The Yankees are trying to navigate this difficult terrain: They want to position themselves to contend for a championship in 2015 without taking on onerous long-term contracts at a time when their roster is, at minimum, problematic.
This is why they are involved so deeply with Andrew Miller.
Let’s try an explanation:
The Royals showed last season that an indomitable late-game bullpen could be the key element in a team getting to the World Series. In conjunction with an elite defense, Kansas City used its powerhouse late-game trio of Greg Holland, Wade Davis and Kelvin Herrera to cover up for blemishes, namely, a good but not championship rotation and a middle-of-the-road offense.
The strategy is to win a disproportionate amount of toss-up games due to the strength of the pen, hope that is enough to push toward 90 wins or more and — should you get into the playoffs — have a proven October formula for success by reducing games to six innings.
After spending $458 million on four long-term contracts last offseason and having a bunch of dead-weight deals on what should be a $220 million-plus payroll already, the Yankees are tentative about doing more mega-deals. Translation: No Max Scherzer or Jon Lester.
Nevertheless, the Yankees’ current roster construction leaves them without a clear area of strength. But if the Yankees were to purchase Miller and either retain David Robertson or sign another closer type to team with Dellin Betances, they could have a formidable back-end pen. Particularly if recently obtained Justin Wilson and last year’s top pick, Jacob Lindgren, can give the Yankees high-end lefty pen work.
The Yankees outperformed their run differential in each of the past two seasons, to some large degree because of how well manager Joe Girardi and pitching coach Larry Rothschild maneuvered relievers to their strengths. The Yankees’ 100-67 record in 2013-14 in games decided by two or fewer runs was by far the majors’ best.
A pen with Miller, Robertson and Betances would be better than what the club had the last two seasons.
It would support a rotation with tons of questions and then if, say, Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda, CC Sabathia and Ivan Nova did not succumb to worrisome health concerns, the Yankees would have a strong rotation and pen. And/or if Carlos Beltran, Jacoby Ellsbury and Brian McCann perform better in Yankees Year 2, then the team’s lineup also would be stronger.
Obviously, there are a lot of ifs here and that usually bodes poorly. But, at the least, the pen almost certainly would be a strength with a chance for other areas to fall positively, providing a road map to contention.
Still, it will be difficult to build that pen. The Yankees tolerance for Miller or Robertson seems to be three years in the $30 million to $39 million range. Both players are striving for four-year pacts in the area of Jonathan Papelbon’s $52 million deal. The Yankees are currently saying they will not go to that level. So if the Astros, Dodgers, Cubs, Rangers, Red Sox or any other organization interested in one or the other differentiates itself by going to four years that franchise likely will get the relievers. If not and the Yankees are willing to make a fourth-year option that triggers, then maybe they win.
Would they sign both relievers? Perhaps. But if they do, I wonder if that taps out their budget and they have to shut down multi-year pursuits of players such as Brandon McCarthy and Chase Headley and rely on either one-year options or internal alternatives for rotation depth and either second or third base.
Perhaps, the Yankees would be willing to ink just Miller and have a lefty-righty dynamic duo with Betances that could get three-to-six outs from the sixth inning on a few times a week, and then sign a traditional closer who will cost considerably less than Robertson, such as Jason Grilli or Sergio Romo. I do think the Yankees would like to be more aggressive with their pen — not have hard-and-fast sixth-, seventh- and eighth-inning roles and, instead, attack winnable games with their best relievers as often and for as many outs that are reasonable without courting injury.
Could you make a case that even if Miller and Robertson cost a combined $80 million to $90 million on three- or four-year deals that they would impact at least as many games — if not more — than, say, Scherzer on a pact that would be double that or more and a riskier seven or eight years?
This is where, I believe, the Yankees thinking is now: Trying to enhance a long-shot title quest by following a Royals path without overly exposing themselves to long-term risk.