get ready for 2-2 out the gates this year, boys (0-2, in fact). Greg's painting a pretty big doom and gloom picture which i think might be a little OD, but for the most part, it's definitely not going to be pretty to start this year. not until Edelman is byke:
Bedard: Analyzing the Patriots’ offensive roster – Tom Brady’s readiness cloudy
By
Greg A. Bedard
Posted on September 3, 2018
Now that the waiver claim process has been completed (for the most part), we can take a little bit of a closer look at the Patriots’ final (for this week) 53-man roster heading into the opener.
Let’s first post my version of the roster, which sort of mixes the Patriots’ system with the regular depth chart. Note — this chart is a snapshot right now
. So Jeremy Hill is ahead of Rex Burkheadat this point, as Burkhead comes back from injury.
(The chart below is visible to members but not visitors)
Let’s go through each position with a few thoughts:
Quarterback
I think, for the first time maybe ever, I’m not really sure how
Tom Brady is going to come out of the blocks. Actually, I expect the passing offense — outside of dump offs to the backs and slip screens — to really struggle for a while. But I’m talking more about Brady in general. He didn’t go to any of the offseason workouts. He didn’t throw for, basically, 10 days in camp, which wasn’t all that competitive. He didn’t complete one pass of over 20 yards in the preseason. He threw just four passes (completed three) between 10 and 20 yards. Sure, Brady didn’t have
Rob Gronkowski, and he changes
a lot of things for the defense. That’s a legit point. But you can’t tell me Brady is as prepared for this season as he has been in the past. He’s not. The opener should be very interesting.
Brian Hoyer is what he is. With that patented ball pat, he’s going to have trouble the more a team sees him. It’s like a green light for the defense to jump the route.
I can see why they kept
Danny Etling on the practice squad. A lot of people had fun with some his throws — no mention of the chicken crap he was playing with — and I would agree his play declined over the summer. But this is a guy who needed a lot of work with his mechanics, and he showed up for camp having tightened up a bunch of stuff. That tells me he takes coaching very well, and that’s important. He’s not a lost cause. He just needs a lot of work. Now, he’ll get it.
Running backs
Jeremy Hill is very much an upgrade over
Mike Gillislee, whose vision was exposed in his time with the Patriots. Hill’s a much more patient back as he sets up blocks and allows them to develop. Gillislee was more of a car crash.
When he’s on the field,
Rex Burkhead is still the best overall back on the team. How long have we been saying that for? Would be nice if he stayed on the field.
James White may be the best pass-catching back in the league. He’s slowly improved as a runner.
Sony Michel … he’s all hype and on rep, at least as of this moment. There hasn’t been one instance in his time with the Patriots that has screamed, “
Now that’s a first-round running back.” To this point, he looks like a colossal failure by the scouting and medical departments. Maybe this oil change with his knee will him get back to what he put on film in college — which was impressive. He hasn’t come close to showing that with the Patriots.
X receiver
The Patriots don’t have one.
Phillip Dorsett is really a Z, and
Amara Darboh, claimed from the Seahawks, has talent but he earned the reputation — among coaches and players — of being soft in Seattle. But Dorsett is going to be the other “starting” receiver opposite
Chris Hogan by default. It boggles my mind how the Patriots can’t find a tall and lanky receiver to play on the boundary. I’m still waiting for
Dez Bryant to get a call. I believe he could add something to this offense.
Slot receiver
Hogan can do it, but he doesn’t really have the shake required to make this position work. So that means the Patriots don’t really have their ideal starters at the two spots until
Julian Edelmanreturns.
As for Edelman … he made progress during the summer, which is what you’re looking for. The million-dollar question: Will he be, at 32, the same guy, pre-surgery/suspension? I don’t see how he can. But Edelman’s smarts and his ability to work well with Brady will make up for a lot. One thing to keep in mind: Edelman had 14 drops in 2016, which was the same number
Brandin Cooks and Gronkowski dropped
combined last season. When your legs start to go as an aging receiver, your hand-eye coordination struggles. (Just ask
Eric Decker.) He could have been on the decline last year, and we wouldn’t know it yet.
The only explanation I have for
Riley McCarron still being here as a practice squadder is that he’s insurance (because he knows the system and is plug and play) during Edelman’s suspension. McCarron wasn’t good enough for the same system in Houston. He was on the Patriots’ practice squad all last year, here all offseason and in the preseason, the Patriots have no receivers and … McCarron still couldn’t make the team. He’s the definition of a JAG — just another guy — but he happens to know the playbook.
As soon as the team is more comfortable with
Jace Billingsley (former Lion), I expect McCarron to be on another team.
Z receiver
Cordarrelle Patterson would normally be a No. 4 with some gadget potential, but this is where the Patriots are right now. For you scoring at home, we’re now 3-for-3 with receiver spots not having the best candidate playing there. There could be a case made — and perhaps they’ll show it in the opener — to put
James White at slot receiver, which would allow Hogan (X), Dorsett (Z) and Patterson (gadget) to play their best spots against the Texans. As it stands right now, the Patriots are weakening all three spots by shuffling receivers around.
Patterson has shown more receiving ability so far with the Patriots, but there is a lingering question about how he’ll function in the offense with Brady when the real bullets are flying. It looked like he struggled on a handful of routes in the preseason. Brady won’t want to deal with that if it’s not cleaned up.
Tight ends
If you’re a defensive coordinator worth a spit playing the Patriots until Edelman proves he’s healthy, how aren’t you throwing multiple bodies at
Rob Gronkowski? I don’t care where he lines up, I would double Gronkowski and make Brady beat you with everyone else. Remember that scene in “Bill Belichick: A Football Life” where the coach says, “If you just take Moss away in the middle of the field and get down on Welker … we’re done”?
Well, this offense — at least the passing part — has that feel with Gronkowski in the Moss role and Edelman as Welker when No. 11 returns. Now, the Patriots should have a better running game than the 2009 offense, but the point remains.
Dwayne Allen hasn’t shown he can do anything consistently except block.
Jacob Hollister has potential to be a very viable secondary target, but he’s another player who has durability questions.
James Develin is a good, solid fullback.
Offensive tackle
Trent Brown has the potential to be the team’s best left tackle since
Nate Solder in 2013 (his best season) and could exceed that level. He’s that good, or at least that’s what he’s shown. But there are durability and conditioning issues with Brown. Will he be able to function at a high level, at his size, if the Patriots are running 80-plus plays every week? There may very well be a rotation among all three tackles for the first month to keep Brown and
Marcus Cannon as fresh as possible.
Cannon, when healthy, is among the best right tackles in the league — but that’s really only happened once.
LaAdrian Waddle has vastly improved over the past year — he’s in terrific shape and has cleaned up his technique. Could be one of the better third tackles in the league.
Guard/center
This group has a chance to be one of the best in the league last season. Approached that status last year and didn’t see much letup this summer. … I’m sorry, but LG
Joe Thuney is a good player — I don’t care what anyone else thinks. He gave up less pressure than Solder and
Shaq Masonlast year. But he does need to improve his run blocking. …
David Andrews is highly underrated as one of the better centers in the league. … Mason had a little leakage early on in camp and still has some things to clean up. I certainly don’t have any worries about him getting fat and happy with the new contract. Mason showed much growth going from a run-only college offense to the multi-faceted Patriots attack. But this is where the hard work begins. Going from being a very good linemen to elite player is all about refining techniques and building that database of reactions to what you see in a game. Can he take that final step? Patriots think so based on his contract. …
Ted Karras is a rock-solid backup at all three spots. And he’s all they have right now.