freeze
Supporter
- Jan 5, 2011
- 68,009
- 79,198
Goat points lol
The Official NBA Season Thread: Happy Thanksgiving 🦃
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by pmatic,
- Start date
- Apr 5, 2012
- 4,052
- 4,980
I truly hate Steve Kerrs rotations and his decision making for minutes.
All other aspects of coaching like getting a team to buy in etc are great.
He really can’t see what’s in front of his face. How anyone plays Lindy that much is beyond me.
All other aspects of coaching like getting a team to buy in etc are great.
He really can’t see what’s in front of his face. How anyone plays Lindy that much is beyond me.
- Jul 29, 2001
- 20,801
- 10,903
Don't shoot the messenger, bro lol
lawdog1
Supporter
- Sep 14, 2000
- 60,255
- 72,852
Thanks for sharing. I applaud your bravery.I will preface this by saying that I understand if Meth deletes this post.
Anyway: I ordered John Hollinger's new book in both physical and audio formats. My physical copy is being delivered on Friday, so I did pay for the book. I also had some Audible credits and got the audio version, which I did not know included just a basic list of the Top 100 ranking. I do not know the difference between the GOAT ranking system vs. the Overall ranking. That formula and process will be revealed in the book, and I look forward to reading it, and hope people on here will buy as well. Looking at the chapters, it starts at 100, and goes to 1. There's no "history of the NBA" stuff that Bill Simmons did in his book. It's a 752 page book, so strap in.
Again, if I stepped over the line, this post will be deleted, but this is just a basic list with no context.
- Jul 29, 2001
- 20,801
- 10,903
He recently liked one of my posts for, like, the first time ever. It was bound to even out eventually.
freeze
Supporter
- Jan 5, 2011
- 68,009
- 79,198
Kev is ALA gang
- Feb 23, 2013
- 13,973
- 25,334
moe200069
Supporter
- May 15, 2005
- 24,877
- 44,306
Oakland
i hope the DPOY award doesn't just go to a big who defends the paint. i think we're all tired of that being the default criteria. rather it go to a defender who can lock down at the point of attack
HIM
Supporter
- May 10, 2006
- 27,513
- 64,901
Oakland
i hope the DPOY award doesn't just go to a big who defends the paint. i think we're all tired of that being the default criteria. rather it go to a defender who can lock down at the point of attack
Marcus smart won it a couple years ago and people were mad as hell
I agree though, Perimeter protection > Rim protection
- Jul 8, 2013
- 12,072
- 13,596
All Wemby has to do is play 70% of games. Draymond also might deserve it this year.Oakland
i hope the DPOY award doesn't just go to a big who defends the paint. i think we're all tired of that being the default criteria. rather it go to a defender who can lock down at the point of attack
Amen should be the top guard.
- Oct 28, 2013
- 42,790
- 178,688
freeze
Supporter
- Jan 5, 2011
- 68,009
- 79,198
- Nov 7, 2019
- 7,575
- 23,807
The Aussicity
- Nov 11, 2007
- 17,692
- 24,152
Minny had one of their two best seasons in franchise history last year, decided it was unacceptable, and they had to shake up the roster and go back to mediocrity.
nick.
Supporter
- Dec 27, 2012
- 73,620
- 100,779
How much longer will we ignore Dallas winning 5 of 6 without a heliocentric offense?
- Mar 16, 2010
- 147,820
- 181,342
HOU$TON
formerly convertibleburt
- Apr 14, 2016
- 13,531
- 26,437
Harden at 13. This might be the most accurate list I’ve ever seen.I will preface this by saying that I understand if Meth deletes this post.
Anyway: I ordered John Hollinger's new book in both physical and audio formats. My physical copy is being delivered on Friday, so I did pay for the book. I also had some Audible credits and got the audio version, which I did not know included just a basic list of the Top 100 ranking. I do not know the difference between the GOAT ranking system vs. the Overall ranking. That formula and process will be revealed in the book, and I look forward to reading it, and hope people on here will buy as well. Looking at the chapters, it starts at 100, and goes to 1. There's no "history of the NBA" stuff that Bill Simmons did in his book. It's a 752 page book, so strap in.
Again, if I stepped over the line, this post will be deleted, but this is just a basic list with no context.
elpablo21
Supporter
- Feb 11, 2008
- 106,590
- 196,375
All that Mavs ball movement got them cooking out here lately
Too bad it will have to end at some point
- Sep 5, 2010
- 93,330
- 130,111
Hollinger posted it on The Athletic this week.I will preface this by saying that I understand if Meth deletes this post.
Anyway: I ordered John Hollinger's new book in both physical and audio formats. My physical copy is being delivered on Friday, so I did pay for the book. I also had some Audible credits and got the audio version, which I did not know included just a basic list of the Top 100 ranking. I do not know the difference between the GOAT ranking system vs. the Overall ranking. That formula and process will be revealed in the book, and I look forward to reading it, and hope people on here will buy as well. Looking at the chapters, it starts at 100, and goes to 1. There's no "history of the NBA" stuff that Bill Simmons did in his book. It's a 752 page book, so strap in.
