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Blah Blah Blah! It All Comes Down to WHO WANTS IT MORE!Originally Posted by Rexanglorum
I am trying to look at this game from neutral and rational perspective but as a life long, fourth generation Laker fan I am worried that even my best attempts to breakdown this game are clouded with bias. Take my prediction with a grain of salt, I know I am.
I see the Lakers winning by about 10 points, something like 90-80. The reason that I am confident is because the Lakers do not need to do anything extraordinary to win. No one on the Celtics commands a double team and their ability to shut down the Celtics is entirely in the Lakers' own hands. Even if the Laker offense stinks in game 7 (something that is very possible) they will have a great chance if they simply box out, committ less then 18-20 turnovers, sprint back on D and just be somewhat judicious in the half court on defense.
If they box out, they take away the second chance points, which have been a huge source of points for the Celtics, whenever they have won.
If they reasonably limit turnovers and sprint back on D, The Celtics are in real trouble. Transition and even just semi transition are the conditions where Rondo thrives and where he gets himself layups and assists for his teammates. The Lakers have it entirely in their power to remove those conditions. Even if the Lakers shoot a low percentage themselves, if they get back on D and do not give up an excessive amount of turn overs, they will make the Celtics have to play five on five against a set defense.
Finally, when the Lakers are guarding against half court sets, whoever guards Rondo has to pressure the ball. Because the strategy is to give him the open shot, the Lakers guards have sometimes backed so far off of him that they let him manuever where ever he wants and to use his great passing ability to manufacture points for all of his teammates. When Kobe and Fish play him closely, he is much less able to run the offense and that forces the Celtics's best offensive players to go one on one and that means that Garnett and Pierce must score a ton and to do so efficiently and that is asking a lot because Artest and Gasol can guard those guys one on one.
Even if the Celtics players can make some tough shots and the Lakers shoot poorly as a team (which is very possible because Boston will bring their outstanding defense), if the Lakers do those very doable and mundane things that I mentioned, it is unlikely that Celtics will be able to score enough, plain and simple.
I can only hope that the crowd infuses the Lakers with the energy needed to go out and take this game and this series. I know the Celtics will bring the intensity and toughness.