Official 2023 Chicago Cubs Season Thread Vol: (17-17)

[Lake Shore Drive]

Yup.
15.8 offered to Fowler
Cubs also claimed reliever Ryan Cook off waivers from the red sox.

 

[sportsjunkie]

Lets make on move on Jayson Hayward or Upton

 

[CP1708]

At the GM Meetings this week – President Meetings? – Chicago Cubs President of Baseball Operations Theo Epstein shared some thoughts about the teams’ ability to spend extravagantly this offseason, and I’ll hope that no one was surprised by what he said.

Epstein explained that, while not impossible, striking two big financial deals this offseason would require creativity (ESPN, CSN, Cubs.com). The Cubs’ full financial might won’t be realized until the next TV deal is much closer (the current contracts run through the 2019 season), which means we won’t see the Cubs suddenly dolling out multiple nine-figure contracts like so many lollipops on Halloween.

Indeed, Epstein cautioned that doing even one big thing will probably require some creativity. That could come in the form of a creative contract structure (as was the case last year with Jon Lester), and/or trades to free up some salary/fill other holes, and/or getting some value deals in the market to plug other holes. Some of the predictions out there for the Cubs’ free agent activity this offseason are almost certainly too aggressive.

The big caveat here, of course, is that, however much the Cubs can add to payroll this offseason thanks to increased revenues in 2015, the front office simply isn’t going to tip their hand. It doesn’t help in trades, and it doesn’t help in free agent negotiations. The less other parties know about what the Cubs can and cannot do, the better. (Of course, I consider it a part of my job to estimate what they can and cannot do, and I suspect they’ll be able to add something in the $30 to $40 million range this offseason in 2016 payroll (and more if they trade away contracts and/or non-tender arbitration-eligible players). That is not to say they will do that, because the additions would still have to make sense. The front office will not add just to add.)

Also, remember: this time last year, Epstein was eschewing the idea that the Cubs could or would sign two nine-figure pitchers in a single offseason, and the context was about the Cubs going after two of Jon Lester, Max Scherzer, and James Shields. As we know, the Cubs not only signed Lester, they went hard after Shields a few months later because his anticipated price tag had fallen significantly.

The point there is simply that it’s hard to predict exactly how things are going to shake out. Signing two starting pitchers to nine-figure deals in a single offseason is, indeed, a risky, and probably inadvisable thing for almost any team to do. (The same is mostly true even if one of those two players is a positional player.) I don’t expect the Cubs to do it this offseason.

But might they surprise in some of their pursuits? Might the price tags become a pleasant surprise at some point this offseason, allowing them to try and do more than they thought would be financially possible? Absolutely.

Don’t expect SIGN ALL THE PLAYERS! But you also don’t have to expect SIT ON ALL THE HANDS! The Cubs will be active. They will make compelling additions. And they will be, as Epstein says, rather creative.

 

[CP1708]

They are primed to win now, and there's no excuse for this high-revenue team not to spend. They made it to the NLCS a year or two ahead of schedule, and the future is bright, especially with the right additions. They are expected to look at the big pitchers -- Price, Greinke and Cueto -- with perhaps particular interest in Price, who is connected through beloved manager Joe Maddon.

Positionally, they are in excellent shape but will look at the center field market. The first choice may be their own free agent Dexter Fowler, but they could also consider Denard Span, Colby Rasmus, Austin Jackson or perhaps even Cespedes or Heyward. The guess here is they are more apt to spend big on pitching since that's where the greater need lies, but in reality, they should be able to afford to do what they wish.

"It's a new phase for Cubs ownership. It's a championship phase, it's not a rebuilding phase," agent Scott Boras proclaimed

The Cubs will try to lock up Jake Arrieta long-term this winter. That makes sense from both sides, as Arrieta has transformed from a struggling quadruple-A player to superstar in two short years ... Starlin Castro will be the team's second baseman. They are getting calls of interest on Javier Baez.

Baez could be the one shipped out for a pitcher eh? Hmmmm

 

[CP1708]

Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant was named the unanimous winner of the National League Rookie of the Year Monday after batting .275 with 26 home runs and 99 RBI's to go along with a .369 on-base percentage in 2015.

Bryant, 23, tied for the major league home run lead among first year players while leading all full time NL rookies in on-base, slugging and OPS. He also led all NL hitters in strikeouts with 199 but came through when the Cubs needed it most hitting .292 with a .417 on-base percentage with runners in scoring position.

"He is always trying to learn and improve and doesn't have fear of making adjustments," Cubs hitting coach John Mallee said Monday. "He wants to be the best player in the game."

Bryant also has deceptive speed and base running ability swiping 13 bases last season, third most for NL rookies. At one point Cubs manager Joe Maddon called him the "best base runner" on the team. Bryant was the second overall pick of the 2013 draft after taking home the Golden Spikes award as best amateur player after three years at the University of San Diego.

 

[sportsjunkie]

Congrats to Kris!!!!!!!!! BLESS YOU KRIS!!!!!!!

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

Congrats to Kris!!!!!

Well deserved

 

[CP1708]

The cold, brutal reality of baseball is that, to teams, prospects are, among other things, assets. Currency is the usual analogy used, but as analogies go that one has at least one hurdle. With currency, any dollar is as good as another. That is definitely not the case with prospects.

A better analogy might be real estate. Not all properties are equally valuable, but if the price is right you generally always find a buyer. And if you know what you are looking for, you can score some real bargains that net quite a profit as well. Mistakes, though, can be very punishing.

The Cubs look to be buyers this winter, and that means it is very possible that we will see some prospects exit the farm system in trades. For the sake of this article I’m largely going to ignore Rule 5 considerations except to note, right now, that Rule 5 rostering decisions could lead to some players being dealt or released before the really significant trades ever get underway.

