2013 Academy Awards -- Picture: ARGO, Director: ANG LEE, Actress: JENNIFER LAWRENCE, Actor: Who else

What's gonna win Best Picture?

  • Amour

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Argo

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Beasts of the Southern Wild

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Django Unchained

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Les Misérables

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Life of Pi

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Lincoln

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Silver Linings Playbook

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Zero Dark Thirty

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    0
  • Poll closed .
Courtesy of my site AfterTheCut, I paired up with another film fanatic to break down a few of the major categories worth discussing for the 85th Academy Awards.

Dave and Dan Dissecting the Oscars:

What we did was use a similar technique the folks over at Grantland do during a game or for a big discussion they send emails back and forth and eventually throw it in a post and make it look like a conversation. So we did that here on a smaller scale talking about the big categories for the Oscars. Some of you betting folks will get help inside the posts as well.

Let us know what you think, we took a lot of time talking about this and then executing it. Hope you guys enjoy!!

HERE WE GO:

Dave and Dan Dissecting the Oscars - Best Picture - http://wp.me/p2CCWq-2CK

Dave and Dan Dissecting the Oscars - Best Actor - http://wp.me/p2CCWq-2CN

Dave and Dan Dissecting the Oscars - Best Actress - http://wp.me/p2CCWq-2CO

Dave and Dan Dissecting the Oscars - Best Supporting Actor - http://wp.me/p2CCWq-2Dj

Dave and Dan Dissecting the Oscars - Best Director - http://wp.me/p2CCWq-2Do

Dave and Dan Dissecting the Oscars - Closing Thoughts - http://wp.me/p2CCWq-2Dt
 
So with wins from the PGA, DGA, WGA, BAFTA, and SAG, plus the Golden Globes, it's looking like Argo is easily the frontrunner. I'm not mad at all. I thought it was a great movie and very importantly, a well made one. I won't be shocked if we see it riding the momentum into the ceremony only to be beat by Lincoln, but I'd be disappointed for sure.

I look at awards the same way a professor explained his paper grades to me. If you try for something really great and ambitious in your thesis, but you fall sort on the technical aspects (your vocabulary, syntax, style, etc.) then you'd get a B+ or A- as your highest grade. Conversely, if you play it safe and don't  try something too innovative for your subject, but everything else is expertly written and very impressive, then you'd get the same grade. It's the rare movies that do both. I judge movies the same way when looking at "the best". 

This year, I can separate the movies like so

Great ambition but fell short elsewhere

Beasts of the Southern Wild

Les Mis

Zero Dark Thirty

Lincoln

Nothing revolutionary but just a damn good movie

Silver Linings Playbook

Argo

And the rare movie that does both... Django Unchained. I didn't get to see Amour or Life of Pi. I'd assume Pi would fall under the first category. When I can't decide between one category or the other, I usually go with the better movie over the more ambitious, but flawed one. Not always... of course. Most notably I'd say The Social Network and True Grit were easily better than The King's Speech when it won Best Picture. 

Django won't win, we all know that. But it's my pick for best of the year. Daring, funny, powerful, and a unique movie that did so many things well. Lincoln was very good, but it didn't do enough for me outside of DDL, the comic relief of the guys trying to get the votes through devious means, and Tommy Lee Jones scenes. I do think if I saw it again I'd think more highly of it, but as of now it's on the outside. Zero Dark Thirty was carried by Chastain and a lot of great tension and suspense... but it didn't move me the way it should have. Argo and Silver Linings  are two sides of the same coin. Nothing that innovative or new, but were well paced and written movies, hit all the marks they needed to, and were just top to bottom, an impressive couple of movies. Between the two, I picked Silver Linings Playbook off the strength of the acting (which I felt was superior to Argo) and because I always root for the comedy (albeit a dramedy and romantic comedy) to win Best Picture. 
 
[h1]Oscar Travesties![/h1]A tournament to determine the worst Academy Award moment in modern history

By Mark Lisanti on February 13, 2013 from Grantland

No mass cultural event has the capacity to infuriate like the Oscars. There's no logical reason why we should care about the giant party the Academy throws itself each year to distribute a few dozen gilded eunuch statuettes to its temporarily most-favored members, or the brutal, months-long campaign that seeks to sway the opinions of the organization's most suggestible voters, or the names that are read from a series of dramatically opened envelopes during a four-hour telethon dedicated to the eradication of ego-poverty in the greater Beverly Hills area.

