2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions

[pacmagic2002]

Not really interested in any of the FA`s for the Cardinals besides Sean Marshall............We need a better left hander. (or maybe matheny needs to use the leftys in the pen as SPECIALISTS instead of relievers that face righties and lefties.)

Im more interested in how Oscar Tavares, Shelby Miller, Matt Adams and Trevor Rosenthal will look coming into sprint training...........REALLY excited about Tavares!!!!!

Rosenthal was throwing GAS this post season..........dude consistently threw 98-100 for strikes.

Tavares is a slugger.....but seems a bit frail for his numbers......doesnt LOOK like he has much power but he hit .321, 23 HR, 94 RBI and 153 hits in 124 games this season for Double A.

Next year, if he hits early in the AAA league and can show he is consistent in the outfield, he will be in the majors by July if someone in the outfield gets injured. (or beltran does good and our record sucks and trade beltran for someone useful, like a REAL second baseman.)

 

[wildkycat]

did the Cubs **** up that trade? something about not running it by Marmol in time?

Billy Hamilton apparently made a nice catch in CF in the AZ league all-star game... was timed at 3.3 seconds to first on a bunt... and stole 3rd on a throw back to the pitcher. they say he'll be invited to ST but still at least a year away.

 

[jumpmanfromdabay]

Still can't believe A's resign Colon

 

[Johnny_Cakes]

Still can't believe A's resign Colon

I don't like it, but he provides solid depth for the rotation and that's what kept us in the playoff hunt.

 

[jumpmanfromdabay]

Still can't believe A's resign Colon

I don't like it, but he provides solid depth for the rotation and that's what kept us in the playoff hunt.

Does this mean that McCarthy is not returning? I hope they bring him back

 

[Johnny_Cakes]

I think McCarthy will be back, on a multi-year deal for ~5M a year.

 

[proshares]

Don’t Forget About Denard Span.

Spoiler: Warning: Spoiler!

The trade and free agent markets are flush with competent centerfielders this offseason. While Josh Hamilton and Michael Bourn are the marquee free agents, the second, third and even fourth tiers of conceivably available centerfielders features players capable of starting for many teams.

B.J. Upton is the most frequently mentioned player after Hamilton and Bourn. Angel Pagan — perhaps the most underrated player in the game — has also garnered plenty of attention in recent weeks. Before getting traded to Oakland, Chris Young was gaining recognition as a potential trade target, and his arrival could put Coco Crisp back on the market. The Angels’ Peter Bourjos plays the position better than mostly everyone in baseball, but he’s blocked by perhaps the best player in the game. Shane Victorino presents an interesting case — as one of the best all-around players at the position — but one who is getting older and coming off of one of his worst seasons.

Denard Span isn’t discussed as much as a potential trade target, but he combines some of the best attributes of everyone mentioned above: He fields the position terrifically, he’s a very good baserunner, he has a high career walk rate and a wRC+ 5% better than the league. He’s also signed to a team-friendly contract.

There’s certainly risk in acquiring him — his health has been questionable during the last two seasons — and the Twins will surely look to bring back a significant haul. But he’s also an underrated player, and he represents the type of cost-effective option teams wary of the Hamilton’s, Bourn’s and Upton’s should seriously pursue.

Span has played in just 198 games over the last two seasons. He missed most of the 2011 season with a recurring case of vertigo brought about by a previous concussion. He spent time on the shelf this past season with a shoulder injury. An initial MRI on his shoulder was delayed due to his claustrophobia, and his injury followed a common theme with former trainer Rick McWane: Span was disabled for over a week before the team actually placed him on the disabled list. When healthy, he is a heck of a baseball player, but he simply hasn’t been on the field as often as many of the other available centerfielders.

Span has a career 105 wRC+ and .332 wOBA. He averages a +5 fielding rating and a +3 baserunning mark per season. His career walk rate is just shy of 10%, and he only strikes out 12% of the time. Span is fast, athletic, patient, productive and inexpensive.

Throughout his five major league seasons he has averaged 3.2 WAR. That figure rises to right around 4 WAR when scaled to 150 games. Health is a concern, but the talent is obvious, and he is more than worth his contract even if he misses half of the season. That’s clearly not an ideal scenario, but he has still tallied over 2 WAR in his injury-shortened seasons. Heading into his age-29, season, Span’s value has rebounded after a strong campaign. He hit .283/.342/.395 last season, with a 105 wRC+, .325 wOBA, +9 Fld and +3 BsR. His 3.9 WAR marked a return to his pre-injury productivity and helped calm concerns that he was turning into a perpetually-injured player.

He makes $4.75 million next season, $6.5 million in 2014, and has a $9 million option for 2015 that has a $0.5 million buyout clause. At the minimum, the Twins or an acquiring team are on the hook for two years and $11.75 million. At the most, Span is signed for three years and $20.25 million, an average annual value of slightly less than $7 million for a player with a floor of 2.5 WAR and a likely ceiling in the 4-4.5 WAR range.

His contract isn’t comparable to standard free agent deals, because he signed his five-year pact before becoming arbitration-eligible, but the rates are still very reasonable relative to his actual and potential production.

It’s impossible to truly gauge his value, especially now, without comparing him to his up-the-middle colleagues. Health has limited his action since 2011, but he still proves comparable to Bourn over the last two seasons. Bourn has played in 313 games and has a .325 wOBA, 104 wRC+ and +16 Fld. Span, in 198 games, has a .319 wOBA, 100 wRC+ and +17.5 Fld. Bourn has him bested on the basepaths, and has provided more value, but the difference between the two isn’t so severe that one is worth upwards of $80 million over five years while the other is mentioned after the fact as a possible trade target.

Looking solely at the last two years eliminates some of Span’s more productive seasons, but comparing him to other centerfielders throughout the course of his five-year career sheds more light on his value:

Name G wOBA wRC+ Fld WAR
Shane Victorino 735 0.342 110 10 21.3
Michael Bourn 749 0.314 93 48 20.3
B.J. Upton 742 0.328 106 15 18.9
Denard Span 589 0.332 105 25 15.9
Chris Young 707 0.331 97 24 15.0

Span has played in by far the fewest games, yet fares favorably in the rate categories, has the 2nd-highest fielding rating — a counting stat — and it’s easy to see that he would have finished with more WAR had he stayed on the field. He hasn’t, which is one of the reasons the Twins may be more interested in selling him, especially after a very solid 2012 season.

Many of the players mentioned more frequently then Span are better than him, for one reason or another, with health as one of the primary reasons. However, his numbers are comparable to several others available on the market, and he’ll likely cost much less in terms of dollars or the value of prospects surrendered to acquire him. Some team is going to ink Bourn to a very lucrative contract and Upton will probably sign for at least $52 million over four years. Span could come close to matching their overall production for a solid prospect or two and $11.25 million. He isn’t the most popular name on the market, but he has the potential to provide a team with the most bang for their buck.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Toronto Blue Jays Top 15 Prospects (2012-13).

Spoiler: Warning: Spoiler!

The Toronto Blue Jays organization boasts some impressive depth that stretches well beyond the 15 best prospects listed below. There were at least another 10-12 prospects legitimately in the running for the 10-15 spots on this list.


#1 Travis D’Arnaud (C)



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
23 303 93 21 16 19 59 1 .333 .380 .595 .415

Opening Day Age: 24
2012 Level: AAA
Acquired: Trade (2009)
Projected 2013 Level: AAA/MLB

The young catcher entered 2012 as the Jays’ top prospect and he did nothing to change the lofty status, although a knee injury ended his season prematurely in June. Had he not been injured d’Arnaud likely would have made his big league debut when MLB incumbent J.P. Arencibia suffered a fracture in his hand. d’Arnaud has the potential to be both an above-average hitter and fielder. One talent evaluator said the prospect was likely ready for the big leagues but stressed his value was behind plate and that it wasn’t overly likely that he would see time at other positions in an effort to get his bat into the lineup.

Despite Arencibia’s offensive challenges the organization remains committed to him as the starter behind the plate because of the trust he’s built up with the pitching staff. The organization also recently re-signed backup Jeff Mathis to a two-year contract extension (plus an option) suggesting that d’Arnaud could become trade bait as the organization is openly working to improve the big league club – especially the pitching staff. When I saw d’Arnaud play I was a little surprised by his lack of energy on the field – both on offense and defense. With that said, he showed good athleticism sliding to his right to block a wild pitch and also while fielding a ball out in front of home plate. If he’s still in the organization in April of 2013, d’Arnaud will head back to triple-A at the new affiliation in Buffalo and will look to continue polishing his game while awaiting a big-league opening.

Additional Notes

After four-plus years writing about prospects from a first hand perspective, Travis D’Arnaud is still the best all-around catching prospect I’ve seen in person. If he can produce like Ryan Doumit (.275/.320/.461) with league average defense behind the plate, he’s a definite upgrade over incumbent JP Arencibia who could be flipped to fill a need elsewhere. (Mike Newman)


#2 Aaron Sanchez (P)



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Age G GS IP H HR K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP
20 25 18 90.1 64 3 9.66 5.08 2.49 3.41

Opening Day Age: 20
2012 Level: A
Acquired: 2010 draft (34th overall)
Projected 2013 Level: A+

Sanchez, the 34th overall pick of the 2010 amateur draft, spent the majority of 2012 pitching in low-A ball at the age of just 19. Despite his youth, he overpowered the older competition with a strikeout rate of 9.66 K/9 and just 64 hits allowed in 90.1 innings. Healthy all season, Sanchez’s innings were limited by Toronto’s development plan that relies on tandem starters in the lower levels of the system. The right-hander has elite stuff, including a fastball that can hit the upper 90s, but his command and control are currently below average. One talent evaluator asked about Sanchez, though, wasn’t worried because his pitches have so much natural movement to them and he’s still learning to harness his pitches after his fastball jumped a full grade between 2011 and ’12. The evaluator said the California native could still be a very good pitcher even if his command/control doesn’t improve, suggesting he could be an average big leaguer pitcher with 40 control and a potential star with 50 control. The same evaluator said Sanchez’s solid delivery and arm action should help him harness the ball better as he grows as a pitcher and gains more experience. He also said the young pitcher could end up with three plus pitches (fastball, curveball, changeup).

Additional Notes

In conversations with scouts at the ballpark, no prospect generated more buzz than right-hander Aaron Sanchez. Player comps included Matt Garza on the low end and Justin Verlander, “if everything broke just right.” Another scout mentioned he was shocked he lasted so long in the 2010 draft after seeing him pitch in person. (Mike Newman)


#3 Noah Syndergaard (P)



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Age G GS IP H HR K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP
19 27 19 103.2 80 3 10.59 2.69 2.60 2.21

Opening Day Age: 20
2012 Level: A
Acquired: 2010 draft (38th overall)
Projected 2013 Level: A+/AA

Syndergaard has come a long way since being considered a “signability pick” during the 2010 draft. A late bloomer in high school, the tall Texan’s velocity now sits in the mid-to-upper 90s and can touch triple-digits. He also possesses above-average control for both his age and experience level. The issue with the right-hander, though, is his secondary stuff. Both his curveball and changeup currently grade out as below average and questions remain about their future potential. A talent evaluator asked about Syndergaard’s secondary stuff commented, “The curveball has come a long, long way… it is, at times, average,” He also stated that the young pitcher is toying with a slider and referred the changeup as “OK.” If the secondary pitches don’t improve then Syndergaard could develop into a shut-down, high-leverage reliever who could dominate on the strength of his ground-ball-inducing fastball. When I saw him pitch in May it looked like he was getting out in front of the curveball and dragging his arm behind him – making it almost impossible for him to throw it for strikes. He also was not doing a good job of holding base runners. The tall Texan should move up to Dunedin in 2013.

Additional Notes

One scout I spoke to commented Syndergaard’s fastball had the potential to be “Mat Latos Good.” And while that’s high praise, his secondary offerings lagged significantly behind earning a high leverage reliever projection from this particular contact. The number three ranking is deserved if one believes Syngergaard develops into a mid-rotation starter. If not, then Osuna, Nicolino and Norris should be higher than the big right-hander. (Mike Newman)


#4 Roberto Osuna (P)



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Age G GS IP H HR K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP
16 12 9 43.2 32 2 10.10 3.09 2.27 2.79

Opening Day Age: 18
2012 Level: R+/A-
Acquired: 2011 international FA
Projected 2013 Level: A/A+

Osuna rose up the depth charts more than any other prospect in the Jays system in 2012 and the organization now considers him as valuable as fellow young hurlers Aaron Sanchez, Noah Syndergaard, and Justin Nicolino. The teenaged Mexican hurler burst onto the prospect landscape when he struck out 13 batters and allowed just one hit in 5.0 innings of work during his debut in the Northwest League in late July. He’s a big, strong 17-year-old who spent part of 2011 pitching in the Mexican League against players capable of playing at the double-A and triple-A level. Osuna’s fastball gained a full grade between signing in 2011 and opening the ’12 season. He regularly sat 93-95 mph with his fastball after previously scraping 90. One talent evaluator saw him hit 96-97 mph with Nicolino’s pitchability. “He’s absolutely legit,” was the comment given. Watching Osuna pitch reminds me of a young Bartolo Colon, a former Montreal Expos pitcher. When I saw him, Osuna struck out nine batters in 5.0 innings in the Northwest League finals, and allowed just two hits. He worked quickly, showed good command and is mature beyond his years. He seemed to favor the curveball to the changeup but I felt the latter pitch was better on that night. Osuna will likely move up to the Midwest League in 2013 – although he’ll be just 18 – but will be on the same restrictive innings program that the young starting pitching staff in Lansing was on in 2012. He has the ceiling of a No. 2 or 3 starter.


#5 Justin Nicolino (P)



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Age G GS IP H HR K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP
20 28 22 124.1 111 6 8.61 1.52 2.46 2.54

Opening Day Age: 21
2012 Level: A
Acquired: 2010 draft (2nd round)
Projected 2013 Level: A+/AA

The 2010 amateur draft could go down as one of the best in the history of the Toronto Blue Jays organization thanks to the plethora of high-ceiling arms that includes Nicolino, Aaron Sanchez, and Noah Syndergaard, as well as Sean Nolin, Sam Dyson, and Asher Wojciechowski (now with the Astros). The trio of young arms is ticketed to open 2013 in high-A ball (Dunedin) in 2013. Although Nicolino has the least “pure stuff” of the group his pitchability and command/control give him a chance to develop into a No. 3 starter. He can still get his heater up to 92 mph with plus control. That’s still decent velocity for a southpaw and as one talent evaluator stated, “He has more velocity than most people think.” That same evaluator said that Nicolino’s changeup is a plus pitch and his curveball shows moments of being above-average, as well, and that he’s toyed with throwing a slider. The downside to the lefty, though, is that none of his pitches currently project to be a swing-and-miss out-pitch at the big league level. When I saw him pitch mid-season, he was doing a solid job of hiding the ball, which helped his fastball look faster. He utilized a low three-quarter delivery and worked quickly. Everything was coming from the same release point and his delivery was smooth and easy. Nicolino showed some athleticism by fielding his position well.


#6 Jake Marisnick (OF)



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
21 607 134 32 8 40 116 27 .250 .319 .391 .326

Opening Day Age: 22
2012 Level: A+/AA
Acquired: 2009 draft (3rd round)
Projected 2013 Level: AA

Signed for $1 million as a third round draft pick in 2009, Marisnick was placed on the fast track in 2012, playing at both high-A (Dunedin) and double-A (New Hampshire). The athletic outfielder produced respectable numbers prior to his promotion to double-A but then struggled against the more advanced pitching, producing a 74 wRC+ (well below league average) in 223 at-bats. Even prior to his big payday there were questions about Marisnick’s bat but one talent evaluator was not worried and stated that the organization re-worked his swing twice during the season, including right after his promotion to double-A. He also added that Marisnick was definitely the best athlete in the system and as good defensively as current Jays outfielder Anthony Gose – just not as flashy. “He’s a physical specimen,” the evaluator said of Marisnick. “He has a lot of ability and tools.” The organization sent the center-field prospect to the Arizona Fall League to continue to get comfortable with the new mechanics of his swing and the talented evaluator commented, “I expect him to go off next year in double-A.” When I saw Marisnick play he displayed good range in the outfield but got some poor reads on balls hit to him. Luckily, he has enough speed to make up for late reads and poor routes until he smoothes out the rough edges. He looked uncomfortable at the plate and pitchers were challenging him with a lot of breaking pitches.


#7 D.J. Davis (OF)



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
19 266 57 10 5 27 70 25 .250 .355 .386 .356

Opening Day Age: 18
2012 Level: R/R+/A-
Acquired: 2012 draft (17th overall)
Projected 2013 Level: A-/A

The Jays’ 2012 first round draft pick, Davis is an electric young player with pure 80 speed that helps him both in center field and on the base paths. He played at three different levels during his pro debut, topping out at the college-aged Northwest League with Vancouver. Although most scouting reports fixate on the speed, a front office representative told me that Davis’ bat could become a plus tool with time: “It’s a simple swing and it’s quick… the power is the one tool that maybe gets overlooked with D.J. He’s got very strong hands and will show you raw power.” I personally saw him play at the end of the year in the Northwest League and his speed was exciting. He almost legged out a one-bouncer to the third baseman, who played the ball perfectly. Davis showed a well-balanced stance at the plate and has a simple load. He does tend to rely on his quick hands too much in his swing, though, and could stand to incorporate his lower half more consistently. After receiving some playoff experience with Vancouver, Davis is set to open 2013 in full-season ball with low-A Lansing. Consider current Jays outfielder Rajai Davis to be the floor for D.J..


#8 Daniel Norris (P)



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Age G GS IP H HR K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP
19 13 12 42.2 58 4 9.07 3.80 8.44 3.81

Opening Day Age:
2012 Level: R+/A-
Acquired: 2011 draft (2nd round)
Projected 2013 Level: A

When the Jays organization lost out on signing its 2011 first round draft pick it freed up some cash to sign Norris, who was considered by some to be the superior prep pitching prospect anyway. He didn’t pitch after signing and made his pro debut in 2012 in advanced-rookie ball. His numbers may look bad on the surface – a 7.97 ERA and 44 hits allowed in 35.0 innings – but he allowed a BABIP of .367 and had a FIP of 3.80. His strikeout rate was also outstanding at 9.77 K/9 and his control rate was average at 3.34 BB/9. Norris was moved up to Vancouver at the end of the season and made two final starts. One talent evaluator liked what he saw from Norris this past season: “I saw Norris twice this year and he was excellent both times… I think the big inning got him a few times and I see the high ERA as more of a product of bad luck than lack of quality pitching (or) stuff.” The southpaw has some work to do on ironing out and repeating his delivery but his changeup made huge strides during the year and projects as a plus pitch. His fastball sits in the low 90s but can tough 94-95 mph when needed. With a strong spring Norris could move up to low-A Lansing.


#9 Sean Nolin (P)



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Age G GS IP H HR K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP
22 20 18 101.1 81 7 9.59 2.40 2.04 2.91

Opening Day Age: 23
2012 Level: A+/AA
Acquired: 2010 draft (6th round)
Projected 2013 Level: AA/AAA

One of the biggest surprises of the 2012 season was the emergence of Nolin. As one front office person stated, “I haven’t seen him on any top prospect lists yet, but he should be.” The southpaw missed some time due to injury but he blew through high-A ball with a 2.19 ERA and 90 strikeouts in 86.1 innings. Nolin, 22, also made three starts in double-A. He has a big, strong pitcher’s frame and could develop into a No. 3 or 4 starter depending on the development of his secondary stuff. He’s very aggressive with his fastball that sits in the low 90s and it can touch 93-94 mph. His curveball has a shot at developing into a plus pitch but his changeup was referred to by the evaluator as “a work in progress.” It was also suggested that, if the repertoire cannot be improved upon, Nolin could be a successful “power lefty coming out of the ‘pen.” He should return to the starting rotation at the double-A level in 2013 and, if he can stay healthy, he could reach the majors by the end of the year.


#10 Adeiny Hechavarria (3B/SS)



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Age PA HR SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld WAR
23 137 2 0 .254 .280 .365 .281 73 -2.3 -0.2

Opening Day Age: 24
2012 Level: AAA/MLB
Acquired: 2010 international FA
Projected 2013 Level: AAA/MLB

The 23-year-old Cuban is known for being a highlight-reel shortstop with outstanding range, soft hands and a strong arm.The position is currently manned at the big league level by Yunel Escobar but incumbent second baseman Kelly Johnson is a free agent this winter and his spot could be filled by Hechavarria, creating an all-Cuban middle infield for the Jays in 2013. Hechavarria saw time at third base, shortstop and second base for the Jays during a 41-game debut and his offensive skills are not suited for the hot corner at all. The right-handed hitter has some gap power but likely won’t challenge double digits in home runs even with regular playing time. Because he doesn’t use his speed on the base paths to steal bases, Hechavarria’s ceiling with the bat is reliant on his ability to hit for average but he projects to hit in the .240 to .260 range, which would make him a below average offensive player and an eighth- or ninth-hole hitter. Poor plate discipline is the main issue with Hechavarria’s approach so there is some hope that he’ll improve in that area given enough experience. His outstanding glove work and run-saving ability, though, could make him a solid big league regular. Ideally, he could probably use at least another half year of seasoning in triple-A Buffalo.


#11 A.J. Jimenez (C)



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
21 112 27 4 2 5 13 2 .260 .297 .375 .304

Opening Day Age: 22
2012 Level: AA
Acquired: 2008 draft (9th round)
Projected 2013 Level: AA/AAA

Travis d’Arnaud is easily the best catching prospect in the system but Jimenez also has a chance to be an everyday big league backstop. The Puerto Rico native was considered a Top 3 round talent in the 2008 draft but slid to the ninth round due to concerns over an elbow injury. He played through the issue until his elbow finally gave way in 2012, resulting in Tommy John surgery after just 27 double-A games. Jimenez should be ready to return to double-A at the beginning of 2013 but he may have to DH until his elbow is fully rehabbed, likely in May or June. I watched Jimenez play shortly before his injury and he was utilizing a wide, well-balanced stance at the plate. His approach was clearly designed to generate line drives, rather than over-the-fence power and he was relying heavily on his hands. He was stabbing a bit at the ball and needed to stay back more. Known as a very good defensive catcher – with a strong, accurate arm – Jimenez was a little lazy with his receiving in this game. With no runners on base, he was setting up very late and didn’t give a target with his glove; he allowed the pocket of his glove to point down to the ground, rather than out to the pitcher as a target. On the plus side, he was very quiet behind the plate and gave the umpire a great look at the ball.


