- Jan 27, 2013
- 14,717
- 26,104
***Official Political Discussion Thread***
- Thread in 'General' Thread starter Started by rico x hood,
- Start date
- Jan 27, 2013
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- Dec 9, 2009
- 7,570
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Being a congressman/woman comes with all the perks. No wonder so many want to become politicans
- Jan 27, 2013
- 14,717
- 26,104
- Jan 27, 2013
- 14,717
- 26,104
- Dec 9, 2009
- 7,570
- 4,833
As I said, Trump voters are voting for him to stick it to the "woke" libs and thats all they care about. Because no way in hell could they think he was a good president even if we dont mention his legal problems. Also a big portion of middle america cant fathom voting for a woman let alone a woman of color. Sad state of affairs that its still a close race
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- Jan 27, 2013
- 14,717
- 26,104
- Jan 27, 2013
- 14,717
- 26,104
- Sep 20, 2014
- 15,717
- 22,333
- Jun 28, 2004
- 6,978
- 17,056
Israel’s brilliant strategy:
A bunch more war crimes.
- Apr 30, 2011
- 8,131
- 10,711
dacomeup
Supporter
- Jan 20, 2006
- 26,601
- 37,542
I agree. That Obama speech wasn’t good for convincing a group that Kamala and Dems are weak with already.
- Mar 30, 2007
- 151,234
- 202,672
yobyellav
formerly cord15
- Sep 12, 2006
- 12,939
- 9,820
Trump knows **** isn’t going well, so he’s just selling random **** to his supporters. It’s actually quite funny. I imagine he just looks around whatever room he’s in and says, “hey, do we have trump lamps? Let’s sell some trump lamps.”
Don’t have an issue with the clips I’ve seen of Obama’s speech. Folks have become so accustomed to ********, they get offended at any hint of truth. Among other terrible character traits, the man is racist. He shouldn’t get any black votes. While in office, he said cops should rough up suspects while taking them into custody. Nobody has to wonder who he was talking about. It’s the same people who cops were already killing because they feared for their lives while we were just trying to live ours.
Don’t have an issue with the clips I’ve seen of Obama’s speech. Folks have become so accustomed to ********, they get offended at any hint of truth. Among other terrible character traits, the man is racist. He shouldn’t get any black votes. While in office, he said cops should rough up suspects while taking them into custody. Nobody has to wonder who he was talking about. It’s the same people who cops were already killing because they feared for their lives while we were just trying to live ours.
- Jul 29, 2001
- 20,712
- 10,770
If she gets a third term, she gets lifetime full health benefits. Something none of her voters will ever get because she would never vote for those same benefits for them.
aepps20
Supporter
- Feb 8, 2004
- 42,565
- 90,844
My offer to pay for postage for folks that want to write letters to swing state voters is still open.
- Jun 28, 2004
- 6,978
- 17,056
Trump wants to make auto loan interest tax-deductible. It would mostly help the rich, experts say.
Donald Trump is proposing making interest on car loans tax-deductible. But the benefit would mostly help high earners.
www.cbsnews.com
This is when Trump is at his most dangerous electorally.
Same as when he’s talking about removing taxes on tips and overtime.
Non college under 30’s, are far more likely to have a car note, to be working hourly and with overtime, and working in a job where tips are part of their overall compensation (and not just the service industry, there’s a lot of self employed people as well).
If you want a really big and favorable increase in youth turnout, you have to put tangible issues on the table. Student movements are oftentimes highly idealistic but those movements are a minority of college students and non college young adults are generally less engaged and less organized.
The promise of more take home pay, a tax credit for your car note’s interest, lower gas prices, and cheaper rent (due to the mass deportation), those things resonate and Trump could theoretically deliver those things pretty quickly through either budget reconciliation or EO.
Democrats can counter with how foolish those policies are, how counter productive they are, how much experts don’t like these policies, how it’s the case that these policies are actually mostly giveaways to other constituents in Trump’s coalition. They’d be right but those counter arguments actually pushes away young, non college voters.
