Playoff preview: Predicting the East.
Now that you've taken a tour through the first round of the Western Conference playoff bracket with Kevin Pelton, it's time to jump headfirst into the East.
But first, a lesson about the first round. Back in 2009, I dug into the previous 10 postseasons to see what regular-season matchups told us about the first-round matchups. The thinking was that what happens in the regular season stays in the regular season.
Turns out, that's actually not true. At all. That handful of regular-season games actually has some predictive value in the playoffs. For instance, in those 10 postseasons, every single favorite (No.1 through No. 4 seeds) that won its regular-season matchup against its first-round opponent ended up winning the series. That's a perfect 36-0 record.
So we can guarantee that the Miami Heat and the New York Knicks will win since they've won their respective regular-season series, right?
Well, not so fast. Since I ran the study in 2009, three favorites have actually bucked the trend, winning the regular-season matchup and losing the postseason battle. In 2010, the 2-seed Mavs lost to the 7-seed Spurs and the 4-seed Nuggets lost to the 5-seed Jazz, and last season the No. 1 seed Bulls lost to the 8-seed 76ers.
Two of those upsets were injury-related anomalies, as the home-court teams lost key members during the series (Derrick Rose for the Bulls and Nene for the Nuggets). In the Mavericks' case, they were beating up on a battered Spurs team in the regular season before Tim Duncan and Tony Parker mended their wounds for the postseason run.
Here's the full breakdown:
Favorite Win% (Reg. season) Teams Upsets Upset%
1.000 15 0 0.0
.750 29 2 6.9
.667 14 1 7.1
Split 30 7 23.3
.333 9 6 66.7
.250 14 5 35.7
.000 1 1 100.0
Total 122 22 18.0
So now the favorites are 58-3, which is still pretty darn good. Barring an injury, the Heat and Knicks should feel pretty good about reaching the Eastern Conference semifinals. The Brooklyn Nets and Indiana Pacers, though? History tells us that they have their work cut out for them (more on that later).
Keep in mind, this regular season has been one uniquely ravaged by injuries to stars, as Pelton recently pointed out, so the regular-season matchups may not hold as much water this time around. But generally speaking, keep a close eye on those regular-season series results.
So who's going to win? Here's one man's opinion on how the Eastern Conference first round will shake out.
(1) Miami Heat vs. (
Milwaukee Bucks
Season series: Heat 3, Bucks 1
Projection: Heat win 100 percent of the time.
The Heatles are 37-2 over their past 39 games. The Bucks' only win in their past seven games came against a team that played Jeremy Lamb 41 minutes. In other words, the Bucks stop here.
Yes, Milwaukee can hang its hat on the fact that it beat the Heat once this season, but a lot has changed since that Dec. 29 game. Exhibit A: Josh Harrellson was the first big man off the bench for Miami. Chris Andersen hadn't taken flight yet.
The Bucks look different as well since that win. Brandon Jennings recently claimed that Milwaukee matches up nicely against the Heat. He's right ... as long as he's riding pine. Since J.J. Redick joined the team in February, the Bucks have outscored opponents by 10.8 points per 100 possessions with Jennings on the bench, according to NBA.com/stats. When Jennings is on the court? The Bucks trail by 7.9 points every 100 possessions. Perhaps more importantly, the Bucks are minus-36 with the shot-happy Jennings on the floor against the Heat in the Redick era and plus-10 with the chucking point guard on the bench.
Until Milwaukee figures out that the Monta Ellis-Redick backcourt duo is its best shot at winning, better get the brooms out.
Prediction: Heat in 4
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(2) New York Knicks vs. (7) Boston Celtics
Season series: Knicks 3, Celtics 1
Projection: Knicks win 86.8 percent of the time.
Which perennial NBA Defensive Player of the Year candidate will show up? That's the big question. Kevin Garnett (ankle) has been limited to five games since March 16. Tyson Chandler (back) has played in four. Both teams are looking at their local YMCA for backups. Kurt Thomas retired, Rasheed Wallace re-retired and Marcus Camby might as well have. Two months ago, Shavlik Randolph was playing in China and now he has become the Celtics' best big man off the bench.
But no bigs, no problem. This series is shaping up to be a small-ball 3-party with the Knicks having the clear upper hand there (first in makes and attempts, and fifth in percentage). Throw in the fact that Stoudemire's absence makes the Knicks more loyal to their spread-the-floor mentality and it's not looking good for the Rajon Rondo-less Celtics.
