Official 2023 Chicago Cubs Season Thread Vol: (17-17)

Heartbreaking way to lose. Lester could have gotten us a sweep, instead he gives up 4 early runs, the pen hangs in there, we get it to 4-3, bases loaded and nobody out in the 8th, but Rizzo gunned down at the plate kills the rally. :(

Ugh. :x
 
Chicago Cubs ‏@Cubs 44m44 minutes ago
Congratulations to C Willson Contreras and RHP Ryan Williams, our Minor League Player and Pitcher of the Year!
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Chicago Cubs ‏@Cubs 43m43 minutes ago
Willson Contreras led the Southern League with a .333 AVG to go along with 71 R, 34 doubles, 4 triples, 8 HR, 75 RBI
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Chicago Cubs ‏@Cubs 44m44 minutes ago
Ryan Williams went 14-3 with a 2.16 ERA, 98 K and just 18 BB, 2 HR allowed in 26 games (24 starts)
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It’s no secret that the Chicago Cubs are a touch more popular this year than last, and neither is it a secret that, perhaps more than any other team, the Cubs’ ability to spend freely in the next decade+ is intimately tied to that popularity. With a trio of TV deals that expire after the 2019 season and a long-term deal looming, showing positive ratings – as the Cubs have done in spades this year – could go a long way to determining just how lucrative that next big deal will be.

But in the even nearer term – like, 2016 – the Cubs will be more reliant on positive gains in a much more flexible revenue stream: attendance.

Thankfully, attendance this year has reflected the Cubs’ popularity, and a race for the playoffs has ensured the butts keep filling the seats long after school went back into session. Through yesterday’s near-sellout, the Cubs have drawn 2,688,859 fans, and they’ve got seven home dates remaining (including a weekend series against the Pirates and an interleague makeup on Monday against the Royals). All of 2014 – a year in which attendance was up for the first time in a long time – the Cubs drew 2,652,113.

That spike in attendance, possibly even above what the Cubs were projecting coming into the season, will generate additional revenues for the organization that, after expenses, will be repurposed right back into baseball operations. (This is setting aside, for now, additional revenue increases the Cubs should see from escalations in their present TV contracts, additional sponsorship revenue, and other ancillary increases in revenue tied to interest in the team.)

Indeed, GM Jed Hoyer recently stated his believe that the increase in attendance will likely translate to more for baseball operations to spend heading into next year (Tribune, CSN). That won’t necessarily mean only big league payroll, mind you – there are also amateur and international spending considerations – but that should be the biggest chunk of baseball ops expenditures next season.

How much will the Cubs have to spend next year?

Well, even if I could tell you exactly how much revenue will ultimately be budgeted for baseball operations, and even if I could tell you how much of that would be spent on non-payroll items, I couldn’t tell you how much the front office will actually spend on payroll in 2016. No one can. Not even they could tell you that right now.

Instead, the best we can do is ballpark the very, very rough range within which the front office should be able to work. And even that’s extremely difficult, because the baseline from which you start – in 2015 – is not easily calculated.

Determining a team’s payroll is actually more complicated than you might think, as it is dramatically by in-season roster moves, incentives, dead money, non-25-man players bouncing back and forth on the 40-man, and the distinction between actual paid-out payroll and payroll for luxury tax cap purposes. As we get into the offseason and start more specifically discussing roster moves, I’ll get into more detail on how the Cubs spent their money in 2015, and how that could rise or fall heading into 2016.

For now, I’ll ballpark it by saying that, in 2015, the Cubs have spent roughly $130 million. With only a handful of contracts coming off the books after the season, and with contract and arbitration escalations on the way, the Cubs will likely have to bump that figure a bit if they want to be aggressive in the upper end of free agency.

If I knew today that the Cubs were going to exceed $140 million in payroll on Opening Day 2016, I would be very surprised. Part of that figure is a matter of being realistic about the revenue growth and attendant spending (and the fact that some of the funds for the 2015 payroll may have been a one-time thing tied to the money saved by not signing Masahiro Tanaka (remember the “rollover” funds?; a quote from early 2014: “That means the front office could roll as much as $20 million over into the 2015 payroll level. That means, it is conceivable that a $130 million payroll in 2015 is realistic (and then probably sustainable and growing thereafter, given certain projected financial improvements).” Boom. Nailed it.)).

Part of that $140 million figure is simply the nature of not increasing spending too dramatically in a single offseason so that large contracts can be staggered over time.

