Official 2023 Chicago Cubs Season Thread Vol: (17-17)

Bad news today, as Chicago Cubs shortstop Addison Russell will not be available for the NLCS, according to manager Joe Maddon (Bruce Miles, Tony Andracki, Sahadev Sharma). The 21-year-old felt tightness in his left hamstring running the bases in Game Four of the NLDS, and that is now being described as a “moderate hamstring strain.”

We’ve discussed hamstrings before, and, while recovery times do vary, it seems like very few players come back sooner than a month from even mild strains these days. If that proves to be the timeline for Russell, the Cubs may be without their starting shortstop for the duration of the playoffs. Hopefully, if the Cubs make it to the World Series, he can be back.

In the interim, the Cubs will presumably go with Javier Baez as the new starting shortstop, and, as he showed in Game Five of the NLDS, he can fill in admirably. Indeed, the total value drop-off from Russell to Baez may not be all that significant. Russell is sublime defensively, but Baez is pretty darn good, too. The Baez we’ve seen this past month and a half looks to be vastly improved at the plate over last year, and we know how good he can be on the base paths.

The real hit is to the Cubs’ bench, which just lost one of its best players (by way of Baez moving to the starting lineup), and to the ability to use Baez in a more versatile way. With shortstop covered, Baez could be deployed all over, as necessary. That is no longer an option, and the Cubs are suddenly a good player short.

The Cubs could go with another arm on the roster to replace Russell if they choose, or they could add a bench player like Matt Szczur, Jonathan Herrera, Taylor Teagarden or Quintin Berry.
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Chicago Cubs pitching coach Chris Bosio hinted at it on the radio yesterday, and today the team made it official, revealing that lefty Jon Lester will start the opener of the NLCS for the Cubs (Carrie Muskat, Bruce Miles).

The only question, of course, was whether the Cubs would bump Lester back a day and start him on Sunday, keeping Jake Arrieta on normal rest and allowing him to start the first game of the NLCS on Saturday. By going with Lester, then, the Cubs give Arrieta an extra day, and keep the duo in the order they were for the Wild Card Game and NLDS. In theory, Lester would get games one and five, and Arrieta would get games two and six. Other starters and relievers would have to mix and match in the remaining games.

The arguable downsides of the decision are (1) Arrieta would not be able to pitch out of the bullpen in game seven if the series gets that far, and (2) if the Cubs are down in the series, game six is slightly less likely to be played than game five – meaning there’s a chance the Cubs could bow out early while having their top starter make just one appearance.

You could also say that planning on a game seven started by, for example, Kyle Hendricks or Jason Hammel is a risky proposition, but it’s possible the Cubs could have Arrieta start games two and seven. Further, game seven matters only if the Cubs get that far, so let’s worry about the team winning earlier in the series anyway.

Getting Arrieta a little extra rest, and simultaneously not letting Lester sit too many days between starts is all fine by me.

I also don’t get too bothered by this rotation decision because it’s not like Lester isn’t really good, too. Although Arrieta is unquestionably the ace of this team, each of he and Lester were virtually certain to pitch just twice in the NLCS anyway. Flip-flopping them in the rotation doesn’t really help much, then.
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Cuban outfield prospect Eddy Julio Martinez signed with the Chicago Cubs for $3 million, but a previous deal in place with the Giants has complicated the situation, according to industry sources.

Neither team confirmed the deal.
Martinez agreed to terms on a signing bonus worth $2.5 million on Oct. 3 with the Giants and later changed his mind. The deal, which the Giants did not confirm, was pending a physical and based on a series of texts and emails. Sources told MLB.com that Martinez's father was seeking a bonus closer to $3 million.

According to sources, Martinez signed the term sheet for the Cubs on Oct. 8 and filed it for approval by the Commissioner's Office one day later. The Giants submitted paperwork claiming a deal with Martinez the day after they came to terms. However, representatives for Martinez claim the player did not sign a term sheet for the Giants or the sworn statement that says a Cuban player is in compliance with Section 515.05 of Cuban Assets Control Regulations in order to sign with a Major League team.

Martinez is represented in the Dominican Republic by trainers Aldo Marrero and Amauris Nina. He is represented in the United States by Beverly Hills Sports Council. It was Marrero and Nina who made the deal with the Cubs. It was BHSC that made the deal with the Giants.

The 6-foot-2, 195-pound Martinez is ranked No. 4 on MLB.com's Top 30 International Prospect list.

