (Erie)
2012 ranking: 37

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
134AB
537HR
10RBI
57SB
8


SO
118BB
36AVG
.320OBP
.365SLG
.451
Castellanos is one of the best pure hitters in the minors, reaching Double-A at age 20 after hitting .405 in the first half for high Class A Lakeland. But some other deficiencies in his game limit his ultimate ceiling.

He has very strong hands, a simple swing (with a somewhat deep load) and outstanding rotational motion for future power, probably in the 25-30 homer range if he makes enough contact. He struggled with patience when he first reached Double-A, although he walked more in his final month than he did in his first two combined. He's a below-average runner who could have stayed at third if the Tigers had been patient with him, but they've moved him to right field now to accommodate the statue they have playing third in the big leagues, hurting Castellanos' value in the process.

What that leaves us with is a right fielder, potentially an average or better one, who should hit for average and power but has to improve his approach, especially recognition of borderline balls and strikes, to be able to get to the contact and the power. He'll still be an above-average regular, but at third he had a chance to be a star.



Rank Player
39 Carlos Martinez
Age: 21 (DOB: Sept. 2, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: St. Louis Cardinals
Top '12 Level: AA (Springfield)
2012 ranking: 22

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
22IP
104.1W
6L
5ERA
2.93


SO
92BB
32H
91HR
6BAA
.236
Martinez bounced back from a rough first go at high Class A Palm Beach in 2011, pitching well enough at the level to earn a promotion to Double-A, where he showed better command and generated a ton of ground balls. The one negative about the season is that in between the two levels he missed about a month with shoulder tendinitis, time the Cardinals used to try to slow him down and get him to repeat his delivery more consistently.

Martinez has top-of-the-rotation stuff, with a mid-90s fastball that he can dial up to 100, a hard low-80s curveball with sharp two-plane break, and a solid-average changeup that will flash better than that but for which he doesn't have the same feel as the other two pitches. He's listed at 6-foot, 165 pounds, and his slight frame earns comparisons to Pedro Martinez (who also had a better changeup, for that matter), so the bout of shoulder soreness is less than ideal.

If he can show he can stay healthy and effective for 150 innings this year, he'll be back in line to pitch in the top two slots in someone's rotation. If the shoulder issue recurs, he may end up a shutdown reliever with two pitches near the top of the 20-80 scale.



Rank Player
40 Jackie Bradley Jr.
Age: 22 (DOB: April 19, 1990)
Bats: LeftThrows: Right
Position: CF Organization: Boston Red Sox
Top '12 Level: AA (Portland)
2012 ranking: UR

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
128AB
463HR
9RBI
63SB
24


SO
89BB
87AVG
.315OBP
.430SLG
.482
Bradley is a potential Gold Glove defender in center -- meaning he'd be one of the best, not that he'd get the actual award, since the two have almost nothing to do with each other -- who should hit for average and get on base as long as he doesn't overextend himself and try to hit for power.

He is just an average runner but his reads on balls in center rival those of the other elite defensive center fielders in the minors, even ahead of guys like Albert Almora and Mason Williams. His lower half can be a little noisy at the plate, getting his front foot down late, gliding over his front side and sometimes even drifting back mid-swing. But when he keeps his swing short and simple he generates hard line-drive contact from foul line to foul line, with doubles power that might max out around 10-12 homers a year. When he over-rotates to try to hit the ball out, he doesn't make enough contact and the result of the tradeoff is a net negative.

His best attribute as a hitter has been his plate discipline, producing high walk rates in the minors with good pitch recognition as well, producing a .373 OBP after his promotion to Portland.

His emergence in 2012 will probably help the Red Sox feel like they can let Jacoby Ellsbury walk as a free agent after the 2013 season, with a cheaper replacement, one without all of the injuries, waiting in the wings.



Rank Player
41 Kyle Gibson
Age: 25 (DOB: Oct. 23, 1987)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Minnesota Twins
Top '12 Level: AAA (Rochester)
2012 ranking: UR

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
13IP
28.1W
0L
2ERA
4.13


SO
33BB
6H
26HR
3BAA
.243
Gibson missed the first half of 2012 while recovering from Tommy John surgery, falling off my list after ranking 32nd going into the 2011 season, but his comeback showed him throwing as hard and as well as ever, including a Fall League stint where he outshone all other starting pitchers in the circuit.

He is back to 92-94 with his four-seamer, and he works down in the zone to keep the ball on the ground as much as possible. His best pitch is a hard slider that he uses to wipe out right-handed hitters but also used in changeup counts against lefties, throwing it behind their hands or at their back feet just as they were leaning in to cover for changeups on the outer half. His change is hard at 84-85 but good enough with slight fading action to make hitters have to protect for it, so the slider plays up.

He might be on an innings limit in 2013, as it's his first full year back after surgery, but he's ready for the Twins' major league rotation and could be its best starter by the end of the year.



Rank Player
42 Jorge Soler
Age: 20 (DOB: Feb. 25, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RF Organization: Chicago Cubs
Top '12 Level: A (Peoria)
2012 ranking: IE

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
34AB
134HR
5RBI
25SB
12


SO
19BB
12AVG
.299OBP
.369SLG
.463
Soler signed before the new CBA rules on enriching owners at the expense of impoverished Latin American kids went into effect, signing with the Cubs for a $6 million bonus and $24 million in salary over nine years, although he can opt out of the deal if he becomes eligible for salary arbitration.

He's a wiry, athletic outfielder with explosive hands at the plate, starting them high and deep but getting them moving so quickly that he has no trouble catching up to good velocity. He doesn't look like a typical power hitter, but he's got the quick-twitch muscles to be able to rotate the bat through the zone and drive the ball out to left-center like an older or more physical player would. On defense, he might be playable in center for now but the Cubs have him in right, which would be his long-term position regardless.

Soler only played 34 games last summer after signing, but it's a point in his favor that he struck out just 19 times even though he hadn't faced live pitching on a regular basis in nearly two years. At just 21 this year, he should be able to get to Double-A with the upside of an above-average regular in right who should peak in the 25-30 home run range.



Rank Player
43 George Springer
Age: 23 (DOB: Sept. 19, 1989)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: CF Organization: Houston Astros
Top '12 Level: AA (Corpus Christi)
2012 ranking: 60

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
128AB
506HR
24RBI
87SB
32


SO
156BB
62AVG
.302OBP
.383SLG
.526
Springer is a true five-tool player who is, as scouts say, what prospects are supposed to look like, but the lack of adjustments in his approach in the last two years is becoming more and more of a concern.

On the plus side, Springer can run, throw, hit for power (including to the opposite field), and cover ground in center; if he has to move to a corner, he'll easily be plus in right, similar to Jason Heyward, a center fielder in high school who's become one of the game's best right fielders.

At the plate, Springer is fine when he's ahead in the count, with superlative hand acceleration, letting him load a little deeply and wait on the ball, then exploding to it with the bat speed and rotation to produce plus power. When he falls behind, however, he struggles to adjust, with no real two-strike approach -- he doesn't shorten up, he doesn't look for different pitch types, and he doesn't use the whole field.

These are all changes he is able to make, but hasn't yet. If he does, he's an All-Star and would give the Astros a second impact bat with Jonathan Singleton. If not, Springer might not make enough contact to be a big league regular.



Rank Player
44 Brian Goodwin
Age: 22 (DOB: Nov. 2, 1992)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: RF Organization: Washington Nationals
Top '12 Level: AA (Harrisburg)
2012 ranking: UR

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
100AB
382HR
14RBI
52SB
18


SO
89BB
61AVG
.280OBP
.384SLG
.469
Goodwin was a potential first-rounder out of high school, went to UNC, played like a future top-10 pick, was suspended for his sophomore year, and transferred to Miami-Dade Junior College where he played just poorly enough to slide to Washington in the sandwich round -- much to the Nats' joy, I imagine, given how he's turned out.

He has recovered from the one-year aberration, showing the plus-plus speed, quick bat, and surprising power that he displayed in his one year at Chapel Hill. Goodwin isn't big but generates that power mostly with bat speed, getting enough rotation to put some loft into his swing, although it might translate more as doubles/triples power in the majors. He's a 65 to 70 runner (on the 20-80 scouting scale) whose speed translate more in the field or underway than home to first, with plenty of arm for center.

The concern with Goodwin is the hit tool, specifically related to making contact, as his swing can get long and his recognition of off-speed isn't great; he punched out in nearly a third of his Double-A at-bats (after a two-level jump) and did the same in the Arizona Fall League. There's some Mike Cameron potential here, with defense, speed, and OBP, but with more doubles and fewer homers.



Rank Player
45 Bubba Starling
Age: 20 (DOB: Aug. 3, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: OF Organization: Kansas City Royals
Top '12 Level: Rookie (Burlington)
2012 ranking: 15

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
53AB
200HR
10RBI
33SB
10


SO
70BB
28AVG
.275OBP
.371SLG
.485
Starling's pro debut was good, not great, and he's still more about potential than performance, which wouldn't be a huge deal were it not for his age. Starling was a bit old for a high school senior and will be 20 years and 8 months on Opening Day this year, so he needs to be in a full-season league with an eye toward a midyear promotion to high Class A.

He still has all the tools that made him the first position player selected in the 2011 draft -- plus runner, plus raw power, a plus arm and the ability to be at least an above-average defender in center or plus in right. Starling's approach within at-bats improved over the course of the season, but he can still expand the zone too much, which, combined with a little bit of a hitch in his swing, led to the high strikeout totals.

He may always have some swing and miss, but could be like the good version of B.J. Upton, doing damage when he does make contact while adding value in all the other aspects of the game.



Rank Player
46 Corey Seager
Age: 18 (DOB: April 27, 1994)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: SS Organization: Los Angeles Dodgers
Top '12 Level: Rookie (Ogden)
2012 ranking: IE

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
46AB
175HR
8RBI
33SB
8


SO
33BB
21AVG
.309OBP
.383SLG
.520
Seager, the 18th overall pick in last June's draft, was one of a handful of high school prospects who benefited from the signing deadline moving from mid-August to mid-July. As a result, he was playing pro ball sooner and improving his stock (and perhaps getting closer to the big leagues) with a strong initial performance.

He won't stay at shortstop in pro ball because he'll outgrow it, but he should be a plus defender at third, with at least a 60 arm and above-average running speed (for now, at least). He loads his hands a little deep at the plate, almost barring the lead arm but not quite; he gets great hip rotation and keeps his weight back very well, producing both pull and opposite-field power, with 25-30 homer upside. He's more physical and toolsy than his older brother Kyle of the Mariners, but no less polished as a ballplayer at a comparable age.

Random Seager fact: The sample size was miniscule, but in 47 pro plate appearances against southpaws, the left-handed-hitting Seager posted a .333/.489/.639 line -- fun, even if it's probably not indicative of anything other than that he's not hopeless against them.



Rank Player
47 Taylor Guerrieri
Age: 20 (DOB: Dec. 1, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Tampa Bay Rays
Top '12 Level: A (Hudson Valley)
2012 ranking: 88

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
12IP
52W
1L
2ERA
1.04


SO
45BB
5H
35HR
0BAA
.186
Everyone in the industry knew that Guerrieri had ace-caliber stuff, with a fastball and curveball that would both show as plus, but the surprise in his pro debut in 2012 was how many strikes he threw. Before his final outing of the year, when he walked three batters, he had walked just two guys the rest of the season against 41 strikeouts. (He didn't walk a single right-handed batter the whole summer.)

Guerrieri ran it up to 97-98 mph pitching once a week at Spring Valley HS in Columbia, S.C., but settled in at 92-95 last summer, showing good command to both sides of the plate and attacking lefties on the inner half. The curveball has tight spin, two-plane break, and plenty of depth, 79-80 mph and showing plus more often than not. He's learning a changeup, which he never had to use in high school; it's running hot in the upper 80s but at least has some fading action to help him while he learns to ease up on it.

The makeup concerns teams had on Guerrieri out of the draft were not a factor in 2012, which also helps his stock. He's a potential ace who could move as quickly as the third pitch comes along, with the two plus pitches and the fastball command already in good shape.



Rank Player
48 Robert Stephenson
Age: 19 (DOB: Feb. 24, 1993)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Cincinnati Reds
Top '12 Level: A (Dayton)
2012 ranking: UR

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
15IP
65W
3L
4ERA
3.18


SO
72BB
23H
54HR
6BAA
.222
Stephenson had some of the best pure arm strength in the 2011 draft class, but his secondary stuff wasn't as advanced as the Dylan Bundy/Archie Bradley class of arms, and he had more violence in the delivery that raised questions about whether he'd throw strikes.

