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Twins do very well in Span trade.
The Washington Nationals didn't get much production from their non-wunderkind outfielders in 2012, so adding Denard Span and sliding Bryce Harper to right makes the team better by a couple of wins in 2013. The price they paid was heavy, though, with the Minnesota Twins receiving Alex Meyer the kind of hard-throwing, high-upside arm their system lacks.
Span is a solid everyday player who has made himself into an above-average defender in center, a position where his modest bat will play even though he's not particularly patient and has well below-average power. Span's deal pays him a very reasonable $10.25 million total over the next two seasons, with a $9 million option for 2015, so the Nats get three years of control at affordable prices, and can walk away from Span right at the point where he's likely to start to see his value slip. In the interim, however, he gives them an average regular in center whose value will fluctuate with his BABIP.
He has quick wrists and has a handsy swing, putting the ball in play at a very high rate and using the whole field but rarely driving the ball for power. He's a plus runner who gains a few hits each year from his speed and has been worth a few extra runs a year on the bases as well. Yet even in his two highest-BABIP seasons, he's peaked at 4 wins above replacement (per FanGraphs), and the ups and downs of his batting average on balls in play can shave more than a win off that figure. That's still a good fit for a Nats team that lacked a true centerfielder.
For that, however, they gave up a very good pitching prospect in Meyer, who, if he stays healthy, could easily make the Nats regret this deal in the long run. Meyer is generally tabbed as a future reliever because he's primarily a two-pitch guy who, at 6-foot-7, has had trouble keeping his mechanics together, and comes from a slot below three-quarters. I can see all of those concerns and do think there's a chance Meyer ends up in relief, but I'm also somewhat optimistic that he can remain a starter -- and if he does, he'll likely be a very good one, pitching near the top of a rotation.
Meyer has touched 99 and can work at 92-97 even as a starter, with good life on the pitch due to his low slot, although his ground ball rates in pro ball have been just okay. His slider is filthy, a bona fide out pitch whether he starts or closes in the majors, while his changeup has improved to the point where it's probably a future-average pitch. (He hasn't shown any kind of platoon split so far in the minors anyway.) There's a good enough chance that he starts that I'd hate to give him up for three years of a league-average centerfielder unless my club was an immediate contender -- which the Nats are. For the Twins, this gives them the potential frontline starter they didn't see in the 2012 draft class, when they passed on Kevin Gausman and Mark Appel in favor of very high-upside prep center fielder Byron Buxton. Pair Meyer with the resurgent Kyle Gibson, who showed a plus mid-80s slider in the Arizona Fall League, and the Twins' future pitching situation looks a lot more promising.
This does leave Washington's system fairly short on the pitching side at the moment. The Nats' best remaining starting pitching prospect, Luc Giolito, is out until next summer after Tommy John surgery, and while he projects as a potential No. 1 or No. 2 starter, he's probably five years away from major-league impact. Their next-best starter prospect, lefty Sammy Solis, is just coming back from the same operation. Nate Karns is the sleeper, with a plus fastball/curveball combo and a potentially plus changeup, but he's yet to reach Double-A at age 24. They're going to live or die with the pitching already on the big club, or whatever they can add through free agency, because they don't have much arriving soon and their tradeable assets are dwindling.
One other possible beneficiary of this deal is the Colorado Rockies, should they choose to move Dexter Fowler, a talented, athletic center fielder who doesn't have Span's speed or defensive value but has more offensive potential, especially in terms of power. The Rockies' direction isn't entirely clear to me, but Fowler's youth and affordability should net them a higher return than the strong one the Twins just got for Span.
Span is a solid everyday player who has made himself into an above-average defender in center, a position where his modest bat will play even though he's not particularly patient and has well below-average power. Span's deal pays him a very reasonable $10.25 million total over the next two seasons, with a $9 million option for 2015, so the Nats get three years of control at affordable prices, and can walk away from Span right at the point where he's likely to start to see his value slip. In the interim, however, he gives them an average regular in center whose value will fluctuate with his BABIP.
He has quick wrists and has a handsy swing, putting the ball in play at a very high rate and using the whole field but rarely driving the ball for power. He's a plus runner who gains a few hits each year from his speed and has been worth a few extra runs a year on the bases as well. Yet even in his two highest-BABIP seasons, he's peaked at 4 wins above replacement (per FanGraphs), and the ups and downs of his batting average on balls in play can shave more than a win off that figure. That's still a good fit for a Nats team that lacked a true centerfielder.
For that, however, they gave up a very good pitching prospect in Meyer, who, if he stays healthy, could easily make the Nats regret this deal in the long run. Meyer is generally tabbed as a future reliever because he's primarily a two-pitch guy who, at 6-foot-7, has had trouble keeping his mechanics together, and comes from a slot below three-quarters. I can see all of those concerns and do think there's a chance Meyer ends up in relief, but I'm also somewhat optimistic that he can remain a starter -- and if he does, he'll likely be a very good one, pitching near the top of a rotation.
Meyer has touched 99 and can work at 92-97 even as a starter, with good life on the pitch due to his low slot, although his ground ball rates in pro ball have been just okay. His slider is filthy, a bona fide out pitch whether he starts or closes in the majors, while his changeup has improved to the point where it's probably a future-average pitch. (He hasn't shown any kind of platoon split so far in the minors anyway.) There's a good enough chance that he starts that I'd hate to give him up for three years of a league-average centerfielder unless my club was an immediate contender -- which the Nats are. For the Twins, this gives them the potential frontline starter they didn't see in the 2012 draft class, when they passed on Kevin Gausman and Mark Appel in favor of very high-upside prep center fielder Byron Buxton. Pair Meyer with the resurgent Kyle Gibson, who showed a plus mid-80s slider in the Arizona Fall League, and the Twins' future pitching situation looks a lot more promising.
This does leave Washington's system fairly short on the pitching side at the moment. The Nats' best remaining starting pitching prospect, Luc Giolito, is out until next summer after Tommy John surgery, and while he projects as a potential No. 1 or No. 2 starter, he's probably five years away from major-league impact. Their next-best starter prospect, lefty Sammy Solis, is just coming back from the same operation. Nate Karns is the sleeper, with a plus fastball/curveball combo and a potentially plus changeup, but he's yet to reach Double-A at age 24. They're going to live or die with the pitching already on the big club, or whatever they can add through free agency, because they don't have much arriving soon and their tradeable assets are dwindling.
One other possible beneficiary of this deal is the Colorado Rockies, should they choose to move Dexter Fowler, a talented, athletic center fielder who doesn't have Span's speed or defensive value but has more offensive potential, especially in terms of power. The Rockies' direction isn't entirely clear to me, but Fowler's youth and affordability should net them a higher return than the strong one the Twins just got for Span.
- Aug 2, 2008
- 37,562
- 13,058
Yankees got outbid for Russell
Part of me wanted to keep Russell because he has some pop in his bat.. But there's also a huge hole in it as well.. So whatever.
Bend_The_Knee
formerly gotholesinmysocks
- Apr 11, 2008
- 61,807
- 23,561
Mauer will be a yankee by christmas.
- Jan 12, 2003
- 21,951
- 1,398
David Wright extension 
at least the franchise isn't complete ****....I can see Dickey moved to fill some other holes since the Mets have young arms
at least the franchise isn't complete ****....I can see Dickey moved to fill some other holes since the Mets have young arms
At first I wasn't a fan of the deal...but they got him for relatively "cheap". He could have gotten more AAV but fewer years elsewhere. I personally wouldn't go above five years for him but I'm glad he stayed loyal to the Mets. Now, if he can just get those second half swoons out of his system he'll be golden
I still think they extend RA for two years. They'll trade Niese first. Smart way to go. Especially if that Royals package turns out to be somewhat true.
I still think they extend RA for two years. They'll trade Niese first. Smart way to go. Especially if that Royals package turns out to be somewhat true.
- Jan 12, 2003
- 21,951
- 1,398
It's just a move they had to make, yeah he will more than likely be declining in his last year or so but he can possibly finish his career here and will have all time franchise records....have to keep the fans at the park.
He just needs some more talent around him to alleviate some pressure.
He just needs some more talent around him to alleviate some pressure.
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- Nov 15, 2007
- 7,904
- 2,187
Ehh wish it wasn't so much but as Mez said needed to be done. Need to get some more bats around him.
Pro, what do you think about Swish in Flushing as a fit
Pro, what do you think about Swish in Flushing as a fit
Thing is, he doesn't need the talent. He did perfectly well without it in the first half. He just needs to remember his plate discipline and not fall in love with swinging for the fences. Sustain the contact throughout the year. It's always been his biggest problem. But he showed big flashes for the first couple months so hopefully he can find that again. The team in general, is not that far from competing.
Personally I think he's a great fit in any lineup. Not for the Werth money he wants but he's extremely valuable as a player all around. Past playoff performances shouldn't shine negative lights on how awesome he really is as a player. As long as he's not in Boston, I'll always root for him
Personally I think he's a great fit in any lineup. Not for the Werth money he wants but he's extremely valuable as a player all around. Past playoff performances shouldn't shine negative lights on how awesome he really is as a player. As long as he's not in Boston, I'll always root for him
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Can Mets build winner around Wright?
Hamilton the next Griffey?
Twins do very well in Span trade.
Four stealth HOF candidates.
Detroit's middle infield problem.
The winter meetings haven't start yet, but baseball's winter market is already buzzing, with news breaking all over the place: Folks in the industry expected David Wright to take the New York Mets' offer and he did, as Adam Rubin writes.
The risk of leaving a $100 million-plus offer behind is just too great, at a time when Wright would have been a year from free agency. And without a big-time show of power, Wright was always going to be worth markedly more to the Mets than to any other team, because of his connection with the franchise; he is to the Mets what Derek Jeter has been to the Yankees.
Hot at the corner
How David Wright ranks amove MLB third basemen in his career.
Since 2005 Rank
BA .301 2nd
HR 190 4th
RBI 778 2nd
2B 305 1st
XBH 513 1st
The signing of B.J. Upton demonstrated, again, that teams will pay significantly for power -- and Wright has been more of a high-average hitter, with 35 homers over the last two seasons.
Bounce back?
Per WAR, 2012 was Wright's best year in a while, as he ranked 4th in the NL.
PLAYER WAR
Buster Posey 7.2
Andrew McCutchen 7.0
Ryan Braun 6.8
David Wright 6.7>Best season by WAR since 2008 (6.7)
The challenge for the Mets' baseball operations department moving forward will be to construct a roster around Wright with about $80 million or so at their disposal, because there are no indications the Mets will be increasing their payroll any time soon.
For a period of about four years, 2005-08, you could make a case that David Wright was perennially a legitimate NL MVP candidate. But over the last four years, 2009-12, Wright appears to have settled in as closer to a "very good" player, as measured by both traditional stats and advanced metrics.
Span-Meyer deal
• When Washington Nationals GM Mike Rizzo spoke with Denard Span for the first time after acquiring him from the Minnesota Twins on Thursday afternoon, he could tell Span was a little anxious -- and excited. "He mentioned what a great time he had in Minnesota, and how he was looking forward to playing with guys like Jayson Werth and Bryce]Harper," Rizzo told me.
Rizzo has been scouting Span for years, having first seen him when he was a high school senior in Tampa, Fla., before trying to trade for him in the summer of 2011. At that time, Span was dealing with some concussion issues and Rizzo was concerned about the price tag at that time.
But now, with Minnesota trying to rebuild it's organization's pitching, Rizzo surrendered hard-throwing pitching prospect Alex Meyer for Span -- a player who gives Rizzo tremendous flexibility in determining how to proceed at filling the first base job. Because Span hits left-handed, Rizzo doesn't feel as much pressure to sign Adam LaRoche to help balance the predominantly right-handed hitting Washington lineup.
Now Rizzo has multiple options and is in a position to look for the best possible deals, thusly:
1. He could re-sign LaRoche, who likely has a very limited market -- in part because the Nationals made a qualifying offer to him, which would cost the team that signed him a top draft pick. Some GMs think LaRoche may wind up getting his best deal from the Nationals -- and the two sides were relatively close to a new contract earlier this month.
If Rizzo signs LaRoche, he could trade Mike Morse, who would have good value this winter in light of some of the free agent prices (hello, B.J. Upton). Morse, 30, is coming off a year in which he hit .291 with 18 homers in 406 at-bats, and he'll be eligible for free agency next fall after playing for $6.75 million next summer.
2. The Nationals could let LaRoche walk away, and then shift Morse to first base, which is probably Morse's best defensive position.
3. Washington could keep LaRoche and Morse and work from extraordinary depth in 2013, especially in light of the respective injury histories of Morse, Werth and LaRoche. Remember, the Nationals have Tyler Moore, as well Washington manager Davey Johnson likes to use his whole roster, a lot, and he loves this trade.
Star Span
Denard Span has been one of the best center fielders in the AL over the last two years.
PLAYER WAR
Austin Jackson 10.0
Jacoby Ellsbury 8.8
Curtis Granderson 8.0
Denard Span 7.1
Adam Jones 6.2
A possible Washington lineup (and it's pretty darn good):
CF Denard Span
RF Jayson Werth
LF Bryce Harper
3B Ryan Zimmerman
1B Adam LaRoche
SS Ian Desmond
2B Danny Espinosa
C Kurt Suzuki
It's possible that Werth could be moved to left in spring training, as Adam Kilgore writes in this piece.
• The Twins had no choice but to try to trade to rebuild their pitching, because they don't have a lot of ways to do that. The free-agent market is thin, their minor-league system is pitching-poor, and rival executives say their major league team has almost no assets that could net top pitching talent in return. Span, with his team-friendly contract, had that kind of value. Let's face it: Until Minnesota improves it's pitching, they are doomed to irrelevancy, and Alex Meyer has the stuff to be a frontline starter.
The Twins are trying to be competitive, says Terry Ryan. I totally agree with what Jim Souhan writes here: The Twins made the right trade, and time will tell if they got the right player.
Now it's up to the Twins to develop him, writes Tom Powers.
• For all the speculation about Joe Mauer possibly being traded, it's worth reviewing some of the hurdles to any deal:
1. He's a Minnesotan with a full no-trade clause.
2. He's the Cal Ripken of the Twins' franchise, with his value to them going beyond just his OPS and catching skills. If they were to trade him, they'd need a major package of players in return, in addition to some national parks.
3. He's probably overpriced right now, at $23 million annually, so any team acquiring him would want salary relief that the Twins wouldn't want to give.
Around the league
• With the Atlanta Braves and Nationals making aggressive moves this week, some agents are speculating that Philadelphia Phillies GM Ruben Amaro will be itching to do something splashy -- like signing Josh Hamilton. They're just speculating, but as one said, "That's his M.O."
