Official 2023 Chicago Cubs Season Thread Vol: (17-17)

[dmxfury]

Division getting ridiculous....huge move

 

[sportsjunkie]

Dont be surprise if we get another big bat this offseason.

 

[arstyle27]

Evan Longoria to Chicago? Im hearing rumors.

 

[moneyballer55]

Evan Longoria to Chicago? Im hearing rumors.

With Kris Bryant in the pipeline? unlikely.

 

[arstyle27]

Probably true, plus Longoria would be expensive.

 

[CP1708]

Longoria has been mentioned for a while because of Maddon, and Bryant can be moved to LF. (which has also been discussed)

Theo said if he got Lester, he might also try to add a big bat as well, most assumed it was just talk. We'll see.

 

[CP1708]

SAN DIEGO -- The moment the text message lit up his cell phone late Tuesday night, Joe Maddon knew that everything had changed.

Holy Cubby Bear. Jon Lester was about to become a Cub. He wasn't going to Los Angeles. He wasn't going to San Francisco, home of the World Series champs. He wasn't going back to Boston.

Nope. He had chosen, of his own free will, with the slight enticement of 155 million negotiable Ricketts family dollars, to become a Cub. Wow.

Maddon looked at the text from Theo Epstein and quietly put the phone back in his pocket. He didn't change expressions. He didn't alert the world. But he knew.

Everything about the direction the Chicago Cubs were heading -- next season and beyond -- had just been altered. The Cubs, ladies and gentlemen, were suddenly going for it. The Cubs!

"It's not often," said Maddon, the manager of those Cubs, "that you get to win the lottery."

Yeah, but you know what's right up there with Powerball? Power arms. And now, with Lester on board, the question is whether, with the addition of this particular power arm, the Cubs have suddenly changed the balance of power in the National League Central.
"Well," smiled Maddon, "this definitely propels us into Plan A."

Oh, he didn't exactly lay out the specifics of Plan A. But he didn't have to. Did he?

With one thunderous acquisition, the Cubs were no longer that anonymous last-place team with a roster full of Junior Lakes and Brian Schlitters. They were an official baseball powerhouse, making a statement about who they were and where they were going.

Asked if the addition of Lester was the kind of signing that alters the course of this franchise, Maddon replied: "We'd like to believe that, yeah. I mean, that's why you do things like this."

No doubt. But then again, how would anybody in Chicago possibly know that? The Cubs just don't do "Things Like This." Then again, nobody but the Yankees has ever been known to do "Things Like This."

Before this deal, the only team not located in the Bronx to sign a free-agent pitcher to a contract greater than $126 million was the Dodgers, with their 2012 signing of Zack Greinke, for six years and $147 million.

But this deal was different. Different from all of them. Different because the Cubs didn't have to do this.

They weren't built to win next year. They were being built, carefully and painstakingly, by Epstein and Jed Hoyer, to win in 2016 or 2017 or maybe even 2018, depending on how things came together and the young guys progressed.

So they really should have been chasing Lester with the idea that if they got him, great, and if they didn't, hey, what was the big deal? It wasn't their time. It wasn't their place. And there was a great crop of free-agent arms coming next winter, too.

But that wasn't how this pursuit unfolded at all. From the first day of free agency, they were all-in. With every ounce of energy the front office could muster. And every ivy leaf on the outfield wall. And every dollar in the Ricketts' checkbook.

And why? Because, if they could pull this off, they could alter both their image and their timetable. They could slam that gas pedal to the floor. They would no longer be rebuilding from their messy past. They'd be building toward their beautiful future. They were speeding up their assault on the rest of their division and the rest of their sport.

"I don't know yet how this speeds it up," Maddon said Tuesday night, from the middle of an impromptu media crush in the winter meetings hotel lobby. "But this is very exciting."

Only a few hours earlier, the Cubs had traded for Diamondbacks catcher Miguel Montero, a two-time All-Star. Now they'd topped off an amazing day by reeling in Lester. And when that happens, the manager said, "you can really throw the cards in there a little bit and see where it's going to take you."