He started to answer those doubts with a strong 2012 showing around some Jekyll-and-Hyde performances in the middle. As a prep kid, Stephenson threw five or six different pitches and relied on a splitter -- which most high school hitters can't sniff -- as an out pitch. The Reds have simplified his approach, so now he's fastball-curve-changeup, still 93-98 and now at least flashing a plus curveball with tight rotation, although it's not consistent, while the changeup is still a work in progress.

He has some head violence in his delivery, but overall repeats everything well enough to throw strikes. He could end up a Grant Balfour-like arm out of the pen, if the secondary stuff doesn't come along, but he's shown so much progress that the Reds have likely found buried treasure here and a potential No. 1 or 2 starter.



Rank Player
49 Aaron Hicks
Age: 23 (DOB: Oct. 2, 1989)
Bats: Both Throws: Right
Position: CF Organization: Minnesota Twins
Top '12 Level: AA (New Britain)
2012 ranking: 80

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
129AB
472HR
13RBI
61SB
32


SO
116BB
79AVG
.286OBP
.384SLG
.460
Hicks is now in his fifth year on these rankings, and he's actually closest to where he ranked in his first time on the list (No. 56 back in January 2009).

After somewhat slow progress, mostly around his ability to recognize off-speed stuff, he finally seems ready to make his major league debut in 2013, with his glove already good enough to play center in Minneapolis once his bat arrives. Hicks is a patient hitter with a better swing from the right side, staying back better and showing more hand strength, resulting in more power against lefties than he shows against righties, but he's improved enough from the left side to show he can and should continue to switch-hit. He's a plus defender in center with an 80 arm and a plus runner who should be good for 25-30 bags a season, if not more.

If he develops 20-homer power, he's a potential star; if not, he's a very good everyday player thanks to his defense and potential for high OBPs.



Rank Player
50 Jonathan Schoop
Age: 21 (DOB: Oct. 16, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: IF Organization: Baltimore Orioles
Top '12 Level: AA (Bowie)
2012 ranking: 56

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
124AB
485HR
14RBI
56SB
5


SO
103BB
50AVG
.245OBP
.324SLG
.386
I'll readily concede that I'm higher on Schoop than much of the industry, but I think his poor performance after a too-aggressive promotion to Double-A has created a gap between his tools and the perception of how he'll be able to use them.

Schoop should have finished 2011 in low Class A, not high-A, but Baltimore compounded the error by starting him at Double-A in 2012 instead of returning him to high-A to let him succeed at the level before moving him up. He has a great right-handed swing with easy power and the ability to drive the ball the other way. His approach is good for a 20-year-old who's been trying to keep his head above water; in the Arizona Fall League, he recognized off-speed stuff well, but struggled against better pitchers who could change speeds and locations on him.

He's not a shortstop although he still plays it from time to time; he's got a 60 arm (on the 20-80 scale) and will have the power for third, where I prefer to see him, and should be agile enough for second. The O's should slow him down and return him to Double-A so he can get some success under his belt, especially against right-handed pitching, before moving him up to Triple-A. He's got 25-homer potential with the eye to keep his OBPs up, along with above-average defense at third or solid-average at second.
 
Ranking the top prospects (1-25).
Law's complete top 100: Index | 1-25 | 26-50 | 51-75 | 76-100




Rank Player
1 Jurickson Profar
Age: 19 (DOB: Feb. 20, 1993)
Bats: Both Throws: Right
Position: SS Organization: Texas Rangers
Top '12 Level: Majors (Rangers)
2012 ranking: 7

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
126AB
480HR
14RBI
62SB
16


SO
79BB
66AVG
.280OBP
.368SLG
.452
Profar is the best prospect in the minors this year thanks to an incredible combination of tools, skills, and baseball instincts rarely found in players who play in the middle of the field. His feel for the game is unusual for a player of any age, much less a teenager, and should put another nail in the coffin of the old saw that American-born players have better instincts.

He has an outstanding approach at the plate that allowed him to make the two-level jump from low Class A to Double-A without losing much production, and he showed more power this year than I expected; his frame isn't big but he stays upright through contact better now and he does get plenty of hip rotation to drive the ball. At short he has superlative actions with a plus-plus arm and plenty of range in both directions, so there's never been a question about his position.

A good defensive shortstop who posts OBPs around .400 and hits 15-20 homers a year is a player around whom you can build your roster, and who should help keep the Rangers in contention for the next decade.



Rank Player
2 Oscar Taveras
Age: 20 (DOB: June 19, 1992)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: OF Organization: St. Louis Cardinals
Top '12 Level: AA (Springfield)
2012 ranking: 53

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
124AB
477HR
23RBI
94SB
10


SO
56BB
42AVG
.321OBP
.380SLG
.572
If I told those of you who are Cardinals fans that Oscar Taveras would be the next Vladimir Guerrero, you'd take that, right? I disdain player comps since they so often reflect the wrong similarities -- national origin, alma mater, sometimes even facial resemblances -- but this one fits shockingly well aside from their handedness.

Taveras, a left-handed hitter, has a furious swing with outstanding plate coverage, doesn't walk much or strike out much and, new in 2012, has plus raw power. He shortened his swing last offseason, getting his hands a little lower and tighter and creating a more direct path to the ball, but still has the same ability to go out of the zone and square up pitches most hitters could only foul off.

He has played center and right in the minors, but the corner is his more likely home. He'll have plenty of range, although he doesn't have Vlad's arm (few do). Taveras could be up this year and playing every day, with the potential for .300 averages and 30-plus homer seasons at his peak.



Rank Player
3 Dylan Bundy
Age: 20 (DOB: Nov. 15, 1992)
Bats: Both Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Baltimore Orioles
Top '12 Level: Majors (Orioles)
2012 ranking: 11

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
23IP
103.2W
9L
3ERA
2.08


SO
119BB
28H
67HR
6BAA
.186
Bundy, the fourth overall pick in the 2011 draft, made it pretty clear this spring that he should have gone No. 1, with his height (he's 6 feet tall) and the perceived risk of prep right-handers the only real arguments against him.

He was probably ready for Double-A by midyear if not sooner, but started the season in low Class A on a highly restricted pitch count, tearing the Sally League into tiny pieces before moving up to high-A in late May and pitching extremely well there too. He did that all without his best weapon, a hard cutter that breaks like a slider but at velocities up to 89 mph, which the organization asked him to set aside while he developed his other stuff.

Bundy did work on his other off-speed pitches this year, with a solid-average curveball and a changeup that probably won't be as effective as the cutter, and he has some work to do with fastball command. He has one of the minors' best deliveries, his conditioning is superb and he's a diligent kid with a great work ethic. So while he may not pitch in the Orioles' rotation until 2014 or so, he still has No. 1 starter upside.



Rank Player
4 Wil Myers
Age: 22 (DOB: Dec. 20, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: OF Organization: Tampa Bay Rays
Top '12 Level: AAA (Omaha)
2012 ranking: 13

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
134AB
522HR
37RBI
109SB
6


SO
140BB
61AVG
.314OBP
.387SLG
.600
Myers returns to the top ten after an enormous season between Double- and Triple-A that ended, somewhat shockingly, with an offseason trade from the Royals to the Rays in a six-player deal that brought James Shields to Kansas City.

Myers should have debuted in Kansas City last summer, but the team just won't give up on Jeff Francoeur, which may in turn have made Myers more available this winter. His swing is very simple and he has quick wrists to generate bat speed; he's lengthened his stride for his game at-bats, giving him a longer finish for more power with the slight downside of some collapse on his back side, which probably explains the high strikeout rate in Triple. On defense, he can fake center field but belongs in right; he's athletic enough to handle it with a plus arm but needs work on his reads, as you'd expect from a player who was a catcher coming out of the draft.

He's a patient hitter who needs to work on bat control and might struggle to hit for average at first, producing via walks and power, with an eventual ceiling as a high-average, high-power player who hits second or fourth in a lineup and ranks among the top five players in the league. There's just no way the Rays could turn a chance to get a young impact bat like this down.



Rank Player
5 Xander Bogaerts
Age: 20 (DOB: Oct. 1, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: SS Organization: Boston Red Sox
Top '12 Level: AA (Portland)
2012 ranking: 62

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
127AB
476HR
20RBI
81SB
5


SO
106BB
44AVG
.307OBP
.373SLG
.523
A year ago, Bogaerts looked like a high-ceiling bat who'd have to find a new position, most likely third base, but a year of full-season ball at shortstop with continued work on maintaining his conditioning has his odds of remaining in the middle of the field up over even money. And a shortstop who can hit like this is a pretty special commodity.

Bogaerts has a very easy, picturesque right-handed swing, with great hand acceleration that leads to surprisingly hard contact -- the ball comes off his bat much better than you'd expect, given his size. He gets his front leg down a little late, which could lead to timing issues but hasn't so far.

He's not likely to become a plus defender at short, but even fringe-average defense there would make him a five-win player or more given his bat. And given how he has managed to keep his waist lean and his lower half athletic so far, I like his chances to do just that.



Rank Player
6 Christian Yelich
Age: 21 (DOB: Dec. 5, 1991)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: OF Organization: Miami Marlins
Top '12 Level: A (Jupiter)
2012 ranking: 48

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
107AB
401HR
12RBI
48SB
20


SO
85BB
49AVG
.329OBP
.402SLG
.516
Yelich has one of the prettiest swings in the minors, with strong, steady hands; a short and very consistent path to the ball; and good rotational motion giving him some power in his follow-through.

At just 20 years old for the 2012 season, Yelich led the high Class A Florida State League in slugging while finishing second in batting average and OBP (behind a 24-year-old), even hitting left-handed pitchers at a reasonable rate. He's a good athlete and solid-average runner who can handle the range aspects of center field but whose awkward throwing motion has always made him a candidate to move to left field. He has improved just enough that center looks like it might be an option long term.

In left, his bat will still profile as an above-average regular or better as he gets on base and hits 20-plus homers a year, but if he's just an average defender in center he should be a five-win player or better at his peak.



Rank Player
7 Francisco Lindor
Age: 19 (DOB: Nov. 14, 1993)
Bats: Both Throws: Right
Position: SS Organization: Cleveland Indians
Top '12 Level: A (Lake County)
2012 ranking: 35

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
122AB
490HR
6RBI
42SB
27


SO
78BB
61AVG
.257OBP
.352SLG
.355
Lindor played all of 2012 in a full-season league -- at age 18 one of the youngest regulars anywhere outside of short-season ball -- and handled himself extremely well both at the plate and in the field.

A legitimate switch-hitter, Lindor has a better swing right-handed, keeping his weight back longer and staying steadier through contact, but his left-handed approach is so advanced that he'll be productive from that side even if he never quite equalizes his two swings. On defense he's incredibly instinctive with great hands and a plus arm. The only substantial question is what kind of power he'll have when he matures, since he doesn't have a big frame and his swing doesn't have a ton of loft. But guys who make a lot of hard line-drive contact often end up with above-average power despite a lack of size.

Even if that doesn't happen, he projects as a plus defensive shortstop who posts very high OBPs and steals 20-30 bags a year, a likely All-Star at a position where most teams are desperate for anyone who can catch the ball.



Rank Player
8 Gerrit Cole
Age: 22 (DOB: Sept. 8, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Pittsburgh Pirates
Top '12 Level: AAA (Indianapolis)
2012 ranking: 10

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
26IP
132W
9L
7ERA
2.80


SO
136BB
45H
113HR
7BAA
.230
Cole's performance in high Class A and Double-A was solid enough, but it's more impressive when you consider how many things he was working on while putting up those lines.

He has hit 102 mph with his four-seamer, but it's so flat and hitters get a good-enough look at it that it's not his best pitch. He can make it more effective by using his plus-plus changeup, a true swing-and-miss pitch right now, and mixing in more two-seamers in the 94-96 range to keep hitters from squaring up the four-seam version. His slider is up to 87-90 and when it's right it's hard and appears to break very late, although it's not that consistent and he can try to overthrow it.

Cole's biggest issue now is fastball command, not just physically but mentally. He has to break that tendency to try to respond to adversity on the mound by putting the next pitch through the catcher, working instead on locating it and mixing in those other pitches. This was his first full year of calling his own games, with plenty of positives, and given another half-year or so in the minors he should be ready for the Pirates' rotation, with a future as a No. 1 starter.



Rank Player
9 Taijuan Walker
Age: 20 (DOB: Aug. 13, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Seattle Mariners
Top '12 Level: AA (Jackson)
2012 ranking: 24

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
25IP
126.2W
7L
10ERA
4.69


SO
118BB
50H
124HR
12BAA
.258
The Mariners wisely chose to jump Walker over the high Class A California League, keeping him away from an insane hitter's park in High Desert but making the 19-year-old the youngest starter to spend the whole season in Double-A.