The question, then, is which prospects are the Cubs most likely to trade?

For the right price, I honestly believe the Cubs would trade absolutely anyone on the roster. The caveat to such thinking is that the Cubs price for some players will realistically never be met. In prospect terms, that means pretty much anyone in the organization could be included in a deal. Some, of course, are more available than others.

Even if I limit myself to just those prospects on the current Top 40 Prospects List, I can still find plenty of reasonable trade candidates. Some of these prospects could be a key piece in a major trade while others may only project as additional pieces in smaller deals, but all are players that I think will come up in trade conversations this winter.

In order of their appearance on the Top 40, here are some of the prospects likely to appear in rumors in the coming months.

Willson Contreras, C

I think the Cubs will be reluctant to part with Contreras, but he will be asked about quite a bit. Defensively he looks like a major league starter in the making, and at the plate his approach is exactly what the Cubs need: high walks, low strikeouts, and good power. It isn’t hard to imagine him as a .300/.380/.425 kind of guy in the majors. A line like that would look very nice behind the plate for virtually anyone.

Including the Cubs. Short of a deal for star level talent (likely in the pitching department) I don’t see Contreras being dealt, but the Cubs could easily be looking to acquire star level talent (particularly pitching) via trade. We’ll see.

Billy McKinney, OF

Quality corner defense comes in a package with a disciplined, left handed contact oriented swing. He looks like a relatively safe bet to have a major league future, so I don’t doubt that teams will be asking about him. Right now it looks like the Cubs will have no shortage of corner outfielders, though, and moving McKinney might make sense.

Gleyber Torres, SS

Torres is (1) a shortstop who was (2) young for his league and (3) enjoyed a lot of offensive success in the pitching-friendly Midwest League. Those three factors are going to push up his value, possibly to the point where some team weak in middle infield prospects will value him too highly. The Cubs won’t let him go cheaply, but he could definitely be a part of a major trade package.

Pierce Johnson, RHP

The Cubs need pitching, so why would they trade one of their best high-minors starting pitching prospects? Possibly as part of the package to land a young starter. There is a tendency when teams deal for young, very good major league pitching to send high ceiling pitching prospects in return, and Johnson is a good candidate to fill that role in a possible package.

Jeimer Candelario, 3B

If I were a General Manager, this is the guy I would be calling the Cubs about. He can get on base, hit for power, and is blocked at every likely position by a young player already in Wrigley. This switch hitter could be a middle of the lineup kind of guy, and I think there will be teams eyeing him with that possibility in mind.

Albert Almora, OF

Almora is tough to value thanks to his odd season splits, but if you buy into the second half bat (I do) then he is one of the more premium prospects in the system. The Cubs could use an elite defender in center, though, so if the Cubs agree the bat will play in the majors then Almora would be unlikely to be moved short of a mega-deal. I suspect Almora is staying around and will be in Wrigley by the end of the year as a defensive replacement if nothing else.

Mark Zagunis, OF

Zagunis is an on base machine, and that could make him attractive to some organizations (including his current one). He’s been at his on-base best in the Arizona Fall League, and that exposure isn’t going to hurt his chances of coming up in trade talks. The Cubs are loaded with outfielders in the minors; dealing Zagunis could make some sense.

Christian Villanueva, 3B

Villanueva has a major league glove and a bat that is good enough keep him employed on a lot of teams. He is also completely blocked in the Cubs organization, and there are players coming up behind him who will need playing time (Candelario in particular). One way or another, I don’t think Candelario will be a Cub when April gets here.

Eloy Jimenez, OF

Teams looking for their own version of a Bryant-sized bat could do a lot worse than ask about Jimenez. He is still raw, but there is no questioning his potential power. Trading for him this early in his career could be a risky move for the acquiring team, but it is a risk that could have a huge pay off. If the Cubs do trade for a cost controlled elite-level pitcher, Jimenez is likely to be a candidate to go the other way.

Bijan Rademacher, OF

A left-handed hitter with a high walk rate, a low strikeout rate, and a decent blend of power and speed, Rademacher still manages to be overlooked in the Cubs’ farm system. I think he could be fourth outfielder, but that is going to be a tough job to earn in Wrigley in the coming years.

Dan Vogelbach, 1B/DH

There is just no room for him on the Cubs roster, and everyone knows it. There is clear value in the bat, though not as much as if his power had been a touch louder in Double A this season, and I don’t think there will be a shortage of American League teams interested in taking him off the Cubs’ hands. I don’t think Vogelbach alone will bring a substantial return, but I do think he’ll be dealt this winter.

I believe I’ve been saying that every six months for about two years now. One of these day’s I’ll be right. You watch.

One final thing to keep in mind regarding trading prospects in general: just because they have them doesn’t mean they need to trade them now. There will be a lot of potential trades this winter, and some of them may even be good ones, but that doesn’t mean the team has to make a trade. Now, as when they were in the middle of the rebuild, having the patience to wait for the right deal is going to be key.

 

[CP1708]

Chicago Cubs manager Joe Maddon won his third Manager of the Year award after guiding the Cubs to a 97-65 record and a berth in the NLCS.

Maddon got eighteen first-place votes for 124 points from the Baseball Writers' Association of America in balloting announced Tuesday.

The Cardinals' Mike Matheny finished second and the Mets' Terry Collins finished third.