Martinez, 20, was among the first Cuban players eligible to sign during the international signing period. However, he later found himself in a competition for attention with top Cuban prospects like outfielder Yusnier Diaz, 18, and Vladimir Gutierrez, 19, and others who entered the market in search of deals with Major League teams. Martinez left Cuba in November, established residency in Haiti in February and has been training in the Dominican Republic.

The right-handed hitting Martinez has a quick and compact power stroke. He's shown the ability to hit home runs to all fields and work the count. He's speedy out of the box and shows base-stealing potential. He has also shown good instincts on defense and the ability to cover the gaps in the outfield. Those skills combined with a playable and accurate arm could mean Martinez should stay in center field as he develops.

The outfielder played for Cuba's junior national teams in Mexico and Venezuela and spent two seasons with Las Tunas in Cuba's Serie Nacional, the island's top league. Martinez is set to join a class of top international prospects for the Cubs that includes shortstop Yonathan Perlaza, ranked No. 15; outfielder Yonathan Sierra Estiwal, ranked No. 18; shortstop Aramis Ademan, ranked No. 21; and Panamanian catcher Miguel Amaya, ranked No. 26.
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Ray Michael: As a Giants Fan this Eddy Julio Martinez thing is just so strange. What is the latest you are hearing? Who has the edge the Cubs or the Giants?

Klaw: He has an agreement with the Cubs that should be binding, as he didn’t sign the term sheet with the Giants … and I know there’s a disagreement over whether the Giants’ term sheet reflected their initial financial offer to the player.
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Dan: Do the Cubs have another step forward ahead of them? As a Pirates fan I’m afraid they are going to get squeezed between some good (and somewhat lucky) Cards teams and a potential dynasty Cubs.

Klaw: Yes, I think they do. I think they’ll go after a top starting pitcher FA this winter, and there are still a few prospects on the farm who haven’t reached the point where they’re widely known yet.
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#NoPlanTho


Cody: Do you think Javy Baez has raised his stock enough that he can return something interesting this off-season or would the Cubs still be selling low? More likely Baez or Castro is moved or neither?

Klaw: I don’t have a great sense for the market for Castro, but I think I’d rather move him and roll the dice on Baez pulling a Chris Davis. I doubt Castro becomes a star, but he’s very valuable because of his contract. Baez has a higher bust probability but he could become a star much more easily.
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With the Chicago Cubs still playing meaningful baseball – as meaningful as it gets! – this month, we haven’t had an opportunity to dig into looming offseason issues as much as we might have otherwise by now. It’s ok. There’s still time.

But, since we’ve got an off-day to ourselves, I thought it worth noting that MLB has released its qualifying offer figure for this offseason, and it’s $15.8 million. That’s up from $15.3 million last year.

In case you need a refresher: the “qualifying offer” is the offer of a one-year contract for next season at price set by averaging the top 125 salaries in baseball. A team with an outgoing free agent who was on the team for the entire previous season may make a qualifying offer to that player for the following season. If the player accepts, boom, there’s your new contract.

If the player declines the qualifying offer, his new team will lose a draft pick in the following draft (a first rounder if the team picks outside the top ten; the team’s next pick if they’re within the top ten) when it signs that player. His old team will receive a compensatory draft pick after the first round.

Because teams are generally reluctant to give up draft picks (and the associated bonus pool amount), the qualifying offer sometimes has the effect of depressing a free agent’s market. Still, no player has accepted a qualifying offer since it came into existence a few years ago.

For the Chicago Cubs, the in-house implications here are pretty clear, and they relate to one player: Dexter Fowler.

The 29-year-old center fielder was sufficiently successful in 2015, as well as in the years that preceded it, that he is going to receive a qualifying offer from the Cubs, assuming he’s not extended before that. Because I suspect that the market for Fowler is going to be robust – think four or five-year type deals in the $60 to $80 or possibly even $100 million range – I doubt the Cubs will be able to extend him before he reaches free agency. And, of course, for that same reason, he’ll decline the qualifying offer.*

So, then, if Fowler signs with another team, the Cubs will pick up an extra draft pick soon after their first round pick (currently 28th overall). That could come in handy if the Cubs, themselves, sign a free agent who has received a qualifying offer.

That’s the other obvious set of implications for the Cubs: who else receives a qualifying offer, and will the Cubs pursue any qualified free agents?

Remember, players have to have been with their current team all season to be eligible to receive a qualifying offer, so players traded mid-season are not eligible (David Price, Ben Zobrist, Yoenis Cespedes (I believe he was ineligible anyway by a certain contract clause), Johnny Cueto, and Mike Leake are among those players).

