- May 2, 2012
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Who winning it?
VIEWING ALERT!!!!! At 7 p.m. ET on Thursday (10/23), The Grantland Basketball Hour makes its triumphant debut on ESPN. Your hosts? Bill Simmons and Jalen Rose, who will be joined by Jeff Van Gundy, Doc Rivers, Michelle Beadle, Zach Lowe and rappers Notorious B.I.G. and Tupac Shakur. We made up only two of those guests. Watch us live, add us to your DVR season pass, do whatever you need to do. One hour of free basketball chatter, 7 p.m. Thursday, ESPN. See you there.
Lmao, that Rose vine.
I don't blame the team. It'd be a crippling, soul crushing blow for him to get hurt a 3rd time. For fans and teammates alike.
TNT games tonight.
Varejao looks ready to go. He, Love, Bron, & Tristan off the bench are gonna pound people on the glass.
Combine that with the shooting, having the league's best player & 2 other capable 20 point scorers, I don't see how they don't make it out of the east barring injury.
Cavs top new pecking order in East
It's that time when we hardworking analysts tie our summer efforts together and declare how each conference has rearranged itself for the coming season. And the Eastern Conference in particular has undergone a major makeover, with the Cavaliers -- now featuring LeBron James and Kevin Love -- transforming from doormat to title contender.
For me, this exercise is actually the punctuation mark for my summer position rankings. That is, I've taken the methodology introduced in that series, and pulled it together in a model to estimate team performance.
To extract these projected win baselines from my system, NBAPET, I've used my old methodology based on similarity scores and athletic factors to calculate how many possessions each player will have while he's on the floor and how efficiently he will use them.
This year, I integrated real plus-minus into the process to estimate how players impact the possessions they don't use. Using play-by-play data from Synergy Sports Technologies, I've replicated this process for both ends of the floor. The last two steps are familiar: Estimate playing time based on durability trends and role, then run the preliminary win estimates though a season simulator 1,000 times.
What we're left with are the numbers below, which represent the average number of projected wins for each team in 2014-15.
1. Cleveland Cavaliers (Projected wins: 61.7)
If the bet is whether the Cavaliers win the 2015 Finals or the field, you take the field. Nevertheless, it's hard to imagine how an objective forecast system would assign better title odds to a team other than Cleveland. On paper, the big four of LeBron James, Kevin Love, Kyrie Irving and Dion Waiters comprised a near-perfect offense, one that should rank in the top five in all the four factors. The defense projects pretty well too, though there is plenty of reason to be skeptical of that part of the prediction. We have six months to nitpick about the Cavs; right now they are have about a one-in-three chance of winning it all.
2. Chicago Bulls (Wins: 55.4)
But if the Cavs don't win it all, it seems likely it'll be due to running into a powerful Chicago team in the Eastern Conference finals. In that scenario, the Bulls get just enough stops with Tom Thibodeau's defense, while Derrick Rose leads an offense with better depth and versatility to exploit the Cleveland defense. Chicago has to answer some questions of its own. Will Rose be Rose? (He certainly looked like it on Monday.) Will the second unit be able to rebound and defend at a Thibodeau-approved level?
3. Atlanta Hawks (Wins: 52.7)
While the consensus seems to be that Toronto and Washington will battle it out for the third seed in the East, NBAPET likes a Hawks team that should roll out an elite offense. Only Cleveland projects to have a more efficient attack in the East thanks to the multitude of long-range shooters led by Kyle Korver. Yet don't sleep on the Atlanta defense, which adds perimeter stopper Thabo Sefolosha and welcomes back its backbone in Al Horford.
4. Washington Wizards (Wins: 48.6)
The Wizards indeed project to build on their progress from last season and should have one of the better point-prevention squads in the conference. Washington should control the glass with its deep frontcourt and perimeter players who rebound well, and John Wall causes havoc in the passing lanes. The offense should continue to grow thanks to continuity and another year of growth from Wall and Bradley Beal.
5. Miami Heat (Wins: 44.6)
Obviously this is going to be a very different Heat team, and you have to worry that despite all our efforts, it's impossible to filter out all the LeBron effects from the recent numbers that serve as the basis for these forecasts. Still, Miami comes out as a solid defensive squad that forces turnovers and scores enough to win behind Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade and Luol Deng. A fifth straight Finals run looks unlikely, but so too does a collapse.
6. Toronto Raptors (Wins: 43.6)
Yeah, this is an awfully disappointing forecast for a Toronto team that won 48 games last season and returns the fourth-most minutes of any team in the league. Part of it is that NBAPET doesn't buy the full breadth of DeMar DeRozan's leap forward last season. Part of it sees regression from Kyle Lowry's career campaign. The Raptors will need more consistent bench play and improvements from young starters Jonas Valanciunas and Terrence Ross.
