- Jan 30, 2007
- 28,535
- 43,641
Madam President 
***Official Political Discussion Thread***
- Thread in 'General' Thread starter Started by rico x hood,
- Start date
- Sep 3, 2014
- 6,348
- 7,343
This is wonderful news! Joe should have never ran for a 2nd term. He's simply too old. And Kamala is going to be out as well. She's a very unpopular candidate.
- Feb 23, 2006
- 11,751
- 5,891
I blame CNN for a lot of this. Yes, Joe looked bad at the debate, but once it was over CNN hit the ground running about replacing him. And they have not let up.
- Apr 30, 2010
- 69,686
- 106,337
Ready to see all the people adamant that Biden step down become a part of the cycle trashing Kamala for every little thing.
- Mar 30, 2007
- 151,234
- 202,672
Don’t think SpongeBob would drop a nuke on a hurricane
- Dec 9, 2009
- 7,570
- 4,833
Godspeed Kamala
jpzx
Supporter
- Feb 7, 2008
- 58,766
- 28,068
Kamala
Gretchen
It’s not gonna be a two-woman ticket, not that I wouldn’t vote for that, but we all know it’s not gonna be that. Though that would secure Michigan.
Realistically, it would be ideal to find a battleground state VP if elsewhere.
Kamala
?
Gretchen
It’s not gonna be a two-woman ticket, not that I wouldn’t vote for that, but we all know it’s not gonna be that. Though that would secure Michigan.
Realistically, it would be ideal to find a battleground state VP if elsewhere.
Kamala
?
- Apr 30, 2011
- 8,131
- 10,711
That’s an absurdly false statement. Newsom has polled -11 to Trump from April to July. When he opens his mouth outside CA nothing good comes from it.
And he doesn’t even want to run this year.
Nike Jordan
Supporter
- Jun 27, 2002
- 33,964
- 81,300
I step away for an hour to go shopping and this news breaks.
- Apr 30, 2010
- 69,686
- 106,337
Yeah this stuff always confuses me. One side overwhelmingly does this and people keep trying to attribute it to both. Like everything else I guess.
- Apr 30, 2011
- 8,131
- 10,711
It’ll be Cooper or Shapiro. Mark it.
- Sep 20, 2007
- 13,234
- 14,707
Has Kamala been fairing better?
- Jun 21, 2005
- 10,004
- 11,464
Yes, im voting for anyone besides the guy who said the election was fake, wants to be a dictator and told his supporters to storm the Capitol.
Black, white, gay, straight, trans, Martian. Doesn’t really matter.
- Jul 20, 2009
- 64,967
- 196,191
Damn, everyone taking this **** seriously
solewoman
Staff member
- Jul 27, 2006
- 19,657
- 21,659
I just hope that now there’s an alternative people really dig into the policies and changes these candidates are trying to implement. Especially Teflon Don.
superblytrife
Supporter
- Mar 20, 2002
- 21,048
- 22,785
Does this mean
trappedintime
is gonna go back in his hole now? Hopefully so.
Probably not though. He’ll be here to move the goalposts and trash the Dems decisions from this point forward—a point he adamantly called for. Trust.
trappedintime
is gonna go back in his hole now? Hopefully so. Probably not though. He’ll be here to move the goalposts and trash the Dems decisions from this point forward—a point he adamantly called for. Trust.
- Jun 21, 2009
- 49,810
- 51,203
This race was over even before the assassination. The murder attempt just put it over the edge.
But I’ll give the party credit here for actually doing the right thing and giving it a shot.
At least they’re fighting.
But I’ll give the party credit here for actually doing the right thing and giving it a shot.
At least they’re fighting.
- Aug 2, 2006
- 34,145
- 29,489
Regarding Nate Silver. Can someone explain this to me, because I feel like I’m for sure missing something.
I know he gets a lot of credit for his model giving trump a 30% probability in 2016 while others had him at around 2-5%. My question is, if an event only happens once (2016 election), how does that “prove” that one poll was better than the other, when both polls had trump losing. Maybe it was that 1% chance out of 100 simulations
I’m genuinely asking. Also, if 538 had Trump at 30%, why is Biden such a lock to lose when 538 had him st 49%, (unless I’m looking at the wrong chart on his website).
Genuinely asking, I changed my major in college because Statistics whooped my ***
1. By looking at all their forecasts you can check how they perform. When they say something has a 30% chance of happening over the course of their forecasts it tends to happen only 30% of the time.
They go into depth here
2. Modeling isn't just weighting polling averages, you also have to make decisions the relationship between the variables.
In 2016 the other election models treated all the polls as independent variables.
So the fact that Trump was down by a little bit in the 5 crucial swing states, the chance that all these polls would be wrong was treated as highly improbable.
Nate correctly had polling errors as being correlated. That 3 point polling error in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin is not that unlikely.Plus there were alot of undecided voters,
And so therefore his model gave Trump a strong chance of winning.
Trump won in the way that the model would expect. A correlated polling error accross multiple states and undecided voters breaking for Trump at the end.
He gave Trump a better chance and his model gave you Trumps roadmap to victory. So imo that is pure Nate W.
- Sep 24, 2023
- 1,009
- 1,457
They need to go young and also focus on how old and senile Trump is. He’s basically 80 and can’t form a coherent sentence. Attack that **** the way everyone has attacked Biden’s age.
- Sep 25, 2015
- 4,931
- 3,570
A lot of weak minded people will vote for Harris because they take trump too personally. She can’t run this country. She couldn’t even run the border. She didn’t even go to the border until she was pressured by the media. I wouldn’t watch that interview if I was you because that’s not a president
- Sep 25, 2015
- 4,931
- 3,570
You’re confusing Trump with Biden, buddy
- Apr 30, 2011
- 8,131
- 10,711
Yeah 9 pts better, -2. That’s worlds apart in being an actual threat to Trump.
Her numbers rise when she gets out on the campaign trail. Plus she has issues she can actually gain votes from. A few weeks ago she was calling for legalizing marijuana and a full ceasefire in Gaza. Two positions Biden was never going to get to.
- Aug 2, 2006
- 34,145
- 29,489
Oh I missed the news.
- Jan 4, 2014
- 9,108
- 13,926
Take a fascist too personally
- Mar 30, 2007
- 151,234
- 202,672
Trump called his wife Mercedes
Which would be an innocent gaffe for most but trump confused e Jean Carroll for another one of his wives
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