A day like this doesn't help Javier Baez make more contact, of course. A day like this doesn't turn Addison Russell or Kris Bryant or Jorge Soler into instant stars. All that was always going to take time. And it still will.

But without a day like this, if Maddon had waltzed into the clubhouse on the first day of spring training and talked about contending, that talk would have sounded like the same old spring-training happy talk every manager spews in the middle of every February.

Instead, with Lester sitting in the clubhouse, it isn't just the usual baloney. Not anymore. Instead, Maddon said, "it definitely makes it more believable to everyone else in the room."

And more important, it ought to make it more believable to everyone else in the sport, too.

The addition of Lester affects the rest of baseball in multiple ways, you know. For one thing, just in the short term, it frees the winter meetings from Lester captivity, kick-starts the Max Scherzer/James Shields free-agent watch, topples the trade dominoes and forces the Red Sox, in particular, to reach into their How Do We Build A Rotation If We Don't Sign Lester file and begin wheeling and dealing.

But in the long term, this sport has to grapple with a much bigger question: What should everybody now make of the Cubs?

From the day Epstein and Hoyer walked in the door in 2011, their plan was not to hope they get lucky and win a World Series some day. Their plan was to build something deep and powerful and lasting, a team with a shot to win in October every year.

They didn't know then that the plan would include signing Lester. But because, three years later, they were able to sell what they had already built, the acquisition of a true ace has given them the type of credibility they didn't have a week ago.

And it allowed them to dangle in front of Lester the thought of what it might feel like to be the guy on the mound the day the Cubs win the World Series -- for the first time in more than 100 years. How 'bout that thought?

"You know," Maddon said, when asked if he thought Lester might have been enticed by that dream, "I wouldn't doubt it. I wouldn't doubt that at all. I mean, he's been there before. He understands what it feels like. And I want to believe that he could foresee the same thing happening here."

Well, apparently he could. And now, thanks to the most stunning addition of the 2014-15 offseason, the other 29 teams in baseball just might have to believe it, too.

 

[CP1708]

Did you hear it? The unmistakable click-clacking of a large group of men in cleats – perhaps a full baseball team in size – just now turning the corner. It’s distant, but I hear it. They’re coming.

In the wee hours of the morning, word broke that the Chicago Cubs would be signing lefty ace Jon Lester. The Cubs had beaten out the Red Sox and their unending supply of cachet. The Cubs had beaten out the Giants and their unending supply of World Series titles. The Cubs had beaten out the Dodgers and their supply of money.

The Cubs targeted an elite free agent, presented a compelling offer and opportunity, and convinced him to come on board for the ride. This, my friends, is a very good day.

To be sure, the deal itself is huge – the largest in franchise history, at six years and $155 million with a vesting option for a seventh year (the precise contract that I said would be the highest about which I could be happy) – and it’s probably an overpay by various valuation metrics. But we all know that in today’s free agency era, “overpaying” is really the only way to get the guy you want. The Cubs wanted Lester, I wanted Lester, and now he’s a Chicago Cub. We can save the contract dissection for another day.

Heck, we can save the performance projecting and analysis for another day, too. Because there are at least two reasons that Cubs fans should be extremely happy about this deal completely irrespective of how they feel about Lester, specifically, or even if they think the Cubs paid too much:

(1) This front office does not sign a guy to a deal that will pay him an AAV over $25 million for the next six years if they believe payroll is going to be stuck at $100 million for the foreseeable future. It would be unconscionably reckless to devote such a large chunk of the team’s payroll to one player, and, indeed, prevailing wisdom holds that having any one player at 20% or more of the payroll is deadly. At 20% of payroll and $25 million per year, the Cubs’ payroll would have to be $125 million – so, going forward, you’re looking for a figure north of that. Perhaps as soon as 2015.

I know that many of you were in the “show me” stage of believing that the money was coming, but this is why I always focused so intently on the business side of the Cubs’ operations. The revenues they are creating and enhancing absolutely will wind up as available dollars to the baseball side. Knowing the responsible and conservative nature of this front office, this contract – this single, gigantic contract – is proof that they believe the big money is coming, and sooner rather than later. I think it’s completely realistic to say that we’ll probably see the Cubs hit a payroll of $120 million in 2015, and only climb from there.

