When we talk about college basketball, we're very often speaking in terms of entire teams. We say "Gonzaga" has been really good this season, or "Kentucky" is on the bubble. And, of course, we're perfectly right to talk this way. The Zags have been really good, and the Wildcats are indeed on the bubble.
But if we break this mode of speaking down further, we find that no team is a single undifferentiated performance unit. "Georgetown," for example, means something very different on defense (excellent) than on offense (so-so). Instead, teams are more like patchwork quilts, made up of several distinct performance characteristics.
With that in mind, I've picked five of the strongest such characteristics you'll see in the field of 68 teams next week. If your team runs up against a group that's on this list, here is the specific quality that you need to be very worried about. These teams are truly outstanding at what they do best.
Duke's offense with Ryan Kelly
When Kelly missed 13 games with a foot injury, it was well documented that what really suffered was Duke's defense. Fair enough, but it's no contradiction to say: (A) the Blue Devils' defense without Kelly is average; and (B) their offense with Kelly is excellent. Both A and B can be true. Indeed, that's exactly what we've seen from Mike Krzyzewski's team in the three games since Kelly returned.
Discount these numbers if you wish on the grounds that one of those three games was against 4-13 Virginia Tech. Then again, the other two were against Miami and North Carolina, and the game against the Tar Heels was played in Chapel Hill. So when I say that Duke's scored 1.23 points per possession since Kelly's return, that can't all be chalked up to weak competition. With the 6-foot-11 senior in the lineup, the Blue Devils are quite frankly destroying opposing defenses from the field, draining 57 percent of their 2s and 46 percent of their 3s. There have been no offensive rebounds or free throws to speak of -- there's simply been no need. Coach K's offense is starting to acquire some serious "irresistible force" credibility.
Gonzaga's field goal defense
Mark Few's Gonzaga team has been terrific defensively this season.
When you record a perfect 16-0 record in conference play, you're obviously very good on both sides of the ball. So when I praise Gonzaga's defense in particular, I don't want to leave the impression that an offense that rang up 1.21 points per trip against the West Coast Conference is chopped liver.
But even in a season of superlatives, Mark Few's field goal defense is an outlier. In WCC play, opponents shot 41 percent on their 2s and 30 percent on their 3s against the Bulldogs. I'm not convinced the second number is entirely within any defense's control, but certainly a team's foul rate is, and here again the Zags stand out. No West Coast defense put opponents on the line less often than Gonzaga. Kelly Olynyk, Elias Harris and company therefore bear a passing resemblance to the great Connecticut defenses of the Jim Calhoun era, teams that never fouled and never allowed made 2-point shots. Doubt the Zags' league all you want, but this team is most certainly a legitimate No. 1 seed -- thanks, in no small measure, to a punishing foul-free D.
Wisconsin's denial of opponents' 3s
It's well known that the Badgers play at a slow pace, so looking at raw numbers for season totals can be deceiving. But I'm going to break that rule for just a moment, because I think in this instance there's something to be learned.
At this moment, Wisconsin's Big Ten opponents have attempted just 211 3s in 17 games. That's a remarkably low number, even when adjusted for Bo Ryan's deliberate tempo. It means just 24 percent of opponents' shot attempts have been 3s. And it's no coincidence that this plays into the Badgers' strength. With Jared Berggren lurking in the paint, Wisconsin has held conference opponents to 42 percent shooting inside the arc. In a season in which the Badgers have failed to score a point per trip in Big Ten play, Ryan nevertheless has his team positioned for a high NCAA tournament seed thanks to excellent defense. For years, Krzyzewski has enjoyed a well-earned reputation for defenses that chase opponents off the 3-point line. What Ryan has done this season in that direction has certainly put him in that same conversation.
Iowa State's perimeter attack
All season long observers have been quick to point out that a team like Illinois, for example, "lives by the 3 and dies by the 3," and the Illini have certainly done everything possible to live up to that volatile stereotype. Put it this way: When you win at Gonzaga but also lose at home to Northwestern (and achieve both results by double figures), you've earned the "erratic" label most emphatically.
That being said, a funny thing happens when you make all those 3s you're shooting. Suddenly, as a coach, you're really smart. That's more or less what's happened to Fred Hoiberg and Iowa State this season. The Cyclones actually shoot even more 3s than the Illini, and with good reason: those shots are going in. Against Big 12 opponents, 46 percent of ISU's shot attempts were launched from beyond the arc, making this the most perimeter-oriented major conference team in the nation in league play. Tyrus McGee, Chris Babb and Korie Lucious may not be household names, but in conference play they all shot 38 percent or better on their 3s. With the best offense in the Big 12 (one that scored 1.13 points per possession in league action), Iowa State is the classic example of a somewhat unheralded team that I can envision "stunning" a No. 1 seed on any given perimeter-oriented day.
Louisville's total defense
I've had more than one occasion this season to remark on how proficient Virginia Commonwealth is at getting opponents to turn the ball over. I've also noted that when the Rams don't record a takeaway, their defense is pretty poor.
Now look at Louisville. The Cardinals are living proof that on defense you really can have your cake and eat it, too. Rick Pitino's team forced Big East opponents to commit turnovers on 25 percent of their possessions, the highest number recorded by a Louisville defense in years. Russ Smith and Peyton Siva both rank in the top 100 nationally for steal rate, and if anything, the Cardinals' number for opponent turnovers may be deceptively low. The league office gave Pitino's team not one but two games against Notre Dame, the lowest turnover offense in the conference. If there's one thing we know about Louisville, it's that this team can definitely force turnovers.
But what truly sets the Cardinals apart is that even on possessions in which the opponent doesn't give the ball away, this defense holds the other team to just 1.17 points per "effective" (or turnover-less) possession. That number is second only to Georgetown's (1.16) in Big East play. On the conference season as a whole, opponents scored just 0.89 points per trip against this D, in large part because they made just 41 percent of their 2s. In other words, even if an offense successfully navigates its way past Smith and Siva, it still has to negotiate with Gorgui Dieng in the paint. This is quite possibly one of the best defenses we've seen in the college game in recent years, one that very well could be displaying its skills in Atlanta in the not-too-distant future.
...game got me pissed
