2014-15 Official Lakers Season Thread, Vol: We Love Each Other

How Many Wins This Season?

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I'm just curious how patient Mitch, Jimmy and Jeanie are.

Cuban passed on re-signing Chandler in 2011, struck out on Deron in 2012 and Dwight in 2013, then locked up Calderon, Monta, and a few other players to short-term, friendly contracts in 2013.
 
I'm just curious how patient Mitch, Jimmy and Jeanie are.

Cuban passed on re-signing Chandler in 2011, struck out on Deron in 2012 and Dwight in 2013, then locked up Calderon, Monta, and a few other players to short-term, friendly contracts in 2013.

My guess... Not very patient, but patient enough to "do no harm" which is why Randle wasn't shipped off, and why they didn't just get IT2, Lance & somebody else. Didn't want to make a move they didn't fully feel was the right one.

They'll probably fight like hell to try and make a huge mid-season trade. But I think they'll likely just unload Hill to a playoff team for either a 2015 1st or 2016 1st.


For next year, I think they'll make a huge run at Marc Gasol, which every writer who has looked at the 2015 FA class has already said that Gasol is the perfect guy next to Randle. Better situation in Memphis, but will they ever contend? Answer is no. That's what they'll hope for.



I'm disappointed we don't have something for the future (from Free Agency). But I definitely see their hesitation to not take a leap. We are damned if we do, damned if we don't.
 
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If Deandre can't be re-signed by the Clips, they will have options after Gasol in Asik and Jordan as well. Someone to anchor a defense next to Randle going forward.
 
If Deandre can't be re-signed by the Clips, they will have options after Gasol in Asik and Jordan as well. Someone to anchor a defense next to Randle going forward.

That too.

In a perfect world. If all 3 are up for grabs, have to take Gasol even at the much higher price tag because he's so damn good. And the other 2 are monsters at one side of the ball.
 
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Robin Lopez and Kosta Koufos could be decent bargains too.
 
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Honest question

I thought young and cheap was the blueprint going forward, but Gasol is neither and has a history of getting injured.....why should he get a max ?
 
Because we have absolutely nothing here to attract top free agents.

Gasol and randle atleast gives you some type of core to sell to free agents
 
Honest question

I thought young and cheap was the blueprint going forward, but Gasol is neither and has a history of getting injured.....why should he get a max ?
I can't speak for everyone else, but I want a young(er) and cheap(er) supporting cast to attract a star (like Houston-Dwight or Cleveland-LeBron). Age matters for the star the team is trying to sign.
 
Honest question

I thought young and cheap was the blueprint going forward, but Gasol is neither and has a history of getting injured.....why should he get a max ?

Premium position.

If Randle is a block, need to enhance him. He isn't a strong defender (yet) so need someone that compliments his game. A big, tough, defensive 7 footer. And there aren't a lot of them. Next year tho, Gasol, Asik, and Jordan could be available. We need one. Marc is the best of the 3, but would settle for any of them.

As for youth, Randle, Clarkson, Houston pick, Kelly, Henry, and the top 5 I'm praying we can salvage is 6 young pieces to build with. Gasol would be one 30 year old. And might help lure Durant, who'd be only 26-27 himself in 2016.
 
Alex Kennedy ‏@AlexKennedyNBA 12s
I'm told that Michael Beasley had a second workout with the Los Angeles Lakers today. We'll see if the Lakers sign him.

We'll see if he gets another rental car repo'd this time
It's like Mitch and co. are trolling us.


They have absolutely zero clue about their perception these days. It's like they are building 2K rosters and thinking it looks nice on paper or something. :lol

thats exactly what they are doing though.
 
Bradford Dolittle of ESPN:
Jahlil Okafor or Emmanuel Mudiay?
(Teams that averaged fewer than 25 wins per simulation, ordered by projected wins)

Los Angeles Lakers (23.1), Orlando Magic (22.1), Philadelphia 76ers (10.9)



Both SCHOENE and RPM are in agreement about the Magic and Sixers, though it would be a mild surprise if Orlando is actually this bad. As for the Lakers, RPM methodology sees them as about a 24-win team in a vacuum. SCHOENE is at around 30 wins. There is no optimism to be found in either forecast. When you combine those numbers and run them through the gauntlet of a Western Conference schedule, you get the worst season in Lakers history. If the Kobe Bryant of 10 years shows up, sure, things will look better. But it seems like a big "if."
:eek :lol at the Sixers' projected win total.

23-25 wins sounds about right. Maybe 30 if the team gets lucky.

Here's how he came up with the projections:
Just before the start of the 2014-15 season, we sorted teams into tiers based on projections, and we're repeating the process today to see where teams stand after a tumultuous offseason. Team baseline win projections have been formulated by combining early SCHOENE forecasts with team projections generated by the same RPM-based methodology we used last week to rank players.