He's one of the most athletic pitchers in the minors, with a loose, easy delivery that generates plus velocity with minimal effort. He struggled with his off-speed stuff in 2012, with the curveball disappearing for much of the year but becoming consistent again in August. The pitch has good depth, but he needs to tighten it up and maintain his arm speed when throwing it because it can be pretty but too slow, in the 74-75 mph range. His changeup is promising but too hard and straight in the upper 80s, even touching 90, at which point it does the hitter who couldn't sniff the 97 mph fastball a favor.

The fact that Walker held his own in Double-A at such a young age is a great sign for his upside; it's now on him to translate that athleticism into better off-speed stuff and a more aggressive plan with his fastball, allowing him to reach that No. 1 starter upside.



Rank Player
10 Addison Russell
Age: 19 (DOB: Jan. 23, 1994)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: SS Organization: Oakland A's
Top '12 Level: A (Burlington)
2012 ranking: IE

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
55AB
217HR
7RBI
45SB
16


SO
48BB
23AVG
.369OBP
.432SLG
.594
If teams could redo the 2012 draft today, Russell wouldn't make it to the 11th pick as he did in June, not after a stellar pro debut -- reaching the full-season Midwest League before his 19th birthday.

Russell entered his senior year at Miami's Monsignior Pace HS hearing grave doubts about his ability to remain at shortstop, but chose to drop some of his upper-body muscle and restore his athleticism so scouts would view him as a middle-of-the-diamond player -- which he is, clearly, given how well he played there all spring and summer last year. He has a smooth, repeatable right-handed swing with a line-drive-oriented follow-through, although his bat speed is so good that he could have plus power down the road. At short, his feet are his only weakness, but his hands are off the charts and his arm is more than fine for the left side.

The sample in pro ball was small, but his approach looked very advanced all summer and held even as he moved past his draft classmates. He's a potential impact player in the middle of the field who might reach that point sooner than most prep kids reach the bigs.



Rank Player
11 Miguel Sano
Age: 19 (DOB: May 11, 1993)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: 3B Organization: Minnesota Twins
Top '12 Level: A (Beloit)
2012 ranking: 28

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
129AB
457HR
28RBI
100SB
8


SO
144BB
80AVG
.258OBP
.373SLG
.521
The highly touted Sano had a real breakout year in 2012: on the field, where he made his full-season debut at age 19, and off it, where he was one of the main subjects of the documentary "Pelotero," which detailed the messy efforts by several clubs, notably the Pirates, to sign him in 2009.

On the field is what matters here, of course, and Sano's year in the Midwest League was an enormous success. He showed huge improvements in his approach at the plate and continued to press hard to keep himself at a size that can keep him in the infield long term. He has some of the easiest power in the minors, with a clean rotational swing that generates most of its power from his hips and legs, driving the ball to all fields and showing he can send the ball to the gaps even when he doesn't get all of it. The spike in his walk rate -- more than 75 percent higher than it was in 2011, even with the jump in levels -- speaks volumes about his willingness to work and make adjustments. That should mitigate concerns about his contact rate (which also improved as the season went on).

On defense, I saw Sano play an indifferent third base in August, but I've had sources tell me they saw more effort there, and he has the arm and the feet to handle the position if he doesn't outgrow it. Third base is a void in the minors right now, so he's far a more valuable asset if he can stay at the position. And with 30-40 homer power and the chance for mid-.300 OBPs, he'd be the anchor for the Twins' lineup for years.



Rank Player
12 Tyler Skaggs
Age: 21 (DOB: July 13, 1991)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: LHP Organization: Arizona Diamondbacks
Top '12 Level: Majors (D-backs)
2012 ranking: 25

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
22IP
122.1W
9L
6ERA
2.87


SO
116BB
37H
112HR
12BAA
.246
Skaggs' evolution as a pitcher continued in 2012, establishing him as the top left-handed pitching prospect still in the minors.

He'll pitch mostly at 91-93 mph, touching 94 occasionally, with a four-seamer that he'll throw inside to hitters but needs to keep down in the zone as much as possible. His curveball at 74-79 has depth as well as clear two-plane break, although it breaks so much he sometimes has trouble finishing it in the zone. His upper-70s changeup flashes plus with some fading action and good arm speed. Skaggs makes good use of his height (he's 6-foot-3), staying on top of the ball well through release and adding some deception to an otherwise clean delivery. His frame could still handle a little more weight to increase his stamina and maybe add another tick of velocity.

Even as-is, he's a grade of fastball command away from being a No. 2 starter with three above-average-to-plus pitches and the ability to wipe out hitters on both sides of the plate.



Rank Player
13 Zack Wheeler
Age: 22 (DOB: May 30, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: New York Mets
Top '12 Level: AAA (Buffalo)
2012 ranking: 27

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
25IP
149W
12L
8ERA
3.26


SO
148BB
59H
115HR
4BAA
.221
It's kind of ironic that the Giants won two World Series in three years, but the trade that sent away their best prospect in 2011 (Wheeler for Carlos Beltran) didn't so much as contribute to a playoff appearance.

Wheeler mopped the floor with Eastern League hitters before a late-season promotion to Triple-A. He'll pitch at 91-96 and touched 98 in a brief stint at the Futures Game. He has an out-pitch curveball up to 80 mph and a straight change that is probably too hard to be truly effective, with lefties posting a .386 OBP against him in Double-A. Wheeler takes a long stride toward the plate with big hip rotation to generate arm speed, and he pitches very aggressively with the fastball.

If he can improve his feel for the changeup, either taking a little off it or adjusting his grip to give it some life, he has a chance for three 60-grade pitches or better on the scouting report -- along with a durable build and the control to pitch in the majors right away, which would make him no worse than a solid No. 2.



Rank Player
14 Travis d'Arnaud
Age: 23 (DOB: Feb. 10, 1989)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: C Organization: New York Mets
Top '12 Level: AAA (Las Vegas)
2012 ranking: 6

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
67AB
279HR
16RBI
52SB
1


SO
59BB
19AVG
.333OBP
.380SLG
.595
Speaking of players who can't stay healthy, d'Arnaud hits for average and power, throws well, handles pitchers well -- and gets hurt at least once a year, reaching 400 plate appearaces in a season just twice in five years. Injuries to his knees, back, finger and more have kept him off the field.

He has plus raw power, thanks to good hip rotation and a big finish to his swing, giving him 25-30 homer potential if he can ever play a full season. He has solid hand-eye coordination for contact but doesn't walk much, so he might peak as a .280 hitter with a .330-.340 OBP, buoyed more by his power than anything else. His defense has improved substantially since he was first drafted by the Phillies, with throwing the strongest aspect of his game.

Everything about his game is ready for the majors or close to it, but he has to show he can handle a full season without hitting the DL: A player who plays like an All-Star for just 80 games a year but spends the rest in the trainer's room has value but will always be perceived as a disappointment.



Rank Player
15 Mike Zunino
Age: 21 (DOB: March 25, 1991)
Bats: RightThrows: Right
Position: C Organization: Seattle Mariners
Top '12 Level: AA (Jackson)
2012 ranking: IE

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
44AB
161HR
13RBI
43SB
1


SO
33BB
23AVG
.360OBP
.447SLG
.689
Zunino was the third overall pick and first college player chosen in 2012, a polished offensive catcher out of Florida with no doubts about his ability to stay at the position, offering average to above-average tools but nothing truly plus.

His swing isn't entirely conventional, with a slight drift over his front side, but he keeps his weight back enough to drive the ball. His real asset at the plate is his hands, strong and quick, giving him the ability to go to all fields, and, combined with good leverage from proper hip rotation, at least average power if not better. He's an adequate receiver with an average arm and slowish release, although that last point can be improved with better coaching in pro ball.

He advanced very quickly in his first pro summer, hitting well in a tiny sample in Double-A, and could debut at some point this year, giving the Mariners the long-term catcher they've lacked for years.



Rank Player
16 Jose Fernandez
Age: 20 (DOB: July 31, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Miami Marlins
Top '12 Level: A (Jupiter)
2012 ranking: 18

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
25IP
134W
14L
1ERA
1.75


SO
158BB
35H
89HR
2BAA
.191
Fernandez might have had the best year of any pitching prospect in full-season ball, graded just by performance, showing two plus pitches and better command of both of them than expected, reaching high Class A before his 20th birthday in late July.

He comes from just under three-quarters, sits in the mid-90s and will regularly hit the 97-99 range with heavy life (although he's not a big ground ball guy). He throws both a curve and a slider; his downer low-80s curveball is a real swing-and-miss pitch that would miss right-handers' bats in the majors today; the upper-80s slider is also quite effective, with more tilt than the curve to break away from right-handers' bats.

He does have a big frame that sits on the border between "durable" and "heavy," which won't be a problem if he maintains his conditioning but will require more work than the typical pitcher has to do to keep himself in shape. He also needs to develop an average changeup, a pitch he barely had to work on in 2012 because the fastball/breaking ball were so effective, although he did have a modest platoon split at both levels.

The Marlins should push him so that he's challenged in 2013 and forced to make adjustments, including developing that third pitch, to get him closer to that No. 1 starter upside.



Rank Player
17 Anthony Rendon
Age: 22 (DOB: June 6, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: 3B Organization:Washington Nationals
Top '12 Level: AA (Harrisburg)
2012 ranking: 17

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
43AB
133HR
6RBI
12SB
0


SO
29BB
23AVG
.233OBP
.363SLG
.489
When he's healthy, he hits, but the man with the cut-glass ankles needs to keep himself on the field for a full season in 2013.

Rendon has tremendous bat speed with a very advanced approach at the plate, discriminating well between balls and strikes and putting himself in favorable counts; his strikeouts are less a result of passivity than a result of mistiming pitches within the zone. He drifts a little over his front side but is so rotational that he can still drive the ball out to the gaps, with 40-50 doubles potential even if he tops out at 15 or so homers. He's blocked at third base by Ryan Zimmerman, which leaves future position in doubt. However, he has excellent instincts and great hands. Although he has always been quick on his feet, that will eventually slip if he keeps hurting his ankles -- and second base, a position that is particularly hard on players' lower halves, seems like a disastrous idea.

He made up for some of the four months he missed during the regular season with a strong campaign in the Arizona Fall League, but still needs to show he can hold up for a full season. His bat isn't that far away once he's healthy enough and there's an opportunity in D.C.



Rank Player
18 Gary Sanchez
Age: 20 (DOB: Dec. 2, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: C Organization: New York Yankees
Top '12 Level: A (Tampa)
2012 ranking: 55

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
116AB
435HR
18RBI
85SB
15


SO
106BB
32AVG
.290OBP
.344SLG
.485
Sanchez entered 2012 with few doubts about his bat but many about his receiving skills and his maturity; he continued to hit while answering many of those other questions, earning himself the promotion to high Class A he didn't get out of spring training.

He arrived in Tampa last spring in better shape and improved his receiving substantially over the previous year, not just physically but in his effort level on and off the field, to the point where he's now very likely to remain behind the plate. His arm strength is probably a 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale, but some hesitation before he releases the ball has it playing below that, something that can probably be improved in time -- and even as is he can show pop times to second base under two seconds.

Sanchez' offensive potential is tremendous; despite an exaggerated leg kick, he gets his lead foot down in time, keeping his weight back enough to drive the ball, even showing doubles power the other way thanks to strong hands and excellent hip rotation. He's aggressive but not a hacker and doesn't expand the zone too much for a 19-year-old in full season ball, although he'll need to tighten up his pitch recognition before he gets to Double-A.

The Yankees were thrilled with his progress this year, including his improved attitude and work ethic, meaning we can seriously talk about him as the Yankees' catcher of the future, perhaps starting as early as 2015.



Rank Player
19 Aaron Sanchez
Age: 20 (DOB: July 1, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Toronto Blue Jays
Top '12 Level: A (Lansing)
2012 ranking: 96

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
25IP
90.1W
8L
5ERA
2.49


SO
97BB
51H
64HR
3BAA
.204
If you talked to the Blue Jays this winter about a trade, there was just one prospect you couldn't discuss; teams could and did pry loose the next four guys in their system, but Aaron Sanchez was untouchable. For good reason: Ace stuff like this is too hard to come by for the Blue Jays to let it go.

Even though his body isn't fully mature yet, Sanchez worked in the mid- to upper 90s all year on restricted pitch counts, turning a lineup over a third time in only five of his 25 outings. His curveball became sharper this year and his changeup, his third-best pitch coming into the season, was so effective that he showed a big reverse platoon split -- allowing just two extra-base hits to left-handed batters all year while punching out nearly a third of them. His delivery is very easy and he gets good life on his fastball to keep the ball on the ground. Aside from mot being stretched out to throw 150-plus innings, Sanchez also has to improve his command and control, something no one seriously doubts he'll do given his makeup, his athleticism and how easily he repeats his delivery. It's time for him to take that leap in 2013.