The list of potential qualified free agents is still extensive, though. Some examples: Jason Heyward, Jordan Zimmermann, Justin Upton, Jeff Samardzija, Chris Davis, Alex Gordon, Zack Greinke (if he opts out), Howie Kendrick, Denard Span, Hisashi Iwakuma … I could go on. It’s a ton of guys this year. Mike Axisa at CBS has a nice write up on the crop and how he thinks they’ll land.

Qualifying offers must be made within five days of the end of the World Series. Decisions by the players on the offer must be made within one week thereafter.

It’s fun to look back almost one year to the day when considering these issues, as I suspected even back then that the Cubs might be looking for one-year players like Dexter Fowler so that they could, a year later, make him a qualifying offer. It reminds you how much advance planning has to go into these kinds of decisions, and how they can affect a team far down the road.

*(With respect to Fowler and the Cubs, I’ll soon have much more to say on the merits of extending, or not extending, a guy who is obviously very valuable to the team. I’ve addressed this a bit before, but as you well know, though, it’s not always as simple as, “This guy is good and valuable, so the Cubs should definitely pay him whatever it takes.”)
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As reported by CBS Sports MLB Insider Jon Heyman, the qualifying offer for the 2015-16 offseason has been set at approximately $15.8 million. The exact number down to the penny will be finalized within a week or so. The qualifying offer is set at the average of the top 125 salaries in baseball.

The qualifying offer is a one-year contract worth that $15.8 million. If the team makes a free agent the qualifying offer and he rejects it, then they're entitled to draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere. The system has been in place for several years now and we've yet to see a free agent accept the qualifying offer.

Teams have until five days following the end of the World Series to make the qualifying offer. Players then have seven days to accept or reject it. The qualifying offer must be made to receive draft pick compensation. There are no loopholes.

So, with that in mind, let's try to figure out which notable free agents will and will not receive the qualifying offer. Just to be clear, this is all speculation.

DEFINITELY GETTING QO

Wei-Yin Chen, Orioles
Chris Davis, Orioles
Dexter Fowler, Cubs
Alex Gordon, Royals (assuming he declines $12.5-million player option)
Zack Greinke, Dodgers (assuming he opts out of final three years, $71 million)
Jason Heyward, Cardinals
Hisashi Iwakuma, Mariners
Howie Kendrick, Dodgers
John Lackey, Cardinals
Jeff Samardzija, White Sox
Justin Upton, Padres
Matt Wieters, Orioles
Jordan Zimmermann, Nationals

Most of these players are self-explanatory, right? Davis, Gordon, Greinke, Heyward, Upton and Zimmermann are among the top free agents this winter and all are in line for way more than $15.8 million. Chen and Wieters are Scott Boras clients and Boras clients almost always look for the largest payday. They might not get $15.8 million annually, but their total packages will be worth more than that.

The Cubs acquired Fowler last winter hoping he would play his way into a qualifying offer and he did just that with 17-homer, 2.2-WAR season. Kendrick, Iwakuma and Lackey fall into the "their teams would happily take these veterans back on a one-year, $15.8-million contract if they accept the qualifying offer" category.

I was tempted to put Samardzija in the next group but decided against it even though he was so disappointing this season (79 ERA+). Samardzija is only 30, he's a workhorse (213+ innings three straight years), and it was only a year ago that he put up a 125 ERA+ and 3.7 WAR. I can't imagine the ChiSox would let him go for nothing, especially after not trading him at the deadline.

LIKELY GETTING QO

Brett Anderson, Dodgers
Ian Desmond, Nationals
Yovani Gallardo, Rangers
Ian Kennedy, Padres
Daniel Murphy, Mets
Colby Rasmus, Astros
Denard Span, Nationals

These are the players who I believe are likely to get a qualifying offer, though a shred of doubt exists. The Mets are notoriously tight with payroll, which is why they might not risk Murphy accepting a qualifying offer. I think he gets one though. Rasmus, like Fowler, seemed to play his way into a qualifying offer, especially this postseason.

Anderson will be one of the youngest free agents at 27 and he just threw a career-high 180 1/3 innings after throwing 206 1/3 innings total from 2011-14. I have to think he'll try to turn that into a multi-year contract. This offseason is likely the last best chance for Gallardo, Kennedy and Span to sign a big contract, so they'd decline a qualifying offer rather than accept the one-year deal and try again next winter.

UNLIKELY TO GET QO

Alex Avila, Tigers
Asdrubal Cabrera, Rays
Rajai Davis, Tigers
Marco Estrada, Blue Jays
Doug Fister, Nationals
David Freese, Angels
Chris Iannetta, Angels
Dioner Navarro, Blue Jays
Darren O'Day, Orioles

Good players, all of them, but not good enough for their teams to risk having them accept a one-year contract worth $15.8 million. A few months ago Fister was a lock for a qualifying offer, but injuries, a demotion to the bullpen, a 95 ERA+ and 0.2 WAR took him out of that price range. It's not impossible one or two of these players receive a qualifying offer, but it would surprise me.