Maddon, 61, expertly guided a team loaded with talent but not much experience. After hovering just above .500 for more than half the season, the Cubs took off in August and September, finishing 19-9 each month. Maddon deftly handled the promotions of top picks Addison Russell, Kyle Schwarber and newly minted rookie of the year Kris Bryant by giving them all major responsibilities but keeping the pressure at a minimum and maintaining a relaxed locker room.

His best move came in handling All-Star shortstop Starlin Castro, who struggled mightily for most of the season. Castro was benched in favor of the 21-year-old Russell, then moved to second base. Whatever buttons Maddon pushed with Castro worked, as he thrived at the plate and at his new position in the final weeks of the season. The Cubs picked up their play after the delicate handling of the situation.

Maddon's reputation as a player's manager came with him from Tampa Bay, where he won his previous two manager of the year awards. In Chicago, he instituted pajama night on an overnight flight, brought zoo animals to the ballpark for players' families and stressed a "less is more" attitude about the game. He often canceled batting practice, citing it as the "most overrated" part of the game.

Maddon set the relaxed tone in spring training but also demanded attention to detail, especially when it came to fundamentals. He famously called out his team after a series of gaffes in the spring. Days later, the Cubs were playing better baseball, which carried over to the regular season.

The Cubs finished April four games over .500 but easily could have been four games under, considering Maddon's unfamiliarity with his bullpen and a lineup that didn't feature any stud rookies to open the season. That first month set the tone for the whole year and set Maddon up to win Manager of the Year in his first season as a Cub.

 

[illmatic34]

Would guys rather sign David Price or Jason Heyward (and trade some prospects for someone like Jose Quintana)?

 

[CP1708]

Sign Price
And flip Baez or Soler + 2 prospects for another cost controlled arm like Ross, Sonny, Carasco etc.
Sign Span as a temp fill in at CF.
Fill in rest with youth like Almora, Pierce Johnson, Contreras, CJ Edwards.

Then at trade deadline, use farm to add any final pieces that may arise.

Gives us 3 Aces Jake/Price/Lester + young stud + #5
Rondon/Strop/Grimm/Ramirez/Wood/Pierce/CJ
Bryant/Rizzo/Schwarber/Russell/Castro still as core + leftover either Baez or Soler.
Span/Montero/Coghlan as vet fill ins.
Contreras/Almora as rookie fill ins.
La Stella or Denorfia as utility backup
Ross

Somethin like that.

 

[CP1708]

An estimated 100 players have left Cuba in search of a Major League contract in the past 12 months.

How many of those players will sign with a big league club is up for debate. What's certain is that the once powerful Serie Nacional, the island's top league, has been depleted by the defections from its top players over the past few years. Not surprisingly, many of the recent players to leave Cuba are much younger than their predecessors, so they are subject to international signing guidelines because of their age and experience.

Yaisel Sierra, 24, is the exception. The right-handed pitcher is considered the top unrestricted free agent from Cuba available this offseason, and he could sign once he is declared a free agent.
Some scouts think Sierra can be a top-of-the-rotation pitcher. Others think he might be best suited for the middle of the rotation and that he needs to work on his command. Sierra's fastball was in the 94-97-mph range consistently, and he hit 98 mph in a showcase in front of 100 scouts in August in the Dominican Republic.

Sierra also shined in three innings during a showcase at Roger Dean Stadium in Jupiter, Fla., in front of an estimated 350 scouts on Oct. 23. He has also been throwing for teams each week for the past two months in the Dominican Republic. Because of Sierra's age and experience, he will not be subject to the international signing guidelines.

There's a belief that Sierra can help a Major League team next season. He could also command a contract comparable to the seven-year, $27 million deal the Reds gave to Cuban starting pitcher Raisel Iglesias last summer and the four-year, $32 million deal starter Jose Contreras signed with the Yankees in 2002.

Joining Sierra on the list of top unrestricted free agents from Cuba available are outfielder Guillermo Heredia, infielders Luis Yander La O Camacho and Pavel Quesada. Pitcher Vladimir Gutierrez, outfielder Yusniel Diaz along with pitcher Norge Ruiz, Cionel Perez and Adrian Morejon headline a long list of young prospects from Cuba subject to the international signing guidelines. Most of these players are in various stages of their paperwork to become eligible to sign.

Top 30 International Prospects list

The Cubs, Dodgers, Giants and Royals -- who will not be able to sign any pool-eligible prospects for more than $300,000 for the next two international signing periods after exceeding their bonus pools this year -- are still in play for players eligible to sign under the international guidelines. The Angels, D-backs, Rays, Red Sox and Yankees are already in the maximum penalty after blowing past their bonus pools last year.


Other unrestricted free agents from Cuba to watch
Guillermo Heredia, 24, OF
The starting center fielder for Cuba during the 2013 World Baseball Classic, trained with pitcher Vladimir Gutierrez in Mexico and joined him at a showcase in Delray Beach, Fla., last month. The 5-foot-11, 180-pound Heredia ran a 6.4-second 60-yard dash during the showcase and showed line-drive power during batting practice. He displayed an average arm and hit from both sides of the plate. He is best known for his speed and defensive skills.
Heredia is free to sign.

Luis Yander La O Camacho, 23, INF
Camacho, who played six seasons for Santiago de Cuba in Serie Nacional, will not be subject to the international signing guidelines because of his age and experience when he is declared a free agent.
An established hitter, Camacho posted a .312 batting average with eight home runs and 113 RBIs in his career in Cuba. He hit .325 with two home runs and 39 RBIs in 76 games for Santiago and Matanzas during the 2014-15 season.
The infielder was a key player for Cuba's 2015 Caribbean Series championship team in Puerto Rico, picking up seven hits in 16 at-bats with two runs and one RBI in four games.