That should leave the Cubs with plenty of flexibility to improve the roster after the season, and I very much look forward to the debates about whether spending huge on David Price makes more or less sense than spreading those dollars across two starters in the next tier down. But that’s a debate for another day.

The lesson today is simply: the Cubs are really popular this year, and that’s probably going to open up some additional payroll flexibility heading into 2016.

Neat.

(And, of course, it’s worth reminding folks that the Cubs’ ability to spend freely on payroll is also limited by the leveraged partnership arrangement at the core of the team’s ownership right now, and likely through 2019. If you don’t want to read 10,000 words, I can give you an easy short-hand there, too: the more the Cubs generate in revenue, the more baseball ops will have to spend.)
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Jorge Soler with a pinch hit 3-run homer, Rizzo and Bryant with 3 hits each, Castro a couple doubles and RBI.

Arrieta goin tomorrow. :hat
 
Jake Arrieta #20 :hat

Complete game, shutout, 3 hits, 1 walk, 11 K's. 1.88 ERA for the season.

Kris Bryant 2-run homer + RBI double.

.278/26/98. #ROY


89-62 :eek
 
Congratulations to Arrieta!!!!
:Nthat :Nthat :Nthat

Been a long time since we had a 20 game winner.
Co-sign on the Bryant for #ROY
 
Jake Arrieta went nine innings last night without allowing a run, walking only one, giving up only three hits, and striking out eleven. Sure, the Brewers’ lineup was weak, but that’s still an overwhelmingly good performance.

Even at this late stage in the year, the start still moved the needle on some of his impressive season numbers:

The shutout dropped Arrieta’s ERA/FIP/xFIP from 1.96/2.50/2.75 to 1.88/2.44/2.69. That’s the second best ERA in baseball (Zack Greinke, 1.65), the second best FIP (Clayton Kershaw, 2.09), and the third best xFIP (Kershaw, 2.17; Chris Sale, 2.58).

Arrieta’s WAR increased to 6.7, behind only Clayton Kershaw (7.8).

Arrieta’s K rate and BB rate improved to 26.6% and 5.8%, respectively.

Arrieta’s innings total is up to 216.0, a near 60-inning jump from last season.

On that last one, and on the decision to allow Arrieta to throw 123 pitches to finish a 4-0 game last night, I don’t have much of a beef with Joe Maddon’s decision. I have, at other times, taking issue with a decision here or there to leave Arrieta in, usually when you see the intersection of three things: (1) an elevated pitch count, (2) stressful innings, particularly late, and (3) a diminishing in the quality of the pitcher’s stuff. Last night, while I don’t love the “123 pitches,” in isolation, that really doesn’t give you a picture of the decision. Arrieta’s night was exceedingly un-stressful, and the stuff looked as good in the 8th inning as it did in the 2nd.

For his part, Maddon admitted it was a very close call after the game, and said that if the Cubs had pushed the lead to 5-0, he would have gone to the bullpen. When you factor the lead, the situation (getting to 20 wins in front of the home crowd in a shutout, which did lead to a very cool on-field celebration), and, presumably, the need to win the game, Maddon decided to let Arrieta finish things out (ESPN).

The start marked Arrieta’s 18th straight quality start.

Historic:

ESPN Stats & Info [emoji]10004[/emoji] @ESPNStatsInfo
Jake Arrieta: 0.86 ERA in 13 starts since the ASB. No pitcher has recorded a sub-1 ERA after ASB with at least 13 starts
(via @eliassports)
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ESPN Stats & Info [emoji]10004[/emoji] @ESPNStatsInfo
Jake Arrieta: 0.48 ERA since August 4th, 4th-best in 10-game stretch since ER became official in both leagues in 1913
(via @eliassports)
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Matt Clapp ‏@TheBlogfines Sep 22
Starlin Castro last 30 days (ranks in MLB with min 80 PA:):

.419 AVG (2nd)
.443 OBP (10th)
.716 SLG (3rd)
.487 wOBA (3rd)
1.5 fWAR (10th)
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Kris Bryant started playing guitar around the time the Cubs made him the No. 2 overall pick in the 2013 draft and immediately turned him into a face of the franchise.

People told Bryant he would need something to help get away from the game. The National League’s Rookie of the Year frontrunner tries to compartmentalize everything, binge-watching episodes of “Friday Night Lights” and “Game of Thrones” on Netflix and HBO to clear his head.

