- Jul 17, 2009
- 6,201
- 606
BJ Upton is the Braves biggest FA signing since Maddux in 1992. I hope he can produce, the trio of Heyward, Freeman, and Upton 
2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by proshares,
- Start date
- Status
- May 2, 2007
- 12,391
- 2,910
Upton !!! Hopefully he puts in work for usBut all that money
Pretty big contract year. They need him *shrugs*
DLand, I agree with you 100%. Jack Morris and Lee Smith :x
I'm really hoping Edgar, Raines, Bags and Trammell can get in this year?
marinadelrey
Banned
- Jul 7, 2011
- 735
- 70
will Greinke really get 25 a year?? 
GreenNGold89
formerly bbllplaya23
- Apr 5, 2005
- 6,596
- 2,149
Anyone who give Greinke close to 25 mil is out of there ******g mind.
- Aug 2, 2008
- 37,562
- 13,058
Hopefully Pettitte can stay healthy..
2010 started amazing at 11-2 and got injured. Missed 2 months
Last year started off decent for a year off and for the role he was being asked to do and missed 3 months.
Still not convinced with the Yankees rotation of CC-Pineda - Kuroda - Pettitte - (Nova or Hughes)
Something seems to be missing. I think Pineda would be a better #3, but that's me.
2010 started amazing at 11-2 and got injured. Missed 2 months
Last year started off decent for a year off and for the role he was being asked to do and missed 3 months.
Still not convinced with the Yankees rotation of CC-Pineda - Kuroda - Pettitte - (Nova or Hughes)
Something seems to be missing. I think Pineda would be a better #3, but that's me.
- Jul 23, 2007
- 31,964
- 1,056
Go Look at BJ's stats.
I'll give u the tear he went on in 2nd half of season but he was sleep walking the entire first half of the season
BJ still my guy tho
mr marcus
Banned
- May 3, 2010
- 26,572
- 5,415
welcome to the Braves BJ
Go Look at BJ's stats.
I'll give u the tear he went on in 2nd half of season but he was sleep walking the entire first half of the season
BJ still my guy tho
I know BJ's stats and the tear in the second half is what folks are gonna remember, esp with their little run almost catching NY/Baltimore. He was swinging for the fences all year, I doubt his plate discipline flew out the window that fast, he's been a .350 OBP guy his whole career. They're gonna pay for his prime years, I don't think it's that bad of a deal.
B.J. Upton deal a win for Atlanta.
Agents to watch at winter meetings.
Making sense of the HOF character clause.
Braves take gamble with Upton.
Evan Longoria keeps it under control.
Best contracts in baseball.
B.J. Upton's five-year, $75 million deal with Atlanta looks like a winner for both sides. It's a solid return for a player coming off a disappointing year, while the team gets the top position player available in free agency this year for his ages-28-to-32 seasons, meaning they get most of his offensive peak without locking up much of his decline phase and don't have to worry too much about him losing enough defensive value to have to move out of center field.
In Upton, Atlanta gets an above-average defender in center with plus raw power and some past history of plate discipline, although he became much more aggressive in 2012 in what I assume was an effort to boost his power numbers as he headed into free agency. Upton can't touch Michael Bourn's glove, but he's less of a dropoff than any other possible successor to Bourn and makes up for the defensive drop-off with his power, although he's never been able to translate that raw ability -- which should produce 30-plus home runs -- into performance over a full season, with 2012's total of 28 his new high.
Upton had been a patient hitter prior to this season, with an OBP of .346 in his five full seasons as a starter before 2012 and walk totals ranging from good to outstanding, so there's performance upside here if he returns to his old ways of working the count. There is still performance risk with Upton, who's only had one season, 2007, in which he put all of his offense skills -- power, patience and speed -- on display at once, but he still has the physical tools and has shown all of those abilities separately over the years since that breakout season.
Atlanta's biggest organizational weakness right now is a dearth of quality position-player prospects in its farm system, with no one capable of playing a major league-caliber center field anywhere on the horizon, making Upton a very strong fit. The Braves are still short a hitter, with Juan Francisco and his career .297 OBP (removing IBB) looming as the everyday third baseman, but even right now their offense should be slightly above the median, more than enough for their run-prevention strength to make them strong playoff contenders, assuming Sam Holbrook isn't working in October.
This move raises the stakes for the Phillies, who were seen as one of the favorites to land Upton, as well as the team most in need of what he offered: defense, power, some OBP and an age that doesn't start with a "3." The remaining center-field options all bear higher risks, with Michael Bourn, Angel Pagan and Josh Hamilton all older than Upton and more likely to end a five-year deal in left than in center.
The Rays, meanwhile, can make Desmond Jennings their everyday center fielder while giving some of the excess playing time to Brandon Guyer, who missed most of 2012 after labrum surgery but has a history of strong performances in the minors. Assuming they don't add another outfielder, the loss of Upton would probably cost them about two wins over the course of a full season even with the improvement I expect to see from Jennings in 2013.
In Upton, Atlanta gets an above-average defender in center with plus raw power and some past history of plate discipline, although he became much more aggressive in 2012 in what I assume was an effort to boost his power numbers as he headed into free agency. Upton can't touch Michael Bourn's glove, but he's less of a dropoff than any other possible successor to Bourn and makes up for the defensive drop-off with his power, although he's never been able to translate that raw ability -- which should produce 30-plus home runs -- into performance over a full season, with 2012's total of 28 his new high.
Upton had been a patient hitter prior to this season, with an OBP of .346 in his five full seasons as a starter before 2012 and walk totals ranging from good to outstanding, so there's performance upside here if he returns to his old ways of working the count. There is still performance risk with Upton, who's only had one season, 2007, in which he put all of his offense skills -- power, patience and speed -- on display at once, but he still has the physical tools and has shown all of those abilities separately over the years since that breakout season.
Atlanta's biggest organizational weakness right now is a dearth of quality position-player prospects in its farm system, with no one capable of playing a major league-caliber center field anywhere on the horizon, making Upton a very strong fit. The Braves are still short a hitter, with Juan Francisco and his career .297 OBP (removing IBB) looming as the everyday third baseman, but even right now their offense should be slightly above the median, more than enough for their run-prevention strength to make them strong playoff contenders, assuming Sam Holbrook isn't working in October.
This move raises the stakes for the Phillies, who were seen as one of the favorites to land Upton, as well as the team most in need of what he offered: defense, power, some OBP and an age that doesn't start with a "3." The remaining center-field options all bear higher risks, with Michael Bourn, Angel Pagan and Josh Hamilton all older than Upton and more likely to end a five-year deal in left than in center.
The Rays, meanwhile, can make Desmond Jennings their everyday center fielder while giving some of the excess playing time to Brandon Guyer, who missed most of 2012 after labrum surgery but has a history of strong performances in the minors. Assuming they don't add another outfielder, the loss of Upton would probably cost them about two wins over the course of a full season even with the improvement I expect to see from Jennings in 2013.
Agents to watch at winter meetings.
Make no mistake -- Scott Boras is always the headliner among agents at baseball’s annual winter meetings.
He loves the limelight and will make sure to walk by the media area at optimum times and hold court. He’s always entertaining, and his strong and often controversial opinions make the TV cameras' red lights go on and writers fill their notepads. This year will be no different with his representation of free agents Michael Bourn, Kyle Lohse and Rafael Soriano, among many others.
However, there’s been a not-so-subtle changing of the guard. For decades, high-profile agents like Tom Reich and Adam Katz, Ron Shapiro, Jim Bronner and Bob Gilhooley and Randy and Alan Hendricks often stood front and center with Boras, dominating the meetings from behind the scenes. But now, larger corporations such as CAA and SFX have taken over a lot of the game’s player representations.
Regardless, the game’s top power brokers will gather this weekend at the Gaylord Opryland Hotel in Nashville, Tenn. Here is a quick glance at some of this year’s most important agents to watch:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Excel Sports Management | Lead agent: Casey Close
Top free agent: Zack Greinke | Others: Andy Pettitte, Scott Hairston, Jeremy Guthrie (recently signed three-year, $25M deal with Royals), Casey Kotchman, Jamey Wright Greinke's likely suitors: Los Angeles Dodgers, Texas Rangers, Los Angeles Angels and Washington Nationals
Background brief: After beginning his career at IMG and accruing 20 years of experience, Close joined Excel in 2011, partnering up with Jeff Schwartz and Mark Steinberg. Their client list is cross-sport, ranging from Derek Jeter and Clayton Kershaw to the NBA’s Paul Pierce, Blake Griffin and Deron Williams, as well as golf’s Tiger Woods.
Style/strategy: They are well-prepared, engaging and have a tremendous track record. They operate in a very private and professional manner and seem to attract the kind of players who handle their own business the same way. Excel is particularly good at recognizing its clients’ value and market and often gets top dollar for its clients. Excel's honest, straightforward approach has gained the respect of the industry.