Again, if I stepped over the line, this post will be deleted, but this is just a basic list with no context.
MVP vote shares: 50 points for each 1.0
Basketball-reference.com has a system for determining a player’s share of the MVP vote, which is a more precise metric than a binary first-second-third and even allows us to distinguish among near-unanimous awards from more contested votes.
For example, Bill Walton had 0.117 MVP vote shares in 1977 (when he finished second) and 0.403 MVP vote shares in 1978 (when he won). He goes in the books with 0.52 career vote shares. The all-time leader here through 2022–23 is LeBron James, with 8.8.
One note here: There are eight players (Julius Erving, Rick Barry, Billy Cunningham, Spencer Haywood, Artis Gilmore, Connie Hawkins, George McGinnis, and Mel Daniels) who factor at least somewhat into the top-100 discussion and received significant ABA MVP vote shares; I took these at one-third of their value. This feels like a fair adjustment: first, because the ABA had half as many teams as the NBA for nearly the entirety of its existence and, second, while it was close to the NBA in quality, I don’t think anyone thought it achieved full parity.
Additionally, I had to go back in time and give an estimated 3.5 MVP vote shares to George Mikan; the league didn’t give out the award until 1955–56, when Mikan’s prime years had passed. If you’re scoring at home, I also gave 1.0 to Joe Fulks and 0.5 to Paul Arizin.
Finals MVP: 10 points
Note that for those who played before the advent of the award in 1969, I had to “award” a Finals MVP based on who likely would have won it that year. I handed out seven to Bill Russell, four to George Mikan, one more to Wilt Chamberlain, and one each to Bob Pettit, Bob Cousy, Paul Arizin, Bob Davies, Sam Jones, and Dolph Schayes. Hopefully you agree with my voting.
All-Star team: 1 point
In the context of comparing all-time greats, making the All-Star team is just not that big a deal; it’s the floor, not the ceiling.
Every player in the GOAT points top 100 was named to at least five All-Star teams except the players from before the ’50s, who didn’t have an All-Star Game to play in. (I “selected” those players for the years they were first-team all-league and didn’t have a game to play in.)
I did not acknowledge making an ABA All-Star team; in conferences with five and six teams, respectively, the bar was just too low.
Career win shares above 100: 1 point
To balance some of the emphasis on peak value versus career value, and to reward more general team accomplishment and durability, I added a bonus for players who achieved at least 100 career win shares on basketball-reference.com. This is a fairly simplistic measurement, yes, but it has the advantage of being available back to the beginning of the NBA.
Conveniently, 96 players in NBA history had at least 100 career win shares through 2022–23, and received extra points this way. Most got scraps, however; only 24 players in league annals have cleared 150 win shares. Setting a bar at 100 strikes a balance between rewarding quality longevity without overly rewarding “hanging around” years or overly punishing players with brief peaks.
Note that I did not count ABA win shares here; there are some totals from the early years of that league especially that are just batty; suffice to say it produced results that I do not think I could defend.
Career BPM above 2.0: 7.5 points per point
Finally, we have a contribution from the advanced stats, somewhat. Basketball-reference.com only has BPM dating to 1974, and uses some tricks to fill in gaps for everything prior to 1985, so it’s definitely more valuable for modern players than for old-timers. I included it here to help weigh the modern players in particular; I think it’s hard for us to answer the question “How great is Paul George?” while his career is going on, and this helps provide a historical guidepost.
The limitation here is that I had to make crude estimates for pre-1974 players, generally giving them the benefit of the doubt and rating them comparable to historical peers from later eras. Because of this, I had to make BPM’s contribution relatively minor; doubling my estimate for Elgin Baylor, for instance, would only move him up three spots in the GOAT point standings.
So what do GOAT points give us? Still a lot of questions about comparing eras and roles, of course. What do we do with Mikan, for example? GOAT points tells us something we already know — he dominated the early 1950s — but tells us nothing about the relative strength of the league then versus in 1972, let alone 1992 or 2022.
For that matter, GOAT points doesn’t really know what to do with Dennis Rodman, either, or how to handle cases of extreme longevity (Karl Malone, John Stockton), or what to do about Michael Jordan skipping two years of his prime and then retiring at 35.* It can’t tell you whether Walt Frazier was better than Isiah Thomas, or if Clyde Drexler was better than Dwyane Wade, or if 1.75 God-level seasons from Bill Walton is better than 15 years of Robert Parish being the third-best center in the East.
* (Those Wizards years didn’t happen.)
What it can do, at least, is set the stage for the discussion. Maybe I weighted some stuff too highly and other things not highly enough; surely there are ways this can be improved in the coming years, especially if we get better historical advanced stats.
That said, it also brings some important debate questions to light, particularly regarding a few players who were excluded from this list or, perhaps, vaulted too prominently in it.