Yet we do. We bellyache by the watercooler; we filibuster on our Twitter accounts; we bore the living **** out of anyone within earshot about how Lincoln was just an overblown history lesson, Argo a competent-enough piece of mainstream filmmaking, Silver Linings Playbook a screwball trifle that ends in identical fashion to every Drew Barrymore rom-com ever made. We draw battle lines. We take sides. We formulate pro and con arguments about how much exposed flesh Ben Affleck is allowed to demand of Ben Affleck before he self-violates his nudity rider.

And when the movies and directors and actors and Victorian-period-garbers and stacks of three-hole-punched paper we like the most are not the ones winning the statues, we get pissed. How dare they deny Pulp Fiction its due, stab Goodfellas in the gut as it squirms helplessly in Kevin Costner's trunk, nod in Michael Haneke's direction when Kathryn Bigelow is standing right there in front of their faces? How's Driving Miss Daisy working out for everybody? Anyone not want to suffocate themselves with that plastic bag from American Beauty when they think about Kevin Spacey whaling on his abs in his garage?

There we go, getting all riled up about stuff that doesn't matter. Maybe it's because we have too much time on our hands, or think that our ticket purchase somehow constitutes a Best Picture vote. Maybe it's because it's a steaming load of a headless horse's **** that nobody thought to give Michael Corleone an Oscar, but then handed him one for hoo-ahing it up with Robin 20 years later.

We shouldn't get upset. Yet we do.

And then we make brackets. It's the only sensible response to the last 40 years of pent-up awards rage.

grant_e_oscar_gb1_1152.jpg


Methodology

This bracket, as they all do, began as a shouting match in a conference room, involved a selection process even more corrupt than that of the Oscars themselves, and was meticulously engineered to inspire the greatest possible levels of righteous outrage in its organizers and participants alike. Graft, strong-arming, whisper campaigns, misinformation, Weinsteining: It's all in there. It seemed both logical and appropriate that our own methods should be every bit as dysfunctional as the Academy's.

We did, however, set a cut-off date of 1972. Nothing previous to The Year of The Godfather was considered. We warned you we were arbitrary and corrupt.

Intermission: Steven Spielberg Watches Himself Get Snubbed for Jaws





The Nominees: A Taxonomy of Travesties

What constitutes an Oscar Travesty? Here are all 32 nominees, grouped in relatively self-explanatory categories to help illustrate what's going on here. Did we throw in a bunch of things that weren't about a particular movie/person winning or not winning an award, just because it seemed that this would be even more fun this way? We sure did. Stoned hosts, Benignis, dresses, siblings making us uncomfortable, the entire history of the song category — why not mix it up? They're all part of the travesty tapestry. The only important thing is that at the end of this process, we all have one target for our collective rage. That seems a worthy enough goal.

Tough Calls That Went the Wrong Way

Kramer vs. Kramer over Apocalypse Now
The English Patient over Fargo

On the Wrong Side of History

Rocky over Taxi Driver, Network, and All the President's Men
Dances With Wolves over Goodfellas
Forrest Gump over Pulp Fiction

Fresh Snubs

Zero Dark Thirty's Kathryn Bigelow for Best Director
The Dark Knight for Best Picture

Performance Issues

Samuel L. Jackson in Pulp Fiction loses to Martin Landau in Ed Wood
Bill Murray in Lost in Translation loses to Sean Penn in Mystic River
Denzel Washington in Malcolm X loses to Al Pacino in Scent of a Woman
John Travolta in Saturday Night Fever loses to Richard Dreyfuss in The Goodbye Girl
Al Pacino never winning for The Godfather

Looks Pretty Bad in Hindsight

American Beauty
Driving Miss Daisy


Prolonged Injustices

Martin Scorsese denied until The Departed
An Oscarless Spike Lee

Unfixable Errors

Stanley Kubrick, 0 for Best Director
John Cazale, never nominated in his tragically way-too-short, but nearly perfect career

WTF

13 (!) nominations for Benjamin Button
Angelina Jolie kissing her brother
The Best Song category
Every Dance Number Ever
Rob Lowe and Snow White

Harvey Weinstein Killed Some People

Shakespeare in Love over Saving Private Ryan
The King's Speech over The Social Network

In-Show Shenanigans

Billy Crystal's blackface
James Franco's hosting
Uma, Oprah
Seth MacFarlane, preemptively
Roberto Benigni's victory rampage

Fashion

Björk's swan dress

Crash

Crash
 
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I will never forgive the Academy for not giving Gosling a nomination for Blue Valentine. They did it again last year with snubbing him for Drive. Never ever ever forgive them.
 
