Let's chat some 238, lads. Just caught up on the "Embedded" series. I've got Moraes finishing Cejudo in R2. Dismantling him with a knee or kick(s) in a similar fashion to "Mighty Mouse." I haven't seen Moraes 'legitimately' lose since 2011 in AC, so I'm hesitant to bet against him with Cejudo coming up in weight. FWIW, I would have picked Marlon against Dillashaw too. I'm pretty sure the line has been moving in Marlon's favor, so lock in before it hits -160 to -170.
I'm seeing some tasty odds in the women's fights. Jessica Eye is like +1,050 on 5D. That's crazy to me. Once thought she would be the woman to dethrone Ronda at 135. I get Eye hasn't looked overly impressive vs. JRC or Chookagian, the latter being a bout she narrowly won, but her boxing is nice. She works in body kicks well too. Plus her clinch game is active as hell, with knees, elbows, etc. I don't feel like Valentina has much power, more a volume, accumulation striker. So if Eye is willing to walk through Shevchenko's shots and absorb some damage/punishment, she could eek out a decision on the cards.
The other bout I'm tempted by is Nina Ansaroff. I saw her as high as +550 to +600 at one point. Of course she's got Nunes coaching her up in the corner. Girl been a different fighter lately, ripping off four Ws consecutively. Hill victory was impressive and "Claudinha" even more so, unexpected result. Tatiana is undefeated but less experienced. Not discounting her wins over ABC, Grasso or Carla. Just saying that seeing Suarez drop a decision to Ansaroff would not surprise me in the slightest.
Have no idea who wins "El Cucuy" vs. "Cowboy." Probably gonna be FOTN either way. The wild card is truly Ferguson's mental state. I know he wants to forget about it, but we can't omit the impact it might have on tonight's fight. I read the reports and tend to believe his wife as credible. Those repeated incidents are scary, man. If Tony is right, Cerrone probably catches him and hurts him early but Ferguson finds a way to dig deep and reverse the bout in his favor. Till was the last guy to KO "Cowboy," and I think "El Cucuy" can make it happen as the fight goes deeper.
"Aljo" my guy but I'm having a strange feeling about Munhoz similar to the lead-up in his fight against Cody. I warned y'all that something silly or careless on Garbrandt's part was coming days before. Sterling never been submitted before, as he's an excellent grappler, so don't see Munhoz finishing it that way. More likely a flash KO or decision. The latter being most probably for the Paulista.
Dropping a tidbit on another women's fight. Feel like I'm being baited by the +100 for KK on 5D. Karolina has lost two in a row so it kinda makes sense. But her four losses are to "Karate Hottie," Andrade, "Claudinha" and Joanna. Stiff competition. I feel good about Kowalkiewicz securing a decision over Alexa Grasso. In the "Embedded," "Cowboy" deadass thought Grasso was a random fan asking for a photo.
Not going to touch this bout but "Bully" at +125 to +130 looked juicy. Was concerned Lamas was finished after consecutive Ls to Bektic and Emmett. Finishing Elkins in BA was a nice way to announce that wasn't the case. Calvin Kattar has solid striking but he's at a significant grappling disadvantage. "Bully" will find a way to submit Kattar with a guillotine choke in the second or third round.