Look for him to start in high Class A and build up to 130 innings or so this year, with a possible ETA of 2014 and a projection as a No. 1 starter a few years beyond that.



Rank Player
20 Jameson Taillon
Age: 21 (DOB: Nov. 18, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Pittsburgh Pirates
Top '12 Level: AA (Altoona)
2012 ranking: 16

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
26IP
142W
9L
8ERA
3.55


SO
116BB
38H
120HR
10BAA
.225
Taillon has top-of-the-rotation stuff, not that far behind teammate Gerrit Cole's arsenal, but doesn't miss as many bats as you'd expect given what comes out of his arm and may be more of a 1A to Cole's 1 when it's all said and done.

In his defense, the Pirates have done a lot with Taillon to clean up his delivery, which was more of a "me throw hard now" approach in high school, while also mixing in a two-seamer up to 95 mph to balance the lack of deception from his arm action. His curveball remains a plus pitch and his changeup has improved to the point where it's a legitimate third offering right now. He was on a tight leash early in the season, but acquitted himself well in three Double-A starts at the end of the year, even getting up to 26 batters faced in his last outing, walking just one guy total in those starts.

With better fastball command and more comfort with the two-seamer as an alternative to throwing it through the catcher, he'll come a lot closer to the pitcher we thought the Pirates were getting with the second overall pick in 2010.



Rank Player
21 Shelby Miller
Age: 22 (DOB: Oct. 10, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: St. Louis Cardinals
Top '11 Level: Majors (Cardinals)
2012 ranking: 5

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
27IP
136.2W
11L
10ERA
4.74


SO
160BB
50H
138HR
24BAA
.260
Miller had a down-and-up year, struggling for much of the season with his delivery, resulting in flatter stuff and reduced command that explain the high home run rate he suffered in Triple-A. By early August, he'd restored his old mechanics, and the Miller you saw in the majors in September, lighting up the Reds on the final day of the season, is the guy you'll see in the Cardinals' rotation sooner rather than later.

His fastball will reach 97 mph, but he'll sit as a starter in the low- to mid-90s; his hard curveball is his out pitch in the upper 70s to low 80s, while his changeup continues to improve and will flash above-average. Miller's first/second-half splits from Triple-A tell the story of his mechanical issues; after the break, he walked just seven with 70 punchouts and gave up seven of his 24 homers. He's always going to be a little fly-ball prone because of the lack of life on his fastball, but he has the easy delivery to allow him to command it and the out-pitch breaking ball to miss bats.

The Cardinals entertained trade proposals involving Miller, but given how far he has come and the uncertainty around Jaime Garcia's health, I imagine he's untouchable right now.



Rank Player
22 Byron Buxton
Age: 19 (DOB: Dec. 18, 1993)
Bats: RightThrows: Right
Position: CF Organization: Minnesota Twins
Top '12 Level: Rookie (Elizabethton)
2012 ranking: IE

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
48AB
155HR
5RBI
20SB
11


SO
41BB
19AVG
.248OBP
.344SLG
.448
The second pick in last year's draft, Buxton was one of the class' top athletes: an 80 runner (on the 20-80 scouting scale) with barely any body fat, a plus center fielder who could sit in the low 90s on the mound, but who played high school ball in rural Georgia and showed almost no power in his senior year.

Buxton resembles a young Eric Davis physically, running as well and effortlessly as Davis did before injuries interrupted his career, even better underway than he is home to first. Like Billy Hamilton, Buxton can handle center right now even though his reads on balls need some improvement. Buxton has quick wrists and gets good rotation in his right-handed swing, with good hand-eye coordination but a slight tendency for his swing to get long on balls out of the zone. He has the hip rotation and extension to eventually hit for above-average power, although his back foot comes off the ground as he rotates, which will make it harder for him to drive the ball until it's corrected. After a slow start in pro ball where he started 1-for-27, Buxton hit .290/.380/.529 the rest of the way in 138 at-bats across two levels, more in line with expectations for a slightly older high school senior and giving him a chance to start 2013 in full-season ball at age 19.

He might be a slow mover like fellow Twins prospect Aaron Hicks, but has similar upside as an impact defender in center who can contribute with the bat as well.



Rank Player
23 Kaleb Cowart
Age: 20 (DOB: June 2, 1992)
Bats: BothThrows: Right
Position: 3B Organization: Los Angeles Angels
Top '12 Level: A (Inland Empire)
2012 ranking: UR

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
135AB
526HR
16RBI
103SB
14


SO
111BB
67AVG
.276OBP
.358SLG
.452
Cowart now ranks as the top prospect in a depleted Angels system, but he'd be at or near the top of most teams' lists on his own merits as a potentially plus defender at third who looks like he'll hit and hit for power.

A two-way star in high school who topped out at 96 mph off the mound, Cowart has great actions at third and really good hands as well as a plus arm, although his release isn't natural for an infielder. At the plate, Cowart is a legitimate switch-hitter, even though his left-handed swing can get a little long, with more power hitting left-handed but better contact when hitting right-handed. His at-bats continue to improve even as he moves up the ladder, and he has proved to be less raw at the plate than expected given how weak his high school competition in rural Georgia was.

The Angels don't have a lot of impact in their system right now, and Cowart is their best chance to produce another homegrown star who can produce 4-5 wins above replacement in a season.



Rank Player
24 Carlos Correa
Age: 18 (DOB: Sept. 22, 1994)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: SS Organization: Houston Astros
Top '12 Level: Rookie (Greeneville)
2012 ranking: IE

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
50AB
190HR
3RBI
12SB
6


SO
44BB
12AVG
.258OBP
.305SLG
.400
The first overall pick in last year's draft, Correa signed for well under the pick's recommended signing bonus, but was second on my draft board and a valid top selection based strictly on merit; 17-year-old infielders with his kind of raw power and hand-eye coordination aren't terribly easy to come by.

Correa gets tremendous torque from his hip rotation and stays extremely balanced through contact, even though his bat speed is so good it might knock a less coordinated hitter down. He's athletic enough to stay at short now, with plenty of arm, but he's going to be so well-built and physical that it's hard to imagine that he'll stay in the middle of the field. Third base is the most likely destination, one he should be able to handle without trouble.

As a potential 30-homer bat who'll be strong defensively, he has star potential over there, and at 17 he has plenty of time to prove the Astros wise for making him the centerpiece of their 2012 draft class.



Rank Player
25 Trevor Bauer
Age: 22 (DOB: Jan. 17, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Cleveland Indians
Top '12 Level: Majors (D-backs)
2012 ranking: 21

2012 MINORS STATS


GM
22IP
130.1W
12L
2ERA
2.42


SO
157BB
61H
107HR
9BAA
.230
Forget, for the moment, what you think you know about Bauer, or what you heard second- or third-hand -- some of it from the Diamondbacks organization after Bauer had already traded him to the Indians. If I told you your club could acquire a 22-year-old starter who'd won the Golden Spikes Award in his junior year, who could run his four-seamer up to 97 mph, had a true out-pitch curveball he needed to throw for strikes more consistently, and who was an intelligent kid with strong opinions on pitching plans and maintaining his delivery, would you want him on your team eight days a week or nine?

Bauer's big-league tenure in 2012 was a fiasco, heading downhill when he strained a groin muscle in his first outing and didn't speak up and hitting bottom when he and Miguel Montero ended up in a public feud over their lack of coordination on how to attack hitters, but the biggest problem of all was that Bauer didn't throw strikes when he was behind in the count. Pac 12 hitters might chase stuff out of the zone when they're up 2-0 or 3-1, but most big league hitters won't, and until Bauer shows he can throw his two primary pitches for quality strikes, they'll wait him out.

Given his age and intelligence, there's no reason to think Bauer can't make that adjustment in time, and Cleveland has every incentive to help him get there. I think they just stole a No. 2 starter from Arizona, and even if my long-term concerns about his complex delivery hold true, he might give them 600-800 high-quality innings before anything goes wrong.
 
10 prospects who just missed.
Every year I do the top 100 list, I start out with long lists of names for each club, then winnow those to 10 per team, and then pull about 120 or so names from those lists to create the master ranking of the top 100 prospects. Names move around as I go through reports and video and circulate my list to sources I trust in the industry. Inevitably, guys I like for one reason or another just miss the final cut.



Here are 10 more guys who earned strong consideration for the main list but didn't make it. They're presented in rough descending order, so it's fair to assume that the first guy listed here, Henry Owens, was No. 101.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




Henry Owens, LHP
Age: 19
Top 2012 level: A (Greeneville)
Key stat: 11.5 K/9



Owens works at just 88-92 mph with a big, slow curveball and some feel for a change, but has posted high strikeout totals in the low minors because he hides the ball so well behind his 6-foot-6 frame that hitters don't pick it up, swinging through 88 mph like it's 94 mph. That can work for guys in the big leagues, but I'd like to see Owens, who doesn't have a ton of projection for future velocity gains, do it against a higher caliber of hitter before buying in fully.





--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




Yordano Ventura, RHP
Age: 21
Top 2012 level: AA (Northwest Arkansas)
Key stat: 10.7 K/9



Ventura started the 2012 Futures Game for the World Team, and last season was full of positives for his evolution from thrower to pitcher. He can miss a lot of bats with his overpowering fastball, but his breaking ball is very inconsistent and his changeup, while promising, is still rudimentary. He could be an impact starter, but both off-speed pitches have to improve quite a bit before that can happen.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




Jose Ramirez, RHP
Age: 23
Top 2012 level: A (Tampa)
Key stat: 3.19 ERA



Ramirez has been on the fringes of the prospect map for ages -- he was my sleeper prospect for the Yankees' system in 2010 -- but injuries have limited him to fewer than 120 innings in each of the past three season. He's filled out quite a bit in the past three years, with more than 200 pounds on his 6-3 frame, and will work at 94-98 mph with big-time life and a hard mid-80s slider. He's off the top 100 because of all the injuries, missing time each of the past two years with elbow trouble and in 2010 with shoulder inflammation.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




Jose Ramirez, 2B
Age: 20
Top 2012 level: A (Lake County)
Key stat: .869 OPS



Ramirez, who is no relation to the Yankees pitcher above, is a natural shortstop who played second this year for Lake County because Francisco Lindor was on the team, although Ramirez' best position in the long run might be second base anyway. He's got the hit tool already, with good hand-eye and a mature approach at the plate, as well as above-average running speed. He stands just 5-9 and is not going to hit for power, so he'll need to keep those high contact rates and batting averages as he moves up and plays a full season in 2013.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




Robbie Grossman, LF
Age: 23
Top 2012 level: AA (Corpus Christi)
Key stat: .376 OBP



There's a strong feeling that Grossman won't profile as an everyday left fielder because he won't hit for the kind of power required for the position. I'm a little more sanguine about Grossman's approach, that he'll get on base enough to make himself an average or better regular, even if his production doesn't have the typical shape for that position.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




Jeimer Candelario, 3B
Age: 19
Top 2012 level: A (Boise)
Key stat: .741 OPS



He's an offensive third baseman with great rhythm at the plate and a smooth swing, showing just enough to make you think he can stay at third base. I'd just like to see the offensive skill set translate into a little more performance before buying in all the way, because the defense will never be a plus. If you squint, you might see a Pablo Sandoval future here.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




Carlos Sanchez, IF
Age: 20
Top 2012 level: AAA (Charlotte)
Key stat: .323 AVG



Sanchez has bolted through the system -- he was still in the Dominican Summer League in 2010, and finished last year in Triple-A. I think he's a second baseman in the long run, but he's not useless at shortstop, and in another era he might have been a true "super-utility guy" who played 150 games but did so at multiple positions.



He's off the main list because I don't think he profiles as an above-average regular anywhere -- the defense at short isn't enough to make him an everyday guy, and while I think he'll hit .300, I don't think he has the power to be a star elsewhere. All that aside, though, I do like him as a second baseman with high probability to hit.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




Brandon Maurer, RHP
Age: 22
Top 2012 level: AA (Jackson)
Key stat: 3.20 ERA



He's a four-pitch starter who'll touch 95 mph and he flashes a plus curveball, but has had a lot of injury trouble and doesn't have all four pitches every time out. He works down in the zone and is very aggressive, mixing all his pitches and generating some bad swings. He missed the top 100 because despite the stuff, he's neither a ground ball guy nor a strikeout guy, and his 137 innings in 2012 were more than he'd thrown in the previous two years combined.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




Sonny Gray, RHP
Age: 23
Top 2012 level: AAA (Sacramento)
Key stat: 0.5 HR/9



Like Grossman, Gray dropped off the top 100 this year because of questions about his ceiling. The A's worked with Gray on taking a little off his fastball, which would sit in the mid-90s but lacked sink or life, so he could generate more ground balls, which he did, but the tradeoff was that he missed a lot fewer bats, striking out fewer than six per nine inning in 2012.



