Turner is high risk, high reward
To help readers get to know top NBA draft prospects, Insider offers a 360-degree look at many of them in a concise and thorough scouting report featuring three expert perspectives: Kevin Pelton (analytics), Fran Fraschilla (scouting) and Chad Ford (NBA front offices). Here's a look at Turner.
WARP Projection: 2.4 (11th among players in the top 100)
Comps: Kosta Koufos (93.9), Chris Bosh (93.0), Derrick Favors (91.
, Spencer Hawes (91.2)
Strengths: Shooting, Block%
Weaknesses: 2P%, Steal%, PF%
The analytics perspective
Kevin Pelton: When he was on the court, Turner was one of the most productive freshmen in college basketball. Playing behind a veteran Texas frontline, Turner averaged just 22.2 minutes per game, producing an unremarkable raw stat line of 10.1 points and 6.5 rebounds per game and 2.6 blocks per game. That projects to 18.3 points, 11.8 rebounds and 4.8 blocks per 40 minutes -- not dissimilar to Karl-Anthony Towns' line of 19.5, 12.7 and 4.4.
Turner isn't quite at that level as a prospect. His 2-point percentage (51.3 percent) was low for a college big man, and his poor steal rate (10 in 755 minutes) is also a bit of a red flag. Whatever team drafts Turner shouldn't expect immediate contributions, but in time he figures to develop into a unique big man with the ability to protect the rim and stretch the floor with his outside shooting. It's hard to find many college comparisons for that combination.
The scouting perspective
Fran Fraschilla: While Myles Turner is likely to fall somewhere in the NBA draft lottery, he will need to make major adjustments to his game that will take time. Because of his age, lack of strength and his body type, the physicality of the NBA will be a major issue early in his career.
Similar sentiments were made about former Longhorns and current NBA star LaMarcus Aldridge when he was in Austin. Aldridge benefited, both physically and mentally, however, from his second year at Texas before being selected as the No. 2 pick in the 2006 NBA draft. Turner will not likely get that opportunity to improve the same way.
NBA scouts I have talked to describe Turner to me as a "high hips" guy in the post, meaning his narrow base will make him easy to move off the lane. Ideally, he will be able, at some point in his career, to add the necessary 25 pounds or so that will enable him to battle inside. All indications are that he is a diligent worker in the Texas weight room.
If there is a saving grace, offensively, it is his outstanding free throw shooting.
Because the NBA draft has become a "projection draft," and not one that usually fills immediate needs for teams, Turner will still end up in the lottery, in my opinion. But like so many young players coming into the NBA, his chance to impact a good team or help a poor team improve will be a work in progress.
The front office perspective
Chad Ford: Turner was the No. 2 ranked high school prospect in the country according to ESPNU. He has the talent to live up to that ranking. The question is whether he'll ever reach that lofty ceiling.
The good news is that Turner has NBA size and length for his position. While not an explosive athlete, he's mobile, can run the floor and guard in the paint and on the perimeter. His jump shot is very advanced for a 7-footer and he shows NBA range from there. He's been a very good rim protector at Texas.
The bad news is that Turner was wildly inconsistent as a freshman. He dominated lesser competition but often disappeared against elite teams. He also lacks strength and has a very unusual gait that has scouts worried. They wonder if he keeps running that way whether he'll trigger injuries down the road.
He's a tough player to project. On potential he's a top 5 pick. On immediate NBA impact, he's more of a late lottery, early first rounder. He's one of the biggest high risk/high reward players in the draft and should fall somewhere in the 6 to 13 range on draft night.