(2) A related, but distinct reason for happiness in the wake of this deal: the Cubs will continue adding for 2015. That’s not the impatience of fandom speaking; it’s just the nature of these kinds of giant contracts, and the reality of aging. When you have the best remaining years of an ace like Jon Lester in the next few, you’re not going to waste one of them sitting idly by and crossing your fingers that all of your young bats break through (and you might not even like having to hope that one of your many fringe-starter arms breaks through to win the 5th starter gig).

With Lester in the fold, and with prospect currency yet to spend, I think you will see the Cubs seriously involved in trade discussions to try and add a significant bat to the team for 2015. Ken Rosenthal has already reported as much, but it’s a concept we’ve touched upon before, and it’s nothing new. The only thing new is that now the Cubs really do have Lester. (You know, in addition to that Maddon guy, that Rizzo guy, that Castro guy, that Arrieta guy, all those awesome youngsters, that new Montero guy, that new(ish) Hammel guy …. )

There’s work yet to come, and even now, I agree with what Theo Epstein has said for some weeks now: this is not the peak. The Cubs can and will compete in 2015, but the best is yet to come.

But, man, it’s coming.

 

[CP1708]

Clubs rebuild. It’s a part of the process. Just look at what’s happening in Oakland right now. Every year, franchises begin rebuilds, continue rebuilds and occasionally start them all over again when the first one sinks into the swamp.

Rebuilds take patience. They can be exciting, and they can be frustrating. Those feelings are not mutually exclusive, in this case. The start of a rebuild can be exciting, because it ushers what is oftentimes a much-needed change in direction. There are typically big transactions that occur at the start of a rebuild, and big transactions are exciting.

The middle part of the rebuild sucks, and is the frustrating part. For several years, the on-field major league product is bad, and watching bad teams isn’t fun. The hopes of the team lie in minor league prospects, and minor league prospects don’t always pan out. When they don’t pan out is when the rebuild starts all over again, and that’s the worst kind of rebuild.

But as exciting as the beginning of a rebuild can be, nothing tops the realization of a successful rebuild and the expectation of imminent success that looms. Years of patience are awarded by the arrival of top prospects reaching their potential, coupled with a couple of marquee additions to compliment the shiny budding plants that are the homegrown prospects. The successful rebuild culminates with the flip of a switch, seemingly overnight, from “rebuild” mode to “contend.” It’s as liberating a switch as there is to be flipped as a front office executive of a major league franchise, and it’s a switch the Cubs are flipping as we speak.

A year after the promotion of top prospects Jorge Soler and Javier Baez and the breakouts of Anthony Rizzo and Jake Arrieta, with the arrival of Kris Bryant imminent, the Cubs look to push their chips in the middle for 2015 and beyond.

They’ve been rumored for one of the big three free agent starting pitchers – Jon Lester, Max Scherzer and James Shields – since before free agency began. Their rotation, after Arrieta, is very thin, so it will take more than just one of those aces to build a competitive staff. The Cubs shored up one of those holes by signing former-Cub Jason Hammel to a two-year, $20 million contract yesterday afternoon.

The Cubs signed Hammel to a two-year contract less than 12 months after they signed him to a one-year contract, which nicely reflects how the state of the organization has changed in that time. Last offseason, when the Cubs inked Hammel, they did so as a rebuilding club. The plan with Hammel was the same as the plan with Scott Feldman a year prior: sign him to a cheap, one-year deal, fix him, and flip him at the deadline for prospects. Feldman netted the Cubs Arrieta, who pitched like a legitimate ace last year. Hammel helped the Cubs acquire Addison Russell. But this Hammel, this one is here to stay. This one is to help the Cubs win now, rather than in the future.

As is the hiring of Joe Maddon. As is the trade for Miguel Montero, which the Cubs completed on Tuesday afternoon, sending a couple of low level pitching prospects to Arizona. Welington Castillo is the current catcher for the Cubs, and he’s actually outproduced Montero by a considerable margin the last couple years, racking up 5.6 WAR to just 2.1 WAR from Montero. But there’s a few things about that.