Problems/barriers in negotiations: There are not a lot of clubs that have the financial wherewithal to play on Greinke.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MVP Sports Group | Lead Agent: Dan Lozano
Top free agent: Nick Swisher | Others: Brian Wilson, Jonny Gomes (recently signed two-year, $10M deal with Boston)
Swisher's likely suitors: Boston, Atlanta, Philadelphia and Texas
Background brief: Lozano boasts 24 years of experience, negotiating some of the game’s largest deals, including Albert Pujols’ $240 million deal with the Angels last December and Joey Votto’s $225 million contract extension with the Cincinnati Reds during spring training. The two deals totaled more than half a billion dollars, a record for any agency in any one offseason.
Style/strategy: Lozano and his staff are hard-working, loyal, passionate and treat their clients like family. His firm uses a stealth approach, as demonstrated by the Albert Pujols negotiations last December, when the Angels swooped in to get him at the last minute. Lozano doesn’t play games, preferring direct and straightforward negotiations with club executives. He always comes extremely prepared with top-notch communication skills.
Problems/barriers in negotiations: Swisher’s poor postseason performance could undermine the fact he’s had eight straight years of 20-plus home runs.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Reynolds Sports Management | Lead agent: Larry Reynolds
Top free agent: B.J. Upton | Others: Torii Hunter (recently signed a two-year, $26M deal with Detroit)
Upton's likely suitors: Atlanta, Philadelphia, mystery team
Background brief: Reynolds possesses 28 years of experience as an agent, and prior to negotiating Hunter's recent two-year deal, he got him a five-year, $90 million contract with the Angels in 2007, which was then the largest contract in club history.
Style/strategy: Reynolds makes a concerted effort to tailor each negotiation to the player and club he is dealing with. He spends a great deal of time studying the negotiating styles of the club executives in order to formulate the best plan to maximize the player’s compensation. Reynolds has a wide array of knowledge of the collective bargaining rights, performance comparables and how to stretch the present market. Negotiations can get adversarial and difficult depending on the situation. At the same time, Reynolds always tries to be reasonable and isn’t afraid to close deals earlier in the process than most agents.
Problems/barriers in negotiations: Getting a sixth year for Upton could be difficult.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Paragon Sports International | Lead agent: Brian Grieper
Top free agent: Mike Napoli
Napoli's likely suitors: Red Sox, Rangers and Mariners
Background brief: Paragon is a medium-sized baseball agency with offices in Miami, Los Angeles and Chicago and represents some of baseball’s top young talent and prospects. Grieper has cultivated relationships with club officials at all levels over a decade in the agent business. Many of these officials have gone on to become GMs, assistant GMs and scouting directors.
Style/strategy: Grieper stresses open dialogue, intense preparation and creative analytical and statistical analysis. He develops personal relationships with clients through trust and loyalty. The quality of representation was best illustrated when Grieper made Napoli -- who he has represented since high school -- the highest paid catcher during arbitration, earning him a one-year deal worth $9.4 million. His raise of $3.6 million is the second highest in the history of third- or fourth-time eligible hitters, ranking behind only Prince Fielder. Grieper is very direct and accurate with information, and he negotiates in a respectful and professional manner.
Problems/barriers in negotiations: Napoli is best suited with an American League team because of his value being able to DH along with playing first base and catcher. Obviously this could limit the number of teams that bid on Napoli’s services.
For more on Michael Moye, who is representing Josh Hamilton, check out Jerry Crasnick’s piece today.
He loves the limelight and will make sure to walk by the media area at optimum times and hold court. He’s always entertaining, and his strong and often controversial opinions make the TV cameras' red lights go on and writers fill their notepads. This year will be no different with his representation of free agents Michael Bourn, Kyle Lohse and Rafael Soriano, among many others.
However, there’s been a not-so-subtle changing of the guard. For decades, high-profile agents like Tom Reich and Adam Katz, Ron Shapiro, Jim Bronner and Bob Gilhooley and Randy and Alan Hendricks often stood front and center with Boras, dominating the meetings from behind the scenes. But now, larger corporations such as CAA and SFX have taken over a lot of the game’s player representations.
Regardless, the game’s top power brokers will gather this weekend at the Gaylord Opryland Hotel in Nashville, Tenn. Here is a quick glance at some of this year’s most important agents to watch:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Excel Sports Management | Lead agent: Casey Close
Top free agent: Zack Greinke | Others: Andy Pettitte, Scott Hairston, Jeremy Guthrie (recently signed three-year, $25M deal with Royals), Casey Kotchman, Jamey Wright Greinke's likely suitors: Los Angeles Dodgers, Texas Rangers, Los Angeles Angels and Washington Nationals
Background brief: After beginning his career at IMG and accruing 20 years of experience, Close joined Excel in 2011, partnering up with Jeff Schwartz and Mark Steinberg. Their client list is cross-sport, ranging from Derek Jeter and Clayton Kershaw to the NBA’s Paul Pierce, Blake Griffin and Deron Williams, as well as golf’s Tiger Woods.
Style/strategy: They are well-prepared, engaging and have a tremendous track record. They operate in a very private and professional manner and seem to attract the kind of players who handle their own business the same way. Excel is particularly good at recognizing its clients’ value and market and often gets top dollar for its clients. Excel's honest, straightforward approach has gained the respect of the industry.
Problems/barriers in negotiations: There are not a lot of clubs that have the financial wherewithal to play on Greinke.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MVP Sports Group | Lead Agent: Dan Lozano
Top free agent: Nick Swisher | Others: Brian Wilson, Jonny Gomes (recently signed two-year, $10M deal with Boston)
Swisher's likely suitors: Boston, Atlanta, Philadelphia and Texas
Background brief: Lozano boasts 24 years of experience, negotiating some of the game’s largest deals, including Albert Pujols’ $240 million deal with the Angels last December and Joey Votto’s $225 million contract extension with the Cincinnati Reds during spring training. The two deals totaled more than half a billion dollars, a record for any agency in any one offseason.
Style/strategy: Lozano and his staff are hard-working, loyal, passionate and treat their clients like family. His firm uses a stealth approach, as demonstrated by the Albert Pujols negotiations last December, when the Angels swooped in to get him at the last minute. Lozano doesn’t play games, preferring direct and straightforward negotiations with club executives. He always comes extremely prepared with top-notch communication skills.
Problems/barriers in negotiations: Swisher’s poor postseason performance could undermine the fact he’s had eight straight years of 20-plus home runs.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Reynolds Sports Management | Lead agent: Larry Reynolds
Top free agent: B.J. Upton | Others: Torii Hunter (recently signed a two-year, $26M deal with Detroit)
Upton's likely suitors: Atlanta, Philadelphia, mystery team
Background brief: Reynolds possesses 28 years of experience as an agent, and prior to negotiating Hunter's recent two-year deal, he got him a five-year, $90 million contract with the Angels in 2007, which was then the largest contract in club history.
Style/strategy: Reynolds makes a concerted effort to tailor each negotiation to the player and club he is dealing with. He spends a great deal of time studying the negotiating styles of the club executives in order to formulate the best plan to maximize the player’s compensation. Reynolds has a wide array of knowledge of the collective bargaining rights, performance comparables and how to stretch the present market. Negotiations can get adversarial and difficult depending on the situation. At the same time, Reynolds always tries to be reasonable and isn’t afraid to close deals earlier in the process than most agents.
Problems/barriers in negotiations: Getting a sixth year for Upton could be difficult.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Paragon Sports International | Lead agent: Brian Grieper
Top free agent: Mike Napoli
Napoli's likely suitors: Red Sox, Rangers and Mariners
Background brief: Paragon is a medium-sized baseball agency with offices in Miami, Los Angeles and Chicago and represents some of baseball’s top young talent and prospects. Grieper has cultivated relationships with club officials at all levels over a decade in the agent business. Many of these officials have gone on to become GMs, assistant GMs and scouting directors.
Style/strategy: Grieper stresses open dialogue, intense preparation and creative analytical and statistical analysis. He develops personal relationships with clients through trust and loyalty. The quality of representation was best illustrated when Grieper made Napoli -- who he has represented since high school -- the highest paid catcher during arbitration, earning him a one-year deal worth $9.4 million. His raise of $3.6 million is the second highest in the history of third- or fourth-time eligible hitters, ranking behind only Prince Fielder. Grieper is very direct and accurate with information, and he negotiates in a respectful and professional manner.
Problems/barriers in negotiations: Napoli is best suited with an American League team because of his value being able to DH along with playing first base and catcher. Obviously this could limit the number of teams that bid on Napoli’s services.
For more on Michael Moye, who is representing Josh Hamilton, check out Jerry Crasnick’s piece today.
Making sense of the HOF character clause.
The so-called character clause is at the heart of the debate over what to do with the Hall of Fame candidates who have been linked to performance-enhancing drugs.
The criterion sent to the voters annually (including this week):
Voting shall be based upon the player's record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character and contribution to the team(s) on which the player played.
It is apparent from the voting that a majority of the writers who have cast ballots for the Hall of Fame in recent years have applied that wording literally in determining what to do with Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro and even Jeff Bagwell. Presumably, this is what they will do in assessing the candidacies of Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Sammy Sosa and others this year.
