OFFICIAL STOCK MARKET AND ECONOMY THREAD VOL. A NEW CHAPTER

[DCAllAfrican]

It’s all about your risk tolerance - you could just buy the S&P 500 which is +13% last 10 years.

Amazon has been real good to me. Might close my position soon though..

I went yolo on Sony in 2012, Tesla in 2013, Amazon in 2014, Netflix in 2015 and Shopify in 2016. Still have large positions in all. I started focusing on infrastructure last year. Should pay off.

Yea, you should be set then.

Might be able to retireby 40 alongside アミーゴ .

I am with you. I tend to stick to "guaranteed" money and just sit back and wait.

 

[johnnyredstorm]

I really like this set up in FSLY for a swing against 87.50 but that pre announce risk is no joke and I wouldn’t want to be overweight and dealing with that experience again.

probably going to add some apple long as it holds 131. Think we see a new high soon and 150 eventually.

 

[coolcool]

 

[ballinsam23]

If TSLA and SPACEX were a joint thing then sure itll reach 5k. Ducktales on that 2032 figure.

 

[johnnyredstorm]

Just because they’ll sell more cars doesn’t mean they’ll trade at the same multiple as they are today. Ford sells more cars and look at their multiple. There needs to be another story to push price forward, like ballinsam23 said

 

[ahat]

 

[Betonblck]

Teslas still are not practical for a lot of people that have to park their cars on the street. For that reason, I think the growth projections are unrealistic if they are mainly based on selling more cars.

There is no telling how big this bubble may go though. Tesla could go to $6,000, bitcoin could also go to $500k. With the Fed driving the car, there is no telling how big these bubbles will get.

 

[ahat]

I like the cybertruck but where tf you gonna park that thing

 

[johnnyredstorm]

Teslas still are not practical for a lot of people that have to park their cars on the street. For that reason, I think the growth projections are unrealistic if they are mainly based on selling more cars.

There is no telling how big this bubble may go though. Tesla could go to $6,000, bitcoin could also go to $500k. With the Fed driving the car, there is no telling how big these bubbles will get.

This is the key. As long as people know some asset prices are being inflated by the fed and not fundamentals and they act accordingly so be it.

 

[MetalMario]

Invest in Tesla enough to sell your holdings to buy a Tesla. Call it going full circle

 

[johnnyredstorm]

People jumping in now are going to get rekt on Tesla. Everyone thinks it’s an easy trade and the next big guarantee not realizing it’s already happened. Stay safe.

 

[Brownstone]

Teslas still are not practical for a lot of people that have to park their cars on the street. For that reason, I think the growth projections are unrealistic if they are mainly based on selling more cars.

There is no telling how big this bubble may go though. Tesla could go to $6,000, bitcoin could also go to $500k. With the Fed driving the car, there is no telling how big these bubbles will get.

Curious as to why not? Lack of charging stations?

Growth hasn't been based on cars alone for a while now. Their market cap exceeds the entire auto industry.

 

[johnnyredstorm]

Getting the same vibes of euphoria and topping sentiment that I did in January when Tesla went stupid the first time. Be ready. There will be a deep drawdown in the market at some point. And if we don’t see one, be very afraid. If this scares you, instead of exciting you, think about your process, what you own, your cash and margin levels. If you’re using margin, deleverage ASAP. Stops on your weakest or lowest conviction positions, hedges, etc. I’m very long and staying long but thankfully I have great cushion, love every stock I own for the next 5 years and have some cash. And I’m willing to stop out if needed on a few positions that are small in allocation size if I decide to move on from them for the next few years

 

[antidope]

It’s all about your risk tolerance - you could just buy the S&P 500 which is +13% last 10 years.

18% ann. (609% cum.) since the trough of the GFC. People who don't live in this stuff just need to by SPY and be quiet. Legit is as can't lose as it gets.

11.3% since WW2, even amidst 13 separate bear markets.

 

[johnnyredstorm]

Buy regularly over your lifetime and you found the cheat code to creating wealth.

good thread on gdrx


good article on abnb. If this can come down under 140 and hit 15x 2021 sales, I’m a buyer. I may start in sooner. I know アミーゴ hates it, but it is a travel platform with strong brand power. But the price needs to be right.