+1 I watched Blue Valentine again last week and DAMN, that is a quality film all around. Gosling played that part so well.
well I can say I voted for Argo in this poll and was shocked at NT's response for Lincoln way ahead.
I did as well. Lincoln was very good, but man, I thought it was boring as all hell. The ENTIRE film was dialogue.

Argo was great because even though I knew the outcome, it was still gripping.
 
How was Hugo Weaving never nominated for best supporting actor in the Matrix? Leon: The Professional never nominated for anything? Javier Bardem not nominated for Skyfall? Oscars are a #%@#%@%@ joke.
 
The supporting actors this year were pretty strong... so I'm not shocked Barden didn't get a nom. 
 
MY OSCAR PREDICTIONS

Best Picture

Will Win: Argo

Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty

Could Win: Silver Linings Playbook

Analysis: Revenge is a dish best served cold and Ben Affleck is handing filet mignon to the Academy straight out of a freezer. It’s been a redemption tour since he was snubbed at the nominations, as seemingly every award show he was the focus. That being said Zero Dark Thirty is still my favorite film of the year followed by Silver Linings Playbook. Only film that can beat Argo logically is Harvey Weinstein’s baby but all the momentum is in Argo’s favor.

Best Director

Will Win: David O. Russell – Silver Linings Playbook

Should Win: Kathryn Bigelow – Zero Dark Thirty

Could Win: Steven Spielberg – Lincoln, Ang Lee – Life of Pi

Analysis: My should win wasn’t even nominated which is bologna. I’m putting my money of O. Russell because I think he deserves it for the way he told the story. He got the most out of the actors and it was a breath of fresh air. Early favorite Spielberg has lost steam and it’s going to be interesting to see how or if the Academy is in Lincoln’s corner, we’ll know early on. The dark horse here really is Ang Lee. I’m hearing a lot of chatter for Lee as possibly coming on late and stealing the award. While Life of Pi was impressive visually and hold a touching story, I can’t see a valid argument being made for Lee over the others mentioned.

Best Actor In A Leading Role

Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln

Should Win – Joaquin Phoenix – The Master

Could Win – No one.

Analysis: Phoenix has my vote for performance of the year but there really is no point in talking about this, just give DDL the Oscar.

Best Actress In A Leading Role

Will Win: Jessica Chastain – Zero Dark Thirty

Should Win: Jessica Chastain – Zero Dark Thirty

Could Win: Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook / Emmanuelle Riva – Amour

Analysis: This is one where I throw my hands in the air. Chastain was my favorite performance of the year and Lawrence was inches behind her. I won’t be upset if either wins. There is chatter, and I mentioned it months ago, where if the two would cancel each other out with votes from the Academy, Riva could steal the award…but I doubt it. Chastain is my pick!

Best Actor In A Supporting Role

Will Win: Christoph Waltz – Django Unchained

Should Win: Christoph Waltz – Django Unchained

Could Win: Tommy Lee Jones – Lincoln, Robert De Niro – Silver Linings Playbook

Analysis: I don’t think we’ve had a category where four out of the five nominees could feasibly win. Waltz was the most fun performance and I think it really carried the film. Then again De Niro, TLJ and Hoffman all had similar impacts in their film. This will be the first category where folks should be locked in on their T.V. with really no idea who takes home the statue.

Best Actress In A Supporting Role

Will Win: Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables

Analysis: Nothing to discuss here, It’s Hathaway’s award. End of story.

Best Original Screenplay

Will Win: Mark Boal – Zero Dark Thirty

Should Win: Mark Boal – Zero Dark Thirty

Could Win: Quentin Tarantino – Django Unchained

Analysis: After speaking to Mark Boal after an early screening of Zero Dark Thirty my message to him was simple. A hand shake and a thank you for making such brilliance. The thing is here it seems like Tarantino is making a push for the award but my dark horse is actually John Gatins for Flight. The film surprised me, I enjoyed how well Gatins made it work even though realistically it has no shot. In a less competitive crowd the award would be handed to Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola – Moonrise Kingdom unfortunately that’s not the case this year.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will Win: Chris Terrio – Argo

Should win: David O. Russell – Silver Linings Playbook

Could Win: Tony Kushner – Lincoln

Analysis: This is another momentum award and I think Argo is trending upward. But this is also another category that is hard to predict and is completely up in the air just like Best Supporting Actor.

Best Foreign Language Film

Will Win: Amour

Analysis: Nothing to talk about here, it’s Amour all the way.