Pavel Quesada, 27, 2B/3B
Known as a plus-hitter, Quesada once starred in the same Cienfuegos infield as Erisbel Arruebarrena, Yoan Moncada and Jose Abreu in Cuba, but he has obviously not reached their level of success. The long layoff -- he resigned from his Cuban team and did not play for six months -- left Quesada out of shape and in poor condition for showcases when he arrived late in the summer of 2014. Scouts were not impressed with the plump Quesada.
Quesada now works out twice each day and has lost 30 pounds in the past five months. He's once again become an intriguing option for curious scouts. Quesada is free to sign.

More unrestricted free agents from Cuba to watch: Utility player Maikel Caseres Dorsine; outfielders Yadiel Hernandez, Yanio Luis Perez, Yusnier Aguilar, Ramon Lunar and Joaquin Carbonell; left-handed pitcher Pedro Duran; right-handed pitchers Jorge Despaigne and Jorge Luis Bravo Ramirez; and catcher Lorenzo Quintana.
Because these players are not at least 23 years old with at least five years of experience in Cuba's Serie Nacional, they will be subject to the international signing guidelines, usually referred to as the July 2 signing period rules.

Vladimir Gutierrez, 19, RHP
Gutierrez is free to sign, but continues to work out for teams and might not sign until after the Winter Meetings in Nashville, Tenn., next month.
Gutierrez threw two innings in front of 120 scouts at a showcase with outfielder Guillermo Heredia on Oct. 24 at the Elev8 Baseball Academy in Delray Beach, Fla. His fastball was clocked in the 89-92-mph range and he topped out at 94 mph at the showcase. Gutierrez showed a decent curveball and changeup, but he didn't display his best command.
The 6-foot-3, 172-pound Gutierrez was the Serie Nacional Rookie of the Year during the 2013-14 season. He went 5-5 with a 3.90 ERA during his rookie season, primarily pitching out of the bullpen. Gutierrez also sported a 2.45 ERA as a reliever during the 2014-15 season. The pitcher left his Pinar del Rio team during the Caribbean Series in February in San Juan, Puerto Rico, and made his way to Mexico, where he eventually established residency in May.

Yusniel Diaz, 19, OF
The 6-foot-1, 185-pound Diaz is free to sign and has been a main attraction at private workouts and showcases in the Dominican Republic since early August.
Diaz continues to show athleticism along with some hitting and power potential in the showcases. He has clocked sub-6.5-second 60-yard dashes and also impressed scouts with his body projection. Evaluators also liked Diaz's bat speed and believe he can play center field.

Norge Ruiz, 21, RHP
Ruiz has been described as a bulldog that lives in the strike zone. He has three quality pitches: fastball, changeup and curveball. Ruiz is more of finesse pitcher with a fastball that hovers in the 89-93-mph range. He has not been declared a free agent.

Cionel Perez, 19, LHP
The 5-foot-10, 150-pounder has a fastball that hovers in the 89-93-mph range. Perez tops out around 95 mph and has touched 96 mph. He is learning "a feel" for his changeup and slider. Perez is an intriguing option because of his tools and ability, although it's unclear if he will be a starter or a reliever. He has not been declared a free agent.

Adrian Morejon, 16, LHP
Morejon is the real deal. The left-handed teenager has shined in international competitions, and his fastball hovers in the 91-93 mph range. Morejon has four pitches, plus command and plus makeup. He's an international star and one scout said he might be the best young arm overall in 2016, and that includes the international market and the 2016 Draft. Morejon is working on his documents and has not been declared a free agent.

Jorge Oña, 19, OF
The 6-foot-1, 215-pound teenager has a good approach at the plate for a player his age and has been clocked at 6.85 in the 60-yard dash. Oña is big and solid, with a nice simple swing and raw power. He has not been declared a free agent.

Lazarito Armenteros, 16, OF
The 6-foot-2, 205-pound Armenteros was named to the all-tournament team after hitting .462 with nine runs, three doubles, five triples and eight RBIs in nine games during Cuba's championship run at the U15 Baseball World Cup in Mexico last year.
Armenteros also had 42 hits in 38 games, with eight doubles, three triples, six home runs and 12 stolen bases for Havana's under-15 team in 2014. He recorded five hits, including two triples, in four games for Havana as a 13-year-old. Armenteros has not been declared a free agent.

Alfredo Rodriguez, 21, INF
The 2014-15 Serie Nacional Rookie of the Year, Rodriguez is a glove-first player with good speed (6.6 seconds in the 60-yard dash). He's a high-energy player who is making progress at the plate. Rodriguez has not been declared a free agent.

Julio Alfredo Martinez Wong, 24, LHP
Wong is a polished strike-thrower with a fastball that ranges from 87-90 mph. He might not be the most electric pitcher on the market, but he knows what he's doing on the mound and has an assortment of pitches, including an advanced curveball. Wong has not been declared a free agent.

Jonatan Machado, 16, INF/OF
The speedy Machado has added mass to his 5-foot-10, 155-pound frame during the past few months. He profiles as a leadoff hitter and has been clocked at 6.5 seconds in the 60-yard dash. He can play shortstop and center field. Nicknamed "Ichiro," Machado is free to sign.

Carlos Sierra, 21, RHP
Sierra does not light up a radar gun, but he has emerged as an interesting option for teams looking for help at the back end of the rotation or in the bullpen. Sierra's fastball hovers between 89-90 mph, which is quite an improvement over the 86-89-mph range he threw in a showcase on Oct. 13 in front of 25 scouts. He throws a slider, a changeup and a curveball. The 6-foot-3, 200-pound Sierra played three seasons for Sancti Spíritus in Cuba's Serie Nacional and for the island's 16-and-under and 18-and-under national teams. He later pitched in the Canary Islands for the Tenerife Marlins in the Division de Honor de Beisbol, the top baseball league in Spain.
Sierra is free to sign.

