- Sep 1, 2004
- 25,508
- 667
it has nothing to do with syracuse tho
its all about $$$ and been able to market the ACC brand on a bigger stage.
The College Basketball Post
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by allen3xis,
- Start date
its all about $$$ and been able to market the ACC brand on a bigger stage.
antidope
Supporter
- Jan 2, 2012
- 63,514
- 68,037
- Nov 14, 2007
- 8,956
- 39
- Dec 14, 2001
- 12,426
- 2,239
I finished my brackets tonight. I heard all the cases for every upset but this year with who knows what will happen. I just went through and pick with my gut. Not with the statistical analysis that gets beat to death. All that matters is you pick the right winner and final four teams. The 5vs12 upsets have a small impact on the overall bracket. I'm sure we will all throw out out brackets by Sunday morning anyway 
- Aug 24, 2005
- 3,231
- 123
What were your guys toughest picks this year? Mine had to be Cuse/UNLV and VCU/UMich
- Aug 2, 2006
- 34,141
- 29,481
Best value spots in the brackets
March, 20, 2013
Mar 20
3:04
PM ET
Recommend0
Tweet1
Comments3
Email
Print
Talib ZannaTony Spinelli/ESPNHandicappers can't believe Pittsburgh is a No. 8 seed and think there's value on the Panthers.
'Twas Sunday, 11:59 p.m. Eastern Standard Time, a few hours after the lines for the NCAA tournament had opened, and all through the night, most wiseguys were not stirring. Outside Chicago, Sal Selvaggio from Madduxsports.com saw the spreads flickering across his screen, with numbers holding still and not scurrying this way or that. With four days until the games began and no gifts from the oddsmakers, he said this to himself: "I could rush to make some bets I may not love, or I can read my daughter a bedtime story." He chose the story.
Across the country, in a new-construction house in a fancy subdivision not even 20 minutes away from the glitz and glam of the Las Vegas Strip, Alan Boston was sitting tight, too. There were no numbers he loved. The selection committee had, in his mind, given the business to all the teams that didn't deserve it and made sure TV got ratings-ready potential matchups like UNC versus Kansas in the second round. (He wasn't the only one going Oliver Stone on the committee. One prominent UNC grad I know told me on Monday, "They always do that, need to find a way to get [UNC coach] Roy [Williams] to play Kansas on TV in the NCAA tournament.") So Boston decided to wait until Wednesday became Thursday, or Thursday became Friday, for the public to get involved and the prices for the underdogs to become cheaper, before he waded into the pool.
Also in Las Vegas, Todd Fuhrman, former Caesars bookmaker and current analyst for Don Best Sports, sat and wondered: "Where is all the action?" On Tuesday afternoon the only sharp play he could confirm from the first 36 hours of action was on Wisconsin, moving from minus-4.5 to minus-5 or minus-6 over Mississippi. "And even then I'm not sure if they are just setting it up to buy back Mississippi on the day of the game."
What is the Sweat Barometer?
The Sweat Barometer measures how well college basketball teams do against the spread -- and how much they will make you sweat when you bet them. We'll know this by tracking the margin by which they cover -- or don't. For example, in its first 23 lined games this season, Virginia covered by an average of 4.39 points. That's good.
The against-the-spread margin is based on the closing lines for each team's games.
The Sweat Barometer will run during the college hoops season and will list each team's ATS record (overall/home/away), its RPI and its sweat margin.
And so it goes, as we tick-tock to the opening tip of March Madness. Unlike the Super Bowl, this week's only real rival for the nation's sports betting attention, it is not standardly available action that is at the center of our yearly distraction. Prop bets are offered, but they don't dominate. (Although I've been in Southern California since Monday and, on Tuesday night, stopped by Jimmy Kimmel to visit a friend. I saw Cousin Sal, and he was giving very serious thought to a "total value of the seeds to make the Final Four" prop. The number was 10.5, and he was leaning toward the under.)
Meanwhile, point spreads take a backseat to the brackets, which generally turn every office in the country into a William Hill bet shop for three weeks. Except at ESPN The Magazine. Just to be clear so this is on the record: There will definitely not be a pool. We definitely do not have that one guy whose name might or might not be Jon who runs one every year and collects units from people. It just doesn't happen. Definitely not.