First, Castillo has likely overperformed at the plate in that time, while Montero has likely underperformed. After four years of above-league average production at the plate, Montero’s offense plummeted in 2013 as he dealt with a lower back injury. He improved in a healthy 2014, but was still below-league average, thanks to a .275 BABIP. Montero has a career .306 BABIP, and while his age likely brings that down a few ticks, there isn’t much that’s changed in his batted ball profile to warrant such a steep dropoff. Steamer projects Montero’s BABIP and wRC+ to return to league-average levels in 2015 and forecasts him as a +3 WAR player. Castillo, on the other hand, has had his offensive numbers inflated by a .347 BABIP in 2013 that was likely an aberration. Steamer projects Castillo for a 95 wRC+ in 2015, and forecasts him as a +2 WAR player.

But there’s something that our WAR figures — and the Steamer projections — leave out, and it’s the biggest difference between the two catchers. You know what it is. Of course, it’s pitch framing. By StatCorner’s calculations, Montero was the most valuable framer in the league last year, at +24 runs. According to BaseballProspectus, Montero’s framing was worth about +19 runs, putting him in the top 10. Castillo, on the other hand, was valued at -24 runs by StatCorner and -11 by BP, putting him in the bottom five. No matter how much weight you put into the framing numbers, or which site’s formula you trust more, it’s clear: in going from Castillo to Montero, the Cubs would be going from one of the league’s worst framers to one of the best.


It makes sense for a team trying to court a high-profile free agent pitcher to acquire an elite pitch framer, especially when the one they currently have is the opposite of elite. Lester, notably, experienced first-hand what a switch like that feels like this year.

Maybe you don’t believe pitch framing numbers should be weighted as heavily as they are. I’m not even sure that I do. The numbers agree Montero is about a +2 WAR framer. Let’s cut that in half. Add it to his optimistic +3 WAR Steamer projection, and Montero comes out as something like a +3.5 WAR catcher in 2015. The numbers agree Castillo is something like a -15 framer, let’s regress that to -5. Castillo comes out as something like a +1.5 WAR catcher. It isn’t a monumental upgrade, but it’s an upgrade.

It looks even nicer when you consider the platoon splits. Castillo can’t hit right-handed pitching, but he’s run a 134 wRC+ in 206 plate appearances against lefties in his career (granted, .376 BABIP alert). Montero, on the other hand, has struggled mightily against left-handed pitching the last two seasons, but has been at least league-average against righties. Between the two, you’ve a lefty-masher who controls the running game as well as anyone, and you’ve also got an elite pitch-framer who hits righties. That’s an attractive combination not only for the Cubs lineup, but for a free agent pitcher considering coming to the Cubs.

The Cubs are expected to take on the entirety of Montero’s remaining $40 million, three-year deal, but given the forecasts and his framing abilities, that doesn’t seem like a terrible contract. Especially given that the Cubs have money. The payroll was just $93 million last year, but it was as high as $144 million in 2010. They’ve only got about $70 million on the books for 2015, and that number could double. Money is not an issue for the Cubs right now. If the they want to spend, they will.

Then there’s this:

Ken Rosenthal [emoji]10004[/emoji] @Ken_Rosenthal
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If #Cubs get Lester, industry source says next move would be to pursue big bat and try to accelerate revival. A bat in addition to Montero.

The Cubs are in that exciting, rare window where a multi-year rebuild appears to be complete, and the front office can finally have some fun in the open market. Front offices having fun typically translates to fans having fun, and there’s nothing not to like about what the Cubs are doing right now. They went out and got Joe Maddon to manage their championship-hopeful team. They went out and got Jason Hammel. They went out and got Miguel Montero, and that should help them be able to go out and get a top-tier starting pitcher. And even if/when they get that top-tier starting pitcher, they plan to go out and get more. Montero isn’t the biggest piece of the Cubs puzzle, but he’s a piece. It’s a puzzle the Cubs have been building for nearly five years, and it’s a puzzle that’s nearly complete.