• The Boston Red Sox like Mike Napoli, but they may want to limit the years in his deal, to perhaps as few as two.
• The Yankees never made an offer to Russell Martin, given how they've placed a priority on pitching this winter with their available funds, and knowing what he was looking for. Martin told David Waldstein he had a great time in New York. The Yankees' deal with Mariano Rivera could be finished as soon as today.
• The Los Angeles Dodgers met with Zack Greinke Thursday. The expectation is that they will offer Long Beach and parts of Bakersfield to him, in the end.
• If the Pirates are ready to trade Joel Hanrahan, the Dodgers are ready to discuss, and have starting pitching to offer (like Chris Capuano). But the fact that Pittsburgh agreed to terms with Martin probably means that the Pirates are making a push for 2013 and trading their closer wouldn't seem to fit that.
Martin is a good fit for the Pirates, and yes, they overpaid a bit -- but that's what they need to do to get good veteran players to come to Pittsburgh. Texas also had made an overture to Martin.
This is the most expensive free-agent signing in Pirates' history, writes Rob Biertempfel.
• Francisco Liriano has drawn interest from the Minnesota Twins -- and another interesting match in the AL Central might be with the Kansas City Royals.
• The Phillies' best offer to B.J. Upton was $55 million over five years, according to Mark Bowman of MLB.com. The Upton signing is a risk for Atlanta, writes Jeff Schultz.
• The San Francisco Giants will talk about Brian Wilson again today, but the expectation is that they will non-tender the reliever. There have been no talks about a new negotiated deal for the arbitration-eligible closer -- and really, there's no reason for Wilson to haggle over a deal with San Francisco. He'd be better off going to free agency and finding a job in which he'd be more assured of being a closer.
This decision looms as the Giants prepare for the winter meetings, writes Alex Pavlovic.
• Some officials believe Ryan Dempster may land with the Brewers, eventually, because it would put him closer in proximity to his old home in Chicago.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. Mac Engel thinks the Rangers should spend their money on their rotation, and not on Josh Hamilton. If the Rangers sign Zack Greinke and passed on Hamilton, they would need to bolster their lineup, and the best free-agent fit still on the board could be Nick Swisher, because of his positional flexibility he can play right, left or first base.
2. Bob Elliott writes about how the Miami Marlins-Toronto Blue Jays trade went down. Mark Buehrle has warmed up to being a Blue Jay.
3. Alex Anthopoulos says he feels good about his team.
4. The Tigers know how to deal with Scott Boras, writes Bob Nightengale.
5. Alfredo Aceves may not fit the plans of the Red Sox.
6. The Kansas City Royals worked out a deal with Felipe Paulino.
7. Paul Daugherty thinks the Cincinnati Reds spent too much money on Jonathan Broxton.
8. The Cleveland Indians worked out a deal with Blake Wood.
9. Manny Parra is likely to be non-tendered today.
10. The Chicago White Sox are not likely to tender a contract to Phil Humber.
11. The Chicago Cubs hired a new director of baseball operations.
12. All is quiet for the Arizona Diamondbacks now, writes Nick Piecoro.
13. The Colorado Rockies don't appear ready to sign Dexter Fowler to a multi-year deal.
14. The Angels could work on the back end of their rotation, writes Mike DiGiovanna.
15. The San Diego Padres are going to play 37 exhibitions next spring.
16. Shane Victorino could be the best value for the Phillies. However: There are folks in the organization who feel it's best to move on from Victorino.
The risk of leaving a $100 million-plus offer behind is just too great, at a time when Wright would have been a year from free agency. And without a big-time show of power, Wright was always going to be worth markedly more to the Mets than to any other team, because of his connection with the franchise; he is to the Mets what Derek Jeter has been to the Yankees.
Hot at the corner
How David Wright ranks amove MLB third basemen in his career.
Since 2005 Rank
BA .301 2nd
HR 190 4th
RBI 778 2nd
2B 305 1st
XBH 513 1st
The signing of B.J. Upton demonstrated, again, that teams will pay significantly for power -- and Wright has been more of a high-average hitter, with 35 homers over the last two seasons.
Bounce back?
Per WAR, 2012 was Wright's best year in a while, as he ranked 4th in the NL.
PLAYER WAR
Buster Posey 7.2
Andrew McCutchen 7.0
Ryan Braun 6.8
David Wright 6.7>Best season by WAR since 2008 (6.7)
The challenge for the Mets' baseball operations department moving forward will be to construct a roster around Wright with about $80 million or so at their disposal, because there are no indications the Mets will be increasing their payroll any time soon.
For a period of about four years, 2005-08, you could make a case that David Wright was perennially a legitimate NL MVP candidate. But over the last four years, 2009-12, Wright appears to have settled in as closer to a "very good" player, as measured by both traditional stats and advanced metrics.
Span-Meyer deal
• When Washington Nationals GM Mike Rizzo spoke with Denard Span for the first time after acquiring him from the Minnesota Twins on Thursday afternoon, he could tell Span was a little anxious -- and excited. "He mentioned what a great time he had in Minnesota, and how he was looking forward to playing with guys like Jayson Werth and Bryce]Harper," Rizzo told me.
Rizzo has been scouting Span for years, having first seen him when he was a high school senior in Tampa, Fla., before trying to trade for him in the summer of 2011. At that time, Span was dealing with some concussion issues and Rizzo was concerned about the price tag at that time.
But now, with Minnesota trying to rebuild it's organization's pitching, Rizzo surrendered hard-throwing pitching prospect Alex Meyer for Span -- a player who gives Rizzo tremendous flexibility in determining how to proceed at filling the first base job. Because Span hits left-handed, Rizzo doesn't feel as much pressure to sign Adam LaRoche to help balance the predominantly right-handed hitting Washington lineup.
Now Rizzo has multiple options and is in a position to look for the best possible deals, thusly:
1. He could re-sign LaRoche, who likely has a very limited market -- in part because the Nationals made a qualifying offer to him, which would cost the team that signed him a top draft pick. Some GMs think LaRoche may wind up getting his best deal from the Nationals -- and the two sides were relatively close to a new contract earlier this month.
If Rizzo signs LaRoche, he could trade Mike Morse, who would have good value this winter in light of some of the free agent prices (hello, B.J. Upton). Morse, 30, is coming off a year in which he hit .291 with 18 homers in 406 at-bats, and he'll be eligible for free agency next fall after playing for $6.75 million next summer.
2. The Nationals could let LaRoche walk away, and then shift Morse to first base, which is probably Morse's best defensive position.
3. Washington could keep LaRoche and Morse and work from extraordinary depth in 2013, especially in light of the respective injury histories of Morse, Werth and LaRoche. Remember, the Nationals have Tyler Moore, as well Washington manager Davey Johnson likes to use his whole roster, a lot, and he loves this trade.
Star Span
Denard Span has been one of the best center fielders in the AL over the last two years.
PLAYER WAR
Austin Jackson 10.0
Jacoby Ellsbury 8.8
Curtis Granderson 8.0
Denard Span 7.1
Adam Jones 6.2
A possible Washington lineup (and it's pretty darn good):
CF Denard Span
RF Jayson Werth
LF Bryce Harper
3B Ryan Zimmerman
1B Adam LaRoche
SS Ian Desmond
2B Danny Espinosa
C Kurt Suzuki
It's possible that Werth could be moved to left in spring training, as Adam Kilgore writes in this piece.
• The Twins had no choice but to try to trade to rebuild their pitching, because they don't have a lot of ways to do that. The free-agent market is thin, their minor-league system is pitching-poor, and rival executives say their major league team has almost no assets that could net top pitching talent in return. Span, with his team-friendly contract, had that kind of value. Let's face it: Until Minnesota improves it's pitching, they are doomed to irrelevancy, and Alex Meyer has the stuff to be a frontline starter.
The Twins are trying to be competitive, says Terry Ryan. I totally agree with what Jim Souhan writes here: The Twins made the right trade, and time will tell if they got the right player.
Now it's up to the Twins to develop him, writes Tom Powers.
• For all the speculation about Joe Mauer possibly being traded, it's worth reviewing some of the hurdles to any deal:
1. He's a Minnesotan with a full no-trade clause.
2. He's the Cal Ripken of the Twins' franchise, with his value to them going beyond just his OPS and catching skills. If they were to trade him, they'd need a major package of players in return, in addition to some national parks.
3. He's probably overpriced right now, at $23 million annually, so any team acquiring him would want salary relief that the Twins wouldn't want to give.
Around the league
• With the Atlanta Braves and Nationals making aggressive moves this week, some agents are speculating that Philadelphia Phillies GM Ruben Amaro will be itching to do something splashy -- like signing Josh Hamilton. They're just speculating, but as one said, "That's his M.O."
• The Boston Red Sox like Mike Napoli, but they may want to limit the years in his deal, to perhaps as few as two.
• The Yankees never made an offer to Russell Martin, given how they've placed a priority on pitching this winter with their available funds, and knowing what he was looking for. Martin told David Waldstein he had a great time in New York. The Yankees' deal with Mariano Rivera could be finished as soon as today.
• The Los Angeles Dodgers met with Zack Greinke Thursday. The expectation is that they will offer Long Beach and parts of Bakersfield to him, in the end.
• If the Pirates are ready to trade Joel Hanrahan, the Dodgers are ready to discuss, and have starting pitching to offer (like Chris Capuano). But the fact that Pittsburgh agreed to terms with Martin probably means that the Pirates are making a push for 2013 and trading their closer wouldn't seem to fit that.
Martin is a good fit for the Pirates, and yes, they overpaid a bit -- but that's what they need to do to get good veteran players to come to Pittsburgh. Texas also had made an overture to Martin.
This is the most expensive free-agent signing in Pirates' history, writes Rob Biertempfel.
• Francisco Liriano has drawn interest from the Minnesota Twins -- and another interesting match in the AL Central might be with the Kansas City Royals.
• The Phillies' best offer to B.J. Upton was $55 million over five years, according to Mark Bowman of MLB.com. The Upton signing is a risk for Atlanta, writes Jeff Schultz.
• The San Francisco Giants will talk about Brian Wilson again today, but the expectation is that they will non-tender the reliever. There have been no talks about a new negotiated deal for the arbitration-eligible closer -- and really, there's no reason for Wilson to haggle over a deal with San Francisco. He'd be better off going to free agency and finding a job in which he'd be more assured of being a closer.
This decision looms as the Giants prepare for the winter meetings, writes Alex Pavlovic.
• Some officials believe Ryan Dempster may land with the Brewers, eventually, because it would put him closer in proximity to his old home in Chicago.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. Mac Engel thinks the Rangers should spend their money on their rotation, and not on Josh Hamilton. If the Rangers sign Zack Greinke and passed on Hamilton, they would need to bolster their lineup, and the best free-agent fit still on the board could be Nick Swisher, because of his positional flexibility he can play right, left or first base.
2. Bob Elliott writes about how the Miami Marlins-Toronto Blue Jays trade went down. Mark Buehrle has warmed up to being a Blue Jay.
3. Alex Anthopoulos says he feels good about his team.
4. The Tigers know how to deal with Scott Boras, writes Bob Nightengale.
5. Alfredo Aceves may not fit the plans of the Red Sox.
6. The Kansas City Royals worked out a deal with Felipe Paulino.
7. Paul Daugherty thinks the Cincinnati Reds spent too much money on Jonathan Broxton.
8. The Cleveland Indians worked out a deal with Blake Wood.
9. Manny Parra is likely to be non-tendered today.
10. The Chicago White Sox are not likely to tender a contract to Phil Humber.
11. The Chicago Cubs hired a new director of baseball operations.
12. All is quiet for the Arizona Diamondbacks now, writes Nick Piecoro.
13. The Colorado Rockies don't appear ready to sign Dexter Fowler to a multi-year deal.
14. The Angels could work on the back end of their rotation, writes Mike DiGiovanna.
15. The San Diego Padres are going to play 37 exhibitions next spring.
16. Shane Victorino could be the best value for the Phillies. However: There are folks in the organization who feel it's best to move on from Victorino.
Hamilton the next Griffey?
At some point this winter, a team with money to spend and an opening in the outfield for a big left-handed bat will make Josh Hamilton a very wealthy man. With the winter meetings approaching and some big names already off the board, the baseball world is wondering "When?" and "How wealthy?" Hamilton's home run totals and 2010 MVP season make him one of the most enticing talents on the market, but his age, injury record, history of substance abuse and performance away from the hitters' parks he's called home give general managers plenty of reasons to think twice before committing to a long-term contract.
We can tack on yet another concern to that long list of red flags: Hamilton is not a patient hitter. Over the course of his career, he's struck out at an above-average rate and walked at a (barely) below-average rate even though pitchers have plenty of incentive to stay away from his power. Last season, his tendency to swing (and chase) grew much more pronounced, while his contact percentage plummeted.
Because Hamilton doesn't add any value via the walk, most of his offensive performance hinges on what happens when he makes contact. The outcome of a batted ball is dependent on two things: speed and quality of contact. The early 30s are when bat speed starts to slip and reaction time suffers. If Hamilton had better command of the strike zone, his ability to take walks could compensate for his inevitable declines in other areas. As it is, his offensive value is closely tied to skills that soon start to fade in free agents of a certain age.
In May, I wrote about the six-year, $85.5 million extension a somewhat similar player, Adam Jones, received from the Baltimore Orioles. Jones walks less often than Hamilton and hits for less power, but both players generally fit the low-walk, high-power profile, with roughly the same career strikeout rate.
To see what effect a low walk rate might have on how a player ages, I looked for hitters with power production similar to Jones' through May (and, as it happens, Hamilton's) and divided them into two groups, one for those who walked in less than 10 percent of their plate appearances and another for those who made it over that mark.
What I found was that after a certain age, the low-walk hitters aged worse than the high-walk group. Not only did their production per plate appearance suffer a steeper drop, but their playing time tailed off more quickly, too. Because Jones was still just 26 when his extension was signed, I concluded that despite his impatient profile, the deal made sense for Baltimore.
Low-walk power hitters don't start to suffer relative to high-walk power hitters until their age-32 seasons. After age 32, Jones won't have to be the Orioles' problem, so they can enjoy his prime production and let someone else overpay for what could be an unforgiving decline phase later.
Hamilton's future
His PECOTA projection is not that promising.
Year Age PA TAv WARP
2012 31 636 .307 3.9
2013 32 571 .294 3.4
2014 33 567 .291 3.2
2015 34 561 .287 2.9
2016 35 551 .280 2.5
2017 36 537 .271 1.9
2018 37 519 .259 1.1
2019 38 496 .243 0.3
Hamilton's employer, however, won't have that luxury: His prime production is already past, and his decline phase is about to begin. In the table to the right are Hamilton's statistics from 2012, along with the stats projected for his next seven seasons by BP's projection system, PECOTA.