#12 Marcus Stroman (P)



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Age G GS IP H HR K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP
21 15 0 19.1 16 1 10.71 4.19 3.26 2.89

Opening Day Age: 21
2012 Level: A-/AA
Acquired: 2012 draft (22nd overall)
Projected 2013 Level: A+/AA

Stroman would have placed a little higher on this list had he not tested positive for a performance enhancing drug, resulting in a 50-game suspension that will significantly cut into his 2013 season. The first round draft pick out of Duke University in 2012, Stroman is an undersized right-hander whose future big league role is still undetermined by the organization. He has a compact delivery but there is some effort to it. He has relatively long legs and they’re clearly quite strong. When I saw him pitch early in his pro career he was dropping his elbow a bit, causing command and control issues. When he’s going well Stroman shows a fastball that sits in the mid-90s and also utilizes a promising slider that could have a future 65-70 grade. When I saw him pitch Stroman showed some impressive fastballs with explosive arm side run. However, I struggle to envision the right-hander as a big league starter. He has the potential to develop into a high-leverage reliever and should open his 2013 season in late May at the high-A level and could move quickly if he shows more consistency with his delivery.


#13 Santiago Nessy (C)



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
19 203 43 9 9 16 54 0 .236 .305 .434 .334

Opening Day Age: 20
2012 Level: R+/A-
Acquired: 2009 international FA
Projected 2013 Level: A

Nessy was a big ticket international signing back in 2009 but has moved slowly (by design) and spent the past three years in short-season ball. He played the majority of 2012 in advanced-rookie ball but received a late-season promotion to the Northwest League to experience playoff baseball with Vancouver, although he was overmatched in six regular season games and sat on the bench during the post-season. Nessy’s greatest asset as an offensive player is his raw power and he could hit 20+ home runs in the majors with regular playing time. However, high strikeout rates will limit his ability to hit for average – which sounds a lot like current Jays catcher J.P. Arencibia – but Nessy has better plate discipline – although it’s far from perfect and his pitch selection needs work. The catching prospect has made huge strides on his defensive game, thanks in part to the work he’s done with former big leaguer, and current minor league manager, Sal Fasano. Although Nessy has a large frame, much like Fasano did, a talent evaluator told me the prospect is very flexible and can provide pitchers with extremely low targets and an above-average arm. He was referred to as a “legit catcher” and his ability to speak English well (along with Spanish) gives him added value.


#14 Matt Smoral



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Opening Day Age: 19
2012 Level: INJ
Acquired: 2012 draft (50th overall)
Projected 2013 Level: R+

Despite the new amateur draft budget limitations in 2012 the organization managed its money extremely well and came away with some players that other teams deemed unsignable under the new rules. Smoral was one of those players and he turned his back on a scholarship offer from the University of North Carolina thanks to a $2 million signing bonus. The teenager did not play after inking his contract due to a foot injury that was suffered prior to the draft – and caused him to slide to the 50th overall pick. The lefty stands 6’7” but has good body control for his age and experience level. His fastball sits in the 89-94 mph range and he also shows a promising slider. His changeup remains a work-in-progress. Said one front office person familiar with Smoral, “I love how the ball comes out of his hand. I believe he can be explosive when he reaches his ceiling… He has a chance to be a power fastball/slider combo guy.” The organization was hoping to have him on the mound for the fall instructional league but was going to be very cautious. He should open 2013 in extended spring training before heading to rookie or advanced-rookie ball.


#15 Alberto Tirado (P)



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Age G GS IP H HR K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP
17 14 14 48.0 32 0 7.31 3.19 2.63 2.89

Opening Day Age: 18
2012 Level: R/R+
Acquired: 2011 international FA
Projected 2013 Level: R+/A-

Tirado was acquired during the same signing period as fellow Jays prospects Wuilmer Becerra, Dawel Lugo, Jesus Gonzalez, Jairo Labourt and Manny Cordova – and received the smallest signing bonus – but he could end up being the best prospect out of the bunch. After seeing his fastball range from 87-91 mph when he signed, Tirado has now seen his velocity jump to 93-95 mph. He also has a curveball, changeup and slider, which the talent evaluator I spoke with rated as his second-best pitch. I was told that the organization lowered the prospect’s arm slot from three-quarter to low-three-quarter and it added depth to the power slider. Tirado skipped over the Dominican Summer League and came to North America to play as a 17 year old, which speaks to how highly the organization views him as a prospect. With that said, he’ll be handled cautiously and will likely open 2013 in extended spring training before returning to the Appalachian League or, possibly, the Northwest League. He’s a long way from realizing his full potential and his lack of size is the biggest detractor from his ultimate value.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

David Ortiz, Red Sox Renew Vows.

Spoiler: Warning: Spoiler!

For a very long time, the Boston Red Sox were good. Great, even. Then, beginning around September 2011 or so, the Red Sox turned into a disaster. The Sox followed a poor end to the 2011 season with a poor all of the 2012 season, and it became somewhat conceivable that David Ortiz would look for a change. Ortiz was set to be a free agent after the year, and as hard as it is to imagine the Red Sox without him, maybe Ortiz would’ve been sick of the atmosphere. Just recently, Ken Rosenthal wrote that the Texas Rangers would have interest in Ortiz as a potential free-agent DH. It wasn’t impossible that Ortiz would go somewhere else, is the point.

But that’s not happening, as it turns out. Friday was the end of the exclusive negotiating window for teams and their free agents. Recently there were reports that Ortiz and the Red Sox were close to an agreement, then there were reports that Ortiz and the Red Sox weren’t really close to an agreement. But Friday, word’s out that an agreement is in place. David Ortiz is not hitting the open market — David Ortiz is staying in Boston.


As Ortiz and the Red Sox have wanted. Ortiz didn’t really want to go anywhere, and he just wanted to get a two-year contract. The Red Sox didn’t want to let such a phenomenal hitter and icon walk away, and they have plenty of resources. The Red Sox extended a $13.3 million qualifying offer to Ortiz, but the official agreement is for two years and $26 million, with an additional $4 million in incentives. Ortiz gets his multi-year deal; the Red Sox keep their offensive MVP.

Now, Ortiz was paid $14.575 million in 2012, and he subsequently posted a four-digit OPS. Maybe it seems strange for him to accept what amounts to a pay cut, but then, of course, Ortiz missed a huge chunk of last season due to an Achilles injury. He ought to be just fine by spring training, but it’s the age and injury risk that are keeping Ortiz’s deal down. On talent, he’s incredible.

Speaking of incredible, the Contract Crowdsourcing results for David Ortiz? Two years, $26 million. Just earlier Friday, Dave Cameron referred to that potential Ortiz deal as a good value, and I’ll just copy and paste what he already wrote about it:

Why no one wanted to give Ortiz a two year deal last winter is beyond me, but it seems like everyone has realized the error of their ways, and recognize that he’s still got a lot to offer an AL team who needs an offensive upgrade in a hurry. The age and injury concerns limit the length — and risk — of the deal, and at $13 million per year, Ortiz is a bargain. The lack of long term value is the only reason he’s this low.

Ortiz turns 37 in a couple weeks, yes, and he just missed a lot of games. Between 2009-2011, he missed hardly any games, and the past two years he’s been one of the very best hitters in all of baseball. There are 304 players who batted at least 500 times between 2011-2012. By wRC+, Ortiz ranks sixth, between Matt Kemp and Lance Berkman. He’s been a slightly better hitter than Prince Fielder, and he’s been a comparable hitter to Joey Votto. He’s been a power hitter with Angel Pagan‘s strikeout rate.

The strikeout rate is what’s key, here. With a player of Ortiz’s age, you have to be concerned about a decline. In 2009, Ortiz struck out in more than a fifth of his plate appearances, and in 2010, he struck out in nearly a quarter of them. But in 2011, his strikeout rate dropped from 24 percent to 14 percent, and he didn’t give any of that back in 2012. His walks haven’t suffered. His BABIP hasn’t been inflated. His home-run rate hasn’t been uncharacteristically high. Ortiz hasn’t been producing so much because of luck; he’s a good hitter who gave himself more opportunities by trimming his strikeouts. It’s not like we should expect Ortiz to get better, but the signs of performance decline aren’t in there, yet. If anything, signs are pointing in the other direction.

The long and short of it: David Ortiz is aging, and he’s just a straight-up hitter, but he’s a hell of a hitter, and he should be well worth $26-30 million over the next two seasons. FanGraphs’ own calculations put Ortiz as having been worth $32 million the last two years, and in one of those years he played just 90 games. There are a lot of changes the Red Sox would probably like to make, and there are a lot of changes the Red Sox’s fans would probably like the Red Sox to make, but David Ortiz was never something that went wrong. At this price, there was no reason to change David Ortiz.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[proshares]

What Indians should do this offseason.

Spoiler: Warning: Spoiler!

The power outage in our area north of New York City is really no big deal, relative to the devastation in other parts. You throw an extra blanket on the kids at night, relearn to make coffee in the fireplace in the morning, spend the days cleaning up branches and leaves, and you're good to go. They're telling us it may be five or six more days until the electricity is back on, and that's fine. It'll work out. We were very, very fortunate.

But with the cell service also either completely out or sporadic on most days, the information blackout on baseball moves is a much greater frustration -- for a baseball reporter, anyway -- than waiting in line for gas. So we checked into a hotel for a morning, and like a caffeine addict who reaches for a long-awaited cup of coffee, I think my hands were shaking as I got to text and dial and type for the first time since colleague Steve Berthiaume and I drove out of Detroit last week.

Some thoughts looking ahead, and looking back on moves that were made:

The Indians traded for a couple of infielders, in Mike Aviles and Yan Gomes.

Aviles is a useful player, someone you can move around. But his presence could also give the Indians' front office the opportunity to be aggressive this offseason.

Cleveland doesn't have a good farm system in the eyes of rival evaluators, and in particular, the Indians lack quality starting pitching at the big league level and in the minors.

If I were in Chris Antonetti's shoes, as GM of the Indians, I'd take a look at what the Oakland Athletics have done in recent years and follow their example -- and this is what I'd do:

1. Trade shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera

He's set to make $6.5 million in 2013 and then $10 million in 2014, before becoming a free agent. He's an All-Star-caliber player just days away from his 27th birthday, and the Indians could get a nice package of prospects for him -- especially pitching prospects -- in a deal with a team such as the A's, Seattle Mariners Boston Red Sox or New York Yankees (who could use him as an everyday super utility player at third base, shortstop or second base, as they cope with the advancing ages of Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter and the possible exit of Robinson Cano).

2. Trade Carlos Santana

He is under contract through 2016, a deal that the Indians made believing he would be their catcher of the future. But around baseball, there are growing questions about whether his future is as a catcher, or whether he will become a first baseman. There were the same questions about Jesus Montero, of course, and the Yankees traded him -- and put that positional question in the hands of the Mariners -- while his value was still high. The Indians should do the same thing, and with teams such as the Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays, Texas Rangers and Chicago Cubs all in need of long-term catching solutions, Cleveland would get really good return in a trade -- likely more pitching.

3. Trade closer Chris Perez

But the Indians should also deal Vinnie Pestano, who is their best reliever, because by the time Cleveland rebuilds its rotation to the point where it can contend again, Pestano will be far enough along in his service time when he would start to get expensive. Pestano would generate really, really nice return now, while he's still cheap, especially as teams look for alternatives to expensive free-agent bullpen options such as Rafael Soriano.

4. Trade Shin-Soo Choo

He's a free agent after next season, he's represented by Scott Boras and he's not coming back after next year. The Indians might get 80 cents on the dollar in return, but as we saw last summer, what teams can recoup in value in midseason deals is only diminishing.

5. Trade Justin Masterson

Although he had a terrible season in 2012 (4.93 ERA), he is 27 years old and will have trade value; the Red Sox know him, and have been interested, and the Cubs may, as well.

A massive overhaul like this would not go over well with hard-core Indians fans, but again, the Cleveland front office could look to the Athletics as an example. Because Oakland wasn't drawing well, anyway, the Athletics swapped assets such as Gio Gonzalez and Trevor Cahill for young pitching, figuring that its best chance to regenerate interest was to rebuild its staff. Last year, the Indians drew 1.6 million fans, which ranked 13th among 14 teams in the American League.

What does Cleveland really have to lose by trading in its best assets, and betting that it could pick prospects that could turn around the franchise in two or three years?

If the Indians just keep that same group of players and try to tinker, they probably aren't going to win, and Cabrera, Choo, Masterson and Perez will probably all be gone soon, anyway.


Issues for Angels
Remember the good ol' days -- just months ago, actually -- when we looked at the Los Angeles Angels as having perhaps having one of the deepest rotations in years?

Dan Haren is gone, after the Angels chose to not pick up his 2013 $15.5 million option. Ervin Santana is gone, after he was dumped in a trade to the Kansas City Royals.

And now the pressure on the Angels to re-sign Zack Greinke is enormous, because they don't have a lot of alternatives. Given the confluence of forces working for the pitcher now -- the fact that he's easily the best pitcher in a relatively weak market, which is flush with cash -- Greinke may well wind up with a deal right in the range of the seven-year, $144 million contract that Cole Hamels got from the Phillies a few months ago. Within the next two months, Greinke will be the highest-paid right-handed pitcher in baseball history -- by a significant margin. (Think about that for a moment: Two years ago, some big-market teams wouldn't touch Greinke because of his history of off-field issues, and now he's going to wind up being the highest-paid right-hander in history.)

Some rival executives say that the Angels' ownership isn't as open to spending big dollars as it was last winter. We'll see.


Royals' big gamble
The Royals have long been reluctant to trade their best young position players, and their deal for Santana is an early sign that they will again try to upgrade their rotation without making significant investments -- either in a trade, or in a free-agent signing. From here, the Santana deal seems like a Jonathan Sanchez redux: All of the numbers point to a decline in Santana:

ERA since 2008: 5.03, 3.92, 3.38, 5.16

Homers allowed: 24, 27, 26, 39

And here's the big set of numbers that would scare the heck out of me -- average fastball velocity, from fangraphs.com:


2008: 94.8
2009: 92.5
2010: 92.4
2011: 92.7
2012: 91.7

Look at it another way: The Angels, one of baseball's most affluent teams, which has a desperate need for rotation help, could have simply kept Santana on a low-risk (for them) one-year deal -- and they dumped him quickly.

In the face of all that information, the Royals have made him the highest-paid player on their roster for next season at $13 million.

I don't think the Royals are that far from contending in baseball's weakest division; they have a solid everyday lineup and a dominant bullpen. If they can get a couple of rotation stabilizers, they could be a 2013 sleeper -- but I don't think Santana can be that. We'll see.

The Royals claimed another pitcher, as well.


Other thoughts
• David Ortiz turns 37 in 13 days, but he has had as much real practice in his negotiations as he did in the years when he was one of the team's pre-eminent sluggers. The Red Sox have available dollars after their money-saving whopper with the Dodgers during the summer, and their ownership needs somebody to market after back-to-back disasters in 2011 and 2012. Ortiz was having a really good season before he got hurt, and finished the year with a .415 on-base percentage and 23 homers in 90 games. But if the Red Sox were back in their heyday of 2007, there is no chance Theo Epstein would have given a 37-year-old designated hitter a $26 million deal. However, the club's leadership is in a very different place right now.

The rebuilding has started, writes Dan Shaughnessy.

• Now that Soriano has opted out of his deal with the Yankees, his agent, Boras, has told others he believes he can get a four-year, $60 million contract for the right-hander.

• The Indians and Angels have a ton of common ground on a possible deal. The Angels need a closer, and the Indians have Perez and Pestano; the Indians need outfielders, and the Angels have Peter Bourjos and Vernon Wells (whose contract would have to be bought out significantly for him to be moved -- something that rival executives expect will happen.)

• Oakland re-signed Bartolo Colon. If you're wondering if the Athletics delved into Colon's PED history, well, don't bother. The bottom line is that teams really have no power to do their own testing or investigating. All they can do is wait for testing results, like everybody else, and assess the value of players -- and at $3 million, Colon is a good value. He is not the backbone of the Athletics' rotation, he's just a complementary piece, and if he's suspended again, they haven't built anything around him.


Moves, deals and decisions
1. Jim Crane remains hands on after a year on the job, writes Brian Smith. There have been significant changes in personnel in the organization -- beyond the roster alterations.

2. Qualifying offers were made to B.J. Upton and Josh Hamilton. The Angels didn't make a qualifying offer to Torii Hunter, which is a surprise; if Hunter had accepted that offer -- and it's unlikely he would have -- then he would've been a good value on a one-year deal.

3. The Pirates hired Jay Bell as their hitting coach.

4. The Rays will seek flexibility this offseason.

5. The Tigers will offer Brennan Boesch a contract because of his potential.

6. John Mozeliak has done a stellar job as the St. Louis general manager, writes Bernie Miklasz. Part of what he did well was to create operating room for Jeff Luhnow, despite Tony La Russa's low regard for Luhnow, and the Cardinals have benefited greatly from Luhnow's drafts. None of that would've happened without Mozeliak's stewardship.

7. White Sox GM Rick Hahn has an advantage: his pitching depth.

8. The Cubs pulled the plug on a possible Carlos Marmol swap, writes Gordon Wittenmyer.

9. The Twins turned the page on Alexi Casilla.

10. The Jays added Esmil Rogers at a time when Toronto fans and media are expecting big upgrades.

11. The Red Sox should trade Jacoby Ellsbury, writes Michael Silverman. They'd probably get 60-70 cents on the dollar in perceived return, though, which might not be enough.

12. Hunter is among the free agents whom Boston will consider, writes Scott Lauber.

13. Casilla would seem to give the Orioles an alternative to Robert Andino at second base.

14. Mariano Rivera told the Yankees that he's ready to come back. The Yankees can now turn to other priorities, writes Joel Sherman.

15. The Nationals are focused on a new brand of free agency, writes Adam Kilgore. Washington is talking with Mike Gonzalez.

16. The Phillies have plenty of payroll flexibility, writes Bob Brookover.

17. The Pirates have a familiar shopping list, writes Bill Brink.

18. Hamilton is reportedly looking for a whole lot of money.

19. Mike Redmond is a perfect fit for the Marlins. He's a good baseball guy; they know him and, more importantly, he knows them; and he isn't making much money, which was a requirement.

20. Matt Williams is being brought back for a second interview in Colorado. Patrick Saunders breaks down four candidates.

21. The Padres would like Haren.

22. The Mariners re-signed Oliver Perez.

Qualifying offer surprises.

Spoiler: Warning: Spoiler!

When baseball executives and scouts critique decisions by other teams, it really is part of their self-evaluation process. They try to put themselves in the war room of another team and determine what they would have done, had they been faced with a similar decision.



This is why, in the aftermath of a major decision, some executives will routinely ask colleagues they respect: What did you think of the move we just made?



Some of them probably prefer to have verbal ticker tape and rose petals thrown their way, to be reassured that the right choice was made. Others prefer 100 percent brutal honesty, regardless of whether their colleague thinks the decision was good, bad or ugly.



Over the weekend, there was a lot of debate within the industry over the decisions made to give qualifying offers to particular free agents -- offers of one year and $13.3 million -- a required step for teams to receive a compensation draft pick in return.



I heard a lot of surprise from evaluators that offers weren't made to four veterans:

1. Torii Hunter, RF



He is 37 years old, but he is coming off a year in which he hit .313 with 16 homers, and Hunter ranked seventh in wins above replacement -- ahead of Albert Pujols, Edwin Encarnacion, Prince Fielder and Josh Reddick.



Hunter and the Angels had some conversations about an extension, but the team decided to move on. "I wasn't surprised at all," Hunter wrote in a text Sunday. "I've been down this road before, and prepared for whatever happens. There are no hard feelings. Love that organization."



Hunter made $18 million in 2012, in the last year of a five-year, $90 million deal. A lot of rival evaluators thought the Angels were in a great position to gamble on a one-year qualifying offer for Hunter, in an effort to get an additional draft pick.



"He's probably going to get at least some two- or three-year offers from other teams, because he's a good player and takes care of himself," said one highly-ranked executive. "They probably would've gotten the draft pick. And the worst-case scenario for the Angels was that he would've accepted their offer -- and then they'd have a good player on a one-year deal that isn't all that expensive."



Not in the current market, when great players like Pujols make $25 million annually, and good players make half of that.



2. Edwin Jackson, RHP



After seven years in the majors, he has shown that he is not in the Matt Cain or Zack Greinke class of right-handers. But Jackson is healthy, and the 29-year-old has been relatively steady and durable, with five straight seasons of more than 180 innings. He is not close to dominant, but he has been decent pitcher.



The Nationals signed him to a one-year, $11 million deal last winter, and Washington officials say they want Jackson back. In the eyes of rival evaluators: If the Nationals were willing to pay him $11 million on a one-year deal and they still value him, why not make the tender offer and set themselves up for a possible draft pick?



In what is a weak market for starting pitching, Jackson is likely to get multiyear offers from teams other than Washington. If he accepted the Nationals' qualifying offer, he'd be paid slightly above market price -- but not much, given what Washington paid him for the 2012 season.



3. Angel Pagan, CF



Timing is everything, and Pagan, 31, had a strong season in 2012, accumulating 61 extra-base hits, 29 steals and some good defensive metrics. General managers and agents predict that he will get multiple offers of at least three years, and that the tipping point in his talks could be whether some team offers him four years or (don't be surprised) five years. If that sounds crazy, given that Pagan has only two seasons of more than 123 games played, well, keep in mind how much cash is available this winter and how few options there are in the market. There is supply and there is demand and Pagan is in a great spot to take advantage of the market forces, because he will be viewed as the cheaper alternative to the likes of Josh Hamilton and Michael Bourn.



So it was a surprise to some industry folks that the Giants didn't make Pagan a qualifying offer -- not necessarily to keep him, but to set themselves up for a draft pick.



"Even if you think he's overpaid at $13.3 million [for one year], and you think he's a $10 million player," said one NL official, "the difference isn't that much. I know the draft picks aren't as highly valued as they used to be, [but] I thought they would take a shot at getting [the draft pick]."



Said another official: "At best, you get a draft pick. At worst, you get a good player on a one-year deal."



4. Mike Napoli, C



No position has been more jumbled by one signing than the catching market was last spring, after Yadier Molina signed his five-year, $75 million deal with the Cardinals. Executives and agents have very different opinions on how players such as Napoli and Russell Martin should be impacted by Molina's deal. In the weeks ahead, we'll know for sure.