If Garnett and Paul Pierce turn back the clock and move without limitations, they can take this series. The ageless duo always seems to flip the switch come playoff time. But either way, I'm not convinced that even a healthier Celtics squad can score enough (20th since Rondo's injury) to take advantage of the Knicks' middling defense (tied for 16th). The Knicks should win their first playoff series since 2000, but it might take seven games to get there.
Prediction: Knicks in 7
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(3) Indiana Pacers vs. (6) Atlanta Hawks
Season series: Pacers 2, Hawks 2
Projection: Pacers win 74.5 percent of the time.
Though the Pacers hit a bit of a wall in April against some tough competition, they still have the top defense in the land, limiting opponents to just 96.6 points per 100 possessions on the season. The lingering question, of course, was whether they could put enough points on the board to contend for the Eastern Conference crown.
But as Roy Hibbert goes, so do the Pacers. Hibbert's turnaround on the offensive end has calmed those concerns a bit, as the big man has averaged 15.7 points on 50.8 percent shooting since the All-Star break and led the Pacers to the 11th-best offense over that time. And that's even with Paul George hitting the wall.
But it's Hibbert's work protecting the basket that will dictate the series against the Hawks, a team that generates most of its points at the rim. Pacers opponents shoot 48.1 percent inside the paint, which is by far the lowest percentage across the league. And the Hawks are an abysmal offensive rebounding team ever since Zaza Pachulia went down, so good luck getting those second chances. The Hawks may have split the regular-season series, but those two wins came with the calendar still reading 2012 -- well before Hibbert rounded into form.
Predictions: Pacers in 6
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(4) Brooklyn Nets vs. (5) Chicago Bulls
Season series: Bulls 3, Nets 1
Projection: Nets win 58.3 percent of the time.
The Bulls may have taken the regular-season series, but I'm skeptical that record matters much in this case and here's why:
Joakim Noah appears to be losing the battle with plantar fasciitis.
We don't know whether foot issues were brought on by the fact that Noah ran more miles per game than any player in the league this season, according to fancy SportVU 3D cameras, but it probably didn't help. Noah was a mess in his return to the court on Wednesday, which unfortunately is to be expected for those dealing with plantar fasciitis. Noah remains the fulcrum of the Bulls' offensive attack without Derrick Rose, but the defensive side of the ball falls apart with Noah absent (five points worse per 100 possessions, according to NBA.com).
In the end, this prediction comes down to the fact that Deron Williams' and Brook Lopez's wheels are healthy and Noah's are not.
Prediciton: Nets in 7
But first, a lesson about the first round. Back in 2009, I dug into the previous 10 postseasons to see what regular-season matchups told us about the first-round matchups. The thinking was that what happens in the regular season stays in the regular season.
Turns out, that's actually not true. At all. That handful of regular-season games actually has some predictive value in the playoffs. For instance, in those 10 postseasons, every single favorite (No.1 through No. 4 seeds) that won its regular-season matchup against its first-round opponent ended up winning the series. That's a perfect 36-0 record.
So we can guarantee that the Miami Heat and the New York Knicks will win since they've won their respective regular-season series, right?
Well, not so fast. Since I ran the study in 2009, three favorites have actually bucked the trend, winning the regular-season matchup and losing the postseason battle. In 2010, the 2-seed Mavs lost to the 7-seed Spurs and the 4-seed Nuggets lost to the 5-seed Jazz, and last season the No. 1 seed Bulls lost to the 8-seed 76ers.
Two of those upsets were injury-related anomalies, as the home-court teams lost key members during the series (Derrick Rose for the Bulls and Nene for the Nuggets). In the Mavericks' case, they were beating up on a battered Spurs team in the regular season before Tim Duncan and Tony Parker mended their wounds for the postseason run.
Here's the full breakdown:
Favorite Win% (Reg. season) Teams Upsets Upset%
1.000 15 0 0.0
.750 29 2 6.9
.667 14 1 7.1
Split 30 7 23.3
.333 9 6 66.7
.250 14 5 35.7
.000 1 1 100.0
Total 122 22 18.0
So now the favorites are 58-3, which is still pretty darn good. Barring an injury, the Heat and Knicks should feel pretty good about reaching the Eastern Conference semifinals. The Brooklyn Nets and Indiana Pacers, though? History tells us that they have their work cut out for them (more on that later).
Keep in mind, this regular season has been one uniquely ravaged by injuries to stars, as Pelton recently pointed out, so the regular-season matchups may not hold as much water this time around. But generally speaking, keep a close eye on those regular-season series results.
So who's going to win? Here's one man's opinion on how the Eastern Conference first round will shake out.
(1) Miami Heat vs. (
Milwaukee BucksSeason series: Heat 3, Bucks 1
Projection: Heat win 100 percent of the time.