These projections don't incorporate the potential effects of Hamilton's past struggles with substance abuse or build in any risk of a relapse, since we can't quantify those factors precisely. Even without accounting for those variables, though, PECOTA projects that Hamilton would be close to a replacement-level player by the end of the seven-year contract he reportedly covets, totaling 15.3 WARP over the life of the deal.
If we set the current going rate for a free-agent win at $5 million and factor in a conservative 5 percent annual inflation rate, a win would cost $7 million on the open market by the end of the deal. All told, that 15.3 WARP would translate to just more than $85 million in value. Given the recent increase in leaguewide revenue from television contracts and the CBA changes that limit spending in other areas, the inflation rate over that span may significantly exceed 5 percent, but even if we peg the average value of a free-agent win over the next seven seasons at $7 million, the total value climbs to only $107 million or so.
PECOTA bases part of its projection on how comparable players have performed in the past. While the pool of players compared to Hamilton includes some encouraging names, two of his top comps -- Ken Griffey Jr. and Andruw Jones -- lived the sort of nightmarish scenarios that can't be far from the minds of Hamilton's suitors. Both players were superstars through age 30, but a combination of injuries, poor conditioning and eroding skills made them only marginally productive after they passed that point. Griffey played through age 40 but accumulated only 8.2 WARP of his 79.2 career total after age 31, while Jones has amassed just 2.5 WARP in his age-32-to-35 seasons.
Hamilton isn't doomed to suffer a similar fate, but those examples remind us of how quickly a productive player can become an albatross.
Earlier this week, Buster Olney wrote that the market for Hamilton has been slow to develop, noting that teams appear to be wary of extending an offer longer than four years. A four-year contract would take Hamilton through 2016 and, according to our conservative model, be worth just more than $64 million. Raise the four-year average value of a win to $7 million, and the most reasonable sum rises to $84 million, or $21 annually through age 35 -- coincidentally or not, the age at which PECOTA expects Hamilton to be an above-average player for the final time. A team on the October bubble might be willing to pay a premium for his short-term production, but for most clubs, that looks like a prudent place to draw the line.
We can tack on yet another concern to that long list of red flags: Hamilton is not a patient hitter. Over the course of his career, he's struck out at an above-average rate and walked at a (barely) below-average rate even though pitchers have plenty of incentive to stay away from his power. Last season, his tendency to swing (and chase) grew much more pronounced, while his contact percentage plummeted.
Because Hamilton doesn't add any value via the walk, most of his offensive performance hinges on what happens when he makes contact. The outcome of a batted ball is dependent on two things: speed and quality of contact. The early 30s are when bat speed starts to slip and reaction time suffers. If Hamilton had better command of the strike zone, his ability to take walks could compensate for his inevitable declines in other areas. As it is, his offensive value is closely tied to skills that soon start to fade in free agents of a certain age.
In May, I wrote about the six-year, $85.5 million extension a somewhat similar player, Adam Jones, received from the Baltimore Orioles. Jones walks less often than Hamilton and hits for less power, but both players generally fit the low-walk, high-power profile, with roughly the same career strikeout rate.
To see what effect a low walk rate might have on how a player ages, I looked for hitters with power production similar to Jones' through May (and, as it happens, Hamilton's) and divided them into two groups, one for those who walked in less than 10 percent of their plate appearances and another for those who made it over that mark.
What I found was that after a certain age, the low-walk hitters aged worse than the high-walk group. Not only did their production per plate appearance suffer a steeper drop, but their playing time tailed off more quickly, too. Because Jones was still just 26 when his extension was signed, I concluded that despite his impatient profile, the deal made sense for Baltimore.
Low-walk power hitters don't start to suffer relative to high-walk power hitters until their age-32 seasons. After age 32, Jones won't have to be the Orioles' problem, so they can enjoy his prime production and let someone else overpay for what could be an unforgiving decline phase later.
Hamilton's future
His PECOTA projection is not that promising.
Year Age PA TAv WARP
2012 31 636 .307 3.9
2013 32 571 .294 3.4
2014 33 567 .291 3.2
2015 34 561 .287 2.9
2016 35 551 .280 2.5
2017 36 537 .271 1.9
2018 37 519 .259 1.1
2019 38 496 .243 0.3
Hamilton's employer, however, won't have that luxury: His prime production is already past, and his decline phase is about to begin. In the table to the right are Hamilton's statistics from 2012, along with the stats projected for his next seven seasons by BP's projection system, PECOTA.
These projections don't incorporate the potential effects of Hamilton's past struggles with substance abuse or build in any risk of a relapse, since we can't quantify those factors precisely. Even without accounting for those variables, though, PECOTA projects that Hamilton would be close to a replacement-level player by the end of the seven-year contract he reportedly covets, totaling 15.3 WARP over the life of the deal.
If we set the current going rate for a free-agent win at $5 million and factor in a conservative 5 percent annual inflation rate, a win would cost $7 million on the open market by the end of the deal. All told, that 15.3 WARP would translate to just more than $85 million in value. Given the recent increase in leaguewide revenue from television contracts and the CBA changes that limit spending in other areas, the inflation rate over that span may significantly exceed 5 percent, but even if we peg the average value of a free-agent win over the next seven seasons at $7 million, the total value climbs to only $107 million or so.
PECOTA bases part of its projection on how comparable players have performed in the past. While the pool of players compared to Hamilton includes some encouraging names, two of his top comps -- Ken Griffey Jr. and Andruw Jones -- lived the sort of nightmarish scenarios that can't be far from the minds of Hamilton's suitors. Both players were superstars through age 30, but a combination of injuries, poor conditioning and eroding skills made them only marginally productive after they passed that point. Griffey played through age 40 but accumulated only 8.2 WARP of his 79.2 career total after age 31, while Jones has amassed just 2.5 WARP in his age-32-to-35 seasons.
Hamilton isn't doomed to suffer a similar fate, but those examples remind us of how quickly a productive player can become an albatross.
Earlier this week, Buster Olney wrote that the market for Hamilton has been slow to develop, noting that teams appear to be wary of extending an offer longer than four years. A four-year contract would take Hamilton through 2016 and, according to our conservative model, be worth just more than $64 million. Raise the four-year average value of a win to $7 million, and the most reasonable sum rises to $84 million, or $21 annually through age 35 -- coincidentally or not, the age at which PECOTA expects Hamilton to be an above-average player for the final time. A team on the October bubble might be willing to pay a premium for his short-term production, but for most clubs, that looks like a prudent place to draw the line.
Twins do very well in Span trade.
The Washington Nationals didn't get much production from their non-wunderkind outfielders in 2012, so adding Denard Span and sliding Bryce Harper to right makes the team better by a couple of wins in 2013. The price they paid was heavy, though, with the Minnesota Twins receiving Alex Meyer the kind of hard-throwing, high-upside arm their system lacks.
Span is a solid everyday player who has made himself into an above-average defender in center, a position where his modest bat will play even though he's not particularly patient and has well below-average power. Span's deal pays him a very reasonable $10.25 million total over the next two seasons, with a $9 million option for 2015, so the Nats get three years of control at affordable prices, and can walk away from Span right at the point where he's likely to start to see his value slip. In the interim, however, he gives them an average regular in center whose value will fluctuate with his BABIP.
He has quick wrists and has a handsy swing, putting the ball in play at a very high rate and using the whole field but rarely driving the ball for power. He's a plus runner who gains a few hits each year from his speed and has been worth a few extra runs a year on the bases as well. Yet even in his two highest-BABIP seasons, he's peaked at 4 wins above replacement (per FanGraphs), and the ups and downs of his batting average on balls in play can shave more than a win off that figure. That's still a good fit for a Nats team that lacked a true centerfielder.
For that, however, they gave up a very good pitching prospect in Meyer, who, if he stays healthy, could easily make the Nats regret this deal in the long run. Meyer is generally tabbed as a future reliever because he's primarily a two-pitch guy who, at 6-foot-7, has had trouble keeping his mechanics together, and comes from a slot below three-quarters. I can see all of those concerns and do think there's a chance Meyer ends up in relief, but I'm also somewhat optimistic that he can remain a starter -- and if he does, he'll likely be a very good one, pitching near the top of a rotation.
Meyer has touched 99 and can work at 92-97 even as a starter, with good life on the pitch due to his low slot, although his ground ball rates in pro ball have been just okay. His slider is filthy, a bona fide out pitch whether he starts or closes in the majors, while his changeup has improved to the point where it's probably a future-average pitch. (He hasn't shown any kind of platoon split so far in the minors anyway.) There's a good enough chance that he starts that I'd hate to give him up for three years of a league-average centerfielder unless my club was an immediate contender -- which the Nats are. For the Twins, this gives them the potential frontline starter they didn't see in the 2012 draft class, when they passed on Kevin Gausman and Mark Appel in favor of very high-upside prep center fielder Byron Buxton. Pair Meyer with the resurgent Kyle Gibson, who showed a plus mid-80s slider in the Arizona Fall League, and the Twins' future pitching situation looks a lot more promising.
This does leave Washington's system fairly short on the pitching side at the moment. The Nats' best remaining starting pitching prospect, Luc Giolito, is out until next summer after Tommy John surgery, and while he projects as a potential No. 1 or No. 2 starter, he's probably five years away from major-league impact. Their next-best starter prospect, lefty Sammy Solis, is just coming back from the same operation. Nate Karns is the sleeper, with a plus fastball/curveball combo and a potentially plus changeup, but he's yet to reach Double-A at age 24. They're going to live or die with the pitching already on the big club, or whatever they can add through free agency, because they don't have much arriving soon and their tradeable assets are dwindling.
One other possible beneficiary of this deal is the Colorado Rockies, should they choose to move Dexter Fowler, a talented, athletic center fielder who doesn't have Span's speed or defensive value but has more offensive potential, especially in terms of power. The Rockies' direction isn't entirely clear to me, but Fowler's youth and affordability should net them a higher return than the strong one the Twins just got for Span.
Span is a solid everyday player who has made himself into an above-average defender in center, a position where his modest bat will play even though he's not particularly patient and has well below-average power. Span's deal pays him a very reasonable $10.25 million total over the next two seasons, with a $9 million option for 2015, so the Nats get three years of control at affordable prices, and can walk away from Span right at the point where he's likely to start to see his value slip. In the interim, however, he gives them an average regular in center whose value will fluctuate with his BABIP.
He has quick wrists and has a handsy swing, putting the ball in play at a very high rate and using the whole field but rarely driving the ball for power. He's a plus runner who gains a few hits each year from his speed and has been worth a few extra runs a year on the bases as well. Yet even in his two highest-BABIP seasons, he's peaked at 4 wins above replacement (per FanGraphs), and the ups and downs of his batting average on balls in play can shave more than a win off that figure. That's still a good fit for a Nats team that lacked a true centerfielder.
For that, however, they gave up a very good pitching prospect in Meyer, who, if he stays healthy, could easily make the Nats regret this deal in the long run. Meyer is generally tabbed as a future reliever because he's primarily a two-pitch guy who, at 6-foot-7, has had trouble keeping his mechanics together, and comes from a slot below three-quarters. I can see all of those concerns and do think there's a chance Meyer ends up in relief, but I'm also somewhat optimistic that he can remain a starter -- and if he does, he'll likely be a very good one, pitching near the top of a rotation.
Meyer has touched 99 and can work at 92-97 even as a starter, with good life on the pitch due to his low slot, although his ground ball rates in pro ball have been just okay. His slider is filthy, a bona fide out pitch whether he starts or closes in the majors, while his changeup has improved to the point where it's probably a future-average pitch. (He hasn't shown any kind of platoon split so far in the minors anyway.) There's a good enough chance that he starts that I'd hate to give him up for three years of a league-average centerfielder unless my club was an immediate contender -- which the Nats are. For the Twins, this gives them the potential frontline starter they didn't see in the 2012 draft class, when they passed on Kevin Gausman and Mark Appel in favor of very high-upside prep center fielder Byron Buxton. Pair Meyer with the resurgent Kyle Gibson, who showed a plus mid-80s slider in the Arizona Fall League, and the Twins' future pitching situation looks a lot more promising.
This does leave Washington's system fairly short on the pitching side at the moment. The Nats' best remaining starting pitching prospect, Luc Giolito, is out until next summer after Tommy John surgery, and while he projects as a potential No. 1 or No. 2 starter, he's probably five years away from major-league impact. Their next-best starter prospect, lefty Sammy Solis, is just coming back from the same operation. Nate Karns is the sleeper, with a plus fastball/curveball combo and a potentially plus changeup, but he's yet to reach Double-A at age 24. They're going to live or die with the pitching already on the big club, or whatever they can add through free agency, because they don't have much arriving soon and their tradeable assets are dwindling.
One other possible beneficiary of this deal is the Colorado Rockies, should they choose to move Dexter Fowler, a talented, athletic center fielder who doesn't have Span's speed or defensive value but has more offensive potential, especially in terms of power. The Rockies' direction isn't entirely clear to me, but Fowler's youth and affordability should net them a higher return than the strong one the Twins just got for Span.
Four stealth HOF candidates.
Bert Blyleven is in the Hall of Fame because he was a great pitcher who belongs in Cooperstown, but also because he was the poster child for the analytically inclined baseball community for the better part of a decade. Led by a blogger named Rich Lederer, Blyleven's supporters inundated writers with articles and stories supporting Blyleven's election, and on his 14th chance, he finally crossed the 75 percent mark needed for enshrinement.
With Blyleven in, now the groundswell of support is rising behind Tim Raines, an underappreciated star of his era whose willingness to draw a walk has kept him out of the Hall because he didn't get to 3,000 hits. Raines' skill set has always been undervalued, and to this day, players who do what Raines did don't get as much credit for their performances as bulky sluggers who drive in runs. The recent AL MVP race made it clear that many still prefer the RBI guy to the table setter.
So, given what we know about what types of players make it into the Hall of Fame, here are four active players who are on track to be worthy of Cooperstown one day, but who have flown under the radar to some degree during their careers and will probably require a long lobbying effort to get them elected once their careers are over.
Adrian Beltre | Third Base
Third basemen are woefully underrepresented as a group in the Hall, and Brooks Robinson is basically the only third baseman who got inducted based on his defense. While elite defenders at other positions have been recognized, the great defensive third baseman has never gotten much recognition. Unless voters have an epiphany about the value of defense at the hot corner, Beltre will be fighting an uphill battle.
Beltre
His career line (.280 AVG/.331 OBP/.476 SLG) translates into a mark of 111 wRC+, meaning he's been 11 percent better than an average hitter based on the league norms and his home ballparks during his career. For comparison, that puts him in a tie with Graig Nettles, who never received more than 8.3 percent of the vote and fell off the ballot after just four years. Beltre's offensive résumé is simply not at the level of other Hall of Fame third basemen.