Brad Horn, the Hall of Fame's senior director of communications, recently explored the origin of that wording. Later today, the Hall will post his written piece on its website:
Character, Sportsmanship, Integrity Long Included in Formal Rules for Election
From the first formalization of rules for Hall of Fame election proposed in 1944 and adopted in 1945, the National Baseball Hall of Fame has always called for "sportsmanship" and "character" as part of the necessary criteria needed to earn a spot in Cooperstown.
In August 1944, a Hall of Fame memo outlined the informal policy that had existed for Hall of Fame voting from its origins in 1936. Paul S. Kerr, then treasurer for the National Baseball Museum and Hall of Fame, stated that Alexander Cleland, instrumental in the voting process since the Hall's first election in 1936, listed general rules that "those worthy of Hall of Fame election should be selected from the ranks for ability, character and their general contribution to baseball in all respects."
While the necessary 75 percent of all ballots cast has been required for election from the beginning, so too appears the inclusion of character as a determinant for the Hall of Fame.
With the formal adoption of rules for 1945, as proposed in bylaws for the National Baseball Hall of Fame Committee in December 1944, the Committee authorized the BBWAA to "hold elections for the purpose of electing members to the Baseball Hall of Fame." The rules, which at the time called for elections once ever three years starting in 1945 and then later amended to elections every year starting in 1946, outlined the qualifications eligible candidates needed to have for consideration, having completed their active careers as players, even if they were still connected with baseball.
"They shall be chosen on the basis of playing ability, sportsmanship, character, their contribution to the teams on which they played and to baseball in general."
Though slight modifications have transpired in the nearly 70 years since, the model for Hall of Fame election has always remained one defined by character and sportsmanship.
The 2013 ballot will be formally released at noon today, Ben Walker writes.
Marvin Miller's legacy
I'll just add one more voice to the din: It's incredible that Marvin Miller is not in baseball's Hall of Fame, because his impact on the sports landscape -- not just baseball -- is undeniable. In fact, if you were to draw up a list of the most influential figures in professional sports history in this country, he'd probably rank somewhere in the 6-to-10 range.
Grudges loomed large in the Hall of Fame voting for Miller, Richard Sandomir writes.
Murray Chass wonders if Miller can now get into the Hall of Fame. Tom Powers remembers detesting Miller.
Miller was baseball's rainmaker, Mark Whicker writes. He earned the respect of others, Fay Vincent writes. From Fay's piece:
Marvin Miller called me about six weeks ago to say goodbye. He told me he had terminal liver cancer and wanted his close friends to know. He did not want us to view the news as tragic. He was 95, he said, and the last two years had been difficult. That call was as remarkable as Marvin was.
Here's Miller's obituary, written by **** Goldstein, from the New York Times.
Rumor mill
• One person involved in the Zack Greinke talks believes that in the end, the pitcher could get a deal larger than the seven-year, $161 million package that CC Sabathia got from the New York Yankees, which is the record for pitchers.
And remember this: If the Dodgers sign Greinke -- or even if they don't -- this deal will have a direct bearing on the forthcoming negotiations with left-hander Clayton Kershaw, who is clearly regarded as the better pitcher. Kershaw is in line to be eligible for free agency after the 2014 season, at age 27; if he actually hit the open market, the Yankees, Red Sox and other teams would be in position to make strong bids, if they wanted to.
But the Dodgers, in free-spending mode, will presumably work out a long-term deal with Kershaw before that happens. Following this order of business, however (not finishing a Kershaw extension before getting involved in the Greinke talks), will likely to cost the team a lot of money.
The Dodgers' new TV deal has the baseball world in an uproar. There are also a lot of folks who don't think the deal is worth in real present-day dollars what it has said to be worth.
[+] Enlarge
AP Photo/Chris Bernacchi
The ball is now in David Wright's court.• The New York Mets have a huge offer on the table to David Wright, and now it's up to him to decide whether to stay, John Harper writes. A new pact would be a win for the Mets and Wright, Ken Davidoff writes.
Really, the decision now comes down to this: Does Wright want to remain with the Mets?
Some rival evaluators believe that if the third baseman hits the market next fall after having a 2013 season similar to what he had in 2012, at age 30, he might be hard-pressed to get a massive nine-figure contract from another team because he's not an elite power hitter. Last season, he hit nine homers in 339 plate appearances on the road.
And if Wright -- an incredibly competitive person and a natural leader -- decides he wants to play elsewhere, you really couldn't blame him. The Mets have been a disaster in recent years, and it's unclear when they'll have a chance to be an elite team again -- if ever, during his playing days.
• The Detroit Tigers have let other teams know they're willing to talk about trade proposals for Rick Porcello, and similarly, rival clubs have gotten the sense that the Boston Red Sox would be very ready to move Andrew Bailey for the right offer. But given that Bailey is coming off an injury-plagued season, his trade value is relatively low, and so the odds of Boston dealing him -- and accepting that scant return -- are also very low.
• Friends of Cody Ross believe that the Red Sox are in the lead for his services -- for a three-year deal -- but there wasn't talk over the weekend.
• Tony Paul doesn't think the Tigers should spend on Rafael Soriano. I'd respectfully disagree. Mike Ilitch, owner of the Tigers, has never run his team as a model of financial efficiency, spending his own money freely in an effort to win a championship. If he's still working in that mode -- and there's no reason to think he isn't -- then Soriano makes sense. The Tigers have a lot of great parts, from Justin Verlander to Miguel Cabrera to Prince Fielder to Doug Fister, but have a massive, glaring hole in their bullpen, and this was exposed in the World Series.
Soriano is the best closer available and has been a good reliever for years, and it makes more sense to sign him -- so long as he doesn't stick to the demands of four years and $60 million -- than to go into next season thinking that the unproven Bruce Rondon will be able to fill this role. The Tigers have a championship-caliber engine and frame, but still need that valuable piece at the back end of their bullpen to run smoothly.
• One very interesting possibility for the Red Sox that may develop later this week: Brian Wilson. The New Hampshire native will likely be non-tendered by the Giants, and he could land with the team he followed as a kid. Unlike a lot of candidates, there wouldn't be any doubt about whether he could handle the market, and presumably he'd be looking for a short-term deal as he re-establishes his value.
Chooch's error
• Carlos Ruiz will miss the first 25 games of the 2013 season, after testing positive for Adderall. He issued a statement:
"I am sincerely regretful for my mistake in taking a prohibited stimulant. I apologize to my teammates, the Phillies organization, and the Philadelphia fans. I will serve the imposed 25-game suspension to begin the season and I look forward to returning to the field and working toward bringing a championship back to Philadelphia in 2013."
Given the rules in place, this was at least the second positive test for Ruiz (an initial positive test for amphetamines does not trigger a suspension). Really, it'd be nice if busted players would dispense with the empty apologies; it'd be more genuine if they just issued these words in a press release: What can I say? I gambled that I could beat the testing and got caught.
Adderall has become the athletes' drug of choice, Larry Stone writes.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. The Minnesota Twins are talking about bringing back Francisco Liriano. Hey, why not -- he knows them, they know him, and the Twins are desperate for pitching.
2. The Milwaukee Brewers announced some promotions.
3. The Chicago White Sox rounded out their coaching staff.
4. The Chicago Cubs signed Scott Feldman to a one-year deal.
5. In a sense, Aroldis Chapman is a tremendous acquisition for the Reds, John Erardi writes.
6. It's unlikely that the Detroit Tigers will make a blockbuster deal, \Lynn Henning writes.
7. The time is now for the Kansas City Royals' David Glass to increase the team's payroll, Sam Mellinger writes.
8. The St. Louis Cardinals have made a shift with their farm system, Derrick Goold writes.
9. Justin Upton should play where he's wanted, Nick Piecoro writes.
10. The San Francisco Giants' negotiations with Marco Scutaro and Angel Pagan are slow-moving at this point, Henry Schulman writes .
11. The Los Angeles Angels worked out their agreement with Ryan Madson.
12. The Texas Rangers are set to meet with Mike Napoli.
13. The Houston Astros' VP of marketing stepped down.
14. Ron Borges thinks the Red Sox should trade Jon Lester now.
The criterion sent to the voters annually (including this week):
Voting shall be based upon the player's record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character and contribution to the team(s) on which the player played.
It is apparent from the voting that a majority of the writers who have cast ballots for the Hall of Fame in recent years have applied that wording literally in determining what to do with Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro and even Jeff Bagwell. Presumably, this is what they will do in assessing the candidacies of Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Sammy Sosa and others this year.
Brad Horn, the Hall of Fame's senior director of communications, recently explored the origin of that wording. Later today, the Hall will post his written piece on its website:
Character, Sportsmanship, Integrity Long Included in Formal Rules for Election
From the first formalization of rules for Hall of Fame election proposed in 1944 and adopted in 1945, the National Baseball Hall of Fame has always called for "sportsmanship" and "character" as part of the necessary criteria needed to earn a spot in Cooperstown.