Basketball-reference.com has a system for determining a player’s share of the MVP vote, which is a more precise metric than a binary first-second-third and even allows us to distinguish among near-unanimous awards from more contested votes.
For example, Bill Walton had 0.117 MVP vote shares in 1977 (when he finished second) and 0.403 MVP vote shares in 1978 (when he won). He goes in the books with 0.52 career vote shares. The all-time leader here through 2022–23 is LeBron James, with 8.8.
One note here: There are eight players (Julius Erving, Rick Barry, Billy Cunningham, Spencer Haywood, Artis Gilmore, Connie Hawkins, George McGinnis, and Mel Daniels) who factor at least somewhat into the top-100 discussion and received significant ABA MVP vote shares; I took these at one-third of their value. This feels like a fair adjustment: first, because the ABA had half as many teams as the NBA for nearly the entirety of its existence and, second, while it was close to the NBA in quality, I don’t think anyone thought it achieved full parity.
Additionally, I had to go back in time and give an estimated 3.5 MVP vote shares to George Mikan; the league didn’t give out the award until 1955–56, when Mikan’s prime years had passed. If you’re scoring at home, I also gave 1.0 to Joe Fulks and 0.5 to Paul Arizin.
- First Team All-NBA: 10 points each
- Second Team All-NBA: 3 points each
- Third Team All-NBA: 1 point each
- First Team All-ABA: 5 points each
Finals MVP: 10 points
Note that for those who played before the advent of the award in 1969, I had to “award” a Finals MVP based on who likely would have won it that year. I handed out seven to Bill Russell, four to George Mikan, one more to Wilt Chamberlain, and one each to Bob Pettit, Bob Cousy, Paul Arizin, Bob Davies, Sam Jones, and Dolph Schayes. Hopefully you agree with my voting.
All-Star team: 1 point
In the context of comparing all-time greats, making the All-Star team is just not that big a deal; it’s the floor, not the ceiling.
Every player in the GOAT points top 100 was named to at least five All-Star teams except the players from before the ’50s, who didn’t have an All-Star Game to play in. (I “selected” those players for the years they were first-team all-league and didn’t have a game to play in.)
I did not acknowledge making an ABA All-Star team; in conferences with five and six teams, respectively, the bar was just too low.
Career win shares above 100: 1 point
To balance some of the emphasis on peak value versus career value, and to reward more general team accomplishment and durability, I added a bonus for players who achieved at least 100 career win shares on basketball-reference.com. This is a fairly simplistic measurement, yes, but it has the advantage of being available back to the beginning of the NBA.
Conveniently, 96 players in NBA history had at least 100 career win shares through 2022–23, and received extra points this way. Most got scraps, however; only 24 players in league annals have cleared 150 win shares. Setting a bar at 100 strikes a balance between rewarding quality longevity without overly rewarding “hanging around” years or overly punishing players with brief peaks.
Note that I did not count ABA win shares here; there are some totals from the early years of that league especially that are just batty; suffice to say it produced results that I do not think I could defend.
Career BPM above 2.0: 7.5 points per point
Finally, we have a contribution from the advanced stats, somewhat. Basketball-reference.com only has BPM dating to 1974, and uses some tricks to fill in gaps for everything prior to 1985, so it’s definitely more valuable for modern players than for old-timers. I included it here to help weigh the modern players in particular; I think it’s hard for us to answer the question “How great is Paul George?” while his career is going on, and this helps provide a historical guidepost.
The limitation here is that I had to make crude estimates for pre-1974 players, generally giving them the benefit of the doubt and rating them comparable to historical peers from later eras. Because of this, I had to make BPM’s contribution relatively minor; doubling my estimate for Elgin Baylor, for instance, would only move him up three spots in the GOAT point standings.
So what do GOAT points give us? Still a lot of questions about comparing eras and roles, of course. What do we do with Mikan, for example? GOAT points tells us something we already know — he dominated the early 1950s — but tells us nothing about the relative strength of the league then versus in 1972, let alone 1992 or 2022.
For that matter, GOAT points doesn’t really know what to do with Dennis Rodman, either, or how to handle cases of extreme longevity (Karl Malone, John Stockton), or what to do about Michael Jordan skipping two years of his prime and then retiring at 35.* It can’t tell you whether Walt Frazier was better than Isiah Thomas, or if Clyde Drexler was better than Dwyane Wade, or if 1.75 God-level seasons from Bill Walton is better than 15 years of Robert Parish being the third-best center in the East.
* (Those Wizards years didn’t happen.)
What it can do, at least, is set the stage for the discussion. Maybe I weighted some stuff too highly and other things not highly enough; surely there are ways this can be improved in the coming years, especially if we get better historical advanced stats.
That said, it also brings some important debate questions to light, particularly regarding a few players who were excluded from this list or, perhaps, vaulted too prominently in it.
- Oct 13, 2001
- 161,163
- 143,173
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