But anyone who has watched Beltre play for any length of time realizes that there's a lot more to his game than what he does in the batter's box. He is an amazing defender at third base and has played Gold Glove defense at the position for nearly 18,000 innings. For his career, Ultimate Zone Rating estimates that he's saved 147 runs more than an average defensive third baseman. When you combine that level of defensive greatness with an above-average bat, you get a pretty terrific player. When Beltre hits like he has in recent years, he's one of the best players in the sport.
His career inconsistencies, and the fact that so much of his value is tied up in his defense, will hurt him. But he has already accumulated 62.5 WAR through age 33. Even if he's just an average player for the next four years, he'll crack the 70-WAR barrier, and an overwhelming majority of players with 70 or more WAR have a plaque in Cooperstown. As long as he doesn't fall off a cliff in the next few years, Beltre will deserve one, too.
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Matt Holliday | Left Fielder
The case for Holliday is essentially the exact opposite as the case for Beltre. Instead of being about defense and longevity, Holliday's case is about recognizing a premium hitter who has had one of the best seven-year runs in baseball history. Since 2006, Holliday has posted a wRC+ of 138 or higher in every single season, and his 145 cumulative wRC+ over that span ranks as the sixth-highest mark in baseball during that stretch -- the only guys ahead of him are Albert Pujols, Joey Votto, Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Braun and Manny Ramirez.
Holliday
Unfortunately for Holliday, his offense comes from hitting for a high average and racking up a lot of doubles, so he doesn't have the sexy home run totals that voters tend to look for in a guy who is up for election based on his offensive production. He has hit only 30 home runs in a season on two occasions, and both of those years came in Colorado. With just 229 career home runs, Holliday won't get close to any of the big slugger milestones, but looking at his overall value as a hitter, his ability to win games becomes clearer.
Holliday has been a beast of a hitter for the better part of the last decade, yet he's continually flown under the radar. He has finished in the top 10 in MVP voting only once -- in 2007, when he finished second. It's probably too late for him to run off a series of multiple monster seasons to get the voters' attention, but he has shown no signs of slowing down in recent years, and a few more seasons at his established level should be enough to get him serious Hall of Fame consideration.
Because he got a later start on his career, he'll need to age gracefully to have a strong case, but Holliday has already had a Hall of Famer's peak. Now he just needs to stick around long enough to add enough counting stats so people remember how good he actually was.
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Jose Reyes | Shortstop
If Reyes falls short of 3,000 hits -- he has 1,484 and turns 30 next summer, so it will depend almost entirely on how well his hamstrings hold up -- he won't fly below any voter's radar, but singles hitters who don't reach that milestone have traditionally not done particularly well in the voting.
Reyes
However, Reyes is a singles-hitting shortstop who has already had four elite seasons, and if he ages like Kenny Lofton, he could remain a productive player for the next decade and add enough longevity to build a solid Hall of Fame case. If he keeps hitting into his mid-to-late 30s, his career will start to resemble Alan Trammell's -- another undervalued shortstop who the analytical community is agitating for.
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Matt Cain | Right-handed Pitcher
His perfect game and postseason track record have helped put Cain on the map, but in many of the milestone categories that voters tend to look at, he comes up short. He has never finished in the top five in Cy Young voting and has made just three All-Star teams.
Cain
And, perhaps most problematic, he has a career record of just 85-78. Even if he stays healthy and continues to pitch well, averaging 15 wins per year for the next decade, he'll still finish with fewer than 250 wins, and the voting electorate continues to hang on to pitcher wins as a useful measure of value.
Yet Cain's career ERA- of 80 -- meaning he has prevented runs at 20 percent better than league average -- puts him in a tie with CC Sabathia and ahead of Hall of Famers like Juan Marichal and Bob Feller. If Cain keeps pitching the way he has thus far, he'll deserve a spot in Cooperstown, but he'll need voters to abandon pitcher wins in order to see his true value.
With Blyleven in, now the groundswell of support is rising behind Tim Raines, an underappreciated star of his era whose willingness to draw a walk has kept him out of the Hall because he didn't get to 3,000 hits. Raines' skill set has always been undervalued, and to this day, players who do what Raines did don't get as much credit for their performances as bulky sluggers who drive in runs. The recent AL MVP race made it clear that many still prefer the RBI guy to the table setter.
So, given what we know about what types of players make it into the Hall of Fame, here are four active players who are on track to be worthy of Cooperstown one day, but who have flown under the radar to some degree during their careers and will probably require a long lobbying effort to get them elected once their careers are over.
Adrian Beltre | Third Base
Third basemen are woefully underrepresented as a group in the Hall, and Brooks Robinson is basically the only third baseman who got inducted based on his defense. While elite defenders at other positions have been recognized, the great defensive third baseman has never gotten much recognition. Unless voters have an epiphany about the value of defense at the hot corner, Beltre will be fighting an uphill battle.
Beltre
His career line (.280 AVG/.331 OBP/.476 SLG) translates into a mark of 111 wRC+, meaning he's been 11 percent better than an average hitter based on the league norms and his home ballparks during his career. For comparison, that puts him in a tie with Graig Nettles, who never received more than 8.3 percent of the vote and fell off the ballot after just four years. Beltre's offensive résumé is simply not at the level of other Hall of Fame third basemen.
But anyone who has watched Beltre play for any length of time realizes that there's a lot more to his game than what he does in the batter's box. He is an amazing defender at third base and has played Gold Glove defense at the position for nearly 18,000 innings. For his career, Ultimate Zone Rating estimates that he's saved 147 runs more than an average defensive third baseman. When you combine that level of defensive greatness with an above-average bat, you get a pretty terrific player. When Beltre hits like he has in recent years, he's one of the best players in the sport.
His career inconsistencies, and the fact that so much of his value is tied up in his defense, will hurt him. But he has already accumulated 62.5 WAR through age 33. Even if he's just an average player for the next four years, he'll crack the 70-WAR barrier, and an overwhelming majority of players with 70 or more WAR have a plaque in Cooperstown. As long as he doesn't fall off a cliff in the next few years, Beltre will deserve one, too.
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Matt Holliday | Left Fielder
The case for Holliday is essentially the exact opposite as the case for Beltre. Instead of being about defense and longevity, Holliday's case is about recognizing a premium hitter who has had one of the best seven-year runs in baseball history. Since 2006, Holliday has posted a wRC+ of 138 or higher in every single season, and his 145 cumulative wRC+ over that span ranks as the sixth-highest mark in baseball during that stretch -- the only guys ahead of him are Albert Pujols, Joey Votto, Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Braun and Manny Ramirez.
Holliday
Unfortunately for Holliday, his offense comes from hitting for a high average and racking up a lot of doubles, so he doesn't have the sexy home run totals that voters tend to look for in a guy who is up for election based on his offensive production. He has hit only 30 home runs in a season on two occasions, and both of those years came in Colorado. With just 229 career home runs, Holliday won't get close to any of the big slugger milestones, but looking at his overall value as a hitter, his ability to win games becomes clearer.
Holliday has been a beast of a hitter for the better part of the last decade, yet he's continually flown under the radar. He has finished in the top 10 in MVP voting only once -- in 2007, when he finished second. It's probably too late for him to run off a series of multiple monster seasons to get the voters' attention, but he has shown no signs of slowing down in recent years, and a few more seasons at his established level should be enough to get him serious Hall of Fame consideration.
Because he got a later start on his career, he'll need to age gracefully to have a strong case, but Holliday has already had a Hall of Famer's peak. Now he just needs to stick around long enough to add enough counting stats so people remember how good he actually was.
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Jose Reyes | Shortstop
If Reyes falls short of 3,000 hits -- he has 1,484 and turns 30 next summer, so it will depend almost entirely on how well his hamstrings hold up -- he won't fly below any voter's radar, but singles hitters who don't reach that milestone have traditionally not done particularly well in the voting.
Reyes
However, Reyes is a singles-hitting shortstop who has already had four elite seasons, and if he ages like Kenny Lofton, he could remain a productive player for the next decade and add enough longevity to build a solid Hall of Fame case. If he keeps hitting into his mid-to-late 30s, his career will start to resemble Alan Trammell's -- another undervalued shortstop who the analytical community is agitating for.
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Matt Cain | Right-handed Pitcher
His perfect game and postseason track record have helped put Cain on the map, but in many of the milestone categories that voters tend to look at, he comes up short. He has never finished in the top five in Cy Young voting and has made just three All-Star teams.
Cain
And, perhaps most problematic, he has a career record of just 85-78. Even if he stays healthy and continues to pitch well, averaging 15 wins per year for the next decade, he'll still finish with fewer than 250 wins, and the voting electorate continues to hang on to pitcher wins as a useful measure of value.
Yet Cain's career ERA- of 80 -- meaning he has prevented runs at 20 percent better than league average -- puts him in a tie with CC Sabathia and ahead of Hall of Famers like Juan Marichal and Bob Feller. If Cain keeps pitching the way he has thus far, he'll deserve a spot in Cooperstown, but he'll need voters to abandon pitcher wins in order to see his true value.
Detroit's middle infield problem.
It's often said that the best way for baseball teams to build a championship squad is up the middle, with middle generally referring to catcher, second base, shortstop and center field. In Austin Jackson and Alex Avila, the Detroit Tigers -- a team with World Series aspirations -- have half of that equation solved, but second base and shortstop could once again grow to be the team's Achilles' heel.
In second baseman Omar Infante and shortstop Jhonny Peralta, the Tigers have a pair of middle infielders who will both play in their age-31 seasons in 2013. Infante has enjoyed a career transformation the past couple of seasons. After serving in a utility role for most of his career, Infante was given an opportunity to start in 2010 by the Braves, and he ran with it, posting the best offensive season of his career. It capped a three-year period with the Braves during which he posted average or better offensive numbers. They unfortunately stick out as the three best offensive seasons of his career:
Atlanta years: 1,083 PA, .309/.353/.411, .763 OPS
The rest: 2,960 PA, .262/.302/.392, .693 OPS
That's a 70-point difference in OPS, and a 47-point difference in batting average. We could run through a litany of advanced stats as well, but suffice to say, whatever worked for Infante in Atlanta did not or has not worked elsewhere. Infante's .257/.283/.385 line in his two months in Detroit in 2012 didn't even match that career-outside-of-Atlanta average. At the very least, Detroit can at least be confident in his fielding. As he has received more steady playing time at one position, his fielding performance has improved -- he has been 18 runs above average over the past two years according to UZR -- but even with two months of Infante's good defense, the only team to get worse production out of its second basemen last season was the Orioles. It's unlikely that a full season of Infante will make second base an above-average position for the Tigers.
Shortstop also was a below-average unit for the Tigers last season, thanks to the underwhelming play of Peralta. He too has turned in play that was well above average defensively the past two years according to his UZR numbers (18.8 runs above average in that time), but other advanced statistics paint Peralta as average or worse, and it's not hard to see why. Peralta is often described as having "fall-down" range, as in he only reaches balls he can reach by falling down to either side.
Peralta's improvement or lack thereof defensively may be up for debate, but his decline offensively is not -- he has been below average at the plate in three of the past four seasons, last year included. Even when he has been good, Peralta has been inconsistent. He has posted a .450 slugging percentage or better in three of his eight full big league seasons, but never in back-to-back seasons. And he has only achieved a .350 or better on-base percentage in one of those eight years, and that was his first full season back in 2005. Simply put, Peralta is just not very good.
To the Tigers' credit, they know that. Last week, they were mentioned as a suitor for Stephen Drew, and if they are able to sign him, they presumably will have the freedom to deal Peralta to another team (the Arizona Diamondbacks have been said to be interested). Outside of Drew and Marco Scutaro however, there aren't any palatable starting shortstops available in free agency. And with the Tigers' farm system depleted, they will need to work hard to find an upgrade over Peralta via trade. If they are serious about winning while Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder and Justin Verlander are in their primes, it might make sense to use top prospect Nick Castellanos as trade bait to get an elite shortstop or second baseman. Castellanos' natural position is third base, where he is blocked by Cabrera, so he could be expendable. While they can't move Peralta to another position, Infante could easily go back to his super-sub role and have plenty of value there if they acquire a better second basemen.
It's not all doom and gloom up the middle, of course. Last season, Jackson posted one of the best seasons in the game, and it was curious that he didn't receive even one vote for the Most Valuable Player award. (He had 5.5 WAR, per FanGraphs, which ranked eighth in the AL.) At 5.5 WAR, only 21 players in baseball were more valuable than Jackson. At the other end of the diamond, backstop Avila wasn't able to duplicate the production of his 2011 breakout campaign, but he was still better than league average offensively, while maintaining decent defense and baserunning numbers as well. And because he'll be only 26 next year, his best days may still be ahead of him.
The Tigers have been very strong on the mound and on the corners, and with Torii Hunter's arrival and Delmon Young's dismissal, they should be even stronger there in 2013. And in Jackson and Avila, they have a good foundation up the middle. But the Tigers are playing to win it all in 2013, and their middle infield remains a soft spot. There are as many ways to win as there are stories in the naked city, but being strong up the middle is one of the easiest paths to ultimate victory, and unfortunately for the Tigers, they are not yet there.
In second baseman Omar Infante and shortstop Jhonny Peralta, the Tigers have a pair of middle infielders who will both play in their age-31 seasons in 2013. Infante has enjoyed a career transformation the past couple of seasons. After serving in a utility role for most of his career, Infante was given an opportunity to start in 2010 by the Braves, and he ran with it, posting the best offensive season of his career. It capped a three-year period with the Braves during which he posted average or better offensive numbers. They unfortunately stick out as the three best offensive seasons of his career:
Atlanta years: 1,083 PA, .309/.353/.411, .763 OPS
The rest: 2,960 PA, .262/.302/.392, .693 OPS
That's a 70-point difference in OPS, and a 47-point difference in batting average. We could run through a litany of advanced stats as well, but suffice to say, whatever worked for Infante in Atlanta did not or has not worked elsewhere. Infante's .257/.283/.385 line in his two months in Detroit in 2012 didn't even match that career-outside-of-Atlanta average. At the very least, Detroit can at least be confident in his fielding. As he has received more steady playing time at one position, his fielding performance has improved -- he has been 18 runs above average over the past two years according to UZR -- but even with two months of Infante's good defense, the only team to get worse production out of its second basemen last season was the Orioles. It's unlikely that a full season of Infante will make second base an above-average position for the Tigers.
Shortstop also was a below-average unit for the Tigers last season, thanks to the underwhelming play of Peralta. He too has turned in play that was well above average defensively the past two years according to his UZR numbers (18.8 runs above average in that time), but other advanced statistics paint Peralta as average or worse, and it's not hard to see why. Peralta is often described as having "fall-down" range, as in he only reaches balls he can reach by falling down to either side.
