***Official Political Discussion Thread***

Happy tenth anniversary to the tan suit.

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In down-ballot races in Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina, the Democratic candidate leads by double digits, overperforming Harris by at least 5 points while the Republican candidate trails Trump by 7 or more. In the Arizona Senate race, Democrat Ruben Gallego leads Republican Kari Lake by 56-41%. Democrat Jacky Rosen bests Republican Sam Brown by 55-41% in the Nevada Senate race. In the North Carolina gubernatorial race, Democrat Josh Stein tops Republican Mark Robinson by 54-43%.


Trying to tell me that the Democratic Party has a 15 and 14 point lead in AZ and NV in a Fox News poll and we talking about there’s going to be a 8% of the voting population shift in the presidential race.
:lol:
 
I believe pollster are making adjustments for the Presidential race to avoid a another big polling error in Trump's favor

Such adjustment is not happening in the Senate races

Also, the GOP are running very unpopular candidates in certain states

In states were they are running quality candidates, they Senate polls are much better for them

I think all signs point to a close election no matter who wins, and I think the Senate candidates in competitive races will run ahead of Harris mostly. Except in Maryland.
 
Unpopular senate candidates always have negative impact on Presidential elections.

Either depressing vote to a slight degree or turning independents in the other direction.

If it has a 1-3% impact on Trump those races aren’t blowouts, but they are not really close.

Over the weekend, I looked at 2016 & 2020 and outside of career stalwarts in a state (Collins in ME, Grassley in IA), every senate battleground was within 4 points of what the party candidate for president was.

Outside of Harris blowing it on the debate stage, Trump would have to overcome being less popular, running from behind, and a Senate candidate and VP dragging down the ticket.

Not saying it can’t be done….. But it really would require every star to align.
 
The GOP is so screwed. The irony is that Pence was the perfect VP for Trump. He kept his mouth shut while Trump did all the talking, and he just kind of cleaned things up behind the scenes. Meanwhile, Vance thinks he's the opening act for Trump. It's embarrassing.
 


While this might sound good on paper and is intended to affect only the top 0.01%, consider the impact on real estate properties, like residential buildings that will be taxed at 25%. Do you really think landlords will simply absorb that cost, or are they more likely to raise prices to compensate?

Don't get me wrong, I also think that a 100% tariff on imports is absolutely crazy.
 
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