Of course, it's silly that the public gets too lost in general bracket-busting mania to see the value in the numbers. But that's not you, degenerate friends. You like to know whether there's a half-point of value in the Akron-VCU game. You want to know when is the right time to buy Mississippi-Wisconsin. You don't see one $5 buy-in for the right to sweat over the next three weeks as a worthwhile investment. Game-by-game is your thing. And, the good news is, it's not too late to play, especially if you like underdogs.
"The past few years there is more money coming in on favorites from the public the closer it gets to the game," says Boston. "So I just wait."
Adds Selvaggio: "To me, this is no different than a Saturday during the season, the money still pays the same. You don't get any more for picking winners than some random game in November."
Below, I've cobbled together a sampling of highlights from Fuhrman, Boston and Selvaggio. Also, below the comments, I've put the 1-thru-68 Sweat Barometer rankings. (In case you don't read the column every week, the Sweat Barometer is a proprietary measurement of how much a team does or does not beat its closing number by, on average. I work that up with Selvaggio during the college hoops season.)
Akron versus Virginia Commonwealth
Opened: VCU minus-6.5; currently VCU minus-7.5 (and climbing)
Fuhrman says: "A lot has been made about Akron not having its point guard, especially against the VCU pressure. But this jump in the number more than compensates for his loss. It should have been VCU minus-2.5 or three, tops, with Akron at 100 percent. Seven is a big jump, plus everyone is talking about it. That one point adds a little value on Akron."
Boston says: "I would have had it four before the point guard got hurt. Akron played a great game against Ohio without their point guard. The Akron coach is resilient and smart and these teams have played each other a few times over the years. I think it's a little too high, but I am not in any rush to bet Akron because I do think Akron will have a hard time getting into its offense. My number is lower with an asterisk and the number is going up, so there is no reason to bet it. Yet."
Wichita State versus Pittsburgh
Opened: Pitt minus-4, currently minus-4.5 or 5
Boston says: "It's criminal they [Pitt] are a No. 8 seed. The seeding is absurd, so what can you take from that? They went to Georgetown and won by 20 and beat Syracuse at home by about 20. They have had some bad results, but it is a good program and good coach with a high power rating. They were favored over Syracuse in the Big East tourney by two points. Even though they lost to Marquette they were favored twice, including at home. Pitt has played to a very high level for many games this year."
Fuhrman says: "Pittsburgh is the most interesting team in the entire field. They won't be more than three-point dogs against anyone, which is unusual as a No. 8 seed."
Selvaggio says: "Really, I just can't believe they made Pittsburgh an 8. Really."
Mississippi versus Wisconsin
Opened: Wisconsin minus-4.5, currently minus-6
Boston says: "I am not a big Wisconsin fan; they are not that talented. They don't give anything away, which is good, and they get all they can during the year, but they don't have another gear to go to during the tournament. They never turn it over, don't take bad shots, and defend well. I don't think they can play any better than they have lately. Ole Miss started off like a house on fire and then had a lull. They had that comeback against Mizzou and then Vandy and then against Florida, which has to buoy their spirits and confidence. Talentwise, I think they have more. I will bet this for sure, but it's going up so I will wait."
Selvaggio says: "Wisconsin minus-5 initially looked the best bet, to me."
Pacific versus Miami
Opened: Miami minus-12.5, currently Miami minus-12
Fuhrman says: "It's hard to say if Miami is overvalued or undervalued given how high they are seeded. I think they were undervalued going into the ACC tourney and now might be overvalued. The fact they are getting so much attention coming out of the East region, ahead of Indiana according to some people, is mind-boggling."
Boston says: "I have a ticket on them at 150-1 to win it all. They have a very good draw; after Pacific it's Illinois or Colorado, neither of whom should be in the tourney. And then third round -- ditto -- there's a pretty good opportunity. Of the four teams they might play, only Butler could beat them, and it would be hard."
Davidson versus Marquette
Opened: Marquette at minus-3, now minus-3.5/minus-4
Boston says: "I think Marquette is going to struggle to beat Davidson. I think Davidson is a better team; they are better coached. These players went through it last year and were good enough to hang in with Louisville, and now they are all back and a year older. The number on the screen is Marquette minus-3 and 3.5 it seems to going back and forth. I think Davidson would be a one-point favorite. I have been high on Davidson and anti-Marquette all year."