Peralta's improvement or lack thereof defensively may be up for debate, but his decline offensively is not -- he has been below average at the plate in three of the past four seasons, last year included. Even when he has been good, Peralta has been inconsistent. He has posted a .450 slugging percentage or better in three of his eight full big league seasons, but never in back-to-back seasons. And he has only achieved a .350 or better on-base percentage in one of those eight years, and that was his first full season back in 2005. Simply put, Peralta is just not very good.
To the Tigers' credit, they know that. Last week, they were mentioned as a suitor for Stephen Drew, and if they are able to sign him, they presumably will have the freedom to deal Peralta to another team (the Arizona Diamondbacks have been said to be interested). Outside of Drew and Marco Scutaro however, there aren't any palatable starting shortstops available in free agency. And with the Tigers' farm system depleted, they will need to work hard to find an upgrade over Peralta via trade. If they are serious about winning while Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder and Justin Verlander are in their primes, it might make sense to use top prospect Nick Castellanos as trade bait to get an elite shortstop or second baseman. Castellanos' natural position is third base, where he is blocked by Cabrera, so he could be expendable. While they can't move Peralta to another position, Infante could easily go back to his super-sub role and have plenty of value there if they acquire a better second basemen.
It's not all doom and gloom up the middle, of course. Last season, Jackson posted one of the best seasons in the game, and it was curious that he didn't receive even one vote for the Most Valuable Player award. (He had 5.5 WAR, per FanGraphs, which ranked eighth in the AL.) At 5.5 WAR, only 21 players in baseball were more valuable than Jackson. At the other end of the diamond, backstop Avila wasn't able to duplicate the production of his 2011 breakout campaign, but he was still better than league average offensively, while maintaining decent defense and baserunning numbers as well. And because he'll be only 26 next year, his best days may still be ahead of him.
The Tigers have been very strong on the mound and on the corners, and with Torii Hunter's arrival and Delmon Young's dismissal, they should be even stronger there in 2013. And in Jackson and Avila, they have a good foundation up the middle. But the Tigers are playing to win it all in 2013, and their middle infield remains a soft spot. There are as many ways to win as there are stories in the naked city, but being strong up the middle is one of the easiest paths to ultimate victory, and unfortunately for the Tigers, they are not yet there.
David Wright Deal a Solid Bet for Mets.
Russell Martin Bringing New Element to Pirates Baseball.
Nationals Steal Denard Span From Twins.
Forgot to say RIP to Marvin Miller.
Marvin Miller’s Legacy, and the Decline of Labor.
It’s Time To Expand HOF Ballots.
Multiple sources are reporting that David Wright and the New York Mets have reached agreement on a contract extension that essentially makes the third baseman a Met for life.
Initial reports have the deal at 7 years/$122 million. This is on top of next year’s $16 million team option, taking the total years and value of the contract to 8/$138.
It always pays to be skeptical of long-term deals for players on the wrong side of 30, simply because we know — on average — that performance only declines from this point on.
Let’s take a look at how this might play out for the club.
Using a basic 5/3/2 approach — where you weight last year’s WAR .5, the year prior .3, and the year prior to that .2 — Wright is roughly a “true” 5.3 win player entering 2013. We can take that and estimate his value and performance going forward using some techniques borrowed from Tom Tango (and Jeff Zimmerman). Assume that player’s lose roughly .5 WAR per year from ages 28-32, and then .7 WAR per year after 32. Further, assume that the price teams pay for wins increases 5% per year.
Here’s how the Wright deal projects:
Year Age $/W WAR Projection Value in millions (year) Total Value of contract (millions)
1 30 $5.5 5.3 $29.0 $29
2 31 $5.8 4.8 $27.5 $57
3 32 $6.1 4.3 $25.9 $82
4 33 $6.4 3.6 $22.7 $105
5 34 $6.7 2.9 $19.2 $124
6 35 $7.0 2.2 $15.2 $140
7 36 $7.4 1.5 $10.8 $150
8 37 $7.7 0.8 $6.0 $156
By this approximation, the deal should work out well for the Mets. At the end of eight years, Wright is projected to accumulate roughly 25 WAR and those wins will be valued at around $156 million — an excess of $18 million from the actual contract. Note that if the rate of contract inflation is higher than 5% per year (which it very well could be after all is said and done given the growth of television deals) then the contract is even more team friendly.
Of course, the big question is will Wright actually perform to this projection: does he have 25 wins left in him through age 38?
One way to answer that question is to look at his comparables at third base. Since 1970, only 16 players have accumulated at least 30 WAR through their age-29 season (sorted by total WAR):
Name G PA BB% K% wRC+ Fld BsR WAR WAR/700 PA
George Brett 1232 5338 7.80% 6.00% 137 60 0.4 53.6 7.0
Mike Schmidt 1082 4506 15.30% 21.30% 141 87 4 52.8 8.2
Scott Rolen 1195 5122 11.70% 18.40% 131 98.2 5.2 50.6 6.9
David Wright 1262 5453 11.30% 18.50% 135 -13.1 16.1 47.0 6.0
Wade Boggs 871 3910 13.40% 6.50% 150 57 -4.3 45.7 8.2
Buddy Bell 1372 5758 7.10% 7.70% 108 135 -13.4 42.2 5.1
Chipper Jones 1092 4749 13.70% 12.80% 143 -24 5.1 41.3 6.1
Adrian Beltre 1561 6400 7.20% 15.80% 105 115.1 -3.1 40.7 4.5
Robin Ventura 1086 4636 12.70% 11.80% 118 78 -8.1 36.3 5.5
Ryan Zimmerman 990 4310 9.20% 17.00% 120 51.7 8.5 34.6 5.6
Eric Chavez 1251 5156 10.70% 16.80% 115 34.2 4.7 33.2 4.5
Paul Molitor 1009 4603 7.90% 11.20% 114 11 19.7 30.5 4.6
Matt Williams 1006 4042 5.80% 19.30% 117 61 -4.8 30.2 5.2
Travis Fryman 1240 5400 8.00% 19.60% 106 26 -1 30.1 3.9
Six of the 14 players are still active. Of the 17, Wright ranks fourth with 47 WAR and sixth in terms of WAR/700 plate appearances (6).
Looking over how the non-active members of the list performed from ages 30-38, there aren’t a whole lot of red flags:
Name G PA BB% K% ISO wRC+ Fld BsR WAR WAR/700 PA
Mike Schmidt 1276 5384 15% 17% 0.266 153 48 -4.2 58.2 7.6
Wade Boggs 1250 5606 14% 7% 0.107 126 52 -7.5 45.7 5.7
Paul Molitor 1673 7564 9.70% 9.60% 0.151 127 -4 26.9 44.6 4.1
George Brett 1173 5037 12% 9% 0.197 136 -12 2.2 37.1 5.2
Robin Ventura 974 3635 13% 17% 0.191 108 77.9 -5.2 24.9 4.8
Buddy Bell 1025 4251 10% 8% 0.134 108 41 -6.1 24.4 4.0
Matt Williams 846 3553 7% 16% 0.201 102 28.8 -1 17.1 3.4
Travis Fryman 455 1817 9% 17% 0.147 94 -19 1 3.8 1.5
Only two of the eight players listed above failed to accumulate at least 24 WAR after age 30; Matt Williams and Travis Fryman. Williams never played a full season again after his age-33 season and was a below league-average hitter when he did manage to take the field. Fryman made the initial list mostly because of early playing time; he played in 66 games as a 21-year old and then took over full time at age 22. Looking over his career, he never really had much of a peak in terms of overall performance, reflected in his 3.9 WAR/700 PAs before age 30. Furthermore, if you look at the two active players that have accumulated over 3000 plate appearances since turing 30, both have so far exceeded 24 WAR (Chipper Jones – 44 WAR; Scott Rolen – 24.4 WAR).
If Wright is to make good on this contract it will come down to how he ages offensively. He’s had some good years with the glove, but third base is a hard position play above average as players age. Of Wright’s comparables, half managed to post wRC+ of at least 125 for the later halves of their careers (min 3000 PAs). Wright has a career 135 wRC+ and has never been a below average hitter in any year.
This isn’t to say that Wright is a lock to make good on this contract. Dave Cameron brought up some valid concerns back in September. However, there is reason to believe that Wright’s 2013 is closer to his true talent level than his 2009-2011. After three straight seasons of poor plate discipline, Wright returned to being a selective hitter. This coincided with the altered dimensions to Citi Field, allowing Wright to return to his old approach of generally driving the ball up the middle and the other way.
All contract extensions are a bet, but for the Mets this is a solid one. They’ve locked up their franchise player for (basically) life, one that has demonstrated that he still has the ability to provide above average value at a difficult defensive position. This is will certainly help with the fan base and provide an anchor as they begin to cycle in new, younger players.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Initial reports have the deal at 7 years/$122 million. This is on top of next year’s $16 million team option, taking the total years and value of the contract to 8/$138.
It always pays to be skeptical of long-term deals for players on the wrong side of 30, simply because we know — on average — that performance only declines from this point on.
Let’s take a look at how this might play out for the club.
Using a basic 5/3/2 approach — where you weight last year’s WAR .5, the year prior .3, and the year prior to that .2 — Wright is roughly a “true” 5.3 win player entering 2013. We can take that and estimate his value and performance going forward using some techniques borrowed from Tom Tango (and Jeff Zimmerman). Assume that player’s lose roughly .5 WAR per year from ages 28-32, and then .7 WAR per year after 32. Further, assume that the price teams pay for wins increases 5% per year.
Here’s how the Wright deal projects:
Year Age $/W WAR Projection Value in millions (year) Total Value of contract (millions)
1 30 $5.5 5.3 $29.0 $29
2 31 $5.8 4.8 $27.5 $57
3 32 $6.1 4.3 $25.9 $82
4 33 $6.4 3.6 $22.7 $105
5 34 $6.7 2.9 $19.2 $124
6 35 $7.0 2.2 $15.2 $140
7 36 $7.4 1.5 $10.8 $150
8 37 $7.7 0.8 $6.0 $156
By this approximation, the deal should work out well for the Mets. At the end of eight years, Wright is projected to accumulate roughly 25 WAR and those wins will be valued at around $156 million — an excess of $18 million from the actual contract. Note that if the rate of contract inflation is higher than 5% per year (which it very well could be after all is said and done given the growth of television deals) then the contract is even more team friendly.
Of course, the big question is will Wright actually perform to this projection: does he have 25 wins left in him through age 38?
One way to answer that question is to look at his comparables at third base. Since 1970, only 16 players have accumulated at least 30 WAR through their age-29 season (sorted by total WAR):
Name G PA BB% K% wRC+ Fld BsR WAR WAR/700 PA
George Brett 1232 5338 7.80% 6.00% 137 60 0.4 53.6 7.0
Mike Schmidt 1082 4506 15.30% 21.30% 141 87 4 52.8 8.2
Scott Rolen 1195 5122 11.70% 18.40% 131 98.2 5.2 50.6 6.9
David Wright 1262 5453 11.30% 18.50% 135 -13.1 16.1 47.0 6.0
Wade Boggs 871 3910 13.40% 6.50% 150 57 -4.3 45.7 8.2
Buddy Bell 1372 5758 7.10% 7.70% 108 135 -13.4 42.2 5.1
Chipper Jones 1092 4749 13.70% 12.80% 143 -24 5.1 41.3 6.1
Adrian Beltre 1561 6400 7.20% 15.80% 105 115.1 -3.1 40.7 4.5
Robin Ventura 1086 4636 12.70% 11.80% 118 78 -8.1 36.3 5.5
Ryan Zimmerman 990 4310 9.20% 17.00% 120 51.7 8.5 34.6 5.6
Eric Chavez 1251 5156 10.70% 16.80% 115 34.2 4.7 33.2 4.5
Paul Molitor 1009 4603 7.90% 11.20% 114 11 19.7 30.5 4.6
Matt Williams 1006 4042 5.80% 19.30% 117 61 -4.8 30.2 5.2
Travis Fryman 1240 5400 8.00% 19.60% 106 26 -1 30.1 3.9
Six of the 14 players are still active. Of the 17, Wright ranks fourth with 47 WAR and sixth in terms of WAR/700 plate appearances (6).
Looking over how the non-active members of the list performed from ages 30-38, there aren’t a whole lot of red flags:
Name G PA BB% K% ISO wRC+ Fld BsR WAR WAR/700 PA
Mike Schmidt 1276 5384 15% 17% 0.266 153 48 -4.2 58.2 7.6
Wade Boggs 1250 5606 14% 7% 0.107 126 52 -7.5 45.7 5.7
Paul Molitor 1673 7564 9.70% 9.60% 0.151 127 -4 26.9 44.6 4.1
George Brett 1173 5037 12% 9% 0.197 136 -12 2.2 37.1 5.2
Robin Ventura 974 3635 13% 17% 0.191 108 77.9 -5.2 24.9 4.8
Buddy Bell 1025 4251 10% 8% 0.134 108 41 -6.1 24.4 4.0
Matt Williams 846 3553 7% 16% 0.201 102 28.8 -1 17.1 3.4
Travis Fryman 455 1817 9% 17% 0.147 94 -19 1 3.8 1.5
Only two of the eight players listed above failed to accumulate at least 24 WAR after age 30; Matt Williams and Travis Fryman. Williams never played a full season again after his age-33 season and was a below league-average hitter when he did manage to take the field. Fryman made the initial list mostly because of early playing time; he played in 66 games as a 21-year old and then took over full time at age 22. Looking over his career, he never really had much of a peak in terms of overall performance, reflected in his 3.9 WAR/700 PAs before age 30. Furthermore, if you look at the two active players that have accumulated over 3000 plate appearances since turing 30, both have so far exceeded 24 WAR (Chipper Jones – 44 WAR; Scott Rolen – 24.4 WAR).
If Wright is to make good on this contract it will come down to how he ages offensively. He’s had some good years with the glove, but third base is a hard position play above average as players age. Of Wright’s comparables, half managed to post wRC+ of at least 125 for the later halves of their careers (min 3000 PAs). Wright has a career 135 wRC+ and has never been a below average hitter in any year.
This isn’t to say that Wright is a lock to make good on this contract. Dave Cameron brought up some valid concerns back in September. However, there is reason to believe that Wright’s 2013 is closer to his true talent level than his 2009-2011. After three straight seasons of poor plate discipline, Wright returned to being a selective hitter. This coincided with the altered dimensions to Citi Field, allowing Wright to return to his old approach of generally driving the ball up the middle and the other way.