Napoli, 31, hit 24 homers and batted .227, with production that was similar at home and on the road. Some rival officials thought that the Rangers -- fast becoming one of baseball's most affluent teams -- would gamble on the one-year qualifying offer on Napoli, in what could be a win-win bet. If he had signed elsewhere, they would've gotten the pick, and if he had taken their qualifying offer, they would've locked in a one-year solution to their catching without having to pay out a huge contract.



By the way: The free-agent prospects of these four players are probably helped by the fact that draft-pick compensation is not attached to them, like an anchor. While the cost in terms of draft picks when signing a free agent isn't as steep as it used to be under the old collective bargaining agreement, a team still must forfeit a pick when signing a free agent from another team who has been given -- and turned down -- a qualifying offer.



Hot skipper prospect


Brad Ausmus has emerged as one of the top managerial candidates in the industry, finishing a close second to John Farrell in Boston's managerial search before turning down the opportunity to interview for other jobs. I e-mailed this question to him: Going forward in his work as a special assistant with the Padres, what does he feel he needs to build on as a managerial candidate?



"Clearly, the one area I am lacking with regards to managing is experience -- although Mike [Matheny] and Robin [Ventura] have shown that may be secondary," he responded. "Staying involved with the game can help this, but there's no real replacement for experience."



"I do firmly believe a manager must never forget how difficult it is to play this game. The managers who understood the patience involved are the managers who have related to the players best on teams I have been a part of, and garnered their respect.



"The role I have in San Diego has allowed me to see the other side of the baseball operations department, and allowed me to be involved in the decision-making process from a different perspective. I have learned a lot about the importance of the front office/GM-clubhouse/manager relationship, the integral role that the development team plays, and how interwoven all these departments are. For the time being, I hope to stay right where I am and continue to be part of both the on-field and front office sides of the game."



Headley market


The Padres have had some conversation with third baseman Chase Headley about a multiyear contract, but it's unclear whether the current climate is the best to make a deal. Headley is clearly a player the Padres would like to keep, and Headley is open to a deal.



But you couldn't blame the 28-year-old Headley if he wanted to get paid more like the player he was after the All-Star break, when he was sixth in the majors in OPS and No. 2 in homers (23), despite playing in the Padres' cavernous home ballpark.



And you couldn't blame the Padres if they were inclined to pay him more like the player he has been for most of his time in the big leagues -- a very good player, rather than the second-half superstar.



So it may be that for both sides, more information is needed. With Headley still two years away from free agency, and with the Padres set to bring in the fences in different parts of Petco Park, they could wait to make a deal.



The Padres' priority this offseason will be adding starting pitching, and as they assess trade and free-agent possibilities, they do have a lot of depth to work with, in the eyes of rival executives. San Diego filled its disabled list during the 2012 season, but besides Cory Luebke and Joe Wieland, San Diego expects to have many injured players back and ready to go by spring training, such as Anthony Bass, Nick Hundley, James Darnell and Kyle Blanks.



The Padres' current plan for Andrew Cashner is to have him as a starting pitcher, but the right-hander is still in the process of building up innings, so he could spend some time in the bullpen. He accumulated just under 80 innings in 2012.



Moves, deals and decisions


1. Ryan Madson wants to be a closer again.



2. The Pirates probably are in the market for a starting catcher and a pitcher.



3. Kevin Correia probably won't be back with the Pirates, says his agent.



4. The Yankees have had brief conversations with Russell Martin's agent, writes Anthony McCarron.



5. The Orioles are heading into free agency in a different place than they were a year ago, writes Dan Connolly.



6. The Mariners' payroll could grow, writes Geoff Baker.

Buyer's guide: Corner infielders.

Spoiler: Warning: Spoiler!

Corner infield might be the weakest aspect of this free-agent market, with only three true corner infielders in my top 50 and a shortage of candidates to move there from other positions. That makes the list of trade targets more important than usual; if you have a hole to fill at first or third, you're going to have to dig into your areas of depth to make it happen because money won't make the free agents more attractive.



Best values


These are players who might be undervalued, or at least not wildly overvalued, by the market this offseason. They're not the top-ranked players at their positions, which is based strictly on their future potential but not on what they might be paid and how many years they might receive.




1. Kevin Youkilis, 1B/3B: Going for a once-great player coming off an injury-plagued season is generally a sound strategy for teams looking for value in free agency because clubs are loath to guarantee such a player too many years or too much money. He's better suited to first at this point, given his knee trouble and advancing age, but even if he's below-average on defense at third, he'll make up for it with his patience and ability to make contact.



2. Jeff Keppinger, 3B: More of a utility guy or supersub who can handle multiple positions but doesn't quite profile as an every-day player at any of them, Keppinger has a very strong history of high contact rates that allows him to have value even though he doesn't walk or hit for power. He's more than capable at first, and he can fake third base or second enough to handle them on a part-time basis. He might get two-year offers, and, on a one-year deal, he'd be among the best values on the market.



3. Lance Berkman, 1B: I doubt Berkman can hold up physically for a full season that doesn't involve a lot of time at DH, but I do think he has enough left to contribute with the bat to make him worth a strong one-year offer, as long as it involves a right-handed platoon mate to keep Berkman healthy and hitting left-handed.



[+] Enlarge
Jared Wickerham/Getty Images
Chances are good that James Loney will be overpaid this offseason.

Worst values


These are players who seem likely to be overpaid by the market or who just aren't worth the 40-man roster spot they'd require.



1. James Loney, 1B: The amount of playing time Loney has accumulated since his rookie season of 2007, the last time he showed anything resembling average power, is staggering. He's just two plate appearances shy of 3000 across the past five seasons, with a composite .276/.324/.399 line after removing IBB. He isn't even good enough to be the heavy side of a platoon. But he's an Everyday Player[emoji]8482[/emoji] who can handle first base and, as a result, might get a regular job from a team that values the quantity of his experience over the quality.



2. Carlos Pena, 1B: Hey, I like walks and defense as much as anybody, but Pena is about to turn 35 and has failed to hit .200 twice in three years, with this year witnessing a dramatic drop in his power. He's worth a minor league deal, period.



3. Adam LaRoche, 1B: I have LaRoche rated the highest among free-agent first basemen, but he's coming off a peak year on offense and now sports a Gold Glove, as well, making him a strong candidate to be overpaid by the market. He's 33 years old, strikes out a ton and hadn't performed at his 2012 level in a full-time role since 2006. He could easily be a disaster if signed for three or more years.



Trade targets


• Alex Rodriguez, 3B, New York Yankees: I doubt A-Rod is even on the market, given his salary, but I can't ignore the elephant in the room. I think there's enough of a chance that A-Rod's performance woes stem from his hip and leg issues that it's worth it for the Yankees to keep him rather than essentially paying him to play for someone else; you could see in the postseason that he was struggling to rotate his hips and was left largely swinging with his hands, generating no power.



If the lack of mobility is a permanent feature, however, his value starts to approach nil, which has to make potential suitors very wary -- if the Yankees are willing to give him up, what do they know about his hip that we don't?



• Mike Olt, 3B, Texas Rangers: It's rare that a prospect of this caliber should be available in trade, but when you're blocked by one of the best defenders at your position in the history of the game, you need to hope you get a ticket out of town to a starting job somewhere else.



• Mark Reynolds, 1B, Baltimore Orioles: Should the O's not wish to pay Reynolds his likely salary through arbitration, instead playing Chris Davis at first and Manny Machado at third, there might be a market for Reynolds' combination of raw power and obscene strikeout totals among teams starved for the former and willing to tolerate the latter. He has never learned to hit the slider, though, and he's a poor defender anywhere on the field.



• Kendrys Morales, 1B, Los Angeles Angels: The Angels have a slight surplus on the corners with Morales and Mark Trumbo, neither of whom is suited to playing anywhere but first or DH, both on the roster. Morales is a better hitter than Trumbo, but Trumbo has more raw power and will earn $5 million or so less than Morales, who'll be third-time eligible for arbitration and will be a free agent after 2013.



Morales mashes against right-handers but is diminished enough against southpaws that he might be best served in a platoon, or at least be a candidate for a substitution late in games, which also limits his value to the Angels. One year of Morales' potential for 30 homers and a .330-.340 OBP would be a sensible gamble for a lot of clubs with a need for offense.

Texas should let Hamilton walk.

Spoiler: Warning: Spoiler!

A team having a disappointing 93-win season may sound a bit like an oxymoron, but that's where the Texas Rangers stand after losing a five-game lead in the AL West with a week remaining in the season and being dispatched by the Baltimore Orioles in the wild-card game. With the exclusive window for teams to sign their own free agents closing at midnight, there's no time left to reflect on what went wrong in October.

Last winter, the St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers needed to make gigantic decisions about the future of their franchises because Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder had hit free agency. This year, the Rangers find themselves at a similar crossroads with Josh Hamilton, unsigned and looking for a nine-figure commitment over the next several years. Do they break the bank for a player who put up a .912 OPS in Texas and was a key part of getting the Rangers to the World Series in 2010 and 2011? Or do they move on from Hamilton, in light of his age (31) and cost, and address other needs? Here's a rundown of the pros and cons of a few of the scenarios the Rangers will -- or should -- examine over the next month.



What if the Rangers sign Hamiton? In one respect, this is the most alluring, though most expensive, solution to the quandary that general manager Jon Daniels now faces. Hamilton's an important figure in Texas Ranger history, one of the key contributors to the franchise's biggest run of success since coming into existence in 1961. It's not easy to replace 43 home runs, and with the interminable Michael Young contract finally running its course after 2013, there will be some extra dough available soon.



The problem with bringing back Hamilton is that one of the biggest pitfalls a team faces is paying players for what they did in the past, not what they are likely to do in the future. Hamilton's .285/.354/.577 line in 2012 was excellent, but he benefits from a very good hitters' park, he is best suited to a corner outfield spot at this point in his career and he turns 32 in May. The Rangers don't have the option of signing the 2008-12 version of Josh Hamilton, they can only sign the 2013-and-on version of Hamilton.



Defensive metrics don't always agree, but in Hamilton's case, they all agree that his center-field defense has slipped considerably from a few years ago, enough that even with his offense in 2012, he comes out at only about a four-win player for 2012. A team should expect to pay around $20 million for four wins paying retail value, but if that's what Hamilton can do at 32, nobody should expect him to be doing that at 35, or 38.



The ZiPS projection system has Hamilton with a 3.8 WAR in 2014 and 15.5 over the next five years. Assuming the cost of a win increasing by 4 percent per year, that would suggest a five-year, $87 million contract as fair market value for Hamilton's performance going forward. Even with the fact that Hamilton disappeared at midseason with a .754 OPS in June and a .607 in July, he's the most exciting offensive player available. And with new TV contracts, too much money is floating around baseball for $87 million to get the job done.



So what's the plan if the Rangers move on? The good thing for Texas here is that it does have internal options at center field. Craig Gentry projects by ZiPS to hit only .260/.321/.349 as the full-time starter in Texas, but he's a fabulous defensive player in center and a good baserunner, enough to be a league-average player. Gentry has trouble against good righties, so the Rangers would need a time share with lefty Leonys Martin. They won't replace Hamilton's performance in 2013, but the price is right and that option gives the Rangers flexibility to make decisions elsewhere.



Colby Lewis has already been re-signed for 2013, but given that he's guaranteed to miss a significant portion of the season after undergoing arm surgery, the Rangers will be in the market for a starting pitcher. And if they save money by not bringing back Hamilton, the Rangers have the bankroll to go after the best pitcher available in the free-agent market, Zack Greinke. ZiPS projects Greinke to be worth 24 WAR over the next five years as a Ranger, meaning you can justify a contract well past $100 million territory from an objective standpoint.



Another benefit of not signing Hamilton is that it would give the team more flexibility to deal with the logjam in the middle infield. With more resources available, the Rangers can more easily either explore a long-term contract extension with Elvis Andrus, assuming that they don't trade him over the winter. Andrus is a three- to four-win player and is very likely going to cost $15-20 million a year starting in 2015.



Sometimes, a team has to move forward without its franchise player. The Rangers have reached that point with Josh Hamilton. As difficult as it can be to part with a piece of your team's history, it's time for the team and Hamilton to go their separate ways.

Four standouts from Jupiter showcase.

Spoiler: Warning: Spoiler!

The Perfect Game World Wood Bat Association World Championship in Jupiter, Fla. is the final major event of the showcase circuit, allowing scouts to see many of the top high school players in the 2013 draft class in game situations. Nearly 100 travel teams competed in the tournament that was won by perennial power East Cobb Baseball from the Atlanta area.



With the format being competitive games with no showcase elements (60-yard dash, batting practice) or even infield practice before games, the players that improve their stock are doing it with game performance. While this tournament consists only of game situations, putting too much weight on a weekend of (possibly fluky) performance over betting long-term on big tools can be problematic.



All that said, four hitters performed better than expected at the tournament and possess high-round tools that allow you to rightfully move them up draft boards after a good weekend. Three of the four are from the Atlanta area: outfielders Josh Hart and Terry McClure along with shortstop Wesley Jones while the fourth is an outfielder from Texas, Billy McKinney.

Keith Law and I both saw Hart in his junior season as he played with Oakland's supplemental first-round pick Matt Olson on Baseball America's No. 1 ranked high school team in the country, Parkview High (Jeff Francoeur's alma mater). Last year, Hart was a speedy, compact center fielder with a simple contact stroke and solid feel for the game. He's grown and gotten stronger since then -- he's listed at 6-3, 190 -- and seems to have taken a step forward across the board. Hart is an easy plus runner whose instincts allow him to track down anything in center field. His excellent first step and above-average arm give him an above-average defensive package in center field but he has stepped up his game at the plate as well.



While his below-average raw power isn't a big part of his game, Hart can slash line drives to any part of the field with a direct bat path and good bat speed from the left side. He's also improved his plate discipline and showed an ability to hit pitches where they are pitched in any part of the zone. Hart's workmanlike batting line for the tournament: 10-for-22 with a double, a triple, five walks and three stolen bases.



Scouts shouldn't have trouble getting a feel for Hart as he's been a showcase staple and Parkview's schedule last season included the loaded NHSI tournament, while the local talent he faced included Atlanta Braves first-rounder Lucas Sims, and top 2013 outfield prospects Clint Frazier and Austin Meadows. Hart's overall package is a polished, leadoff-hitting lefty with plus hit, run and defensive tools and a long track record that could see him sneak into the first round come June.



Hart's East Cobb teammate and tournament MVP, Jones, had a stronger performance and some nice tools, but Jones isn't the same kind of prospect. He put up similar stats as Hart, going f 11-for-21 with four doubles, two walks and two steals and also started the championship game on the mound, though his grade 65 arm (on the 20-80 scouting scale) doesn't translate to pitching. Jones plays shortstop now and is fine at the position, but his below-average first step and footwork aren't good enough to stick at the position long term.



Most players with this kind of toolset move to third base, but Jones, a right-handed hitter, doesn't have quite the power or projection in his frame for scouts to peg him as an everyday third baseman. Second base could be a home, but then Jones' arm would go to waste. I asked around and it sounds like Jones hasn't tried catching before, but it could be his best home if his tools translate behind the dish and I'm sure scouts will work him out there before the draft.



Jones, who is listed at 6-2, 180, has solid bat control and some bat speed to make you believe his breakout in Jupiter could be his emergence as a top prospect but his plate discipline is lacking. He will expand his zone and chase pitches at times and doesn't have the raw strength or standout bat speed to create the power to get away with it. There's still room for improvement and his Jupiter performance has him back on the top-round radar as Redan High has a history of high-end players, such as Domonic Brown, Chris Nelson and Brandon Phillips. If Jones can catch and his arm translates, he could go in the second round, but as an offensive second baseman with limited power, he's more of a third-round prospect.



McClure is one of the top center field prospects in the 2013 class but played a lot of left field in Jupiter because arguably the top center field prospect in the class, Meadows, was also on a stacked Team Elite roster. McClure grabs your attention with his plus foot speed and bat speed, but he plays a different game than Hart. McClure loads his hands a little deeper and higher than Hart and has more strength and raw power. Rather than an all-fields slasher, McClure powers the ball to the gaps and his tournament performance (8-for-18, 2 triples, 1 homer, 4 steals) bear that out.



McClure may have a little more upside than Hart, but that also comes with some risk. McClure has a loose, handsy swing with big bat speed, some raw power and some projection in his frame for more. He also shows feel for the bat head but isn't as polished as Hart, as he can get out on his front foot and will chase pitches out of the zone. McClure also isn't quite as polished in the field and has an average arm. Right now, I've got Hart above McClure but they're very close and I'm sure some clubs prefer the potential of a center fielder with plus speed and over-the-wall power.



The standout performer for the Texas Scout Team Yankees was McKinney, another center fielder. He was slashing line drives all over the field with his loose swing and plus bat speed and showed good barrel manipulation by doing it on pitches in different parts of the zone. McKinney is an above-average to plus runner who can stick in center and has the instincts to steal a few bases as well. Like Hart, he's a wiry strong, lefty-hitting leadoff type that slashes line drives all over the field. McKinney isn't quite as polished or quick as Hart but McKinney's loose swing and quick hands give him a similar upside.



The Yankees use this scout team to get familiar with Texas prep players and their recent second-round pick, shortstop Austin Aune, played for this team last year in Jupiter. Clubs are sure to like McKinney's tools, possibly in the sandwich round, and he fits the Yankees' taste for athletic, up-the-middle types.



After these four rising bats, a number of pitchers took a step forward and there were also plenty of big time bats that maintained their high rankings. I'll cover those players and give a top prospects list in the next entry.

Rumors.

Spoiler: Warning: Spoiler!

Pirates need a catcher
10:29
AM ETPittsburgh Pirates Recommend0Comments0EmailThe Pittsburgh Pirates decided not to pick up catcher Rod Barajas' $3.5 million option, leaving Michael McKenry as the only catcher on the 40-man roster.

That leaves the Pirates in the market for a backstop in what is a thin free agent crop. Rob Biertempfel of the Tribune Review says the Bucs could be interested in Gerald Laird, A.J. Pierzynski or Yorvit Torrealba, among others.

Landing Pierzynski could be a long shot if a higher-priced team such as the Yankees gets involved.

The Pirates also are in the market for a starting pitcher, but financial constraints could limit them to a second-tier free agent such as Kevin Millwood or Chris Young.

- Doug Mittler
Tagsittsburgh Pirates
Madson wants to close
10:12
AM ETRyan Madson | Reds Recommend0Comments1EmailRyan Madson is back on the free agent market without ever throwing a regular season pitch for the Cincinnati Reds. After sitting out the 2012 season following reconstructive elbow surgery, the reliever wants to return as a closer, agent Scott Boras tells Bob Brookover of the Inquirer.

Boras says "a lot of teams have expressed interest" in his client as a closer, but that would eliminate the Phillies, who already have Jonathan Papelbon.

Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post says Madson is a possibility in Washington if the Nats decide a priority is putting another power arm with Tyler Clippard and Drew Storen.

- Doug Mittler
Tags:Ryan Madson, Cincinnati Reds
Cards could shop Schumaker
9:26
AM ETSkip Schumaker | Cardinals Recommend0Comments0EmailThe trade chips for the St. Louis Cardinals could include Skip Schumaker.

Ken Rosenthal reports Shumaker no longer is assured of a roster spot since Daniel Descalso got most of the playing time at second late in the season, and Kolten Wong is the team's second baseman of the future.

Schumaker, who makes $1.5 million next season, could emerge as a consolation prize for teams that miss out on free agent Marco Scutaro. Schumaker's ability to play the outfield should add to his market value.

- Doug Mittler
Tags:St. Louis Cardinals, Skip Schumaker
Ethier's availability
9:10
AM ETAndre Ethier | Dodgers Recommend0Comments9EmailThe Los Angeles Dodgers signed Andre Ethier to a contract extension during the 2012 season, and just a few months later now ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney tweets that the club is open to the idea of trading the outfielder.

Ethier has been a fairly steady performer for the Dodgers, is now signed through 2017 and bats left-handed. He's shown 20-homer power and above-average on-base skills.

On the down side, he's 31 years old in April and is far from a star. He'll earn $85 million over the course of his new pact and probably should be playing first base due to a lack of range in right field.

Ken Rosenthal questions why the Dodgers would deal Ethier so soon after signing him to a lucrative deal.

Still, there could be a few interested clubs, especially if the trade cost is sleight due to the salary involved. Ethier's market, however, may not develop until the likes of Nick Swisher, Cody Ross and Melky Cabrera to sign free agent deals. The teams that lose out in free agency could call the Dodgers on Ethier.

Among the clubs that could be in that market include the Detroit Tigers and Texas Rangers. If the Red Sox are unable to re-sign Ross, they could show interest in Ethier if they view him as a viable defender in right field.

- Jason A. Churchill
Tagsetroit Tigers, Texas Rangers, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers, Andre Ethier
Impact of Ortiz's deal
8:59
AM ETDavid Ortiz | Red Sox Recommend0Comments3EmailDavid Ortiz will remain a Red Sox for two more years. According to various reports, the club's longtime DH re-upped for two years and $26 million.

The two sides had been negotiating for weeks and were able to fend off reported interest by the Texas Rangers.

The Rangers now have to consider other options to improve their lineup, if they choose not to bring back free agent Josh Hamilton, and it also keeps the door open for Mike Napoli, another free agent, to return to Texas.

On the other hand, Boston will continue to plug Ortiz in at DH every game, so that leaves fewer options for a lineup that could undergo a major makeover this winter, especially with the likes of B.J. Upton, Nick Swisher, Melky Cabrera and Hamilton on the open market, among outfielders.

Our Buster Olney has more on the Ortiz deal:

- Jason A. Churchill and Jason Catania



Buster Olney
New leadership in Boston


"David Ortiz turns 37 in 12 days, but he has had as much real practice in his negotiations as he did in the years when he was one of the team's pre-eminent sluggers. The Red Sox have available dollars after their money-saving whopper with the Dodgers during the summer, and their ownership needs somebody to market after back-to-back disasters in 2011 and 2012. Ortiz was having a really good season before he got hurt, and finished the year with a .415 on-base percentage and 23 homers in 90 games. But if the Red Sox were back in their heyday of 2007, there is no chance Theo Epstein would have given a 37-year-old designated hitter a $26 million deal. However, the club's leadership is in a very different place right now."
Tagsavid Ortiz, Josh Hamilton, Cody Ross, Nick Swisher, Boston Red Sox, Texas Rangers
Could the Mets deal Dickey?
8:37
AM ETR.A. Dickey | Mets Recommend0Comments1EmailThe New York Mets exercised a $5 million option on R.A. Dickey and they continue to seek an extension with the 38-year-old who is among the frontrunners for the 2012 National League Cy Young Award.