Best Animated Feature Film

Will Win: Wreck-It Ralph

Should Win: Wreck-It Ralph

Could Win: Brave

Analysis: Wreck-It Ralph was such a marvelous film that it made me feel like a kid again. The fact is the story was geared for younger adults, with the look of a kids film, filled with cameos that draw in the old and young audience. It was one of my favorite films of the year and I feel like it’ll have the longevity and replay value of many of Disney’s other classics. The film here that can take Ralph’s shine is Brave, and early favorite but I’m going with the other way.

Best Original Song

Will Win: “Skyfall” – Adele

Should Win: “Skyfall” – Adele

Could Win: “Suddenly” – Les Miserables

Analysis: She’ll be performing at the Oscars, she’s won 40349 Grammy’s and her rendition of “Skyfall” was chills inducing. Only way I see she loses is if the Academy goes nuts and feels bad for Les Mis. Hope not.

Best Cinematography
Will Win: Roger Deakins – Skyfall

Analysis: Nothing to talk about here, Deakins is a man amongst boys in this category.

Best Film Editing

Will Win: William Goldenberg – Argo

Should Win: William Goldenberg, Dylan Tichenor - Zero Dark Thirty

Analysis: Two hours and 45 minutes is a long film no matter how you slice it. But when you can slice it in a way where you leave the audience on the edge of their seat and sweating and wanting more, well then you’ve done your job. The fact is Argo is the “it” film right now and unless something drastically chances or we have miscalculated then Argo is going to have a successful evening.

Best Costume Design

Will Win: Paco Delgado – Les Miserables

Should Win: Paco Delgado – Les Miserables

Could Win: Joanna Johnston – Lincoln

Analysis: It’s a two horse race, either could win by Les Miserables was a bit more over the top and costumes on Helena Bonham Carter and Sacha Baron Cohen really stole the show even if the film was a massive bore.

Best Documentary Feature

Will Win: Searching for Sugar Man

Should Win: Searching for Sugar Man

Could Win: The Gatekeepers, How to Survive a Plauge

Analysis: It’s been the favorite since it hit the festival circuit, the musical doc should win easily.

Best Visual Effects

Will Win: Life of Pi

Analysis: Nothing to talk about here, Life of Pi revolutionized the use of effects and 3D, it’s that simple.

Best Production Design

Will Win: Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer – Anna Karenina

Should Win: Rick Carter, Jim Erickson, Peter T Frank – Lincoln

Could Win: Eve Stewart – Les Miserables

Analysis: Not much to say here but this award always goes to the fancy old school set up.

Best Original Score

Will Win: Alexandre Desplat – Argo

Should Win: Alexandre Desplat – Argo

Could Win: Thomas Newman – Skyfall

Analysis: The world and cinema famous Alexandre Desplat is a master with music and his sound has become well known. In Argo he provides the underbelly for tension as Ben Affleck tries to extract hostages from Tehran. It’s not often you take serious note of music in a film but Desplat’s scores often make you take notice.

Best Make Up

Will Win: Les Miserables

Could Win: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Analysis: Not much to say here, expect a second win for Les Mis.

Best Sound Editing

Will Win: Argo

Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty

Could Win: Skyfall

Best Sound Mixing

Will Win: Argo

Should Win: Skyfall

Could Win: Skyfall

Best Documentary Short Film

Will Win: Mondays At Racine

Could Win: Inocente

Best Animated Short

Will Win: Paperman

Analysis: Nothing to say here – simply the best!

Best Live-Action Short Film

Will Win: Curfew
Could Win: Death Of A Shadow
 
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I'm still salty over Denzel not winning for X. Speaking of X, Spike should've won by now. He's made some really good movies

The Color Purple should've won Best Picture IMO.
 
thanks big J - I most did will win and should win as a way to separate my favorites and who i actually / unfortunately think will win.

If anyone wants to see the above predictions I posted with more pictures and more details - http://wp.me/p2CCWq-2Eh

But let me know what you guys think about the predictions - hoping to be at around 70%
 
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I'm still salty over Denzel not winning for X. Speaking of X, Spike should've won by now. He's made some really good movies

The Color Purple should've won Best Picture IMO.
Denzel was unfortunately the victim of the Academy rewarding Pacino for ignoring him all those years. I've noticed that a few times in the past, it's one of the worst examples of the Academy missing an actor's best work, rewarding a lesser, and screwing over someone else.

Pacino never won a Best Actor, The Godfather I or II, which is crazy. So they gave it to him for Scent of a Woman over Denzel. He got his award for Training Day. He was certainly deserving, but so was Russell Crowe for A Beautiful Mind.
 
I'm still salty over Denzel not winning for X. Speaking of X, Spike should've won by now. He's made some really good movies


The Color Purple should've won Best Picture IMO.
Denzel was unfortunately the victim of the Academy rewarding Pacino for ignoring him all those years. I've noticed that a few times in the past, it's one of the worst examples of the Academy missing an actor's best work, rewarding a lesser, and screwing over someone else.