All contract extensions are a bet, but for the Mets this is a solid one. They’ve locked up their franchise player for (basically) life, one that has demonstrated that he still has the ability to provide above average value at a difficult defensive position. This is will certainly help with the fan base and provide an anchor as they begin to cycle in new, younger players.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Russell Martin Bringing New Element to Pirates Baseball.
Russell Martin was a Yankee, and then Russell Martin became a free agent. Russell Martin is a catcher, and once he became a free agent, the Yankees were in need of a catcher. Russell Martin is pretty good, and he wasn’t looking to break the bank with a contract. Russell Martin is 29. Martin seemed like an excellent candidate to re-sign, and indeed, there were indications that the Yankees were making Martin a priority. Then Thursday, Martin signed a two-year deal with the Pirates. It’s worth just $17 million, but the Yankees reportedly weren’t interested in matching that price. While the Pirates had been mentioned as a serious suitor in recent days, it’s an undeniable surprise to see the Yankees essentially get priced out for something they could really use.
The Yankees, as has been mentioned several times over, are trying to avoid paying luxury-tax penalties in 2014, meaning they’ve placed a particular emphasis on one-year contracts. In that light, staying away from Martin makes some sense, but the Yankees still need a catcher, and guys like A.J. Pierzynski and Mike Napoli are unlikely to sign for one season. Surely the Yankees will figure something out, and this isn’t going to make or break their whole next year, but from the outside, this is a little perplexing.
In a way, this should be treated like the Dan Haren situation in Anaheim. The way the Angels just let Haren go throws up some red flags, and it isn’t irrelevant that the Yankees didn’t want to pay Russell Martin $17 million. That’s meaningful information, as you’d figure the Yankees know more about Martin than anyone else. If, as written, the Yankees are concerned that Martin is declining, maybe he’s really declining. Maybe this isn’t a good bet for the Pirates, based on what the Yankees know.
But we’re talking about $8.5 million a season, for two seasons, after which Martin will be 31. We don’t even have to get too analytical here. The last two years, Martin has posted a 100 wRC+, and a 95 wRC+. The league-average catcher has posted a 96 wRC+, and another 96 wRC+. Martin’s been durable. He’s thrown out an average rate of would-be base-stealers. He’s been more or less average at blocking pitches. In fairness, we can’t really evaluate Martin’s game-calling. What we can say is that, between 2011-2012, 304 players batted at least 500 times. Martin’s .238 BABIP ranks fourth-lowest. That could be a sign of decline, or that could be a sign of a guy who’s better than his raw results. Martin’s career BABIP is .286. Even at a woeful .222 last season, Martin still drew walks and hit for power.
Without getting too in-depth, the Martin contract seems perfectly fair. And we’re only now going to talk about catcher pitch-framing. After Mike Fast’s illuminating research, this part is basically obligatory whenever discussing a backstop. It’s amazing how quickly considering pitch-framing results became second nature. The linked Fast article was published late in 2011; Matthew Carruth ran similar research through 2012. Carruth’s findings match up well with Fast’s.
Jose Molina is the face of the pro-pitch-framing movement, if that’s a thing. Fast made it clear in 2011 that Jose Molina is amazing; subsequently, in 2012, dozens of articles were written about how Jose Molina is amazing (at catching pitches). Joe Maddon recently talked about Molina’s pitch-framing value in an interview. But while the numbers show that Molina is outstanding, other guys are great, and Russell Martin is among them. To the extent that you believe this research is capturing signal instead of just noise, Martin comes out as a hell of a pitch-framer.
Carruth provided for me numbers going back to 2007. If you believe them, Martin’s pitch-framing value has bottomed out at 11 runs above average, and maxed out at 31. Less important than the specific numbers is the general message — Martin seems to be a consistently, sustainably excellent pitch-framer. There’s little reason to believe that’ll erode considerably with age, and while it might not all be Martin, a lot of it is probably Martin, and that adds to his value. It adds kind of a lot to his value.
Leaving pitch-framing out, Martin’s contract seems perfectly reasonable. Including pitch-framing, it seems like a potential bargain. Martin might add a full win with his pitch-framing alone, and the Pirates aren’t paying him for a whole lot of wins. One wonders if this might not be an indication that baseball is reluctant to embrace the pitch-framing research. The Rays signed Jose Molina for dirt cheap, and now the Yankees have let a valuable catcher get away to Pittsburgh. Martin seems like he should’ve gotten a bigger commitment, unless teams don’t trust the framing numbers, or unless Martin is more broken down than I think. The research might be too new for many teams to act upon.
I don’t know if the Pirates acted upon it. I don’t know if the Pirates signed Martin in large part because of his pitch-framing. The Pirates really just needed a catcher. But this stands to be one hell of a change, deliberate or not. Russell Martin is unlike the Pirates’ recent catchers.
I don’t have full-team leaderboards, but for at least two years, the Pirates have been miserable at pitch-framing. Possibly the most miserable. By Carruth’s numbers, in 2012, the Pirates came out 198 strikes below average. In 2011, they came out 206 strikes below average. Ryan Doumit was bad, Rod Barajas was bad, and Michael McKenry was bad. In 2012, on his own, Russell Martin came out 179 strikes above average. In 2011, on his own, Martin came out 184 strikes above average. As bad as the Pirates’ backstops have been, Martin has been that good, and that makes a meaningful difference. Even a strike a game makes a meaningful difference, and we’re looking at more than one strike a game.
What I don’t want to do is take this too far. Carruth’s research is still in development, and there’s a lot we still don’t know about this player trait in terms of its value. I’d suggest not paying too much attention to specific numbers. But, generally, the numbers suggest the Pirates had some lousy pitch-framers. The numbers suggest the Pirates just acquired a really great pitch-framer. That should make the pitching staff look better, and that should make the team look better. Instead of being one of the league’s worst in this department, the Pirates might now become one of the league’s best, and all it took was one modest free-agent contract.
I’m open to the idea that Russell Martin is declining, that his BABIP is an indicator of something other than luck. I’m open to the idea that Russell Martin might not be so durable going forward. As a righty, he’s going to have a tough time hitting for power in Pittsburgh. That ballpark’s effect on hitters is underrated. But I’ve studied the pitch-framing data, and unless it’s completely wrong, Martin doesn’t have to be that good a hitter to be a valuable player. He helps himself by helping others — specifically, his pitchers, around the borders of the strike zone. Pittsburgh hasn’t had a guy like this. Pittsburgh might come to love a guy like this.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Yankees, as has been mentioned several times over, are trying to avoid paying luxury-tax penalties in 2014, meaning they’ve placed a particular emphasis on one-year contracts. In that light, staying away from Martin makes some sense, but the Yankees still need a catcher, and guys like A.J. Pierzynski and Mike Napoli are unlikely to sign for one season. Surely the Yankees will figure something out, and this isn’t going to make or break their whole next year, but from the outside, this is a little perplexing.
In a way, this should be treated like the Dan Haren situation in Anaheim. The way the Angels just let Haren go throws up some red flags, and it isn’t irrelevant that the Yankees didn’t want to pay Russell Martin $17 million. That’s meaningful information, as you’d figure the Yankees know more about Martin than anyone else. If, as written, the Yankees are concerned that Martin is declining, maybe he’s really declining. Maybe this isn’t a good bet for the Pirates, based on what the Yankees know.
But we’re talking about $8.5 million a season, for two seasons, after which Martin will be 31. We don’t even have to get too analytical here. The last two years, Martin has posted a 100 wRC+, and a 95 wRC+. The league-average catcher has posted a 96 wRC+, and another 96 wRC+. Martin’s been durable. He’s thrown out an average rate of would-be base-stealers. He’s been more or less average at blocking pitches. In fairness, we can’t really evaluate Martin’s game-calling. What we can say is that, between 2011-2012, 304 players batted at least 500 times. Martin’s .238 BABIP ranks fourth-lowest. That could be a sign of decline, or that could be a sign of a guy who’s better than his raw results. Martin’s career BABIP is .286. Even at a woeful .222 last season, Martin still drew walks and hit for power.
Without getting too in-depth, the Martin contract seems perfectly fair. And we’re only now going to talk about catcher pitch-framing. After Mike Fast’s illuminating research, this part is basically obligatory whenever discussing a backstop. It’s amazing how quickly considering pitch-framing results became second nature. The linked Fast article was published late in 2011; Matthew Carruth ran similar research through 2012. Carruth’s findings match up well with Fast’s.
Jose Molina is the face of the pro-pitch-framing movement, if that’s a thing. Fast made it clear in 2011 that Jose Molina is amazing; subsequently, in 2012, dozens of articles were written about how Jose Molina is amazing (at catching pitches). Joe Maddon recently talked about Molina’s pitch-framing value in an interview. But while the numbers show that Molina is outstanding, other guys are great, and Russell Martin is among them. To the extent that you believe this research is capturing signal instead of just noise, Martin comes out as a hell of a pitch-framer.
Carruth provided for me numbers going back to 2007. If you believe them, Martin’s pitch-framing value has bottomed out at 11 runs above average, and maxed out at 31. Less important than the specific numbers is the general message — Martin seems to be a consistently, sustainably excellent pitch-framer. There’s little reason to believe that’ll erode considerably with age, and while it might not all be Martin, a lot of it is probably Martin, and that adds to his value. It adds kind of a lot to his value.
Leaving pitch-framing out, Martin’s contract seems perfectly reasonable. Including pitch-framing, it seems like a potential bargain. Martin might add a full win with his pitch-framing alone, and the Pirates aren’t paying him for a whole lot of wins. One wonders if this might not be an indication that baseball is reluctant to embrace the pitch-framing research. The Rays signed Jose Molina for dirt cheap, and now the Yankees have let a valuable catcher get away to Pittsburgh. Martin seems like he should’ve gotten a bigger commitment, unless teams don’t trust the framing numbers, or unless Martin is more broken down than I think. The research might be too new for many teams to act upon.
I don’t know if the Pirates acted upon it. I don’t know if the Pirates signed Martin in large part because of his pitch-framing. The Pirates really just needed a catcher. But this stands to be one hell of a change, deliberate or not. Russell Martin is unlike the Pirates’ recent catchers.
I don’t have full-team leaderboards, but for at least two years, the Pirates have been miserable at pitch-framing. Possibly the most miserable. By Carruth’s numbers, in 2012, the Pirates came out 198 strikes below average. In 2011, they came out 206 strikes below average. Ryan Doumit was bad, Rod Barajas was bad, and Michael McKenry was bad. In 2012, on his own, Russell Martin came out 179 strikes above average. In 2011, on his own, Martin came out 184 strikes above average. As bad as the Pirates’ backstops have been, Martin has been that good, and that makes a meaningful difference. Even a strike a game makes a meaningful difference, and we’re looking at more than one strike a game.
What I don’t want to do is take this too far. Carruth’s research is still in development, and there’s a lot we still don’t know about this player trait in terms of its value. I’d suggest not paying too much attention to specific numbers. But, generally, the numbers suggest the Pirates had some lousy pitch-framers. The numbers suggest the Pirates just acquired a really great pitch-framer. That should make the pitching staff look better, and that should make the team look better. Instead of being one of the league’s worst in this department, the Pirates might now become one of the league’s best, and all it took was one modest free-agent contract.
I’m open to the idea that Russell Martin is declining, that his BABIP is an indicator of something other than luck. I’m open to the idea that Russell Martin might not be so durable going forward. As a righty, he’s going to have a tough time hitting for power in Pittsburgh. That ballpark’s effect on hitters is underrated. But I’ve studied the pitch-framing data, and unless it’s completely wrong, Martin doesn’t have to be that good a hitter to be a valuable player. He helps himself by helping others — specifically, his pitchers, around the borders of the strike zone. Pittsburgh hasn’t had a guy like this. Pittsburgh might come to love a guy like this.
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Nationals Steal Denard Span From Twins.
Another day, another NL East team solves their center field problem. Yesterday, the Braves spent $75 million to sign B.J. Upton to a contract that is perfectly fair and should provide them with a quality player going forward. Today, the Nationals spent $21 million — and, to be fair, a solid pitching prospect — and got a similarly valuable player in Denard Span. Advantage, Nationals.
Similarly valuable doesn’t mean similar, of course. The similarities between Span and Upton pretty much end after you note that they’re both athletic center fielders. Upton derives a lot of value from hitting for power, while Span has hit nine home runs in the last three years combined. Span derives most of his value from making contact and running, using his speed to help him get on base, score runs, and save them in the outfield. And yet, at the end of the day, they end up with results that are about equally effective at winning games.
For his career, Upton has a 107 wRC+ while Span checks in at 105. Interestingly, both players produced a wRC+ in 2012 that was an exact match for their own career average. Span struggled a bit the previous couple of years — and his issues were compounded with a mid-summer concussion that ended up costing him about half of the 2011 — but he rebounded nicely last year and showed some of the production that made him such a dynamic player earlier in his career.
It’s unlikely that Span posts the 120 wRC+ from his first couple of years in the big leagues, but he’s fast enough and hits enough ground balls that that an above average BABIP should probably be expected. His .320 career mark is probably not far off his true talent level, but one year spikes up to .340 or .350 shouldn’t be unexpected, and Span could be a legitimate offensive force in years where the ball finds the hole more often than others. Having a skillset that averages out to Shane Victorino and peaks as Carl Crawford makes Span a pretty nifty player, and one who is instantly a big upgrade for the Nationals.
For his career, Span has averaged +3.6 WAR per 600 plate appearances. Even if you regress his defense a bit because he’ll turn 29 during spring training, Span looks like a good bet to be +3 win player next year, making him a dramatic upgrade over Mike Morse. With Span being flanked by Jayson Werth and Bryce Harper in the outfield, the Nationals are going to boast of the rangiest outfields in the sport, and now the team has the option of shifting Morse to first base or trading him if they end up re-signing Adam LaRoche. Span is exactly the kind of player that the Nationals have been searching for, and is a perfect fit for their roster.
To be honest, I’m a bit surprised at the price at which Minnesota was willing to sell Span off. I get that they’re rebuilding and they feel like Ben Revere can handle center field in the short term, but Span is the kind of player they could have kept as they rebuilt. They had him under contract for his age 29-31 seasons at a grand total of $21 million, and only the first two years and $12 million was guaranteed. 3/21 for a +3 win player in his prime is a significant value, and the Twins sold him off for an A-ball pitching prospect who may end up in relief.
I don’t mean to downplay Meyer’s value as a prospect, as any 6’9 kid who throws in the upper 90s and throws a wipeout slider is a legitimately interesting return, but no one is yet certain that he’s going to stick in the rotation long term. He had a successful debut season between the South Atlantic and Carolina Leagues, but he was a 22-year-old college arm facing batters with significantly less experience. He’s yet to get to Double-A, and the questions about his mechanics haven’t yet been entirely answered. There’s some real upside here, but there’s also a chance that the command regresses and he ends up as a closer rather than a starter.