Dems need to counter Trump and Vance’s promises and present a better, alternate vision for how a Harris Administration will tangibly make the lives of a generally left out and left behind demographic tranche.
H/T to
osh kosh bosh
for inspiring this post, with this post,Edit:
Here’s another example!
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- Mar 30, 2007
- 151,234
- 202,672
Air Champa
formerly champa
- Feb 23, 2017
- 2,414
- 4,409
One of Trump's problems is going to be anyone believing a word he says right now. At least when it comes to doing anything that benefits others and not himself. He can make all the promises he wants, but are they going to come to fruition, or are they just "concepts." He's just flinging stuff at the wall and desperately hoping something sticks at this point.
I'm a little disappointed nobody has hopped on the legalize weed train this election.
I'm a little disappointed nobody has hopped on the legalize weed train this election.
- Aug 5, 2007
- 16,552
- 21,156
accurate
- Aug 2, 2008
- 37,567
- 13,058
Bored, did some digging.
Senate races will be as important as anything. The variance between what party wins the senate races and what Presidential candidate wins the state has decreased over the last 3 elections, and is indicative of larger party divides.. The party platforms are way too different for someone to justify voting for a Democratic Senator, but a Republican for President, at least not by significant percentages. When it did happen, if you dig enough, you'll see a party that is underwater in the state
2016 & 2020, there was only 1 senate race that went opposite of the presidential election. That was Susan Collins in Maine, which is a state party stalwart and incumbent which holds significantly different weight.
2012 had some good variance, but the incumbency candidates tended to win out:
- Indiana switch, partially due to Republican infighting and unseating incumbent Richard Luger, who probably would have won (see what happened in 2018 where Donnelly lost)
-ND retained senate incumbency
-Claire McCaskill was a popular incumbent for the Dems
-Jon Tester was an incumbent in MT
-Nevada Republicans won senate with 45% of the vote, same that Romney got. 9k margin win in Senate, there was 9% for 3rd party and other names.
-Manchin in WV incumbent
Let's look at 2024
2 states that are not toss ups in the presidential election that will switch (WV & MT)
WV is a red state, but if Manchin was running, he'd win as a state party stalwart.
MT- Tester always won by less than 20K votes in every election, he's less popular now than 06,12 & 18, but MT is voting the way of the presidential election.
If Ohio bucks the trend and it is a Dem hold, look no further than Sherrod Brown being in state politics for almost 50 years.
That leaves AZ, MI, NV, PA, WI
-AZ Trump would need to outperform Lake significantly, and it's not like Dems are running an unpopular candidate in Gallego who is winning polls 42-37. That is easy enough to overtake. He’s at 48% minimum at every poll, and a handful of 52-53% polls. With 6-12% undecideds. Would need close to, if not more than 100,000 split tickets. For example Trump gained 24K more than McSalley in 2020 AZ Senate, Biden had 44K less than Kelly
-MI, Trump would need to overcome the signficant ground game Dems built in Michigan after losing in 2016. On top of having one of the most popular governors in the country, and impressive turnout being evident in Wayne County (Detroit) already. Slotkin has polled ahead most of the cycle, and seems to be steady where she’s at, it isn’t an AZ lead, but it has been pretty clear lead.
There is a path with the Stein and Palestine angle for Trump, but it would need to bear fruit, and also have a significant turn of voters voting Trump, as opposed to voting for Stein. Do I think Harris wins 70% of the 206,000 registered Arab vote like Biden did in 2020? No. How much they lose? Who knows. But if they even held 20% of that vote (40k Dem to 166k Rep), they still would have won the state in 2020. Trump would need to gain those votes by a significant margin and outperform 2020.
The State/National Democratic Party has already pivoted away from the Palestinian crisis, with their outreach in Wayne and Oakland county. The early ballot returns have been a pretty big story so far. If you think NYT/Siena is right 80/20, are padding votes for the Democrats as it is a higher margin for them.. That + going after a few % points of women voters, they are looking to outflank Republican regardless of any statewide misfortune.