 

[CP1708]

We all knew that the time was coming. The Cubs themselves talked rather openly about it. Blessed with the best system in baseball, the Cubs were coming up on a period of hopeful contention. The soft target, for many, was 2016. By that point, enough prospects might’ve established themselves, and the Cubs would be able to gun for the playoffs. But it was always reasonable to think the Cubs might try to accelerate things. That they might hit that transition between stockpiling and spending, and spend big to hurry things up. There was a way for the Cubs to become a potential playoff team next season. Whether you think they’re there yet, the Cubs have now checked off a lot of boxes.

In Jason Hammel, the Cubs just locked up a pretty talented starter for the back of the rotation. In Miguel Montero, the Cubs upgraded behind the plate, getting kind of a poor man’s Russell Martin equivalent. And now the Cubs have their big fish, agreeing with Jon Lester for six years and $155 million. For Lester, the Cubs were long considered a favorite, but there’s a difference between something being possible and something getting done. We can now, officially, say this: the Cubs are ready to try to go to the playoffs. There’s no mistaking their intentions, and Lester’s a giant upgrade.


In a sense, this is when it’s most anticlimactic. We’ve already written and read about how Lester has changed, and which teams could end up with him. You’ve already thought about the Cubs adding Lester before, so now they’ve simply gotten that done, and you can think thoughts you’ve already thought. But it’s still worth a rundown now that we have an official decision and official terms. What do we make of the Lester domino falling? We’ll proceed in three sections.

Do the terms make sense, overall?

The Cubs inked Lester for $155 million. According to reports, the Red Sox offered the same number of years, but $20 million less. What that makes it sound like is a desperate overpay. In reality, the numbers don’t make it look godawful. Depending on what you do with them, this might even look totally normal.

For example, consider what ZiPS has to say about Lester’s next six years:

Dan Szymborski @DSzymborski
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In a neutral park, ZiPS projects 6/151 for Lester. That's why you're hearing talk of 150-160 and it's not completely crazy.

This is where we get into the art of things. The last three years, Lester has averaged about 4.5 WAR. On one hand, you’d want to project a decline, but on the other hand, Lester is also coming off by far his best season of the three, with some demonstrable changes to his approach. It wouldn’t be unreasonable to figure Lester might be a 4.5-win pitcher next season. What if you set the cost of a win at $7 million, and then inflated by the customary 5%? Then given the standard half-win per-season decline, Lester would be worth about $151 million.

And what if you set the cost of a win at $7.5 million? The market’s been pretty crazy so far. Then you get Lester being worth about $162 million. Alternatively, what if Lester is a 4-win pitcher? Then you’re more like $125 – 135 million. But understand how much estimation there is in here. It’s basically guessing at a rate of decline. It’s making an educated guess on the cost of a win, but it’s guessing at the annual rate of inflation. All the tables you see along these lines — they’re guides. This is ultimately how teams end up determining and structuring contracts, but they’re using some different projections. I think the safe conclusion is that the Cubs didn’t make a wild overpay or anything. Maybe, they wound up a little high, but the math is a lot more promising than, say, the Nelson Cruz math, and the Cubs don’t even need to worry about losing a draft pick. So you don’t have to try to build that value in.

In retrospect, if the Red Sox had offered Lester in spring training what they offered Lester this week, they probably would’ve had him signed. But when Lester was in spring training, he hadn’t yet had his absolutely phenomenal 2014. He rather significantly raised his stock, to the point where he’s more or less deserving of $155 million.

Are the Cubs a good fit?

The Cubs are a good fit. When you’re making a big commitment to a player in his 30s, you’re assuming the real value will come toward the front of the contract. So, these things only really make sense when you’re a team that might be playing for something. The Cubs are no longer a conditional contender. The Cubs are just a contender. They added Lester, another starter, and a catcher in a matter of days.

Steamer. We have to look at it, because we don’t really have anything else to look at. Based on Steamer projections and the depth charts, now, the Cubs rank seventh in the National League in projected team WAR. They’re sandwiched in between the Giants and the Brewers, with the Rockies mysteriously also just ahead. The Cubs don’t look as good as the Cardinals, and they don’t project quite as well as the Pirates, but this looks kind of like a .500 ballclub with massive upside. Projections always come with error bars, and when you have a team with as many talented and unproven young players as the Cubs, you figure the error bars are wider. But while the team still has weaknesses, most of the roster’s been shored up.