GM Sandy Alderson has referred to Dickey as one of his "core players," but the Mets have to at least explore the idea of shopping the knuckleballer whose trade value will never be higher than it is right now.

The market for Dickey, however, is an unchartered path. In Monday's New York Daily News Andy Martino reports a dozen or more teams would line up to bid on Dickey, but there is little consensus as to his trade value.

One executive tells Martino that Dickey becomes far more marketable if he first agrees to an extension with the Mets. The Mets would be asking for top-shelf prospects in any deal, a price teams would be more willing to pay if Dickey is not just a one-year rental.

The Dodgers and Rangers, two contenders looking for more starting pitching, could be among those kicking the tires.

- Doug Mittler
Tags:R.A. Dickey, New York Mets
Growing market for Kuroda
8:06
AM ETHiroki Kuroda | Yankees Recommend0Comments0EmailThe top of the free agent pitching class includes Zack Greinke and Kyle Lohse, but those clubs looking for a short-term solution will be eyeing Hiroki Kuroda, who had a solid season for the New York Yankees with 16 wins and a 3.32 ERA.

Kuroda is OK with signing a one-year contract, and could accept the $13.3 million qualifying offer and stay with the Yankees, reports Jon Heyman.

Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe wrote Sunday that the market for Kuroda could escalate if the Yankees don't act quickly. Various reports say Kuroda's former team, the Los Angeles Dodgers, cold make a strong play for the 37-year-old righthander.

- Doug Mittler
Tags:Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, Hiroki Kuroda
The Bourn favorite
7:51
AM ETMichael Bourn | Braves Recommend0Comments6EmailMichael Bourn is perhaps the top free agent centerfielder this offseason -- depending on what teams consider to be Josh Hamilton's best position -- and may have more than one big-money contender interested in his services, potentially including the Texas Rangers and Washington Nationals.

Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com opined Thursday that Bourn could ask for as much as $100 million, a steep price for a 30-year-old who does not hit for power -- but one that could be met if the Rangers and Nats get into a bidding war.

One GM told Ken Rosenthal over the weekend that B.J. Upton will get more attention than Bourn since the 28-year-old Upton is nearly two years younger.

The Braves have already made a qualifying offer to Bourn, so the club will receive draft-pick compensation if they can't re-sign him. Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reported Friday that the Nationals, who have been after a long-term answer in center, appear to be the favorite for Bourn's services.

If he signs with Washington, Bourn would lead off and play between Bryce Harper and Jayson Werth on a team equipped to contend for the World Series perennially.

Other options for clubs in search of center field help may include trade target Denard Span of the Twins and free agent Angel Pagan.

- Jason A. Churchill



Keith Law
Law's Top 50 Free Agents: No. 4 Michael Bourn

"His primary value is with his glove, as he has outstanding range derived from his plus raw speed and good instincts in center. He is the type of player who would be ideal on a team with a large center field to cover or simply one with a flyball-oriented pitching staff. He is an aggressive baserunner, with a career success rate over 80 percent on stolen bases, and he adds further value through his ability to take extra bases when hitters after him put the ball in play."
Tags:Texas Rangers, Washington Nationals, Michael Bourn, Angel Pagan, Denard Span, Atlanta Braves
Perfect timing for Pagan
7:39
AM ETAngel Pagan | Giants Recommend0Comments0EmailAngel Pagan substantially raised his free agent stock with a solid regular season (.288/.338/.400) followed by a big October for the World Series champion Giants.

Predicting Pagan's offseason value, however, could be tricky, given concerns that the 31-year-old may have been playing over his head in 2012. Our Buster Olney tweeted Sunday there was a lot of surprise around baseball that the Giants did not make a $13.3 million qualifying offer to Pagan because he's likely to get a four-year deal.

That multiple-year offer, however, is not expected to be anywhere near the annual range of $13.3 million. While the Giants want Pagan back, Andrew Baggarly says bringing back Marco Scutaro is a higher priority by the bay.

Our guess is that Pagan remains in San Francisco, but the Reds could be among the interested parties. ESPN.com's Keith Law ranks Pagan No. 20 on his list of available free agents:

- Doug Mittler



Keith Law
Angel Pagan, No. 20

"A switch-hitter, Pagan has more power and a better eye from the left side, opening his hips early when hitting right-handed, although he's comfortable going the other way rather than trying to pull pitches he can't get to. He's an above-average defender in an outfield corner but would come in average or below if asked to play center regularly. That plus running speed has helped Pagan add value through basestealing and baserunning over the past few years, although that's the kind of tool that can fade quickly as a player gets into his mid-30s. I'd love to get Pagan on a two- to three-year deal to play left and to slide over to center as a backup when needed, hitting him eighth or ninth since he doesn't get on base enough to be an ideal leadoff guy. I don't foresee more 5-WAR seasons in Pagan's future, between his age, his reliance on his legs and the potential for a widening platoon split that eventually leaves him as a part-time player."
Tags:Angel Pagan, San Francisco Giants
Ross a fit in Queens?
7:00
AM ETCody Ross | Red Sox Recommend0Comments0EmailThe New York Mets could target free agent Cody Ross to address their glaring need for outfield help, says Mike Puma of the New York Post.

Multiple baseball executives listed Ross as an upgrade over Scott Hairston, who still is viewed as mostly a platoon player.

Ross earned $3 million last season and stands to receive a substantial raise after hitting .267 with 22 homers and 81 RBIs in 476 at-bats for the Red Sox. But the 31-year-old will still be more affordable than the likes of Josh Hamilton or Michael Bourn, which could put him in the Mets' price range.

One official says the Mets' best chance to make a competitive bid for Ross would be to pool their savings if Hairston ($1.1 million), Andres Torres ($2.7 million) and Jon Rauch ($3.5 million) aren't retained.

- Doug Mittler
Tags:Cody Ross, Boston Red Sox, New York Mets
LaRoche update
6:39
AM ETAdam LaRoche | Nationals Recommend0Comments1EmailThe Washington Nationals tried to negotiate an extension with first baseman Adam LaRoche, but the veteran first baseman elected to go the route of the open market to see if he can cash in on his career season.

LaRoche, reports the Washington Post, declined his end of a mutual option with the club. Earlier this month, Adam Kilgore reported the Nats have had initial discussions with LaRoche about an extension, and the 32-year-old has dropped plenty of hints that he wouldn't mind staying in D.C. after a 33-homers, 100-RBI campaign.

Given the scarcity of free agent first baseman, LaRoche could make a pretty penny. James Loney and Carlos Pena are the next-best lefty first basemen available.

Adam Kilgore says if the Nationals cannot re-sign LaRoche, they could move Michael Morse to first base and step up their search for a center fielder.

- Doug Mittler



Keith Law
Law's Top 50 Free Agents: No. 16 Adam LaRoche

"He's also 33 and an old-man's skills hitter, with patience and power but lots of strikeouts and just one season in his career when he topped a .280 average. He's a well below-average runner and a dead fastball hitter, so any loss of bat speed could be catastrophic. For now, he's a solid player good for three wins above replacement, but long-term projections are going to slope down fairly steeply."

 

[essential1]

Hamilton wants 7 years $175 million

Who bites that bullet

 

[proshares]

 

[kevin cleveland]

LOL at trade Cabrera, Choo, Masterson, Perez, Pestano and Santana. I'm all in on moving Choo, Perez and maybe Cabrera, but get real.

But this...

• The Indians and Angels have a ton of common ground on a possible deal. The Angels need a closer, and the Indians have Perez and Pestano; the Indians need outfielders, and the Angels have Peter Bourjos and Vernon Wells (whose contract would have to be bought out significantly for him to be moved -- something that rival executives expect will happen.)

Been talking about a Perez for Bourjos deal since like July.

 

[venom lyrix]

Hamilton wants 7 years $175 million
Who bites that bullet

Insane with his injury record - someone may do it - Dodgers maybe? Angels?

 

[jumpmanfromdabay]

I just pray that Sabean doesn't give him that deal. Still rather have Pagan who is perfect for AT&T Park

 

[wildkycat]

Reds seem to be making it a priority to sign Broxton and Madson... putting Chapman in the rotation.

what's this **** i'm hearing about David Wright to Cincinnati?

 

[dland24]

I just pray that Sabean doesn't give him that deal. Still rather have Pagan who is perfect for AT&T Park

I am assuming you are saying you would rather have Pagan for the price, because saying you want Pagan over Hamilton is ******ed.

Pagan played better in 2012 than he is. Before this year, Pagan was an AWFUL defensive CFer. I would love to have him back too, but if we are talking about $12M a year, I am good. No thanks.

 

[proshares]

Reds seem to be making it a priority to sign Broxton and Madson... putting Chapman in the rotation.
what's this **** i'm hearing about David Wright to Cincinnati?

I think that started from some BS report on Bleacher Report.

 

[rawex5]

Pagan still takes awful routes. He is not worth 12-million a year and I wouldn't sign him for more than 3-years, and that's pushing it.

 

[jumpmanfromdabay]

I just pray that Sabean doesn't give him that deal. Still rather have Pagan who is perfect for AT&T Park

I am assuming you are saying you would rather have Pagan for the price, because saying you want Pagan over Hamilton is ******ed.

Pagan played better in 2012 than he is. Before this year, Pagan was an AWFUL defensive CFer. I would love to have him back too, but if we are talking about $12M a year, I am good. No thanks.

who would you like to have in CF thats cheaper than Pagan? Bourne and Hamilton are going to want way more

 

[proshares]

NL West: Road to 90 wins.

Spoiler: Warning: Spoiler!

It remains nearly four months until the 2013 season, but baseball never really truly ends. Baseball's Hot Stove League unofficially started last Saturday morning, and while the metaphorical hot stove baseball fans huddle around has been replaced by a hot Internet router, there's plenty of baseball talk to get us through the winter.



To get us rolling, with the aid of the ZiPS Projection System, we're looking at the state of each team as we enter the busiest part of the offseason, from now until the end of the year. If you haven't noticed it in the past decade, ZiPS is a computerized projection system, designed for the purpose of condensing baseball data into an objective first opinion of what the future will bring. Computers obviously can't tell us everything about a player, but baseball has a rich supply of useful objective information -- perhaps the richest of any sport -- and it can be difficult to separate what's important from what isn't. Predicting the future will always be an error-filled endeavor, but it's always useful to cut through the fog a little.



So, why is this the Road To 90? Around 90 wins is when winning a game has the highest leverage in MLB. Going from 50 to 55 wins just means you finish in last place by a smaller amount. Going from 100 to 105 wins just fattens your lead. But going from 85 to 90 wins can very well be the difference between October baseball and October golf. Under baseball's current playoff structure, 73 of the 74 90-win teams over the past decade would have gotten to play past game 162, while most teams that win 85 or fewer games watch from home.



The win projection numbers below represent the mean win projection for each team if they stood with their current roster, essentially representing a baseline 2013 projection as we enter the winter. We'll look at where teams stand now and what they need to do to get to 90 wins.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




San Francisco Giants
2012: 94-68
2013 projection: 84-78



As you might possibly recall, the Giants just won their second World Series in three seasons, so the franchise is full of happy feelings now. Everybody starts at 0-0 at the end of March and the Giants do have some work ahead of them if they want to make it three championships in four years.



The biggest task for San Francisco is what could amount to a total rebuild of the outfield. While the organization should like to see a better starting second baseman in 2013 than Joaquin Arias, the free agent market at the position is very weak, with only two appearing on Keith Law's Top 50 Free Agent list.



If the season started today, the Giants would most likely go with some combination of Hunter Pence, Brett Pill, and Gregor Blanco. The hopeful scenario was that prospects Gary Brown or Francisco Peguero would have developed into a replacement by this point, but both players had disappointing 2012 seasons.



The Giants probably made a mistake in not giving Angel Pagan a qualifying offer. The risks associated with him accepting were very low because signing a player to a single year at $13 million is a very different scenario than giving a player four or five years at that figure. Pagan was a marvelous pickup for the Giants and his projected .271/.320/.404, 3.2 WAR line would have done a lot to eliminate some of San Francisco's uncertainty in the outfield.



On the good side, ZiPS is optimistic about Tim Lincecum putting his 2012 behind him. The error bars on this projection are huge, with the computer being just as unsure as to what's wrong with Lincecum as the rest of us and seeing anything from a Cy Young to a 2012 repeat as possibilities. Personally, I like to err on the side of optimism with players with as much talent as Lincecum, so I'm pulling for the Freak flag to fly in San Francisco again.



The pitching is overall solid and dependable. ZiPS projects 31 pitchers in baseball right now to finish their career with 170 wins or more, and the Giants have four of them.



2013 Giants
How each key current player projects for next season.

PO Player BA OBP SLG Player ERA IP BB SO
C Buster Posey .299 .372 .482 Matt Cain 2.99 210.2 55 179
1B Brandon Belt .264 .358 .429 Madison Bumgarner 3.23 208.0 49 195
2B Joaquin Arias .256 .283 .348 Ryan Vogelsong 3.68 163.2 57 130
3B Pablo Sandoval .285 .338 .467 Tim Lincecum 3.67 188.2 78 194
SS Brandon Crawford .230 .292 .340 Barry Zito 4.31 135.2 53 91
LF Brett Pill .258 .295 .400 BULLPEN
CF Gregor Blanco .228 .320 .326 Brian Wilson 3.38 47.0 23 49
RF Hunter Pence .262 .317 .410 Santiago Casilla 3.36 56.1 24 51
BENCH Sergio Romo 2.25 51.0 11 64
OF Gary Brown .255 .314 .356 Javier Lopez 3.48 41.1 17 31
OF Francisco Peguero .262 .283 .357
3B Conor Gillaspie .256 .313 .367
C Hector Sanchez .257 .285 .373
IF Emmanuel Burriss .247 .300 .292



Los Angeles Dodgers
2012: 86-76
2013 projection: 84-78



The Dodgers have reached an unusually awkward position: They have one of the biggest payrolls in baseball, only a few spots open to make upgrades, but are not clearly one of the best teams in baseball. L.A. took some gigantic risks this summer, and already has $80 million committed -- in 2017.



Still, the Dodgers will compete with the rest of the division well in 2013, with most of the risk absorbed manageable in 2013 as opposed to several years from now. There's a lot more talent entering next season than this season, and any upgrades are likely to come at catcher or third. At this point, bringing in Mike Napoli (projected .243/.338/.454, 3.6 WAR in L.A.) or Kevin Youkilis (.252/.358/.454, 3.0 WAR) would barely be drops in the bucket, cash-wise, and may be enough to put away the rest of the league.



I listed both Chad Billingsley and Ted Lilly in the table as we just don't know which of them, if either, will be healthy at the start of the season.



The Dodgers are a strong competitor, if not exactly a model for efficient spending.



2013 Dodgers
How each key current player projects for next season.

PO Player BA OBP SLG Player ERA IP BB SO
C A.J. Ellis .248 .355 .345 Clayton Kershaw 2.56 221.2 63 233
1B Adrian Gonzalez .286 .355 .476 Chris Capuano 4.11 164.1 47 136
2B Mark Ellis .251 .308 .347 Josh Beckett 3.70 150.2 46 135
3B Luis Cruz .261 .285 .384 Aaron Harang 4.25 139.2 55 97
SS Hanley Ramirez .265 .334 .447 Chad Billingsley 3.64 167.0 59 143
LF Carl Crawford .269 .311 .435 BULLPEN
CF Matt Kemp .291 .362 .531 Ted Lilly 4.05 110.0 32 89
RF Andre Ethier .267 .343 .427 Brandon League 3.46 67.2 23 53
BENCH Ronald Belisario 3.60 64.0 26 56
UT Jerry Hairston .259 .330 .367 Kenley Jansen 2.10 64.1 28 101
SS Dee Gordon .257 .299 .317 Javy Guerra 3.88 50.0 25 41
IF Nick Punto .232 .320 .309
IF Juan Uribe .235 .291 .382
IF Justin Sellers .227 .304 .354
OF Scott van Slyke .248 .309 .411
C Tim Federowicz .232 .294 .342



Arizona Diamondbacks
2012: 81-81
2013 projection: 85-77



Arizona is one of the few teams in baseball projected to win more games in 2013 than 2012 simply by doing nothing. Chris Young and Joe Saunders are the only significant positive contributors from this season to leave the team and the Diamondbacks (and ZiPS) feel that Adam Eaton is a quality replacement for Young. There will still be playing time for Gerardo Parra and while Cliff Pennington, picked up from Oakland, won't hit any better than Willie Bloomquist did in 2012, he'll at least be an above-average defender at the position.



ZiPS is also more optimistic about Arizona's 2012 surprise pitcher, Wade Miley, than it was about Josh Collmenter after 2011, though Arizona could likely still use a Joe Saunders replacement, someone to eat a few innings and pitch somewhere around league-average. A return of Edwin Jackson to Arizona (projected 4.06 ERA) would go a long way to hedging bets on Trevor Bauer and Tyler Skaggs. ZiPS is conservative with both, Bauer because he still has some control issues to work out, and Skaggs becuase of very little experience above Double-A ball.



2013 D-backs
How each key current player projects for next season.

PO Player BA OBP SLG Player ERA IP BB SO
C Miguel Montero .267 .354 .428 Ian Kennedy 3.71 201.1 56 178
1B Paul Goldschmidt .259 .339 .468 Trevor Cahill 3.86 200.1 69 152
2B Aaron Hill .271 .326 .444 Wade Miley 3.94 180.2 47 132
3B Chris Johnson .261 .301 .424 Tyler Skaggs 4.76 141.2 57 120
SS Cliff Pennington .258 .315 .380 Trevor Bauer 4.97 130.1 85 134
LF Jason Kubel .260 .328 .485 BULLPEN
CF Adam Eaton .275 .358 .389 J.J. Putz 2.90 49.2 12 58
RF Justin Upton .275 .355 .470 Heath Bell 3.84 58.2 22 54
BENCH Brad Ziegler 3.57 57.0 20 42
C Wil Nieves .233 .269 .312 David Hernandez 3.02 65.2 26 84
IF John McDonald .249 .290 .363
IF Willie Bloomquist .265 .299 .353
OF Gerardo Parra .273 .331 .400
OF A.J. Pollock .264 .305 .361



San Diego Padres
2012: 76-86
2013 projection: 76-86




After the midway point of the 2012 season, which NL West team had the best second half of the season? Not the Dodgers or the Diamondbacks (and certainly not the Rockies), but as you may have guessed already, it was the San Diego Padres, at 45-36 in the second half, only four games behind the Giants at 49-32. The reason very few noticed is that they had already dug themselves a giant hole at 31-50.



For half a season, the Padres played the equivalent of 90-72 ball and the team's only free agent is Jason Marquis. The team's not really a 90-win team right now, but it has enough pieces in place, with the emergence of Yasmani Grandal as a full-time starter and nobody telling Carlos Quentin that Petco Park is a terrible place to hit, that they can make some noise in the division with a few moves.



The team's lineup is mostly set, so the best opportunity for improvement is the rotation. With a league-average rotation, the Padres probably finish the 2012 season at around .500, but Eric Stults and Cory Luebke were the only starters to have an ERA better than a league-average number in Petco in 2012. Stults is unlikely to repeat his 2012 and Luebke won't be back from Tommy John surgery until midseason at the earliest, but a few low-key signings by the Padres could net them some serious bang for the buck.



Petco would likely be a cozy home for Jeremy Guthrie, a gopher-ball prone player that projects to a 3.80 ERA who isn't going to demand large amounts of cash. Another fly-ball pitcher, Scott Baker, would be a tremendous candidate for a low-salary, incentive-laden contract.



2013 Padres
How each key current player projects for next season.

PO Player BA OBP SLG Player ERA IP BB SO
C Yasmani Grandal .255 .353 .396 Clayton Richard 4.18 163.2 45 94
1B Yonder Alonso .263 .336 .402 Edinson Volquez 4.08 154.1 85 145
2B Logan Forsythe .234 .325 .347 Eric Stults 4.42 115.0 45 69
3B Chase Headley .268 .350 .428 Casey Kelly 4.20 100.2 29 73
SS Everth Cabrera .240 .318 .302 Andrew Cashner 3.81 99.1 39 93
LF Carlos Quentin .259 .352 .479 BULLPEN
CF Cameron Maybin .246 .312 .375 Huston Street 2.85 47.1 13 53
RF Will Venable .246 .315 .407 Luke Gregerson 3.14 65.0 20 64
BENCH Brad Boxberger 3.48 64.2 38 79
C Nick Hundley .227 .288 .365 Brad Brach 3.61 72.1 26 76
1B Jesus Guzman .260 .322 .401
OF Mark Kotsay .259 .315 .349
OF Chris Denorfia .265 .318 .392
IF Alexi Amarista .253 .286 .358
IF Jedd Gyorko .253 .311 .398



Colorado Rockies
2012: 64-98
2013 projection: 75-87



The 2012 season was nearly an unmitigated disaster for the Rockies, with the emergence of Dexter Fowler and the power shown by Wilin Rosario very nearly the only positive news for the franchise.



The good news is that it can't get any worse and it won't. The Rockies had a rotation that was lousy on a historical level this season, but they also were extremely unlucky on the injury side, with Jhoulys Chacin, Juan Nicasio and Jorge de la Rosa all missing most of the season due to injury. With a little luck for a change, a rotation of Chacin, de la Rosa, Nicasio, Drew Pomeranz, and Alex White -- while not exactly rivaling the Giants -- will at least comfortably beat the embarrassing 5.81 ERA the team got from the starting pitching.



Even in the post-humidor days, Coors Field is still an incredible hitter's park, so the offense will remain a tad overrated, but there are no serious problems anywhere in the lineup.



Colorado's the most likely basement dweller in the NL West, but 2013 will be better. The pitching will determine what upside this organization has next year.