Meyer’s a bit of a lottery ticket. Legitimate upside, legitimate concerns about his future role, and at least another year of development before he’s ready to contribute in Minnesota. Meyer’s a Top 100 prospect, and if you think he’ll stick as a starter, probably a Top 50 guy. The Twins got a real talent back in return for Span, but it’s a talent with too many question marks to be the piece they’re getting back in return for a three win player under team control at a fraction of his market price.
For the Nationals, this is a huge win. Span represents a serious upgrade and doesn’t take away much of their 2013 budget, leaving them enough room to make another big move to further upgrade the roster. With their center field hole filled and only $5 million spent next year to do it, they have the flexibility to address other areas that could use improvement. If Meyer turns into an ace, they might regret this deal some day, but the odds of that are low enough that this was a risk worth taking. Especially given their proximity to a championship and Meyer’s timeline for helping the big league club.
For the Twins, they get a boom-or-bust prospect and lose one of their best players. They don’t really free up much salary to improve the roster already in place, so this is a clear win-later kind of move. Josh Willingham is clearly next on the chopping block, as the Twins are likely to make more moves to improve their future. Hopefully they get more back for him than they did for Span, though, because collecting lottery ticket pitching prospects isn’t a great way to rebuild.
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Similarly valuable doesn’t mean similar, of course. The similarities between Span and Upton pretty much end after you note that they’re both athletic center fielders. Upton derives a lot of value from hitting for power, while Span has hit nine home runs in the last three years combined. Span derives most of his value from making contact and running, using his speed to help him get on base, score runs, and save them in the outfield. And yet, at the end of the day, they end up with results that are about equally effective at winning games.
For his career, Upton has a 107 wRC+ while Span checks in at 105. Interestingly, both players produced a wRC+ in 2012 that was an exact match for their own career average. Span struggled a bit the previous couple of years — and his issues were compounded with a mid-summer concussion that ended up costing him about half of the 2011 — but he rebounded nicely last year and showed some of the production that made him such a dynamic player earlier in his career.
It’s unlikely that Span posts the 120 wRC+ from his first couple of years in the big leagues, but he’s fast enough and hits enough ground balls that that an above average BABIP should probably be expected. His .320 career mark is probably not far off his true talent level, but one year spikes up to .340 or .350 shouldn’t be unexpected, and Span could be a legitimate offensive force in years where the ball finds the hole more often than others. Having a skillset that averages out to Shane Victorino and peaks as Carl Crawford makes Span a pretty nifty player, and one who is instantly a big upgrade for the Nationals.
For his career, Span has averaged +3.6 WAR per 600 plate appearances. Even if you regress his defense a bit because he’ll turn 29 during spring training, Span looks like a good bet to be +3 win player next year, making him a dramatic upgrade over Mike Morse. With Span being flanked by Jayson Werth and Bryce Harper in the outfield, the Nationals are going to boast of the rangiest outfields in the sport, and now the team has the option of shifting Morse to first base or trading him if they end up re-signing Adam LaRoche. Span is exactly the kind of player that the Nationals have been searching for, and is a perfect fit for their roster.
To be honest, I’m a bit surprised at the price at which Minnesota was willing to sell Span off. I get that they’re rebuilding and they feel like Ben Revere can handle center field in the short term, but Span is the kind of player they could have kept as they rebuilt. They had him under contract for his age 29-31 seasons at a grand total of $21 million, and only the first two years and $12 million was guaranteed. 3/21 for a +3 win player in his prime is a significant value, and the Twins sold him off for an A-ball pitching prospect who may end up in relief.
I don’t mean to downplay Meyer’s value as a prospect, as any 6’9 kid who throws in the upper 90s and throws a wipeout slider is a legitimately interesting return, but no one is yet certain that he’s going to stick in the rotation long term. He had a successful debut season between the South Atlantic and Carolina Leagues, but he was a 22-year-old college arm facing batters with significantly less experience. He’s yet to get to Double-A, and the questions about his mechanics haven’t yet been entirely answered. There’s some real upside here, but there’s also a chance that the command regresses and he ends up as a closer rather than a starter.
Meyer’s a bit of a lottery ticket. Legitimate upside, legitimate concerns about his future role, and at least another year of development before he’s ready to contribute in Minnesota. Meyer’s a Top 100 prospect, and if you think he’ll stick as a starter, probably a Top 50 guy. The Twins got a real talent back in return for Span, but it’s a talent with too many question marks to be the piece they’re getting back in return for a three win player under team control at a fraction of his market price.
For the Nationals, this is a huge win. Span represents a serious upgrade and doesn’t take away much of their 2013 budget, leaving them enough room to make another big move to further upgrade the roster. With their center field hole filled and only $5 million spent next year to do it, they have the flexibility to address other areas that could use improvement. If Meyer turns into an ace, they might regret this deal some day, but the odds of that are low enough that this was a risk worth taking. Especially given their proximity to a championship and Meyer’s timeline for helping the big league club.
For the Twins, they get a boom-or-bust prospect and lose one of their best players. They don’t really free up much salary to improve the roster already in place, so this is a clear win-later kind of move. Josh Willingham is clearly next on the chopping block, as the Twins are likely to make more moves to improve their future. Hopefully they get more back for him than they did for Span, though, because collecting lottery ticket pitching prospects isn’t a great way to rebuild.
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Forgot to say RIP to Marvin Miller.
Marvin Miller’s Legacy, and the Decline of Labor.
[O]ne thing a trade union leader learns to do is how to count votes in advance. Whenever I took one look at what I was faced with, it was obvious to me it was not gonna happen…
[General Sherman] basically said, ‘I don’t want to be president. If I’m nominated I will not campaign for the presidency. If despite that I’m elected, I will not serve.’ Without comparing myself to General Sherman, that’s my feeling. If considered and elected, I will not appear for the induction if I’m alive. If they proceed to try to do this posthumously, my family is prepared to deal with that…
What [Groucho Marx] said was words to the effect of, ‘I don’t want to be part of any organization that would have me as a member.’ Between a great comedian and a great general, you have my sentiments.
— Interview with Marvin Miller, 2008, after asking the Hall of Fame to stop nominating him
Since Marvin Miller’s death, there has been a small but respectful chorus of voices calling for Miller’s enshrinement in the Hall of Fame, in recognition of his titanic legacy in the game. Bud Selig himself made the unenthusiastic case: “The criteria for non-playing personnel is the impact they made on the sport. Therefore Marvin Miller should be in the Hall of Fame on that basis.”
The case against Marvin Miller is this: as the architect of the MLBPA, arguably the most powerful labor union in the country, Miller laid the groundwork for players to be paid hundreds of millions of dollars. The case for Marvin Miller is this: as one of the most successful labor leaders in the country, Miller obtained economic freedom for thousands of men whose salaries had previously shackled them with effective indentured servitude.
The problem with appreciating Marvin Miller’s legacy is that the United States has changed. Miller was born in 1917, the year that the United States entered World War I and the Soviet Union was formed. These twin events shaped the contours of the century to come. The mechanization required for two world wars helped build the grand American industrial postwar manufacturing economy, and ideological warfare with Communists helped to politically poison the rhetoric of organized labor.
Marvin Miller was not a baseball man. He was a labor economist, organizer, and leader, and he was one of the most successful labor leaders in American history. Journalist Studs Terkel was the author of Working, a classic 1974 collection of interviews with people about their jobs, and he writes in the foreword to Miller’s autobiography, “Marvin Miller, I suspect, is the most effective union organizer since John L. Lewis.” Just for perspective, Lewis helped found the AFL-CIO; Miller founded the baseball players’ union.
But any description of Miller’s achievements usually crystallizes around baseball’s rapidly expanding player salaries, which largely resulted from Miller’s victories to obtain free agency and defeat collusion.
How much have baseball salaries inflated? According to average salary data from 1964 to 2002 that I’ve taken from Michael Haupert’s “The Economic History of Major League Baseball,” real dollar average salaries appear to have increased about 7% a year from the 1964 to 1975 seasons. In the 1975 offseason, the reserve clause was struck down, ushering in the era of free agency. From 1976 to 1991, average salaries increased about 40% a year. From 1992 to 2002, they increased about 10% a year.
Miller’s success came out of the pockets of greedy owners who no doubt would prefer to still pay players the salaries that they paid in the 1970s. Salaries have increased much faster than the rate of inflation, as Jesse Wolfersberger has written, but that’s not entirely Miller’s fault. As Tim Marchman notes at Slate, Miller credited the owners’ shortsightedness, writing:
In the wake of the Messersmith decision it dawned on me, as a terrifying possibility, that the owners might suddenly wake up one day and realize that yearly free agency was the best possible thing for them; that is, if all players became free agents at the end of the year, the market would be flooded, and salaries would be held down. It wouldn’t so much be a matter of the teams bidding against one another for one player as of players competing against each other. … What would we do, I wondered, if just one of the owners was smart enough to figure out the money they would save if all players became free agents every year?
Through greed and ineptitude, they never figured it out, and we’ve been living in the world that Marvin wrought for four decades now. Marvin Miller’s first victory came in the 1972 strike, the first players’ strike in baseball history, when the players struck for fourteen days in April and won better pensions and the right to salary arbitration from a third-party arbitrator. As a result of that, as Fred Down of UPI wrote, Miller became “the strongest executive baseball has known since its first commissioner, Judge Kenesaw Mountain Landis.”
Miller got his workers their paydays, and they should forever be grateful. But it is harder for fans to appreciate what Miller did. After all, the players’ union struck in 1972, and it struck again in 1980, 1981, 1985, and 1994 — which was the first and last time that anyone other than Marvin Miller led the players out on strike. The players may have had a justified grievance, but it was ultimately the fans who suffered, and when the players got their payday, it was not the fans who benefited.
Miller’s New York Times obituary pointed to a quote from Malcolm Gladwell, who wrote: “Miller’s goal was to get his ballplayers to think like steelworkers—to persuade members of the professional class to learn from members of the working class.”
But America’s economy is different today than it was when Marvin Miller cut his teeth with the United Steelworkers union. The United States is no longer a manufacturing-based economy, it’s a service-based economy, and workers are paid less for what they make and more for what they do and even who they are. The baseball players’ union is undeniably strong, but few other unions are. Indeed, nearly all of the strongest unions in the country other than baseball players are now government workers, from clerical staff to teachers.
And then there is the sheer scale of the dollars. Many who struggle through a slow economy have trouble seeing how any other worker could be paid hundreds of millions of dollars — though I must tread lightly, because to suggest that it is difficult to understand can tread dangerously close to “class warfare” for some. That was the kernel at the heart of the “We are the 99%” meme.
Miller had enormous success in unionizing baseball players to take advantage of the economic surplus generated by their own scarce talent, but the American economy is far less unionized today than it was when he first took the job with the Players Association, as the smaller workplaces that have emerged in the years since the decline in manufacturing have not been as likely to be unionized as the massive factories were before them.
That isn’t Miller’s fault, but it circumscribes his legacy. John L. Lewis helped found the AFL-CIO, a dominant force in American labor for much of the 20th century. Lewis’s influence was felt in most of the largest industries in the country; in those industries, unions were the norm. Now, they are the exception, and Miller’s crowning achievement, the Players Association, is a relic of a former era little loved by fans or by owners.
In order to advocate best for its members, and per the conventions of collective bargaining, the Players Association doggedly hews to the strict letter of contracts — even when doing so infuriates ownership and many members of the public, as it did in the case of Ryan Braun’s PED test. The union is a finely tuned machine that functions to protect its players’ rights and increase their salaries, to the extent that baseball players have better salaries and better workplace protection than just about any other workers in the country.
It is unlikely that labor will return to its former state. As Nicco Mele, a professor of mine, writes in his upcoming book The End of Big, more people than ever before are going into business solo. The average size of workplaces is declining, which means that collective bargaining will continue to decline in use.
Marvin Miller spent his life advocating for workers’ rights, and he did so through the vehicle of unions. In the 21st century, workers will need different vehicles for advocacy. But in the meantime, baseball players will continue to doggedly make a lot more than the rest of us. They deserve it — they’re incredibly good and we’re willing to pay. Marvin Miller got them what they deserved. However, before baseball fans can fully to appreciate his achievement, others will need to pick up where he left off, throughout the rest of the economy. That will be a far better tribute than a Hall of Fame vote.
[General Sherman] basically said, ‘I don’t want to be president. If I’m nominated I will not campaign for the presidency. If despite that I’m elected, I will not serve.’ Without comparing myself to General Sherman, that’s my feeling. If considered and elected, I will not appear for the induction if I’m alive. If they proceed to try to do this posthumously, my family is prepared to deal with that…
What [Groucho Marx] said was words to the effect of, ‘I don’t want to be part of any organization that would have me as a member.’ Between a great comedian and a great general, you have my sentiments.
— Interview with Marvin Miller, 2008, after asking the Hall of Fame to stop nominating him
Since Marvin Miller’s death, there has been a small but respectful chorus of voices calling for Miller’s enshrinement in the Hall of Fame, in recognition of his titanic legacy in the game. Bud Selig himself made the unenthusiastic case: “The criteria for non-playing personnel is the impact they made on the sport. Therefore Marvin Miller should be in the Hall of Fame on that basis.”
The case against Marvin Miller is this: as the architect of the MLBPA, arguably the most powerful labor union in the country, Miller laid the groundwork for players to be paid hundreds of millions of dollars. The case for Marvin Miller is this: as one of the most successful labor leaders in the country, Miller obtained economic freedom for thousands of men whose salaries had previously shackled them with effective indentured servitude.
The problem with appreciating Marvin Miller’s legacy is that the United States has changed. Miller was born in 1917, the year that the United States entered World War I and the Soviet Union was formed. These twin events shaped the contours of the century to come. The mechanization required for two world wars helped build the grand American industrial postwar manufacturing economy, and ideological warfare with Communists helped to politically poison the rhetoric of organized labor.
Marvin Miller was not a baseball man. He was a labor economist, organizer, and leader, and he was one of the most successful labor leaders in American history. Journalist Studs Terkel was the author of Working, a classic 1974 collection of interviews with people about their jobs, and he writes in the foreword to Miller’s autobiography, “Marvin Miller, I suspect, is the most effective union organizer since John L. Lewis.” Just for perspective, Lewis helped found the AFL-CIO; Miller founded the baseball players’ union.
But any description of Miller’s achievements usually crystallizes around baseball’s rapidly expanding player salaries, which largely resulted from Miller’s victories to obtain free agency and defeat collusion.