More Cuban players subject to the international signing guidelines to watch: Infielders Randy Arozarena, Omar Estevez, Adriel Labrada, Lasaro Alonso, Alejandro Ortiz, Edwin Vassel, Yorkist Luis Rodriguez, Mario Miranda and Damian Leyba; outfielders Yordan Alvarez, Yordanis Linares, Henry Quintero, Anibal Sierra and Numberto Castellano; right-handed pitchers Juan Oviedo, Ronald Bolanos, Ramon Ernesto Perez, Yunieki Garcia, Julio Montesino and Rodry Castello; catcher Alberto Diaz Martinez; outfielder Osmer Aguila; right-handed pitched Victor Baro; left-handed pitcher Noel Ortiz; shortstop Luis Periche; catcher Freddy Portilla; right-handed pitcher Carlos Gonzalez.

 

[illmatic34]

Sign Price
And flip Baez or Soler + 2 prospects for another cost controlled arm like Ross, Sonny, Carasco etc.
Sign Span as a temp fill in at CF.
Fill in rest with youth like Almora, Pierce Johnson, Contreras, CJ Edwards.

Then at trade deadline, use farm to add any final pieces that may arise.

Gives us 3 Aces Jake/Price/Lester + young stud + #5
Rondon/Strop/Grimm/Ramirez/Wood/Pierce/CJ
Bryant/Rizzo/Schwarber/Russell/Castro still as core + leftover either Baez or Soler.
Span/Montero/Coghlan as vet fill ins.
Contreras/Almora as rookie fill ins.
La Stella or Denorfia as utility backup
Ross

Somethin like that.

Getting crafty with the trades, but I'm down with that. I don't think Oakland is gonna move Sonny though.

 

[CP1708]

Jake Arrieta

Led the league in: Wins (22), home run stinginess (just 0.39 per nine innings), opponent batting average (.184), opponent slugging (.271), shutouts (tied, with three).

His place in history: OK, here we go. Arrieta's 0.75 ERA after the All-Star break was the lowest since the invention of All-Star breaks, which began in 1933. ... His 0.27 ERA and .132 opponent batting average over his final nine starts are unmatched by any pitcher in modern history over any span of nine starts, according to Elias Sports Bureau research. ... His 0.41 ERA from Aug. 1 on is also unmatched in modern history. ... His 0.86 ERA over his final 20 starts was the best by anyone since earned runs became an official stat more than a century ago. ... And, aw, you get the idea. This guy had, basically, the most dominating finish ever.

Why he'll win: Voters often vote according to what they saw last, as opposed to what they saw over six long months. Arrieta ought to sweep the voting among that crowd. Heck, over his final 17 starts, the Cubs went 16-1 and he hit as many home runs as he allowed (two). But even the big-picture voters should know this: Arrieta had a 1.77 ERA and 0.87 WHIP, allowed only 5.9 hits per nine innings and averaged more than a strikeout an inning. In the Cy Young era, just two other pitchers ever matched or beat those numbers in the same season: Sandy Koufax in 1965 and Pedro Martinez in 2000. They both won Cy Youngs. Yep, also unanimously.

Why he won't win: All right, let's just say it: The season started in April. It didn't start in mid-June. Or at the All-Star break. Or Aug. 1. And over the full season, Arrieta's ERA and WHIP still sat behind Greinke (barely), even though they're up there with the 10 best campaigns by anyone since the mound was lowered in 1969. Even the sabermetric leader board actually helps Kershaw more than it helps Arrieta, with just a couple of exceptions. So is it possible that Jake Arrieta just had the greatest season of any pitcher who didn't win a Cy Young award? It totally is.

CY Young should be announced shortly......

 

[arstyle27]

The Cubs have 93 wins....93. Arrieta is your 2015 Cy Young winner. I guarantee it.

Yup

 

[CP1708]

You could call this the Chicago Cubs' final come-from-behind victory of 2015. Halfway through the year, Cubs pitcher Jake Arrieta was presumably a distant second or even third behind Los Angeles Dodgers star Zack Greinke as the best pitcher this season in the National League, but Arrieta went on a second-half tear few have seen before overtaking Greinke to win his first Cy Young Award, which was announced Wednesday evening. Like a horse gaining ground with every stride, Arrieta did the same through every start.

It began a few outings before his no-hitter, in late August, but that performance -- on the national stage on Sunday Night Baseball and in front of Greinke and Clayton Kershaw -- vaulted him into the running for the Cy Young. What was once Greinke’s to win became a two-horse race. The no-hitter was just the beginning of a torrid run that included four more shutout performances in his final six starts. He went from an also-ran to the winner.

“He’s become an elite pitcher,” San Francisco Giants catcher Buster Posey said after facing him this year. “He can work both sides of the plate, up and down.”

His catcher, Miguel Montero, simply stated: “He’s one of the best I’ve caught.”

Cy Young voters -- such as myself -- saw a pitcher who got stronger when most get weaker. If anyone can draw a direct line from his workout and diet to a historic end to a season, it’s Arrieta. He prepared his body, mind and right arm for what was to come late in the season and he carried the Cubs to the finish. A post-All-Star break ERA of 0.75 looks like a misprint, but it’s not. His final three starts sealed the deal: 22 innings pitched, 0 runs. Fatigue wasn’t in Arrieta’s vocabulary.