2013 Rockies
How each key current player projects for next season.

PO Player BA OBP SLG Player ERA IP BB SO
C Wilin Rosario .257 .296 .465 Jhoulys Chacin 4.42 136.1 61 110
1B Todd Helton .264 .355 .426 Jorge de la Rosa 4.97 70.2 34 56
2B Josh Rutledge .280 .316 .445 Drew Pomeranz 4.96 134.1 65 112
3B Chris Nelson .269 .311 .427 Alex White 5.27 127.0 58 87
SS Troy Tulowitzki .294 .362 .535 Juan Nicasio 4.48 90.1 27 80
LF Carlos Gonzalez .297 .360 .531 BULLPEN
CF Dexter Fowler .273 .366 .452 Rafael Betancourt 3.44 49.2 10 53
RF Michael Cuddyer .284 .340 .499 Rex Brothers 3.93 68.2 40 85
BENCH Adam Ottavino 4.48 96.1 42 95
C Ramon Hernandez .259 .305 .407 Matt Belisle 3.93 73.1 16 63
OF Tyler Colvin .258 .298 .491
OF Eric Young .265 .339 .373
IF DJ LeMahieu .295 .328 .379
UT Jordan Pacheco .280 .324 .383


Dan Szymborski covers baseball for ESPN Insider. He has written about the sport since 2001 for the Baseball Think Factory, where he is an editor. He is also the developer of the ZiPS projection system. You can find his ESPN archives here and follow him on Twitter here.

AL West: Road to 90 wins.

Spoiler: Warning: Spoiler!

Nearly four months remain until the 2013 season, but baseball never really truly ends. Baseball's Hot Stove League unofficially started last Saturday morning, and while the metaphorical hot stove baseball fans huddle around has been replaced by a hot Internet router, there's plenty of baseball talk to get us through the winter.



To get us rolling, with the aid of the ZiPS Projection System, we're looking at the state of each team as we enter the busiest part of the offseason, from now until the end of the year. If you haven't noticed it in the past decade, ZiPS is a computerized projection system, designed for the purpose of condensing baseball data into an objective first opinion of what the future will bring. Computers obviously can't tell us everything about a player, but baseball has a rich supply of useful objective information -- perhaps the richest of any sport -- and it can be difficult to separate what's important from what isn't. Predicting the future will always be an error-filled endeavor, but it's always useful to cut through the fog a little.



So, why is this the Road To 90? Around 90 wins is when winning a game has the highest leverage in MLB. Going from 50 to 55 wins just means you finish in last place by a smaller amount. Going from 100 to 105 wins just fattens your lead. But going from 85 to 90 wins can very well be the difference between October baseball and October golf. Under baseball's current playoff structure, 73 of the 74 90-win teams over the past decade would have gotten to play past game 162, while most teams that win 85 or fewer games watch from home.



The win projection numbers below represent the mean win projection for each team if they stood with their current roster, essentially representing a baseline 2013 projection as we enter the winter. We'll look at where teams stand now and what they need to do to get to 90 wins.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




Oakland Athletics
2012: 94-68
Preliminary 2013 projection: 78-84



The surprise season of the A's was one of baseball's best stories this year. The heedlessly optimistic crowd may have thought that the A's would be better than advertised, but even most of those wouldn't have put Oakland at 94 wins and a division championship.



The bad news is no team has a bigger drop-off from 2012 record to 2013 projection than Oakland. The A's still have a solid bullpen and a rotation full of league-average starters, but there's nobody on the roster who can replace what Jonny Gomes did -- even Gomes himself would be unlikely to. Chris Carter and journeyman Brandon Moss combined for a 149 OPS+ in 556 plate appearances, a number that would have tied for fifth in the AL if you could morph the two together into a single player. That's probably not happening again, either.



We know a lot more about Yoenis Cespedes' abilities at the major league level than we did before the season, but his résumé is still very short, so our expectations aren't quite as solid as they would be for other 26-year-olds coming off the season he just put up.



Oakland's outlook is still significantly better than it was coming into 2012. Here's where the team ownership's unwillingness to seriously invest in the team without a new stadium really hurts the franchise the most. The A's have enough performers that they could be just as strong as the Angels or Rangers entering the season. Chris Young is a nice addition in the outfield, but unless the team gets serious about better solutions in the infield, they're going to remain a step behind in the expectations game.




2013 A's
How each key player projects for next season.

PO Player BA OBP SLG Player ERA IP BB SO
C George Kottaras .221 .326 .374 Tommy Milone 3.95 173.1 31 130
1B Chris Carter .231 .317 .439 Jarrod Parker 3.94 171.1 68 133
2B Scott Sizemore .233 .313 .361 Dan Straily 4.18 169.0 79 153
3B Josh Donaldson .234 .295 .383 A.J. Griffin 4.21 168.0 45 117
SS Adam Rosales .234 .288 .359 Bartolo Colon 4.01 130.1 28 85
LF Yoenis Cespedes .273 .337 .454 BULLPEN
CF Coco Crisp .263 .322 .400 Brett Anderson 4.00 83.1 20 57
RF Josh Reddick .243 .300 .430 Sean Doolittle 3.17 70.0 26 83
DH Seth Smith .242 .324 .411 Ryan Cook 3.42 68.1 31 66
BENCH Grant Balfour 3.14 57.1 21 57
1B-OF Brandon Moss .236 .305 .426 Jordan Norberto 3.90 55.1 30 53
OF Chris Young .225 .319 .392
IF Brandon Hicks .194 .271 .346
C Derek Norris .198 .307 .338
2B Jemile Weeks .247 .314 .342



Texas Rangers
2012: 93-69
Preliminary 2013 projection: 89-73



The Rangers crashed notably the final two weeks of the season, but even if Josh Hamilton doesn't return it's unlikely that the team actually does nothing with the free cash. The projections above assume Michael Young hangs onto the DH job, through no merit of his own, and improve if we start shuffling the lineup to get Jurickson Profar in from the start. ZiPS projects Profar at 3.0 WAR for 2013, if given a full-time job, which would make him the early favorite for Rookie of the Year.



Texas currently looks to start next season as the divisional favorite, the exact cushion dependent on who the Rangers are able to bring in over the winter. Alexi Ogando projects well -- GM Jon Daniels has already said he'll be back in the rotation -- and Yu Darvish is expected to improve in his second season in the U.S.



One thing the Rangers need to be careful about is overlooking the bullpen this winter. The potential losses of Mike Adams and Koji Uehara via free agency, coupled with Ogando's move to the rotation, are not compensated for by the (hopeful) return of Neftali Feliz late in the season. It would have been nice if the Rangers had pushed to bring in Joel Peralta, who just re-signed with the Rays. Projecting at a 3.77 ERA (118 ERA+) in Texas, he never should have been allowed to remain in Tampa Bay for only $3 million a year.



2013 Rangers
How each key player projects for next season.

PO Player BA OBP SLG Player ERA IP BB SO
C Geovany Soto .231 .313 .409 Yu Darvish 3.40 192.0 86 226
1B Mitch Moreland .264 .321 .435 Matt Harrison 4.05 191.1 57 120
2B Ian Kinsler .266 .346 .443 Derek Holland 4.54 170.2 55 141
3B Adrian Beltre .296 .334 .516 Alexi Ogando 3.72 135.1 41 117
SS Elvis Andrus .276 .346 .356 Martin Perez 5.49 137.2 64 72
LF David Murphy .275 .341 .427 BULLPEN
CF Craig Gentry .260 .321 .349 Robbie Ross 3.72 65.1 25 46
RF Nelson Cruz .264 .320 .476 Tanner Scheppers 4.71 57.1 20 45
DH Michael Young .279 .317 .401 Wilmer Font 5.43 52.0 40 57
BENCH Joe Nathan 3.62 49.2 13 54
C Luis Martinez .234 .298 .311
UT Brandon Snyder .245 .290 .385
IF Jurickson Profar .263 .331 .414
OF Leonys Martin .270 .326 .415
3B-OF Mike Olt .247 .333 .431



Los Angeles Angels
2012: 89-73
Preliminary 2013 projection: 84-78



Thanks to an incredibly slow start to the season, Albert Pujols may now be slightly underrated, as hard as that is to believe. While he didn't perform up to his previous, All-Galaxy levels, if the Angels had 25 such disappointments on the roster, they would've won 120 games.



I believe the Angels made a big mistake in not making a qualifying offer to right fielder Torii Hunter. Hunter's not projected to repeat his 5.5 WAR 2012 -- a career best -- but even with a 2.7 projected WAR that represents a large decline, a team trying to win now should jump at the chance at signing that player to a one-year, $13.3 million contract. Vernon Wells is now Plan B in the outfield, which isn't a good thing.



But what's sinking the Angels right now isn't losing Hunter, but a paper-thin rotation. While the odds of Dan Haren having some kind of injury are fairly good and it was nice to get anything in return for Ervin Santana, the Angels are down to two remotely dependable starters in Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson. Re-signing Zack Greinke is a big deal for the Angels as they wouldn't just retain the services of a pitcher that ZiPS projects at 4.1 WAR in 2013, but they would also keep Greinke out of Texas.



If the Angels aren't in the mix for most of the top pitchers in this free-agent class, it could be a long 2013.



2013 Angels
Projecting key current players for next season.

PO Player BA OBP SLG Player ERA IP BB SO
C Chris Iannetta .224 .334 .384 Jered Weaver 3.01 202.0 49 176
1B Albert Pujols .285 .359 .516 C.J. Wilson 3.49 193.1 79 169
2B Howie Kendrick .272 .314 .405 Jerome Williams 4.58 129.2 33 86
3B Alberto Callaspo .265 .330 .376 Garrett Richards 5.33 133.1 63 83
SS Erick Aybar .276 .316 .393 Brad Mills 5.56 121.1 50 77
LF Mike Trout .282 .361 .507 BULLPEN
CF Peter Bourjos .248 .302 .396 Ernesto Frieri 3.00 65.0 32 85
RF Mark Trumbo .263 .310 .479 Jordan Walden 3.67 53.0 23 57
DH Kendrys Morales .266 .316 .456 Kevin Jepsen 3.99 58.2 23 50
BENCH Scott Downs 3.60 44.0 14 33
C Hank Conger .243 .300 .358
OF Kole Calhoun .233 .295 .369
IF Andrew Romine .232 .287 .295
OF Vernon Wells .248 .290 .426



Seattle Mariners
2012: 75-87
Preliminary 2013 projection: 70-92



The future looks bright for the Mariners, as they have numerous solid pitching prospects in the minors and plenty of cash to work with as they develop their way back into contention. The problem is, they're not really there yet and the team has too many holes to believe it can really change direction and try to seriously compete in 2013.



Even with a better season in the works for Dustin Ackley, the team will still struggle to score runs. While there are scenarios in which the team could make noise in 2013, it generally involves some big signings and some good luck. The better play for Seattle is to continue developing its young pitchers. Once the team has a better idea what it will get long-term from Blake Beavan, Taijuan Walker, Danny Hultzen and James Paxton, not to mention position prospects Nick Franklin and Mike Zunino (.360/.447/.689 in his minor league debut), it will be time to strike for big names to fill the holes.



2013 Mariners
Projecting key current players for next season.

PO Player BA OBP SLG Player ERA IP BB SO
C John Jaso .256 .358 .392 Felix Hernandez 3.04 228.1 58 216
1B Justin Smoak .230 .315 .383 Jason Vargas 4.25 186.1 51 121
2B Dustin Ackley .247 .322 .373 Hisashi Iwakuma 3.86 128.1 33 101
3B Kyle Seager .264 .319 .396 Blake Beavan 4.84 182.1 36 81
SS Brendan Ryan .227 .292 .305 Erasmo Ramirez 4.61 140.2 36 86
LF Michael Saunders .231 .302 .381 BULLPEN
CF Franklin Gutierrez .243 .293 .364 Tom Wilhelmsen 3.00 74.0 29 83
RF Casper Wells .219 .300 .391 Carter Capps 4.46 74.2 29 78
DH Jesus Montero .263 .310 .407 Charlie Furbush 3.11 54.0 21 61
BENCH Stephen Pryor 4.61 54.2 39 56
IF Carlos Triunfel .243 .284 .336
1B Mike Carp .239 .304 .394
OF Eric Thames .233 .295 .374
UT Chone Figgins .231 .306 .296
UT Alex Liddi .223 .281 .366



Houston Astros
2012: 55-107
Preliminary 2013 projection: 62-100



How bad are the Houston Astros? From a statistical standpoint, the Astros were bad enough in 2012 to represent more than half the difference in league quality between the AL and the NL. The change in leagues won't be quite as jarring for Houston as one might expect as it only played the National League teams that weren't in Houston!



Why the improvement? In some respect, the Astros were phenomenally unlucky with their starting rotation in 2012. Generally speaking, the differences between players at the major league level is that even with a terrible rotation, you occasionally blunder your way into a pleasant surprise. The rotation is ugly, but the odds are in favor of at least one of Bud Norris, Jordan Lyles and Lucas Harrell breaking through and becoming a quality starter in 2013.



In other ways, the lineup has made improvements at the margins. Nobody will confuse Justin Maxwell or Fernando Martinez with All-Stars, but the expectations for them are objectively better than they ever were for Jordan Schafer or Brian Bogusevic. Matt Dominguez has more upside than Chris Johnson, and Jason Castro showed strong evidence that he's healthy enough to play baseball again.



If the Astros approached 90 wins, it would be a shocker. None of this should be placed at the feet of GM Jeff Luhnow or the team he has assembled as they're still cleaning up the gigantic mess that the previous administration saddled them with. Houston fans have reason to be optimistic about the long-term future of their organization, but for 2013, it's always cloudy in Houston.



2013 Astros
Projecting key current players for next season.

PO Player BA OBP SLG Player ERA IP BB SO
C Jason Castro .238 .316 .344 Bud Norris 4.54 168.1 69 167
1B Brett Wallace .242 .311 .387 Lucas Harrell 4.75 153.1 67 101
2B Jose Altuve .287 .330 .403 Jordan Lyles 4.95 165.1 46 116
3B Matt Dominguez .251 .296 .383 Dallas Keuchel 5.50 156.0 53 80
SS Jed Lowrie .253 .331 .430 Rudy Owens 6.23 125.2 43 74
LF J.D. Martinez .254 .313 .374 BULLPEN
CF Justin Maxwell .211 .297 .407 Fernando Rodriguez 4.46 70.2 35 78
RF Fernando Martinez .241 .297 .408 Wilton Lopez 3.82 65.0 12 53
DH Scott Moore .240 .310 .392 Xavier Cedeno 4.55 59.1 26 55
BENCH Wesley Wright 3.99 58.2 23 57
C Carlos Corporan .228 .282 .348
OF Brandon Barnes .211 .264 .345
IF Tyler Greene .229 .297 .380
OF Che-Hsuan Lin .244 .316 .303
IF Jimmy Paredes .236 .265 .338


Dan Szymborski covers baseball for ESPN Insider. He has written about the sport since 2001 for the Baseball Think Factory, where he is an editor. He is also the developer of the ZiPS projection system. You can find his ESPN archives here and follow him on Twitter here.

Rising PED use in MLB suspected.

Spoiler: Warning: Spoiler!

The Major League Baseball Players Association holds regular meetings with its executive board, and when next they meet, there will be great news to discuss -- Michael Weiner, the respected and cherished head of the union, has responded strongly in his fight against cancer.



But the conversation eventually will turn to other matters of business -- in particular, the growing concern about a perceived spike in the use of performance-enhancing drugs in MLB and whether the union should respond.



Padres catcher Yasmani Grandal became the latest player to be suspended for what seems to be the current drug of choice -- testosterone, which theoretically advances the daily recovery of athletes and enables them to bounce back and work out more than peers who aren't taking the banned substance. Melky Cabrera and Bartolo Colon were suspended for taking testosterone, and Ryan Braun tested positive for it 13 months ago. (He later became the first Major League player to win his appeal.)



The strong appeal of testosterone, players say privately, is how quickly traces of it flee the human body, often within a couple of days. A cheating player takes some testosterone on a Monday, and by Wednesday he can smile in the face of a drug tester.



There is no way to know exactly how many players are currently using PEDs without testing daily, and even then, the science of cheating might allow abusers to get away with it. But a lot of baseball executives and players are convinced that the number of those using has risen significantly in the past couple of years.

They see more and more curious physical changes, with rounded musculature and a sudden midcareer leap in performance; in pitchers, they see a leap in velocity. I've heard estimates from executives that their belief is as many as 30 to 40 percent of all players are using some kind of banned substance. (Remember, those are just guesstimates, nothing more.) Late Wednesday, one player put the number closer to 20 percent. There is also increasing speculation in the sport about the possible connection for so many busted players to the Miami area, in the way that the Bay Area was the home to BALCO, from Cabrera to Grandal.

The year-to-year sample sizes of PED suspensions are too small to draw conclusions, but the number of major leaguers suspended this year is the most in five years. And with this type of thing, the presumption among executives is that those caught are really unlucky or really stupid and represent the very tip of the iceberg.



2005
Major leagues: 12
Minor leagues: 106

2006
Major leagues: 3
Minor leagues: 39

2007
Major leagues: 8
Minor leagues: 30

2008
Major leagues: 3
Minor leagues: 69

2009
Major leagues: 4
Minor leagues: 83

2010
Major leagues: 2
Minor leagues 86

2011
Major leagues: 2
Minor leagues: 71

2012
Major leagues: 6
Minor leagues: 76 (through Aug. 22)

MLB commissioner Bud Selig said in an interview in the week after Colon's suspension that he was not inclined to reopen the collective bargaining agreement to alter the rules, but really, it's not Selig's issue. The push for change must come from the players' association, which has seen a gradual shift in the perspective of its players through the years.



Many clean players have come to view the cheaters as a direct threat to the welfare of their union brothers, in taking away jobs and dollars that rightfully belong to brethren who play according to the drug rules negotiated by the players' association. Baseball's cheaters are like fraternity brothers who steal from the community cash box.



In the past, the union's response to the drug problems has been to agree to more testing. But some players have come to believe that the testing really isn't a strong enough deterrent because of the sophistication of the drugs being used; in the cheater's roll of the dice, the odds are greatly in favor of testosterone being out of his system when the drug tester taps him on the shoulder.



So it figures that the union members will discuss altering the risk-reward equation by putting much sharper teeth into the penalties. Under the current system, a first-time offender is docked 50 games and a second offense costs a player 100 games.



In the eyes of some players, this is too light. A more appropriate deterrent, they believe, would be to have a player suspended one year with the first offense and banned for life with a second offense. And some players are open to the idea of having the contracts of cheaters immediately voided to greatly reduce the financial incentives for rule breakers.



Consider the case of Colon. Given his suspension and his stunning spike in performance in 2011 in his late 30s, it would be fair for other players to speculate that he has been cheating over the past two years. His base salary in 2011 was $900,000, and in 2012, he made approximately $1.4 million of his $2 million base salary. The other day, the Athletics re-signed Colon to a $3 million deal.



If Colon has been cheating all along, and if he avoids a suspension next year, he will have made about $5.3 million in base salary over a three-year period plus incentives -- while getting about two-and-a-half years of service time that rightfully belongs to somebody else.



How many Bartolo Colons are there? Who knows? Maybe a handful. Maybe a lot more. But it continues to be apparent that crime pays under the terms of baseball's current drug-testing system -- and the number of players choosing to go that path may be growing again.



---



• Grandal won't be eligible to come back until May 28. His biggest failures may be yet to come, writes Kevin Acee.

Grandal's statement falls under the heading of "I Got Caught And Need To Say Something (Anything, Really)."



His statement: "I apologize to the fans, my teammates, and to the San Diego Padres. I was disappointed to learn of my positive test and under the Joint Drug Program I am responsible for what I put into my body. I must accept responsibility for my actions and serve my suspension."



Notables


• Walt Weiss was hired as the Rockies' new manager.

• The general managers talked about more replay again. And they talked about head protection for pitchers.



• Colleague Jerry Crasnick reported that Arizona is open to dealing Trevor Bauer. On the face of it, this is a surprise because Bauer was the third player taken in the 2011 draft, and the Diamondbacks thought so much of him that they passed on Dylan Bundy to take the UCLA right-hander. The Diamondbacks' thinking was that Bauer would have more of an immediate impact in the big leagues than Bundy.



But this situation has been building all year. First, Bauer did not have the overpowering year that he had in college, throwing in the low-90s rather than in the mid-90s. In Bauer's brief stint in the big leagues, there was some frustration among those around him that the young pitcher seemed unwilling to adjust his style -- throwing in the upper half of the strike zone rather than down. It's possible that this trade talk is a warning shot aimed to jar Bauer into being more open-minded, but Arizona GM Kevin Towers is among the most aggressive in turning the page on what he perceives as mistakes. He won't hang on to a player just for the sake of his own ego in justifying one of his decisions.



Towers is also talking about Justin Upton; the Yankees are no longer on his no-trade list, writes Mark Feinsand. It's hard to imagine the Yankees making a deal for Upton without including some combination of Eduardo Nunez, Ivan Nova and some minor league prospects.

Joel Sherman writes that the Yankees are not looking at Upton at all, and that they are intent on posting a payroll below the luxury tax threshold.

• As soon as news broke that Jason Bay was released by the Mets -- which makes complete sense, given his struggles -- the first thought I had was that Bay could be a fit as a low-cost, low-risk flier for the Indians, who need right-handed-hitting outfield help.



Bob Elliott wonders if the Blue Jays might be interested in Bay, who is Canadian.



• The Rangers haven't ruled out a Josh Hamilton return, writes Jeff Wilson. Nolan Ryan says the Rangers aren't going to wait forever. From Richard Durrett's story:




"What you're going to have to do is I don't think you can sit around and say, 'We have to wait and see what happens with Josh,' " Ryan said to a small media gathering Wednesday at Rangers Ballpark. "We'll get a feel here shortly where we think that might be going, but also we have to be out there seeing what opportunities are out there, whether there's opportunities to improve the club.



"If you sit back and wait, you might miss an opportunity you might regret or feel like you could have done something and didn't get it done."



One of those opportunities could be Zack Greinke, the top free-agent pitcher on the market. The Rangers have four spots lined up in their rotation and are looking for another pitcher to add near the top of that staff.

If the Rangers have the dollars available on a big deal, it makes sense for them to go after Greinke, for several reasons.



1. He's the best pitcher available -- someone they've tried to acquire in the past -- and gives them the additional rotation anchor they lacked last season, because of the inconsistency and injuries of Derek Holland, Colby Lewis, etc.



2. Even if they don't get Greinke in the end, they could drive up the price for the Angels, their AL West rivals.



There have been reports that the Orioles are interested in Hamilton, but even if they've expressed a passing interest, the slugger has not been discussed at length within the organization, and Baltimore has the same concerns about risk that a lot of teams do.



Moves, deals and decisions

1. The Braves could be willing to trade pitching, and as David O'Brien writes, Atlanta would seem to be a fit as a possible trade partner for Minnesota.