Iona versus Ohio State
Opened: Ohio State minus-13, currently minus-13.5
Boston says: "They [Ohio State] struggle to score at times -- their offense seems to lack a little bit of rhythm. I have no inherent bias, and the coach is great and they have great players. I think they are overpriced in the first game and it may go up because they had a strong finish to the year. Wisconsin was ripe to be beaten in that last game. When they lost to Kansas I got turned off, and they lost a game against Indiana I thought they should have won. Key results: When they should have won and didn't."
Fuhrman says: "They have had such a good streak the past seven games and, in their bracket, potentially play three teams that don't defend exceptionally well. This team struggled for good stretches during the season and now you will have to pay a premium for them."
Selvaggio says: "The problem with Ohio State is that teams that historically win conference tourneys are not good bets."
March, 20, 2013
Mar 20
3:04
PM ET
Recommend0
Tweet1
Comments3
Talib ZannaTony Spinelli/ESPNHandicappers can't believe Pittsburgh is a No. 8 seed and think there's value on the Panthers.
'Twas Sunday, 11:59 p.m. Eastern Standard Time, a few hours after the lines for the NCAA tournament had opened, and all through the night, most wiseguys were not stirring. Outside Chicago, Sal Selvaggio from Madduxsports.com saw the spreads flickering across his screen, with numbers holding still and not scurrying this way or that. With four days until the games began and no gifts from the oddsmakers, he said this to himself: "I could rush to make some bets I may not love, or I can read my daughter a bedtime story." He chose the story.
Across the country, in a new-construction house in a fancy subdivision not even 20 minutes away from the glitz and glam of the Las Vegas Strip, Alan Boston was sitting tight, too. There were no numbers he loved. The selection committee had, in his mind, given the business to all the teams that didn't deserve it and made sure TV got ratings-ready potential matchups like UNC versus Kansas in the second round. (He wasn't the only one going Oliver Stone on the committee. One prominent UNC grad I know told me on Monday, "They always do that, need to find a way to get [UNC coach] Roy [Williams] to play Kansas on TV in the NCAA tournament.") So Boston decided to wait until Wednesday became Thursday, or Thursday became Friday, for the public to get involved and the prices for the underdogs to become cheaper, before he waded into the pool.
Also in Las Vegas, Todd Fuhrman, former Caesars bookmaker and current analyst for Don Best Sports, sat and wondered: "Where is all the action?" On Tuesday afternoon the only sharp play he could confirm from the first 36 hours of action was on Wisconsin, moving from minus-4.5 to minus-5 or minus-6 over Mississippi. "And even then I'm not sure if they are just setting it up to buy back Mississippi on the day of the game."
What is the Sweat Barometer?
The Sweat Barometer measures how well college basketball teams do against the spread -- and how much they will make you sweat when you bet them. We'll know this by tracking the margin by which they cover -- or don't. For example, in its first 23 lined games this season, Virginia covered by an average of 4.39 points. That's good.
The against-the-spread margin is based on the closing lines for each team's games.
The Sweat Barometer will run during the college hoops season and will list each team's ATS record (overall/home/away), its RPI and its sweat margin.
And so it goes, as we tick-tock to the opening tip of March Madness. Unlike the Super Bowl, this week's only real rival for the nation's sports betting attention, it is not standardly available action that is at the center of our yearly distraction. Prop bets are offered, but they don't dominate. (Although I've been in Southern California since Monday and, on Tuesday night, stopped by Jimmy Kimmel to visit a friend. I saw Cousin Sal, and he was giving very serious thought to a "total value of the seeds to make the Final Four" prop. The number was 10.5, and he was leaning toward the under.)
Meanwhile, point spreads take a backseat to the brackets, which generally turn every office in the country into a William Hill bet shop for three weeks. Except at ESPN The Magazine. Just to be clear so this is on the record: There will definitely not be a pool. We definitely do not have that one guy whose name might or might not be Jon who runs one every year and collects units from people. It just doesn't happen. Definitely not.
