- Jun 25, 2008
- 2,714
- 10
UCLA vs ASU tonight should be good.
The College Basketball Post
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by allen3xis,
- Start date
- Jan 13, 2001
- 6,597
- 10
A little piece about Duke bias...pointing out again, how Jay Bilas is losing more credibility week by week.
To think I used to really respect him, he's getting to be like all therest of these guys in the media.
[h2]A Duke Elbow, An ESPN Bias[/h2]
ESPN can muster the courage to hammer John Beilein and Manny Harris for an inadvertent elbow to Chris Kramer's nose, which it deemed worthy of an all-out blitz against Michigan led by Jay Bilas and followed by Pat Forde. But last night, a Kyle Singler elbow to Tyler Hansbrough's face barely merited a discussion during the telecast or in the studio by Rece Davis, Hubert Davis or Jay Bilas. And, of course, no candor from Duke.
It's hard not to have watched last night's Carolina-Duke game and not come away reaffirmed in the belief of ESPN's inherent conflict of interest. It's even harder to argue that ESPN is an objective bastion of journalism, particularly when it comes to Duke. From its tentacle reach into every aspect of major college sport, it's clear ESPN is a commercial empire first and foremost, and its college basketball icon is Coach K. Hold Duke accountable, let alone view them through an objective lens, and ESPN plays against its commercial self-interest.
From North Carolina's News & Observer:
One problem with that, um, explanation: The ball wasn't in Hansbrough's hands; it was in Singler's.
Here's the post-game commentary from the ESPN studio:
That's it. During the game, +!$# Vitale causally called it a "no-no" and Mike Patrick even suggested that Duke could argue that Singler's hand slipped off the ball.
Perfunctory.
In a world where loads of injustice exists, ESPN's failure to hammer Duke as it did Michigan doesn't constitute a tragedy. But a Duke bias is a reality, from ESPN to game officials, and it's one that creates an uneven playing field. Last week, DeQaun Jones was ejected for his forearm shiver to Greg Paulus last week, which was replayed on the Cameron Scoreboard to the incitement of the Duke fans. Earlier this season, Jack McClinton was ejected for swatting Ohio State's Anthony Crater. Devan Dumes was ejected and suspended indefinitely by Tom Crean for attempting to elbow Tom Herzog.
Gerald Henderson's elbow to Hansbrough's nose two seasons ago elicited from Coach K a perfunctory Gerald's not that kind of player and Duke's not that kind of team. These four incidents, and there are surely more, including Zack Novak's elbow to PJ Hill's neck, were all intentional. But where Duke is the culprit, no contrition.
It's hard to determine what was in Singler's mind. It did earn a technical foul. What merits an ejection? What would have happened if Singler really connected, intentional or not? It seems clear enough that Singler wasn't being honest when he claimed he was just trying to "pop the ball out" since he had it. It's also clear that he could have hurt Hansbrough. And finally, it's clear that again, there was no contrition from the Duke bench or much real concern from Bilas or ESPN.
I love this guys stuff - it's usually on espn insider, talking about ways to fill out brackets using different mathematical strategies... probably a littlein depth for some of you guys, but a good reason none-the-less, especially if you wanna be a bracket pro like myself.
February 12, 2009
[font=times new roman, times, serif]Bracket Building[/font]
Using Tempo-Free Stats
by Pete Tiernan
Printer-
friendly
That's why I developed PASE. PASE compares the total number of wins that teams with given attributes attain to the number their seeding indicates that they should've achieved. PASE is calculated by tallying the positive or negative differences between actual and expected wins at each seed position. The total of these differences is divided by the number of appearances to arrive at an average number of games that teams either over- or underperform per tourney. In short, PASE provides a way to measure the relative impact of team attributes on tourney performance.
PASE is a useful tool for analyzing the key indicators of tourney advancement, but it's only really effective if applied to the right statistics. While I've been working for years on ways to become a better bracketeer, statistical gurus like Ken Pomeroy and John Gasaway have been working on methods to get a more accurate reflection of the strengths and weaknesses of basketball teams in actual game play. Their primary tool is tempo-free, or possession-based, statistics. As Basketball Prospectus readers know, Ken and John contend that raw numbers like points scored and allowed are only meaningful in the context of the number of a times a team possesses the ball or defends against a possession. In other words, the most accurate way to gauge a team's offensive or defensive ability is to analyze its efficiency in scoring or preventing scores. Which team is better offensively: a grind-it-out team that has 60 possessions in a game and scores 66 points, or a greyhound squad that has 80 possessions and gets 80 points? Sure, the greyhounds score more points, but they get an average of only one point per possession. Meanwhile, the grinders score an average of 1.1 points.
Tempo-free statisticians have devised basic formulas to calculate four key numbers:
I could go into great detail on how these numbers are calculated, but it would take a lot of explaining. Besides, Ken and John have already done it, and much better than I ever could. They've even adjusted the stats for the quality of opponent and home court advantage. What I was curious about--and what anyone interested in building a better bracket would no doubt like to know--is whether these tempo-free stats can actually help predict tourney overachievers.
- The number of possessions a given team has per game (called "tempo")
- The number of points a given team scores per 100 possessions (called "offensive efficiency")
- The number of points a given team allows per 100 possessions (called "defensive efficiency")
- The predicted winning percentage of a team based on its offensive and defensive efficiency (called "Pythagorean winning percentage")
Fortunately, that's just the kind of question that PASE can help answer. Ken was generous enough to share with me the pre-tourney data from 2004 to 2008 so that I could conduct this analysis. Five years isn't exactly a huge sample size, but it's worth finding out as early as possible whether there's any connection between tempo-free stats and tourney success so that we can track it into the future. With that, let's take a look at the four possession-based stats and use PASE to analyze their predictive value.
Playing Tempo
Possession-based stats remove the bias of playing tempo from the assessment of a team's offensive or defensive effectiveness. Eliminating the influence of tempo assumes, however, that there isn't any inherent value in playing the game faster or slower that supercedes efficiency. It's a reasonable assumption, but is it true, particularly in the pressure cooker of March Madness? Does an up-tempo style of play lead to tourney overachievement, or are more deliberate teams more likely to exceed seed expectations?
We evaluated the tempo statistics and tourney results of the 120 teams seeded one through six since 2004 (restricting our analysis to the teams expected to have the most success), and here's what we found:
Surprisingly, the 35 one- through six-seeded teams ranked as the 16 fastest playing squads in their year are actually the biggest underachievers. Based on seed projections, they should've won about 75 games; in fact, they won 69 games, yielding an underperforming PASE of -.173. Conversely, teams ranked among the 16 slowest-paced squads for their year are the highest overachievers. Their win total of 53 games is 5.5 more than seed projections. That works out to a +.190 PASE.
Here's another way to assess the value of playing tempo in tourney performance. Among teams seeded one through six since 2004, the median number of possessions they've averaged per game is 67.35 (or one possession every 17.8 seconds, for the statistically curious). If you run the PASE numbers on the 60 teams with an above-median number of possessions, you find that they're -.068 PASE underachievers who exceed expectations just 33 percent of the time. Meanwhile, the 60 teams that hold the ball longer than the median amount of time are +.068 overachievers, beating seed projections at a 43% clip.
So, it would seem that a slower playing tempo correlates to higher tourney overachievement...but here's an interesting counterpoint to that conclusion: four of the five most recent tourney champs have been among the 60 faster-paced squads. Only Florida in 2006 played at a slower tempo than the median rate. Bottom line: while a more deliberate style of play has led to slight overachievement in the tourney, the teams that wind up cutting down the nets still play at a faster pace than usual.
Offensive Efficiency
In the 24 years of the 64-team tourney era, offensive firepower has been a key indicator of tourney achievement. Teams averaging more than 77 points a game are +.077 overachievers, account for 72 of the 96 Final Four slots, and have won 21 of 24 tourneys. Given these numbers, it would only stand to reason that offensive efficiency would be a strong indicator of overperformance as well. Wouldn't it?
The answer is yes--but not as strong a "yes" as you might think. In fact, one could argue that playing tempo has a stronger correlation to overachievement than offensive efficiency does. The median number of points scored by the 120 2004-2008 teams seeded one through six is 117.3 per 100 possessions. Teams falling below median offensive efficiency have a -.047 PASE, with just five Final Four appearances and one championship. Teams that score at an above-median efficiency rate have a +.047 PASE, with 14 Final Four trips and four championships. One thing is clear: there's a bigger PASE gulf--and therefore a stronger correlation to tourney performance--for teams playing below and above median tempo (-.068 plus +.068 comes to a .136 discrepancy) than there is for teams scoring above and below the median rate of offensive efficiency (just a .094 discrepency).
That said, 14 of the 19 Final Four contenders seeded one through six (George Mason occupied the other semi-final slot and isn't in the analysis because they were an 11 seed) have been more offensively efficient than the median rate. Only nine of 18 Final Four contenders have played at a more deliberate pace than the median higherseeded squad. Given the choice, I would rather base my bracket picks--particularly my deep advancers--on offensive efficiency than playing tempo.
Here's another indication that offensive efficiency is relevant in assessing a team's tourney performance: one- through six-seeded teams ranked among the top 16 most offensively efficient squads in their year account for all five tourney champs and 14 Final Four slots. Sure, their +.036 PASE is nothing to write home about, but there's no denying that teams reaching the late rounds of the dance must be productive with the basketball.
That's worth remembering, but the much larger point about offensive efficiency is that it's not as strong an indicator of overachievement as raw scoring output would lead you to believe. In fact, the correlation between offensive efficiency and tourney performance is much softer than it is between defensive efficiency and PASE achievement results. When the 120 higher-seeded teams are evaluated through what I call "seed status" analysis, the differences in the value of offensive and defensive efficiency come more clearly into view.
Here's how this type of analysis works: if offensive efficiency perfectly reflected the relative strengths of the top 24 teams in each tourney, then they ought to be seeded according to where they ranked in points per 100 possessions. If a team was ranked ninth in offensive efficiency, it should be given a No. 3 seed (since teams ranked first through eighth would take the top two seeds). If this team was "over-seeded," it would've been given a one or two seed. If it was under-seeded, the team would've been demoted to a four seed or lower.
If offensive efficiency had any validity as a performance indicator, the teams that were seeded exactly where their points per 100 possessions ranking dictated could be expected to perform to seed expectations. Those teams elevated above where their offensive efficiency placed them, however, would underachieve against expectations (since they didn't deserve their loftier seed). And the teams that were dropped below where their offensive efficiency would've placed them could be expected to overachieve. So what's happened over the last five years? Take a peek:
Teams seeded exactly where they should've been according to offensive efficiency didn't just meet expectations; they exceeded them at a +.131 PASE clip. That's not terribly surprising, but this is: the teams that were seeded above what they deserved based on offensive efficiency nearly met expectations (-.003 PASE) when they should've been the biggest underachievers. Conversely, those teams with greater offensive productivity than the seed position to which they were relegated were the largest underachieving group (-.095 PASE) when they should've been the biggest overperformers.
