Official NBA 2012-2013 Season Thread

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Life is easier for the league's big-market teams, but not so easy that a shrewd small-market team can't outflank them … especially with the help of a once-in-a-generation-type star.

Like, say, Tim Duncan or Kevin Durant.

Today's first edition of the Playoff Odds shows just how helpful having those two players has been for the championship ambitions of the Spurs and Thunder, respectively. (For a detailed explanation of the Playoff Odds, click here.) Last year's Western Conference finalists are favored to meet again to decide the conference crown, currently projecting as the league's only 60-win teams.


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Want more? There's an 88.7 percent chance that one of the two is the conference's top playoff seed (Memphis and the Clippers can still get in here), a 75.4 percent chance that one of the two is the conference champion, and a 58.0 percent chance that one of the two is our eventual champion.

Let me repeat that: 58.0 percent. The Finals is normally a roughly 50-50 proposition, but this tool is unimpressed enough with the likely Eastern Conference winner (New York or Miami) to install either the Spurs or Thunder as heavy favorites. "Spurs or Thunder," right now, looks like a better bet than the field.

I'm not sure I'd go that far in real life, which is where we get to the important discussion of the Playoff Odds' limitations. The way this method works is by taking every team's performance in the year-to-date at face value, by using their Power Ranking to play out the rest of the season 5,000 times. The obvious problem comes if one's team's strength over its final 60 or so games is likely to be radically different from its performance to date. In some cases these are obvious: Most notably, it seems likely Miami and the Lakers will play better than they have thus far.

The best and worst thing about the Playoff Odds is that they don't care about "seems." The Heat haven't played like a championship-caliber team on most nights, which is why it only gives them a 3.9 percent chance of doing so. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to argue that's probably too low.

Instead, consider this a statement about each team's trajectory. Miami doesn't strike us as a 53-29 team, but if they keep doing what they've been doing, that's where the Heat will end up. Similarly, the Lakers might not finish 42-40, but that's the kind of season they're heading toward so far.

This works better for teams that have been largely intact and aren't resting on their laurels. The top four seeds in the West, for instance, already seem pretty much locked in based on the results to date, and that's reflected in their projected finish.

From there, you can turn it around and focus on the outliers. The most notable thing about the Lakers is not the 42-40 next to their name, but that, barring injury, the top four teams in the West may already be too far gone for them to catch -- in that case, say hello to four straight series on the road if you want to win a title, L.A. Similarly, the takeaway from Miami's start so far is not that 3.9 percent in its title odds, but the fact that New York surprisingly represents a genuine foil for them to get out of the East.

There's one other important point to consider, which is that injuries aren't included. In most cases this isn't as much of an issue as people might think -- teams are normally playing without one or two rotation players, especially after the first couple of weeks, so "we beat them without Kyle Korver!" isn't really a game-changer.

But a few players make such a dramatic impact -- I'm looking at you, Dirk -- that their eventual return would likely have a hugely positive effect on the team in question. Because of that, Dallas is almost certainly undervalued in the Playoff Odds right now, as are other injury-hit teams like the Lakers, the Timberwolves, and -- if Andrew Bynum ever returns -- the Sixers.

Now that we've established the ground rules, here are a few other notable developments from Oddsville:



Expect the poles to widen

One thing you'll notice is that right now only six teams project to win more than 50 games, while the worst record in the league is just 25-57. In all likelihood, the final standings will be a lot more extreme than this.

One reason is that the Playoff Odds formula uses a "regression to the mean" function that tries not to overreact to crazy good (or bad) results from early-season games. But what's true for the individual isn't necessarily true for the group. Individually, it's likely that each of Charlotte, Washington, Toronto, Cleveland and Phoenix will land in the mid-20s in wins. But as a group, it's extremely likely that one of them face-plants south of 20. We just have no means of knowing which one.

And there is a second, more important factor completely beyond our control: tanking. Or let's call it, more gently, "motivation." After the trade deadline, bad teams tend to play even worse and good teams even better, because the bad ones rightfully are working on future stuff rather than trying to win immediately; in fact, several of them have traded their best players to the good teams to accelerate that process.

We see this most obviously among the lower-tier playoff teams. Every year, we get a bulge of teams in the low-to-mid-40s in wins, and a paucity of them in the mid-to-high-30s. Teams usually decide they're in or out and then act accordingly; we haven't modeled that yet.








The Lakers' playoff chances

The Lakers project to have a 55.5 percent chance to make the playoffs right now, which puts two interesting prospects in play.

