2. Corbin Burnes, RHP
Age: 29
HT: 6-3 WT: 245
2024 (Orioles): 3.4 WAR
Career: 17.2 WAR
Agent: Boras Corporation 2024 salary: $15.64 million
This will be the fifth consecutive year that Corbin Burnes finishes in the top eight in Cy Young Award voting. Burnes went 15-9 with 181 strikeouts and 1.096 WHIP in his first season in the American League after the Orioles traded for him in February. He’s pitched more than 190 innings three years in a row and is 60-36 with a 3.19 ERA over 199 games (138 starts) in his career. He will be — and should be — the most sought-after free-agent pitcher this offseason.
Best team fits: Mets, Dodgers, Red Sox, Orioles
Salary comps: Stephen Strasburg (7 years, $245M); Jacob deGrom (5 years, $185M); Aaron Nola (7 years, $172M)
Contract prediction: 7 years, $247 million
3. Roki Sasaki, RHP
Age: 22
HT: 6-2 WT: 187
It is unclear if Roki Sasaki’s team in Japan, the Chiba Lotte Marines, will allow him to leave for MLB this offseason, but with the Marines out of the NPB playoffs, we should know soon. If he is coming, he will be the most coveted international free agent as the Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, Red Sox and Diamondbacks all committed significant resources to scout him this month, including sending top executives to see him pitch.
How much teams would be willing to offer Sasaki could depend on his medical reports as he didn’t pitch for two months in the middle of the year because of arm troubles, which limited him to 18 games and 111 innings. (He pitched just 91 innings in 2023 due to an oblique injury and has topped the 100-inning mark only once in his career.)
However, he dominated down the stretch this season, averaging 100.5 mph with his fastball and reaching 103 mph. Since Sasaki is under 25, he would be subject to international bonus pool restrictions; if he’s posted after this season, he’d only be allowed to sign a minor-league contract, which is what Ohtani did with the Angels in 2017.
Best team fits: Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, Diamondbacks, Red Sox
Salary comps: None
Contract prediction: Minor-league contract
11. Willy Adames, SS
Age: 29
B: R T: R HT: 6-1 WT: 219
2024 (Brewers): 3.1 WAR
Career: 21.5
Agent: CAA Sports 2024 salary: $12.25 million
I expected Willy Adames to be traded to the Dodgers after Corey Seager departed as a free agent in 2021, but it never happened because the Brewers remained a contender and never made him available. With Adames now reaching free agency, the Dodgers should be viewed as heavy favorites to land him. President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman had Adames in his organization for a couple of years when he was GM of the Rays and has always been a big fan of the player. Adames is a perfect fit for the left side of the Dodgers’ infield.
Best team fits: Dodgers, Brewers, Braves
Salary comps: Dansby Swanson (7 years, $177M); Javier Báez (6 years, $140M); Trevor Story (6 years, $140M)
Contract prediction: 6 years, $150 million
15. Shane Bieber, RHP
Age: 29
HT: 6-3 WT: 200
2024 (Guardians): 0.7 WAR
Career: 17.7 WAR
Agent: Rosenhaus Sports Representation 2024 salary: $13.13 million
Shane Bieber will likely be my pick for best value signing this offseason because of his upside. The AL Cy Young Award winner in 2020, he finished fourth in the voting in 2019 and seventh in 2022. He’s a two-time All-Star and a former Gold Glove winner.
He made only two starts this year before undergoing Tommy John surgery, which will put him out of service until at least next summer. However, if he comes back healthy, whoever signs him might have a Cy Young-caliber pitcher for the second half of the season.
Best team fits: Dodgers, Rangers, Guardians, Padres
Salary comps: N/A. I don’t see a good comp for Bieber in his specific situation.
Contract prediction: Low base salary with incentives for games started and innings pitched, plus option years
17. Jack Flaherty, RHP
Age: 29
HT: 6-4 WT: 225
2024 (Tigers, Dodgers): 3.1 WAR
Career: 13.2 WAR
Agent: CAA Sports 2024 salary: $14 million
Jack Flaherty was the best starting pitcher traded at the deadline after logging a 2.95 ERA with 133 strikeouts and 19 walks in 18 starts for the Tigers, who dealt him because he was an impending free agent and they didn’t think they were a contender. (What a run they had!)