This discrepancy between how over- and under-seeded offensively efficient teams should and actually do perform is one more sign that "points per 100 possessions," while a mild indicator of overachievement, isn't exactly a "must-track" stat. It's certainly less meaningful than defensive efficiency, as we're about to see.
Defensive Efficiency
For years, I argued against the old sports adage that "defense wins championships" in the NCAA tournament. The raw points-scored and points-allowed numbers seemed to indicate that offensive firepower was a much more reliable indicator of a deep tourney run than defensive stinginess. When I ran the possession-based defensive efficiency numbers through PASE analysis, however, I discovered that defense actually does matter.
In fact, by nearly every measure, defensive efficiency is a decisively stronger indicator of overachievement than offensive efficiency is. Let's start by examining above- and below-median defensively efficient squads. Since 2004, the median number of points a one- through six-seeded team has allowed per 100 possessions is 88.8. The 60 higher-seeded teams that forced opponents to score less efficiently than that have a solid PASE of +.131 and account for 16 of 19 Final Four slots and four of five championships. Compare that to the 60 higher-seeded squads that allow opponents to score with more-than-median efficiency (an underachieving -.131 PASE, just three of 19 Final Four slots and one of five championships). Now, consider above-median offensively efficient higher seeds: they muster a +.047 PASE, 14 of 19 semi-final slots and four of five tourney crowns.
The supremacy of defense over offense is also evident in the PASE values of the higher-seeded squads when divided into four defensive efficiency ranking categories. Check out these numbers:
Teams ranked among the top 16 most defensively efficient squads in their particular years have a +.092 PASE, 16 Final Four appearances and four championships. The next tier of teams-those ranked between 17 and 32 for their year-has a similar PASE (+.094), with three semi-final trips and one tourney crown. The two most defensively inefficient tiers--those ranked 33 to 48 and 49 to 64--have sizeable underachieving PASE records of -.414 and -.413, respectively. Not only that, but no team in the last five years has reached the Final Four that was among the bottom half of their tourney field in defensive efficiency.
If that doesn't convince you that defensive efficiency is critical to a deep, seed-defying run, then check out the seed-status analysis. Remember the logic here: If defensive efficiency had any validity as a performance indicator, the teams seeded above where their defensive efficiency placed them would underachieve against expectations (since they didn't deserve their loftier seed). And the teams that were dropped below where their defensive efficiency would've seeded them could be expected to overachieve. Unlike offensive efficiency, this is exactly what's happened. Take a look at the results:
The 65 teams that were seeded above where their defensive efficiency would indicate did in fact underachieve as expected-by almost 12 games, for a PASE of -.181. The 30 teams that were under-seeded according to defensive efficiency demonstrated the value of defense by overachieving at a +.080 clip.
There are no two ways about it: since 2004, defensive efficiency has been a stronger and more consistent predictor of tourney overachievement than offensive efficiency has been. Of course, the last five tourneys have been among the six lowest-scoring in the history of the 64-team era. So it's unclear whether defensive efficiency has trumped offensive efficiency throughout the 24 years of the modern tourney. That said, with the recent trend of lower-scoring fields, my guess is that defensive efficiency will continue to be a key performance indicator.
Pythagorean Winning Percentage
If you pay attention to only one tempo-free stat, keep your eye on what Ken Pomeroy calls "Pythagorean winning percentage." You can read more about the formula Ken uses to generate the stat on kenpom.com, but suffice it to say that "Pythag," as they call it, is based on offensive and defensive efficiency with no consideration for actual winning records.
As powerful a predictor of tourney performance as defensive efficiency is, Pythag is even better. Among the top 24 seeded teams from the last five years, those above the Pythag median winning percentage of .9576 have an overachieving PASE of +.198, while those below underperform at a -.198 PASE rate. The top eight Pythag teams in each of the five dances studied have an eye-popping PASE of +.506, better than half a game per tourney better than expectations. In fact, of the 40 teams, 18 have gone to the Final Four and all five champions are among them.
Heck, the NCAA Selection Committee might do well to factor Pythag into their seeding deliberations. If Pythag rankings were a valid guide to seeding, you'd expect teams seeded above where their Pythag dictated to underperform and teams "demoted" below their Pythag ranking to overperform. That's precisely what happens...big time:
The teams that were seeded right where Pythag suggested they should be performed the closest to seed expectations, just as you'd expected them to if Pythag had validity as a measure of tourney performance. Meanwhile, those teams that were elevated above their Pythag ranking predictably tanked, posting a stunning -.345 PASE. The teams that were demoted below the level of their Pythag value? They massively overachieved, netting a strong +.335 PASE. Perhaps most tellingly, only one higher-seeded squad that was overseeded reached the Final Four; that was North Carolina last year--and they got pounded by Kansas. Every other semi-finalist and all the champions were either right-seeded or under-seeded according to Pythag.
Comparing Tempo-free Stats to Leading PASE Attributes
The evidence, at least for the last five years, is conclusive: tempo-free stats are a pretty big deal. So far, we've learned that:
That invites one big question: how do tempo-free stats compare to other key attributes as predictors of overachievement? A thorough answer to this question would require a whole new study, but let's restrict our comparison to seven other leading factors. Here's how "above-median" Pythag and offensive and defensive efficiency stack up to "above-median" (or as close as I can get to it) points scored, points allowed, victory margin, coaching experience, team experience and winning percentage for 2004 through 2008.
- There is little inherent value in playing an up-tempo brand of ball; if anything, the more deliberate teams are stronger tourney overachievers.
- Offensive efficiency does have a positive correlation to tourney overperformance, but it isn't nearly as strong as the value of raw offensive firepower might suggest.
- Defensive efficiency, on the other hand, is a far more critical requirement for a deep tourney run than than offensive efficiency.
- Pythag is the most reliable guide to tourney advancement of all tempo-free stats.
Granted, five tourneys isn't a big sample size, but it's clear that tempo-free stats rank right up there with the top predictors of tourney performance. It's a little surprising that raw "points allowed" is a little better than Pythag in identifying tourney overachievers. But these last five tourneys have been unusually lower scoring than past dances. That said, I suspect that the trend toward slower-paced college ball will continue.
Some of the other surprising stats on this list involve pre-tourney momentum and winning percentage. For once, the pundits appear to be right: teams that are hotter coming to the dance do overachieve. I never would've imagined that raw winning percentage mattered, but the numbers don't lie. All five of the tourney champs--and 16 of 19 semi-finalists--have owned a record better than .796.
Any of these performance indicators, considered individually, aren't nearly as powerful in predicting tourney success as they are when combined. Consider the squads that are on the better side of the top nine of these statistics (I dropped team experience since it's a slight negative indicator. There are just five of them (Oklahoma State and UConn in 2004, Louisville in 2005, and Kansas in 2007 and 200…but only the 2007 Jayhawk squad failed to reach the Final Four, and two champs (UConn in '04 and Kansas last year) are among the group. Perhaps more impressively, these five teams own a whopping +1.940 PASE.
Heck, if you just restricted your filtering to the attributes on the above list that all champs possess (above-median Pythag, winning percentage, scoring margin, points scored and coaching experience), you'd be left with 22 squads-about five per dance. These teams would account for 10 Final Fours, all the tourney crowns, and a hefty PASE of +.675. Wanna do better? Up the winning percentage to .800, points scored to 78 and scoring margin to 13 per game, then restrict your group to teams winning at least seven of their last 10. Only 15 squads in the last five years--three per tourney--have fulfilled these conditions. Nine of them (60 percent) have reached the Final Four, and every champ has been among them. Not only that, but the group overachieves by more than one game per tourney (+1.120 PASE).
Using Pythag to Pick the Last Five Brackets
The last and most basic analysis I did on tempo-free stats sprung out of the uncanny performance of Pomeroy's numbers in picking the 2008 bracket. If you filled out your bracket last year using Ken's "Pythag" rankings, you would've wound up in the 97th percentile of the ESPN Tourney Challenge and likely won your tourney pool.
Given such a sterling performance, I wondered how well Pythag had done in prior years, and how it might compare to more basic systems, like just picking the higher seeds. Even the most clueless bracket rookie can do that.
As I've already said, these last five years might not be representative of the entire 64-team era...but the supremacy of Pythag might just be an anomaly. Overall, filling out your bracket by Pythag rankings would've netted you an average of 42.4 correct picks out of 63 games. While you would've gotten 48 picks right last year, you would've just gotten 37 right in 2006. Pythag would've steered you to the ultimate champion just twice--last year with Kansas and in 2005 with UConn.
On the other hand, filling out a no-brainer bracket of all higher seeds (and picking the top seed with the higher scoring margin from the Final Four on), would've gotten you an average of one extra correct pick per tourney than Pythag. From 2004 to 2008, the "higher seed, higher margin" strategy would've resulted in an average of 43.4 correct picks, with a high of 49 in 2007 and a low of 38 in 2006. More importantly, it would've pointed you to three tourney champs: Kansas last year, Florida in 2007 and UConn in 2005. If you're keeping score, "no-brainer" bracket picking beat out Pythag picking in three of the last five dances.
Don't get me wrong: tempo-free stats are invaluable in assessing the relative performance of teams in the tourney. But this quick analysis confirmed for me what I'm sure Ken already knew: Pythag data, like any other bracket-picking strategy, isn't an infallible system for bringing sanity to March Madness.
That said, tempo-free stats, particularly Pythag winning percentage and defensive efficiency, are pivotal attributes to consider in identifying deep tourney advancers. They take on even greater importance when combined with other key performance indicators. After Selection Sunday, make sure you get hold of Ken's numbers and consult them as you fill out your bracket.
--
Pete Tiernan has been using stats to analyze March Madness for 19 years. His insights into the NCAA basketball tournament can help you build a better bracket. E-mail him here or visit bracketscience.com.
dacomeup
Supporter
- Jan 20, 2006
- 26,601
- 37,542
UConn's Dyson expected out for year
ESPN.com news services
Top-ranked Connecticut will have to finish the year without one of its most productive and dependable players.
The school announced on Thursday that second-leading scorer Jerome Dyson will be out for the remainder of the season with a torn lateral meniscus in his right knee.
Dyson, who averaged 13.2 points and was second on the team in assists, was injured with 15:44 left in the Huskies' 63-49 victory over Syracuse on Wednesday.
The tear was confirmed during an MRI on Thursday afternoon and the 6-foot-4 guard will have surgery on the injured knee within the next week.
"We are obviously all very disappointed for Jerome, who has been such a big part of why we are 23-1 and in first place in the Big East," said head coach Jim Calhoun. "I know that he will work hard in the offseason and be back next year as a major contributor to our future success. As for our team going forward this season, it is another challenge we will have to face. We have very good players who I know will rise to the occasion and fill the void left by Jerome's absence."
Dyson, from Rockville, Md., had started all 24 games for the Huskies this season.
Wow, that's going to hurt UCONN.
