| [h1]Twenty questions as Midnight Madness opens the hoops season[/h1] |
The fact is, even the best teams have nagging questions they need to answer as practice gets underway. Therefore, I am once again performing my annual Hoop Thoughts community service by identifying the primary questions facing 20 of the most prominent programs in America. Keep in mind this is not my (or SI's) official top 20. Those rankings are still to come in our season preview issue. (And frankly, you should go stand by your mailbox until it shows up.) Get back to me on April 6 in Detroit to see how well these teams answered my 20 Questions. Herewith: Arizona State: Can Jeff Pendergraph stay on the floor? Optimism is soaring this season in Tempe thanks to the decision of 6-foot-5 sophomore guard James Harden to forego the NBA draft and return to school. But the other half of the Sun Devils' inside-outside duo is pretty good, too. Pendergraph, a 6-foot-9 senior, is a sturdy, skilled post man who averaged 12.4 points and 6.4 boards last season. The problem is, he also averaged just 26.3 minutes. That's because he tends to play with too much emotion, which often leads to foul trouble. (He fouled out five times.) Last year, Arizona State, which barely missed out on an NCAA tournament bid after finishing tied for fifth in the Pac-10, was one of the sleeper hits of the season. It's not sleeping anymore, which means its opponents will be a lot more geared up to play them. To meet that challenge, you need a legitimate post option, and unless 6-10 junior center Eric Boateng has undergone a dramatic transformation in the offseason, Pendergraph is the only inside threat Arizona State has. If he can keep producing good numbers without getting into foul trouble, the Sun Devils can challenge UCLA for supremacy in the west. Connecticut: Who's going to play for this team? It's unusual for a team that is ranked in the top five of every national preseason poll to have so many roster questions on the first day of practice. Stanley Robinson, the dynamic 6-9 forward from Birmingham, Ala., is academically ineligible and is not currently enrolled in school. Ater Majok, a 6-10 freshman with terrific perimeter skills, is still home in his native Australia waiting for a green light from the NCAA's clearinghouse. And Nate Miles, the 6-7 freshman swingman whom Jim Calhoun has been raving about, is awaiting a ruling on his appeal after being expelled from school earlier this month for violating a court restraining order. All three could suit up for the Huskies in the second semester. Or maybe none of them will. Right now, we just don't know. None of those guys is at the heart of why UConn is considered a favorite to win a national championship, but the Huskies need depth beyond their core nucleus of A.J. Price, Jeff Adrien, Hasheem Thabeet and Jerome Dyson. The good news is the member of the limbo trio the team needs most, Robinson, is also the one most likely to be in uniform come January. He's the kind of player who can make the difference between a Sweet 16 and a Final Four. Duke: Will Greg Paulus come off the bench -- and be happy about it? It's not often a three-year starter who's had a pretty solid career finds himself overtaken at his position in his senior year. But as good as Paulus has been -- and for much of the last two years, he has been Duke's best player -- 6-2 sophomore Nolan Smith might be even better. Smith, who averaged 5.9 points last season in a reserve role, is much more capable of getting his own shot than Paulus is. More important, he is a far superior on-the-ball defender. The Blue Devils' potent fast break begins with ball pressure, and there's just no question Smith does a better job applying it than Paulus. Of course, Smith has to prove himself worthy of being promoted, but should that happen, it will put Paulus in an awkward situation. This season presents Paulus' last chance to prove he can play in the NBA. He has been the star quarterback (in football and basketball) all his life, so if Coach K decides starting Smith is what's best for this team, it will surely hurt Paulus' pride. If he can deal with it like a man, he can still have a great senior year -- and Duke will be a better team. Georgetown: Just how good is Chris Wright? When I mentioned to Hoyas coach John Thompson III over the summer that I thought Wright was one of the best players nobody knew about, he replied, "Don't tell 'em." Sorry, coach, the secret's about to get out. The 6-1 sophomore point guard missed 18 games last season with a foot injury, but he looked very impressive when he returned for the final five games of the season. Now, with Jonathan Wallace having graduated, Wright, who was a McDonald's All-America in high school, has a great chance to be the Hoyas' starting point guard. So how good is he? Well, we know he's good enough to spook Jeremiah Rivers, last year's backup, into transferring to Indiana. Wright might also be better than Wallace, who, after all, began his college career as a walk-on. Georgetown fans are no doubt concerned about replacing 7-2 center Roy Hibbert, but if Wright can remain healthy and effective, I think you'll see a Hoyas team that is quicker and better than it was a year ago. Kansas: Who are these guys? Fielding a roster full of unknowns is a small price to pay for winning a national championship, but that is what Kansas will have to do this year. The Jayhawks have only two players back who logged significant playing time last season, and one of them, 6-11 sophomore Cole Aldrich, only played 8.3 minutes per game. That means Bill Self has to replace 83 percent of the points and rebounds from last year, and 80 percent of that team's assists. Therefore, you can expect this team to stumble out of the gate like it did in 2005-06, when the Jayhawks began the season 3-4. But considering that team ended up 25-8 and in the NCAA tournament, Jayhawks fans can afford to be patient. The good news is, Self has brought in a lot of new players who are good enough to make an impact right away. The best of the bunch is juco transfer Mario Little, a big guard (6-5) whose athleticism will fit nicely into Self's up-tempo system. At least one, if not both of the freshman Morris twins, Markieff and Marcus, will start up front. Another juco transfer, Tyrone Appleton, is a prolific scorer who should nicely complement junior point guard Sherron Collins. All good possibilities, but until we actually see these guys in action, we won't really know what Kansas has and how good it can be. 