In August 1944, a Hall of Fame memo outlined the informal policy that had existed for Hall of Fame voting from its origins in 1936. Paul S. Kerr, then treasurer for the National Baseball Museum and Hall of Fame, stated that Alexander Cleland, instrumental in the voting process since the Hall's first election in 1936, listed general rules that "those worthy of Hall of Fame election should be selected from the ranks for ability, character and their general contribution to baseball in all respects."
While the necessary 75 percent of all ballots cast has been required for election from the beginning, so too appears the inclusion of character as a determinant for the Hall of Fame.
With the formal adoption of rules for 1945, as proposed in bylaws for the National Baseball Hall of Fame Committee in December 1944, the Committee authorized the BBWAA to "hold elections for the purpose of electing members to the Baseball Hall of Fame." The rules, which at the time called for elections once ever three years starting in 1945 and then later amended to elections every year starting in 1946, outlined the qualifications eligible candidates needed to have for consideration, having completed their active careers as players, even if they were still connected with baseball.
"They shall be chosen on the basis of playing ability, sportsmanship, character, their contribution to the teams on which they played and to baseball in general."
Though slight modifications have transpired in the nearly 70 years since, the model for Hall of Fame election has always remained one defined by character and sportsmanship.
The 2013 ballot will be formally released at noon today, Ben Walker writes.
Marvin Miller's legacy
I'll just add one more voice to the din: It's incredible that Marvin Miller is not in baseball's Hall of Fame, because his impact on the sports landscape -- not just baseball -- is undeniable. In fact, if you were to draw up a list of the most influential figures in professional sports history in this country, he'd probably rank somewhere in the 6-to-10 range.
Grudges loomed large in the Hall of Fame voting for Miller, Richard Sandomir writes.
Murray Chass wonders if Miller can now get into the Hall of Fame. Tom Powers remembers detesting Miller.
Miller was baseball's rainmaker, Mark Whicker writes. He earned the respect of others, Fay Vincent writes. From Fay's piece:
Marvin Miller called me about six weeks ago to say goodbye. He told me he had terminal liver cancer and wanted his close friends to know. He did not want us to view the news as tragic. He was 95, he said, and the last two years had been difficult. That call was as remarkable as Marvin was.
Here's Miller's obituary, written by **** Goldstein, from the New York Times.
Rumor mill
• One person involved in the Zack Greinke talks believes that in the end, the pitcher could get a deal larger than the seven-year, $161 million package that CC Sabathia got from the New York Yankees, which is the record for pitchers.
And remember this: If the Dodgers sign Greinke -- or even if they don't -- this deal will have a direct bearing on the forthcoming negotiations with left-hander Clayton Kershaw, who is clearly regarded as the better pitcher. Kershaw is in line to be eligible for free agency after the 2014 season, at age 27; if he actually hit the open market, the Yankees, Red Sox and other teams would be in position to make strong bids, if they wanted to.
But the Dodgers, in free-spending mode, will presumably work out a long-term deal with Kershaw before that happens. Following this order of business, however (not finishing a Kershaw extension before getting involved in the Greinke talks), will likely to cost the team a lot of money.
The Dodgers' new TV deal has the baseball world in an uproar. There are also a lot of folks who don't think the deal is worth in real present-day dollars what it has said to be worth.
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AP Photo/Chris Bernacchi
The ball is now in David Wright's court.• The New York Mets have a huge offer on the table to David Wright, and now it's up to him to decide whether to stay, John Harper writes. A new pact would be a win for the Mets and Wright, Ken Davidoff writes.
Really, the decision now comes down to this: Does Wright want to remain with the Mets?
Some rival evaluators believe that if the third baseman hits the market next fall after having a 2013 season similar to what he had in 2012, at age 30, he might be hard-pressed to get a massive nine-figure contract from another team because he's not an elite power hitter. Last season, he hit nine homers in 339 plate appearances on the road.
And if Wright -- an incredibly competitive person and a natural leader -- decides he wants to play elsewhere, you really couldn't blame him. The Mets have been a disaster in recent years, and it's unclear when they'll have a chance to be an elite team again -- if ever, during his playing days.
• The Detroit Tigers have let other teams know they're willing to talk about trade proposals for Rick Porcello, and similarly, rival clubs have gotten the sense that the Boston Red Sox would be very ready to move Andrew Bailey for the right offer. But given that Bailey is coming off an injury-plagued season, his trade value is relatively low, and so the odds of Boston dealing him -- and accepting that scant return -- are also very low.
• Friends of Cody Ross believe that the Red Sox are in the lead for his services -- for a three-year deal -- but there wasn't talk over the weekend.
• Tony Paul doesn't think the Tigers should spend on Rafael Soriano. I'd respectfully disagree. Mike Ilitch, owner of the Tigers, has never run his team as a model of financial efficiency, spending his own money freely in an effort to win a championship. If he's still working in that mode -- and there's no reason to think he isn't -- then Soriano makes sense. The Tigers have a lot of great parts, from Justin Verlander to Miguel Cabrera to Prince Fielder to Doug Fister, but have a massive, glaring hole in their bullpen, and this was exposed in the World Series.
Soriano is the best closer available and has been a good reliever for years, and it makes more sense to sign him -- so long as he doesn't stick to the demands of four years and $60 million -- than to go into next season thinking that the unproven Bruce Rondon will be able to fill this role. The Tigers have a championship-caliber engine and frame, but still need that valuable piece at the back end of their bullpen to run smoothly.
• One very interesting possibility for the Red Sox that may develop later this week: Brian Wilson. The New Hampshire native will likely be non-tendered by the Giants, and he could land with the team he followed as a kid. Unlike a lot of candidates, there wouldn't be any doubt about whether he could handle the market, and presumably he'd be looking for a short-term deal as he re-establishes his value.
Chooch's error
• Carlos Ruiz will miss the first 25 games of the 2013 season, after testing positive for Adderall. He issued a statement:
"I am sincerely regretful for my mistake in taking a prohibited stimulant. I apologize to my teammates, the Phillies organization, and the Philadelphia fans. I will serve the imposed 25-game suspension to begin the season and I look forward to returning to the field and working toward bringing a championship back to Philadelphia in 2013."
Given the rules in place, this was at least the second positive test for Ruiz (an initial positive test for amphetamines does not trigger a suspension). Really, it'd be nice if busted players would dispense with the empty apologies; it'd be more genuine if they just issued these words in a press release: What can I say? I gambled that I could beat the testing and got caught.
Adderall has become the athletes' drug of choice, Larry Stone writes.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. The Minnesota Twins are talking about bringing back Francisco Liriano. Hey, why not -- he knows them, they know him, and the Twins are desperate for pitching.
2. The Milwaukee Brewers announced some promotions.
3. The Chicago White Sox rounded out their coaching staff.
4. The Chicago Cubs signed Scott Feldman to a one-year deal.
5. In a sense, Aroldis Chapman is a tremendous acquisition for the Reds, John Erardi writes.
6. It's unlikely that the Detroit Tigers will make a blockbuster deal, \Lynn Henning writes.
7. The time is now for the Kansas City Royals' David Glass to increase the team's payroll, Sam Mellinger writes.
8. The St. Louis Cardinals have made a shift with their farm system, Derrick Goold writes.
9. Justin Upton should play where he's wanted, Nick Piecoro writes.
10. The San Francisco Giants' negotiations with Marco Scutaro and Angel Pagan are slow-moving at this point, Henry Schulman writes .
11. The Los Angeles Angels worked out their agreement with Ryan Madson.
12. The Texas Rangers are set to meet with Mike Napoli.
13. The Houston Astros' VP of marketing stepped down.
14. Ron Borges thinks the Red Sox should trade Jon Lester now.
Braves take gamble with Upton.
On Aug. 10 of the 2012 season, B.J. Upton had 10 homers, to go along with a .298 on-base percentage. At that trajectory, he was on pace for a season of 15 homers, 155 strikeouts, a .378 slugging percentage and 30 stolen bases. It wasn't long after that that a long-time general manager guessed that Upton's deal in free agency would be for about two years and $16 million, or possibly as much as $18 million.
But Upton smashed two homers on Aug. 11, in the Rays' 112th game, and over Tampa Bay's last 50 games he clubbed 18 homers. There's no way of knowing precisely what that burst of power did for Upton's value in the market, but it's probably safe to say that the rush of offense seemed to help significantly.
And by Thursday evening, we should see Upton standing on a podium, wearing a Braves jersey, having made the deal of a lifetime -- five years, $75.25 million, with the help of his highly respected agent, Larry Reynolds. Upton was the youngest of the center fielders on the market, at age 28, and the Braves stay young with this. Their lineup could look something like this by mid-May, after Brian McCann comes back from shoulder surgery:
POS Player (Age)
CF B.J. Upton (2
3B Martin Prado (29)
RF Jason Heyward (23)
1B Freddie Freeman (23)
2B Dan Uggla (32)
C Brian McCann (29)
LF ?
SS Andrelton Simmons (23)
The Braves had the best defensive center fielder in the majors in Michael Bourn, and Upton has been viewed as a plus at his position, as well, something you need in spacious Turner Field.
Atlanta signed Upton to the biggest free-agent contract in its history in spite of a lot of numbers and concerns that have been red-flagged in other organizations.