Friars player's brother serves his time
Associated Press
PROVIDENCE, R.I. -- The brother of a Providence basketball player who ran onto the court to confront a referee has been released from jail after 16 days behind bars.
Jonathan Xavier admitted Thursday to Providence Superior Court Judge William Carnes that he broke the terms of his probation on drug charges by rushing onto the court during a game Jan. 16 against Marquette. Prosecutors said Xavier was sentenced to time served.
Xavier still faces a disorderly conduct charge for coming down the stands. He was upset that no foul was called after his brother, Jeff Xavier, was hit in the face by a defender's arm while driving to the basket.
Jonathan Xavier's defense attorney declined to comment.
Our boy got out today.
dacomeup
Supporter
- Jan 20, 2006
- 26,601
- 37,542
College Basketball Bubble Watch
Numbers alone won't save some teams
Mark Schlabach
ESPN.com
Editor's note: This file has been updated to include all games through Wednesday, Feb. 11.
It's an indication of how fluid the at-large environment is this season that this week's Bubble Watch welcomes only two members to "lock"status. Villanova, on the heels of convincing home wins over Syracuse and Marquette, joins the club as does Missouri. The Tigers turned the Big 12 marathoninto a three-team sprint to the finish line with a win at home over Kansas.
Many teams remain precariously placed on the Bubble, however, and with the regular season winding down, opportunities to earn signature wins are becoming rare.Georgetown and Wisconsin, despite suffering five- and six-game losing streaks respectively this season, still find themselves in the tourney mix based on theirgaudy computer numbers and daunting schedules. This time of year, however, the most valuable currency comes in the form of wins, and while the Badgers arestarting to get back on track with a three-game winning streak -- the Hoyas are in danger of fading out of the Bubble discussion altogether.
Here is this week's Bubble Watch:
Atlantic Coast Conference
Teams that should be in: Florida State
Work left to do: Maryland, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Miami (FL)
Third-ranked North Carolina took control of the ACC race (and a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament) by winning at Duke 101-87 on Wednesday night. Wake Forestonce seemed like a potential No. 1 seed, but it has suddenly lost four of its last six games, including a surprising 82-76 defeat at NC State on Wednesdaynight. Florida State moved a couple of steps closer to securing an at-large bid, and four other ACC teams remain in the hunt.
Florida State [19-5 (6-3), RPI: 20, SOS: 32] The Seminoles' patience with coach Leonard Hamilton is finally paying off. Thanks to its current three-gamewinning streak, FSU is poised to play in its first NCAA tournament since 1998. After rallying from a 19-point deficit in the second half to upset Clemson 65-61on the road Saturday (which improved FSU's record to 9-2 away from home), the Seminoles beat Virginia 68-57 in Tallahassee on Tuesday night. FSU improvedto 6-3 in ACC play and, barring a late-season collapse, should receive an at-large bid for the first time in Hamilton's seven seasons.
Maryland [15-8 (4-5), RPI: 74, SOS: 72] The Terrapins kept their fleeting at-large hopes alive with a 57-56 victory at Georgia Tech on Sunday. But Marylandstill seems to be in pretty big trouble after losing five of its last eight games. The Terps can get back into serious contention (or get eliminated fromat-large discussion altogether) in their next four games, starting with Saturday's home contest against Virginia Tech. After hosting the Hokies, the Terpstravel to Clemson and then play North Carolina and Duke in College Park. Maryland beat Michigan and Michigan State during nonconference play but have largelyfeasted on only the ACC's lesser teams. A 1-4 record in road games and 2-6 mark against RPI top-50 teams won't help, either.
Boston College [18-8 (6-5), RPI: 51, SOS: 48] After winning five games in a row to get back into at-large contention, the Eagles were beaten soundly in theirlast two games. Boston College was routed 93-76 at Wake Forest on Sunday, and then lost to Clemson 87-77 at home on Tuesday night. Things won't get anyeasier Sunday night, when the Eagles host Duke in Chestnut Hill. The Eagles' 85-77 victory at North Carolina in their ACC opener will carry a lot of weightwith the NCAA selection committee, but they'll also have to overcome ugly losses to St. Louis and Harvard. Boston College might need a 9-7 finish in theACC to feel confident about securing an at-large bid.
Virginia Tech [16-7 (6-3), RPI: 43, SOS: 46] The Hokies avoided a huge setback by rallying from an 18-point deficit in the final 14 minutes against NC State onSunday before winning 91-87 in overtime. Virginia Tech followed that comeback with a 76-71 victory over Georgia Tech on Wednesday night, which improved itsrecord to 6-3 against ACC foes. The Hokies split two games against fellow ACC bubble team Boston College and beat Wake Forest and Miami. The Hokies don'thave a lot to show from their nonconference schedule, other than not-so-great losses to Georgia and Seton Hall. Virginia Tech plays three of its next fourgames on the road, starting Saturday at Maryland.
Miami (FL) [15-8 (4-6), RPI: 42, SOS: 13] The Hurricanes squandered a golden opportunity to get on the right side of the bubble last week, blowing a 16-pointlead in the second half against Duke on Saturday before losing 78-75 in overtime. Miami has lost four of its last five games, but its lone victory during theslump was a 79-52 rout of Wake Forest on Feb. 4. Miami is 4-6 in the ACC heading into Sunday night's game against North Carolina. The Hurricanes need tokeep their heads above water in their next three games (after playing the Tar Heels, they play at Florida State and host Boston College), before finishing theregular season with games against the ACC's three worst teams. A finish of at least 8-8 would seem to be necessary for an at-large bid, so Miami can'tafford many more losses.
Locks
[Duke Blue Devils]
[North Carolina Tar Heels]
[Wake Forest Demon Deacons]
[Clemson Tigers]
Big East Conference
Work left to do: Providence, Cincinnati, Georgetown, Syracuse, West Virginia
Say hello to Villanova, which becomes the fifth Big East team to earn "lock" status by blasting Marquette 102-84 at home Tuesday night. Say goodbyeto Notre Dame, which becomes the country's most disappointing team with a seven-game losing streak and a 3-7 mark in Big East play. If Georgetowndoesn't turn its season around quickly, it will join the not-so-Fighting Irish on a growing list of underachievers.
Providence [15-9 (7-5), RPI: 64, SOS: 44] The Friars' résumé looks a lot like what Cincinnati will put before the NCAA selection committee. But Providenceowns the tiebreaker, having beaten the Bearcats twice last month. The Friars are 3-5 against RPI top-50 foes (they also beat Syracuse 100-94 at home Jan. 2,and each of their nine losses came against an opponent ranked No. 77 or better in the RPI ratings. With a 7-5 record in Big East play, Providence can get to 10wins by beating slumping Notre Dame and sweeping two games against Rutgers. The Friars also play road games at Louisville and Villanova and a home game againstPittsburgh, so there's little room for error.
Cincinnati [17-8 (7-5), RPI: 49, SOS: 29] The Bearcats' next four games -- at Pittsburgh, home against Louisville and West Virginia, and at Syracuse --will go a long way in determining whether they're legitimate at-large candidates. Cincinnati has won five of its last six games, including a 71-61 victoryover St. John's on Wednesday night. The Bearcats swept two games against Georgetown and also have so-so victories over UAB (home), Mississippi State(neutral court) and UNLV (road). Each of Cincinnati's eight losses came against opponents ranked No. 64 or better in the RPI ratings, but six of its 16wins came against foes ranked No. 200 or worse.
Georgetown [13-9 (4-7), RPI: 34, SOS: 2] If not for playing the country's second-toughest schedule, Georgetown probably wouldn't even be in theat-large discussion. The Hoyas are only 4-8 in their last 12 games, losing six of their last seven. Georgetown is 3-7 against RPI top-50 foes (wins atConnecticut and home against Memphis and Syracuse) and is 1-5 on the road. Four of Georgetown's final seven regular-season games will be played away fromhome, and it will have to beat at least two of the Big East's better teams (at Syracuse and Villanova and home against Marquette and Louisville) to haveany chance of finishing 9-9 in league play. History suggests the Hoyas aren't done yet. The 2000-01 Georgia team finished 16-14, losing seven of its last10 games, but still made the NCAA tournament field largely because it played the country's toughest schedule.
Syracuse [18-7 (6-6), RPI: 22, SOS: 21] The Orange's computer numbers are still very good, but they have to start winning some games. Syracuse has lost sixof its last eight games, including a 63-49 loss at Connecticut on Wednesday night. The Orange dropped to 6-6 in Big East play, and they've beaten only oneleague foe (West Virginia) in contention for an NCAA at-large bid. Syracuse's victories at Memphis and against Kansas (neutral court) are looking betterand better each week. The Orange are 4-5 against RPI top-50 opponents, but their 6-6 mark in the last 12 games raises a red flag.
West Virginia [16-8 (5-6), RPI: 15, SOS: 6] The Mountaineers might seem to be safe based on their strong computer numbers, but those ratings are prettyinflated because they've played the country's sixth-toughest schedule. West Virginia is only 6-6 in its last 12 games, losing four of its last six,including a 70-59 loss at Pittsburgh on Monday night. The Mountaineers are 2-7 against RPI top-50 opponents, and one of their victories (Georgetown) isn'tcarrying as much weight as it once did. The good news: West Virginia's toughest stretch will be over after Friday night's home game against Villanova.The Mountaineers play only one of the Big East's top seven teams (Louisville) in their final six regular-season games, although a Feb. 26 road game atCincinnati (coach Bob Huggins' old school) might prove to be pretty significant.
Locks
[Connecticut Huskies]
[Louisville Cardinals]
[Pittsburgh Panthers]
[Villanova Wildcats]
[Marquette Golden Eagles]
Big Ten Conference
Teams that should be in: Purdue, Minnesota, Ohio State, Illinois
Work left to do: Penn State, Michigan, Wisconsin
Illinois and Ohio State might have made up more ground than any other teams in the country over the last few weeks, and both teams seem very close to lockingup at-large spots. Purdue seemed close to doing that before losing forward Robbie Hummel to a back injury. Wisconsin is back on the way up, but Michigan andPenn State are now fading fast.
Purdue [18-6 (7-4), RPI: 31, SOS: 47] The Boilermakers finally won without Robbie Hummel on Wednesday night, beating Penn State 61-47 at home. Purdue clearlyisn't the same team without Hummel, the preseason Big Ten Player of the Year, who has missed the last three games with a stress fracture in his lower back.Hummel, who averages 12.9 points and 7.5 rebounds, hasn't played since a 67-49 win over Michigan on Jan. 31. The Boilermakers are 6-1 against Big Ten foeswhen Hummel plays; they're 1-3 without him (Hummel also missed a 67-64 loss at Penn State on Jan. 6). The NCAA selection committee will considerHummel's absence when evaluating the Boilermakers, who still seem to be in very good shape for an at-large bid. They won at Minnesota and beat Davidson ona neutral court, and four of their six losses came against teams ranked No. 15 or better in the RPI.
