OFFICIAL STOCK MARKET AND ECONOMY THREAD VOL. A NEW CHAPTER

[ballinsam23]

Total stock market index funds ****ted on us with much less of a headache.

I think I'm gonna reallocate to a 50/50 index/individual stocks portfolio instead of the 90/10 I have.

 

[jrod54life]

it has been proven over 90% of ppl cannot beat the market overall

 

[shorty doo wop]

Word fun time is officially over. I’m going to just hold my best positions and probably sell my less confident ones once I pass short term tax range

 

[biggie62]

it has been proven over 90% of ppl cannot beat the market overall

You Also need to caveat this. Those that do beat the market only usually do it during one bull market only. Once a recession hits and resets that market, people rarely ever match that success again. That 10% becomes 10% of that 10% every time there is a reset.

 

[thekillerj23]

Feel goofy for still holding Pelton, judt gonna have to hold it and check back in few years

 

[noskey]

Feel goofy for still holding Pelton, judt gonna have to hold it and check back in few years

Cramer is saying not to buy. We'll be fine

 

[mplsdunk]

Mara actually gonna have a Green Day?

 

[DLF]

it has been proven over 90% of ppl cannot beat the market overall

95%**

 

[mplsdunk]

What does that mean? Why would you try to go against the market?

Or do you mean 95% of traders quit?

 

[DLF]

What does that mean? Why would you try to go against the market?

Or do you mean 95% of traders quit?

95 percent of traders can’t beat the market. Best to go with index funds.

 

[trillbanker]

From a broader economy perspective, something doesn't quite add up to me.

A lot of the inflow this past year came from people who historically did not invest or invested very little into the stock market (outside of 401k). Not only did we have an inflow of new investors, but many also dove head first into options, margin trading, and perhaps investing more than they were willing to lose or tied up liquidity in investing accounts. There's also the clout chasing component of YOLOing all of your savings into one positions. Certainly, the few stories of people turning $50k into $1M get more attention than those who lose $5-10k (or even $50k). At some point people will lose interest in the stock market as the euphoria/fomo wears off, will be interesting to see how things play out then. I'm sensing we are getting close to that point

 

[iheartboost]

The market woke up today.

 

[iheartboost]

SKLZ, FCEL and JMIA

I cant remember the last time these 3 were doing numbers lol.

 

[johnnyredstorm]

Just give me a 15% CAGR and I’ll be happy. Anything over that is free money.

 

[noskey]

The market woke up today.

**** tell my portfolio this. God damn stagnant today. EXCEPT ******* PTON.

 

[antidope]

Even professional money managers don't just beat the market year after year. Most if they win year one they lose year two. It's all about risk-adjusted returns etc.

I don't even look at relative returns its all crap, I benchmark to my risk and as long as I am beating inflation I am good. Obviously want better but if one year I clipped 5% I wouldn't even trip. 2018 I was down like 9% didn't even care. 20 year money, can't lose, etc etc.

 

[frankmatthews]

Feel goofy for still holding Pelton, judt gonna have to hold it and check back in few years

Its an exercise bike company for christs sake!

 

[ballinsam23]

PTON under 100

 

[johnnyredstorm]

Its an exercise bike company for christs sake!

Subscription numbers need to start outpacing bike sales. That’s their future moat.

 

[Brownstone]

Apple waiting for that stock price to come down to cop PTON, Apple Bike 2023

 

[wallyhopp]

Even professional money managers don't just beat the market year after year. Most if they win year one they lose year two. It's all about risk-adjusted returns etc.

I don't even look at relative returns its all crap, I benchmark to my risk and as long as I am beating inflation I am good. Obviously want better but if one year I clipped 5% I wouldn't even trip. 2018 I was down like 9% didn't even care. 20 year money, can't lose, etc etc.

Funny. My 401k has been all over the place. 2018, I was ready to move it all over.
2019 alone, I was up 20%
first part of 2020, I was down 21%. Ended the year up 10%
so far in 2021,YTD I’m up 13%.
Overall The personal performance section for 1/1/2019 to today shows 53% gains.
Between 4/1/20 to today, it shows 66% gains.
Since I began all this, I think it sits at 28% gains.
This time last year, my entire portfolio was down 15%. Scary gains. Upon retirement, I just hope it outpaces inflation. Definitely trying to treat this like a savings account.

 

[frankmatthews]

Subscription numbers need to start outpacing bike sales. That’s their future moat.

I mean i get it, wall street loves subscription models and data collection but jesus christ, 165x earnings and 12x sales...for a ******* exercise bike. Idk where people think this is gonna go.

 

[johnnyredstorm]

 

[truss]

crispr is not any other random biotech

stay bullish

 

[johnnyredstorm]

Must watch if you own or wanted to own DNMR

I mean i get it, wall street loves subscription models and data collection but jesus christ, 165x earnings and 12x sales...for a ****ing exercise bike. Idk where people think this is gonna go.

I get what you're saying, but I think there's more optionality here than just a bike. They have made key acquisitions in AI, wearables and something else I can't remember that currently that does give them the potential to turn this into more than just a bike OEM. I think if they evolve into a lifestyles company that focuses on remote monitoring and gets integrated with health insurance co's there's a decent runway. Plus I could see a B2B opportunity with companies offering PTON subscriptions and bikes to employees at their HQs. I have no bag here and honestly don't plan to be a buyer unless it just tanked further, but I don't think they're as egregious as some people think. Totally get and agree with what you're saying as well, if they don't evolve past being just an OEM.