7. Charlotte Hornets (Wins: 41.4)
Charlotte will be hard-pressed to field an efficient offense, though the defense should again be strong. Metrics don't love incoming rotation players like Marvin Williams and Brian Roberts, and NBAPET sees Lance Stephenson as solid, but short of star level. That said, the young group of Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Cody Zeller, P.J. Hairston and Noah Vonleh gives this Hornets roster a lot of upside.
8. Detroit Pistons (Wins: 38.4)
There is more talent on this season's roster, but Stan Van Gundy is tasked with turning last year's lemons into lemonade. The addition of shooters Jodie Meeks, D.J. Augustin and Caron Butler to go with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Kyle Singler gives Detroit the fourth-best offensive forecast in the conference. That will only happen if the foundation of Andre Drummond, Josh Smith and Greg Monroe figure out how to produce in what will likely be a three-man frontcourt rotation.
9. New York Knicks (Wins: 37.0)
NBAPET doesn't know what the Triangle offense is, but it still likes the Knicks' offense thanks to the addition of Jose Calderon to a group that was pretty efficient just two seasons ago. The defense shapes up as the worst in the conference, but this season is about installing the offense and getting positioned for next summer.
10. Brooklyn Nets (Wins: 33.7)
If Brook Lopez can get 1,500 or more minutes, the offense should be solid. Beyond that, we're talking about the league's second-oldest roster with no real defensive upside. Nets fans have to hang their hopes on a return to prominence from Deron Williams.
11. Indiana Pacers (Wins: 29.2)
What a difference an offseason makes. The defense, without Paul George and Stephenson, projects as the sixth-best in the East. Frank Vogel can probably coax a better performance than that. But there seems to be no hope for Indiana to feature efficient offense. The glimmer of hope is an early return by George while the Pacers hang around contention for the last playoff seed.
12. Milwaukee Bucks (Wins: 24.4)
The Bucks project to finish 13th on defense in the East. Given the length and athletic ability of youngsters Larry Sanders, Giannis Antetokounmpo and John Henson, new coach Jason Kidd might be able to do a lot better. Milwaukee is likely lottery-bound once again, but the trip there should be a lot more fun this time around.
13. Orlando Magic (Wins: 23.5)
Orlando needs to take a step forward as it's been quite awhile since Dwight Howard departed. Everything rides on the young group of Nikola Vucevic, Elfrid Payton, Victor Oladipo and Aaron Gordon getting better not just individually, but as a new foundation for the Magic. Right now, NBAPET is just not sure what that's going to look like.
14. Boston Celtics (Wins: 23.4)
If you think this forecast looks bad, you should see it without Rajon Rondo. There are some nice pieces in place, and Brad Stevens is a budding star as an NBA coach, but this remains a team early in the rebuilding process. Celtics boss Danny Ainge still has work to do.
15. Philadelphia 76ers (Wins: 17.1)
General manager Sam Hinkie continues to accumulate his best team off the court in the form of draft picks and injured players. Top 2014 pick Joel Embiid won't see the light of day this season and the Sixers can't count on an early-season flurry of wins to get them to the 19 they achieved last season. They're last on both ends of the floor.
TNT games tonight.
bruh screw that
is it the 28th yet
i cant watch preseason
bruh screw that
is it the 28th yet
i cant watch preseason
TNT games tonight.
bruh screw that
is it the 28th yet
i cant watch preseason
preseason has been money this year though. there's been OT games. and flagrants. techs. ****** been choked n elbowed. Trill season.
Lunch with the living legend!!! Great player even better person, Dwest kinda ok too lol #ESF #ESFOE #GOODPEOPLE #LIFE
A photo posted by SC8 (@joven_hielo) on Oct 10, 2014 at 12:36am PDT
realOn my phone ... kind of buzzed, swore I saw a post about Petey Pablo and the transformative experience that was Esther Baxter in that damn Freak A Leek video.trying to see what made you post this in hereI feel you though
Sorry haha
Anyway ... Esther, Buffie the Bodie, and countless other big booty **** in music videos from the late 90's through early 2000's basically shaped this white boy's odd preference for thick thighs, wide hips, honey dips, phat muffins and big soft booties. Damn you hip hop !!! You ostracized me from the typical white community haha
someone make this man a mod alreadyYes and pathetic that you Clevelanders applaud and champion that coward who returned under the heart warming facade of going home, and making amends.Amazing.
He came back because he's an opportunist to use a now superior roster to win rings once again as easily as possible. A fraud of a competitor.
If he loved NE Ohio he wouldn't have left in the first place. How quickly you folks forget him saying in summer 2010 that he grew up hating Cleveland.
what did larry bird smell like? what that thang smell like, man?Went to the Pacer game this past Saturday and say next to Larry God himself. I've never personally met him although I'm friends with his son. After their game they invited me back to their home for drinks and chatter.
Didn't take that many pictures out of respect. But Larry is pretty cool man. The section that he and Donnie Walsh (consultant for team operations) is reserved for Birds friends and colleagues so it was an honor to sit in this section lol.
Sat right next to him and his wife
Some crazy *** ******* trophy room/cigar room in his crib lol