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I don't think that Tormund dies because he plays a pivotal role in the show as leader of the free folk.
I also don't think that Hound will die because he seems like he wants to die and this world seems to play cruel tricks on those types by keeping them alive.
Don't think Gendry will die because they literally just brought him back into the show. Seems pointless to kill him off now.
In my mind that leaves Beric, Thoros, and Jorah Mormont. One or more of those three are going to die next ep, IMHO.
word, I agree with your reasons for keeping Tormund and the Hound.
They'll probably keep Jorah alive just so he can see Jon smash his Khaleesi