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| Seth Davis | > | HOOP THOUGHTS  |
| [h1]20 Questions, Midnight Madness edition (cont.)[/h1] |
The Wildcats had no shortage of drama last season, from the debacle against Gardener Webb to Alex Legion's decision to transfer to the late surge that produced a 12-4 record in the SEC, only to be upended by the season-ending foot injury to freshman forward Patrick Patterson at the end of February. Now they need a little more even keel. Patterson appears to be fully healthy, as does 6-4 junior guard Jodie Meeks, who had offseason surgery to repair a sports hernia. That's a good start. Position wise, the biggest question is point guard. UK lost three very good guards in Joe Crawford and Ramel Bradley, who graduated, and 6-6 junior Derrick Jasper, who transferred to UNLV. I was truly shocked at Jasper's decision to leave because coach Billy Gillispie had consistently said Jasper was the team's most important player. Right now there are three possibilities for floor leader: 6-2 junior Michael Porter, who averaged just 15.4 minutes last season; 6-6 freshman DeAndre Liggins, who played forward much of his high school career; and 6-6 juco transfer Kevin Galloway. The ideal scenario would be for Galloway to emerge as the guy. Louisville: Do the Cardinals have the character to win it all? Louisville's character problem last year was primarily a Caracter problem -- as in Derrick Caracter, the 6-9 power forward whose immaturity created a constant distraction while Rick Pitino kept suspending and reinstating him for various reasons. After the season ended, Pitino essentially forced Caracter out of the program, a move that was easier to do knowing that 6-8 freshman forward Samardo Samuels, arguably Pitino's best recruit at Louisville, was on his way. Louisville is flush with talent, but still a little low on some intangibles. Junior point guard Edgar Sosa, who had a terrific freshman year but spent much of last season in Pitino's doghouse for poor defense, needs to take a big step forward. Earl Clark, a 6-9 junior, probably has the most upside of any player on the Cardinals' roster, but he has to play with more consistency. Senior forward Terrence Williams, who injured his knee this week and will be out four to six weeks, is a terrific passer but he sometimes lacks good shot selection. If the Cardinals' mental toughness and maturity can rise to match their physical talent, I expect to see them in Detroit in March. Marquette: How small can small ball get? It seems like every year in October, we're talking about Marquette's big problem -- or more accurately, its bigs problem. This year that problem is even, uh, bigger. The Golden Eagles' two starting forwards from last season, Ousmane Barro and Dan Fitzgerald, have graduated. The only remaining player taller than 6-8 is a freshman, Chris Otule, a 6-10 center who is considered a long-term project. The Eagles' most accomplished forward is Lazar Hayward, a 6-6 swingman who specializes in making three-pointers (he converted a team-best 45.1 percent from behind the line last year). Of course, Marquette will again boast the very formidable guard trio of Dominic James, Jerel McNeal and Wes Matthews, and that alone should make this team competitive in the Big East. McNeal especially had a great year last season, when he averaged 23 points and 6.1 rebounds over Marquette's final six games. As much as I respect those three guards, unless someone else gives Marquette a strong post presence, it will be hard for this team to play deep into the NCAA tournament. Memphis: Do the Tigers have another Rose ready to bloom? It's not easy replacing the NBA's number one overall draft pick (Derrick Rose), not to mention two other second-round picks (Chris Douglas-Roberts, Joey Dorsey) who formed the nucleus of an NCAA runner-up. But that task got a little easier when John Calipari received a commitment from freshman Tyreke Evans, a 6-6 scoring machine from Philadelphia who was a two-time Parade All-America. Evans' decision to come to Memphis will make this feel less like a rebuilding year, but because he is not a point guard, and because he won't be playing alongside the caliber of players that Rose did, it's unlikely he'll have the same impact as Rose did. It's unclear who will take over Rose's position at the point. The most obvious candidate might be Willie Kemp, the 6-2 junior whom Rose relegated to the bench after Kemp started as a freshman. Calipari has also said that senior guard Antonio Anderson might assume those duties. (Not a bad thought considering Anderson led Conference USA in assist-to-turnover ratio last year.) Then there's C.J. Henry, the 22-year-old former minor league baseball player who originally signed to play basketball for Kansas out of high school. The bottom line is you don't replace someone like Derrick Rose easily, but Memphis