He'll also need to keep working on that changeup to be more effective against left-handed hitters. He has the athleticism and makeup to start, and can hold his velocity, but has to miss more bats or he'll end up a (very good) reliever instead.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




Brandon Nimmo, OF
Age: 19
Top 2012 level: A (Brooklyn)
Key stat: .372 OBP



Nimmo played in short-season ball last year at age 19, but given his limited baseball experience -- his Wyoming high school didn't have a team, so he played on an American Legion club instead -- the Mets were justified in taking it slow with him, and he showed some real positives, especially his plate discipline and his ability to handle center field.



Lefties ate him alive (.594 OPS against), and he faded badly at the end of the summer, while it still remains to be seen how the ACL in his right knee -- which he blew out playing high school football -- will handle a full 140-game minor league season.
 
Astros betting on patience.
All of the baseball moons and stars have aligned for a memorable 2013 season for the Houston Astros, in the way that the '62 Mets and the 2003 Detroit Tigers are remembered. To rival talent evaluators, there is no question that Houston will struggle for victories.



"What you question is, how bad can they be?" said an NL official.



Whether the management strategy of the Astros is adept and will lead to good things is really a separate issue that won't be answered for many years. As new general manager Jeff Luhnow has completely rebuilt the organization by applying his vision, the Astros have set themselves up to pick at the top of the draft for consecutive years, which is how Tampa Bay and Washington landed the likes of David Price, Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper. This may well pay off in four or five or six years, although there are former Pirates and Kansas City officials who will testify that collecting prospects doesn't necessarily guarantee success.



But for now, the Astros have redefined what it means to strip down a major league team. Consider the fate of Houston's opening day lineup from just 10 months ago:



Five of the nine starters from 2012 have been traded, along with others. Jed Lowrie, who was set to make $2.4 million for this season -- and be one of the highest-paid Houston players -- was swapped to Oakland for, yes, prospects.



As it stands, these will be the highest-paid Houston players this season:



Bud Norris $3 million
Carlos Pena $2.9 million
Jose Veras $2 million
Wesley Wright $1.025 million



Once the Astros finish signing all of their players who aren't eligible for arbitration, their payroll will be something in the range of $25 million, which is about what Zack Greinke will make.



Houston has some young players who can get better, so it's possible the Astros will exceed the 55 victories they accumulated last season. But it's also possible Houston could lose more, given its untimely shift from the NL Central -- one of baseball's weakest divisions -- to the powerhouse AL West, with the defending champion Athletics, the Rangers and the Angels.



The Astros will have a shot at some history mired in infamy. Per Elias, they could become only the second team in history to lose at least 106 games in three consecutive seasons -- the '62-'65 Mets were the first. The record for most losses in a three-year period is 340, by the '62-'64 Mets, which is almost certainly out of reach for Houston; the Astros would have to lose 127 games, and unless you happened to be part of the Cleveland Spiders back in the day, that's just about impossible. "There's a baseline that's you really can't go below [in victories] because of the nature of baseball," said one NL official Monday night.



We saw that last year with the Astros, who collapsed in July and August before stabilizing somewhat down the stretch. After opening 22-23, Houston traded most of its veterans, and the Astros lost 72 of the next 92 games. But then Houston won 13 of the final 25 games on its schedule, taking series from the Phillies, Pirates, Cubs and Brewers. Teams have traded masses of veteran players before, but, in most cases, the clubs will keep a couple of prominent older guys. The San Diego Padres held a fire sale in '92 and '93, but hung on to Tony Gwynn and Andy Benes.



I know from feedback on Twitter that a lot of Houston fans are OK with the current strategy and are willing to wait. But the inherent risk in what the Astros are doing is that many in a generation of would-be Houston fans might be turned off, never to return. And those ex-Pirates and ex-Royals employees will tell you, from firsthand experience, that within two or three years, the patient Astros fans are going to want to see progress. There is a bill of expectation that will start to come due in 2015.



Oakland's strategy


Oakland had been stalking Jed Lowrie for months, believing in his talent, and now he becomes one more movable part on a roster of incredible flexibility. Over the past 20 years, the use of the disabled list has increased, and more and more, teams are constructing sturdy safety nets within their organizations -- and the Athletics are arguably the deepest team in the American League, even if many fans don't know the names. They have four every-day outfielders for three spots, in Yoenis Cespedes, Josh Reddick, Coco Crisp and Chris Young, and they added Lowrie with the intent of playing him regularly in the lineup while bouncing around all four spots in the infield. Tampa Bay has valued flexibility in this way in the past four or five years, placing a high value on players such as Ben Zobrist.



The Angels might have a more dynamic lineup than the Athletics, and the Rangers have more experience. But Oakland has added Lowrie, Young and John Jaso to a roster that was good enough to win the AL West last season. The lineup could look like this on a given day:



DH Crisp
C Jaso
LF Cespedes
RF Reddick
1B Brandon Moss
3B Lowrie
CF Young
2B Scott Sizemore
SS Hiroyuki Nakajima



Remember, Oakland led the majors in homers for a significant portion of last season, and the Athletics have speed and some high on-base percentage. And they are well-equipped -- maybe better than any other AL team -- to absorb injuries, which is something that was a problem for Oakland at times in the past decade.



The Athletics traded a power bat, writes Susan Slusser. Chris Carter probably is best-suited to be a designated hitter and might strike out a lot, but the guy has some big-time power.



Notables


• An interesting proposal might be made to the Rays, to allow them to look for -- but not move to -- a new home. The marriage equivalent of this would be for one spouse to charge the other for looking around.



• As Jerry Crasnick reported, Brandon Webb is retiring.

Moves, deals and decisions

1. The Mets won't give up their first-round pick to sign Michael Bourn, writes Andy Martino.

2. Max Scherzer avoided arbitration.

3. Scott Rolen has a tough decision to make, writes Paul Daugherty.

4. The battle for the second-base job in Kansas City will be interesting, says Ned Yost.

5. David Freese remains unsigned.

6. The Pirates are close to signing Jonathan Sanchez, writes Rob Biertempfel.

7. Chris Johnson is excited to have the chance to play for the Braves.
 
Two degrees of Roberto Clemente.
The 12-year-old had hit home runs before, with his first having been so memorable, in the way it smashed the back windshield of a truck parked beyond the left-field fence. But the home run that he hit in San Juan, well, this one would really stick with him.



He had been climbing up the levels of competition, playing against better and older kids, and in order to play in the San Juan, Puerto Rico, tournament, he had to make one of the first significant journeys of his life. And the fact that the tournament was named for Roberto Clemente, the longtime Pittsburgh Pirates star, really meant a lot to him. The 12-year-old already had a sense of how much Clemente had meant to others -- not only for the way he played baseball, but for how giving he was and how much he cared, which is why he was on the relief plane that crashed on New Year's Eve in 1972.



One of Clemente's closest friends had been Manny Sanguillen, the catcher with the Pirates who was 28 years old at the time Clemente died. Biographers have detailed how in the aftermath of the accident that would take Clemente's life, Sanguillen had gone into the waters where the plane had gone down and looked for signs of his friend. When he saw sharks, Sanguillen was deeply saddened.



It made sense that Sanguillen would be at the Clemente baseball tournament in 1999 to see the 12-year-old hit the home run, and Sanguillen reacted the way he always does -- with loud joy. He chortled happily about the home run, and mentioned to the 12-year-old that the pitcher would never throw him another fastball. Nope, Sanguillen said, from then on, the 12-year-old would see nothing but curveballs, words that the kid would long remember.



Years later, a young man walked up to Sanguillen and reminded the former catcher of that tournament in San Juan, and how he had hit a home run and how Sanguillen had joked about how he would see nothing but curveballs thereafter. Sanguillen didn't remember that moment, specifically, and he didn't recall the 12-year-old playing in the Roberto Clemente tournament. But by then, Sanguillen -- a beloved member of the Pirates' family -- was well aware of the young man.




His name is Andrew McCutchen.



The Pirates center fielder told this story Saturday in his hometown of Fort Meade, Fla., a town built on the backs of hard-working phosphorous miners. McCutchen hosted an event for kids at the set of fields he had played on as a kid, off the corner of 9th Street Northeast and Edgewood. In 2011, the first year of the event (named Raising The Standards) about 75 youngsters had signed up, and this year, that number climbed to just under 200. McCutchen brought along two of his Pirates teammates, Neil Walker and Pedro Alvarez, who went from field to field to work with kids whose ages ranged from 5 to perhaps 15.



McCutchen moved from group to group, talking about different fundamentals, about how to pursue a base hit, about how to break down your stride as you approach the ball, using choppy steps. He talked about how to catch a fly ball using two hands without obstructing your view.



As McCutchen watched, a boy of about 12 years old launched a throw that soared over the head of the coach, and it was easy to see in the face of the child that in this moment -- making that throw in front of the town's most famous son -- he was deeply upset. The boy ran with his head down to the back of the line, and McCutchen followed.



"Hey, that's OK -- you've got a strong arm," McCutchen said. The boy looked up. "That happened to me in a game," said McCutchen, and he told the story of how he had charged a ball and uncorked a throw so high that it had sailed over everybody. "And I had 40,000 people booing me." Then McCutchen mimicked the crowd's reaction -- "BOOOOOOO" -- and the kids within earshot laughed, including the one who made the throw.



"It's OK," McCutchen said again, and by the end of the morning, he had told the players about botching a fly ball, about overrunning a hit and seemingly every other mistake he has made on a baseball field.



As the event came to a close, McCutchen sat at a table behind home plate under the warm Florida sun and signed every item handed to him from a long line that had extended into the left field corner at the outset.

McCutchen knows baseball history well, has heard a lot about Clemente and has thought a lot about Clemente's legacy in Pittsburgh and elsewhere. When people speak about Clemente and Stan Musial, McCutchen noted, they don't really talk so much about what great ballplayers they were. What everybody talks about, McCutchen said, is what great people Clemente and Musial were, and how they impacted others.



McCutchen grew up idolizing Ken Griffey Jr., admiring his style and how he played, and because of Griffey, he wore No. 24 as he grew up. When he was called up to the big leagues, No. 24 wasn't really available; teammate Delwyn Young had first dibs on it.



McCutchen got No. 22, and he liked that, too. It felt good to wear the number that followed No. 21, the number worn by Clemente.



Moves, deals and decisions


1. Max Scherzer is headed to arbitration, writes Shawn Windsor.



2. Some departed Detroit Tigers have found few takers.



3. Aroldis Chapman doesn't have to close for the Cincinnati Reds, writes John Erardi.



4. Melky Cabrera is bypassing the WBC. The Daily News has a story today about Cabrera's website associate and an alleged scam.



5. The Seattle Mariners' payroll is at about $80 million, with spring training right around the corner.
 
What Yankees need to go right in '13.
Travis Hafner could have signed with the Tampa Bay Rays. Ultimately, he chose the Yankees, to take advantage of the opportunity they have at DH and at Yankee Stadium, which has always been a friend of left-handed sluggers.



But because Hafner has been so limited by injuries in recent years, and because he hit .228 last season, he becomes one more question mark for a team that has a whole lot of question marks.



The Yankees have made the playoffs all but one in the past 17 seasons, partly because they've had a lot of safety nets in place. That was made more possible because, well, they've had a larger budget than anybody else, and because veterans such as Raul Ibanez have liked to go to the Yankees knowing they had a chance to win.



But after a winter of financial belt-tightening, the Yankees don't have as many fall-backs as possible. They don't have as much room for error as they've had in other seasons.



Every team has linchpin parts, the strength of which determines whether it's a good or bad year. Here are eight things that must go right for the Yankees:




1. CC Sabathia needs to be healthy enough to provide a lot of innings -- and be good in those innings. He's coming off elbow surgery and looks good and ready to go. It's been eight seasons since Sabathia had a season when his ERA didn't start with a "2" or a "3," and the Yankees need that streak to continue, because as constructed, they need for the rotation to be the backbone of the team. They won't be like the '31 Yankees, a prolific, run-producing powerhouse; theywill need to win a lot of 4-3 and 5-3 games, with Sabathia, Andy Pettitte and Hiroki Kuroda -- all on the downslope of their respective careers -- leading the way.



2. Derek Jeter needs to be a good player, at age 38. He doesn't have to be as great as he was last year, when he led the majors with 216 hits, and if you gave truth serum to the Yankees' officials and staff, they probably would tell you to expect at least some regression in performance this year. Jeter is coming off a broken ankle, and last year, his batting average in balls put in play was unusually high, ranking 16th in the majors. In some metrics, Jeter already is ranked among the worst defensive shortstops. Time marches on.