-PA has a popular Democratic Governor. Casey has had a pretty steady lead in the Senate race. Comes down to overall turnout.
-NV Rosen has a pretty commanding lead over Brown. Trump would need similar outperforming of 5+ that he needs in AZ.
-WI is a pretty simple one, whatever indication MI and PA give on election night is traditional right.
For ****s and giggles, throw in NC Gov. Where Mark Robinson will be a huge drag on the entire Republican ticket especially in the major cities. Trump will obviously do better than Robinson, but if that margin is truly 10,12,15%. That is a herculean miracle to swing. 2020 Trump outperformed Forest in NC governor by 3%.
2020 - Only MT went against the incumbent party (Dem), but voted with the state on presidential result.
2016 - NH & VT Dem Governors did worse than Clinton. NC, Cooper did better than Clinton. Vermont it was the Republican LT. Gov who won after Dem governor didn’t seek re-election. NH governor didn’t seek re-election. Clinton had a 3K margin in President. Republican did 15K better than Trump.
All of this is for naught if people don’t go out and vote either early or on Election Day, but it hasn’t appeared to be anything other than steady/similar turnout from 2020 by party ID.
It’s not totally set in stone, what could be a high turnout as is expect going in, could end up being a dud. The Dems biggest fear is that everybody who voted for 2020 by mail, and decides to go in-person because we don’t have a pandemic just doesn’t vote. If it happens in significant enough droves, that provides the whole host of issues and would be throwing all of this away.
But if it’s not, Trump has a pretty big hill to fight on.
Senate races will be as important as anything. The variance between what party wins the senate races and what Presidential candidate wins the state has decreased over the last 3 elections, and is indicative of larger party divides.. The party platforms are way too different for someone to justify voting for a Democratic Senator, but a Republican for President, at least not by significant percentages. When it did happen, if you dig enough, you'll see a party that is underwater in the state
2016 & 2020, there was only 1 senate race that went opposite of the presidential election. That was Susan Collins in Maine, which is a state party stalwart and incumbent which holds significantly different weight.
2012 had some good variance, but the incumbency candidates tended to win out:
- Indiana switch, partially due to Republican infighting and unseating incumbent Richard Luger, who probably would have won (see what happened in 2018 where Donnelly lost)
-ND retained senate incumbency
-Claire McCaskill was a popular incumbent for the Dems
-Jon Tester was an incumbent in MT
-Nevada Republicans won senate with 45% of the vote, same that Romney got. 9k margin win in Senate, there was 9% for 3rd party and other names.
-Manchin in WV incumbent
Let's look at 2024
2 states that are not toss ups in the presidential election that will switch (WV & MT)
WV is a red state, but if Manchin was running, he'd win as a state party stalwart.
MT- Tester always won by less than 20K votes in every election, he's less popular now than 06,12 & 18, but MT is voting the way of the presidential election.
If Ohio bucks the trend and it is a Dem hold, look no further than Sherrod Brown being in state politics for almost 50 years.
That leaves AZ, MI, NV, PA, WI
-AZ Trump would need to outperform Lake significantly, and it's not like Dems are running an unpopular candidate in Gallego who is winning polls 42-37. That is easy enough to overtake. He’s at 48% minimum at every poll, and a handful of 52-53% polls. With 6-12% undecideds. Would need close to, if not more than 100,000 split tickets. For example Trump gained 24K more than McSalley in 2020 AZ Senate, Biden had 44K less than Kelly
-MI, Trump would need to overcome the signficant ground game Dems built in Michigan after losing in 2016. On top of having one of the most popular governors in the country, and impressive turnout being evident in Wayne County (Detroit) already. Slotkin has polled ahead most of the cycle, and seems to be steady where she’s at, it isn’t an AZ lead, but it has been pretty clear lead.