His only loss in the second half came when the Cubs were no-hit. But just like the Cubs since that day in late July when Cole Hamels shut them down, Arrieta went to work helping his team to the postseason. His performance in the wild-card victory over the Pittsburgh Pirates was the frosting on the cake, cementing him as one of the best in the game. Only when reaching 70 more innings than he had ever thrown in a season did he begin to tire, but the Cubs had accomplished more than anyone would have reasonably thought possible. So had Arrieta.

The baseball world knew Arrieta had some of the best stuff in the game, but when the Cubs acquired him in 2013, he wasn’t exactly reaching his potential. The proverbial change of scenery did the trick, and now the team known for trading Lou Brock for Ernie Broglio can claim a lopsided deal of its own as Scott Feldman and Steve Clevenger don’t seem destined to win any major awards.

Watching Arrieta from start to start was like watching an artist at work. On a given night it was right-handed hitters being fooled by his slider/cutter dipping away from them, making it an impossible pitch to hit. On another night it might be lefties who were jammed once too often, rolling over ground balls to Anthony Rizzo at first base or simply swinging through them. Then there were the many nights when nobody from either side touched him, paralyzed by his 95 mph fastball or a sweeping curve that started near the batter’s eyes but fell nicely into the lower part of the strike zone. This is why a no-hitter from him seemed inevitable and why another one is likely.

Arrieta’s Cy Young victory capped a busy week for the Cubs as he became the third major award winner for them, with the National League MVP winner to be announced on Thursday. A Cub won’t take that one home, but Rizzo, Kris Bryant and Arrieta are bound to get some votes. Of all the performances from their playoff team -- award winners or not -- Arrieta’s was simply the best. Pitchers just don’t do what he did over that period of time in the second half. Or at least not many do. In order to beat Greinke and Kershaw, he needed a performance for the ages. He delivered one.

 

[CP1708]

The Chicago Cubs have signed a pitcher to a Major League deal, but I guarantee it wasn’t already on your radar.

The pitcher, Andury Acevedo, is a 25-year-old righty who was a free agent by virtue of his service time in the minor leagues. That is to say, he was a minor league free agent – and the Cubs signed him to a big league deal and put him on the 40-man roster, per the team’s transactions and 40-man roster pages. It’s not common to see a minor leaguer with no big league experience signed to a big league deal like this in free agency, but it demonstrates how much the Cubs must like Acevedo and how much competition there figured to be for his services. Also, because of his service time, had he signed a minor league contract, Acevedo would have been eligible for the Rule 5 Draft if he were not on a 40-man roster.

Acevedo was a position player in the Pirates’ organization until 2012, when the Yankees opted to convert him to the mound, given his plus-plus velocity. He pitched at three levels in 2015 – High-A, AA, and AA – showing an incredible ability to strike batters out, but an inability to stay consistently within the zone. As this scouting report at BP indicates, Acevedo has huge upside as an elite fastball/slider reliever, but he’s got to harness the command first.

The 6’4″ righty has been on a roster in the Dominican Winter League since mid-October – where the Cubs had undoubtedly been scouting him heavily – but he’s appeared in just three games, logging 2.2 innings, allowing one earned run on four hits, no walks, and no strikeouts.

Acevedo became a free agent by virtue of his minor league service time, and the Yankees’ decision to decline to put him on the 40-man roster. In that way, this isn’t like a player who was waived and then passed on by dozens of teams before the Cubs claimed him. Instead, one team passed on him, and the Cubs deemed him interesting enough to entice with a 40-man roster spot and a big league contract.

The move, for example, stands in contrast to the Cubs’ recent waiver claim of reliever Ryan Cook, who has had a great deal of Major League experience.

From the Cubs’ perspective, the move is still relatively low risk since (1) they have plenty of space on the 40-man roster, and (2) minor league free agents are increasingly being paid better salaries if there is competition for their services (i.e. the difference between a minor league deal and a Major League deal in this particular situation, financially-speaking, was probably not significant). Because Acevedo is on the 40-man roster for the first time, the Cubs will have three minor league options on him, which further reduces any risk here. The team can stash him at AAA Iowa – or even AA Tennessee – and continue working with him on his mechanics as he gets more experience on the mound. The signing is all about projection, upside, and scouting. And, since there’s little risk, I like it. Maybe the Cubs hit a home run and get a late-inning reliever in a couple years. Or maybe they decide it’s not working and cut bait mid-season in 2016.

With Acevedo’s addition, the Cubs’ 40-man roster stands at 31

 

[CP1708]

Sign Price
And flip Baez or Soler + 2 prospects for another cost controlled arm like Ross, Sonny, Carasco etc.
Sign Span as a temp fill in at CF.
Fill in rest with youth like Almora, Pierce Johnson, Contreras, CJ Edwards.

Then at trade deadline, use farm to add any final pieces that may arise.

Gives us 3 Aces Jake/Price/Lester + young stud + #5
Rondon/Strop/Grimm/Ramirez/Wood/Pierce/CJ
Bryant/Rizzo/Schwarber/Russell/Castro still as core + leftover either Baez or Soler.
Span/Montero/Coghlan as vet fill ins.
Contreras/Almora as rookie fill ins.
La Stella or Denorfia as utility backup
Ross

Somethin like that.

Getting crafty with the trades, but I'm down with that. I don't think Oakland is gonna move Sonny though.

The other side to that, could be if they decide Price wants too much, they could go after Zimmerman on a much lesser deal, and use the extra money to bring back a guy like Shark. Again, 4 pretty solid starting pitchers, tho maybe not the "3 Aces" level we were hoping for.

Doing that however, keeps both Baez and Soler around, making the overall lineup stronger, and then you can continue to focus in on the bull pen, and still add a Span (or Alex Gordon ) to the outfield.