Minnesota [19-5 (7-5), RPI: 28, SOS: 55] The Gophers ended a two-game losing streak with a 62-54 victory over Indiana on Tuesday night. Minnesota faces a pairof potentially dangerous road traps the next two games, at Penn State on Saturday and at Michigan on Feb. 19. If Minnesota can win both road games, it wouldmove pretty close to "lock" status. The Gophers are 7-5 in their last 12 games and have solid wins over Louisville (neutral court), Illinois (home)and Ohio State (home). Minnesota's only questionable defeat was a 74-65 loss at Northwestern on Jan. 18.
Ohio State [17-5 (7-4), RPI: 21, SOS: 37] The Buckeyes have won four games in a row to move into a three-way tie for second place in the Big Ten standings.Coach Thad Matta's young team is hitting its stride at the right time of the season, winning eight of its last 12 games. The Buckeyes are 4-5 against RPItop-50 teams, and their 54-51 victory over Butler on Dec. 13 will carry a lot of weight with the selection committee. So will Big Ten victories over Purdue andMinnesota. Ohio State needs to finish strong to improve its seeding, which won't be easy. It plays four of its last seven games on the road and has homegames against Illinois and Penn State.
Illinois [19-5 (7-4), RPI: 14, SOS: 27] The Illini will probably move to "lock" status if they win their next two games, at Northwestern on Thursdaynight and at Indiana on Sunday. Illinois is 8-4 in its last 12 games and 5-4 against RPI top-50 opponents. The Illini beat Purdue 66-48 on Sunday, their secondvictory over the Boilermakers this season. Illinois also beat Missouri (neutral court) and Ohio State (home), and each of its five losses came against teamsranked No. 52 or better in the RPI ratings. After playing two of the Big Ten's lesser teams, the Illini face a difficult five-game stretch -- two gamesagainst Penn State sandwiched around a road game at Ohio State and home games against Minnesota and Michigan State -- to finish the regular season.
Penn State [17-8 (6-6), RPI: 81, SOS: 128] After winning four games in a row, the Nittany Lions have dropped three straight, including a 61-47 defeat at Purdueon Wednesday night. At this point, Penn State's at-large chances are on life support. It can show the NCAA selection committee only two really solidvictories -- at Michigan State and home against Purdue -- and a so-so win over Michigan at home. There really isn't much else to the Nittany Lions'body of work. Their nonconference schedule ranks No. 329 in the country, and their best non-Big Ten victory came against RPI No. 123 Mount St. Mary's(which really doesn't say much for Georgia Tech). Penn State still plays Illinois twice and Ohio State once, and it might need to win two of those games tokeep its fleeting at-large hopes alive.
Michigan [15-10 (5-7), RPI: 54, SOS: 12] The Wolverines have defeated three of college basketball's better teams (Duke, Illinois and UCLA), but theyhaven't beaten enough of the rest. Now, Michigan is in serious trouble after losing seven of its last nine games. Winning one of the last two games,against No. 1 Connecticut and No. 9 Michigan State, obviously would have helped tremendously. The Wolverines lost to Ohio State twice and fell to Wisconsin andPurdue. Michigan plays the Boilermakers and Badgers again and faces Minnesota twice.
Wisconsin [15-9 (6-6), RPI: 29, SOS: 4] The Badgers are back in the bubble discussion after winning their last three games, including a 69-52 victory over Iowaon Wednesday night, to get back to 6-6 in Big Ten play. Wisconsin's computer numbers are very good because they've played the country'sfourth-toughest schedule, losing games to Connecticut (neutral court), Marquette (road) and Texas (home). The Badgers beat Illinois 63-50 on Feb. 5 and willget help from their 74-72 victory at Virginia Tech on Dec. 1. But they might need at least one or two more signature victories to bolster their at-largechances. Wisconsin will have ample opportunities in its last six regular-season games, which include road trips to Michigan State and Minnesota and a home gameagainst Ohio State.
Locks
[Michigan State Spartans]
Big 12 Conference
Work left to do: Kansas State, Nebraska, Texas
By winning its last four games, including a 62-60 victory over Kansas on Monday, Missouri joins Oklahoma and the Jayhawks as "locks" to receive NCAAat-large bids. The rest of the Big 12 is a mess. Texas finally got back on track with a rout of Oklahoma State, and Nebraska and Kansas State have come out ofnowhere to get back into contention. But Baylor, Oklahoma State and Texas A&M are fading fast and are out of the bubble picture for now. The Bears andAggies play in Waco on Saturday. The winner might move back into the bubble race; the loser might be done altogether.
Kansas State [17-7 (6-4), RPI: 72, SOS: 96] After starting Big 12 play with four consecutive losses, the Wildcats have worked themselves back into contentionwith a six-game winning streak. Kansas State beat Texas Tech 85-73 on Wednesday night, which moved it into fourth place in the Big 12 standings. But theWildcats might have to finish 10-6 in the Big 12 to have a legitimate chance at earning an at-large bid. Kansas State did nothing even remotely impressiveduring nonconference play, losing to Kentucky, Iowa and Oregon. In fact, eight of its 10 nonconference victories against Division I opponents came againstteams ranked No. 150 or worse in the RPI ratings. With that kind of résumeé, the Wildcats will probably need more than victories over Missouri and Texas toshow the selection committee.
Nebraska [15-7 (5-4), RPI: 69, SOS: 61] The Cornhuskers' body of work looks similar to Kansas State's résumeacute;. Nebraska's best victories cameagainst Missouri and Texas, and it has won three games in a row to get back into the bubble picture. But Nebraska still has much work to do. Like the Wildcats,the Cornhuskers have little to show from their nonconference schedule. They have a so-so victory over Creighton, but six of their 10 nonconference wins cameagainst teams ranked No. 200 or lower in the RPI ratings. Worse, Nebraska lost to RPI No. 212 UMBC 66-64 on Dec. 23.
Texas [16-7 (5-4), RPI: 37, SOS: 3![0]](/styles/default/xenforo/NTemojis/alien.gif "Alien 0]")
The Longhorns ended a three-game losing streak by blasting Oklahoma State 99-74 in Austin on Tuesday night. The victorymoved Texas back above .500 in Big 12 play and leaves it in pretty decent shape for an at-large bid. The Longhorns will get a lot of mileage from theirvictories over UCLA and Villanova, two of their five victories over RPI top-50 opponents. But Texas really hasn't done much during Big 12 play, beatingslumping Baylor and Texas A&M and the league's lesser teams. The Longhorns lost to Big 12 leader Oklahoma and fellow bubble teams Kansas State andNebraska. The Longhorns play consecutive road games in three days, at Colorado on Saturday and at Texas A&M on Monday.
Locks
[Missouri Tigers]
[Oklahoma Sooners]
[Kansas Jayhawks]
Pacific-10 Conference
Teams that should be in: Arizona State
Work left to do: Arizona, USC, California
Not much has changed in the Pac-10 -- UCLA and Washington seem to be the league's two best teams. Arizona State got back on track, albeit with victoriesover rebuilding Oregon and Oregon State. The Pac-10 race will begin to shake out this week, after UCLA and USC play each of the Arizona schools.
Arizona State [18-5 (7-4), RPI: 41, SOS: 101] The Sun Devils put their season back on track last week by doing what NCAA tournament-worthy teams are supposedto do -- easily win road games against rebuilding programs such as Oregon and Oregon State. Arizona State has one really good victory (at UCLA) and two solidwins (BYU and San Diego State). The Sun Devils are 3-3 against RPI top-50 foes and 7-5 against top-100 opponents. They have a 6-2 record on the road but canprobably lock up an at-large spot at home. Arizona State plays its next three games at home, starting with Thursday night's contest against UCLA andfollowed by visits from USC and Arizona. If the Sun Devils win at least two of those games, they can feel awfully good about their postseason prospects.
Arizona [16-8 (6-5), RPI: 53, SOS: 69] The Wildcats stayed in the bubble discussion last week by winning road games at Oregon State and Oregon. Arizona couldreally help itself by winning at least one of its next two home games, against USC on Thursday night and UCLA on Saturday. The Wildcats have two nonconferencevictories (Kansas at home and Gonzaga on a neutral court) that will catch the committee's eyes, along with home wins over Washington and San Diego State.But with its upcoming home games against the California schools and road trips to Arizona State and Washington looming, the Wildcats still have work to do.
USC [15-7 (6-4), RPI: 40, SOS: 23] The Trojans haven't played since they lost badly at rival UCLA 76-60 on Feb. 4. USC faces a really important four-gamestretch, starting Thursday night at Arizona. After playing the Wildcats, the Trojans play at Arizona State on Sunday and play home games next week againstWashington State and Washington. The Trojans really need some quality wins to feel confident about their at-large chances. USC is only 2-5 against RPI top-50teams, with both wins coming during Pac-10 play (home victories over California and Arizona State). USC played a difficult nonconference schedule, but lost toOklahoma on the road and against Missouri and Seton Hall on neutral courts. In fact, USC's best nonconference victory was a 61-57 win over RPI No. 92 NorthDakota State.
California [18-6 (7-4), RPI: 27, SOS: 4 If not for the Bears' January slide, in which they lost four of their last five games in a two-week span, theymight have already locked up an at-large spot. California turned it around last week by sweeping home games against Washington (its second victory over theHuskies) and Washington State. Along with the win over Washington, Cal has an impressive road victory at Utah and home wins against Arizona State and Arizona.The Bears are 4-4 against RPI top-50 teams and should be in good shape if they take care of upcoming games against Stanford at home and Oregon and Oregon Stateon the road.
Locks
[UCLA Bruins]
[Washington Huskies]
Southeastern Conference
Teams that should be in: LSU
Work left to do: Kentucky, South Carolina, Florida, Tennessee
Finally, the SEC has a team that seems worthy of earning an NCAA at-large bid. Surprisingly, it's not Tennessee, Florida or Kentucky, which seemed to bethe league's best teams earlier this season. LSU, behind first-year coach Trent Johnson, moved to 8-1 in the SEC West with a 97-94 double-overtime victoryat Mississippi State on Wednesday night. Just as importantly, Kentucky stayed on the bubble with a 68-65 victory over Florida on Tuesday night.
LSU [20-4 (8-1), RPI: 46, SOS: 113] While the Tigers' RPI numbers suggest they still have some work to do, they took complete control of the SEC West withWednesday night's 97-94 victory in double overtime at Mississippi State. LSU is 2-3 against RPI top-50 opponents, and nine of their 20 victories cameagainst teams ranked outside the RPI top 200. But the Tigers won at Tennessee, beat South Carolina at home and swept games against Mississippi State, whichshould be enough in the mediocre SEC. The Tigers still play Florida at home and Kentucky on the road, and a victory in either game would probably secure anat-large spot.