The Yankees don't need him to hit .320; they can get by with him hitting in the .270 range, consistently making plays on balls hit to him. But if he's much less than that -- given the lack of pop they have at catcher and perhaps in other spots -- it would be a problem.



3. Mariano Rivera needs to be an effective closer. He's 43 years old and hasn't pitched in almost a year, and given his past greatness and his extraordinary athleticism, the Yankees need him to be at least average. If he's not, it's not clear they have a lot of fall-back, given David Robertson's struggles as closer last year.



4. Robinson Cano needs to have an MVP-caliber season. This isn't a reach, because Cano has had MVP-caliber years in recent seasons. With his free agency looming, Cano has a lot motivation to have a big year, and given the Yankees' offensive questions in other spots, they need Cano to again be the anchor.



5. Mark Teixeira needs to be an above-average run producer. As everybody knows -- Teixeira more than anybody -- he has struggled early in seasons throughout his career. But in 2013, the Yankees need him to hit from the start, because they don't have someone with the power of an Alex Rodriguez or a Nick Swisher to pick up the slack.



6. Brett Gardner needs to get back to what he was in 2010. And lest anybody forgets, he was a terrific player that season, with a 7.0 WAR and a .383 on-base percentage. Gardner is 29 years old and theoretically in the prime of his career, as he comes back from an elbow problem. If he bounces back, it would be a huge boost for this team.



7. Kevin Youkilis needs to contribute. Ichiro Suzuki probably won't expand his production much beyond what's he done in recent years, and the Yankees probably aren't going to get much production out of their catchers. They need Youkilis to get on base and provide at least some extra-base muscle. It's worth repeating that in his homes in Fenway Park and in The Cell in Chicago last year -- two parks that play well for right-handed hitters -- he was a really good player, with a .413 on-base percentage. On the road, he hit .177. Yankee Stadium is not a great park for right-handed hitters who don't flick the ball toward the right field line.



8. Michael Pineda needs to give them something -- not a lot, but something. The Yankees are downplaying expectations about when Pineda will come back, which is what they always do. There haven't been any fake proclamations about how he'll be ready to have an impact this year. But he is a monster talent, and there is cautious optimism in the organization that he'll return in the middle of the season. Because his was a shoulder injury, there's no telling how good he'll be; typically, pitchers recovering from shoulder trouble need some time to regain command. If he gives them 10 strong starts at the end of the season, that would be an enormous boost for a team playing in a division that appears to be wide-open.



Notables


• Alex Rodriguez has no plans to retire. It's not a given that there will be suspensions from the Miami situation, writes T.J. Quinn.



The University of Miami strength and conditioning coach may be cleared of wrongdoing, reports the Miami Herald.


Nelson Cruz says he didn't do anything wrong, through his lawyers.


" Matt Holliday wants two strikes and you're out for PED use.



" Pablo Sandoval's team won a title in winter ball.



" Andrelton Simmons will be the Atlanta Braves' leadoff hitter. It makes sense, given the composition of the rest of the lineup.



Jason Heyward is excited and ready to play, David O'Brien writes.

Moves, deals and decisions


1. The Pirates settled a couple of pending arbitration cases.



2. The Mets signed LaTroy Hawkins.



3. The Orioles are taking a look at Arthur Rhodes and Fernando Tatis.



4. The Red Sox signed Lyle Overbay.



5. Martin Prado signed a four-year deal for $40 million. If he stays healthy, he'll be a bargain at those numbers.



6. The Dodgers have eight starting pitchers, and Steve Dilbeck wonders whether that's a good idea.



7. Chase Headley is not discussing a long-term deal. Which makes sense.



8. A Cuban defector is drawing mild interest from the Tigers and other teams.



9. There is a chance that Scott Rolen will return to the Reds.



10. Matt Capps signed with the Indians.



11. The Twins have cleared the decks for the young players.



12. Mark Rogers is eyeing a spot in the Milwaukee rotation.
 
Union must fight to weed out cheaters.
Rick Reed became an important part of the New York Mets' rotation in 1997, posting a 2.89 ERA in his 33 appearances. But he was not wholly embraced by teammates that year, because in the spring of 1995, he had served as a replacement player during the players' strike -- a scab, in the eyes of the players' association.



I covered the Mets that year and can remember seeing Reed sitting outside of the clubhouse glancing through a newspaper while a union meeting was taking place inside. Teammates were polite with him, and some actually liked him a lot -- but he was not welcomed by the union because he was perceived as a threat to the rank and file of the brethren through his actions.



The Major League Baseball Players Association continues to face a far more significant threat from some of its own members these days -- and yet it remains to be seen whether the union will ever render the sort of harsh treatment that those outliers have earned. The players must decide if they will take a needed step forward.

The MLBPA has evolved in its stance on performance-enhancing drugs through the past 15 years, pulling its collective head out of the sand and finally bringing itself to ignore the antiquated counsel of Don Fehr and Gene Orza and accept drug testing, in order to protect the interests of the clean players and those who used only because they felt they had to keep up with the cheaters.

The first round of survey testing went into effect in 2003, and some of the clean players in the union -- call them the silent majority -- were so adamant that testing was needed that some discussed refusing to provide urine samples, so that they would be marked as positive and trigger automatic testing in 2004. There were angry words about this at the White Sox spring training site, as mentioned in this report that spring.



By 2006, the union had agreed to tougher testing, and tougher penalties, to deter would-be users.



But over the past few years, it has become increasingly evident that for some, the incentive to use vastly outweighs the risk of punishment.

Consider the case of Melky Cabrera, who came up with the New York Yankees and was evaluated by them as an extra outfielder, for the long term. After a trade, he was a fourth outfielder for the Atlanta Braves in 2010 -- and a subpar player, at that. He hit .255, with a .671 OPS, which ranked 134th among 149 qualified hitters that year. Rather than paying him something in the range of $5 million for 2011, the Braves simply released him. At age 26, Cabrera was out of a job, a fringy major leaguer.

This has been the practical impact of this decision: [Cabrera] is taking money that rightly belongs to somebody else. Somebody else should have gotten those at-bats with the Royals and the Giants; he might as well as have broken into somebody's home and lifted a pile of cash from a safe.
Somehow -- presto! -- Cabrera became one of the best outfielders in baseball. He had 201 hits for the Kansas City Royals, with 67 extra-base hits among them. Because Cabrera was a year from free agency and because K.C. really wasn't sure what he was, at that point -- a fluke? a miracle? -- the Royals moved him in a trade for Jonathan Sanchez.



Cabrera was a star, putting himself into the conversation for the National League MVP; he won the MVP at the All-Star Game. He was hitting .346 and rolling toward a huge free-agent payday -- he probably would have gotten more than the $75 million that B.J. Upton got -- when he got popped for PEDS in late August.



While Cabrera didn't get the $90 million deal that he might have if not for his suspension, he still got a two-year, $18 million contract from the Toronto Blue Jays. Which means that even if you account for the $2 million or so he lost through his 2012 suspension, Cabrera will make something in the range of $23 million for his play from 2011-2014.



Twenty-three million dollars. Oh, sure, he might have gotten more if he hadn't been suspended, but … twenty-three million dollars.



We can reasonably speculate that Cabrera began using as early as 2011, given his sudden spike in performance, and given his established history of performance-enhancing drugs.



Cabrera made a choice to break the rules established by a union that was concerned about maintaining a level playing field among its brethren. Cabrera made a choice to go against those rules, and to cheat in competition against other union members.



This has been the practical impact of the decision: He is taking money that rightly belongs to somebody else. Somebody else should have gotten those at-bats with the Royals and Giants; he might as well as have broken into somebody's home and lifted a pile of cash from a safe. Pitchers whom he got hits against were diminished by his performance, which was fueled with at least one kind of banned substance.



The Giants shunned Cabrera after his suspension; they were offended by his actions, and by the way he sneaked out before speaking to the whole team. But for some reason, the union has never treated the PED guys with anything close to the same sort of disdain that they had for replacement players such as Rick Reed -- even though the PED guys pose a much greater threat.



Under the current rules, Cabrera still has plenty of room to cheat. He got a 50-game suspension for his offense last summer, and if he tested positive again this year or next, he'd get a 100-game suspension. But think about this: Even if he gets nailed a second time, he'd still make about $12 million of the $18 million on his deal. Twelve million dollars.



The players' attitude toward the PED issue has shifted a whole lot since the days of Fehr and Orza, and under the current leadership of Michael Weiner, they may have more practical influence than they have had since the first days of Marvin Miller. MLBPA leaders such as Craig Breslow, Daniel Bard and Chris Capuano and others can affect change.



The players need to think about the legacy of their generation and consider the shadows cast over the generations that preceded theirs in the 1980s and 1990s. Stars such as Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire and Jeff Bagwell are being discredited, fairly or unfairly, and the accomplishments of all of the players -- either because of their actions, or inaction -- have come into question. History shows that a passive response by the players on this issue hurts everybody in the union.



Based on conversations with players, agents and baseball officials, I'd bet that if they were to poll players privately, the majority would want to toughen the penalties and greatly reduce the incentive for cheaters. The union almost certainly would never agree to a punishment that included voided contracts for suspended players, out of concern for the occasional case of a false positive.



But the union can, in good conscience, reduce one of the get-out-of-jail-free cards. It should consider changing the rules to include only two strikes: A one-year suspension for a first positive test and a lifetime ban for a second positive test.



One agent noted Tuesday evening that it's the players' instinct to protect other players. They generally view themselves as a fraternity, and it's not their reflex to ostracize their brethren.



But it would be fully appropriate for them to treat the PED users with as least much anger as they did the replacement players. They are taking jobs from other players; they are stealing money.



And if the union ever stops being devoted to the idea of fighting for a level playing field, in the interests of the clean players, well, then they might as well open it up and let everyone take as many PEDs as they see fit. Because right now, players have incentive to slip through the weaknesses in the program -- and they're making millions, on the backs of their brethren, by doing so.



More PED fallout


I can remember the first time I saw Alex Rodriguez. It was the summer of 1993, and I was covering the San Diego Padres for the San Diego Union-Tribune. Tony Gwynn and other San Diego hitters had come out for early batting practice, and in the midst of that, a tall, lanky teenager walked down an aisle in the seats behind the first-base dugout. Gwynn went over, shook hands and chatted with Rodriguez, who had just been drafted by the Mariners and was in the midst of contentious negotiations. Gwynn offered him advice, over an hour-long conversation, on how to handle his career.

I think about what Rodriguez was at that moment: One of the most gifted young talents in baseball history, with his whole career ahead of him, with so much potential.



How sad that his career has played out in the way that it has.



It's sad that it's coming out, says Matt Cain.



From Alex Rodriguez, there are new denials, and questions about what's next, writes Tyler Kepner.



Tyler notes that the Yankees' dream scenario would be if Rodriguez simply retired because of his significant hip problems, and then the team could collect insurance.



If the Yankees have some leverage in this situation -- some known to the public and media, and maybe some unknown -- I'd bet they'd use it. The Yankees hope this gives them an exit out of the contract, writes Joel Sherman.



The Yankees and Major League Baseball want no part of Rodriguez, writes Bill Madden. Rodriguez's legacy will be as an all-time cheater.



Gio Gonzalez issued a statement, as Amanda Comak writes.



With Nelson Cruz under investigation, the Rangers' outfield plans may have to change.



The Rangers decided not to make another impact move this winter, despite the availability of free agent Michael Bourn. You do wonder if this will change that stance.



Mary Pilon and Gina Kolata have more on one of the substances noted in the notebooks.



One of the most significant threads in Tuesday's Miami New Times report is the alleged connection to the University of Miami strength coach. Major League Baseball does not have the power to investigate the coach, beyond making the request -- but it will be interesting to see if federal or state authorities decide to investigate this employee of a college with subpoena power, and the threat of prosecution.



The University of Miami released a statement.



Moves, deals and decisions


1. A former Twins reliever signed with the Pirates.



2. Chad Durbin has come full circle, writes Matt Gelb.



3. Brian Schneider has decided to retire after 18 years.



4. Andy Pettitte became the latest player to skip the WBC.



5. Scott Atchison signed with the Mets.



6. The White Sox outrighted a pitcher to Triple-A.



7. The Marlins are expecting a lot of competition this spring.



8. The Mariners are close to signing Kelly Shoppach.



9. The Padres signed some pitchers.



10. Albert Pujols says he wants to be in the WBC, but it's not likely.



11. The Brewers re-signed Alex Gonzalez.
 
Astros' return for Lowrie not quite enough.
In acquiring Jed Lowrie from the Houston Astros in a five-player deal, the Oakland Athletics get a starting shortstop at reasonable financial cost -- just $2.4 million for this year -- while the Astros add three young players with some value but no star potential.