Bryant had shown enough potential as a student at the University of San Diego that he turned down the chance to pursue a Rhodes Scholarship. He also doesn’t take things too seriously, shooting a Red Bull commercial with a goat and going undercover as a Lyft driver in Chicago.

All that helps explain why Bryant has proven he’s even better than the hype, becoming an anchor for a playoff contender that saw its magic number cut to two even with Wednesday night’s 4-1 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers at Wrigley Field.

“The scrutiny that KB was under in spring training was something I’ve never seen,” said catcher David Ross, who’s in his 14th season in the big leagues. “The way he’s handled it — and had a phenomenal year — has been really impressive.”

Bryant blasted his 26th home run on Tuesday night, breaking the franchise’s rookie record held by Hall of Famer Billy Williams. Bryant needs to drive in only two more runs to reach 100, putting the offense on his shoulders at times and helping elevate Anthony Rizzo into an MVP candidate.

Anything less and Bryant would have been considered a big disappointment by the Cubs fans who’ve been burned by overhyped prospects before.

There would have been a major media backlash after super-agent Scott Boras and the Major League Baseball Players Association made service time such a big issue for the game’s No. 1 prospect.

Bryant Day finally came on April 17 against James Shields and the San Diego Padres, delaying his free-agency clock until after the 2021 season and dropping him into the Wrigley Field fishbowl.

“That was absurdly kind of blown up,” Bryant said. “I guess it’s just natural now in baseball with the social media. People were telling me that ‘SportsCenter’ would go to each of my at-bats. That’s just crazy to me.

“I don’t think anybody wanted (that). I definitely didn’t want that.”

Bryant went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts during his big-league debut, waited 21 games before hitting his first home run, batted .168 in July and could finish with close to 200 strikeouts this season.

But Bryant hasn’t wilted or pouted or let it impact his defense at third base. He’s unselfishly moved to the outfield and even made game-changing plays with surprising speed on the bases for a 6-foot-5 slugger.

“He does not wear it,” Boras said. “Bryant has the absolute professional approach where 'I’m going to show up, and I’ve got a routine to deliver. And I’m not going to worry about what happens.'

“He has that belief, that structure, that confidence. And it’s rewarded.”

Bryant also hasn’t relaxed too much or let all the attention go to his head or isolated himself in the clubhouse.

“I don’t think outwardly we’ve seen frustration from him,” said Jason McLeod, the Cubs executive who oversees scouting and player development. “He’s a very professional, even-keeled guy.

“I’m sure when he was going through some of the struggles it was eating at him inside somewhat. But he’s got a process and a mindset of coming in and working every single day. And that helps him, I think, not get too low.

“Or when he’s hitting walk-off home runs, the next morning he’s going to be the same guy. He’s going to come to the park (and) work on his approach. And I think it takes a certain type of makeup to do that.”

Bryant is clutch, beginning the day with a .956 OPS with runners in scoring position. He’s been hitting .368 with two outs and runners in scoring position, getting on base almost 50 percent of the time in those situations. He led all rookies in on-base percentage (.371) and slugging percentage (.505). He had 27 more RBIs than any other rookie in the majors.

“I’ve always been like this,” Bryant said. “I’ve always been a player that would just leave it at the field. I just try not to think about the previous game — or my successes or struggles or any of that off the field — because there’s really no need to.

“I don’t think we’re normal people. We live a crazy life. But I think anybody out there kind of just leaves their work where it needs to be.”

That’s why the Cubs believe Bryant will deliver in the biggest moments in October for years to come.
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Jake Arrieta is on a completely different wavelength right now, locked into a dream season where it feels like there is no end in sight when he pitches like this.

The crowd of 36,270 waited to give Arrieta the standing ovation on Tuesday night at Wrigley Field, watching him put the finishing touches on a 4-0 complete-game victory over the Milwaukee Brewers and notch his 20th win.

And with that, the Cubs sliced their magic number down to three, positioning themselves as a team you do not want to face in the playoffs with Arrieta and Jon Lester at the top of the rotation.

The National League has taken notice, with Arrieta lowering his ERA to 1.88 and putting together 18 straight quality starts, an unbelievable run that included his no-hitter against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

“It just means that I’m putting my team in positions to win ballgames,” said Arrieta, who became the first Cub to reach 20 wins since Jon Lieber in 2001. “At the end of the day, that’s our goal – to try and pile on as many as we can.