 

[CP1708]

As expected – and as deserved – Bryce Harper won the BBWAA’s NL MVP award tonight, and he did so in unanimous fashion. The guy hit .330/.460/.649 and posted a 9.5 WAR. Dude was a freak. And he just turned 23.

Of note to Cubs fans, Anthony Rizzo was just outside the group of finalists, it turns out, finishing 4th behind Harper, Paul Goldschmidt, and Joey Votto. Indeed, Rizzo’s 162 points were actually just barely behind Joey Votto’s 175. Rizzo finished the season with a .278/.387/.512, having hit 31 homers, 38 doubles, 3 triples, and driving in 101 runs. He also stole 17 bases – remember when he was doing that?

Jake Arrieta, who won the Cy Young, was the top-finishing pitcher, netting 134 points and finishing fifth behind the above four and Andrew McCutchen.

As expected and also deserved, Rookie of the Year Kris Bryant received some down-the-ballot votes, finishing 11th.

4th
6th
11th

 

[CP1708]

Phil Rogers [emoji]10004[/emoji] @philgrogers
Theo Epstein and Jeff Samardzija hanging together tonight in Chicago. Cubs have an interest in him. #HotStove #Cubs

 

[CP1708]

CHICAGO (CBS) — After a dinner meeting with Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein on Wednesday evening, free agent right-hander Jeff Samardzija’s return to the North Side of Chicago seems more probable than not.

Samardzija wanted to sit down with Epstein to talk about the future, with the hope on both sides that the meeting could help grease the skids for Samardzija’s possible return to his original team on a mid-to-long-term contract, according to industry sources. The market for the 30-year-old Samardzija, a northwest Indiana native, will be surprisingly robust despite a down 2015 season with the White Sox.

Samardzija made $9.75 million in 2015. After being dealt from the Athletics to the White Sox in December 2014, something wasn’t right from the beginning with Samardzija and his new club. He struggled with his fastball command and got hit early and often in many of his 32 starts. Samardzija was 11-13 with a 4.96 ERA and 1.29 WHIP last season, when he allowed the most hits and earned runs in baseball.

The good news for the Cubs and other teams looking to add a solid rotation starter is that Samardzija is healthy. His fastball still averaged around 94 mph last year despite his bad stat line, and Samardzija topped 213 innings for the third straight season. (It would have been four straight if the Cubs hadn’t shut him down early in 2012.) A former Notre Dame football player, Samardzija started his MLB career as a reliever and doesn’t have as many innings piled up as most his age. Questions about durability and arm health aren’t an issue.

What those in Epstein’s position must decide is the risk factor in giving a three- or four-year contract to Samardzija after he struggled in 2015. Regarding the Cubs, Samardzija’s ace in the hole is his relationship with pitching coach Chris Bosio. The two had a close friendship and great working chemistry in Samardzija’s initial stint with the Cubs.

Samardzija’s improvement under Bosio from 2012 until he was traded in July 2014 to the Athletics was significant, and Bosio signed an extension recently to return for his season with the Cubs.

Other teams that have a deep interest in Samardzija are known to be the Yankees, Giants and Diamondbacks. Samardzija’s representation is from the Wasserman Media Group.

The contract talks will likely center around a three- to four-year dealwith $15 million to $16 million annually in base pay, plus a chance to make more money through incentive clauses. In June 2014, the Cubs originally offered Samardzija a five-year deal potentially worth up to $85 million. It included option years and incentive-based pay.

Samradzija and his agents turned that deal down. He was then traded to Oakland on July 4, 2014, along with right-hander Jason Hammel for shortstop Addison Russell, outfielder Billy McKinney and right-hander Dan Straily.

Samardzija turned down a qualifying offer from the White Sox last week that would have given him $15.8 million for one year. The Cubs or any team that finished in the top 20 of the MLB standings last year will lose a pick in the June 2016 draft if they sign a free agent who turned down a qualifying offer like Samardzija did. That compensation goes to the prior club as a sandwich pick.

After a 97-win regular season, the Cubs pick 28th in the 2016 draft, so the price of giving up a pick isn’t as high as it has been in years past.

The Cubs are looking to add two starting pitchers and a center fielder through either free agency or the trade route this offseason. The team should have around $20 million to $30 million in added payroll money accessible to the baseball department this winter.

I hate the idea of losing the 28th pick in the Draft, but if we traded Shark and Hammel for Addison Russell, and then end up with all 3 of them a year later + Billy McKinney,

Billy Beane gonna get murdered in Oakland.


Man, 4/60 for Shark would mean we could still pursue a Price or Cueto or Zimmerman, and not have to trade Soler or Baez.

 

[CP1708]

ESPN 1000’s Dave Kaplan was just on the radio sharing a number of significant Cubs rumors that will take a little time to digest.

Among the things Kaplan is hearing, together with some of my initial thoughts:

Despite earlier reports to the contrary, Kaplan hears that David Price’s first choice is not Cubs – it’s to stay with Blue Jays, and the Blue Jays might be willing to pony up the cash to do it. From my perspective, the Jays have been able to retain/add pitching in a cost-effective way (Marco Estrada, Jesse Chavez), and it’s not inconceivable that they could have the firepower left to bring back Price. Indeed, that seems like a pretty good idea given the age of their core – they could have a few more serious cracks at this thing before they could see declines/departures. From the Cubs’ perspective, I have always questioned whether they would have the ability and desire to put $200 million into another post-30 arm at this time, when resources are still relatively limited. That $200 million could conceivable go to fill multiple holes, and spreading out the risk. There might not be as much upside in getting guys like Jeff Samardzija and John Lackey, but they would cost much less (combined), and at least then it’s not all riding on one precious, destructible arm.
Speaking of Samardzija and Lackey, Kaplan says those rumors are legit, and the Cubs are in on them. The rub, of course, with Lackey is that the preference might be for a two-year deal, when he’s presumably going to seek at least three years. The rub with Samardzija is that there’s a ton of interest out there, even if he’s interested in coming back to the Cubs. The money would still have to make sense for him.