1. His declining on-base percentage, which has dropped almost 100 points over the past six seasons.
2007: .386
2008: .383
2009: .313
2010: .322
2011: .331
2012: .298
2. The strikeouts. Upton has racked up 934 over his past six seasons, in part because of his acute struggles against power pitchers. If you use the definition provided by Baseball-reference.com -- the top third of the pitchers in the league in strikeouts plus walks -- Upton hit .168 against power pitchers last year, with no homers in 121 plate appearances. After Wednesday's signing, rival evaluators mused over Fredi Gonzalez's challenge of trying to place Dan Uggla and Upton in the same lineup, given that Uggla is a very similar hitter to Upton -- streaky, with a lot of strikeouts.
3. His declining defensive metrics. There is no perfect measure of defense, but FanGraph's UZR/150 evaluation of Upton is right in line with more advanced metrics used by individual teams.
2007: 7.0
2008: 8.4
2009: 7.5
2010: 1.9
2011: 1.6
2012: -3.2
To repeat: Defensive metrics are tricky, and it may well be that the Braves had a much stronger evaluation of Upton.
4. The peaks and the valleys. His offense comes in bursts, and rival scouts have thought for years that Upton tends to get down on himself. In recent years, the Rays were open to listening to offers for Upton, as he got more expensive, and no team -- not the Braves, not some other club -- aggressively moved on him.
This whopper investment by Atlanta seems incongruous with how the industry has viewed Upton in recent seasons, and you wonder if the Braves might've been better off chasing Chris Young -- who was acquired by Oakland from Arizona a few weeks ago -- in a deal earlier this offseason. His age (29) and production has been very similar to that of Upton, he's regarded as a better defensive outfielder, and -- most important -- he's owed only $10 million over the next year, with an $8.5 million salary in 2013 and a $1.5 million buyout on an $11 million option for 2014. The Braves probably would have been better off overpaying in a trade for Young rather than assuming the risk of the massive deal with Upton.
But the opinions on Upton are scattered, and an NL evaluator offered a different perspective.
"He is the most talented player in the free-agent market and somebody I think will age well," the evaluator said. "He is continuing to improve. Most free-agent signings pay players for what they have done, but when you sign Upton, it's about what he will do.
"On top of that, things in the market are changing. Jonny Gomes just got a multiyear deal with an average annual value of $5 million, while setup guys like Brandon League and Jeremy Affeldt are getting paid between $6-8 million per year. Baseball just signed a new labor deal last year and got a lot of TV money this year. There was value in the Braves' striking early, before the market really took hold, because some of these contracts may get out of hand."
The Braves don't have a lot of outfield depth in their farm system, and they will now look to fill their left field position. Dexter Fowler could be an option as a trade target, just as Denard Span could be. They also could look to sign Shane Victorino, writes David O'Brien, although it's hard to imagine that Victorino will get anything less than three years and $27 million, given the financial shift in the sport.
Upton's Twitter account had an avatar change -- to a Braves logo, as Marc Topkin writes.
• The dominoes from the Upton signing will naturally fall toward Philadelphia now, because the Phillies were in on Upton. Now their options have shrunk, and given Upton's deal, Michael Bourn has a stronger position to ask for more, and Angel Pagan can reasonably expect a four-year deal for something in the range of $45 million to $50 million. Victorino is still on the market, as is Josh Hamilton.
The Phillies' search continues, writes Bob Brookover. Upton's signing may be a blessing in disguise for the Phillies, writes David Murphy.
New York moves
• Yankees GM Brian Cashman met with Andy Pettitte's agent at the GM meetings a few weeks ago, and Jim Murray told Cashman then that he had an inkling that Pettitte would come back for another season. The conversations about a 2013 contract started then, Murray recalled. "The feeling was, 'look, let's be prepared, let's get something in place,' " Murray said. "We worked on it between then and now, talking fairly frequently."
But what Murray did not do, for weeks, was to press Pettitte for an answer on whether he wanted to pitch in 2013. When Pettitte was ready, Murray had a sense of the deal he could get from the Yankees.
"Andy was like, 'Let's do this,' " said Murray. "If Andy's not 100 percent committed to doing something, he's not going to do it."
Pettitte is getting a substantial raise over last year.
• The Mets are waiting to hear from David Wright on their $140 million offer, writes Andy Martino, and in chatting to a number of agents and officials who aren't involved in these talks, I found them unanimous in this thought: Wright will take this offer. "How can he turn it down?" said one agent. "There's no guarantee that he'll get that a year from now."
It is completely within Wright's power to look for a better chance to win, given the Mets' troubles, and if he turned down the offer and veered toward free agency, you couldn't blame him. But the name I kept thinking about, after hearing about the enormous offer to Wright, was Juan Gonzalez. He famously turned down a $151.5 million overture from the Detroit Tigers when he was exactly the same age as Wright, 29, and then never got anything close to that after an injury-plagued season -- a decision that cost him about $100 million.
• The Pirates are going after Russell Martin. But if there's not much difference between the bids of Pittsburgh and the Yankees, the choice will be simple for him.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. Carl Pavano would like to return to the Miami Marlins, as Joe Capozzi writes.
2. The Texas Rangers traded for a reliever.
3. David Glass is willing to increase the Kansas City Royals' payroll. Here's a breakdown of the Royals' payroll, from Bob Dutton.
4. The Cincinnati Reds will have an innings limit for Aroldis Chapman.
5. The Cleveland Indians moved to cut Rafael Perez.
6. The Pirates made some trades.
7. The Boston Red Sox raided the Yankees' staff for a coach.
8. The Orioles are interested in bringing back Koji Uehara. The O's traded for Danny Valencia.
9. The Red Sox could build their next great team if they deal Jon Lester for Wil Myers, writes Brian MacPherson. Wrote here yesterday about Brian Wilson as an interesting possibility for the Red Sox. Scott Lauber has more here, but to be clear: As of now, it appears that Andrew Bailey is in line to be the Boston closer.
10. The Washington Nationals are weighing their options for their spring training home.
11. Adam LaRoche's negotiations with the Nationals have gone slowly.
12. The Oakland Athletics signed Pat Neshek.
13. The Los Angels Angels finalized their deal with Ryan Madson.
But Upton smashed two homers on Aug. 11, in the Rays' 112th game, and over Tampa Bay's last 50 games he clubbed 18 homers. There's no way of knowing precisely what that burst of power did for Upton's value in the market, but it's probably safe to say that the rush of offense seemed to help significantly.
And by Thursday evening, we should see Upton standing on a podium, wearing a Braves jersey, having made the deal of a lifetime -- five years, $75.25 million, with the help of his highly respected agent, Larry Reynolds. Upton was the youngest of the center fielders on the market, at age 28, and the Braves stay young with this. Their lineup could look something like this by mid-May, after Brian McCann comes back from shoulder surgery:
POS Player (Age)
CF B.J. Upton (2
3B Martin Prado (29)
RF Jason Heyward (23)
1B Freddie Freeman (23)
2B Dan Uggla (32)
C Brian McCann (29)
LF ?
SS Andrelton Simmons (23)
The Braves had the best defensive center fielder in the majors in Michael Bourn, and Upton has been viewed as a plus at his position, as well, something you need in spacious Turner Field.
Atlanta signed Upton to the biggest free-agent contract in its history in spite of a lot of numbers and concerns that have been red-flagged in other organizations.
1. His declining on-base percentage, which has dropped almost 100 points over the past six seasons.
2007: .386
2008: .383
2009: .313
2010: .322
2011: .331
2012: .298
2. The strikeouts. Upton has racked up 934 over his past six seasons, in part because of his acute struggles against power pitchers. If you use the definition provided by Baseball-reference.com -- the top third of the pitchers in the league in strikeouts plus walks -- Upton hit .168 against power pitchers last year, with no homers in 121 plate appearances. After Wednesday's signing, rival evaluators mused over Fredi Gonzalez's challenge of trying to place Dan Uggla and Upton in the same lineup, given that Uggla is a very similar hitter to Upton -- streaky, with a lot of strikeouts.
3. His declining defensive metrics. There is no perfect measure of defense, but FanGraph's UZR/150 evaluation of Upton is right in line with more advanced metrics used by individual teams.
2007: 7.0
2008: 8.4
2009: 7.5
2010: 1.9
2011: 1.6
2012: -3.2
To repeat: Defensive metrics are tricky, and it may well be that the Braves had a much stronger evaluation of Upton.
4. The peaks and the valleys. His offense comes in bursts, and rival scouts have thought for years that Upton tends to get down on himself. In recent years, the Rays were open to listening to offers for Upton, as he got more expensive, and no team -- not the Braves, not some other club -- aggressively moved on him.
This whopper investment by Atlanta seems incongruous with how the industry has viewed Upton in recent seasons, and you wonder if the Braves might've been better off chasing Chris Young -- who was acquired by Oakland from Arizona a few weeks ago -- in a deal earlier this offseason. His age (29) and production has been very similar to that of Upton, he's regarded as a better defensive outfielder, and -- most important -- he's owed only $10 million over the next year, with an $8.5 million salary in 2013 and a $1.5 million buyout on an $11 million option for 2014. The Braves probably would have been better off overpaying in a trade for Young rather than assuming the risk of the massive deal with Upton.