Septum Insights : Airbnb & Market Outlook

What do we call a two-sided platform where actors can switch sides?

septum.substack.com

thinking ahead to balancing and building out my portfolio for 2021, I'm considering trimming down NVDA a little to create the money to add ABNB in my TOS account. The alternative would be using some of my cash position in Schwab, cutting SQ or TWLO. I'm not inclined to cut TWLO, I think there's legit enterprise potential here as this evolves into a Salesforce type stock and moves beyond just a messaging API/CPaaS company. SQ trades at a very attractive multiple on paper, but when you look at how that revenue growth that's calculated is the result of bitcoin trading which basically adds 0 value to their balance sheet, it makes it seem a little less attractive. Having said that, I love CashApp and the super app potential it has (same theory I have with SoFi) as they introduce more forms of lending and potentially insure tech which I think they should get into. This goes for any new positions moving forward, not just potentially buying ABNB. I really don't want to deploy the bulk of that 5% cash position until we see a serious drawdown in the market. I've also considered trimming some of the adds I had in NVTA eventually, but I view that as potential a $100 stock so any purchase I make with those funds would have to outperform that potential return. Another thing I could do is cut IIPR which has low growth estimates moving forward after being a monster the past couple of years, but I love the potential tailwinds here and dividend so we'll see. I'll probably just have a stop at 170 and let the market pull me out if anything, below there and 157.84 is possible anyway so I can always jump back in if anything. I also wanted to add another dividend stock, but I'm not seeing many options that offer the growth I'd want to see in addition to the dividend, I may add more Apple since that looks great against 131 for a breakout to 150 eventually. Decisions decisions.

 

[アミーゴ]

18% ann. (609% cum.) since the trough of the GFC. People who don't live in this stuff just need to by SPY and be quiet. Legit is as can't lose as it gets.

11.3% since WW2, even amidst 13 separate bear markets.

Can’t lose with it and there’s no shame in it at all. I’m someone who throws money/wants to automate my life as much as possible so I get IT.

 

[antidope]

Can’t lose with it and there’s no shame in it at all. I’m someone who throws money/wants to automate my life as much as possible so I get IT.

I don't index outside of my 401k but I really believe that it's the way to go for people who are not immersed in the markets.

 

[wallyhopp]

I don't index outside of my 401k but I really believe that it's the way to go for people who are not immersed in the markets.

I don't do much either. but ive been throwing chump change at my works 401k for 5-6 years now . It's not losing money. But it's not gaining too crazy either. 2019 was a bad market year. I think I was up 10% for all of 2020.

I may have my hands into too many indexes. Thoughts?

Sp500 / sp400/ Russell index/ us reit. Percentages have shifted every 2-3 months. Sp500 is doing well. Us reint was doing great precovid. But I'm hopeful the vaccine pushes these places into reopening. Sometimes I'll do 30/20/25/25. Or push it to 40/20/20/20. Or any sort of combo.

Is this chump change better invested in a long term stock that has decent dividends?

 

[ballinsam23]

There are some good books u can read on how to and what to properly allocate your 401k. Most of the standard automated plans don’t get you much really.

Would definitely recommend indexes like a total stock market fund mixed with some bonds/reits for 401k or Roth depending on age and risk tolerance. My company doesn’t match, so I don’t contribute to my 401k. Rather just use that for individual stocks with higher growth potential.

 

[アミーゴ]

I don't index outside of my 401k but I really believe that it's the way to go for people who are not immersed in the markets.

Or for people who want to learn the market - and as I said nothing for wrong with that at all. When people ask how to start learning I tell them to read and look into the 500.

 

[アミーゴ]

I think my Schwab Roth was up like 28% this year. At a minimum, make sure y’all are taking the free match if your employer gives.

 

[johnnyredstorm]

Satellite is the way to go. Grab an index and a couple of mutual funds that cover what isn’t in the index or weighted heavily.


Drone companies that aren’t covered by analysts, any ideas? It’s not AMBA. I know EWD Technologies is a good candidate, but aside from them?

 

[wallyhopp]

I do the 401k non matched because of the tax breaks. A grand or two a year is not make or break, so it's helped me tax wise, and it hasn't lost money. End of line upon retirement, it won't be much, but it's all about chipping away imho.

 

[ballinsam23]

Drone deliveries are real, lots of future potential. Medically at least for now. Zipline is legit.

 

[アミーゴ]

When I was at the VC EWD came down to Santa Monica and I helped him with the storytelling of his pitch deck - can’t even @ him on here now