Lester’s impact is obvious. Montero’s impact is obvious. Hammel’s impact is obvious. The Cubs might still want another starter, but they already have depth, with Lester and Jake Arrieta forming a cruel 1-2. They could stand to get better in the outfield, but everywhere else is set, generally with depth or some fallback options if the top guy gets hurt or struggles. And naturally, the Cubs’ arrow is pointing up. Lester isn’t joining a team with a narrow, short-term window. There are reasons to believe he should age well, and the Cubs should only get stronger and stronger. So Lester can try to help a contender for several years, instead of for one or a couple.

As it happens, rather conveniently, the Cubs don’t have many other big commitments. Lester’s salary can be offset by the young players getting paid next to nothing for their contributions. Anthony Rizzo‘s under contract forever at very reasonable prices. The same goes for Starlin Castro. Edwin Jackson‘s money will be off the books in two years. Montero will be off the books in three years. There’s no question the Cubs can afford this and build around this. And I might as well advance an argument about an intangible: Lester sends a message to the Cubs’ players themselves. Even if they don’t end up in the playoffs in 2015, the young players should be better for their experience in the seasons to follow, and Lester brings an element that wasn’t previously present in the clubhouse.

Now what?

Now the rest of the offseason can happen. Lester was holding up almost everything, even for players seemingly unrelated to the sweepstakes. Teams put together a variety of plans, and now the Red Sox have to go to the plan that doesn’t involve Jon Lester. Same for the Giants. This affects free-agent pitchers, this affects pitcher trade candidates, and this affects outfielders and shortstops and everyone else. You also wonder if this might affect the Reds, causing them to lean more toward stripping down instead of building up.

The Red Sox have options. They’ll presumably re-visit Cole Hamels talks, and they’ll be in to some extent on Jordan Zimmermann, Johnny Cueto, James Shields, and others. Relatedly or unrelatedly, the market’s now been set for Max Scherzer, and you’ve also got Brandon McCarthy floating around. The Red Sox still aren’t in an urgent situation. Neither are the Giants, if they were willing to offer Lester even more than the Cubs. It just becomes a quicker game now. Teams have been preparing for weeks for what they would do after the Lester decision. Now there’s that much less mystery.

That Boston got outbid by so much indicates that they were prepared to be turned down. That San Francisco might’ve had the high offer indicates that they were more all-in on this. There’s maybe a little more concern in the Giants front office. The Red Sox front office is left with questions yet unsettled. The Cubs front office, meanwhile, got to make a signature move. This move broadcasts where the Cubs believe they are to the rest of the league. And maybe the most incredible thing is the Cubs don’t even necessarily need Lester to work out that well, given what else they’ve got. But, imagine what they could be if he’s Jon Lester.

 

[illmatic34]

Making moves

 

[odp31]

Making moves

Definitely nice to be in this position for a change

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

Rumors floating around the Cubs are interested in Matt Kemp
No thanks on that deal...

 

[dland24]

Rumors floating around the Cubs are interested in Matt Kemp

No thanks on that deal...

What deal?  lol.  Have you read about a potential trade?

 

[arstyle27]

Kemp is making wayyyyy too much money. Ill take him if LA picks up most of that contract.

 

[CP1708]

I rather look at Upton from Atlanta.

 

[CP1708]

In October, we dwell on baseball’s unpredictability, searching for creative ways to say “crapshoot.” But few of that month’s columns mention that baseball becomes less predictable when the offseason starts. Baseball Prospectus, a company that makes its bones by forecasting player performance, team standings, and even the outcome of individual playoff games, implicitly concedes that there’s no model sophisticated enough to touch the hot stove. In its annual free-agent rankings, BP includes a predicted destination for every free agent from “Randy,” a random-number generator. Of course, free-agent signings aren’t really random: In the long run, free agents gravitate toward big-market clubs with a history of having high payrolls, just as the teams with the better regular-season records win a higher percentage of postseason series. But Randy reminds us that in any given winter, anyone can go anywhere.1

We can’t appeal to authority to improve on Randy’s predictions, because there are no authorities on the offseason. Only three of 28 team executives surveyed last month foresaw Pablo Sandoval leaving San Francisco. Only five thought the Marlins would extend Giancarlo Stanton. We’re bad at this, and the insiders aren’t any better. So it’s worth taking note when an offseason sequence unfolds the way we thought it would.