But the opinions on Upton are scattered, and an NL evaluator offered a different perspective.
"He is the most talented player in the free-agent market and somebody I think will age well," the evaluator said. "He is continuing to improve. Most free-agent signings pay players for what they have done, but when you sign Upton, it's about what he will do.
"On top of that, things in the market are changing. Jonny Gomes just got a multiyear deal with an average annual value of $5 million, while setup guys like Brandon League and Jeremy Affeldt are getting paid between $6-8 million per year. Baseball just signed a new labor deal last year and got a lot of TV money this year. There was value in the Braves' striking early, before the market really took hold, because some of these contracts may get out of hand."
The Braves don't have a lot of outfield depth in their farm system, and they will now look to fill their left field position. Dexter Fowler could be an option as a trade target, just as Denard Span could be. They also could look to sign Shane Victorino, writes David O'Brien, although it's hard to imagine that Victorino will get anything less than three years and $27 million, given the financial shift in the sport.
Upton's Twitter account had an avatar change -- to a Braves logo, as Marc Topkin writes.
• The dominoes from the Upton signing will naturally fall toward Philadelphia now, because the Phillies were in on Upton. Now their options have shrunk, and given Upton's deal, Michael Bourn has a stronger position to ask for more, and Angel Pagan can reasonably expect a four-year deal for something in the range of $45 million to $50 million. Victorino is still on the market, as is Josh Hamilton.
The Phillies' search continues, writes Bob Brookover. Upton's signing may be a blessing in disguise for the Phillies, writes David Murphy.
New York moves
• Yankees GM Brian Cashman met with Andy Pettitte's agent at the GM meetings a few weeks ago, and Jim Murray told Cashman then that he had an inkling that Pettitte would come back for another season. The conversations about a 2013 contract started then, Murray recalled. "The feeling was, 'look, let's be prepared, let's get something in place,' " Murray said. "We worked on it between then and now, talking fairly frequently."
But what Murray did not do, for weeks, was to press Pettitte for an answer on whether he wanted to pitch in 2013. When Pettitte was ready, Murray had a sense of the deal he could get from the Yankees.
"Andy was like, 'Let's do this,' " said Murray. "If Andy's not 100 percent committed to doing something, he's not going to do it."
Pettitte is getting a substantial raise over last year.
• The Mets are waiting to hear from David Wright on their $140 million offer, writes Andy Martino, and in chatting to a number of agents and officials who aren't involved in these talks, I found them unanimous in this thought: Wright will take this offer. "How can he turn it down?" said one agent. "There's no guarantee that he'll get that a year from now."
It is completely within Wright's power to look for a better chance to win, given the Mets' troubles, and if he turned down the offer and veered toward free agency, you couldn't blame him. But the name I kept thinking about, after hearing about the enormous offer to Wright, was Juan Gonzalez. He famously turned down a $151.5 million overture from the Detroit Tigers when he was exactly the same age as Wright, 29, and then never got anything close to that after an injury-plagued season -- a decision that cost him about $100 million.
• The Pirates are going after Russell Martin. But if there's not much difference between the bids of Pittsburgh and the Yankees, the choice will be simple for him.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. Carl Pavano would like to return to the Miami Marlins, as Joe Capozzi writes.
2. The Texas Rangers traded for a reliever.
3. David Glass is willing to increase the Kansas City Royals' payroll. Here's a breakdown of the Royals' payroll, from Bob Dutton.
4. The Cincinnati Reds will have an innings limit for Aroldis Chapman.
5. The Cleveland Indians moved to cut Rafael Perez.
6. The Pirates made some trades.
7. The Boston Red Sox raided the Yankees' staff for a coach.
8. The Orioles are interested in bringing back Koji Uehara. The O's traded for Danny Valencia.
9. The Red Sox could build their next great team if they deal Jon Lester for Wil Myers, writes Brian MacPherson. Wrote here yesterday about Brian Wilson as an interesting possibility for the Red Sox. Scott Lauber has more here, but to be clear: As of now, it appears that Andrew Bailey is in line to be the Boston closer.
10. The Washington Nationals are weighing their options for their spring training home.
11. Adam LaRoche's negotiations with the Nationals have gone slowly.
12. The Oakland Athletics signed Pat Neshek.
13. The Los Angels Angels finalized their deal with Ryan Madson.
Evan Longoria keeps it under control.
Truth be told, Rays general manager Andrew Friedman doesn't really remember much about Evan Longoria from the first time he watched him play.
Friedman, in preparation for the 2005 draft, had gone to watch a college shortstop named Troy Tulowitzki and was in awe of a pregame fielding drill that Tulowitzki went through. Longoria, a teammate of Tulowitzki, had been a part of that, with the two infielders playing off each other a little bit, like dueling banjo players. But the game started and Friedman focused on Tulowitzki.
The following year, however, Friedman and the Rays locked in on Longoria, drafting him third overall and starting a working relationship that apparently will last decades, in light of the contract extension that was announced Monday. Longoria has always been precocious, Friedman said after the news conference, with an understanding of himself and what he was and what he wanted and what the team is trying to do. During his news conference, Longoria gave the impression he's someone who had spent all of his 27 years studying the business of baseball.
Friedman remembered that when Longoria signed his first professional contract in the summer of 2006, he did what all first-round picks do: going to the big league ballpark of the team that picked him before working out with the team for a day.
That day is an exciting moment for draftees, their first on-field exposure to their first set of professional colleagues. The pitchers will throw in the bullpen, and typically, they will overthrow their fastball, trying to impress. The hitters will get into the cage, knowing that all eyes of the major leaguers are focused on them, and they will try to muscle up on the ball and crush 800-foot home runs.
Not the right-handed-hitting Longoria.
"He took a very under-control batting practice," Friedman recalled. "He was hitting line drives to right field, moving the ball around. He's serving the ball to all fields."
In fact, he was so under control in batting practice that a coach walked over to Friedman and raised some concern. "Wow, this was our first-round pick?" the coach asked. "Does he have any power?"
Yes.
Along with the defense, the maturity and the understanding of the responsibility that comes with being the face of a business.
Notables
• From ESPN Stats & Information, the most wins above replacement for a position player since 2008, Longoria's first season:
Albert Pujols: 35.4
Ryan Braun: 30.2
Chase Utley: 29.1
Evan Longoria: 28.5
Adrian Beltre: 28.0
The Rays are betting on Longoria, says Stuart Sternberg. The deal carries risks for both sides, writes Tom Jones. The two sides are smart to get it in writing, writes Martin Fennelly.
• Sources say Andy Pettitte is close to finishing a new deal with the Yankees, which would be the second big domino for them to fall this offseason. Their priority has been to hold their pitching together, and they've been able to do that, re-signing Hiroki Kuroda and now (barring a total reversal) Pettitte.
• As Jeff Keppinger has gone through free agency, he has had two-year offers in the range of $7 million to $10 million. The interested teams: the Diamondbacks, Cubs and Rays. Keppinger recently got hurt in an accident at home.
• Teams are concerned about Dan Haren's hip condition -- not a problem with his back, which was an issue during the 2012 season -- and this is tempering interest in the veteran right-hander. He's incredibly respected and will get an opportunity to pitch, but whether he'll get a highly lucrative offer, in light of those concerns about his health, remains an open question.
• Some teams have looked at Stephen Drew in various capacities, but some evaluators who saw Drew in the last half of 2012 say his defense was still a work in progress, as he recovers from his devastating ankle injury of 2011.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. There is a perception among other teams that the Royals are looking to capitalize on the value of prospect Wil Myers right now -- to the point that questions are popping up about why the Royals want to trade him.
The reason could be as simple as this: Trading Myers gives the Royals their best chance at landing a good and relatively young pitcher, while at the same time allowing Kansas City to keep its developing group of young major league position players intact.
The Red Sox have discussed a possible deal with Kansas City involving Jon Lester. He is the perfect type of pitcher for the Royals to invest in: He's still in the first portion of his career, he's under contract and he has a chance to be pretty good. Plus he's left-handed.
2. Adam Kilgore examines the other side of the question of whether the Nationals should stand pat.
3. Russell Martin is getting some interest.
4. The role of a Cardinals official has been expanded.
5. The Phillies have other options if they fail to sign B.J. Upton, writes Bob Brookover.
6. The Reds have continued their talks with Jonathan Broxton.
7. Rob Deer has joined the Cubs' coaching staff.
8. The Blue Jays picked their coaching staff.
9. Jeff Keppinger broke his leg.
10. Kevin Correia is among the pitchers whom the Rockies are looking at.
11. The Giants have bullpen options other than Brian Wilson, but they still want him back, and because he might take another season to get back to what he was before. And a deadline looms Friday, Henry Schulman writes.