will have no choice but to try. Michigan State: Will the Spartans finally unleash their need for speed? For the last two years, Tom Izzo has promised his team would get back to the running style that defined his Final Four squads, yet somehow that hasn't happened. That is partly because the offense was centered around combo guard Drew Neitzel, who was more inclined to get his points in the halfcourt offense than lead a fast break like Mateen Cleaves. As good as Neitzel was, I think you could make a case that this team will be more effective with 6-foot sophomore Kalin Lucas running the point full time. Izzo calls Lucas the fastest player with the ball that he has ever coached, and now it's time for Izzo to set him free. Michigan State has plenty of athletic wings to keep pace, and in 6-8 freshman forward Delvon Roe, Izzo has recruited the type of tough, aggressive rebounder this team has lacked in the recent past. If this team can keep the running game going, there's no telling how far ahead of the Big Ten pack it can go. North Carolina: Have the Heels fixed their defensive problems? Finding something to question on this team is truly picking at nits, but it is worth noting that teams shot 42.6 percent from the floor against North Carolina last season. Kansas sank 53.1 percent of its shots in its win over UNC at the Final Four. The problem for North Carolina wasn't just an inability to stop dribble penetration. It was also the absence of an intimidating shot blocker to erase the mistakes of the perimeter defenders. From a personnel standpoint, the Heels are in a worse situation than they were last year on both of those fronts. Their best overall defender, 6-5 senior swingman Marcus Ginyard, will miss the next eight weeks because of a stress fracture in his left foot. Alex Stepheson, a 6-9 junior forward who provided some necessary inside muscle, transferred to USC. Roy Williams' freshman class includes two talented big men in Ed Davis and Tyler Zeller, but both are beanpole-thin. Of course, North Carolina has the best big man in the country in Tyler Hansbrough, and this team is probably going to lead the country in scoring. But at some point you have to shut down offenses in the halfcourt. The Heels need to improve on that front to win it all. Notre Dame: What new three-point line? Few teams in America put the three-point line to better use last season than Notre Dame. The team's second-leading scorer, Kyle McAlarney, made a ridiculous 44.1 percent from behind the arc, and as a team the Irish was ranked seventh in three-point percentage (40.5 percent) and 35th in threes made per game (8.3). This year, the line has been officially moved back a foot to the distance of 20 feet, 9 inches. If that mitigates Notre Dame's advantage, it could be a problem. It's doubtful the new line will affect McAlarney. A majority of his attempts last season probably came from at least that far out anyway. The team's other two top returning three-point shooters, however, are both forwards -- 6-7 senior Ryan Ayers (45.1 percent) and 6-10 senior Luke Zeller (38.1 percent) -- who don't have that same kind of range. It would also help if junior point guard Tory Jackson could improve on his 30.2 percent shooting from behind the arc. We all know Luke Harangody is going to receive plenty of attention from opposing defenses down low. If the Irish can make teams pay for overplaying the 'Gody even with the deeper line, they'll be awfully hard to beat. Oklahoma: What was Blake Griffin thinking? It is unconventional, to say the least, for a player to turn down the chance to be a lottery pick and return to school. So add one more reason to the list of reasons Griffin, a big, strong and active 6-10 sophomore, is so special. Besides averaging 14.7 points and 9.1 rebounds as a freshman (including 20.3 and 14.7 in his last seven games), Griffin showed impressive toughness when he missed just one game after each of his two knee injuries last year. He is a gym rat and self-starter who has a long and lucrative pro career ahead of him. So why did he come back to Norman? In the first place, he wanted to get better to improve his draft status and prepare himself for life in the pros. That shows some savvy long-term thinking. He also understood Oklahoma has a chance to have a very good team. The Sooners are returning three starters from the unit that reached the second round of the NCAA tournament, and they have added freshman guard Willie Warren, a McDonald's High School All-America who can light up a scoreboard in a hurry. If the Sooners have a great year and Griffin is drafted even higher next spring (possibly as high as number one), then his decision to stay in school will look pretty thoughtful indeed. Pittsburgh: Who will make threes? With DeJuan Blair, Tyrell Biggs and Sam Young, the Panthers are as good up front as any other team in the country. In Levance