The White Sox completed a Monday trade and signing that briefly made them the leaders in the clubhouse for biggest offseason upgrade. Tuesday was the Cubs’ turn: After trading for Diamondbacks catcher Miguel Montero earlier in the day, they landed Jon Lester late Tuesday night, ending an almost comical sequence of reports, refutations, and uninformative updates as the lefty fielded competing offers from the Red Sox, Dodgers, and Giants. To acquire Lester, Montero, and starter Jason Hammel, a 2014 trade-deadline departure whom they brought back on Monday for two years and $20 million, the Cubs spent way more money and added more wins than the White Sox. But nothing they did took anyone in the industry by surprise.
On Monday morning, GM Jed Hoyer said, “We’re going to add multiple starting pitchers.” By Tuesday night, he’d made good on his vow. The Cubs’ path to contention has always been too clear for the team to be cagey: trade veterans for prospects and salary relief, make the most of high draft picks, spend on the international market, and supplement with trades and free agents to fill whatever needs the farm system couldn’t supply.

We knew this would be the winter when the Cubs entered that final phase, and that Lester, who turns 31 in January, would be part of their plan. Other events have also proceeded as we have foreseen: When manager Joe Maddon opted out of the final year of his contract with the Rays, Chicago was the rumored destination. It was obvious, also, that the Cubs would want a better starting catcher than Welington Castillo. Initial speculation centered on Russell Martin, the best free agent available, but as soon as Martin signed with Toronto, Montero became the best candidate. The Cubs are making every highly paid pundit and barely read blogger sound prescient. More than that, they’re making climbing out of the cellar seem as simple as a spammer’s prescription for earning a fortune from home.

It takes talent to be this predictable, though: The Cubs’ winter was easier to anticipate than the White Sox’s because the Cubs had fewer holes. There are so many ways in which a rebuild can run off the rails before it reaches this point: veterans who don’t bring back the expected return, prospects who get injured or exposed at Double-A, free agents who don’t arrive right on schedule or who refuse to sign. While it would be premature to declare their mission accomplished before they top 73 wins, the Cubs have avoided every pitfall so far. Their blueprint has been visible, yet they still haven’t been stopped.

Lester was the centerpiece of this preordained offseason: Even the terms weren’t unexpected. In a profile of Lester last month, MLB Trade Rumors’s Steve Adams came within $2 million of predicting the guaranteed total: $155 million over six seasons,2 which gives Lester the second-highest average annual salary ($25.8 million) for a pitcher, behind Clayton Kershaw’s $30.7 million. There’s nothing complicated about the contract. Lester is one of the best pitchers in baseball, and the Cubs, who’ve developed more hitting prospects than they have open positions, needed better pitching than they could promote from within. Aside from the factor that applies to every player — TV-contract-accelerated salary inflation — there are a few reasons why Lester received a record salary for a free-agent arm:

He’s Already Adjusted: When they enter the league, pitchers (as a group) are at the peak of their powers. Projecting any individual arm beyond that requires teams to estimate when the inevitable descent will start and how steep it will be. Prior to 2014, Lester’s strikeout rate had declined by more than 25 percent relative to its 2009 high. And this year, his velocity was down more than a mile and a half per hour compared to its peak in that same 2009 season. Nonetheless, Lester recorded a career-best walk rate, a big rebound in strikeout rate, and, thanks to his increased efficiency, a new high in innings pitched.

Lester recovered his former dominance by doing a better job of repeating his delivery, as measured by the spread in his release points. He also altered his pitch mix to emphasize his cutter and curve. And as Jeff Sullivan observed, he improved against righties by pitching farther inside. Those adjustments would seem to suggest that as Lester’s stuff tails off further, he can compensate with command, smarts, and a deep arsenal that makes him less reliant on the fastball than a starter with fewer options available. However, he might want to work on his pickoff move.