The A's have a lot of flexibility in how they use Lowrie, who can play second, short, or third, with second his ideal position. Coincidentally, that's a giant black hole for Oakland right now, since their second basemen hit an aggregate .228/.303/.316 last year, which Baseball Reference says is most similar to the performance of a ferret on Xanax.

They could also push Lowrie to third -- where his arm will be a little short but where his hands and lateral agility are more than sufficient -- and then leave second base open for Grant Green to win if he performs well this March, leaving Josh Donaldson on the bench. Either way, Lowrie's a solid pickup for them -- worth maybe two wins if he plays half a season -- and a great one if he stays healthy for the whole year, which is funny to write because he never does.



Right-hander Fernando Rodriguez is the other player Oakland acquired, and he has been below replacement level over 123 major-league innings, with a plus fastball and nothing else of note, although Oakland's ballpark and defense can turn a lot of seemingly below-average pitchers into useful assets.



For Houston, it's a good return in terms of value but probably won't produce any All-Star appearances. Chris Carter is a Big Guy, with huge raw power and a decent idea at the plate, but enough length in his swing that he's always going to struggle with contact. In an ideal world, he's a first baseman, but with Jonathan Singleton not that far off, the Astros might put Carter at DH or in left field, where he's passable -- and the left field area at Minute Maid is probably one of the easiest to handle in the majors. Also, he's the best hitter in the Astros' lineup right now.



Right-hander Brad Peacock came to the A's in the Gio Gonzalez trade last winter, looking primed for a spot in Oakland's bullpen, but spent the year in Triple-A Sacramento's rotation with a 6.01 ERA thanks to a high walk rate and an extreme fly ball tendency. He's less than six feet tall and gets no plane at all on his fastball, which sits in the low 90s when he starts and can touch 96 when he's relieving; his secondary stuff is fringy, with a downer curveball that's not that sharp, and a changeup that doesn't have great action. The Astros might let him strut for them as a starter this year, but his ideal role is in the pen, where he can mitigate that homer-rific tendency with better velocity.



The wild card for Houston is Max Stassi, whom Oakland took in the fourth round in 2009 and signed for a first-round bonus, only to have Stassi hurt his shoulder and miss most of 2011 after surgery. The surgery helped his throwing and his power, which was his best attribute as a hitter when he was an amateur. He was only healthy enough to play 97 games in 2012, including the Arizona Fall League, but should be at 100 percent for 2013 and will probably spend the year in Double-A at age 22.



He could still end up a solid-average everyday catcher, good enough on defense, with 20-homer power and lines in the .250/.330/.440 range -- maybe a little better with Houston's friendliness to right-handed power hitters. He didn't make my ranking of Oakland's top 10 prospects due to his injury history, and that's why he's the third guy in this deal, but there's at least the potential for an everyday guy at a position every club needs if his shoulder holds up.



The Astros acquired Lowrie and Kyle Weiland from the Red Sox in 2011 for reliever Mark Melancon, meaning they turned Melancon into one year of Lowrie plus these three young players, which is the kind of asset management that led the Astros to jump from the bottom five to the top five in my farm system rankings in just one calendar year.



That said, could they have gotten a better prospect -- someone who had real star potential -- had they dealt Lowrie earlier in the offseason to a team looking for help at second or third, like the Yankees, Dodgers, Cardinals, Phillies or Diamondbacks? Lowrie's inability to play a full season is somewhat offset by his low cost, and the Astros have had so few chances to convert veterans into impact guys -- instead taking quantity wherever they could -- that this return, while very solid, feels just a little disappointing.
 
Ranking the farm systems.
To kick off my look at the best prospects in the minor leagues this week, I've ranked all 30 MLB farm systems from top to bottom, considering only the players who are currently in their systems and who have not yet exhausted their rookie of the year eligibility. (I use the same criterion for the individual player rankings that will be posted over the next three days.)



I've done these rankings for the past few years, and I was surprised at how few farm systems there were this year that had both impact and depth, fewer than in any of the previous years in which I've gone through this exercise. Some of that reflects all of the major promotions that took place in 2012, but we've also hit a slightly down period in the cycle of farm system quality.




1. St. Louis Cardinals



The Cardinals have drafted well, fared well in Latin America, traded well and developed well over the past five years, fulfilling the main goals of a farm system: Provide talent for the major league roster, and provide currency for trades to do the same.



St. Louis has shown a willingness to use young players in minor roles, with some of them graduating to full-time roles, a process I think will be easier under current manager Mike Matheny -- and it's a good thing, as the system is bursting with players who look like they'll be ready for the majors in the next year and who project as average regulars or more.



There at least five guys in the Cardinals' system -- if we include Tyrell Jenkins, who's coming off a shoulder injury -- who project as mid-rotation starters or better. Two of them -- Shelby Miller and Trevor Rosenthal -- are ready now. They've got the minors' best pure offensive prospect in Oscar Taveras, their usual assortment of unheralded relief prospects and plenty of depth in the type of bat-first college position prospects they've had success with over the past few years, a strategy that helped yield guys like Allen Craig and Matt Carpenter.



They're in extremely good position to keep the major league club in contention for another five years without forcing them to ratchet up the payroll, and should produce a few rookie of the year candidates in that period, as well.




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2. Minnesota Twins



The Twins placed more players on my top 100 (seven) than any other team, only one of whom was initially signed by another organization, and they added a former top-100 guy, Trevor May, in a trade this offseason. Their system is particularly strong in center field, enough that they're working on converting Eddie Rosario to second base, and has more power arms with a chance to start than it has at any point in the past decade.



The major league team is down, and isn't going to turn it all around in a year, but there's a lot of talent coming around which the Twins can build another contender.




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3. Tampa Bay Rays


The Rays had some setbacks among their highest-profile prospects this past year, but added a top-10 prospect in Wil Myers, a top-100 prospect in Jake Odorizzi and a former top-100 prospect in Mike Montgomery in the James Shields trade. They're deepest in power arms, although many of them are a grade or two of command below where they'll need to be to profile as starters, and right now their next impact bat after Myers would be in low Class A or short-season ball.




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4. Houston Astros


The Astros had the second most money to spend in last June's draft and used it extremely wisely, landing the second player on my draft board and four other players off my top 60, while also adding some lower-ceiling talent through trades of the few valuable assets the new front office inherited. Their top two picks from 2010, Delino DeShields Jr. and Mike Foltynewicz, bounced back from disappointing first years to re-establish their prospect value, as well.




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5. Chicago Cubs


The Cubs' rebuilding process isn't much further along than the Twins' or the Astros' in terms of time, but they spent extravagantly in the international market before the new CBA's restrictions went into effect last summer, landing the Cuban toolshed Jorge Soler (and the Cuban flop Gerardo Concepcion, but we're not going to talk about him), then later using their international pool money on the Dominican pitcher with an electric arm currently known as Juan Carlos Paniagua, who has gone through more names than the thief known as Parker. The Cubs also scored big in last year's draft, addressing the system's lack of starting pitching candidates while also bulking up its depth in outfield prospects.




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6. San Diego Padres


My top system from last year graduated several players to the majors, saw a few significant injuries to top pitching prospects but then added a ton of high school pitching talent through a very strong draft. The system's weakness is in near-ready talent, where only infielder Jedd Gyorko and right-hander Casey Kelly are likely to be significant contributors this year, with lefty Robbie Erlin a possible option for the back of the rotation.




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7. Pittsburgh Pirates


Their top two pitching prospects rival any club's at this point, with Gerrit Cole likely to reach the majors this year and Jameson Taillon probably a year behind, while their low Class A West Virginia roster was one of the strongest teams for prospects, including up-the-middle bats, last spring. The knee injury that wiped out nearly all of 2011 bonus baby Josh Bell's season after his awful (tiny-sample) start hurts, as he needed those repetitions at the plate and in the field.




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8. Seattle Mariners


The Mariners still have that raft of starting pitching prospects, with Victor Sanchez and Brandon Maurer stepping up as James Paxton took a step back. Their first pick in the draft, Mike Zunino, might be the first position player from that draft class to reach the majors.




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9. Texas Rangers


They have Jurickson Profar, arguably the top prospect in baseball, three guys in the back half of the top 100, and as much talent from their short-season rosters last year as any organization in baseball, primarily on the position-player side. Their international spending spree had to end under the new CBA, but many of the fruits of those efforts are just now reaching full-season leagues, setting the Rangers up well to maintain their contender status for several more years.




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10. New York Yankees


It's a top-heavy system, but the group of position players who started in low Class A Charleston last year, some of whom finished in high-A Tampa, could produce as many as three above-average or better regulars plus several other guys who'll have big league value. They'd rank even higher had they not lost two major starting pitching prospects to season-long injuries, with one, Manny Banuelos, probably out now until 2014.




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11. Kansas City Royals


The Royals aren't well represented on my top 100 (although two prospects they just traded are on it), but they've got more sleeper/breakout candidates than any other organization. I could go more than 10 deep and still make good arguments for those prospects to jump on to the list next year, guys like Jorge Bonifacio, Adalberto Mondesi, Miguel Almonte and Kenny Diekroeger. I didn't like the trade for James Shields, but I still really like the overall direction of things in Kansas City when you look from top to bottom.




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12. Cincinnati Reds


They have this really fast guy you may have heard of, and actually saw some strong debuts for 2012 draft guys and have three starting pitching prospects already marching up through full-season ball, one of whom, Tony Cingrani, got a cup of coffee in September.




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13. Baltimore Orioles


Dylan Bundy emerged as the minors' best pitching prospect in 2012, while their first pick from last year's draft, Kevin Gausman, was one of the hottest names in Florida instructional league in September. They'd rank higher had Manny Machado not lost his rookie eligibility in September.




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14. New York Mets


The R.A. Dickey trade really boosted their system, and several Latin American arms had strong years in 2012 to bolster the system's total value. First-rounder Gavin Cecchini could move quickly for a prep kid, as he's pretty advanced for a teenager and doesn't have much blocking him at shortstop.




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15. Arizona Diamondbacks


Dealing Trevor Bauer for 50 cents on the dollar didn't help, nor did failing to get any of Atlanta's top six prospects in the Justin Upton trade, but they're still very deep in arms and now oddly deep in shortstops who can field but don't get on base. Infielder Andrew Velazquez and right-hander Ben Eckels, their seventh- and 11th-rounders from last year's draft, both came out strong in rookie ball and could be minor steals, yet neither sniffed the team's top 10.




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16. Miami Marlins


An impact bat (Christian Yelich), an impact arm (Jose Fernandez), a couple of above-average guys from Toronto (Justin Nicolino and Jake Marisnick), two quick-moving lefties (Andrew Heaney and Adam Conley) from the past two drafts … this is the best system that Florida taxpayers' money could buy!




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17. Boston Red Sox


A lot went right on the farm for Boston this year, with Xander Bogaerts looking like he can stay at shortstop, Jackie Bradley Jr. lighting everyone up with his plate discipline and Matt Barnes and Henry Owens posting very strong full-season debuts. The system's real shortage is in big league ready talent, with right-hander Allen Webster probably the closest.




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18. Los Angeles Dodgers


They are a little underrepresented in the top 100, but with a lot of guys who'd either be in the next 50 or who could jump into the top 50 next year. That group is led by Yasiel Puig, who barely played in 2013 before surgery to address a staph infection kept him out of the Arizona Fall League.




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19. Cleveland Indians


With Francisco Lindor and Dorssys Paulino, they have some of the best shortstop depth of any organization in baseball right now. They could be primed for a big leap if any of the young pitching they've drafted the past two years comes through in 2013.




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20. Atlanta Braves


They actually didn't give up that much in the Upton trade, but they've drafted so poorly the past few years that it's really hurt the system. The 2010 draft probably won't produce much of anything besides Andrelton Simmons (no longer eligible for the list), 2011 looks just slightly better right now and 2009 is likely to end up producing Mike Minor and nothing else. They're not lower because they've made good trades and found value in non-traditional ways, but you can't get this little value from the draft for long without feeling it.




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21. Washington Nationals


I love their top five prospects. There's a bottomless crevasse somewhere not far after that.




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22. Oakland Athletics


One huge impact guy (Addison Russell), then a ton of depth guys who look like average regulars or mid-rotation starters. Their Arizona Rookie League club was stacked, though, which puts them in position to make a big move up if those guys carry it forward to low-A next year.




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23. Colorado Rockies


They had setbacks with several major prospects this year due to injury, poor performance or other factors, although first-rounder David Dahl obliterated the rookie-level Pioneer League as one of its youngest regulars, and the team even saw signs of life from 2009 first-rounder Tyler Matzek, whose stuff has returned and who started throwing strikes again at the end of the season, including the playoffs. I was never a huge Tyler Anderson guy out of the draft, but I think he could move quickly this year and get to the majors faster than the 2012 performance would lead you to believe.