First, did you realize that if the Lakers miss the playoffs, Phoenix ends up with a lottery pick? I have a feeling the Suns weren't really banking on this, and probably still aren't. But they can dare to dream, right?

Second, and more importantly, it shows just how much of a battle it's going to be for the Lakers to get into a decent playoff position. The Lakers have had injuries, yes, but look around them in the Playoff Odds: Minnesota and Dallas both have had their share of calamity, and Golden State is without its star center. The Lakers may eventually outdistance all these teams, but we've played a quarter of the season and they're tied for 11th place in the conference.








Golden State in the playoffs?

With the Warriors off to a 14-7 start, Golden State seems in good shape to usurp one of the West's playoffs spots -- their current odds stand at 81.6 percent, and as noted above they've done this mostly without Andrew Bogut.

If they're in, it creates a real mess for the hopefuls beneath them. One presumes that the top four teams will make it easily, and I think most still figure the Lakers will join them. If Golden State also makes it, that leaves Denver, Utah, Minnesota, Houston and Dallas fighting for two spots. If you further presume that Denver will recover from its early malaise and land nearer 50 wins than the 45 currently projected, that leaves just one spot for the rest.

All we really know is that somehow, some way, Houston will manage to finish ninth.



Drama in the East?

With several teams already having excused themselves from contention, the East playoff race looks far less interesting. Once again it's basically nine teams challenging for eight spots, although the surprising non-deadness of Orlando could keep this list at 10 for a while.

Right now the 12-9 Sixers are the ones on the outs, largely because an easy early schedule will turn against them, but if they get Bynum back they're likely to exceed that projection. Indiana should be better too, given Danny Granger's likely midseason return, and I hear the Bulls might have a decent player coming back to the lineup this spring as well.

Which leaves us with Milwaukee, the Houston of the East, battling to avert another ninth-place finish. Unlike the Rockets, it appears the Bucks may juuuust be able to nudge that boulder to the top of the hill.








New York, New York

And finally, yes, there are the Knicks, who project right now to land as the top seed in the East. They lead the Heat by half a game, own the tiebreaker and have four fewer road games left.

Regardless of whether Miami passes them, it doesn't appear anybody else will without some serious self-inflicted wounds from the Knicks. Such problems are still possible, especially depending on how they incorporate Amar'e Stoudemire, but the most likely outcome by far is that the Knicks go into the playoffs as Atlantic Division champions with a top-two playoff seed.

I'll have more on their newfound mojo later this week, but for now here's an appropriate Playoff Odds takeaway: the Knicks on course for the top seed. Doesn't mean they'll get there, with 62 games left to play, but it's a nice place to be all the same.


In the working world, you never hear an applicant say the company will help them improve their skills or be more productive; they want to know what you can do for them and aren't necessarily interested in what the company can do for you. They just want to hear you say it.



However, some very smart companies, including very sharp NBA teams, are constantly on the lookout for quality people they can help and in turn reap the benefits of that development. When helped just a little to hone their skills and talent, these blossoming individuals can do a lot for the franchise. Think of what the Los Angeles Lakers did for Lamar Odom -- taking a malcontent and seemingly selfish soul and turning him into a borderline star.



The Brooklyn Nets are now doing the same for forward/center Andray Blatche, who is quietly having a career year after seven frustrating seasons with a horrible Washington Wizards team. Now the Nets are reaping the benefits of their faith in not only Blatche, but also their own ability to reshape Blatche's surroundings, and thus, his approach to the game. If he was in Sacramento right now, none of this would be happening. Instead, he has blossomed in Brooklyn, and his future might finally look like it should.



Blatche's improvement
While it would be great to think that Blatche suddenly just made the decision to become the player we all knew he could be, the fact is, what really happened is quite different.



To understand how Blatche is playing so effectively, we should first recognize his mindset the past few years. Indeed, being stuck on a team going nowhere makes it difficult for any player to stay motivated; even for great players it can be a problem, let alone those who already struggle to motivate themselves.

Such was the case with Blatche in Washington. He recently criticized the Wizards, saying they didn't do all they could to help him, a high school draft pick in 2005, reach his potential.



I don't agree at all with that assessment. They did everything they could outside of one big problem: They had a head coach who simply could not reach him.



A turned-on and tuned-in Andray Blatche can be a franchise maker. He is that special. In a perfect world, he'd be able to showcase his set of special skills in any environment, with any coach, and with any type of teammates surrounding him. But Blatche, like many similar talents, simply lacks the ability to rise above the mess and pull his team out of the morass.