2. The Nationals are open to change, says GM Mike Rizzo. Rizzo expects manager Davey Johnson to return.

3. The Phillies are looking to land a center fielder, writes Matt Gelb.

4. The Mets are not close to an R.A. Dickey deal, writes Joel Sherman.

5. The Red Sox passed on Rick Peterson and hired Juan Nieves.

6. Torii Hunter is getting a lot of attention, writes Scott Lauber.

7. The Denver Post is looking to sell its share of the Colorado Rockies.

8. A Dodgers trade for a starting pitcher is unlikely, says GM Ned Colletti.

9. The Dodgers made it official: Mark McGwire is their hitting coach. McGwire has power-walked past his PED shame, writes Mark Whicker. McGwire said it was tough to leave the Cardinals.

10. The Mariners announced some construction.

11. Jeremy Guthrie is considering his options, says Royals GM Dayton Moore.

12. The Indians may consider Kevin Youkilis.

13. Rick Hahn wants to build the White Sox's minor league system.


Dings and dents

• Missed this in the aftermath of last week's storm: Ricky Romero had an elbow cleanup.

Cashman will take hard line on Cano.

Spoiler: Warning: Spoiler!

If New York Yankees general manager Brian Cashman ran for president, he would have a draconian economic plan. Cut spending; reduce waste; balance the budget.


He has long credited the late George Steinbrenner for giving him his opportunity in Major League Baseball, but Cashman and The Boss had a very different philosophy when it came to operating a baseball team. Steinbrenner had a window-shopper's mentality and wanted the best on display: the brightest, the gaudiest. And, as the owner of baseball's richest team, he didn't really care much about the cost.



Cashman, on the other hand, has voted repeatedly against massive expenditures in his tenure as general manager. He wanted to hold the line on Bernie Williams in the fall of 1998, until Steinbrenner stepped in to make the deal and increased the Yankees' offer from $60 million to $87.5 million in the span of about 20 minutes.



Cashman spearheaded the acquisition of Alex Rodriguez in the winter of 2004, when the Rangers agreed to eat about 35 percent of his salary, but when Rodriguez opted out of his deal after the 2007 season Cashman advised his bosses to not re-sign him because he believed they could spend the $275 million more wisely.



Cashman was the bad cop in the Derek Jeter negotiations, arguing that the team shouldn't pay the future Hall of Famer way beyond his market value -- publicly inviting Jeter to test the market if he wasn't satisfied with the Yankees' offer.



Cashman has always believed that the Yankees should be able to do more with more, and that it's the responsibility of the baseball operations department to build a winning team with the sport's largest payroll. Hal Steinbrenner has stated he wants to get the Yankees' payroll in line with the luxury tax threshold of $189 million, a vision Cashman has long embraced.



This is why the Robinson Cano contract talks could have an outcome far different than anyone expects. Because the Yankees are the richest team, it stands to reason that they would work out a deal with their best player, regardless of cost.



Cano is going to finish near the top of the AL MVP voting next week, again, after hitting .313 with 33 homers. He finished second in the majors in WAR, and he is one of the best defensive second basemen in the sport. There is this, too -- Cano, like Miguel Cabrera, always plays; he's missed a total of 12 games over the last six seasons.



Cano will want to get paid for all of that next fall, when he turns 31 years old. He has hired Scott Boras to represent him, and when Boras is involved, there is no hometown discount. He'll probably ask for a contract a decade long, a deal that could threaten Rodriguez's as a benchmark in the sport.



The comparison between Rodriguez and Cano will probably be part of the Yankees' internal discussion, as well. If Cashman holds to his history as an economic conservative, his rhetorical questions to the Steinbrenners and the others in the room will be: Do we want to pay megadollars to Cano for the second half of his career as we did with Rodriguez? Do we all see what Rodriguez is at age 37 and know this is what Cano could become?



The Yankees already are feeling pinched by the contracts they still have on their books: $114 million owed to Rodriguez over the next five years; $90 million to Mark Teixeira for the next four years; $99 million to CC Sabathia for the next four seasons, a figure that might increase to $119 million if Sabathia's 2017 option vests.



It's always possible that the Steinbrenners could step in, on behalf of their brand -- their father's brand -- and make a deal happen, as they did with Rodriguez, as he did with Williams, many years ago.



But Cashman is likely to be willing to draw a surprisingly hard line, in what figure to be really tough and contentious negotiations with Cano. Boras indicated to Joel Sherman that he doesn't expect Cano to sign this winter.



Cashman is thinking small as he considers offseason moves for the Yankees, writes Mark Feinsand.



Speaking of hard lines: Mariano Rivera may be insulted by the Yankees' forthcoming offer, writes Bob Klapisch.



Around the league


• Walt Weiss is the favorite to be the Rockies manager, write Troy Renck and Patrick Saunders.



• The GM meetings start today, and over the next few days there will be discussions about instant replay, about another perceived wave of performance-enhancing drugs -- a growing concern in the sport -- and about some other issues.



But mostly, these meetings will be a forum for trade talks and discussions with the many agents who have also descended on the winter meetings site.



For some players, taking a one-year deal is probably a better idea than going for a multi-year deal, because the player is better off re-establishing his value.



Francisco Liriano, for example, is probably going to go for a one-year deal.



Other one-year deal candidates:



James Loney: He needs to go somewhere and establish that he can be a better run producer.



Stephen Drew: He'd probably like to get paid, in a multi-year deal, as an every-day shortstop in the middle of his career. But there are a lot of questions among executives about what kind of a player he really is. With a good season on a one-year deal, he could hit the market next fall at age 30.



Melky Cabrera: Right now, he could get a decent multi-year deal. But if he had a strong season in 2013 without testing positive, again, he would be one of the most coveted free agents next fall.



• Ben Cherington's work will begin in earnest at the GM meetings, writes Brian MacPherson.



Jacoby Ellsbury is a trade chip for the Red Sox, writes Michael Silverman. He'd be a great fit for the Rangers if Texas decides to turn the page on Josh Hamilton -- but the Rangers would have to be comfortable with the situation, knowing that Ellsbury will become a free agent next fall, as a Scott Boras client.



• I wrote here yesterday that some executives are speculating that the Cubs-Angels deal blew up after Chicago officials reviewed the medical records of Haren's back and didn't like what they saw. Haren's agent, Greg Landry, said on Tuesday, "Dan is healthy."



For what it's worth: Haren made 13 starts after serving some time on the disabled list in midseason, and in those games, he had a 3.58 ERA. His fastball velocity was down slightly in the second half of the year, and in those 13 post-DL starts, he registered an out in the seventh inning in three of them.

• You'd have to figure that the Giants will work on a whopper long-term deal with Buster Posey sometime this winter. Posey has demonstrated he is all the way back from his shattered ankle, having generated an MVP-type season in 2012, and he also has the athleticism to make a position switch whenever the Giants determine that is in their best interest.



• The Tigers' next long-term answer at closer could come from within a prospect with a 103 mph fastball, as Lynn Henning writes.



From the story:

[Bruce] Rondon is 6-foot-3 and listed these days at 265 pounds. The figure is probably low, although, again, the Tigers aren't worried. "Nobody's gonna tell you he's a little skinny guy," Avila said. "He's always been big. But you can be a big guy if you're in shape. And he's a guy who does all the arm exercises to protect his shoulder and his back, which keeps his legs and arm straight.



"If you put him on a vegetarian diet, you probably wouldn't see a big difference. He's just big. You want to make sure he doesn't gain weight. But his work ethic is there."



Rondon is still young, and developing. The numbers that have jumped out at me are his walks 34 in 40 innings in 2011, then 26 in 53 innings in 2012. But as Lynn writes, he's a converted catcher and is still clearly learning his craft.




Moves, deals and decisions


1. Yu Darvish won't be part of the World Baseball Classic, writes Evan Grant.



2. Miami signed an infielder, as Joe Capozzi writes.



3. Alex Anthopoulos will put off his managerial search for a few days -- although knowing Anthopoulos, he'll always be gathering information.



4. Agree with what Dan Connolly wrote within this piece: It's great to see Dave Trembley back in the big leagues, as part of Bo Porter's staff.



5. The Mets need Moneyball magic, writes John Harper.



6. The Phillies might be zeroing in on a center fielder, writes David Murphy.



7. The Pirates are not making changes at the highest levels of their management, says owner Bob Nutting. He is choosing failure, writes Dejan Kovacevic.



8. The Indians' needs are crystal clear, writes Paul Hoynes.


9. The Cubs are going after Shaun Marcum and Brandon McCarthy, writes Gordon Wittenmyer.

10. Some upgrades for the Twins' spring facility were approved.


11. Kevin Towers is prepared for trade talks.

Arizona owner Ken Kendrick did a Q & A with Steve Gilbert and again addressed the question of what will happen with Justin Upton.



From the piece:



MLB.com: You and Towers also said at the end of the season that it's highly unlikely now that Upton would be traded.



Kendrick: Yes, but I've also said -- and I think Kevin has said it better than I -- that no player is an untouchable and that we would always be responsive to legitimate offers. But I think the odds highly favor Justin being our right fielder at the start of next season.



In other words: If teams bring proposals for Upton to them and that will happen the Diamondbacks will listen.



12. Letting Torii Hunter go is the right thing for the Angels to do, if they spend their money on others, writes Jeff Miller.



13. The Mariners claimed an outfielder on waivers.



Dings and dents


1. It's the Mets; it's a crazy injury.

Jeremy Bonderman plans a return.

Spoiler: Warning: Spoiler!

Jeremy Bonderman thought that watching the Tigers play in the World Series might fuel his desire to get back to the big leagues, and he did go to see Justin Verlander and other friends when the playoffs took Detroit through Oakland.



But the push for his comeback goes deeper than that, and began long before baseball's postseason began.



Bonderman, who just turned 30, started his workouts long before he had Tommy John surgery in April 2012. He explained over the phone Sunday that most weeks, he's training six days out of seven, and he has cut his weight from 245 to about 210 pounds, or what he weighed as he came out of high school.



"I just want to go out and play," he said. "I just want to go out and compete, and go out on my terms."



The right-hander has 193 starts in the majors and made tens of millions of dollars in the past. "It's not about the money," he said. "I want my son to be in the clubhouse. It's about proving something to myself and my kids."

“
It feels a heck of a lot better than it did when I left the game. The ball just comes out with that late life at the end.

”
-- Jeremy Bonderman
Bonderman bumped into Tigers officials while visiting with Verlander, and he left an immediate impression, apparently; there was some discussion about a possible reunion. Bonderman isn't looking for much. "Just a minor league deal, with a major league [spring training] invite," he said.



Bonderman's last big-league appearance was Oct. 1, 2010, and after that, he returned to Oregon, unsure of what he wanted to do. Throwing a baseball was not a comfortable act for him. He started eating better, eating smaller meals throughout the course of a day rather than a large meal at the end of the day, and he starting training, mixing up his daily routine with a personal trainer -- doing weight work and cardiovascular work, and some yoga. He decided to have the reconstructive elbow surgery that he needed last spring, and has been throwing for about 3½ months. "It feels a heck of a lot better than it did when I left the game," said Bonderman, who has been throwing to his brother, John. "The ball just comes out with that late life at the end.



"You lose that much weight, it's amazing how much better your body feels," he said. "I can feel it through everything, it's a lot easier to move, and a lot easier [to throw]."



Bonderman says he'll be ready to throw for teams at the outset of January, but as he spoke, it was clear that he feels like he's open to anything, and itching to get back on the mound. "I think I could be ready before then," he said. "We'll see what happens."



Notables


• Before Atlanta picked up the 2013 option on Brian McCann, some teams checked in on his availability in a sign-and-trade scenario. But trading McCann would have been problematic: Other teams would have been looking to get him on the cheap, without surrendering major prospects, and given his stature within the organization, the Braves would have wanted decent return. McCann would have been an excellent DH-catcher option for an AL team, but nobody would have given up significant return to get him, considering the shoulder surgery he just had.



As it stands, there is a belief that McCann will be back at full speed sometime in the first quarter of the season. Braves GM Frank Wren will be looking for alternatives at the meetings this week.

Some folks within the Atlanta organization are realistic about their chances of re-signing Michael Bourn: Because of the price tag and the presence of other bidders, it's probably not going to happen.



• Sources say that before the talks between the Red Sox and Cody Ross stalled, the outfielder's side was looking for a deal of about three years and $25 million. As the market plays out, it'll be interesting to see if there is increased action on Ross and Shane Victorino as the more modest options in the free-agent market, for teams that might prefer the Honda to the Mercedes.



• Dan Haren's reps will have to convince teams that the pitcher's back is healthy enough for him to compete, because that is the issue a lot of executives are assuming blew up the Haren-Carlos Marmol trade between the Angels and Cubs last week.



• The Yankees claimed catcher Eli Whiteside on waivers. In their list of priorities, re-signing Russell Martin is not as high as addressing their pitching issues, so the Yankees continue to prepare for the possibility they might not have Martin next year. They like Martin -- a lot -- but will not overpay (in their eyes) to retain him.



Moves, deals and decisions

1. The Brewers signed a pitcher.

2. The new rules could speed up the Cubs' offseason plans, writes Gordon Wittenmyer.

3. Adam Wainwright intends to stay with the Cardinals, as Derrick Goold writes.

4. The talks between Davey Johnson and the Nationals are at a stalemate, for now.

5. A Washington special adviser was hired by the Dodgers.

6. The Rays re-signed Joel Peralta.

7. The Red Sox are not keeping their chief therapist.

8. David Ortiz got the deal he wanted.

9. Pablo Sandoval wants to play in the WBC.

AL Central: Road to 90 wins.

Spoiler: Warning: Spoiler!

Detroit Tigers
2012: 88-74
2013 projection: 87-75

The 2012 season was a successful one for the Tigers, up until the offense disappeared in the World Series. Those 88 wins were enough to win the AL Central, but would have sent the Tigers home if they played in the AL East or AL West. Owner Mike Ilitch has made it clear that he wants his team to win the World Series before he shuffles off this mortal coil and he will open his wallet to do it. Jose Valverde and Anibal Sanchez are free agents, but the Tigers will not bring back Valverde after several too many meltdowns this year and Sanchez is not a priority as the team's pitching depth has improved.



With the addition of Doug Fister in 2011 and Drew Smyly's emergence, Detroit's rotation is less of a concern going forward than it has been in decades, assuming we don't get a nasty surprise concerning Max Scherzer's shoulder over the offseason. While it would be nice to have more depth ahead of Adam Wilk and Casey Crosby in the rotation, the team has bigger fish to fry.



As it stands, the Tiger outfield is the most need of repair this offseason and the place the Tigers have the best shot at adding wins from their current roster. Delmon Young's departure only really hurts from a depth standpoint, but the team needs to seriously look at an upgrade from Brennan Boesch. ZiPS projects Boesch's OPS to improve from .659 in 2012 to .713 in 2013, but that's still inadequate for a corner outfielder with defensive issues. With Andy Dirks's minor league translations and 2011 major league performance suggesting a lower level of play than his 2012 performance, some regression from Dirks really leaves the outfield in need of at least one big bat. Quintin Berry's unlikely to be an answer here. His .299/.388/.417 line before the All-Star break was a big boost to the Tigers when they really needed one, but his .218/.270/.293 line afterward is much closer to what one would expect from a player with his minor league record. High strikeout players with no power are poor long-term bets.



The Tigers also have to be realistic when it comes to Victor Martinez's return. He turns 34 next month and has missed an entire season, so they can't simply pencil in his 2011 numbers and call it a day when it comes to fixing the lineup.



Detroit is well-placed for a return to the playoffs, but as the 2012 White Sox demonstrated, Detroit's not invincible and can't take winning the division as an assumption. Expect the Tigers to be in the mix for the big-name outfielders in the offseason, such as Nick Swisher or even Josh Hamilton.



2013 Tigers
How each key current player projects for next season.

PO Player BA OBP SLG Player ERA IP BB SO
C Alex Avila .248 .349 .407 Justin Verlander 3.09 221.1 58 219
1B Prince Fielder .284 .397 .499 Max Scherzer 3.95 186.2 58 196
2B Omar Infante .278 .308 .387 Rick Porcello 4.73 178.0 45 107
3B Miguel Cabrera .313 .394 .561 Doug Fister 3.95 170.0 34 117
SS Jhonny Peralta .258 .315 .395 Drew Smyly 4.20 167.1 58 147
LF Andy Dirks .276 .319 .418 BULLPEN
CF Austin Jackson .263 .341 .418 Brayan Villarreal 3.53 66.1 37 80
RF Brennan Boesch .256 .305 .408 Phil Coke 4.25 59.1 22 51
DH Victor Martinez .286 .339 .431 Joaquin Benoit 3.72 57.0 17 66
BENCH Al Alburquerque 3.89 34.2 19 41
OF Avisail Garcia .248 .276 .356
OF Quintin Berry .235 .306 .316
IF Ramon Santiago .247 .310 .341
C Bryan Holaday .226 .278 .318



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




Chicago White Sox
2012: 85-77
2013 projection: 81-81



The White Sox made it interesting for the Tigers until September, but the lack of offensive depth is a red flag in 2013. Chicago's starting lineup had a solid health record in 2012, with them getting 130 games played from one player at every position other than third base. That's the kind of attendance record that you really cannot count on every year and the Sox were very fortunate not to have to scramble to find short-term replacements. Chicago had eight bench players get 50 plate appearances or more and only one of them surpassed a .250 batting average (Dewayne Wise), and none managed an OBP above .300.



Most of Chicago's lineup is set, so any additional wins on offense will need to come from third base or catcher. It's going to be hard to add wins behind the plate as this year's team received the benefit of A.J. Pierzynski's career season at age 35. Even if Pierzynski eventually returns to Chicago, some falloff is inevitable, with his 2013 ZiPS projection of .274/.311/.432 being a bit of a decline. Tyler Flowers has improved on defense, but is not looking like he's going to be an impact offensive player and represents a dropoff of about a win from Pierzynski's projection. The Sox could turn to strong-armed Josh Phegley but his numbers in Triple-A were weak for a prospect and his .241/.280/.357 projection suggests he is probably not ready for a major league starting job. Mike Napoli, project at .245/.354/.505 in 2013 in Chicago, is the best option here, if the team is willing to do so.



Complicating the situation is the team's decision to turn down Kevin Youkilis' $13 million option. That sounds like a lot of money for a declining Youkilis, but you can always justify spending more when it's a one-year contract, and the Sox don't have any adequate option there. The free agent market at third is very thin and the Sox don't have enough on the farm to entice the Padres into trading Chase Headley.



Outside of catcher and third base, the White Sox only really have the potential to improve on the margins. The rotation is essentially set for 2013, so a big move is unlikely there and while the team's likely to add some bullpen depth, the back of the bullpen isn't exactly a great place to add on wins.



The White Sox have an aging team and a weak farm system and are in that situation at which they are in "win-now" mode without enough wins. Without some aggressive movement, the White Sox will need a lot more to go wrong in Detroit, as there's a ceiling of just how much can go right in Chicago.



2013 White Sox
How each key current player projects for next season.

PO Player BA OBP SLG Player ERA IP BB SO
C Tyler Flowers .211 .315 .396 Chris Sale 3.43 175.2 52 174
1B Paul Konerko .284 .360 .485 Gavin Floyd 4.27 172.2 54 141
2B Gordon Beckham .250 .312 .387 Jose Quintana 4.67 169.2 65 110
3B Brent Morel .246 .286 .360 Jake Peavy 4.01 159.1 38 136
SS Alexei Ramirez .269 .306 .389 John Danks 4.50 125.0 41 93
LF Dayan Viciedo .264 .314 .434 BULLPEN
CF Alejandro De Aza .272 .333 .406 Philip Humber 5.50 122.2 41 87
RF Alex Rios .271 .307 .434 Hector Santiago 4.43 81.1 50 88
DH Adam Dunn .206 .333 .436 Addison Reed 3.92 66.2 21 70
BENCH Matt Thornton 3.58 55.1 18 55
C Hector Gimenez .230 .280 .394 Jesse Crain 3.67 53.0 25 62
1B Dan Johnson .234 .338 .416
IF Drew Garcia .229 .278 .325
OF Jordan Danks .232 .309 .363



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




Kansas City Royals
2012: 72-90
2013 projection: 71-91



Nobody expected Kansas City's rotation to be very good in 2012 -- and it wasn't -- but the club had hoped that some of the young players on offense would improve the offense. Instead, Eric Hosmer had a nightmare of a sophomore season, injuries left Jarrod Dyson playing a lot more than Lorenzo Cain, and Jeff Francoeur failed to achieve even that mediocre level of excellence that has characterized his better seasons.



Improvement in the lineup is on the horizon. Hosmer is still very young and ZiPS projects a significant bounce-back season. Mike Moustakas should continue to improve and one has to figure that GM Dayton Moore will finally start playing the team's best right fielder, top prospect Wil Myers, at some point over Francoeur, who was the least valuable outfielder in baseball by Baseball Reference's WAR. A longer stint for Johnny Giavotella at second would be a significant step forward for the organization. It's not looking like Giavotella has any star potential, but the Royals really need to test if he can be an adequate solution for the next few years rather than simply leaving known quantity Chris Getz out there

.


What's going to determine how far this team can go in the near future is what kind of starting rotation it can cobble together. As of right now, the answer is "not much." Danny Duffy and Felipe Paulino are not available immediately thanks to Tommy John surgeries and the rotation as it stands consists of a lot of guys who pitch to really hard contact. The recently acquired Ervin Santana represents most of the upside, but going to a worse defense after an awful year, ZiPS doesn't see much of a mean expectation from him -- though he does retain some upside, which is more than you can say about the rest of the rotation. Without significant pitching additions, the Royals will need help to finish second in the division and would still need a lot of worst-case scenarios from Detroit to be truly relevant in the playoff picture.