Fields, they have as tough a point guard as you'll find anywhere. But they lost three very good outside shooters off of last year's team in Keith Benjamin, Ronald Ramon and Mike Cook, who together sank 56 percent of the team's three-pointers last year. (And keep in mind Cook only played 11 games before blowing out his knee.) Pitt's dearth of long-range shooters could be an especially glaring deficiency with the new three-point line. Right now, Jamie Dixon will be looking to three possibilities to fill that role: Brad Wanamaker, a 6-4 sophomore who averaged 2.2 points as a freshman; Ashton Gibbs, a 6-2 freshman from New Jersey; and Jermaine Dixon, a 6-3 transfer from Tallahassee Junior College. Dixon, it should be noted, is the younger brother of my alltime favorite college player, the former Maryland guard Juan Dixon, but until one of those three proves he can make shots, this will remain a open question, dialed in from long-distance.
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| Seth Davis | > | HOOP THOUGHTS |
| [h1]20 Questions, Midnight Madness edition (cont.)[/h1] |
You only sneak up on people once, and Purdue did just that last season. The Boilermakers went from winning nine Big Ten games in 2006-07 to 15 last year -- largely, amazingly enough, because of its freshman class. Now, however, Purdue has two concerns. In the first place, one of those impressive freshmen, 6-7 swingman Scott Martin, transferred to Notre Dame. And second, most preseason publications have Purdue ranked in the top 15 nationally, if not the top 10, and they have been pegged as the team most likely to challenge Michigan State for Big Ten supremacy. It won't be easy living up to those expectations. Even without Martin, the Boilermakers still have enough perimeter weapons to go deep into the postseason. What they really need is for one of their post guys, preferably spindly 6-10 sophomore JaJuan Johnson, to have a stronger presence on the boards. (Purdue was out-rebounded by 2.3 boards per game in conference play last year.) Most of all, they must all understand that they will be playing a different game this season. Unlike a year ago, every opponent (and their fans) will be fully hyped up to play the Boilermakers right from the opening tip. It's up to them to show they can take the heat. Syracuse: Does more equal more? The Orange's problem last year was not so much a lack of talent as a lack of numbers. Jim Boeheim essentially had seven players at his disposal, and as a result the 'Cuse missed out on the NCAA tournament for the second straight year. The good news is, Boeheim lost just one of those seven guys. And not only is he bringing in four respectable newcomers, but also he is getting back the two players whose season-ending injuries last year created the depth problem in the first place -- junior guards Eric Devendorf and Andy Rautins. It might seem obvious that we should therefore conclude that this will be a much better team, but for the fact that the one player not returning to Syracuse is Donte Green, the dynamic forward who was chosen in the first round of the NBA draft by the Memphis Grizzlies. Green was obviously a talented player, but he spent too much time on the perimeter and didn't do a good enough job involving his teammates. Devendorf and sophomore Jonny Flynn could be as good a guard tandem as you'll see in the Big East, and junior forward Paul Harris has been steadily maturing as well. This Orange team might not be as flashy as it was last year with Green in the fold, but it has more players who are experienced and know how to win. And isn't that the point? Tennessee: Has Bruce Pearl over-scheduled his team? I'm all for coaches looking to play rigorous non-conference schedules, but after losing five of his top nine players off of last year's SEC regular season champs, Pearl has put together an even tougher schedule than the one that was ranked No. 1 in the RPI last year. Besides the annual bloodbath with Memphis (a series we should all pray will never be terminated), the Vols have road dates at Kansas and Temple; home games against Marquette and Gonzaga; and challenging dates with quality midmajors like Belmont, Tennessee-Martin and Siena. The last of those comes in the first round of the three-day Old Spice Classic, which will take place in Orlando over Thanksgiving weekend and boasts a field that also includes Michigan State and Georgetown. The Vols' ability to handle that slate, not to mention compete for another SEC title, will depend largely on how quickly two of their newcomers can adapt to the college game. Scotty Hopson is a 6-7 freshman whose lights-out athletic ability led him to be named a McDonald's High School All-America. Bobby Maze is a 6-2 junior college transfer who was brought in to run the offense following the dismissal of last year's starting point guard, Ramar Smith, for disciplinary