Playing for a team that starts the season with little to play for, it was too easy for him to turn inward and play for himself.

Blatche should be forever grateful to the Wizards for paying him a handsome salary, yet ironically, he should be even more grateful for his release.


Some players thrive by being selfishly motivated; Blatche does not. Freshly rewarded with a new contract, and lacking the realistic dream of being on a special team, he devolved into a lackluster scorer who mostly floated in games. In fact, he mostly floated to the perimeter. They lost game after game, and it meant nothing to him, clearly. So he only got worse, and so did his team. He had legal problems. Then more legal problems. The only way to break the cycle was for the franchise to walk away from him, which they did, wisely.

Today he's boasting a career-best PER (over 24, top 10 in the NBA), thanks in part to a career-best offensive rebound rate (more than double 2011-12) and defensive rebound rate. He's at a career low in turnover rate and is flirting with his career-best true shooting percentage. As an agile, skilled 7-foot forward, these numbers prove that he is now a force to be reckoned with.



And he's been vital with center Brook Lopez out of commission. According to Synergy Sports (thanks Joe Kaiser), the Nets' starting rotation with Blatche actually has a better plus/minus rating (plus-15) than with Lopez (plus-2).

Blatche should be forever grateful to the Wizards for paying him a handsome salary, yet ironically, he should be even more grateful for his release.



Look at the numbers

Certainly the impact the Nets have had on him is profound. Blatche is now playing for a team with a purpose. This team expects to compete for a ring, and it has a lot of experienced talent, far more than what Blatche had ever seen in Washington. Head coach Avery Johnson knows how to grind on guys and get them to buy in, and Blatche needs this. He will not embrace the grind on his own; he has to be pushed, pulled and challenged.



But it's not just from his coach. Deron Williams, Gerald Wallace and Joe Johnson all want to play important games in May and June, so they know they have to take the fall and winter months seriously. Those team leaders are holding Blatche accountable for his job duties night after night, and they are also experienced enough to help him play to his strengths.

[+] Enlarge
Steve Mitchell/US Presswire
A tree grows in Brooklyn, and it's a 7-footer named Andray Blatche.Look at where his shots are coming from, and you can see that he's determined to play more than ever near the rim, and his teammates are just as determined to take care of him for doing so. His 4.7 shots at the rim is the second-highest number from that distance in seven seasons, and his field goal percentage inside has increased as well to 67.5 percent.

More importantly, the number of those shots that were assisted is the second-highest rating for him since 2007 as well. He's working for his own shot less and relying on teammates to find him more -- a big reason his turnovers are down. His teammates are looking for him down low -- and this is key -- not anywhere else.

Blatche loves the medium- and long-range 2, but he's been a horrible shooter from that distance as he took more than five shots a game last season and missed most of them. This season, thanks to sticky-fingered teammates who won't give him the ball unless he's in the proper spots, he's taking just two shots a game from 10-23 feet. That's a big reason why his offensive rebound rate is so high. As of now, Blatche has the best offensive rebound rate among any power forward in the NBA. And among "qualified" centers, only Anderson Varejao has done one rebound better than Blatche . Contrast that to last season when 128 players were better on the offensive glass than Blatche.


Think about that: 129th to second in just a few months. He's living around the rim, getting more than half his shots close to the basket this season compared to just 30 percent last season and 36 percent in 2010-11. That is exactly what the Nets wanted from him.



His improved efforts on the glass are obvious, but his much-improved focus and determination on defense and excellence in transition finishes have been terrific. Blatche is making his living now banging with bigger, stronger men inside and is proving to be the best X factor in the league this season.



Look, he's not going to win the Sixth Man of the Year Award this season, but considering he's just 25 years old, that is now a fair and realistic goal for him as his career unfolds. For the first time in his career, Blatche has the help to both set goals and attain them. An individual such as Blatche needs the collective to be a success, and his surroundings in Brooklyn seem to be the perfect fit.
 
It will be interesting to see if Prok is really about it, winning that is. Nets are at 85m payroll and that's without this new and improved Blatche signed to a hefty contract. How far will he dig in his pockets.
 