2013 Royals
How each key current player projects for next season.

PO Player BA OBP SLG Player ERA IP BB SO
C Salvador Perez .294 .323 .436 Ervin Santana 5.05 178.1 62 132
1B Eric Hosmer .273 .336 .435 Chris Volstad 6.04 165.1 55 89
2B Chris Getz .259 .310 .316 Luke Hochevar 5.06 156.2 51 113
3B Mike Moustakas .261 .310 .430 Bruce Chen 5.03 141.1 43 98
SS Alcides Escobar .271 .312 .366 Luis Mendoza 5.02 134.1 50 70
LF Alex Gordon .269 .352 .434 BULLPEN
CF Lorenzo Cain .259 .311 .383 Kelvin Herrera 3.72 77.1 21 70
RF Wil Myers .266 .330 .450 Greg Holland 3.21 72.0 32 92
DH Billy Butler .295 .362 .476 Tim Collins 3.76 69.1 38 89
BENCH Aaron Crow 3.80 63.0 25 66
C Brett Hayes .229 .268 .352
UT Irving Falu .261 .300 .333
IF Johnny Giavotella .266 .316 .368
OF Jeff Francoeur .261 .305 .413
OF Jarrod Dyson .244 .301 .312



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




Cleveland Indians
2012: 68-94
2013 projection: 70-92



Cleveland was actually .500 as late as the end of July, but a 5-24 August doomed the Indians to fighting with the Twins for fourth place in the NL Central. The Indians declined the options on Travis Hafner and Roberto Hernandez, and also said goodbye to Casey Kotchman, who was a disaster at first, and Grady Sizemore, who never made it onto the field in 2012.



For an offense that finished 13th in the league in scoring, it's not really in that bad shape. The Indians are solid at the hardest-to-get positions, catcher, middle infield, at center field, and still retain Shin-Soo Choo in right. It's the lack of oomph at the key offensive positions that doomed the offense and right now, they don't have a lot of good, internal options. Cleveland needs 1B/LF/DH help and not making serious upgrades ends up wasting what they're getting up-the-middle. They couldn't accept Hafner's option year at the price ($13M), but the chance to bring him back at a reduced salary for 2013 is one definitely worth exploring. ZiPS still projects Pronk to hit .250/.342/.421 in 2013, and given that DH is not the only hole the Indians have, they should try to work out something quickly.



What will keep the Indians from having a decent shot at 90 wins in 2013 comes down to a real mess of a rotation. Justin Masterson regressed heavily from 2011, and Ubaldo Jimenez was even worse, either missing velocity or missing the plate (and usually both). ZiPS projects both to get at least a dead cat bounce, but the bottom of the rotation doesn't look much better than 2012.



Cleveland's a team that can benefit from an inning-eater, someone that may get overlooked in the free agent market. One example would be Jeremy Guthrie, who projects to a 4.44 ERA in Cleveland, and shouldn't get a lot of attention after getting killed at Coors Field, a park particularly poorly suited for Guthrie. The Indians will have a hard time getting to 90 wins with the current staff and like the Orioles' path to the playoffs in 2012, they really need to get lucky with some non-terrible innings from their starters. It helps to be in a weak division.



2013 Indians
How each key current player projects for next season.

PO Player BA OBP SLG Player ERA IP BB SO
C Carlos Santana .248 .362 .435 Ubaldo Jimenez 4.37 181.1 85 163
1B Matt LaPorta .240 .303 .389 Zach McAllister 5.17 156.2 51 109
2B Jason Kipnis .256 .326 .400 Justin Masterson 4.33 193.1 71 147
3B Jack Hannahan .228 .301 .341 Jeanmar Gomez 5.45 153.2 57 86
SS Asdrubal Cabrera .271 .331 .422 Carlos Carrasco 5.32 108.1 44 71
LF Ezequiel Carrera .265 .316 .345 BULLPEN
CF Michael Brantley .275 .333 .382 Vinnie Pestano 3.25 63.2 23 73
RF Shin-Soo Choo .267 .359 .427 Joe Smith 3.94 61.2 26 48
DH Lonnie Chisenhall .255 .305 .398 Chris Perez 3.81 58.0 22 56
BENCH Tony Sipp 4.47 56.1 26 57
C Lou Marson .225 .316 .308
1B Jason Donald .237 .300 .337
IF Mike Aviles .258 .288 .382
UT Brent Lillibridge .223 .280 .343



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




Minnesota Twins
2012: 66-96
2013 projection: 66-96



The sad thing about Minnesota's 2012 was that the 66-96 record actually represented a three-game improvement over 2011's 63-99 debacle. Joe Mauer had a solid comeback season, and while Twins fans may not be crazy about his contract, it was Mauer and Josh Willingham that kept the Twins looking merely terrible instead of downright Houston Astros-y this year.



Where do you start fixing the Twins? At this point, while the team doesn't want to come right out and write off 2013, realistically the Twins are at the start of a rebuilding process and with this roster, any limited success will be short-lived. That means the team needs to get serious about any value they can get in return for Willingham, Justin Morneau and Denard Span. The Twins are several pitchers and a few position players away from contention in 2013. Unless the Twins find the world's biggest oil reserves under the stadium, it's not going to happen.



2013 Twins
How each key current player projects for next season.

PO Player BA OBP SLG Player ERA IP BB SO
C Joe Mauer .299 .386 .426 Scott Diamond 4.85 170.2 44 95
1B Justin Morneau .265 .334 .435 Liam Hendriks 5.18 159.0 53 92
2B Jamey Carroll .261 .331 .318 Cole De Vries 5.40 139.0 32 79
3B Trevor Plouffe .241 .300 .422 Nick Blackburn 6.11 126.2 40 57
SS Brian Dozier .247 .296 .348 Brian Duensing 4.68 117.1 34 78
LF Josh Willingham .247 .350 .469 BULLPEN
CF Denard Span .271 .332 .368 Sam Deduno 5.20 91.2 62 69
RF Ben Revere .283 .325 .332 Alex Burnett 4.57 66.0 26 40
DH Ryan Doumit .256 .311 .411 Glen Perkins 3.62 64.2 20 63
BENCH Casey Fien 5.27 56.1 21 41
C Drew Butera .225 .270 .325 Jared Burton 4.07 41.0 15 35
1B Chris Parmelee .249 .322 .390
IF Eduardo Escobar .246 .283 .327
IF Pedro Florimon .237 .291 .331
UT Darin Mastroianni .238 .305 .314


Dan Szymborski covers baseball for ESPN Insider. He has written about the sport since 2001 for the Baseball Think Factory, where he is an editor. He is also the developer of the ZiPS projection system. You can find his ESPN archives here and follow him on Twitter here.

NL Central: Road to 90 wins.

Spoiler: Warning: Spoiler!

Cincinnati Reds
2012: 97-65
2013 projection: 84-78




The Reds won the NL Central by a tidy 9 games, but there really isn't quite as much daylight between the current rosters of the Reds and Cardinals as the win total leads one to believe. By runs scored and runs allowed, the Cardinals actually go from -9 to +2 against the Reds, though they would give some of that back by virtue of Cincinnati's superior bullpen. Still, the Reds can't count on winning the NL Central so easily again, even though ZiPS does believe that they have the most talented roster under contract.



ZiPS sees Johnny Cueto and Mat Latos remaining a terrific one-two combo, but sees a little bit of decline from Homer Bailey and a larger regression risk for Bronson Arroyo, who has been quite up-and-down in recent years, occasionally going through long stretches where he gets up in the zone and starts pitching home run derby. The rotation is likely set and the bullpen mostly in place, so I don't expect major upgrades here. All told, looking at the players currently on the roster, ZiPS has the Reds with the fifth-most pitching WAR projected for 2013.



Where the Reds need to kick the tires is in center field. Drew Stubbs can be maddening out there for stretches and even with the projected bounce to .230/.301/.370 (BA/OBP/SLG), the Reds need to try to do better there. B.J. Upton projects as a 30-homer hitter and a better fit for the park than Michael Bourn, but with Running Billy Hamilton converted to center field, the team may not want a long-term commitment out there. Hamilton could probably hold his own offensively very soon -- ZiPS projects a .266/.330/.344 line with a ton of stolen bases -- but it would be a very aggressive promotion when you consider the Reds are converting him to a position he hasn't played professionally.



In the short term, the best solution may be Chris Heisey in center and a stopgap in left field and the Reds are still talking with Ryan Ludwick about bringing him back in 2013. He's not listed in the chart, but Ludwick's projection of .253/.321/.451, while nowhere near his 2012 numbers, fueled by his insane rampage on pitchers while Votto was out, fits the bill. Todd Frazier isn't a great fit defensively at third and probably better suited to left, but the market is much weaker for third basemen.



The Reds enter the offseason as the slight 2013 favorite in the division.



2013 Reds
How each key current player projects for next season.

PO Player BA OBP SLG Player ERA IP BB SO
C Ryan Hanigan .269 .357 .350 Mat Latos 3.47 197.1 57 186
1B Joey Votto .300 .420 .542 Johnny Cueto 3.32 192.1 51 145
2B Brandon Phillips .279 .326 .426 Homer Bailey 4.00 173.1 45 138
3B Todd Frazier .247 .310 .444 Mike Leake 4.59 166.2 41 114
SS Zack Cozart .252 .298 .403 Bronson Arroyo 4.59 164.2 37 99
LF Chris Heisey .260 .313 .441 BULLPEN
CF Drew Stubbs .230 .301 .370 Aroldis Chapman 2.51 67.0 32 106
RF Jay Bruce .258 .337 .498 Sean Marshall 2.71 66.1 18 76
BENCH Jose Arredondo 4.09 61.2 33 61
OF Xavier Paul .261 .311 .404 Nick Masset 3.80 42.2 18 43
OF Kris Negron .217 .275 .339
IF Wilson Valdez .242 .281 .306
C Devin Mesoraco .245 .316 .429
IF Chris Valaika .240 .274 .351
1B Neftali Soto .237 .286 .420



St. Louis Cardinals
2012: 88-74
2013 projection: 83-79



St. Louis was a game away from its fourth World Series appearance in a decade, until the Cardinals ran into Barry Zito, Ryan Vogelsong and Matt Cain, and scored just a single run in the last three games of the National League Championship Series.



The biggest challenge the Cardinals face is that while they were an excellent team this year, they also don't have a lot of logical places to easily upgrade. The rotation and the lineup are very nearly set without a lot of wiggle room, so there are no gigantic upgrades on the horizon with current personnel. The problem with that is, especially on the offense, most of the players on the team are either in their declining years or they likely played at the top end of their ability in 2012. Adam Wainwright has the potential to improve on 2012 and Daniel Descalso is likely to better his .627 OPS in 2013. As a group, the 2012 Cardinals are likely to play worse in 2013.



What it will come down to is how aggressive the team is willing to be at making trades this offseason. The Cards don't have rotation spots for all of Shelby Miller, Lance Lynn, Trevor Rosenthal and Joe Kelly, and the Cards may need to finally make some decisions on where the future lies if they want ammo to upgrade their team for 2013. Sure, the team could use extra arms in the bullpen, but that's a bit of a waste for a decent young starting pitcher.



Jaime Garcia's projection assumes that he has a clean recovery from his rotator cuff pain. If he needs surgery, that inning projection could easily be zero.



St. Louis enters the offseason as a slight underdog to the Reds in the division, but without as much of an upside in 2013

.


2013 Cardinals
How each key current player projects for next season.

PO Player BA OBP SLG Player ERA IP BB SO
C Yadier Molina .289 .348 .426 Adam Wainwright 3.42 173.2 46 157
1B Allen Craig .283 .333 .478 Jaime Garcia 3.81 160.2 45 130
2B Daniel Descalso .254 .322 .361 Jake Westbrook 4.44 151.0 52 91
3B David Freese .272 .340 .424 Lance Lynn 4.15 149.2 56 135
SS Rafael Furcal .262 .325 .374 Shelby Miller 4.14 132.2 71 128
LF Matt Holliday .281 .365 .473 BULLPEN
CF Jon Jay .282 .342 .397 Chris Carpenter 3.73 91.2 21 73
RF Carlos Beltran .265 .345 .464 Mitchell Boggs 3.47 69.0 23 57
BENCH Edward Mujica 3.49 66.0 12 55
C Tony Cruz .240 .283 .353 Jason Motte 2.97 60.2 17 67
UT Skip Schumaker .263 .320 .335 Marc Rzepczynski 4.12 54.2 23 48
IF Pete Kozma .226 .281 .328
1B-OF Matt Carpenter .257 .346 .388
OF Shane Robinson .249 .305 .353
1B Matt Adams .265 .307 .433



Milwaukee Brewers
2012: 83-79
2013 projection: 79-83



The Brewers demonstrated that there's life after a superstar, with the additions of Norichika Aoki and Aramis Ramirez compensating nicely for the offense that Prince Fielder took with him on I-94. Losing Zack Greinke to the Angels hurt, but Jean Segura gives the Brewers a real chance at shortstop being a plus for a change of pace.



The offense mostly returns in 2013, even though the odds are in favor of Jonathan Lucroy's .320/.368/.513 season being his career year. Whether the Brewers are fighting with the Reds and Cardinals or instead with the Pirates will come down to what pitching improvements they can make in the offseason. There's likely too much competition out there to make bringing Greinke back realistic, but even a good low-key signing, like Joe Saunders, would be a big help to the back of the rotation.



Milwaukee will need to kick the tires on a lot of relievers this offseason. ZiPS projects a modest comeback for John Axford, but the Brewers are still short of quality bullpen arms. They really need to go after guys like Mike Adams -- whom they would probably appreciate more this time around -- and Koji Uehara and explore second-tier relievers like Jon Rauch if the team's going to cobble together a deep enough bullpen to compete.



2013 Brewers
How each key current player projects for next season.

PO Player BA OBP SLG Player ERA IP BB SO
C Jonathan Lucroy .274 .328 .421 Yovani Gallardo 3.80 193.0 70 199
1B Corey Hart .265 .329 .485 Michael Fiers 3.90 133.0 48 124
2B Rickie Weeks .252 .344 .443 Marco Estrada 4.09 120.0 34 114
3B Aramis Ramirez .280 .338 .494 Mark Rogers 4.89 106.2 57 100
SS Jean Segura .278 .325 .402 Chris Narveson 4.86 86.0 33 72
LF Ryan Braun .302 .371 .540 BULLPEN
CF Carlos Gomez .249 .300 .418 John Axford 3.53 66.1 32 83
RF Norichika Aoki .288 .342 .395 Jim Henderson 4.96 61.2 38 64
BENCH Manny Parra 4.47 58.1 33 57
C Martin Maldonado .236 .298 .359 Brandon Kintzler 5.05 46.1 18 35
UT Taylor Green .251 .312 .396
1B Mat Gamel .261 .332 .440
OF Logan Schafer .261 .312 .385
OF Caleb Gindl .254 .315 .403
UT Jeff Bianchi .248 .290 .343



Pittsburgh Pirates
2012: 79-83
2013 projection: 75-87



In a perverse sense, Pittsburgh's summer flirtation with contention might have actually hurt the standing of the team in the eyes of many. The Pirates last had a better record than 79-83 in 1992, but after they had a solid shot at a playoff spot until a late-season slump, they've given off a bit of an aura of disappointment.



To really be a competitor in their own right, it's time for the Pirates to open up the checkbook, not just to keep Andrew McCutchen (which they have), but to add to a better supporting cast, especially with elite pitching prospects Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon on the horizon. Of Pittsburgh's 15 WAR in the lineup in 2012, almost half of that was from McCutchen. The team has no ugly contracts clogging up payroll, plenty of new cash thanks to TV deals, so why not at least try to make a play at Josh Hamilton? Or even a lesser free agent, such as Mike Napoli?



2013 Brewers
How each key current player projects for next season.

PO Player BA OBP SLG Player ERA IP BB SO
C Michael McKenry .227 .297 .365 Wandy Rodriguez 3.59 180.1 53 136
1B Garrett Jones .253 .309 .446 A.J. Burnett 4.07 172.1 62 140
2B Neil Walker .270 .328 .430 James McDonald 4.12 150.2 63 130
3B Pedro Alvarez .236 .313 .451 Gerrit Cole 4.12 133.1 54 110
SS Clint Barmes .237 .289 .353 Jeff Karstens 4.17 120.0 25 79
LF Starling Marte .264 .310 .428 BULLPEN
CF Andrew McCutchen .283 .369 .480 Bryan Morris 4.80 80.2 26 57
RF Jose Tabata .265 .330 .369 Jared Hughes 3.81 75.2 24 50
BENCH Joel Hanrahan 3.13 60.1 26 68
1B Gaby Sanchez .254 .324 .405 Tony Watson 3.64 59.1 26 57
1B-OF Travis Snider .253 .310 .403
IF Brock Holt .263 .314 .351
UT Josh Harrison .261 .299 .370
OF Alex Presley .263 .311 .420



Chicago Cubs
2012: 61-101
2013 projection: 69-93



Chicago has Theo Epstein, but for a run at 90 wins, 2013 is a tough sell. The Cubs aren't quite as hopeless as 101 losses looks, but they don't have the arms after Matt Garza and Jeff Samardzija to put together a playoff-bound rotation. (I'm projecting Arodys Vizcaino as a reliever here.) The team has money to spend when the time comes, but the story of the 2013 Cubs will involve more bargain hunting and prospect developing than actual wins.



2013 Cubs
How each key current player projects for next season.

PO Player BA OBP SLG Player ERA IP BB SO
C Welington Castillo .240 .309 .398 Matt Garza 3.68 151.2 48 140
1B Anthony Rizzo .279 .349 .503 Jeff Samardzija 3.62 168.0 54 172
2B Darwin Barney .270 .308 .360 Travis Wood 4.53 170.0 59 135
3B Ian Stewart .210 .296 .376 Casey Coleman 5.22 111.0 51 76
SS Starlin Castro .294 .332 .446 Chris Rusin 5.59 131.0 52 78
LF Alfonso Soriano .249 .300 .470 BULLPEN
CF Brett Jackson .230 .317 .403 Carlos Marmol 3.36 64.1 46 91
RF David DeJesus .262 .341 .399 Michael Bowden 4.26 69.2 36 63
BENCH James Russell 3.97 65.2 20 51
1B-OF Bryan LaHair .255 .322 .462 Arodys Vizcaino 4.23 44.2 19 39
OF Tony Campana .262 .306 .314
OF Dave Sappelt .267 .316 .381
IF Luis Valbuena .247 .319 .378
C Steve Clevenger .261 .309 .361


Dan Szymborski covers baseball for ESPN Insider. He has written about the sport since 2001 for the Baseball Think Factory, where he is an editor. He is also the developer of the ZiPS projection system. You can find his ESPN archives here and follow him on Twitter here.

Buyer's guide: Relief pitchers.

Spoiler: Warning: Spoiler!

In this edition of my buyer's guides, I'm dispensing with the section on bad deals because any deal of three or more years given to any reliever is a bad one by definition. When you see what the Rays have done with guys such as Kyle Farnsworth and Fernando Rodney, you wonder why teams still give out three-year deals worth $21 million guaranteed to the Brandon Leagues of the world. (Not that any current GM would ever do such a foolish thing.)



So if some team wants to give Rafael Soriano four years, it doesn't matter how much we all like Soriano in the short term -- that's all but certain to be a disaster for the signing team. Reliever performance is far too volatile from year to year, because of injuries, small sample-size variations and the added wear and tear of today's reliever usage patterns. Caveat GMptor.



Best values


These are players who might be undervalued, or at least not wildly overvalued, by the market this offseason. They're not the top-ranked players at their positions, which is based strictly on their future potential but not on what they might be paid and how many years they might receive.

• Jeremy Affeldt, LHP: Affeldt's stuff has always pointed to better results than he has delivered, with 2012 the one year in his time with San Francisco where he really performed, a stat line boosted by the fact that he gave up only one homer all year. He has made two significant adjustments since becoming a Giant -- he's throwing mostly two-seamers now, and he's using his hard changeup more often to make the fastball more effective. He also has gradually brought down his walk rate every year, although he has never quite matched the plus control he showed in his last walk year, 2008. He was much more effective against right-handed batters in 2012, and if that's a function of the new approach rather than sample-size randomness, he's more than just a lefty specialist and could work full innings in leveraged spots for some clubs.



• Koji Uehara,RHP: The fastball isn't big, and it's kind of straight, but he's the Vermeer of the strike zone and he can miss bats with his splitter. I could see teams shying away from him because he rarely cracks 90 mph, and he'd be a bad fit in parks like Colorado or Arizona where his lack of velocity could make his home run problem worse, but that limitation and his age also make him a potential bargain for teams with more flexibility in their bullpens.



• Carlos Villanueva, RHP: Villanueva took offense when the Blue Jays' GM, Alex Anthopoulos, questioned whether he could hold up as a starter over a full 200-inning season, but that's not the ideal role for Villanueva anyway, because his off-speed stuff backs up when he's starting. He is, however, pretty flexible for a reliever, able to pitch multiple innings and handle occasional starting duty. Swingmen are scarce resources and much more valuable in an era of 12- and even 13-man pitching staffs. The reliever who can help you carry an extra position player on your bench is worth far more than a lefty specialist.



• Joakim Soria, RHP: It all comes down to health with Soria, who missed 2012 after the second Tommy John surgery of his career, and probably wasn't 100 percent during a slightly disappointing 2011 season. Soria works with a starter's arsenal in the 'pen but the bulk of his success comes on his four-seamer and his cutter, thanks in large part to deception in his delivery -- something that should be undiminished by the operation. Interest will be high given his reputation, but the medicals may keep his guaranteed money low enough for bargain-hunting teams to stay in the mix. Ryan Madson, who has had only one Tommy John surgery but has less capital-c Closer experience, also fits in this general category.



Trade targets


• Joel Hanrahan, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates: The Pirates' run of faux-contention in July may have cost them an opportunity to cash in Hanrahan for younger, more valuable properties. They really should have dealt Hanrahan last offseason, when he was clearly a luxury for a team going nowhere, and his value probably will be diminished after a year in which he walked more than a man every other inning and was actually below replacement level according to Fangraphs' WAR, which adjusts his .225 BABIP up to league average. (He'd never posted a BABIP below .282 before 2012, which suggests the .225 mark was a fluke.) He's still 95-97 mph with his fastball, down a tick from the previous two years, but the pitch was flatter this year and he went from a decent ground ball pitcher to a serious fly ball guy. But he still throws hard and has lots of pretty saves -- perhaps some GM will still overvalue his closer experience and overpay for him.



• Chris Perez, RHP, Cleveland Indians: I don't really care about what a player says on Twitter about ownership, or management, or his political views, as long as he's not insulting a large swath of the fan base with something out of bounds like racial slurs. Perez spoke his mind and maybe he shouldn't have, but Cleveland's front office is acting as though he's a toxic asset when he still has value. He was just short of a win above replacement this year, per Fangraphs, despite being used very cautiously all year. On a team that's a little more creative with its relievers and willing to push them to 70 innings, he'd have even more value, especially if the spike in his control (without any loss of velocity) from this year is sustainable. And in Cleveland's defense, they have zero reason to pay him or any reliever $6 to $7 million in 2013, so there's logic in trading Perez. I just wish they weren't so obvious about their disdain for him.