“Especially with where we’re at in the season, wins now at this time are more important than ever. Just happy about getting one for the team and keeping the momentum going.”

Arrieta smothered the last-place Brewers, allowing only three hits (two infield singles) and one walk and finishing with 11 strikeouts. His 0.86 ERA in 13 starts since the All-Star break is the lowest mark in major-league history.

“It’s Bob Gibson-esque,” manager Joe Maddon said.

Maddon allowed Arrieta to throw 123 pitches and admitted he would have pulled his ace if the Cubs scored another insurance run.

Arrieta struck out the first two batters he faced in the ninth inning – Logan Schafer and Adam Lind – and hit 94 mph with his second-to-last pitch. Khris Davis grounded out to end a game that only took two hours and 22 minutes, setting off the celebrations in Wrigleyville.

“It’s a really tough decision to make in that moment,” Maddon said. “Honestly, if all this other stuff was not attached to it, I probably would have taken him out. With everything else attached to it, I thought it was appropriate to send him back out.

“You have to be in the dugout to really feel all of that. Believe me, I didn’t do it lightly or easily. I thought about it a lot.” Arrieta has now thrown 216 innings – or almost 60 more than he did last year in the big leagues. The Cubs are counting on him to shut down the Pittsburgh Pirates in the Oct. 7 wild-card game and lead this team on a long postseason run.

“It’s uncharted territory,” Maddon said. “It’s all this stuff that’s very prominent in the news right now regarding pitchers and innings pitched. The thing I’ve talked about with him (is) the fact that he’s not in his early 20s. The fact that he’s been pitching for awhile, I think, separates him.

“Combine that with his workout regimen, what kind of shape he’s in, it was kind of like honestly a non-stressful 120 pitches, if that makes sense. He wasn’t really in a lot of binds during the course of the game.”

The Cubs have won almost 75 percent of the games started by Arrieta this season (23-8). He has been a stabilizing influence on a young team with rookies up and down the lineup and too many question marks in the rotation. That sense of confidence might make him arguably the team’s MVP.

The Cy Young race could come down to Arrieta or Dodgers ace Zack Greinke (18-3, 1.65 ERA), which seemed unthinkable when the Cubs made that Scott Feldman trade with the Baltimore Orioles in the middle of the 2013 season.

Within the American League East, Arrieta had a reputation as someone who would unravel, letting the game get too fast and giving up the big inning.

With a straight face, Arrieta said he didn’t feel all that sharp during his fourth complete game this season, but he’s willed himself into becoming a No. 1 starter.

“I felt off, but you have a handful of starts where it’s a toss-up,” Arrieta said. “You’re not sure which way it’s going to go, but your mindset plays a big deal in what the outcome looks like. So try to be mentally tough and grind it out.”

The Cubs allowed Arrieta to be himself and didn’t try the cookie-cutter approach that didn’t seem to work in Baltimore (20-25, 5.46 ERA). Coaches Chris Bosio, Mike Borzello and Lester Strode didn’t try to completely rewire Arrieta’s mechanics or stop his crossfire motion.

The Cubs also discovered a curious student who would embrace the analytics, apply scouting reports and think on his feet. That immersion into the mental side of the game means Arrieta might only be getting started with 20 wins.

“I know the results have been good, but I don’t dwell on it for too long,” Arrieta said, “because tomorrow I’m getting ready for Pittsburgh. At the end of the day, the body of work has been good. It’s been what my team has needed.

“I’m just fortunate to be in situations where the team’s scoring runs, I’m pitching well and the wins add up. It’s just kind of one of those things that doesn’t happen often. But you try and appreciate it when they do.”
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MLB Communications [emoji]10004[/emoji] @MLB_PR
The 2015 Wild Card Games presented by Budweiser (AL on ESPN on 10/6 and NL on TBS on 10/7) will both begin at 8:08 p.m. (ET).
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Tough loss to the Bucco's today :{
Lester's record is not indicative of the impact he had on this team. He's brought leadership, experience, and that team comraderi that is always needed.

Cole was dealing.
Castro should've made that play for home :{
 
Theme I've hammered all year, Make. Contact.

All Soler needed was contact, tie game. Strikeouts do nothing. :{
 
:smokin

Wild Card the best you can mathematically/realistically accomplish? Division not possible?

Just curious.

Props. :smokin
 
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