The Tigers had a preliminary trade agreement in place with the Yankees, but New York backed out of the deal over concerns about his medical records. Flaherty was then traded to the Dodgers, who had no problem with the medical risk. He delivered for the Dodgers and was their best starter for the rest of the regular season, going 6-2 with a 3.58 ERA in 10 starts.
He showed his ability to miss bats this season with 194 strikeouts (in 162 innings), his highest total since 2019, when he finished fourth in the NL Cy Young Award voting. He’s only 29. If teams aren’t concerned about the medical risk associated with his back issues, he should land a three-year pact.
Best team fits: Dodgers, Mets, Twins, Tigers
Salary comps: Lance McCullers Jr. (5 years, $85M); Mitch Keller (5 years, $77M); Sonny Gray (3 years, $75M); Pablo López (4 years, $73.5M); Kyle Hendricks (4 years, $55.5M)
Contract prediction: 3 years, $68 million
18. Tomoyuki Sugano, RHP
Age: 35
HT: 6-1 WT: 198
Tomoyuki Sugano has gone 136-75 with a 2.45 ERA and 1,596 strikeouts in 12 NPB seasons with the Yomiuri Giants. This year he logged a 1.67 ERA and 0.945 WHIP in 24 starts. He is a two-time winner of the Sawamura Award, which in Japan is equivalent to the Cy Young Award. Sugano has a six-pitch mix and he pounds the strike zone with elite command and control.
Best team fits: Padres, Rangers, Dodgers, Orioles, Guardians, Mets
Salary comps: N/A
Contract prediction: None at this time
21. Teoscar Hernández, LF
Age: 32
B: R T: R HT: 6-2 WT: 215
2024 (Dodgers): 4.3 WAR
Career: 17.1 WAR
Agent: Republik Sports 2024 salary: $23.5 million
Teoscar Hernández made a smart move last offseason in signing with the Dodgers. He accepted a one-year deal with a high AAV and got to join a loaded lineup filled with future Hall of Famers. Hernández then did what he does best — hit home runs, a career-high 33 of them, to go with 99 RBIs. He’s a below-average defender in left field but a strong clubhouse presence with his energy and enthusiasm.
Best team fit: Dodgers, Nationals, Tigers, Royals
Salary comps: George Springer (6 years, $150M); Nick Castellanos (5 years, $100M); Starling Marte (4 years, $78M); Jorge Soler (3 years, $42M)
Contract prediction: 3 years, $75 million
22. Walker Buehler, RHP
Age: 30
HT: 6-2 WT: 185
2024 (Dodgers): -1.3 WAR
Career: 12.2 WAR
Agent: Excel Sports Management 2024 salary: $8.025 million
The way Walker Buehler pitched for much of the regular season (1-6, 5.38 ERA), it didn’t appear he would regain his past form after returning from a second Tommy John surgery. But he made a big impression in Game 3 of the NLCS, when he dominated the Mets over four shutout innings. Buehler will probably have to sign a one-year contract with a mutual option, then show he can pitch a full season healthy and rebuild his value.
Best team fit: Dodgers
Salary comps: None
Contract prediction: 1 year, $10 million with incentives
38. Blake Treinen, RHP
Age: 36
HT: 6-0 WT: 224
2024 (Dodgers): 1.4 WAR
Career: 12.4 WAR
Agent: Apex Baseball 2024 salary: $1 million ($4.5M AAV for two-year, $9M deal)
After missing most of 2022 and all of 2023 because of a torn capsule in his right shoulder that eventually required surgery, Blake Treinen miraculously returned this season as the dominant high-leverage reliever he was in 2021. His sinker is back to the mid-90s with serious drop, and his sweeper is a wipeout pitch that batters hit just .120 against. He posted a 1.93 ERA in 50 appearances.
Best team fits: Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Cubs
Salary comps: Emilio Pagán (2 years, $16M); Wandy Peralta, (2 years, $16.5M)
Contract prediction: 2 years, $17 million