Kentucky [17-7 (6-3), RPI: 62, SOS: 85] Jodie Meeks' late 3-pointer against Florida on Tuesday night might have saved Kentucky's NCAA at-large hopes.The 68-65 victory over Florida gave the Wildcats their third victory over an RPI top-50 opponent and kept them from losing three consecutive SEC games at RuppArena for the first time in their storied history. Kentucky still has some work to do, as their mediocre RPI numbers would suggest. The Wildcats are 3-4against RPI top-50 teams, and eight of their 17 victories have come against opponents ranked outside the RPI top 200. Kentucky plays four of its last sevengames on the road, including Saturday's game at struggling Arkansas. The Wildcats also play fellow bubble teams South Carolina and Florida on the road andplay Tennessee and LSU at home.
South Carolina [17-5 (6-3), RPI: 44, SOS: 83] As expected, the Gamecocks beat Georgia 79-68 on the road on Saturday. But South Carolina might have receivedmore help from Charleston's 77-75 victory at Davidson on Saturday. Before the Cougars' upset of the Wildcats, South Carolina's 82-80 loss inovertime against Charleston on Nov. 28 looked like a big blemish on its resume. The Gamecocks have only one victory against an RPI top-50 opponent, 70-69 overFlorida on Jan. 21. Unfortunately, the SEC schedule won't help much in terms of schedule strength, with only one remaining opponent (Tennessee) currentlyranked in the RPI top 60. Because of its weak schedule strength, South Carolina might need at least a 10-6 finish in SEC play to have a real chance at anat-large bid.
Florida [19-5 (6-3), RPI: 35, SOS: 103] Somebody from the SEC has to go to the NCAA tournament, and the Gators are in better shape than most of theleague's other teams. But if Florida played in another conference, it would probably be just a very average team this season. The Gators are 2-4 againstRPI top-50 opponents and 2-4 on the road. They beat Washington on a neutral court and South Carolina at home. Really, that's about it as far as qualitywins. In fact, nine of Florida's 19 wins came against opponents ranked No. 200 or worse in the RPI, including four foes ranked No. 300 or worse. Floridawould have helped itself by finishing at Kentucky on Tuesday night, but the Wildcats won 68-65 on Jodie Meeks' late 3-pointer.
Tennessee [15-8 (6-3), RPI: 24, SOS: 3] Based on their five victories over RPI top-50 teams, and the fact they've played the country's third-toughestschedule, the Volunteers are still in pretty good shape for an at-large bid. But Tennessee remains one of the sport's most maddening teams. After blowingout Florida and beating Arkansas on the road, the Vols lost at Auburn 78-77 on Saturday. Tennessee recovered to blow out Georgia 79-48 on Wednesday night, butthe Bulldogs haven't beaten anyone during SEC play. The Vols are far too talented to have eight losses, but unless they completely collapse down thestretch, they should be pretty safe.
Atlantic 10 Conference
Teams that should be in: Dayton
The A-10 is suddenly a three-team race after Xavier dropped its last two road games, including a 71-58 loss at Dayton on Tuesday night. Saint Joseph'scurrently sits in first place with a 7-1 record in league play, but the Hawks lost at Dayton and haven't yet played Xavier. With losses at Holy Cross andAlabama, Saint Joe's hasn't done enough yet to garner serious at-large consideration. But by beating the Musketeers, the Flyers moved much closer tolocking up an at-large bid.
Dayton [22-3 (8-2), RPI: 25, SOS: 126] The Flyers probably put themselves on the right side of the bubble by blowing out No. 14 Xavier 71-58 at home onWednesday night. It is Dayton's second victory over an RPI Top-25 opponent; the Flyers beat Marquette 89-75 on a neutral court on Nov. 29. Dayton also hasso-so victories over George Mason, Miami (Ohio) and Saint Joseph's. If Dayton hadn't gotten caught looking ahead last week -- how else to explain a79-66 loss at RPI No. 180 Charlotte on Sunday -- it might have locked up an at-large spot. Dayton moved into a second-place tie with Xavier in the Atlantic 10standings. The teams play again in Cincinnati on March 5.
Locks
[Xavier Musketeers]
Other at-large contenders
Teams that should be in: Davidson, Utah
Work left to do: Saint Mary's, UNLV, San Diego State, Brigham Young, UAB, Utah State, Siena
With three wins over RPI top-50 opponents, Gonzaga still seems like a safe bet for an NCAA at-large bid. But the Bulldogs sure didn't put up much of afight in their 68-50 loss to Memphis on Saturday night. Davidson and Siena also suffered tough losses, too, leaving them little room for error down thestretch.
Davidson [20-4 (13-1), RPI: 50, SOS: 144] The Wildcats had their 43-game winning streak against Southern Conference opponents end with a 77-75 loss toCharleston at home Saturday. Davidson blew a 14-point lead in the second half of the loss, which ended its 10-game winning streak. The Wildcats don't havegreat computer numbers and have only one victory over an RPI top-50 opponent (West Virginia). But with Stephen Curry leading the country in scoring, and givenwhat the Wildcats accomplished in the 2008 NCAA tournament, it's hard to imagine their being left out of the 65-team field. That being said, Davidsonprobably can't afford another loss in conference play to feel really confident about its chances.
Utah [17-7 (8-2), RPI: 11, SOS: 11] The Utes stayed in first place in the Mountain West with a 67-55 victory over San Diego State at home Wednesday night. TheUtes have won five games in a row and have a one-game lead over the Aztecs and New Mexico in the MWC standings. Utah seems pretty close to securing an at-largebid after playing one of the country's most difficult schedules. The Utes are 4-4 against RPI top-50 teams, having beaten BYU, Gonzaga, LSU and San DiegoState. Utah lost at Oklahoma and Utah State and fell to California at home. Utah still plays MWC contender UNLV at home and plays road games at BYU and NewMexico, so its work isn't completely done.
Saint Mary's [19-4 (6-3), RPI: 59, SOS: 232] The Gaels' struggles without sophomore Patty Mills continue, as they've lost three of four gameswithout their star point guard. Saint Mary's will probably be without Mills until at least the last week of the regular season. The NCAA selectioncommittee will consider his injury when deciding St. Mary's fate, but it can't afford to completely collapse without him. But that's what SaintMary's has done over the last two weeks, losing to RPI No. 197 Santa Clara 70-52 on Saturday. The Gaels play Gonzaga on Thursday night and really can'tafford to lose badly.
UNLV [18-6 (6-4), RPI: 52, SOS: 93] The Rebels ended their two-game skid with a 71-57 victory over TCU on Tuesday night. UNLV beat BYU (road) and Utah (home)last month and will get a lot of mileage from its 56-55 victory at Louisville on Dec. 31. The Rebels' 79-64 rout of Arizona in Las Vegas on Dec. 20 islooking better and better. UNLV does have two unsightly losses -- 80-73 at TCU and 71-69 at Colorado State.
San Diego State [17-6 (7-3), RPI: 47, SOS: 62] The Aztecs' bubble hopes took a big blow Wednesday night with the loss at Utah. San Diego State could haveswept the regular-season series from the Utes and tied them for first place in the Mountain West standings. Instead, San Diego State fell one game behind theUtes and failed to win a second game against an RPI Top-25 opponent. San Diego State just doesn't have much on its résumé. Its best nonconference victorycame against RPI No. 169 San Diego, and eight of its 15 victories against Division I foes came against teams ranked No. 200 or worse in the RPI ratings.
Brigham Young [18-5 (6-3), RPI: 39, SOS: 68] The Cougars stay in the picture with convincing wins over Air Force and Colorado State. BYU remains in fourthplace in the highly competitive Mountain West, and might need to avenge a couple of its first-half losses to remain in the hunt. BYU beat San Diego State butlost games to Utah, UNLV and New Mexico. Those four teams are BYU's main competition for a MWC regular-season title. BYU will get help from its 68-63 winover Utah State, which is the Aggies' only loss of the season.
UAB [16-8 (6-3), RPI: 33, SOS: 28] The Blazers, who haven't beaten an RPI top-50 opponent, are a fringe bubble candidate at best. But UAB seems to be thesecond-best team in Conference USA, and might have to beat league leader Memphis in Birmingham on Feb. 26 to have a realistic chance of earning an at-largebid. The Blazers played one of the country's tougher nonconference schedules, certainly more difficult than their computer rankings would indicate. UABlost at Butler, Louisville and Cincinnati and fell to Oklahoma and Boston College on neutral courts. But without an RPI top-50 victory, UAB's postseasonfate might rest on beating Memphis.
Utah State [23-1 (11-0), RPI: 32, SOS: 19 The Aggies keep winning and winning, and they take a 23-1 record into Thursday night's game at Idaho. UtahState's problem is that it has beaten only two opponents ranked inside the RPI top 100 (Utah and Boise State) and both victories came at home. Utah Stateis undefeated playing in the WAC, which ranks No. 12 in conference RPI ratings. The Aggies won't play another team ranked inside the RPI top-50 during theregular season but do have a Feb. 21 BracketBusters game against Saint Mary's to bolster their profile.
Siena [19-6 (13-1), RPI: 30, SOS: 51] The Saints lost at Rider 90-88 on Saturday, their first loss against a MAAC opponent. Siena rebounded to beat Loyola(Md.) 73-60 on Monday, its 14th victory in its last 16 games. Siena is still ranked inside the RPI top 30 because it played the country's second-toughestnonconference schedule, losing at Pittsburgh and Kansas and against Tennessee and Oklahoma State on neutral courts. But the Saints' best win came at RPINo. 68 Saint Joseph's on Dec. 28. In fact, all but six of their 19 victories came against opponents ranked outside the RPI top 100. Even with the inflatedcomputer numbers, Siena might not feel truly safe unless it wins its league tournament and the corresponding automatic NCAA bid.
Numbers alone won't save some teams
Mark Schlabach
ESPN.com
Editor's note: This file has been updated to include all games through Wednesday, Feb. 11.
It's an indication of how fluid the at-large environment is this season that this week's Bubble Watch welcomes only two members to "lock"status. Villanova, on the heels of convincing home wins over Syracuse and Marquette, joins the club as does Missouri. The Tigers turned the Big 12 marathoninto a three-team sprint to the finish line with a win at home over Kansas.
Many teams remain precariously placed on the Bubble, however, and with the regular season winding down, opportunities to earn signature wins are becoming rare.Georgetown and Wisconsin, despite suffering five- and six-game losing streaks respectively this season, still find themselves in the tourney mix based on theirgaudy computer numbers and daunting schedules. This time of year, however, the most valuable currency comes in the form of wins, and while the Badgers arestarting to get back on track with a three-game winning streak -- the Hoyas are in danger of fading out of the Bubble discussion altogether.
Here is this week's Bubble Watch:
Atlantic Coast Conference
Teams that should be in: Florida State
Work left to do: Maryland, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Miami (FL)
Third-ranked North Carolina took control of the ACC race (and a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament) by winning at Duke 101-87 on Wednesday night. Wake Forestonce seemed like a potential No. 1 seed, but it has suddenly lost four of its last six games, including a surprising 82-76 defeat at NC State on Wednesdaynight. Florida State moved a couple of steps closer to securing an at-large bid, and four other ACC teams remain in the hunt.