Still on the pitching side, the Cubs are looking to try and land a guy like Carlos Carrasco or Shelby Miller or Julio Teheran, according to Kaplan, which is not a surprise. We’ve heard those rumors for a while, and the front office has been pretty transparent about the possibility that they may have to move some of their positional talent to add a cost-controlled, impact starter. And, as awesome as I think David Price is, if you’re asking me whether I’d rather see the Cubs go his route, or go with a Samardzija/Lackey type, make a trade for another guy, and then use the remaining dollars for a positional player … I lean that way.

Speaking of which, perhaps the most notable thing Kaplan said is that, yes, the Cubs are talking to Jason Heyward. The big caveat, though, is that, from what Kaplan is hearing, the team won’t be going up into the $170-$180 million range where many think the bidding could go. Instead, if the Cubs could get Heyward on a shorter deal – say, five years and $100 million – then they could consider using him in center field. I am very much in on the Cubs pursuing Heyward *IF* they believe he can play an effective – above average, even – center field in 2016 and 2017. If Kaplan’s sources are correct, though, I have a hard time seeing the Cubs actually landing Heyward, because, even if he wanted a shorter deal, he’s likely to be able to get a six, seven, eight year deal with an opt-out built in after four years – then he gets to have his cake and eat it, too.

Kaplan also said that the Cubs have talked to teams to see if they could move Miguel Montero. I was pretty surprised to hear that, and it’s something that Theo Epstein essentially denied in his season-ending press conference. While I could understand moving Montero from a financial perspective, he was a brilliant catcher last year, was decent at the plate, and is the only thing standing between the Cubs and having to start Kyle Schwarber behind the plate three or four out of every five games. It’s possible he could get there eventually, but I just don’t think he’s there. For me, I want Montero to be the Cubs’ primary catcher again in 2016. I fear the impact on the pitching staff if he’s not. I suppose it’s possible that the Cubs could move Montero and still bring in another catcher, but that’s so many moving pieces. And, well, I just really like the job Montero did.

Trade Montero???? Wow, I don't see that at all, unless they REALLY love Contreras. But man, that's a year early, unless they tryin to max out value for Montero.

 

[CP1708]

I’d say for most hardcore Cubs fans, Chicago Cubs prospect Jeimer Candelario broke out when he reached AA this past summer. There, he hit .291/.379/.462 (140 wRC+), while posting an incredible 12.1% BB rate and 11.5% K rate.

For much of the baseball world, however, it wasn’t until Candelario slapped around the pitching in the Arizona Fall League that he landed squarely on the radar. There, he hit .329/.371/.610, and posted the fifth best OPS in the prospect-laden league. And his stint ended – well, chronologically, if not actually – in a freshly-minted spot on the Cubs’ 40-man roster.

The stint also earned him all kinds of post-AFL attention and honors:

MLB Pipeline named him the third baseman on the All-AFL team, and said that he “arguably was the top breakout prospect in this year’s Fall League.”

Similarly, Jonathan Mayo put Candelario on his list of 10 breakout AFL prospects.

ESPN’s Eric Longenhagen questioned the glove, but noted that Candelario “can really hit,” and comes with a future 60 hit tool (that’s very, very good).

Candelario figures to keep working at third base in the near-term, which raises questions about where he’ll open the season. At AA Tennessee, there’s a clear spot for him, but he had so much success there offensively in a half-season, and is now on the 40-man roster, that you might like to see him taking on the next challenge at AAA. There at Iowa, Christian Villanueva – still a legit guy! – would theoretically be drawing most of the starts, but the Cubs might not want to hold back the higher-upside prospect in Candelario if they feel he can become passable at third base. Then again, even if Candelario does become a passable MLB-caliber third baseman … where would he actually play in the big leagues? Probably not third base, at least not with the Cubs, right?

That is all to say, it’ll be interesting to see what level at which Candelario opens the 2016 (probably AAA), and at what position (probably third base). That assumes, of course, that he isn’t included in a deal before then (which also goes for Villanueva).

I gotta believe one (or both) of these guys are good candidates to get dealt at some point this winter.

 

[sportsjunkie]

I hate the idea of losing the 28th pick in the Draft, but if we traded Shark and Hammel for Addison Russell, and then end up with all 3 of them a year later + Billy McKinney,

Billy Beane gonna get murdered in Oakland.


Man, 4/60 for Shark would mean we could still pursue a Price or Cueto or Zimmerman, and not have to trade Soler or Baez.

I think Oakland gave Billy Beanie an extension or made him President of Baseball Operations in Oakland. Correct me if I am wrong.

 

[CP1708]

I hate the idea of losing the 28th pick in the Draft, but if we traded Shark and Hammel for Addison Russell, and then end up with all 3 of them a year later + Billy McKinney,

Billy Beane gonna get murdered in Oakland.


Man, 4/60 for Shark would mean we could still pursue a Price or Cueto or Zimmerman, and not have to trade Soler or Baez.

I think Oakland gave Billy Beanie an extension or made him President of Baseball Operations in Oakland. Correct me if I am wrong.

He's extended thru 2019, and I think he has a small part in ownership of the team.


If we end up with Addison, Shark, Hammel, and McKinney tho, he needs to fire himself.