How much have baseball salaries inflated? According to average salary data from 1964 to 2002 that I’ve taken from Michael Haupert’s “The Economic History of Major League Baseball,” real dollar average salaries appear to have increased about 7% a year from the 1964 to 1975 seasons. In the 1975 offseason, the reserve clause was struck down, ushering in the era of free agency. From 1976 to 1991, average salaries increased about 40% a year. From 1992 to 2002, they increased about 10% a year.
Miller’s success came out of the pockets of greedy owners who no doubt would prefer to still pay players the salaries that they paid in the 1970s. Salaries have increased much faster than the rate of inflation, as Jesse Wolfersberger has written, but that’s not entirely Miller’s fault. As Tim Marchman notes at Slate, Miller credited the owners’ shortsightedness, writing:
In the wake of the Messersmith decision it dawned on me, as a terrifying possibility, that the owners might suddenly wake up one day and realize that yearly free agency was the best possible thing for them; that is, if all players became free agents at the end of the year, the market would be flooded, and salaries would be held down. It wouldn’t so much be a matter of the teams bidding against one another for one player as of players competing against each other. … What would we do, I wondered, if just one of the owners was smart enough to figure out the money they would save if all players became free agents every year?
Through greed and ineptitude, they never figured it out, and we’ve been living in the world that Marvin wrought for four decades now. Marvin Miller’s first victory came in the 1972 strike, the first players’ strike in baseball history, when the players struck for fourteen days in April and won better pensions and the right to salary arbitration from a third-party arbitrator. As a result of that, as Fred Down of UPI wrote, Miller became “the strongest executive baseball has known since its first commissioner, Judge Kenesaw Mountain Landis.”
Miller got his workers their paydays, and they should forever be grateful. But it is harder for fans to appreciate what Miller did. After all, the players’ union struck in 1972, and it struck again in 1980, 1981, 1985, and 1994 — which was the first and last time that anyone other than Marvin Miller led the players out on strike. The players may have had a justified grievance, but it was ultimately the fans who suffered, and when the players got their payday, it was not the fans who benefited.
Miller’s New York Times obituary pointed to a quote from Malcolm Gladwell, who wrote: “Miller’s goal was to get his ballplayers to think like steelworkers—to persuade members of the professional class to learn from members of the working class.”
But America’s economy is different today than it was when Marvin Miller cut his teeth with the United Steelworkers union. The United States is no longer a manufacturing-based economy, it’s a service-based economy, and workers are paid less for what they make and more for what they do and even who they are. The baseball players’ union is undeniably strong, but few other unions are. Indeed, nearly all of the strongest unions in the country other than baseball players are now government workers, from clerical staff to teachers.
And then there is the sheer scale of the dollars. Many who struggle through a slow economy have trouble seeing how any other worker could be paid hundreds of millions of dollars — though I must tread lightly, because to suggest that it is difficult to understand can tread dangerously close to “class warfare” for some. That was the kernel at the heart of the “We are the 99%” meme.
Miller had enormous success in unionizing baseball players to take advantage of the economic surplus generated by their own scarce talent, but the American economy is far less unionized today than it was when he first took the job with the Players Association, as the smaller workplaces that have emerged in the years since the decline in manufacturing have not been as likely to be unionized as the massive factories were before them.
That isn’t Miller’s fault, but it circumscribes his legacy. John L. Lewis helped found the AFL-CIO, a dominant force in American labor for much of the 20th century. Lewis’s influence was felt in most of the largest industries in the country; in those industries, unions were the norm. Now, they are the exception, and Miller’s crowning achievement, the Players Association, is a relic of a former era little loved by fans or by owners.
In order to advocate best for its members, and per the conventions of collective bargaining, the Players Association doggedly hews to the strict letter of contracts — even when doing so infuriates ownership and many members of the public, as it did in the case of Ryan Braun’s PED test. The union is a finely tuned machine that functions to protect its players’ rights and increase their salaries, to the extent that baseball players have better salaries and better workplace protection than just about any other workers in the country.
It is unlikely that labor will return to its former state. As Nicco Mele, a professor of mine, writes in his upcoming book The End of Big, more people than ever before are going into business solo. The average size of workplaces is declining, which means that collective bargaining will continue to decline in use.
Marvin Miller spent his life advocating for workers’ rights, and he did so through the vehicle of unions. In the 21st century, workers will need different vehicles for advocacy. But in the meantime, baseball players will continue to doggedly make a lot more than the rest of us. They deserve it — they’re incredibly good and we’re willing to pay. Marvin Miller got them what they deserved. However, before baseball fans can fully to appreciate his achievement, others will need to pick up where he left off, throughout the rest of the economy. That will be a far better tribute than a Hall of Fame vote.
It’s Time To Expand HOF Ballots.
The BBWAA released the 2013 Hall of Fame ballots yesterday, and in a related story, writers from around the country made it clear that they weren’t going to vote for players that have been implicated in PED usage. Some even find it an annual tradition to be celebrated.
Oh, the joy I will have snubbing Sosa, Bonds and Clemens (plus McGwire and Palmeiro, natch) on my HoF ballot.
— Philip Hersh (@olyphil) November 28, 2012
Regardless of where you stand on the issue of PEDs and the Hall of Fame — and hopefully we can all agree that reasonable people can disagree on this — it should be pretty obvious that Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens are not getting inducted into Cooperstown this year. Jeff Bagwell probably won’t either. The contingent of voters who want to keep these guys out is large enough to block them from getting 75% of the vote this year, and probably for the foreseeable future.
However, the contingent who wants them to be voted in based on their on field accomplishments is large enough to keep them on the ballot. Even inferior performers with ties to PEDs — such as Mark McGwire and Rafael Palmeiro — have a large enough base of support that they remain on the ballot. And so, as the Hall of Fame ballots go forward, they’re going to run into a significant overcrowding problem. They might be there already.
The official ballot mailed to voters lists spaces for 10 names. That is the maximum amount of numbers that any voter can support, regardless of how many players he thinks should be enshrined. And, it’s quite clear that for many voters, 10 spots are not enough.
Looking at HOF ballot, I counted 19 players for whom you could make a pretty good case, if you take PEDs out of equation.Can vote for 10
— Larry Stone (@StoneLarry) November 28, 2012
There are at least 14 players on this year’s Hall of Fame ballot I would love to see in the Hall.
— Joe Posnanski (@JPosnanski) November 28, 2012
For those who are in favor of voting for PED users, they’re going to want to cast ballots for Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mike Piazza, and Jeff Bagwell, who are all obvious selections purely from a performance standpoint. That leaves only six spots left on the ballot for the non-PED newcomers and the holdovers from previous years. That means a voter could not support the PED group and also vote for all of Craig Biggio, Curt Schilling, Larry Walker, Alan Trammell, Edgar Martinez, Tim Raines, and Kenny Lofton. They’re not allowed. They have to exclude someone from that group simply because of the size of the ballot. And if they support the candidacy of a guy like Jack Morris, they kicking two of that group off the ballot. If they support McGwire and Palmeiro, then they’re kicking out most of that group, even if they believe most of them belong.
Next year, this gets even worse. Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Mike Mussina, and Tom Glavine all come up for induction for the first time. Any voter who rightfully acknowledges that they’re all deserving candidates is going to be left with six spots to fill, and nearly all of this year’s candidates will be on the ballot again next year. We’re heading towards a point where there are going to be 20 or more viable candidates on the ballot each year, and the BBWAA is simply not inducting candidates at a fast enough rate to stem the tide.
Alan Trammell and Kenny Lofton are classic bubble candidates. You can make an argument for them or against them and be on solid ground. But you can’t make a good argument that they should be less likely to make the Hall of Fame because they happen to be on the ballot at the same time the PED crowd has come up for induction. You can’t make a good argument that a player’s HOF worthiness should be decided because of the size of the piece of paper that is mailed to the voters. Lofton, Trammell, Raines, Martinez, Walker… these guys should be evaluated based on their own merits, their own accomplishments, and their own careers. And they shouldn’t be penalized because the ballot doesn’t contain enough empty spaces for voters to have their actual opinions registered.
Full ballots are going to be turned in this year, and those full ballots will be counted as no votes against every player who doesn’t appear in one of the 10 spots. Joe Posnanski is going to be forced to vote no on four players he wants to see in Cooperstown. He’s not the only one.
This is beyond silly. Give writers the ability to return a ballot with 15, 20, 25, even 50 names if they want. If they support a big Hall of Fame, that’s their right, and if they support PED candidates, that’s their right too. We shouldn’t take that right away from them simply because the PED issue is creating a logjam of viable candidates. We shouldn’t penalize players who have nothing to do with PEDs because they happen to be on the ballot at the same time as Bonds and Clemens.
Just make the ballot bigger. It’s an easy fix to a real problem.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Oh, the joy I will have snubbing Sosa, Bonds and Clemens (plus McGwire and Palmeiro, natch) on my HoF ballot.
— Philip Hersh (@olyphil) November 28, 2012
Regardless of where you stand on the issue of PEDs and the Hall of Fame — and hopefully we can all agree that reasonable people can disagree on this — it should be pretty obvious that Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens are not getting inducted into Cooperstown this year. Jeff Bagwell probably won’t either. The contingent of voters who want to keep these guys out is large enough to block them from getting 75% of the vote this year, and probably for the foreseeable future.
However, the contingent who wants them to be voted in based on their on field accomplishments is large enough to keep them on the ballot. Even inferior performers with ties to PEDs — such as Mark McGwire and Rafael Palmeiro — have a large enough base of support that they remain on the ballot. And so, as the Hall of Fame ballots go forward, they’re going to run into a significant overcrowding problem. They might be there already.
The official ballot mailed to voters lists spaces for 10 names. That is the maximum amount of numbers that any voter can support, regardless of how many players he thinks should be enshrined. And, it’s quite clear that for many voters, 10 spots are not enough.
Looking at HOF ballot, I counted 19 players for whom you could make a pretty good case, if you take PEDs out of equation.Can vote for 10
— Larry Stone (@StoneLarry) November 28, 2012
There are at least 14 players on this year’s Hall of Fame ballot I would love to see in the Hall.
— Joe Posnanski (@JPosnanski) November 28, 2012
For those who are in favor of voting for PED users, they’re going to want to cast ballots for Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mike Piazza, and Jeff Bagwell, who are all obvious selections purely from a performance standpoint. That leaves only six spots left on the ballot for the non-PED newcomers and the holdovers from previous years. That means a voter could not support the PED group and also vote for all of Craig Biggio, Curt Schilling, Larry Walker, Alan Trammell, Edgar Martinez, Tim Raines, and Kenny Lofton. They’re not allowed. They have to exclude someone from that group simply because of the size of the ballot. And if they support the candidacy of a guy like Jack Morris, they kicking two of that group off the ballot. If they support McGwire and Palmeiro, then they’re kicking out most of that group, even if they believe most of them belong.
Next year, this gets even worse. Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Mike Mussina, and Tom Glavine all come up for induction for the first time. Any voter who rightfully acknowledges that they’re all deserving candidates is going to be left with six spots to fill, and nearly all of this year’s candidates will be on the ballot again next year. We’re heading towards a point where there are going to be 20 or more viable candidates on the ballot each year, and the BBWAA is simply not inducting candidates at a fast enough rate to stem the tide.
Alan Trammell and Kenny Lofton are classic bubble candidates. You can make an argument for them or against them and be on solid ground. But you can’t make a good argument that they should be less likely to make the Hall of Fame because they happen to be on the ballot at the same time the PED crowd has come up for induction. You can’t make a good argument that a player’s HOF worthiness should be decided because of the size of the piece of paper that is mailed to the voters. Lofton, Trammell, Raines, Martinez, Walker… these guys should be evaluated based on their own merits, their own accomplishments, and their own careers. And they shouldn’t be penalized because the ballot doesn’t contain enough empty spaces for voters to have their actual opinions registered.
Full ballots are going to be turned in this year, and those full ballots will be counted as no votes against every player who doesn’t appear in one of the 10 spots. Joe Posnanski is going to be forced to vote no on four players he wants to see in Cooperstown. He’s not the only one.
This is beyond silly. Give writers the ability to return a ballot with 15, 20, 25, even 50 names if they want. If they support a big Hall of Fame, that’s their right, and if they support PED candidates, that’s their right too. We shouldn’t take that right away from them simply because the PED issue is creating a logjam of viable candidates. We shouldn’t penalize players who have nothing to do with PEDs because they happen to be on the ballot at the same time as Bonds and Clemens.
Just make the ballot bigger. It’s an easy fix to a real problem.
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- Jul 16, 2002
- 7,925
- 914
Wright getting that money . Time to cop a Wright jersey.
. Time to cop a Wright jersey.
- Jan 3, 2011
- 10,371
- 653
Osh, what do you have for me on Mike McDade?
I see middling power that declined at every minor league level, but he's only 23 and could be interesting. Worth the flier, or was waivers where he belonged?
I see middling power that declined at every minor league level, but he's only 23 and could be interesting. Worth the flier, or was waivers where he belonged?
jumpmanfromdabay
Banned
- Jan 25, 2008
- 25,730
- 2,900
ManRam tested positive for testosterone last year
- Nov 18, 2010
- 4,201
- 141
dbl
Last edited:
- Nov 18, 2010
- 4,201
- 141
Meyer/Span seems like a good enough deal both ways. As a baseball fan, I was hoping Harper would see a lot of CF, but it's a rational decision.
O's non tendered Mark Reynolds, and made some other minor moves. I'll always be fond of dude for his stretch run last season, but I need a lot more production out of my first baseman.
I'm sure a lot of you have seen it, but I really enjoyed this piece on MLB players trade value.
http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8627606/rating-players-contracts-major-league-baseball-part-1
O's non tendered Mark Reynolds, and made some other minor moves. I'll always be fond of dude for his stretch run last season, but I need a lot more production out of my first baseman.
I'm sure a lot of you have seen it, but I really enjoyed this piece on MLB players trade value.
http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8627606/rating-players-contracts-major-league-baseball-part-1
- Aug 2, 2006
- 34,144
- 29,488
Probabaly on the waivers where he belongs, he only put up .493 SLG in Veags an insane bandbox hitters park and for a frist baseman that won't cut it. It's not like the jays have any other real 1B prospects so he' probably not very good. If you cna only play first base and you are only a decent hitter there is no place for you in the AL.
jumpmanfromdabay
Banned
- Jan 25, 2008
- 25,730
- 2,900
Phillies offered Angel Pagan 4 Yrs/40Mill :x
- Jan 3, 2011
- 10,371
- 653
Nonsense.
GreenNGold89
formerly bbllplaya23
- Apr 5, 2005
- 6,596
- 2,149
Got tickets to the WBC in SF.
Hoping to get some for the rounds in AZ also.
Hoping to get some for the rounds in AZ also.
- Apr 15, 2005
- 11,588
- 837
I'm going to the WBC, too. Can't wait.
- Status