Florida State [19-5 (6-3), RPI: 20, SOS: 32] The Seminoles' patience with coach Leonard Hamilton is finally paying off. Thanks to its current three-gamewinning streak, FSU is poised to play in its first NCAA tournament since 1998. After rallying from a 19-point deficit in the second half to upset Clemson 65-61on the road Saturday (which improved FSU's record to 9-2 away from home), the Seminoles beat Virginia 68-57 in Tallahassee on Tuesday night. FSU improvedto 6-3 in ACC play and, barring a late-season collapse, should receive an at-large bid for the first time in Hamilton's seven seasons.
Maryland [15-8 (4-5), RPI: 74, SOS: 72] The Terrapins kept their fleeting at-large hopes alive with a 57-56 victory at Georgia Tech on Sunday. But Marylandstill seems to be in pretty big trouble after losing five of its last eight games. The Terps can get back into serious contention (or get eliminated fromat-large discussion altogether) in their next four games, starting with Saturday's home contest against Virginia Tech. After hosting the Hokies, the Terpstravel to Clemson and then play North Carolina and Duke in College Park. Maryland beat Michigan and Michigan State during nonconference play but have largelyfeasted on only the ACC's lesser teams. A 1-4 record in road games and 2-6 mark against RPI top-50 teams won't help, either.
Boston College [18-8 (6-5), RPI: 51, SOS: 48] After winning five games in a row to get back into at-large contention, the Eagles were beaten soundly in theirlast two games. Boston College was routed 93-76 at Wake Forest on Sunday, and then lost to Clemson 87-77 at home on Tuesday night. Things won't get anyeasier Sunday night, when the Eagles host Duke in Chestnut Hill. The Eagles' 85-77 victory at North Carolina in their ACC opener will carry a lot of weightwith the NCAA selection committee, but they'll also have to overcome ugly losses to St. Louis and Harvard. Boston College might need a 9-7 finish in theACC to feel confident about securing an at-large bid.
Virginia Tech [16-7 (6-3), RPI: 43, SOS: 46] The Hokies avoided a huge setback by rallying from an 18-point deficit in the final 14 minutes against NC State onSunday before winning 91-87 in overtime. Virginia Tech followed that comeback with a 76-71 victory over Georgia Tech on Wednesday night, which improved itsrecord to 6-3 against ACC foes. The Hokies split two games against fellow ACC bubble team Boston College and beat Wake Forest and Miami. The Hokies don'thave a lot to show from their nonconference schedule, other than not-so-great losses to Georgia and Seton Hall. Virginia Tech plays three of its next fourgames on the road, starting Saturday at Maryland.
Miami (FL) [15-8 (4-6), RPI: 42, SOS: 13] The Hurricanes squandered a golden opportunity to get on the right side of the bubble last week, blowing a 16-pointlead in the second half against Duke on Saturday before losing 78-75 in overtime. Miami has lost four of its last five games, but its lone victory during theslump was a 79-52 rout of Wake Forest on Feb. 4. Miami is 4-6 in the ACC heading into Sunday night's game against North Carolina. The Hurricanes need tokeep their heads above water in their next three games (after playing the Tar Heels, they play at Florida State and host Boston College), before finishing theregular season with games against the ACC's three worst teams. A finish of at least 8-8 would seem to be necessary for an at-large bid, so Miami can'tafford many more losses.
Locks
[Duke Blue Devils]
[North Carolina Tar Heels]
[Wake Forest Demon Deacons]
[Clemson Tigers]
Big East Conference
Work left to do: Providence, Cincinnati, Georgetown, Syracuse, West Virginia
Say hello to Villanova, which becomes the fifth Big East team to earn "lock" status by blasting Marquette 102-84 at home Tuesday night. Say goodbyeto Notre Dame, which becomes the country's most disappointing team with a seven-game losing streak and a 3-7 mark in Big East play. If Georgetowndoesn't turn its season around quickly, it will join the not-so-Fighting Irish on a growing list of underachievers.
Providence [15-9 (7-5), RPI: 64, SOS: 44] The Friars' résumé looks a lot like what Cincinnati will put before the NCAA selection committee. But Providenceowns the tiebreaker, having beaten the Bearcats twice last month. The Friars are 3-5 against RPI top-50 foes (they also beat Syracuse 100-94 at home Jan. 2
,and each of their nine losses came against an opponent ranked No. 77 or better in the RPI ratings. With a 7-5 record in Big East play, Providence can get to 10wins by beating slumping Notre Dame and sweeping two games against Rutgers. The Friars also play road games at Louisville and Villanova and a home game againstPittsburgh, so there's little room for error.Cincinnati [17-8 (7-5), RPI: 49, SOS: 29] The Bearcats' next four games -- at Pittsburgh, home against Louisville and West Virginia, and at Syracuse --will go a long way in determining whether they're legitimate at-large candidates. Cincinnati has won five of its last six games, including a 71-61 victoryover St. John's on Wednesday night. The Bearcats swept two games against Georgetown and also have so-so victories over UAB (home), Mississippi State(neutral court) and UNLV (road). Each of Cincinnati's eight losses came against opponents ranked No. 64 or better in the RPI ratings, but six of its 16wins came against foes ranked No. 200 or worse.
Georgetown [13-9 (4-7), RPI: 34, SOS: 2] If not for playing the country's second-toughest schedule, Georgetown probably wouldn't even be in theat-large discussion. The Hoyas are only 4-8 in their last 12 games, losing six of their last seven. Georgetown is 3-7 against RPI top-50 foes (wins atConnecticut and home against Memphis and Syracuse) and is 1-5 on the road. Four of Georgetown's final seven regular-season games will be played away fromhome, and it will have to beat at least two of the Big East's better teams (at Syracuse and Villanova and home against Marquette and Louisville) to haveany chance of finishing 9-9 in league play. History suggests the Hoyas aren't done yet. The 2000-01 Georgia team finished 16-14, losing seven of its last10 games, but still made the NCAA tournament field largely because it played the country's toughest schedule.
Syracuse [18-7 (6-6), RPI: 22, SOS: 21] The Orange's computer numbers are still very good, but they have to start winning some games. Syracuse has lost sixof its last eight games, including a 63-49 loss at Connecticut on Wednesday night. The Orange dropped to 6-6 in Big East play, and they've beaten only oneleague foe (West Virginia) in contention for an NCAA at-large bid. Syracuse's victories at Memphis and against Kansas (neutral court) are looking betterand better each week. The Orange are 4-5 against RPI top-50 opponents, but their 6-6 mark in the last 12 games raises a red flag.
West Virginia [16-8 (5-6), RPI: 15, SOS: 6] The Mountaineers might seem to be safe based on their strong computer numbers, but those ratings are prettyinflated because they've played the country's sixth-toughest schedule. West Virginia is only 6-6 in its last 12 games, losing four of its last six,including a 70-59 loss at Pittsburgh on Monday night. The Mountaineers are 2-7 against RPI top-50 opponents, and one of their victories (Georgetown) isn'tcarrying as much weight as it once did. The good news: West Virginia's toughest stretch will be over after Friday night's home game against Villanova.The Mountaineers play only one of the Big East's top seven teams (Louisville) in their final six regular-season games, although a Feb. 26 road game atCincinnati (coach Bob Huggins' old school) might prove to be pretty significant.
Locks
[Connecticut Huskies]
[Louisville Cardinals]
[Pittsburgh Panthers]
[Villanova Wildcats]
[Marquette Golden Eagles]
Big Ten Conference
Teams that should be in: Purdue, Minnesota, Ohio State, Illinois
Work left to do: Penn State, Michigan, Wisconsin
Illinois and Ohio State might have made up more ground than any other teams in the country over the last few weeks, and both teams seem very close to lockingup at-large spots. Purdue seemed close to doing that before losing forward Robbie Hummel to a back injury. Wisconsin is back on the way up, but Michigan andPenn State are now fading fast.
Purdue [18-6 (7-4), RPI: 31, SOS: 47] The Boilermakers finally won without Robbie Hummel on Wednesday night, beating Penn State 61-47 at home. Purdue clearlyisn't the same team without Hummel, the preseason Big Ten Player of the Year, who has missed the last three games with a stress fracture in his lower back.Hummel, who averages 12.9 points and 7.5 rebounds, hasn't played since a 67-49 win over Michigan on Jan. 31. The Boilermakers are 6-1 against Big Ten foeswhen Hummel plays; they're 1-3 without him (Hummel also missed a 67-64 loss at Penn State on Jan. 6). The NCAA selection committee will considerHummel's absence when evaluating the Boilermakers, who still seem to be in very good shape for an at-large bid. They won at Minnesota and beat Davidson ona neutral court, and four of their six losses came against teams ranked No. 15 or better in the RPI.
Minnesota [19-5 (7-5), RPI: 28, SOS: 55] The Gophers ended a two-game losing streak with a 62-54 victory over Indiana on Tuesday night. Minnesota faces a pairof potentially dangerous road traps the next two games, at Penn State on Saturday and at Michigan on Feb. 19. If Minnesota can win both road games, it wouldmove pretty close to "lock" status. The Gophers are 7-5 in their last 12 games and have solid wins over Louisville (neutral court), Illinois (home)and Ohio State (home). Minnesota's only questionable defeat was a 74-65 loss at Northwestern on Jan. 18.
Ohio State [17-5 (7-4), RPI: 21, SOS: 37] The Buckeyes have won four games in a row to move into a three-way tie for second place in the Big Ten standings.Coach Thad Matta's young team is hitting its stride at the right time of the season, winning eight of its last 12 games. The Buckeyes are 4-5 against RPItop-50 teams, and their 54-51 victory over Butler on Dec. 13 will carry a lot of weight with the selection committee. So will Big Ten victories over Purdue andMinnesota. Ohio State needs to finish strong to improve its seeding, which won't be easy. It plays four of its last seven games on the road and has homegames against Illinois and Penn State.
Illinois [19-5 (7-4), RPI: 14, SOS: 27] The Illini will probably move to "lock" status if they win their next two games, at Northwestern on Thursdaynight and at Indiana on Sunday. Illinois is 8-4 in its last 12 games and 5-4 against RPI top-50 opponents. The Illini beat Purdue 66-48 on Sunday, their secondvictory over the Boilermakers this season. Illinois also beat Missouri (neutral court) and Ohio State (home), and each of its five losses came against teamsranked No. 52 or better in the RPI ratings. After playing two of the Big Ten's lesser teams, the Illini face a difficult five-game stretch -- two gamesagainst Penn State sandwiched around a road game at Ohio State and home games against Minnesota and Michigan State -- to finish the regular season.