Of course, it's silly that the public gets too lost in general bracket-busting mania to see the value in the numbers. But that's not you, degenerate friends. You like to know whether there's a half-point of value in the Akron-VCU game. You want to know when is the right time to buy Mississippi-Wisconsin. You don't see one $5 buy-in for the right to sweat over the next three weeks as a worthwhile investment. Game-by-game is your thing. And, the good news is, it's not too late to play, especially if you like underdogs.
"The past few years there is more money coming in on favorites from the public the closer it gets to the game," says Boston. "So I just wait."
Adds Selvaggio: "To me, this is no different than a Saturday during the season, the money still pays the same. You don't get any more for picking winners than some random game in November."
Below, I've cobbled together a sampling of highlights from Fuhrman, Boston and Selvaggio. Also, below the comments, I've put the 1-thru-68 Sweat Barometer rankings. (In case you don't read the column every week, the Sweat Barometer is a proprietary measurement of how much a team does or does not beat its closing number by, on average. I work that up with Selvaggio during the college hoops season.)
Akron versus Virginia Commonwealth
Opened: VCU minus-6.5; currently VCU minus-7.5 (and climbing)
Fuhrman says: "A lot has been made about Akron not having its point guard, especially against the VCU pressure. But this jump in the number more than compensates for his loss. It should have been VCU minus-2.5 or three, tops, with Akron at 100 percent. Seven is a big jump, plus everyone is talking about it. That one point adds a little value on Akron."
Boston says: "I would have had it four before the point guard got hurt. Akron played a great game against Ohio without their point guard. The Akron coach is resilient and smart and these teams have played each other a few times over the years. I think it's a little too high, but I am not in any rush to bet Akron because I do think Akron will have a hard time getting into its offense. My number is lower with an asterisk and the number is going up, so there is no reason to bet it. Yet."
Wichita State versus Pittsburgh
Opened: Pitt minus-4, currently minus-4.5 or 5
Boston says: "It's criminal they [Pitt] are a No. 8 seed. The seeding is absurd, so what can you take from that? They went to Georgetown and won by 20 and beat Syracuse at home by about 20. They have had some bad results, but it is a good program and good coach with a high power rating. They were favored over Syracuse in the Big East tourney by two points. Even though they lost to Marquette they were favored twice, including at home. Pitt has played to a very high level for many games this year."
Fuhrman says: "Pittsburgh is the most interesting team in the entire field. They won't be more than three-point dogs against anyone, which is unusual as a No. 8 seed."
Selvaggio says: "Really, I just can't believe they made Pittsburgh an 8. Really."
Mississippi versus Wisconsin
Opened: Wisconsin minus-4.5, currently minus-6
Boston says: "I am not a big Wisconsin fan; they are not that talented. They don't give anything away, which is good, and they get all they can during the year, but they don't have another gear to go to during the tournament. They never turn it over, don't take bad shots, and defend well. I don't think they can play any better than they have lately. Ole Miss started off like a house on fire and then had a lull. They had that comeback against Mizzou and then Vandy and then against Florida, which has to buoy their spirits and confidence. Talentwise, I think they have more. I will bet this for sure, but it's going up so I will wait."
Selvaggio says: "Wisconsin minus-5 initially looked the best bet, to me."
Pacific versus Miami
Opened: Miami minus-12.5, currently Miami minus-12
Fuhrman says: "It's hard to say if Miami is overvalued or undervalued given how high they are seeded. I think they were undervalued going into the ACC tourney and now might be overvalued. The fact they are getting so much attention coming out of the East region, ahead of Indiana according to some people, is mind-boggling."
Boston says: "I have a ticket on them at 150-1 to win it all. They have a very good draw; after Pacific it's Illinois or Colorado, neither of whom should be in the tourney. And then third round -- ditto -- there's a pretty good opportunity. Of the four teams they might play, only Butler could beat them, and it would be hard."
Davidson versus Marquette
Opened: Marquette at minus-3, now minus-3.5/minus-4
Boston says: "I think Marquette is going to struggle to beat Davidson. I think Davidson is a better team; they are better coached. These players went through it last year and were good enough to hang in with Louisville, and now they are all back and a year older. The number on the screen is Marquette minus-3 and 3.5 it seems to going back and forth. I think Davidson would be a one-point favorite. I have been high on Davidson and anti-Marquette all year."