NOT GETTING QO

Mark Buehrle, Blue Jays
A.J. Burnett, Pirates
Bartolo Colon, Mets
David DeJesus, Angels (assuming $5-million team option is declined)
Chris Denorfia, Cubs
Stephen Drew, Yankees
Jeremy Guthrie, Royals (assuming team declines $10-million mutual option)
Tim Hudson, Giants
Torii Hunter, Twins
Shawn Kelley, Padres
Cliff Lee, Phillies (assuming $27.5-million team option is declined)
Tim Lincecum, Giants
Justin Morneau, Rockies (assuming $9-million mutual option is declined)
Brandon Morrow, Padres
Joe Nathan, Tigers (assuming $10-million team option is declined)
Steve Pearce, Orioles
Mike Pelfrey, Twins
A.J. Pierzynski, Braves
Mark Reynolds, Cardinals
Alex Rios, Royals
Jimmy Rollins, Dodgers

Buehrle, Burnett and Hudson are expected to retire after the season, and there's no reason to risk making the qualifying offer. Colon and Hunter could retire as well. Besides, their performance isn't worth a qualifying offer. Lee and Nathan are former All-Stars near the end of their careers. Both are coming off major arm injuries too. No qualifying offers for them.

I think Lincecum's days as a well-paid rock star with the Giants are over. I do think he'll wind up back in San Francisco, but on a much smaller contract. He made $18 million in 2015, remember. After hip surgery and four straight years with no better than a 91 ERA+, Lincecum's not qualifying-offer worthy.

NOT ELIGIBLE FOR QO

Marlon Byrd, Giants
Yoenis Cespedes, Mets
Tyler Clippard, Mets
Johnny Cueto, Royals
Austin Jackson, Cubs
Scott Kazmir, Astros
Mike Leake, Giants
Mark Lowe, Blue Jays
Mike Napoli, Rangers
Gerardo Parra, Orioles
David Price, Blue Jays
Joakim Soria, Pirates
Chase Utley, Dodgers
Ben Zobrist, Royals

These players are not eligible for a qualifying offer because they were traded during the season. The rules state a player must spend the entire season with their club to be eligible for a qualifying offer, and these guys didn't do that. Big name free agents like Cespedes, Cueto, Price and Zobrist will not be tied to draft-pick compensation this winter.

It's debatable whether some of the other players listed would even receive a qualifying offer (Byrd, Jackson, Napoli, etc.), but the question has been answered for us. They're ineligible for the offer.

OPTIONS LIKELY TO BE EXERCISED

Nori Aoki, Giants ($5.5-million team option)
Jose Bautista, Blue Jays ($14-million team option)
Joaquin Benoit, Padres ($8-million team option)
Clay Buchholz, Red Sox ($13-million team option)
R.A. Dickey, Blue Jays ($12-million team option)
Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays ($10-million team option)
Jaime Garcia, Cardinals ($11.5-million team option)
Adam Lind, Brewers ($8-million club option)
David Murphy, Angels ($7-million team option)
Alexei Ramirez, White Sox ($10-million team option)
Brendan Ryan, Yankees ($1-million player option)
Brad Ziegler, Diamondbacks ($5.5-million team option)

These are the contract options I expect to be exercised this offseason, meaning these players won't become free agents. Bautista and Encarnacion are no-brainers, and others like Benoit, Buchholz, Dickey, Garcia and Murphy are very safe. Position scarcity leads me to believe Ramirez will have his option exercised despite his poor year. Even if their current teams don't want these players, they have trade value at those salaries. No need to cut them loose for a measly draft pick.
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Just need the best we can get from Lester/Arrieta for 4 starts.

And need the bats from game 3 to show up for one of Hammell or Hendricks starts.

If we get that, we have a chance. Rest is up to Maddon and the bullpen doin their job.

Really gonna miss Addison defensively. :(
 
HUGE chance tonight. If Lester could set the tone and take game 1, with Arrieta on deck tomorrow, could give these young Cubs all the belief they need.
These Met pitchers are better than anyone the Cards threw at us, so grinding out at bats will be crucial.

Make us proud Lester. :hat
 
Fowler
Schwarber
Bryant
Rizzo
Castro
Soler
Baez
Ross
Lester

Really only a 7 man lineup without Montero, so the others need to get some early runs and grind Harvey down.
 
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