Pacino never won a Best Actor, The Godfather I or II, which is crazy. So they gave it to him for Scent of a Woman over Denzel. He got his award for Training Day. He was certainly deserving, but so was Russell Crowe for A Beautiful Mind.

I agree. A Beautiful Mind was amazing.
 
I'm not so sure about Jessica Chastain winning for Best Actress. She definitely deserves it because she put the whole damn movie on her back, But ZDT has lost way too much steam these last couple of months and I'm thinking it'll be one of the big snubs on Oscar night.
 
I recently read that Rooney Mara was the original star of Zero Dark Thirty but dropped out. I wonder if she would've gotten an Oscar nom out of it.
 
I don't think Chastian losing would be a huge snub because Lawrence was so damn good in her role. This is one of those cases where you really wish you could give co-winner awards because both Chastain and Lawrence have a legitimate claim to the award and I'm already disappointed for the one who loses.

Wesley Morris from Grantland with his picks. I particularly liked his opening.
Every year, right about now, someone asks. What's the point? I mean, the Oscars don't matter anymore, right? The questions then turn into complaints. No one's seen the movies. The ratings for the show are down. The hosts are bad. Why bother with the whole stupid thing? I mean, seriously, Seth MacFarlane?
All this venting — well, my unscientific, non-journalistic rendering of it, anyway — is over a couple of problems. The first is about the state of the movies. And no matter what people say, that state is improving. The major studios are making fewer films and they're doing so in a way that's bringing more people to them. Theater attendance was up last year. The kids and geeks and horror freaks are somewhat guaranteed to be served. It's the grown-ups and grandparents who are feeling boxed out, which leads to the evergreen suspicion that they're not making movies like they used to.

This then gets into the issue of the Oscars' relevance. Adults feel alienated from the Best Picture nominees because they haven't seen them. Kids totally smell the producers pandering to them with "cool" hosts and stoned hosts, while their parents feel jerked around by another return of Billy Crystal, which is probably only a smart idea in theory, based on how out of shape his timing and general sense of comedy were. MacFarlane could turn out to be the right man for the job. But the line between withering and wry is fine, and my guess is that he'll abuse the power to cross it.[sup]1[/sup]

This year's show already feels different, and not simply because of the left-left field choice of MacFarlane and the plan to mount a tribute to movie-musicals. For the first time in years, there's some organic suspense in a couple of the races themselves, and most of the nine movies are inarguable hits. Here are some predictions.
The Academy's demographics are off... there's been laughably absurd snubs and wrong choices in Oscar history... and the politics play far too great a role... but I still like the Oscars and think they're important. You're not the unquestioned "Best Picture" or "Best Actor", but I still love when we get to see the great performances recognized and praised for a night. Or when a great veteran finally gets an award or a young star breaks out, it's good to see. I like focusing on a night not to complain about Hollywood remaking everything or a thousand sequels, but for the great performances from everyone... actors, directors, camera, lights, crew, etc.
 
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well Big J's analysis was cool and agree for the most part. as weird as this is its funny that yes I'm assuming and voted for Argo to win best pic but other than that they have nothing going for them. like a mediocore team winning the super bowl with lackluster offense and defense yet somehow makes it work
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Tarantino will always be to me the cult director. yes people will love him forever, but will never achieve the ultimate prize of an Oscar. if he does he'll have to put in heavy work for it. His trademarks honestly keeps him winning imo. the same actors he uses, the same type of movies just different settings. what was Inglorious about? killing the historically bad guys for fun, Nazis. what was Django? killing the historically bad guys white people/slave owners. Lucas, Lee is the same way in my opinion. only way he'll win is if the movies of a year were really bad. Scorsese I wouldn't consider in this category because he's honestly just been straight snubbed all this time

Found nothing good/surprising/exciting in acting for supporting roles so whoever wins, wins.

Song is always won by a movie that can only will best song.

this is me and my opinion without have seeing Life of Pi, The Master, Flight, and Cloud Atlas. will try to see Master asap since I'm hearing Phoenix's performance is stellar

still excited for the show on sunday, feeling seth Macfarlanes jokes are going to be more rash for the general audience and wont be a crowd pleaser. Chris Rock was always the best host

by the way you guys are cool, can never talk about movies with friends, I'm the only one as a film major or smart for that matter and im not taking my major classes this semester. last semester i did and i felt I can talk about this crap as equals. my friends talmbout avengers was best movie ever n ****.
 
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