The hope is to balance out any inherent biases within the two systems and, in reality, the forecasts are pretty close for all but a couple of teams. Baseline wins were plugged into a Monte Carlo-style simulator of the 2014-15 schedule that accounted for home-court advantage and other scheduling factors. Finally, the top eight players on each team were used to calculate a postseason baseline, and using the seeds from each simulated regular season, the playoffs were played out. This process was repeated 1,000 times.

The results of all those probabilities and random numbers serve as the basis for separating the teams in tiers below. A lot has changed since last season. (To see just how much, just click on the final version of last spring's Hollinger Playoff Odds.) Each team's average win total in the 1,000 simulations is listed in parenthesis.
 
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Honest question

I thought young and cheap was the blueprint going forward, but Gasol is neither and has a history of getting injured.....why should he get a max ?

Young and cheap unless the guy is a difference maker on his own. The Lakers can't afford to sink a lot of money into a guy unless he can get W's and other dudes to play with him.

Marc could fit the bill, in some ways better than Melo this past summer.
 
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470-475 range.

GTB, that was 3 weeks ago. We had more discussion prior to that, about 2 months or somewhere in there. I have 20 posts per page, and right now we are on 605. So 470 is what I saw when I went back checking.
 
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I was looking at the Magic to Shaq-Kobe rebuild more indepthly.

That type of rebuild will never happen again.

Missed the playoffs once.

1989 Divac at 26
1990 Campbell at 27
1992 Peeler at 15
1993 Lynch at 12
1993 Van Exel at 37
1994 Jones at 10
1994 Traded for Ceballos (25years old at the time) using our 1995 First Rounder (became Michael Finley)
1996 Trade Divac for Kobe
1996 Fisher at 24


A few reasons why:
1. Teams now get 7-8-9 years of control over their 1st Round Picks before they become Unrestricted Free Agents. If you want a solid young guy before they are an Unrestricted, you have to drastically overpay for that guy, and then hope he becomes who you want. It really is nonsensical because that hurts everyone. The reason behind that is because it messes with the flow of players, you'd have a lot more player movement, and not just to Big Market Teams. Instead, you can hold a star hostage for half of their career, and have zero incentive to build a team around them. Shaq was 24 when he was a Free Agent, 4 years into the league. In today's terms that would be like Anthony Davis becoming an Unrestricted Free Agent in 2016.
2. First Round Picks were moved often back then. It allowed owners to be less stingy with 1st round picks, so they could be easily moved, acquired. Now you have an almost permanent protection on a player for years, so it takes everything to pry just the idea (a first round pick) away from another team even in the 20s.
3. Getting a player like Divac at 26, Campbell at 27, and Van Exel at 37 is insane. It suspends the belief of reality to see this happen.

Never fell to the lowest depths of the NBA, a playoff team from that, and hit on every pick (at least when they were on the Lakers). Including Kobe. If Kobe doesn't become Kobe. 2000-2001-2002 are very different.


You look at where we are, we have a good start, but Kelly, Sacre have to play twice as good as they have. Right now they are end of the bench guys, and Clarkson is up in the air, who know what he gets. Everybody was happy about Goudelock & Morris when drafted, and neither is here. Doing what was done in the 90s is a long shot, by that I mean build through draft completely first, then go after your star. To me that Suns pick is gone already, unless by some miracle of the draft lottery.

2012: Sacre at 60 Vastly outperformed his slot, but he has to get better or else he will be unnecessary.
2013: Kelly at 48 Best pick of that Second Round. With Pierre going down with a serious injury, safe bet he will keep that title.
2014: Randle at 7 Following the 90s Lakers mold, all he needs to be is very good, doesn’t need to be great. We can go after great in Free Agency.
2014: Clarkson at 46
2015: 21-25, 37-40.. Maybe we get lucky and get a late teens pick and a 2016 1st somehow.

We have to get a star & good starter in the offseason to play next to Kobe & Randle (Marc Gasol & Dragic is my choice). Then we have enough to add another star with Randle, the 2 starters we signed in 2015. Possible 2 picks in the 1st (maybe 3 if Silver gives us the Dan Gilbert special), an early 2nd in 2015 followed by our pick + 2nd in 2016.

Would be different from the 90s rebuild because everything we got to get to Shaq was through the draft or using draft assets.

Hell we could afford to trade away Peeler, who was a very solid contributor for absolutely nothing because we had Exel, Campbell, Jones, Divac at the time (he was destined to be moved) still here. If we got a #15 pick, and traded it for 2 second round picks this year, it would be insanity because we have nothing else. Hell even trading Kelly for 2 Second Rounders would be insanity.
 
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As much as I like Marc it worries me about him being so big, 30, and injury prone.

I don't want to be dealing with 30 yr old big man injuries for the life of his contract. I'd rather just go after DeAndre ...but I know for a FACT he would never come to the Lakers and he would command the max and I couldn't stand that either
 
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