The Heatles are 37-2 over their past 39 games. The Bucks' only win in their past seven games came against a team that played Jeremy Lamb 41 minutes. In other words, the Bucks stop here.
Yes, Milwaukee can hang its hat on the fact that it beat the Heat once this season, but a lot has changed since that Dec. 29 game. Exhibit A: Josh Harrellson was the first big man off the bench for Miami. Chris Andersen hadn't taken flight yet.
The Bucks look different as well since that win. Brandon Jennings recently claimed that Milwaukee matches up nicely against the Heat. He's right ... as long as he's riding pine. Since J.J. Redick joined the team in February, the Bucks have outscored opponents by 10.8 points per 100 possessions with Jennings on the bench, according to NBA.com/stats. When Jennings is on the court? The Bucks trail by 7.9 points every 100 possessions. Perhaps more importantly, the Bucks are minus-36 with the shot-happy Jennings on the floor against the Heat in the Redick era and plus-10 with the chucking point guard on the bench.
Until Milwaukee figures out that the Monta Ellis-Redick backcourt duo is its best shot at winning, better get the brooms out.
Prediction: Heat in 4
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(2) New York Knicks vs. (7) Boston Celtics
Season series: Knicks 3, Celtics 1
Projection: Knicks win 86.8 percent of the time.
Which perennial NBA Defensive Player of the Year candidate will show up? That's the big question. Kevin Garnett (ankle) has been limited to five games since March 16. Tyson Chandler (back) has played in four. Both teams are looking at their local YMCA for backups. Kurt Thomas retired, Rasheed Wallace re-retired and Marcus Camby might as well have. Two months ago, Shavlik Randolph was playing in China and now he has become the Celtics' best big man off the bench.
But no bigs, no problem. This series is shaping up to be a small-ball 3-party with the Knicks having the clear upper hand there (first in makes and attempts, and fifth in percentage). Throw in the fact that Stoudemire's absence makes the Knicks more loyal to their spread-the-floor mentality and it's not looking good for the Rajon Rondo-less Celtics.
If Garnett and Paul Pierce turn back the clock and move without limitations, they can take this series. The ageless duo always seems to flip the switch come playoff time. But either way, I'm not convinced that even a healthier Celtics squad can score enough (20th since Rondo's injury) to take advantage of the Knicks' middling defense (tied for 16th). The Knicks should win their first playoff series since 2000, but it might take seven games to get there.
Prediction: Knicks in 7
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(3) Indiana Pacers vs. (6) Atlanta Hawks
Season series: Pacers 2, Hawks 2
Projection: Pacers win 74.5 percent of the time.
Though the Pacers hit a bit of a wall in April against some tough competition, they still have the top defense in the land, limiting opponents to just 96.6 points per 100 possessions on the season. The lingering question, of course, was whether they could put enough points on the board to contend for the Eastern Conference crown.
But as Roy Hibbert goes, so do the Pacers. Hibbert's turnaround on the offensive end has calmed those concerns a bit, as the big man has averaged 15.7 points on 50.8 percent shooting since the All-Star break and led the Pacers to the 11th-best offense over that time. And that's even with Paul George hitting the wall.
But it's Hibbert's work protecting the basket that will dictate the series against the Hawks, a team that generates most of its points at the rim. Pacers opponents shoot 48.1 percent inside the paint, which is by far the lowest percentage across the league. And the Hawks are an abysmal offensive rebounding team ever since Zaza Pachulia went down, so good luck getting those second chances. The Hawks may have split the regular-season series, but those two wins came with the calendar still reading 2012 -- well before Hibbert rounded into form.
Predictions: Pacers in 6
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(4) Brooklyn Nets vs. (5) Chicago Bulls
Season series: Bulls 3, Nets 1
Projection: Nets win 58.3 percent of the time.
The Bulls may have taken the regular-season series, but I'm skeptical that record matters much in this case and here's why:
Joakim Noah appears to be losing the battle with plantar fasciitis.
We don't know whether foot issues were brought on by the fact that Noah ran more miles per game than any player in the league this season, according to fancy SportVU 3D cameras, but it probably didn't help. Noah was a mess in his return to the court on Wednesday, which unfortunately is to be expected for those dealing with plantar fasciitis. Noah remains the fulcrum of the Bulls' offensive attack without Derrick Rose, but the defensive side of the ball falls apart with Noah absent (five points worse per 100 possessions, according to NBA.com).
In the end, this prediction comes down to the fact that Deron Williams' and Brook Lopez's wheels are healthy and Noah's are not.
Prediciton: Nets in 7
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I jokingly thought about suing the league for the lockout.