Penn State [17-8 (6-6), RPI: 81, SOS: 128] After winning four games in a row, the Nittany Lions have dropped three straight, including a 61-47 defeat at Purdueon Wednesday night. At this point, Penn State's at-large chances are on life support. It can show the NCAA selection committee only two really solidvictories -- at Michigan State and home against Purdue -- and a so-so win over Michigan at home. There really isn't much else to the Nittany Lions'body of work. Their nonconference schedule ranks No. 329 in the country, and their best non-Big Ten victory came against RPI No. 123 Mount St. Mary's(which really doesn't say much for Georgia Tech). Penn State still plays Illinois twice and Ohio State once, and it might need to win two of those games tokeep its fleeting at-large hopes alive.
Michigan [15-10 (5-7), RPI: 54, SOS: 12] The Wolverines have defeated three of college basketball's better teams (Duke, Illinois and UCLA), but theyhaven't beaten enough of the rest. Now, Michigan is in serious trouble after losing seven of its last nine games. Winning one of the last two games,against No. 1 Connecticut and No. 9 Michigan State, obviously would have helped tremendously. The Wolverines lost to Ohio State twice and fell to Wisconsin andPurdue. Michigan plays the Boilermakers and Badgers again and faces Minnesota twice.
Wisconsin [15-9 (6-6), RPI: 29, SOS: 4] The Badgers are back in the bubble discussion after winning their last three games, including a 69-52 victory over Iowaon Wednesday night, to get back to 6-6 in Big Ten play. Wisconsin's computer numbers are very good because they've played the country'sfourth-toughest schedule, losing games to Connecticut (neutral court), Marquette (road) and Texas (home). The Badgers beat Illinois 63-50 on Feb. 5 and willget help from their 74-72 victory at Virginia Tech on Dec. 1. But they might need at least one or two more signature victories to bolster their at-largechances. Wisconsin will have ample opportunities in its last six regular-season games, which include road trips to Michigan State and Minnesota and a home gameagainst Ohio State.
Locks
[Michigan State Spartans]
Big 12 Conference
Work left to do: Kansas State, Nebraska, Texas
By winning its last four games, including a 62-60 victory over Kansas on Monday, Missouri joins Oklahoma and the Jayhawks as "locks" to receive NCAAat-large bids. The rest of the Big 12 is a mess. Texas finally got back on track with a rout of Oklahoma State, and Nebraska and Kansas State have come out ofnowhere to get back into contention. But Baylor, Oklahoma State and Texas A&M are fading fast and are out of the bubble picture for now. The Bears andAggies play in Waco on Saturday. The winner might move back into the bubble race; the loser might be done altogether.
Kansas State [17-7 (6-4), RPI: 72, SOS: 96] After starting Big 12 play with four consecutive losses, the Wildcats have worked themselves back into contentionwith a six-game winning streak. Kansas State beat Texas Tech 85-73 on Wednesday night, which moved it into fourth place in the Big 12 standings. But theWildcats might have to finish 10-6 in the Big 12 to have a legitimate chance at earning an at-large bid. Kansas State did nothing even remotely impressiveduring nonconference play, losing to Kentucky, Iowa and Oregon. In fact, eight of its 10 nonconference victories against Division I opponents came againstteams ranked No. 150 or worse in the RPI ratings. With that kind of résumeé, the Wildcats will probably need more than victories over Missouri and Texas toshow the selection committee.
Nebraska [15-7 (5-4), RPI: 69, SOS: 61] The Cornhuskers' body of work looks similar to Kansas State's résumeacute;. Nebraska's best victories cameagainst Missouri and Texas, and it has won three games in a row to get back into the bubble picture. But Nebraska still has much work to do. Like the Wildcats,the Cornhuskers have little to show from their nonconference schedule. They have a so-so victory over Creighton, but six of their 10 nonconference wins cameagainst teams ranked No. 200 or lower in the RPI ratings. Worse, Nebraska lost to RPI No. 212 UMBC 66-64 on Dec. 23.
Texas [16-7 (5-4), RPI: 37, SOS: 3
The Longhorns ended a three-game losing streak by blasting Oklahoma State 99-74 in Austin on Tuesday night. The victorymoved Texas back above .500 in Big 12 play and leaves it in pretty decent shape for an at-large bid. The Longhorns will get a lot of mileage from theirvictories over UCLA and Villanova, two of their five victories over RPI top-50 opponents. But Texas really hasn't done much during Big 12 play, beatingslumping Baylor and Texas A&M and the league's lesser teams. The Longhorns lost to Big 12 leader Oklahoma and fellow bubble teams Kansas State andNebraska. The Longhorns play consecutive road games in three days, at Colorado on Saturday and at Texas A&M on Monday.Locks
[Missouri Tigers]
[Oklahoma Sooners]
[Kansas Jayhawks]
Pacific-10 Conference
Teams that should be in: Arizona State
Work left to do: Arizona, USC, California
Not much has changed in the Pac-10 -- UCLA and Washington seem to be the league's two best teams. Arizona State got back on track, albeit with victoriesover rebuilding Oregon and Oregon State. The Pac-10 race will begin to shake out this week, after UCLA and USC play each of the Arizona schools.
Arizona State [18-5 (7-4), RPI: 41, SOS: 101] The Sun Devils put their season back on track last week by doing what NCAA tournament-worthy teams are supposedto do -- easily win road games against rebuilding programs such as Oregon and Oregon State. Arizona State has one really good victory (at UCLA) and two solidwins (BYU and San Diego State). The Sun Devils are 3-3 against RPI top-50 foes and 7-5 against top-100 opponents. They have a 6-2 record on the road but canprobably lock up an at-large spot at home. Arizona State plays its next three games at home, starting with Thursday night's contest against UCLA andfollowed by visits from USC and Arizona. If the Sun Devils win at least two of those games, they can feel awfully good about their postseason prospects.
Arizona [16-8 (6-5), RPI: 53, SOS: 69] The Wildcats stayed in the bubble discussion last week by winning road games at Oregon State and Oregon. Arizona couldreally help itself by winning at least one of its next two home games, against USC on Thursday night and UCLA on Saturday. The Wildcats have two nonconferencevictories (Kansas at home and Gonzaga on a neutral court) that will catch the committee's eyes, along with home wins over Washington and San Diego State.But with its upcoming home games against the California schools and road trips to Arizona State and Washington looming, the Wildcats still have work to do.
USC [15-7 (6-4), RPI: 40, SOS: 23] The Trojans haven't played since they lost badly at rival UCLA 76-60 on Feb. 4. USC faces a really important four-gamestretch, starting Thursday night at Arizona. After playing the Wildcats, the Trojans play at Arizona State on Sunday and play home games next week againstWashington State and Washington. The Trojans really need some quality wins to feel confident about their at-large chances. USC is only 2-5 against RPI top-50teams, with both wins coming during Pac-10 play (home victories over California and Arizona State). USC played a difficult nonconference schedule, but lost toOklahoma on the road and against Missouri and Seton Hall on neutral courts. In fact, USC's best nonconference victory was a 61-57 win over RPI No. 92 NorthDakota State.
California [18-6 (7-4), RPI: 27, SOS: 4
If not for the Bears' January slide, in which they lost four of their last five games in a two-week span, theymight have already locked up an at-large spot. California turned it around last week by sweeping home games against Washington (its second victory over theHuskies) and Washington State. Along with the win over Washington, Cal has an impressive road victory at Utah and home wins against Arizona State and Arizona.The Bears are 4-4 against RPI top-50 teams and should be in good shape if they take care of upcoming games against Stanford at home and Oregon and Oregon Stateon the road.Locks
[UCLA Bruins]
[Washington Huskies]
Southeastern Conference
Teams that should be in: LSU
Work left to do: Kentucky, South Carolina, Florida, Tennessee
Finally, the SEC has a team that seems worthy of earning an NCAA at-large bid. Surprisingly, it's not Tennessee, Florida or Kentucky, which seemed to bethe league's best teams earlier this season. LSU, behind first-year coach Trent Johnson, moved to 8-1 in the SEC West with a 97-94 double-overtime victoryat Mississippi State on Wednesday night. Just as importantly, Kentucky stayed on the bubble with a 68-65 victory over Florida on Tuesday night.
LSU [20-4 (8-1), RPI: 46, SOS: 113] While the Tigers' RPI numbers suggest they still have some work to do, they took complete control of the SEC West withWednesday night's 97-94 victory in double overtime at Mississippi State. LSU is 2-3 against RPI top-50 opponents, and nine of their 20 victories cameagainst teams ranked outside the RPI top 200. But the Tigers won at Tennessee, beat South Carolina at home and swept games against Mississippi State, whichshould be enough in the mediocre SEC. The Tigers still play Florida at home and Kentucky on the road, and a victory in either game would probably secure anat-large spot.
Kentucky [17-7 (6-3), RPI: 62, SOS: 85] Jodie Meeks' late 3-pointer against Florida on Tuesday night might have saved Kentucky's NCAA at-large hopes.The 68-65 victory over Florida gave the Wildcats their third victory over an RPI top-50 opponent and kept them from losing three consecutive SEC games at RuppArena for the first time in their storied history. Kentucky still has some work to do, as their mediocre RPI numbers would suggest. The Wildcats are 3-4against RPI top-50 teams, and eight of their 17 victories have come against opponents ranked outside the RPI top 200. Kentucky plays four of its last sevengames on the road, including Saturday's game at struggling Arkansas. The Wildcats also play fellow bubble teams South Carolina and Florida on the road andplay Tennessee and LSU at home.
South Carolina [17-5 (6-3), RPI: 44, SOS: 83] As expected, the Gamecocks beat Georgia 79-68 on the road on Saturday. But South Carolina might have receivedmore help from Charleston's 77-75 victory at Davidson on Saturday. Before the Cougars' upset of the Wildcats, South Carolina's 82-80 loss inovertime against Charleston on Nov. 28 looked like a big blemish on its resume. The Gamecocks have only one victory against an RPI top-50 opponent, 70-69 overFlorida on Jan. 21. Unfortunately, the SEC schedule won't help much in terms of schedule strength, with only one remaining opponent (Tennessee) currentlyranked in the RPI top 60. Because of its weak schedule strength, South Carolina might need at least a 10-6 finish in SEC play to have a real chance at anat-large bid.
Florida [19-5 (6-3), RPI: 35, SOS: 103] Somebody from the SEC has to go to the NCAA tournament, and the Gators are in better shape than most of theleague's other teams. But if Florida played in another conference, it would probably be just a very average team this season. The Gators are 2-4 againstRPI top-50 opponents and 2-4 on the road. They beat Washington on a neutral court and South Carolina at home. Really, that's about it as far as qualitywins. In fact, nine of Florida's 19 wins came against opponents ranked No. 200 or worse in the RPI, including four foes ranked No. 300 or worse. Floridawould have helped itself by finishing at Kentucky on Tuesday night, but the Wildcats won 68-65 on Jodie Meeks' late 3-pointer.