12. The Angels are seriously talking with Ryan Madson, and that makes sense, writes Mark Whicker.
13. Don't be surprised by the Mariners' pursuit of Mike Napoli, writes Geoff Baker.
Friedman, in preparation for the 2005 draft, had gone to watch a college shortstop named Troy Tulowitzki and was in awe of a pregame fielding drill that Tulowitzki went through. Longoria, a teammate of Tulowitzki, had been a part of that, with the two infielders playing off each other a little bit, like dueling banjo players. But the game started and Friedman focused on Tulowitzki.
The following year, however, Friedman and the Rays locked in on Longoria, drafting him third overall and starting a working relationship that apparently will last decades, in light of the contract extension that was announced Monday. Longoria has always been precocious, Friedman said after the news conference, with an understanding of himself and what he was and what he wanted and what the team is trying to do. During his news conference, Longoria gave the impression he's someone who had spent all of his 27 years studying the business of baseball.
Friedman remembered that when Longoria signed his first professional contract in the summer of 2006, he did what all first-round picks do: going to the big league ballpark of the team that picked him before working out with the team for a day.
That day is an exciting moment for draftees, their first on-field exposure to their first set of professional colleagues. The pitchers will throw in the bullpen, and typically, they will overthrow their fastball, trying to impress. The hitters will get into the cage, knowing that all eyes of the major leaguers are focused on them, and they will try to muscle up on the ball and crush 800-foot home runs.
Not the right-handed-hitting Longoria.
"He took a very under-control batting practice," Friedman recalled. "He was hitting line drives to right field, moving the ball around. He's serving the ball to all fields."
In fact, he was so under control in batting practice that a coach walked over to Friedman and raised some concern. "Wow, this was our first-round pick?" the coach asked. "Does he have any power?"
Yes.
Along with the defense, the maturity and the understanding of the responsibility that comes with being the face of a business.
Notables
• From ESPN Stats & Information, the most wins above replacement for a position player since 2008, Longoria's first season:
Albert Pujols: 35.4
Ryan Braun: 30.2
Chase Utley: 29.1
Evan Longoria: 28.5
Adrian Beltre: 28.0
The Rays are betting on Longoria, says Stuart Sternberg. The deal carries risks for both sides, writes Tom Jones. The two sides are smart to get it in writing, writes Martin Fennelly.
• Sources say Andy Pettitte is close to finishing a new deal with the Yankees, which would be the second big domino for them to fall this offseason. Their priority has been to hold their pitching together, and they've been able to do that, re-signing Hiroki Kuroda and now (barring a total reversal) Pettitte.
• As Jeff Keppinger has gone through free agency, he has had two-year offers in the range of $7 million to $10 million. The interested teams: the Diamondbacks, Cubs and Rays. Keppinger recently got hurt in an accident at home.
• Teams are concerned about Dan Haren's hip condition -- not a problem with his back, which was an issue during the 2012 season -- and this is tempering interest in the veteran right-hander. He's incredibly respected and will get an opportunity to pitch, but whether he'll get a highly lucrative offer, in light of those concerns about his health, remains an open question.
• Some teams have looked at Stephen Drew in various capacities, but some evaluators who saw Drew in the last half of 2012 say his defense was still a work in progress, as he recovers from his devastating ankle injury of 2011.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. There is a perception among other teams that the Royals are looking to capitalize on the value of prospect Wil Myers right now -- to the point that questions are popping up about why the Royals want to trade him.
The reason could be as simple as this: Trading Myers gives the Royals their best chance at landing a good and relatively young pitcher, while at the same time allowing Kansas City to keep its developing group of young major league position players intact.
The Red Sox have discussed a possible deal with Kansas City involving Jon Lester. He is the perfect type of pitcher for the Royals to invest in: He's still in the first portion of his career, he's under contract and he has a chance to be pretty good. Plus he's left-handed.
2. Adam Kilgore examines the other side of the question of whether the Nationals should stand pat.
3. Russell Martin is getting some interest.
4. The role of a Cardinals official has been expanded.
5. The Phillies have other options if they fail to sign B.J. Upton, writes Bob Brookover.
6. The Reds have continued their talks with Jonathan Broxton.
7. Rob Deer has joined the Cubs' coaching staff.
8. The Blue Jays picked their coaching staff.
9. Jeff Keppinger broke his leg.
10. Kevin Correia is among the pitchers whom the Rockies are looking at.
11. The Giants have bullpen options other than Brian Wilson, but they still want him back, and because he might take another season to get back to what he was before. And a deadline looms Friday, Henry Schulman writes.
12. The Angels are seriously talking with Ryan Madson, and that makes sense, writes Mark Whicker.
13. Don't be surprised by the Mariners' pursuit of Mike Napoli, writes Geoff Baker.
Best contracts in baseball.
If you are a fan of one of 29 franchises in baseball, Nov. 26, 2012, will go down as a sad one in your history of being a baseball fan. It was the day that you saw your dreams of watching your favorite team acquire peak-year Evan Longoria circle down the drain.
For fans of the 30th franchise, the Tampa Bay Rays, Monday afternoon was quite a bit brighter, like your birthday, multiplied by Thanksgiving, to the power of that day you found $20 bucks in the laundry. B.J. Upton is all but gone, James Shields is likely gone in the near future, but Evan Longoria, the crown jewel of the offense, is staying put.
The Rays signed Evan Longoria to a $100 million extension, keeping Longo from hitting free agency until at least the end of the 2022, which ends right around the time his birthday cake snags its 37th candle.
Longoria's first long-term deal with the Rays was an obvious coup. Even with the team having him under contract, the six-year, $17.5 million guaranteed and the three option years picked up as part of the extension (another $30 million) were a tremendous savings over what the team would have to pay him otherwise for that period. By Baseball Reference's reckoning, Longoria has 28.5 WAR through age 26, already essentially half the career of a player with a reasonable, though not a slam-dunk, Hall of Fame argument.
So, just how good is this contract? Obviously, it's unlikely to be quite the bonanza for the Rays as the first one, but even considering the fact that Longoria's coming off an injury-plagued season and there's substantial risk when it comes to projecting a player 10 years down the line, the Rays still pulled off a contract that's advantageous for the franchise's future.
ZiPS projects Longoria to have another 42 WAR left in him, enough to push him to right around 70 WAR, a number that would put him seventh or eighth all time among third basemen, depending on how you choose to treat Paul Molitor's 1B and DH time. Not too shabby.
More to the point, assuming $4.9 million for a win in the free agent market in 2013 and 5 percent yearly growth (a fairly conservative number based on the past three-plus decades of free agency), ZiPS estimates Longoria's 2017-2022 performance (the length of his extension) to be worth roughly $132 million at that point. Projection systems aren't known for rampant sunny optimism, so that's not with Longoria remaining a star, but having a very ordinary decline phase with plenty of missed time, with a .250/.338/.437 line over that time period.
Best deals
The top 15 long-term deals in MLB, based on projected value versus remaining salary while accounting for inflation.
Player Surplus ($M) left
Evan Longoria 65.4
Ryan Braun 45.0
Trevor Cahill 41.8
Matt Kemp 40.0
Dustin Pedroia 38.6
Johnny Cueto 37.9
Andrew McCutchen 37.7
Miguel Cabrera 34.7
Erick Aybar 32.3
Carlos Santana 31.9
Matt Moore 31.8
Ryan Zimmerman 29.4
Jose Bautista 27.4
Gio Gonzalez 26.4
Jered Weaver 26.0
If there's one thing pundits have done in history, it's underestimate where baseball's salaries will go. If baseball's free-agent contracts only increase by 5 percent a year over the next decade, which would be the slowest decade of growth yet for baseball, what you can buy for $10 million today should be expected to cost a hair over $16 million 10 years from now.
So, where does Longoria's contract situation stand among profitable contract situations in baseball? To answer this, we projected the expected WAR and dollar value for every player in baseball signed to at least through 2015 (see table). We also included players with 2015 options if the team would be projected to benefit by picking up the option year. Overall, we used the same methodology we used last year to calculate the biggest financial burdens in baseball.
Taken by itself, Longoria's extension would rank ninth in net surplus for the team out of 88 contracts I projected. Including the dollars Longoria is scheduled to make in 2013-2016, Longoria ranks as the best long-term contract in baseball, at a surplus value of $65 million, comfortably ahead of Ryan Braun at $45 million.
Following Braun comes Trevor Cahill of the Arizona Diamondbacks, projected to be paid $42 million less than he is projected to have made in his last two years of arbitration and then free agency. Cahill may be a surprising name, but he is due only $13.2 million over the next two years, with two team options worth a total of $25 million. Also, he's still just 24 years old and his upside remaining has to be considered in the calculation. Matt Kemp comes next at $40 million. He's just that good.
One thing that most of the bargain long-term contracts in baseball (and these include estimated arbitration awards, not simply assuming free agency) have in common is that they're young stars, signed before free agency. This isn't a new idea -- John Hart very notably was doing this with the Cleveland Indians 20 years ago -- but it's confirmation that it's still an extremely profitable move to make. Unlike inefficiencies in player evaluation, baseball's reserve system, which guarantees a team six full years of service time from a player if they want it, is a built-in advantage for teams. This trend is likely to continue, and the longer the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Angels wait to sign Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman and Mike Trout, the worse a deal the team is likely to get. The closer the riches are, the less incentive players have to sign an advantageous deal. Even those pernicious plenipotentiaries of penny-pinching, the Pittsburgh Pirates, got the memo and signed a deal to keep Andrew McCutchen in town (projected surplus value: $37.7 million).
