OKC-Memphis tied; who's favored now?
After four games featuring four overtimes, we are right back where we started this unlikely Grizzlies-Thunder series: in Oklahoma City, tied up.
We've gotten to see two exciting young teams under high stress, and it's time to assess what we've learned and where this is all going.
Is OKC back in the favorite role? Are these up-and-coming teams destined for greatness? Are the Mavs licking their lips? We asked our writers to break it all down, 5-on-5-style:
1. What will you remember most about Thunder-Grizzlies Game 4?
J.M. Poulard,
WarriorsWorld: Game 4 was a microcosm of the Grizzlies' playoff run. Memphis just keeps making the improbable materialize right before our eyes. Whether it was handling the Spurs, winning Game 1 in Oklahoma City or coming back in Game 4, we just cannot count them out.
Beckley Mason,
HoopSpeak: History is written by the future, so my memory of the game still depends on what happens in the next two or three games. If the Thunder win in six, I'll remember Game 4 as the turning point. If it goes seven, the three overtimes will be emblematic of just how intensely competitive, if not beautifully played, the series was.
John Hollinger, ESPN.com: The ovation from the Memphis fans at the end. Even though their team lost and it was nearly 1:00 in the morning, they had been so wildly entertained by both teams that all they could give was heartfelt applause.
Graydon Gordian,
48 Minutes of Hell: Although the Thunder walked away with the win, the improbable 3-point shots by Mike Conley and Greivis Vasquez to keep the game alive are what I'll remember best. Given the distance of Conley's shot, and how well-covered Vasquez was, both shots were especially stunning.
Dan Feldman,
PistonPowered: How much Kevin Durant hates basketball. Monday's game featured compelling, hard-nosed play. Mike Conley and Greivis Vasquez made huge shots. Neither team gave an inch. I could've watched for days. But late in the third overtime, Durant hit a runner, helped block a shot and made a step-back jumper on three straight possessions -- selfishly depriving us of more hoops.
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2. What's something we've learned in this series about these two teams?
J.M. Poulard, WarriorsWorld: Memphis is the most physical team in the playoffs, as evidenced by their 18.5 offensive rebounds per game and 36.5 free throws attempted per game versus OKC.
For all the talk about OKC's late-game execution on offense, the real problem has been its defense. The Thunder are surrendering 27.8 points per game in the final quarter in this series.
Beckley Mason, HoopSpeak: We've learned that the Thunder are not immune to intrasquad drama, and that Mike Conley was worth the money. We also learned that despite the ridicule resultant from the Grizzlies' trade-deadline gaffe, Memphis is unbelievably lucky O.J. Mayo was not replaced by Josh McRoberts.
John Hollinger, ESPN.com: That these two teams are better off with Russell Westbrook and Rudy Gay, respectively, than they are without them. Don't let anyone tell you any different.
Graydon Gordian, 48 Minutes of Hell: Memphis showed resolve in the first round, but I'm still not sure I understood just how mentally tough the Grizzlies are. No matter how few minutes are left, how many points they are down by (or how big a lead they've given up), or how many players have fouled out, they play hard and with tremendous confidence.
Dan Feldman, PistonPowered: If NBA awards included the playoffs so far, Lionel Hollins would be the coach of the year. Memphis isn't just happy to be here. Hollins has skillfully walked the line between keeping the Grizzlies confident and keeping them loose. I'm not sure there's a more cohesive team still alive, and that's a credit to Hollins.
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3. Fact or Fiction: With home court, OKC is the clear favorite in this series.
J.M. Poulard, WarriorsWorld: Fact. After winning such a thrilling yet exhausting game on the road, the OKC crowd will energize the Thunder players and help them take command of Game 5.
Beckley Mason, HoopSpeak: Fact. The Grizzlies will make them grind for wins, but the Thunder have finally found a lineup that mauls Memphis. Expect the Thunder to go small for longer stretches in the remaining games, spreading the floor and using James Harden as a third creator from the wing.