Iona versus Ohio State
Opened: Ohio State minus-13, currently minus-13.5
Boston says: "They [Ohio State] struggle to score at times -- their offense seems to lack a little bit of rhythm. I have no inherent bias, and the coach is great and they have great players. I think they are overpriced in the first game and it may go up because they had a strong finish to the year. Wisconsin was ripe to be beaten in that last game. When they lost to Kansas I got turned off, and they lost a game against Indiana I thought they should have won. Key results: When they should have won and didn't."
Fuhrman says: "They have had such a good streak the past seven games and, in their bracket, potentially play three teams that don't defend exceptionally well. This team struggled for good stretches during the season and now you will have to pay a premium for them."
Selvaggio says: "The problem with Ohio State is that teams that historically win conference tourneys are not good bets."
- Mar 2, 2011
- 30,498
- 5,958
IT'S ABOUT THAT TIME 
- Mar 8, 2008
- 6,681
- 1,314
Working til 3 tomorrow. Gonna be impatient as ****
mr marcus
Banned
- May 3, 2010
- 26,572
- 5,415
**** NYC...espn can market that ***** in Greensboro since the ACC will be the "it" conference tourney now ...majority of the conference schools is below the mason Dixon line....and the new big east is with fox so you know espn won't slurp them too hard
mr marcus
Banned
- May 3, 2010
- 26,572
- 5,415
Growing up in Nc I'm used to it being here...**** won't be the same up there 
- Nov 27, 2009
- 28,226
- 3,086
Feeling like Xmas as a kid haha.
Best time of the year...all the games on at once
Hoping for great games man.
Best time of the year...all the games on at once
Hoping for great games man.
- Dec 14, 2001
- 12,426
- 2,239
Also I got really lucky today and tomorrow. The school district I work for picked their paret teacher conferences to be today and tomorrow. Half days of work!
- Nov 8, 2004
- 4,946
- 548
It is upon us my friends. Its............................
[]
[]
- Sep 27, 2007
- 20,619
- 1,615
it's time!!! wooo
- Dec 21, 2012
- 160
- 54
Last chance to enter the free giveaway for the NCAA Tournament I am helping to sponsor, don't miss it!
Easy to beat the "Casts" bracket also , they picked Louisville to win smh
http://www.icysole.com/2013/03/ncaa-march-madness-giveaway.html
Easy to beat the "Casts" bracket also , they picked Louisville to win smh
http://www.icysole.com/2013/03/ncaa-march-madness-giveaway.html
- May 10, 2009
- 31,834
- 18,383
Sucks that I work both days till 4:30 today and tomorrow BUT I drive a car all day so Ill have the games on the radio and the App on deck so I should be good to go! LET THE GAMES BEGIN (BANE VOICE)
- Jan 20, 2006
- 17,900
- 793
Somebody... Anybody... where's the cbs work link?
- Nov 15, 2007
- 7,904
- 2,187
Have to work late tonight 
Boss's leaving around 1:00pm offsite though, so you already snow
All games are streamed on CBS right?
Boss's leaving around 1:00pm offsite though, so you already snow
All games are streamed on CBS right?
- Oct 25, 2012
- 884
- 169
You can view the games on http://www.ncaa.com/march-madness
- Jan 20, 2006
- 17,900
- 793
- Nov 16, 2012
- 3,133
- 507
Worried about Marquette vs Davidson today
stillhungry
Banned
- Sep 27, 2012
- 353
- 37
Marshall Henderson about to get this money
stillhungry
Banned
- Sep 27, 2012
- 353
- 37
seems like everyone is on the Davidson bandwagon, I'm taking Marquette because of it
- May 10, 2009
- 31,834
- 18,383
Let the Madness commence!! Godspeed to everyones brackets!
- Nov 16, 2012
- 3,133
- 507
3rd straight year not filling out a bracket. Actually I lied I threw one together quickly on Bookmaker cause I had a free entry
Figure a few of the regulars in this thread are the same way...filling out a bracket hasnt held much appeal to me since I started really getting into cbb
Figure a few of the regulars in this thread are the same way...filling out a bracket hasnt held much appeal to me since I started really getting into cbb