reasons. Pearl's schedule will certainly test his team. Time will tell whether Tennessee's able to pass it. Texas: How do you replace D.J. Augustin? The Longhorns' sterling point guard from last season is gone, and with no obvious choice to replace him, Rick Barnes is going to deploy at that position a three-man committee of A.J. Abrams, Justin Mason and Dogus Balbay. The problem is that Abrams is too effective a scorer (his 16.5 average is the highest among all returning players in the Big 12) to be dishing off to other people. He probably thinks he needs to play point guard to prove himself as an NBA player, but the Longhorns need him to keep scoring the ball. Mason, meanwhile, isn't a highly-skilled player, and besides, if he becomes too good of a point guard, he could jeopardize his place on my All-Glue team. That pretty much leaves Balbay as Augustin's primary replacement. He is obviously unproven (Balbay, a native of Turkey, missed all of last season with a knee injury), but from what I hear, he is pretty adept at getting to the rim. Texas is choc full of talented frontcourtmen, so if its three-headed point guard is up to the task, the Longhorns will contend for a Big 12 title. UCLA: How big of an assist did the Bruins get from LSU? When Kevin Love and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute opted to leave Westwood for the NBA, it raised the question of how UCLA was going to get back to the Final Four with such a thin front line. That question got partly answered in the spring, when J'Mison Morgan, a 6-10 man-child from Dallas, was released from his commitment to LSU following the school's decision to fire John Brady. Morgan decided to sign with UCLA, and though he won't put up nearly the numbers Love did last season, he certainly will help shore up the team's biggest weakness. Yes, UCLA also lost Russell Westbrook to the NBA, but with point guard Darren Collison returning and being joined by three terrific young guards, most notably uber-frosh Jrue Holiday, it appears the Bruins will have a better overall perimeter game than they did last year. (Sharp-shooting guard Michael Roll is also finally healthy.) Morgan won't have to hold up the fort by himself inside (two of last season's backups, Alfred Aboya and James Keefe, are back, and 6-8 freshman Drew Gordon will be able to contribute if he's healthy). But if Morgan is as good as advertised, UCLA will be Detroit bound. Wisconsin: When will you all stop doubting Bo Ryan? When I say "you all," of course I'm talking about myself. And the answer is right this very minute. A year ago the Badgers were beginning the season with the task of replacing three starters, including Big Ten player of the year Alando Tucker, from a team that, at one point, was ranked No. 1 in the nation. I doubted they could realistically contend for a Big Ten crown under those circumstances. All the Badgers did was win the league's regular season and tournament titles and reach the Sweet Sixteen. During Ryan's seven seasons in Madison, the Badgers have finished in the Big Ten's top two five times. I don't know about you, but I'm noticing a pattern here. So yes, Wisconsin must again replace three pretty good seniors, but I have no doubt the Badgers will be just fine, especially considering the Big Ten is headed for another down year. The backcourt is anchored by the junior duo of point guard Trevon Hughes and Jason Bohannon, and the frontcourt features the rugged, senior tandem of Joe Krabbenhoft and Marcus Landry. The only question is which unknown player is going to come out of nowhere and have a great year. Will it be 6-10 sophomore Jon Leuer, who had 25 points in the Big Ten opener but saw his minutes dwindle because he was a defensive liability? Or will it be freshman point guard Jordan Taylor, who was voted Mr. Basketball in Minnesota as a high school senior? Regardless, we know somebody on this team will surprise us. What won't be a surprise will be seeing the Badgers in the hunt -- again. |
That is a great question.
Originally Posted by RetroBaller
Looks like Under Armour got a hold of Maryland basketball now as they jumped from nike
i wasn't going to say us....i knew Ant would bring up Eddie.
bastard.
(Eddie, not Ant)
ok, Ant too.
DF!
but that ain't got much to do with the programs consistency.
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| Derrick Favors will visit N.C. State |
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| 2010 prospect Roscoe Smith will travel to both Georgetown and Maryland this weekend. |
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| Dominic Cheek will visit Kansas. |
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| Indiana commitment Christian Watford will be in Bloomington for Hoosier Hysteria. |
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| Xavier expects a visit from 2010 forward J.D. Weatherspoon. |