Tennessee [15-8 (6-3), RPI: 24, SOS: 3] Based on their five victories over RPI top-50 teams, and the fact they've played the country's third-toughestschedule, the Volunteers are still in pretty good shape for an at-large bid. But Tennessee remains one of the sport's most maddening teams. After blowingout Florida and beating Arkansas on the road, the Vols lost at Auburn 78-77 on Saturday. Tennessee recovered to blow out Georgia 79-48 on Wednesday night, butthe Bulldogs haven't beaten anyone during SEC play. The Vols are far too talented to have eight losses, but unless they completely collapse down thestretch, they should be pretty safe.
Atlantic 10 Conference
Teams that should be in: Dayton
The A-10 is suddenly a three-team race after Xavier dropped its last two road games, including a 71-58 loss at Dayton on Tuesday night. Saint Joseph'scurrently sits in first place with a 7-1 record in league play, but the Hawks lost at Dayton and haven't yet played Xavier. With losses at Holy Cross andAlabama, Saint Joe's hasn't done enough yet to garner serious at-large consideration. But by beating the Musketeers, the Flyers moved much closer tolocking up an at-large bid.
Dayton [22-3 (8-2), RPI: 25, SOS: 126] The Flyers probably put themselves on the right side of the bubble by blowing out No. 14 Xavier 71-58 at home onWednesday night. It is Dayton's second victory over an RPI Top-25 opponent; the Flyers beat Marquette 89-75 on a neutral court on Nov. 29. Dayton also hasso-so victories over George Mason, Miami (Ohio) and Saint Joseph's. If Dayton hadn't gotten caught looking ahead last week -- how else to explain a79-66 loss at RPI No. 180 Charlotte on Sunday -- it might have locked up an at-large spot. Dayton moved into a second-place tie with Xavier in the Atlantic 10standings. The teams play again in Cincinnati on March 5.
Locks
[Xavier Musketeers]
Other at-large contenders
Teams that should be in: Davidson, Utah
Work left to do: Saint Mary's, UNLV, San Diego State, Brigham Young, UAB, Utah State, Siena
With three wins over RPI top-50 opponents, Gonzaga still seems like a safe bet for an NCAA at-large bid. But the Bulldogs sure didn't put up much of afight in their 68-50 loss to Memphis on Saturday night. Davidson and Siena also suffered tough losses, too, leaving them little room for error down thestretch.
Davidson [20-4 (13-1), RPI: 50, SOS: 144] The Wildcats had their 43-game winning streak against Southern Conference opponents end with a 77-75 loss toCharleston at home Saturday. Davidson blew a 14-point lead in the second half of the loss, which ended its 10-game winning streak. The Wildcats don't havegreat computer numbers and have only one victory over an RPI top-50 opponent (West Virginia). But with Stephen Curry leading the country in scoring, and givenwhat the Wildcats accomplished in the 2008 NCAA tournament, it's hard to imagine their being left out of the 65-team field. That being said, Davidsonprobably can't afford another loss in conference play to feel really confident about its chances.
Utah [17-7 (8-2), RPI: 11, SOS: 11] The Utes stayed in first place in the Mountain West with a 67-55 victory over San Diego State at home Wednesday night. TheUtes have won five games in a row and have a one-game lead over the Aztecs and New Mexico in the MWC standings. Utah seems pretty close to securing an at-largebid after playing one of the country's most difficult schedules. The Utes are 4-4 against RPI top-50 teams, having beaten BYU, Gonzaga, LSU and San DiegoState. Utah lost at Oklahoma and Utah State and fell to California at home. Utah still plays MWC contender UNLV at home and plays road games at BYU and NewMexico, so its work isn't completely done.
Saint Mary's [19-4 (6-3), RPI: 59, SOS: 232] The Gaels' struggles without sophomore Patty Mills continue, as they've lost three of four gameswithout their star point guard. Saint Mary's will probably be without Mills until at least the last week of the regular season. The NCAA selectioncommittee will consider his injury when deciding St. Mary's fate, but it can't afford to completely collapse without him. But that's what SaintMary's has done over the last two weeks, losing to RPI No. 197 Santa Clara 70-52 on Saturday. The Gaels play Gonzaga on Thursday night and really can'tafford to lose badly.
UNLV [18-6 (6-4), RPI: 52, SOS: 93] The Rebels ended their two-game skid with a 71-57 victory over TCU on Tuesday night. UNLV beat BYU (road) and Utah (home)last month and will get a lot of mileage from its 56-55 victory at Louisville on Dec. 31. The Rebels' 79-64 rout of Arizona in Las Vegas on Dec. 20 islooking better and better. UNLV does have two unsightly losses -- 80-73 at TCU and 71-69 at Colorado State.
San Diego State [17-6 (7-3), RPI: 47, SOS: 62] The Aztecs' bubble hopes took a big blow Wednesday night with the loss at Utah. San Diego State could haveswept the regular-season series from the Utes and tied them for first place in the Mountain West standings. Instead, San Diego State fell one game behind theUtes and failed to win a second game against an RPI Top-25 opponent. San Diego State just doesn't have much on its résumé. Its best nonconference victorycame against RPI No. 169 San Diego, and eight of its 15 victories against Division I foes came against teams ranked No. 200 or worse in the RPI ratings.
Brigham Young [18-5 (6-3), RPI: 39, SOS: 68] The Cougars stay in the picture with convincing wins over Air Force and Colorado State. BYU remains in fourthplace in the highly competitive Mountain West, and might need to avenge a couple of its first-half losses to remain in the hunt. BYU beat San Diego State butlost games to Utah, UNLV and New Mexico. Those four teams are BYU's main competition for a MWC regular-season title. BYU will get help from its 68-63 winover Utah State, which is the Aggies' only loss of the season.
UAB [16-8 (6-3), RPI: 33, SOS: 28] The Blazers, who haven't beaten an RPI top-50 opponent, are a fringe bubble candidate at best. But UAB seems to be thesecond-best team in Conference USA, and might have to beat league leader Memphis in Birmingham on Feb. 26 to have a realistic chance of earning an at-largebid. The Blazers played one of the country's tougher nonconference schedules, certainly more difficult than their computer rankings would indicate. UABlost at Butler, Louisville and Cincinnati and fell to Oklahoma and Boston College on neutral courts. But without an RPI top-50 victory, UAB's postseasonfate might rest on beating Memphis.
Utah State [23-1 (11-0), RPI: 32, SOS: 19
The Aggies keep winning and winning, and they take a 23-1 record into Thursday night's game at Idaho. UtahState's problem is that it has beaten only two opponents ranked inside the RPI top 100 (Utah and Boise State) and both victories came at home. Utah Stateis undefeated playing in the WAC, which ranks No. 12 in conference RPI ratings. The Aggies won't play another team ranked inside the RPI top-50 during theregular season but do have a Feb. 21 BracketBusters game against Saint Mary's to bolster their profile.Siena [19-6 (13-1), RPI: 30, SOS: 51] The Saints lost at Rider 90-88 on Saturday, their first loss against a MAAC opponent. Siena rebounded to beat Loyola(Md.) 73-60 on Monday, its 14th victory in its last 16 games. Siena is still ranked inside the RPI top 30 because it played the country's second-toughestnonconference schedule, losing at Pittsburgh and Kansas and against Tennessee and Oklahoma State on neutral courts. But the Saints' best win came at RPINo. 68 Saint Joseph's on Dec. 28. In fact, all but six of their 19 victories came against opponents ranked outside the RPI top 100. Even with the inflatedcomputer numbers, Siena might not feel truly safe unless it wins its league tournament and the corresponding automatic NCAA bid.
- Jun 25, 2008
- 2,714
- 10
DYSON OUT FOR THE YEAR!! DAMNNNNNN
Hopefully he comes back for the tourney somehow .. I love his game. UConn had a legit chance to win it all IDK about that now. More mins for Kemba and Austriebut that's a major loss.
Hopefully he comes back for the tourney somehow .. I love his game. UConn had a legit chance to win it all IDK about that now. More mins for Kemba and Austriebut that's a major loss.
- Feb 5, 2004
- 4,104
- 12
Losing Dyson is gonna hurt... Every time I watched UCONN he was killin people.
- Apr 24, 2005
- 43,678
- 8,689
What year is Dyson?
- Sep 14, 2008
- 933
- 12
Harangody and Dominic James' hair piss me off
- Jul 1, 2007
- 1,393
- 10
Junior
- Feb 5, 2004
- 4,104
- 12
4 pts in 8 minutes
- Jun 10, 2004
- 6,996
- 127
Louisville looks awful.
- Apr 16, 2005
- 16,095
- 16,846
yeah losing Dyson is going to hurt but I have a feeling Stanley Robinson/Walker/Craig but mainly Robinson is going raise his game to make up for it. Watch AJPrice go off for 20 and 7 each game now.
- Jan 27, 2001
- 13,094
- 2,121
AO is hurt up so I'll give him a pass.
The program will DEFINITELY be better off when Harris and Devo leave.
And yeah, Donte would have been a difference-maker. But that's exactly why so many people hated him for leaving. Cuz it was a stupid move on his part. Whatexactly is dude doing right now in Sacto? NOTHING.
- Nov 15, 2007
- 7,908
- 2,188
I don't think it's that big a loss That really all depends on how Kemba does though, he needs to regain his early season form.Originally Posted by JamesOnNT
DYSON OUT FOR THE YEAR!! DAMNNNNNN
Hopefully he comes back for the tourney somehow .. I love his game. UConn had a legit chance to win it all IDK about that now. More mins for Kemba and Austrie but that's a major loss.
- Mar 14, 2005
- 6,807
- 2,211
This is a massacre
- Feb 5, 2004
- 4,104
- 12
I had a feeling we was going to get beat... but not this bad. WOW!!
- Jun 25, 2008
- 2,714
- 10
- Jun 8, 2006
- 10,056
- 10
Dyson is a huge loss.
Craftsy-- i have no idea about that kid, can't help.
Craftsy-- i have no idea about that kid, can't help.
- Dec 27, 2002
- 16,335
- 13
- Nov 15, 2007
- 7,908
- 2,188
Is it possible to stop Harangody? The man is a savage, if his team has a single other player who wasn't a piece of $!#@ they wouldn't be in thispredictment. Sad cause he took his game to another level this year.
And I have never understood the hype for Earl Clark dudes game has never impressed me. I agree with KLJ this Lousiville team is a first or 2nd round exit.
And I have never understood the hype for Earl Clark dudes game has never impressed me. I agree with KLJ this Lousiville team is a first or 2nd round exit.
- Feb 5, 2004
- 4,104
- 12
- Jun 8, 2006
- 10,056
- 10
Louisvile's D will get them to the Sweet 16, after that point they'll need to be productive offensively to advance each round.
- Nov 15, 2007
- 7,908
- 2,188
I don't see it. They are stuggling to score on Notre Dame
- Jun 8, 2006
- 10,056
- 10
How could ESPN possibly let Digger call an ND game?
- Feb 5, 2004
- 4,104
- 12
I really wish this game would hurry up and get over
Horrible play on both sides for us.
Horrible play on both sides for us.