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24. Toronto Blue Jays


A top-10 system before the big offseason trades, probably top five, but Alex Anthopoulos pushed his chips to the center of the table, stood up and said "Boo-yah!" … but in the politest way possible.




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25. Detroit Tigers


The Tigers have given up a lot of high draft picks over the past few years to sign free agents, understandable given how well the major league team has fared but not a great way to keep a farm system afloat, especially since the new CBA limits how much the team can spend. They might see their top three prospects (Nick Castellanos, Avisail Garcia and Bruce Rondon) all contribute in the majors this year, though, and would rank near the top of systems if we were going just off potential 2013 impact.




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26. San Francisco Giants


Several good starting pitching prospects highlight a system that's very light on bats right now. After closer Heath Hembree, the Giants don't have much that's likely to help the major league team in 2013. I could see some of their second-tier arms becoming useful trade chips for them to add a piece in July, though, so they're not without assets, just without many potential stars.




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27. Philadelphia Phillies


Their highest-ranked prospect on my top 100 (no team was shut out entirely) is the lowest of any team's highest-ranked prospect. They do, however, have a number of intriguing, high-risk guys from low-A on down, especially on the pitching side.




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28. Chicago White Sox


The system is improving, helped by a draft where the team opened up and looked more at prep players up top, and progress from a couple of arms already in the system, including two less-heralded pitchers from the 2011 draft (Erik Johnson and Scott Snodgress).




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29. Milwaukee Brewers


This system has one top-100 prospect and a lot of back-end starters or probable relievers. I didn't love their draft in 2012 despite the extra picks, as they didn't manipulate their money to get any players who fell for signability reasons. They took only one player, second-rounder Tyrone Taylor, who has significant upside to become an above-average or better regular.




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30. Los Angeles Angels


When you don't pick until the third round and then trade three prospects for Zack Greinke, this is something of an inevitable consequence. They did place one player on the top 100 and have a lot of guys who project as big leaguers, but more as role players than everyday guys or better. First baseman C.J. Cron didn't make my top 100, but if he can stay healthy and remain at first base, he could break into impact status.
 
PED mess a tough spot for Rizzo, Daniels.
There is nothing worse for a general manager than to be blindsided by allegations of impropriety by one of your players. True or false, the news causes an immediate maelstrom of controversy, uncertainty and turmoil.

And that’s exactly what happened to Texas Rangers GM Jon Daniels and Washington Nationals GM Mike Rizzo after the Miami New Times reported Wednesday that Nationals left-hander Gio Gonzalez and Rangers right fielder Nelson Cruz were linked to a company that allegedly produced performance-enhancing drugs. Neither Gonzalez nor Cruz had ever been linked to PEDs before.
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Former MLB general manager and ESPN Insider Jim Bowden offers insight into the Nelson Cruz PED allegations and discusses possible Rangers moves with Ben and Skin.

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It’s an awkward situation for a general manager. Obviously, neither GM knew about this report or whether it was actually true or false. If true, however, the GMs will have to deal with the ramifications from a team perspective, as well as the potential negative public relations that normally follow.

Gonzalez saved Rizzo from having to comment publicly by issuing a full denial via Twitter, and Rizzo subsequently made the best possible PR move and said nothing about it. He and his club had no knowledge of the report and will support Gonzalez until all the facts are gathered. This could take weeks or months, so the resolution -- and any disciplinary action -- might not come until spring training. And rest assured, the issue will become a distraction during camp as the team becomes inundated with media requests for Gonzalez.

[+] Enlarge

Steven Bisig/USA TODAY Sports
We won't know Nelson Cruz's fate for a while.
Meanwhile, Cruz and the Rangers took the exact opposite approach. Cruz has yet to comment on the allegations, while the Rangers issued an organizational statement that read:

“The Texas Rangers were contacted last week by Miami New Times regarding the story posted this morning. At that time, the Rangers contacted Major League Baseball on that inquiry. The team has no further comment.”

Until there is an arrest made, an admission of guilt or a positive drug test, it will be extremely difficult and unlikely that the commissioner’s office would suspend any of these players in the short term. (T.J. Quinn explains in further detail here.)

Thus, it’s still premature to think that the report alone will force Texas or Washington to think about alternatives or options to replace Cruz and Gonzalez.

An immediate thought shortly after the news broke was whether Daniels and the Rangers would pursue free-agent outfielder Michael Bourn. But according to a Rangers source, that is unlikely. They are committed to giving Leonys Martin and Craig Gentry the opportunity to compete for playing time in center field. Martin is a Cuban outfielder whom the Rangers guaranteed $20.5 million in 2011. He hit .359/.422/.610 last season at Triple-A Round Rock with 18 doubles, 12 home runs and 42 RBIs.

If Cruz is suspended at some point during the season, some combination of Mike Olt, Mitch Moreland and Lance Berkman would end up sharing most of the time in right field, first base and DH. Of course, that would change if the Miami Marlins decided they liked a prospect package for Giancarlo Stanton, an idea the Marlins front office has said “will not happen.”

Thing is, the Rangers needed to add power even before the news on Cruz came out. After losing both Josh Hamilton and Mike Napoli to free agency and failing to acquire Justin Upton from the Arizona Diamondbacks, it’s pretty obvious that if they come across the opportunity to acquire another power hitter, they will. The trade market does not have a lot of inventory right now, not for corner outfielders with power. However, by June or July, it’s highly likely the Rangers could add veteran power with players such as Minnesota Twins outfielder Josh Willingham, the Diamondbacks’ Jason Kubel or Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Garrett Jones.


Mark J. Rebilas/US Presswire
If Nelson Cruz is eventually suspended during the season, Jason Kubel could be an option come July.
Likewise, the Nationals and Rizzo aren’t going to react to this report by going out and trying to trade for another starting pitcher in case Gonzalez is suspended. They’ll prepare for the season as they always do -- prepare for injuries to a starting rotation, which from a team-building perspective is essentially the same as a suspension.

Therefore, they will monitor the rehab of free-agent pitcher Javier Vazquez, who had knee surgery Wednesday. If all goes well, they’ll sign him, but that shouldn’t be mistaken as the team thinking they must make a move because of Gonzalez’s predicament. It will be business as usual. If they add a starter via trade or free agency, in all likelihood they would have any way.

So where does that leave Rizzo and Daniels heading into Opening Day? The most likely scenario is that Nelson Cruz will still be in right field for the Rangers and Gonzalez will start either the first or second game of the regular season for the Nationals. Innocent until proven guilty is how America is built and we should view Gonzalez and Cruz in this light.

Seasoned general managers such as Rizzo and Daniels are not going to spend their days wringing their hands to find replacements in trades or free agency just in case Cruz or Gonzalez is suspended. Rather, they’ll probably spend it communicating directly with their players and mainge sure the players assure them of their innocence, communicating with and supporting the commissioner’s office’s investigation and drug policy and preparing for the public relations distraction that will escalate when they arrive at their spring training homes in Florida and Arizona in approximately two weeks.
 
Encouraging for the Twins and M's. :hat

Still concerned with the Mariners finding a bad though...Their farm is all pitching and no one already in the bigs wants to come to Seattle. :lol :{
 
I doubt they will either unless the park shows a huge step towards not suppressing power this year. It's either Zunino becomes Piazza or some of that pitching goes for Stanton or Cano or Ellsbury or someone like that.

Twins problem has and always will be internal when it comes to developing players, especially pitchers. Shoot themselves in the foot every year.
 
ST. LOUIS -- Chris Carpenter is unlikely to pitch for the St. Louis Cardinals this season, and his career may be over because of a nerve injury that kept him out most of last year.

Carpenter has renewed numbness and some bruising in his right shoulder and hand after throwing off a mound before spring training, general manager John Mozeliak said Tuesday. Carpenter will get an additional medical evaluation and isn't officially retiring, but Mozeliak said the Cardinals are moving on without him.


SweetSpot: Saluting An Ace Carpenter
David Schoenfield tips his cap to Chris Carpenter, one of the most memorable -- and one of the best -- pitchers of the past decade. SweetSpot

"He's leaving the door slightly open, but it's unlikely," Mozeliak said of Carpenter's return. "After speaking with him on the phone, you certainly get a sense that he's more concerned about life after baseball."

Manager Mike Matheny called the news "a kick in the gut."

Carpenter had surgery in July for a nerve injury that first occurred in spring training 2012. He returned to pitch three games in the regular season, going 1-2 down the stretch, and started three games in the postseason. He beat Washington in the divisional series but was 0-2 in the NL Championship Series against eventual World Series winner San Francisco.

It marks the third straight season the Cardinals have lost a key member of the rotation before the start of the season. Adam Wainwright had Tommy John surgery after hurting his elbow in 2011 and missed the entire season.

Former Cardinals teammate Albert Pujols tweeted, "Sad to hear the news of #ChrisCarpenter and hoping for a quick recovery. Sending prayers to one of the toughest men in baseball."


Carpenter

Carpenter, 37, did not join Mozeliak and Matheny at the news conference. Mozeliak said the emotions are still too raw for the pitcher. Carpenter will seek additional medical evaluation at Mercy Hospital in St. Louis, but Mozeliak said attention now turns to filling the void left by not only a top-of-the-rotation pitcher but also an unquestioned clubhouse leader.

"There are a lot of young arms ready to contribute, and now they're going to get that opportunity," Mozeliak said.

He declined to speculate on whether the team would pursue Kyle Lohse, who was 16-3 with a 2.86 ERA in 211 innings for St. Louis last season but remains unsigned as a free agent.

Carpenter, who is 144-94 for his career and 10-4 with a 3.00 ERA in 18 postseason starts, is considered one of the best clutch pitchers in Cardinals history. He pitched eight shutout innings to win Game 3 of the 2006 World Series against Detroit, a series St. Louis won in five games. And he was a postseason standout in the improbable 2011 World Series run, beating Roy Halladay 1-0 in a memorable Game 5 of the NL Division Series at Philadelphia, and beating Texas in Game 7 of the World Series.

"When he was healthy, he was one of the best," Mozeliak said. "He was blessed with talent, but he also worked extremely hard. When I think back over the last 10 to 15 years here in St. Louis, he was one of those guys who just helped create the model of success. He left nothing to chance."

Matheny, a former catcher who was Carpenter's teammate and manager, agreed.

"I don't know if I've ever witnessed a better competitor than Chris, and also leader," Matheny said.

Carpenter's contract calls for a $12.5 million salary this year, of which $2 million is deferred without interest and is to be paid in $200,000 installments each July 1 from 2017 to 2026.

As recently as the Cardinals' annual Winter Warm-up in mid-January, Carpenter was saying he was healthy and eager to pitch in 2013. Mozeliak said Carpenter tried throwing from a mound perhaps three times before calling him on Friday, emotionally saying he didn't think he could pitch.

"He felt to some degree he was letting us down," Mozeliak said. "I assured him nothing was further from the truth."

Carpenter's career -- six seasons in Toronto, nine in St. Louis -- has been marred by various injuries to his shoulder, elbow and a nerve. He missed most of 2002, all of 2003, most of 2007 and most of 2008, in addition to all but three starts in 2012.

The nerve injury last season seemed career-threatening and surgery included removing a rib. Carpenter made an improbable return that helped St. Louis squeeze into the playoffs with the final wild-card spot. His velocity was down and stuff not as sharp, but he was hopeful for a full recovery by 2013.

The Cardinals also have uncertainty about left-hander Jaime Garcia, who was 7-7 with a 3.92 ERA last season but was limited to just 20 starts because of shoulder fatigue. He was lost for the rest of the postseason after injuring his left shoulder in Game 2 against the Nationals.

Wainwright, Jake Westbrook and Lance Lynn are expected to be in the rotation. Younger pitchers Joe Kelly, Trevor Rosenthal and Shelby Miller will compete for a spot.

"As we head into spring now there's certainly a void there, but there's also an opportunity," Matheny said. "We have to have some other guys step up."

Information from The Associated Press was used in this report.
Click to expand...
 
Can't wait to sitting at AT&T Park/Coliseum on a beautiful Saturday/Sunday Game :hat April can't get here soon enough
 
That's the life of a big league pitcher, I know Brandon Webb has been out since 2009, but damn talk about a shooting star. You blinked and you missed it.
 
Agree with the Twins developing issues... that must improve or "Keith Law's Rankings" will mean absolutely nothing. But it's encouraging.
 
Oakland trading for Jed Lowrie was a great move. He's a solid player.

- also can someone get Keith Law's top 100 prospects? He just released it today
 
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