John Hollinger, ESPN.com: Fact. A home-court team in a 2-2 tie wins the series about three-quarters of the time, and the Thunder will also have a fatigue advantage because of all the minutes Memphis bigs Marc Gasol (57) and Zach Randolph (56) played in Game 4.
Graydon Gordian, 48 Minutes of Hell: Fiction, because of the word "clear." I still think OKC will win (although only if it can find a way to get Kevin Durant quality shots late in games), but with 20 minutes of overtime play already in the books, nothing about this series seems clear.
Dan Feldman, PistonPowered: Fact. The Thunder shouldn't be an overwhelming favorite, but they proved to be the better team in the regular season and have home-court advantage. It's only a matter of time until they put away the pesky Grizzlies. Just ask the Spurs. Right? Right? Hello?
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4. Fact or Fiction: Some season soon, MEM-OKC will be the West finals.
J.M. Poulard, WarriorsWorld: Fiction. As good as these teams are, I have to believe the Lakers will be back to compete for the Western Conference crown, with Oklahoma City, Portland and Dallas challenging them.
Beckley Mason, HoopSpeak: Fact, which is stranger than fiction. The West is thinning out, and Memphis -- if it can hang on to Marc Gasol -- looks primed to improve as Mike Conley, Gasol and Darrell Arthur continue to develop. OKC will be making deep runs into the playoffs for the next decade, so this bout should be the first in an epic series of slugfests.
John Hollinger, ESPN.com: Fact. These are the two rising forces in the Western Conference, and the Lakers-Mavs-Spurs axis isn't going to be able to keep them down for long. Both Memphis (with Gay) and the Thunder (with another year of experience) should be better a year from now; the other three clubs have trouble making a similar boast.
Graydon Gordian, 48 Minutes of Hell: Fiction. With a possible Memphis-Dallas conference finals on our hands, which no one predicted, now seems like a good time to admit it's difficult to foresee such things. I would be surprised if neither made it that far in the future, but a West not dominated by the Lakers won't be easily augured.
Dan Feldman, PistonPowered: Fiction. As long as they don't panic, the Lakers aren't going away. The Spurs and Mavericks might not be done, either. The Nuggets, Trail Blazers, Rockets and even the Clippers have young talent, too. The West is just too crowded to predict the Grizzlies will reach the conference finals in a future season. I think Thunder will, though.
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5. Fact or Fiction: The Mavs should be favored in this year's West finals.
J.M. Poulard, WarriorsWorld: Fact. The Mavericks have the athletes (DeShawn Stevenson and Shawn Marion) to throw at Kevin Durant but they also have the big men (Tyson Chandler and Brendan Haywood) necessary to match up with the Grizzlies. And if that's not enough, you could make the case that regardless of their opponent, the Mavs will have the best player in the series.
Beckley Mason, HoopSpeak: Fiction. The Mavericks trounced the discordant Lakers by moving the ball like a laser beam bouncing off a series of mirrors, but both potential opponents will be well-suited to stifling this strength. Despite Memphis's physicality and defense, the Thunder cause the most worry because Dallas can't play super-subs J.A. Barea and Peja Stojakovic at the same time with Durant, Westbrook and Harden on the court.
John Hollinger, ESPN.com: Fact, slightly. While home-court advantage is less advantageous in the conference finals than in any other round, it still gives better than a two-thirds chance of advancing.
Graydon Gordian, 48 Minutes of Hell: Fact. No matter who wins the Memphis-OKC series, I think Dallas is the favorite. After the way they dismantled the Lakers, how could they not be? It's the most impressive series win so far this postseason, and despite what happened to San Antonio and Los Angeles, I still think Dallas deserves some credit for its regular-season record.
Dan Feldman, PistonPowered: Fact. The Lakers weren't nearly as vulnerable as Dallas made them look. By sweeping the 57-25 Lakers, the Mavericks became the first team to sweep an opponent with such a good record since the Lakers swept the 58-24 Spurs in 2001. As well as Oklahoma City and Memphis have played, they haven't done anything nearly that impressive.
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