On the flip side, Ryan Howard retains last year's position as the biggest financial burden in baseball -- his megacontract is a year gone, but his injury time has caused a bit gloomier playing time projection, resulting in a negative surplus value of $76 million. Alex Rodriguez retains the No. 2 position at minus-$67.2 million and Albert Pujols is next, thanks to 2012 representing a futher decline rather than a bounce-back after a down 2011.
Almost exactly 15 years ago, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays launched their franchise by signing someone else's Hall of Fame third baseman, Wade Boggs. The Tampa Bay Rays have done better and got their own. Enjoy watching Longoria over the next decade, Rays fans, because the rest of us are crying today, just a little bit.
For fans of the 30th franchise, the Tampa Bay Rays, Monday afternoon was quite a bit brighter, like your birthday, multiplied by Thanksgiving, to the power of that day you found $20 bucks in the laundry. B.J. Upton is all but gone, James Shields is likely gone in the near future, but Evan Longoria, the crown jewel of the offense, is staying put.
The Rays signed Evan Longoria to a $100 million extension, keeping Longo from hitting free agency until at least the end of the 2022, which ends right around the time his birthday cake snags its 37th candle.
Longoria's first long-term deal with the Rays was an obvious coup. Even with the team having him under contract, the six-year, $17.5 million guaranteed and the three option years picked up as part of the extension (another $30 million) were a tremendous savings over what the team would have to pay him otherwise for that period. By Baseball Reference's reckoning, Longoria has 28.5 WAR through age 26, already essentially half the career of a player with a reasonable, though not a slam-dunk, Hall of Fame argument.
So, just how good is this contract? Obviously, it's unlikely to be quite the bonanza for the Rays as the first one, but even considering the fact that Longoria's coming off an injury-plagued season and there's substantial risk when it comes to projecting a player 10 years down the line, the Rays still pulled off a contract that's advantageous for the franchise's future.
ZiPS projects Longoria to have another 42 WAR left in him, enough to push him to right around 70 WAR, a number that would put him seventh or eighth all time among third basemen, depending on how you choose to treat Paul Molitor's 1B and DH time. Not too shabby.
More to the point, assuming $4.9 million for a win in the free agent market in 2013 and 5 percent yearly growth (a fairly conservative number based on the past three-plus decades of free agency), ZiPS estimates Longoria's 2017-2022 performance (the length of his extension) to be worth roughly $132 million at that point. Projection systems aren't known for rampant sunny optimism, so that's not with Longoria remaining a star, but having a very ordinary decline phase with plenty of missed time, with a .250/.338/.437 line over that time period.
Best deals
The top 15 long-term deals in MLB, based on projected value versus remaining salary while accounting for inflation.
Player Surplus ($M) left
Evan Longoria 65.4
Ryan Braun 45.0
Trevor Cahill 41.8
Matt Kemp 40.0
Dustin Pedroia 38.6
Johnny Cueto 37.9
Andrew McCutchen 37.7
Miguel Cabrera 34.7
Erick Aybar 32.3
Carlos Santana 31.9
Matt Moore 31.8
Ryan Zimmerman 29.4
Jose Bautista 27.4
Gio Gonzalez 26.4
Jered Weaver 26.0
If there's one thing pundits have done in history, it's underestimate where baseball's salaries will go. If baseball's free-agent contracts only increase by 5 percent a year over the next decade, which would be the slowest decade of growth yet for baseball, what you can buy for $10 million today should be expected to cost a hair over $16 million 10 years from now.
So, where does Longoria's contract situation stand among profitable contract situations in baseball? To answer this, we projected the expected WAR and dollar value for every player in baseball signed to at least through 2015 (see table). We also included players with 2015 options if the team would be projected to benefit by picking up the option year. Overall, we used the same methodology we used last year to calculate the biggest financial burdens in baseball.
Taken by itself, Longoria's extension would rank ninth in net surplus for the team out of 88 contracts I projected. Including the dollars Longoria is scheduled to make in 2013-2016, Longoria ranks as the best long-term contract in baseball, at a surplus value of $65 million, comfortably ahead of Ryan Braun at $45 million.
Following Braun comes Trevor Cahill of the Arizona Diamondbacks, projected to be paid $42 million less than he is projected to have made in his last two years of arbitration and then free agency. Cahill may be a surprising name, but he is due only $13.2 million over the next two years, with two team options worth a total of $25 million. Also, he's still just 24 years old and his upside remaining has to be considered in the calculation. Matt Kemp comes next at $40 million. He's just that good.
One thing that most of the bargain long-term contracts in baseball (and these include estimated arbitration awards, not simply assuming free agency) have in common is that they're young stars, signed before free agency. This isn't a new idea -- John Hart very notably was doing this with the Cleveland Indians 20 years ago -- but it's confirmation that it's still an extremely profitable move to make. Unlike inefficiencies in player evaluation, baseball's reserve system, which guarantees a team six full years of service time from a player if they want it, is a built-in advantage for teams. This trend is likely to continue, and the longer the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Angels wait to sign Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman and Mike Trout, the worse a deal the team is likely to get. The closer the riches are, the less incentive players have to sign an advantageous deal. Even those pernicious plenipotentiaries of penny-pinching, the Pittsburgh Pirates, got the memo and signed a deal to keep Andrew McCutchen in town (projected surplus value: $37.7 million).
On the flip side, Ryan Howard retains last year's position as the biggest financial burden in baseball -- his megacontract is a year gone, but his injury time has caused a bit gloomier playing time projection, resulting in a negative surplus value of $76 million. Alex Rodriguez retains the No. 2 position at minus-$67.2 million and Albert Pujols is next, thanks to 2012 representing a futher decline rather than a bounce-back after a down 2011.
Almost exactly 15 years ago, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays launched their franchise by signing someone else's Hall of Fame third baseman, Wade Boggs. The Tampa Bay Rays have done better and got their own. Enjoy watching Longoria over the next decade, Rays fans, because the rest of us are crying today, just a little bit.
- Nov 18, 2007
- 28,107
- 9,249
I love how there are two articles in the same post that completely contradict each other.
"BJ Upton deal a win for Atlanta"
and then
"Braves take a gamble with Upton"
Didnt read the articles yet. Just thought that was funny.
"BJ Upton deal a win for Atlanta"
and then
"Braves take a gamble with Upton"
Didnt read the articles yet. Just thought that was funny.
- May 30, 2006
- 25,304
- 13,356
On what planet is BJ Upton the best position player available this offseason?
- Nov 14, 2007
- 8,956
- 39
I like Upton but hell, 75 mill for him? No ******g thanks.
The potential argument can't be used. He's been in the league way too long. Feasting on those NL arms compared to the AL east will help, but he got paaaaaiidddddd.
Crazy to me, I wouldn't have ever given him bread like that.
The potential argument can't be used. He's been in the league way too long. Feasting on those NL arms compared to the AL east will help, but he got paaaaaiidddddd.
Crazy to me, I wouldn't have ever given him bread like that.
I can see it. But a lot of people don't realize how incredibly hard it is to hit for power in Tampa. I think he'll hit at least 30 next year. Like the article said, you're getting $15mm for his 4 prime years and not paying for any of his decline years. I'll give him 5 years before I give Josh 5 years and I love Hamilton. He'll always be average defense with 30/30 speed and power with low BA.
- Apr 15, 2005
- 11,588
- 837
jumpmanfromdabay
Banned
- Jan 25, 2008
- 25,730
- 2,900
Demand Span to Nats 
jumpmanfromdabay
Banned
- Jan 25, 2008
- 25,730
- 2,900
DP
Last edited:
jumpmanfromdabay
Banned
- Jan 25, 2008
- 25,730
- 2,900
Demand Span to Nats
- Jul 14, 2003
- 7,843
- 4,881
Span for RHP Alex Meyer, thank god Minnesota got some pitching. Now only 10 more to go...
Last edited:
lightweight champion
Banned
- Jun 23, 2007
- 13,481
- 5,271
Didn't you know? Dickey, Gonzalez, Strasburg, Zimmerman, Clippard, Storen Medlen, Halladay, Hamels, Lee, Minor, Hudson, Venters, O'Flaherty ,and Kimbrel don't stand a chance of putting out BJ Upton.AL East arms?
Them boys got a logjam in the OF!Demand Span to Nats
jumpmanfromdabay
Banned
- Jan 25, 2008
- 25,730
- 2,900
Phillies going to be in 3rd or lower for next couple of season
- Dec 5, 2008
- 6,463
- 1,844
I like the Span move, it'll keep Harper in left where he won't be running as hard and have as much wear and tear in CF. I guess this means LaRoche is gone, which is sad cause he played so well for us this year. I wish him all the best, and hope Morse can continue to hit the ball like he has the last two years.
- Status