Saw this on twitter the other day. Per 36 minutes,

Player A: 22.6 points, 11.3 rebs, 50.8% FG, 2.2 blocks

Player B: 21.0 points, 11.8 rebs, 51.7% FG, 2.9 blocks

Any guesses? 
nerd.gif

Player A: 25-year-old MVP-winning Tim Duncan

Player B: current 36-year-old Tim Duncan

Timmy. 
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If Lin gets the votes and gets selected to start in the All Star game, dont you think they should change the rule?
Isnt the game in Houston this year? Bogus as hell man....CP3 better start over him.

The game is in Houston next year. I doubt J Lin gets to start tho :lol
I do see Harden and Lin making the roster tho. If not then probably just Harden.
 
Love Remains Uncertain About Wolves
Dec 11, 2012 4:05 PM EST

Kevin Love continues to have reservations about his future with the Minnesota Timberwolves.

"I don't know who labels people stars, but even [T'wolves owner] Glen Taylor said: I don't think Kevin Love is a star, because he hasn't led us to the playoffs," Love told Yahoo! Sports. "I mean, it's not like I had much support out there.

"That's a tough pill to swallow."

Love was also once interrupted in the training room following a loss by David Kahn, who reportedly shoved a contract offer sheet into his hands.

"I'm not the one to always follow professional protocol – but I do know what it is, even at 24 years old," said Love.

Love missed the first part of the season with a broken hand sustained while doing knuckle pushups.

"Even people in my own organization were asking if it was a legitimate injury, people calling my honesty and integrity into question," Love says. "And that's what really hurt me."

Love believes in Rick Adelman, but Kahn's personnel moves continue to be looked at suspiciously.

"You walk into the locker room every year, and it's completely turned over," Love says. "There's new guys everywhere. And then it happens again and again. You start to wonder: Is there really a plan here? Is there really any kind of a … plan?"

Love signed a four-year, $62 million contract extension with the Wolves last year, far from the five-year, $80 million max deal he could have conceivably signed.

Love doesn't simply want the Wolves to be a playoff team, but also a title contender.

"And that's on me to do my part, to get us there," said Love, but the franchise won't have a benefit of doubt from him. "I'll have the leverage."
 
“I never said one time that I wanted to leave Atlanta,’’ Smith, whose surprising Hawks (12-6) play Wednesday at Orlando, said in an interview with FOX Sports Florida while in Miami for Monday’s 101-92 loss to the Heat. “It was always rumors and things. The moves that they made (last summer) and the success that we’re having, I am excited about what is going with this organization and I am considering strongly staying here. I haven’t ever had any thoughts that I wanted to leave.’’
 
"I don't know who labels people stars, but even [T'wolves owner] Glen Taylor said: I don't think Kevin Love is a star, because he hasn't led us to the playoffs," Love told Yahoo! Sports. "I mean, it's not like I had much support out there.


:D :D :D
 
ya love is good as gone.

should i just prep myself that he will be rocking purple and gold in a few years?
 
I'd like to point out that Love wanted to sign a five year maximum extension with Minnesota last year, but Kahn wanted to save it for Rubio. So with one eye on the future, Kahn alienated Love, who Rubio knows is tied to his future. :lol
 
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:eek Where do I even start? :lol

Love Remains Uncertain About Wolves

"I don't know who labels people stars, but even [T'wolves owner] Glen Taylor said: I don't think Kevin Love is a star, because he hasn't led us to the playoffs," Love told Yahoo! Sports.

"That's a tough pill to swallow."
Love was also once interrupted in the training room following a loss by David Kahn, who reportedly shoved a contract offer sheet into his hands.
"Even people in my own organization were asking if it was a legitimate injury, people calling my honesty and integrity into question," Love says. "And that's what really hurt me."
"I'll have the leverage."

167283


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By the time Love's contract ends, he'll be surrounded by a bunch of good young players in their primes - he'll have no reason to leave. Rubio, Love and Pekovic are a REALLY good core. Once they're all healthy this year, Love'll be fine.

The disrespect is puzzling though. Ownership/Kahn has disrespected Love more than I've seen any organization disrespect someone. He's been told he's not a starter in this league. They've told him he'll never be a star. Never be good enough to lead the team on his own. Offered a 3 year contract instead of 5 year contract. His injury has been doubted. Kahn is looked at as a joke around the league.

Fortunately for Minnesota, they have a top 3 coach in the league + a TON of really good, high basketball IQ players. They've been absurdly unhealthy so far but they'll be a really good team once everyone is back. Ricky, Love, Chase, Pek, AK47 is a really good squad. Love won't leave that kind of success + Adelman + Rubio. Lakers fans can keep dreaming though.
 
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