OFFICIAL STOCK MARKET AND ECONOMY THREAD VOL. A NEW CHAPTER

[noskey]

Guh reddit is down, how are the going to hold the line now?

 

[jrp44]

 

[crownedhead]

Guh reddit is down, how are the going to hold the line now?

They are doing a damn fine job so far

Reddit boys coming for the bag holders

 

[iheartboost]

 

[iheartboost]

Bruh $200...

 

[degenerate423]

I was gonna let these expire worthless, I don’t even know how Schwab is calculating the value AH ...

 

[crownedhead]

I was gonna let these expire worthless, I don’t even know how Schwab is calculating the value AH ...

This is fxcking fantastic!!!

 

[degenerate423]

This is fxcking fantastic!!!

I’m pretty sure it won’t be worth s*** tomorrow .

 

[FreshLeeLA]

This GME **** gonna be terrible for the market

 

[iheartboost]

Some dude from WSB

 

[crownedhead]

Please no Debbie-downers about GME.

Everybody heard y'all the last time.

Let the players play, let the gamblers gamble.

 

[2163O1baller90]

Amd will be $100+ soon

 

[QU!K]

Some dude from WSB

Can you explain like I’m 5?

 

[essential1]

I’m probably out of really actively trading for a few months. Need to accumulate some money and then go shopping.

I have small daily reoccurring money into BTC, ETH and AMP. As well as AAPL. Possibly SQ going forward.

But need to reload.

 

[noskey]

Can you explain like I’m 5?

Someone spent $75 to buy 2 options contracts and now they're worth $5385. GME still making life changing money.

 

[iheartboost]

Someone spent $75 to buy 2 options contracts and now they're worth $5385. GME still making life changing money.

but will it hold by Friday?

I couldn't do options on a pump stock like GME. To much of a risk.

 

[noskey]

but will it hold by Friday?

I couldn't do options on a pump stock like GME. To much of a risk.

If they already sold, thatd be best. If they caught the after hours wave they better hope it holds until open. I would have a sell order hot and ready to go at the first chance.

 

[iheartboost]

If they already sold, thatd be best. If they caught the after hours wave they better hope it holds until open. I would have a sell order hot and ready to go at the first chance.

Wait, so I thought the contract expires on (in his case) 2/26. He can sell it earlier?

 

[jrp44]

Wait, so I thought the contract expires on (in his case) 2/26. He can sell it earlier?

Man you can sell it 2 min later that's where it gets addicting.....but dangerous...I learned my options lessons the hard way like 2 years ago

 

[QU!K]

Someone spent $75 to buy 2 options contracts and now they're worth $5385. GME still making life changing money.

How does the math on options work?

 

[noskey]

How does the math on options work?

The price of options contracts is heavily affected by the stock's volatility. GME is the most volatile stock in the world at the moment, so you pay a heavy premium to buy the option contract.

In all sincerity, no shade in this at all, I suggest starting down the options trading hole with Investopedia and youtube videos. They're very complicated and I don't suggest trading them at all, until you understand the basics of how they get priced and how the price of the contracts are affected.

 

[essential1]

$GME

 

[johnnyredstorm]

Spoiler: $SBG — Owlet Baby Care | Jonah Lupton

DISTRIBUTION:
With any consumer products company, you can have the best products but without sufficient distribution you are screwed. Like many other companies these days, Owlet is multi-channel which means they sell online through their own ecommerce store [click here] as well as Amazon.com [click here] and Walmart.com [click here] but they also sell through traditional brick & mortar retailers like Walmart, Target, Best Buy and BuyBuyBaby.

CUSTOMER ACQUISITION:
For every young company some of the most important metrics to watch closely are down below because these basically show how profitable each customer is over time and how much you can justify acquiring that customer for. These are very strong numbers from a consumer products company and bode well for their growth going forward. With a 10x or 20x or even 30x LTC/CAC they can invest heavily in customer acquisition (sales & marketing). The reason the company is forecasting a drop in CAC but increase in LTV is because of more products coming down the pipeline to strengthen their baby-tech ecosystem. This is how you get your customers spending 3x more with you — you keep creating new products for them to love and tell their friends about.

COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES:
A decade ago we said “content is king” — Now we say “data is king”
In terms of competitive advantages for Owlet, I see many of them which I’ve listed in no particular order:
1) current product portfolio
2) product pipeline
3) existing retail distribution with more on the way
4) 1+ million existing customers
5) FDA clinical trials already underway
6) robust R&D process
7) $300+ million on the balance sheet
strong brand awareness and NPS scores
9) strong patent portfolio [click here]
10) seasoned management team and SPAC team

FINANCIALS:
Sometimes you have to take these 5 year financial projections with a grain of salt because you really don’t know how the company is coming up with them despite their best efforts to show charts and graphs. In the case of Owlet I actually think they have a good shot at hitting these numbers — assuming we get a couple more innovative products (not including the pregnancy band), more b&m retailers and of course some international expansion. I think the TAM for baby-tech products is enormous and will grow rapidly in the coming years because the core audience is millennials in their 20s and 30s with disposable income and the desire to own the best products in every category. I’m convinced that Owlet is going to be the leader in both baby-tech and the connected nursery.
Hopefully the company can meet their gross margin goals which will help them get to profitability within the next few years. I rarely worry about my portfolio companies losing money in the short term in order to invest in growth, product development, expansion, sales, marketing and capturing market share. The only way you build a $10 billion company is to forgo profits in the short term and instead focus on growing those revenues and building a strong ecosystem for customers.

VALUATION:
As I mentioned above, I think valuation on Owlet is extremely reasonable although if I’m being honest I think it’s ridiculous this company is not already trading at 15-20x 2021 sales especially when I look at some of the companies below and see their multiples. We already know that Owlet is trading at 10x 2021 EV/Sales with 60-80% revenue growth potential going out to 2025 and improving gross margins. This stock is about to hit the radar for tens of thousands of investors over the next few days and I’m glad they’ll finally be paying attention. I’m pretty pumped up for this company if you can’t tell — I just appreciate how massive this market is going to be for Owlet and I believe they have the team, products and resources to dominate.

MANAGEMENT:
Very strong team across the board, most of whom have either been at Owlet since the beginning or come from other amazing companies like Microsoft, August, United Health, etc.
I’ve been watching this company execute for the past 4+ years and I have no doubt they’ll continue to do so especially under the guidance of Sandbridge.

CONCLUSION:
I’ll keep this brief since I’ve basically said everything I want to say. Every week when I’m trying to decide which company to write about I consider at least 20-30 companies that I already own or are on my watchlist.
My goal is to find a disruptive, innovative company that I can get passionate about with strong fundamentals at a reasonable valuation that can go up 50% within 12 months and 5x within 5 years. I am very confident that Owlet is going to be one of these companies which is why it’s now a top 10 position in my portfolio and I will continue to add to this position in the coming days, weeks and months. If I’m right and Owlet dominates the baby-tech and connected-nursery industry through product innovation, better data, bigger retail partners, international expansion, and perhaps some M&A — all while lowering their CAC and increasing their LTV then I have no doubt this is a $10+ billion company in 5-10 years which would be 10x from here and a substantial return for shareholders.

I don’t think any of my siblings are planning to have more babies anytime soon but in the event they change their mind or I feel generous and decide to buy a smart sock for one of my friends, I will sleep good at night knowing that I’m giving that parent some piece of mind. I may never know how stressful and anxious it can be as a newborn parent but myself and millions of others should be grateful that companies like Owlet are there for make our lives a little be easier.

As we continue to move into a world with more wearables and connected devices, I expect Owlet will lead that charge for parents and newborns. When you think of baby-tech or the connected nursery you will think of Owlet and that’s an exciting story for investors.
In case you didn’t know… my investment strategy is finding small/mid cap growth companies with at least 30% sustainable revenue growth that can 5x in 5 years while improving humanity and making our planet a better place to live — Owlet meets these requirements and I’ll be a proud shareholder as I support them in their journey.

PT2.

I like the idea here as a spec for remote monitoring on infants and think it’s a great niche market and a perfect Becky stock. I took my warrants off just to squeeze more money for stocks I liked better like twlo sq JMIA but it’s a solid spec. Warrants under 1.80 are cheap and that’s how I’d play.

time to buy more tdoc

numbers were lackluster to me at first but 79% organic growth is pretty solid plus the LVGO synergies are great opportunities. Net losses should be temporary because of the merger too. I might grab some on margin tomorrow if we flush under 230.

We'll be interested in hearing yalls thoughts on the Instacart IPO when the time comes..........

Instacart adds board members, including Facebook's Fidji Simo, as it preps IPO

The appointments represent the first independent members and first woman to join the board of the nearly decade-old company, recently valued at $17.7 billion.

www.cnbc.com

$50b EV is my guess so I’ll pass. I still think TGT is a steal and bargain and no one knows it because of Shipt and what they could accomplish there.

 

[johnnyredstorm]

I was gonna let these expire worthless, I don’t even know how Schwab is calculating the value AH ...

Implied volatility must be getting jacked up again. Makes sense. You actually might see a profit tomorrow because of that, who knows.

if you don’t understand implied volatility or theta, please stay away from options until you learn. You will lose everything thinking you’re a pro. Learn about delta, theta and volatility ASAP.

 

[cragmatic]

I don’t understand options at all.
I am going down the path of becoming licensed to do some investments through my job and will be doing the SIE, Series 6, and Series 63? Exams. In a few months hopefully I learn quite a bit more in general than what I know now.