• Huston Street, RHP, San Diego Padres: This is just my opinion, but the two-year, $14 million extension the Padres gave Street this summer, whose arm is basically held together right now with acrylate-copolymer microspheres, was absolute lunacy. (The good thing about his arm is when it falls off, they can just stick it back on again.) A good chunk of Street's value was an illusion created by Petco Park, which has made many a reliever look better than he would have been in a neutral setting, and moving in parts of the fences won't help Street keep the ball in the park. He's guaranteed $14 million over the next two years even though he hasn't thrown 60 innings in a major league season since 2009. He might be adequate because he throws strikes, but the lack of durability and the potential to be homer-prone should have the Padres taking calls on him.

Buyer's guide: Outfielders.

Spoiler: Warning: Spoiler!

This is the first area of depth I've hit in these offseason buyer's guides -- you can see the corner infield and middle infield guides that have already been posted -- with premium players, some solid buy-low or short-deal opportunities and a lot of trade potential.



Best values


These are players who might be undervalued, or at least not wildly overvalued, by the market this offseason. They're not the top-ranked players at their positions, which is based strictly on their future potential but not on what they might be paid and how many years they might receive.

1. Melky Cabrera, LF: I've never been a big Melky fan. I don't like his approach at the plate and have always found him an indifferent fielder, albeit one with a very strong throwing arm. I thought his strong start in 2012 was more randomness than skill, as his BABIP spiked but his other rates were fairly consistent with his 2011 line. But the positive testosterone test may create an opportunity for bargain-seekers, as some teams will choose to avoid Cabrera entirely because they don't want to court controversy or assume the BABIP spike was due to the magic beans. One year and $7-8 million for the 2011 version of Melky is a great deal for any club, even if it's just to try to create some trade value for June or July.



2. Nick Swisher, RF: Interest is running high in the top three outfielders on the market (Josh Hamilton, Michael Bourn, B.J. Upton), which may leave Swisher in the unfortunate position of being too good for the teams seeking one-year bargains but not good enough to compete with his direct competition for the largest free-agent deals. Swisher is a consistent, patient switch-hitter and still very capable from both sides of the plate, and he provides average defense in right. If my guess (and it's just that) that the market won't tip his way turns out to be correct, he'd be a great value on a deal as long as three years.



3. Angel Pagan, CF: So underrated, he might have become overrated. This might be great for him, especially since he played so well in the postseason when the entire industry was watching. I'd love to get Pagan on a two-year deal, something short enough to minimize the chances that his skills decline to the point where he is not an everyday player -- especially his speed, which is a skill that can fade quickly past Pagan's current age of 31. The market could put him into the next category if someone gives him four or even five years.




Worst values


These are players who seem likely to be overpaid by the market or who just aren't worth the 40-man roster spot they'd require.



1. B.J. Upton, Josh Hamilton, and Michael Bourn: All three have huge risk factors that could cause the long-term deals they sign to go sour. Upton is the youngest and the most likely to hold his value over the course of a five-year-deal, including his defensive ability, but he swings and misses a ton and his patience evaporated this year as he tried to do way too much at the plate (perhaps believing that more homers would get him paid). Hamilton's off-field issues aside, he is prone to major injuries and is the oldest of the trio. Any five-year deal takes him well into the age range where most players get hurt more often anyway and the range where bat speed starts to fall off. Bourn has the huge defensive value but depends almost entirely on his legs to help his team. If they go, his value drops dramatically, as he has no power and doesn't walk.



Upton is my top choice of the three. He has the most upside due to his age and broad skill set, while his flaws bother me much less than Hamilton's.



2. Cody Ross, OF: He is not a center fielder, he has a .324 career OBP -- in fact, his .326 figure in 2012 was his career best in a full season -- and his power spike this year was largely a function of playing his home games in Fenway Park, a great place for right-handed hitters. He hit 74 percent of his doubles at home and 59 percent of his homers, posting a .232/.294/.390 line away from Fenway. On a one-year deal to serve as part of a platoon, yes, he has value. Anything more than that for a 32-year-old corner outfielder who doesn't get on base or make much contact is foolhardy.



3. Delmon Young, LF/DH: His defense is poor, bordering on atrocious, he is an unrepentant hacker at the plate, and his makeup stinks. He rakes against left-handers and is just 27, young enough to grow up a little, at least on the field, but like Ross, he is strictly a one-year-deal guy and has to be used correctly to have any value.



Trade targets


• Andre Ethier, RF, Los Angeles Dodgers: I don't get this one either. The Dodgers gave him a five-year, $85 million contract just a few months ago, and now they want to move him? Ethier is probably fairly paid in market terms, but he is not going to produce enough to live up to the contract given his struggles with left-handed pitching, fringy defense and the fact that he'll be 35 when the deal ends. Even if the Dodgers find a taker, they'd likely either take a bad contract in return or have to simply give Ethier away, and despite his limitations, he is not in Vernon Wells territory, where the question is whether the player is even worth the roster spot.



• Jacoby Ellsbury, CF, Boston Red Sox: Ellsbury will be a free agent after the 2013 season and has played only one full season in the past three, with that one full season accounting for more than half of his career home runs. The Red Sox have his potential replacement, Jackie Bradley Jr., already in Double-A and likely to be ready before the end of the 2013 season. Moving Ellsbury's potential $10 million-plus salary for younger players would help the Red Sox accelerate their rebuilding process while increasing their short-term financial flexibility. If another team thinks Ellsbury can get back to even 90 percent of what he was in 2011 -- a reasonable belief if you assume that his 2012 struggles were health-related -- he should fetch one or two elite prospects or young players in return.



• Justin Upton, RF, Arizona Diamondbacks: The D-backs are coy about whether they want to deal Upton, but I keep hearing that GM Kevin Towers doesn't like Upton's approach or his high strikeout totals. I can imagine that watching Upton's at-bats throughout 2012 didn't help matters, as he hit far more weak grounders and popups than a hitter with his bat speed should. He may need a change of scenery, or specifically a change of coaching staff, to get back to his true talent level, and Arizona has a surplus of outfielders with Adam Eaton, Gerardo Parra and Jason Kubel on the roster.



• Shin-Soo Choo, RF, Cleveland Indians: Choo is a free agent after 2013 and has no interest in signing an extension. Cleveland isn't good enough to justify keeping Choo and paying him $7 million or so this year even though he'll be worth more than that if healthy. Health has been a frequent issue for Choo, both in keeping him on the field and allowing him to cover the required ground in right, and he has always had a sizable platoon split. That said, getting him for one year and giving him a platoon partner to try to keep him healthy for the full season would provide plenty of value to the acquiring team.

Buyer's guide: Middle infielders.

Spoiler: Warning: Spoiler!

If you need middle infield help this offseason, don't look to the free-agent market to solve your problems. There are just two true middle infielders on my top 50, and there weren't any other players who were particularly close to making the cut. Teams holding tradable assets at shortstop or at second base have tremendous leverage this winter if they're inclined to make a move.



Best and worst values


• Stephen Drew, SS: The one viable every-day shortstop among free agents, Drew isn't even a certain shortstop going forward because of the leg injury that wiped out a year of playing time and might leave him an inferior defender to what he was before. I'm holding out hope he can recover enough to be solid-average there, which would allow his modest pop and patience to make him an above-average regular, even with his weakness against off-speed stuff.



I would assume he'd like a one-year deal to prove his health and value, after which he could re-enter the market and look for four or more years next winter; I'd be very reluctant to commit multiple years to him before I saw how his leg would hold up over a full year at shortstop.



• Marco Scutaro, 2B: He stunk in Colorado, but that's all forgotten after his three months in San Francisco, where he looked a lot like his younger self, especially at the plate. He's a solid defender at second who doesn't walk much but is a tough out because he controls the strike zone, forcing pitchers to come to him. He's also going to be 37 in 2013 and isn't far removed from a stretch of playing time when it appeared his career might be over, meaning he's a good value for one year and a possible fiasco for two or more.



• Kelly Johnson, 2B: Johnson looked finished in 2012, especially in the second half, even though he'll turn just 31 in February. Playing in a solid hitters' park in Toronto, he posted his worst full-season slugging percentage, and his patience evaporated as the season went on. He's worth a shot on a minor league deal, but, given that he was never a good defender at second anyway, it's hard to foresee him regaining every-day player status.



Trade targets


• Elvis Andrus, SS, Texas Rangers: The Rangers say they're not interested in trading Andrus, which is the right thing to say even if it's not true -- and there's doubt over how true it is, with top prospect Jurickson Profar (a true shortstop) just about ready to step in and take over second-base duties for the big club. Andrus is just 24 and is signed to a very reasonable deal for two more years, so his value in trade is as high as that of any player who might change addresses this season, good enough to get two top prospects in return, or an impact big leaguer if the Rangers want to maintain their shot at the playoffs.



• J.J. Hardy, SS: Baltimore Orioles: There's no indication the Orioles want to trade Hardy, but I'm including him here because they have another shortstop, Manny Machado, ready and available to take over, allowing them to try to add more offense at third base without taking a huge hit on defense. Hardy's production fell off from his 2011 peak, but his power and defense make him a good value for someone at $7 million per year through 2014.



• Yunel Escobar, SS, Toronto Blue Jays: The Blue Jays have Adeiny Hechavarria ready to step in and play shortstop on defense, although his bat isn't there yet and there's a chance it will never be. Escobar's status in Toronto was complicated by a controversy over a homophobic slur he wrote on his eye black and wore on the field, which raised questions about his character that started back in Atlanta, although his trade value is more complicated because he hasn't hit since getting to Toronto. He is signed to a cheap deal and might benefit from a fresh start elsewhere.



• Logan Forsythe, 2B, San Diego Padres: The Padres' long-term second baseman is probably Jedd Gyorko, a fringy defender there who has more potential with the bat than Forsythe does. Forsythe is a natural third baseman who's below-average at second but is good enough to fill in there for a team without a clear in-house option, and his high contact rates give him offensive value even with his lack of power. He's also cheap for another two seasons, giving him even more trade value if the Padres believe Gyorko is ready, which I do.



• Nick Franklin, SS/2B, Seattle Mariners: Franklin has yet to appear in the majors but is Seattle's top position-player prospect.

Buyer's guide: Starting pitchers.

Spoiler: Warning: Spoiler!

There's a lot of quality starting pitching available on the market this winter, with one potential ace in Zack Greinke and a lot of middle-rotation types as well as some interesting one-year flier candidates for the back end of almost any team's rotation. There are also a few teams, three of which I'll discuss below, that have excess starting pitching, giving them highly desirable assets in trade.



Best values


These are players who might be undervalued, or at least not wildly overvalued, by the market this offseason. They're not the top-ranked players at their positions, which is based strictly on their future potential but not on what they might be paid and how many years they might receive.

• Brandon McCarthy: The sabermetric darling and popular man-about-Twitter is coming back from a life-threatening injury sustained when he was hit in the head by a line drive in September, but was otherwise headed for a large payday, perhaps three or four years. Now the head trauma combined with a bout of shoulder soreness over the summer -- he's never thrown more than 180 innings in one season -- have pushed him down the ladder of free-agent starter options. For a team that can stomach the health risk, he's a good mid-rotation option, who can get ground balls and avoid walks to overcome his modest strikeout rate.



• Jeremy Guthrie: Guthrie's first half in Colorado was a fiasco, but he regained much of his value after a trade landed him in Kansas City, refueling his confidence in his fastball and allowing him to return to his old pitching style, getting ahead with the fastball or curveball and finishing guys off with the slider. He's been very durable outside of a fluke injury in 2012 and has above-average control, although he doesn't miss as many bats as he'd need to in order to profile as a No. 3 starter or better. He's likely to be available on a one-year deal to help soak up innings at the back of someone's rotation at a reasonable cost.




Worst values


These are players who seem likely to be overpaid by the market or who just aren't worth the 40-man roster spot they'd require.



• Kyle Lohse: Lohse seems to be in line for a four-year deal, but given his history, there's no way I'd go that far on him. He's never missed many bats, he's not a strong ground ball guy, and he's already 34 years old. He's among the long list of success stories on former pitching coach Dave Duncan's r�sum� but removed from the St. Louis system where he had success, can Lohse even maintain the so-so peripherals he posted over the past two years, none of which really points to an ERA much better than 4.00?



• Edwin Jackson: He looks like a No. 1 and pitches like a No. 4. The Nationals did great to get him on a one-year deal -- and missed an opportunity to get a draft pick or another one-year deal by declining to make him a qualifying offer -- but as with Lohse, he's not a good bet for a three- or four-year contract. The risk with Jackson isn't in downside, since he's been durable and his stuff is consistently there, but in paying for upside that you may never realize. Jackson is one of the ultimate "we can fix him!" guys in any market. Nobody's turned him into an ace yet. Don't pay for him and pretend you're the miracle workers he's always needed.



Who the heck knows?


• Dan Haren: Haren's back problems landed him on the DL in 2012, the first stint of his pro career, and sapped his velocity when he was healthy enough to pitch. He was nearly traded before the deadline, a move that was clearly in the Angels' best interests if they didn't intend to re-sign him or make him a qualifying offer, but nothing came to fruition. Was the Angels' price too high? Or did other teams find something in Haren's medicals that caused them to back off? If he's healthy, he's among the best buy-low candidates on the market, but he also wouldn't be the first elite pitcher to see his career derailed by back issues.



Trade targets


I'm using this space today to talk about teams with surplus pitching and all of their potential trade candidates, since they have great flexibility with those arms and it allows me to cover more names than I'd usually get to discuss.



• Tampa Bay Rays: The Rays are in the catbird seat this offseason because the starting pitching they have available is good, young and affordable, and the emergence of Alex Cobb and Chris Archer gives them a surfeit of options.


James Shields is always the first name to come up in trade rumors, since he's their most expensive player, due to earn $10.25 million in 2013 with a $12 million option for 2014 that can increase due to incentives. He's still a great value at those prices, bearing plus command, an out-pitch changeup, an above-average curveball, and home run rates just a little too high for him to be a front-of-the-rotation guy. Jeremy Hellickson's name has popped up in rumors this winter, although he's not eligible for arbitration until after the 2013 season; the logic in trading him is that his career ERA of 3.06 doesn't line up with his modest strikeout, walk and home run rates, although one explanation is that he's been better with men on base throughout his career.



The player I'd most want to move, were I running the Rays, is Jeff Niemann, who missed most of the year after an Adam Lind line drive broke his leg, returning for one start in which his velocity was down and his shoulder was bothering him. He's had durability issues before, and getting full value for him might be tough after the lost season, but I have the least confidence in him going forward out of their seven existing rotation options.


• Los Angeles Dodgers: The Dodgers have six starters under contract, including Chad Billingsley -- who's probably going to need Tommy John surgery once everyone is no longer in denial -- and are looking at top free-agent starters, which implies that they'd be willing, if not eager, to trade one of the five already under their control. They may not have loved what they saw of Josh Beckett after acquiring him; his fastball is just average now and very straight, so unless he can fully reinvent himself as a command guy who throws more cutters and two-seamers, he's not worth anything close to his salary. Aaron Harang had a year he's unlikely to repeat, posting a 3.61 ERA that's unsupported by his peripherals but might be good enough to convince another team he's more than a fifth starter.



• St. Louis Cardinals: If Jaime Garcia is unavailable for Opening Day 2013 because of shoulder woes, the Cardinals would have one open spot in their rotation with as many as three prospects potentially ready to fill that spot: Shelby Miller, Trevor Rosenthal and Joe Kelly. Miller is the strongest overall prospect of the three, with the most complete arsenal and the most experience; Rosenthal has the highest upside, touching 100 in relief and holding 94-97 deep into starts; Kelly is the least likely of the three to last as a starter, lacking the command or the off-speed stuff to miss enough bats. Chris Carpenter isn't a lock for 200 innings, so the Cards will want to retain some starting pitching depth, but could deal one of the three prospects.

Rays must deal a pitcher.

Spoiler: Warning: Spoiler!

The Tampa Bay Rays have more starting pitchers than they can use. Meanwhile, they probably will lose three of the seven players on their team who topped 10 homers in 2012, and even with those guys, the Rays still needed more offense. Furthermore, the upper reaches of their farm system are not overflowing with talent for the first time in what seems like forever. Something's gotta give.



Three pitchers have been consistently bandied about as potential trade bait: Jeremy Hellickson, David Price and James Shields. There are good cases for each. No matter whether you think Hellickson is as good as his career ERA (3.06) or as bad as his career FIP (4.46), it's reasonable to conclude that he is the weakest link of the three. Price is a true ace, and would bring the best package in return.



Moreover, as Dave Cameron noted last week, he's about to get really expensive. He could make up to $10 million next season via arbitration, and another good season could push his salary into the $13 million to $15 million range in 2014.

Shields falls in the middle, as he brings both an expected level of above-average performance as well as a contract that is set in stone for the next two years at a reasonable price.



There also are arguments for keeping each. Hellickson's performance may have a wider range of expected outcomes than that of Price or Shields, but he's also going to make the league minimum next season. Shields has been with the team the longest and has been consistently good during that tenure -- he has posted at least a 2.0 WAR in each of the past six seasons. Price is also consistent, but with the intensity cranked up a few notches. In the past six seasons, just 14 pitchers have posted a 4.0 WAR or better in three straight seasons, and just seven -- Zack Greinke, Felix Hernandez, Clayton Kershaw, Cliff Lee, CC Sabathia, Justin Verlander and Price -- have done so in the past three seasons. Expensive or not, Price is a guy who is going to be hard to replace.



So which pitcher should the Rays most aggressively try to move?



[+] Enlarge
Gary A. Vasquez/US Presswire
The Rays could get Ethier, but the Dodgers would have to eat much of his salary.The answer depends partly on how the Rays look to pursue this offseason. The American League East is looking mighty vulnerable these days -- the New York Yankees are getting old in a hurry, the Baltimore Orioles will be hard-pressed to get such amazing performances out of their bullpen for a second straight season, and the Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox currently have more problems than they have solutions. With teams not wanting to have to deal with potential "infield fly" plays in wild-card play-in games, winning the division is more important than ever, and if the Rays retained both Price and Shields, they may stand the best chance of taking the AL East in 2013.



Or would it? Although Price is likely irreplaceable, is Shields? Alex Cobb's 93 FIP-minus -- which is a stat that shows how a pitcher's FIP stacks up in relation to the league average -- was pretty close to Shields' 88 FIP-minus. And at the end of the season, Chris Archer came up and struck out 36 batters in 29 1/3 innings. Either of them -- or Matt Moore -- could be just as good as Shields next season, and each will make the league minimum.



And while flipping Hellickson would keep the team's current two best pitchers locked in, would the package they receive give them a markedly better team? That depends how teams view Hellickson, but if they believe that he will suffer away from Tropicana Field and the Rays' elite defense, he may not bring back as much as Shields. And, if Hellickson is the one traded, there is no cash freed up with which to target offensive upgrades, either.



Shields carries fewer questions marks. He carries no discernible platoon split, and has been much better on the road the past two seasons. Also, he has a $9 million team option for 2013 and a $12 million team option for 2014, which is reasonable for a pitcher of his caliber.



As such, he should bring back a fatter trade package. Speculation obviously will shift to Justin Upton, who is once again on the trading block. Kendrys Morales might be available, and he enjoyed a fine final two months of the season. Andre Ethier is available, though the Los Angeles Dodgers likely would have to eat a large chunk of his contract to facilitate any deal with Tampa Bay. All of these guys would be in the discussion in a trade for Shields. Surely other names will be floated as the offseason progresses, as well.



Some alternatives


However, major league players need not be the sole targets here. Tampa Bay's farm system suddenly is not the best in the game. Many of the Rays' best prospects have never seen Double-A or have spent less than half a season there. And those in the upper minors -- such as Tim Beckham, Alex Colome and Hak-Ju Lee -- haven't exactly set the world on fire. Colome hasn't posted a BB/9 lower than 3.75 in any of his stops the past two years, and neither Beckham nor Lee hit even .260 this past season. In other words, the Rays could deal Shields for upper-level prospects and use the money saved on his contract to target someone in free agency.



Recently departed B.J. Upton might have priced himself out of Tampa, but what about Angel Pagan? He could step right into the center-field void, and figures to make $10 million to $11 million a year in his new deal, most of which could come from the savings of dealing Shields. If not Pagan, perhaps Melky Cabrera, Ryan Ludwick or Shane Victorino could be targets. Either way, due to the difference in salary, dealing Shields figures to open up more possibilities than would dealing Hellickson.



This past season, the Rays allowed the fewest runs in baseball, but were just 18th-best at scoring them. The team needs help on the offensive side of the ball. Tampa Bay general manager Andrew Friedman acknowledged as much this week at the GM meetings. "We have a lot of things we need to accomplish without a ton of resources," he said.

One of their chief resources is starting pitching. Deciding which pitcher to deal, be it Hellickson, Price, Shields or someone else, isn't an enviable process, but if Tampa Bay wants to put a complete team on the field next season, a trade needs to be made.

 

[mr jordan04]

Hamilton wants 7 years $175 million

Who bites that bullet

I see Josh Hamilton relapsed again

 

[jumpmanfromdabay]

Hamilton wants 7 years $175 million

Who bites that bullet

I see Josh Hamilton relapsed again

 

[dland24]

I just pray that Sabean doesn't give him that deal. Still rather have Pagan who is perfect for AT&T Park

I am assuming you are saying you would rather have Pagan for the price, because saying you want Pagan over Hamilton is ******ed.

Pagan played better in 2012 than he is. Before this year, Pagan was an AWFUL defensive CFer. I would love to have him back too, but if we are talking about $12M a year, I am good. No thanks.

who would you like to have in CF thats cheaper than Pagan? Bourne and Hamilton are going to want way more

Its not necessarily about who is cheaper....I just dont think Pagan is worth anything close to $12M a year. If thats what it would take to sign him, we might as well spend more money and get Bourn or Hamilton. Spend $5M more a year and get Michael Born instead? Yeah I will do that instead.

Oh and Happy Birthday Pro!! Thanks for all the hard work you do on this thread. Its appreciated. Enjoy your night bro!

 

[rawex5]

Happy birthday, Pro.

 

[gunna get it]

BJ Upton rejected a one year/13M dollar offer from the Rays

 

[651akathepaul]

I wouldn't be surprised if Seattle makes an offer for Upton.