There is a path with the Stein and Palestine angle for Trump, but it would need to bear fruit, and also have a significant turn of voters voting Trump, as opposed to voting for Stein. Do I think Harris wins 70% of the 206,000 registered Arab vote like Biden did in 2020? No. How much they lose? Who knows. But if they even held 20% of that vote (40k Dem to 166k Rep), they still would have won the state in 2020. Trump would need to gain those votes by a significant margin and outperform 2020.
The State/National Democratic Party has already pivoted away from the Palestinian crisis, with their outreach in Wayne and Oakland county. The early ballot returns have been a pretty big story so far. If you think NYT/Siena is right 80/20, are padding votes for the Democrats as it is a higher margin for them.. That + going after a few % points of women voters, they are looking to outflank Republican regardless of any statewide misfortune.
-PA has a popular Democratic Governor. Casey has had a pretty steady lead in the Senate race. Comes down to overall turnout.
-NV Rosen has a pretty commanding lead over Brown. Trump would need similar outperforming of 5+ that he needs in AZ.
-WI is a pretty simple one, whatever indication MI and PA give on election night is traditional right.
For ****s and giggles, throw in NC Gov. Where Mark Robinson will be a huge drag on the entire Republican ticket especially in the major cities. Trump will obviously do better than Robinson, but if that margin is truly 10,12,15%. That is a herculean miracle to swing. 2020 Trump outperformed Forest in NC governor by 3%.
2020 - Only MT went against the incumbent party (Dem), but voted with the state on presidential result.
2016 - NH & VT Dem Governors did worse than Clinton. NC, Cooper did better than Clinton. Vermont it was the Republican LT. Gov who won after Dem governor didn’t seek re-election. NH governor didn’t seek re-election. Clinton had a 3K margin in President. Republican did 15K better than Trump.
All of this is for naught if people don’t go out and vote either early or on Election Day, but it hasn’t appeared to be anything other than steady/similar turnout from 2020 by party ID.
It’s not totally set in stone, what could be a high turnout as is expect going in, could end up being a dud. The Dems biggest fear is that everybody who voted for 2020 by mail, and decides to go in-person because we don’t have a pandemic just doesn’t vote. If it happens in significant enough droves, that provides the whole host of issues and would be throwing all of this away.
But if it’s not, Trump has a pretty big hill to fight on.
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- Jan 16, 2011
- 14,979
- 36,362
What if the group doesn't want to be convinced?
What if they don't want a solution that isn't an implementation of their zero sum view of the workplace/opportunity (when women were being housewives, the world was better for men)?
Obama's speech was questioning that value system.
Here's what's happening: Democrats offer solutions that would help those young folks (infusion of cash towards homeownership, M4A, lower tuition, unions to raise the wage floor) and everybody is challenging the feasibility of their plan. Meanwhile, Republicans are coming up with proposals that sound good on paper, but nobody asks them "What's the point of making interest on car loans tax-deductible when tariffs are going to increase the cost of the car by 100%?"
They don't want to listen, and I'm tired of reading about how Democrats should lie better than Republicans. Democrats shouldn't contribute to increasing the distrust towards the electoral system by promising the moon when they know we can't escape Earth's gravity.
- Aug 2, 2006
- 34,145
- 29,489
Uhm are you living in a different reality?
Trump's campaign is going good. It's a 50-50 race, just got some good polls in Nevada, Pennsylvania. Things are looking pretty good for Trump.
You can keep calling him racist...but his share of the black vote keeps increasing.
Cleary there's an audience of black people that don't agree or don't care.
- Aug 2, 2006
- 34,145
- 29,489
Look I can understand that it might satisfying to dismiss key members of the democratic coalition has moral monsters who don't need to be appealed to, but unfortunately
Unless you have a plan to win more white consertive votes you're going to need to convince black men to continue supporting democrats.
It's just a cop out to pretend "oh.these people are bad and beyond convincing"
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