Draft-Pick Compensation Cost Not Included: Because Boston traded Lester in July, he was ineligible for a qualifying offer, unlike Max Scherzer and James Shields. As a result, his suitors knew that they wouldn’t have to sacrifice a compensation pick to sign him. Thanks to their losing seasons, the Red Sox and Cubs will pick seventh and ninth, respectively, in next year’s amateur draft. The first 10 picks are protected, so both teams were aware that they’d have to surrender only a second-round pick to sign a player carrying a compensation sentence.3 Still, teams place some value on those selections, and if Lester hadn’t been exempt from the qualifying offer, his eventual deal might have been for less money. By trading Lester away during the season, the Red Sox indirectly made it less costly for their competition to sign him this winter.

He’s Not an Obvious Health Risk: Lester has made at least 31 starts in seven straight seasons. The best indication of a pitcher’s future health is his injury history, and Lester’s isn’t long: Since his recovery from cancer, only a short 2011 DL stint and a few day-to-day injuries mar his perfect record. Yet despite his durability and frequent postseason appearances, Lester’s highest-workload seasons can’t compare to those of Justin Verlander, CC Sabathia, or, more recently, Shields and Madison Bumgarner. Nor did he rack up innings at an early age, reaching 200 innings for the first time at 24. Plus, Lester’s easy motion looks less worrisome than Scherzer’s high-effort release. Unlike major league teams, which can base studies on archived scouting reports, we can’t say whether a wonky delivery is a reliable indicator of early decline, but many evaluators believe it is. And of course, it couldn’t have hurt that Lester has a slightly stronger postseason record than Scherzer and an agent given to less lofty demands.


To the extent that it’s possible for a free-agent pitcher, Lester is free of red flags. According to Baseball-Reference, the lefty with the most similar stats through age 30 is Andy Pettitte. It’s a tantalizing comparison: Not only did the two post near-identical innings totals (Lester 1,596; Pettitte 1,584.1) and career ERA+ marks (Lester 121; Pettitte 117) through age 30, they have mirror-image builds and identical five-pitch repertoires highlighted by signature cutters. Pettitte’s slow decline phase is a tough act to follow, but the Cubs can accept the risk that Lester won’t replicate the best-case outcome because they’ve minimized their exposure in other areas. By developing position players and importing proven pitchers, they’ve avoided the injury nexus, the dangerous early-twenties period when pitcher attrition rates reach their pinnacle. And with most of their roster years away from arbitration, let alone free agency — only the White Sox, Marlins, and Astros entered the winter with less cash committed to 2015 — they’ll have plenty of payroll to play with even if Lester goes south.

On top of Lester and Hammel, the Cubs added Montero for two prospects whose loss won’t be felt in a stacked farm system: 20-year-old Jefferson Mejia ranked 18th on Kiley McDaniel’s comprehensive list of Cubs prospects whom he projects to be big leaguers, while 24-year-old Zack Godley, who hasn’t advanced beyond High-A, didn’t merit a mention. Montero’s BABIP and power have dipped in the past two seasons as his stroke has produced more ground balls, and he hit only two homers during an extended post-All-Star-break slump. However, Montero’s batted-ball rates didn’t degrade further in the second half, and he walks often enough to make him at least an average offensive catcher. Although teams started calling about Castillo as soon as Montero switched teams, the younger catcher would make a perfect platoon mate if the Cubs decide to keep him: Montero, a left-handed hitter, has historically been much more productive against right-handed pitching, while the right-handed Castillo has crushed lefties. In addition, Montero is a sizable upgrade on defense. Although his caught-stealing rate has slipped some since it topped 40 percent in 2011 and 2012, he remains above average at framing, a skill that Castillo still hasn’t mastered.

The Cubs, who had the second-youngest position players of any club last season, will count on youth just as much next year, with Montero the only projected starter who’ll be more than 29 on Opening Day. The Cubs are betting that Javier Baez and Arismendy Alcantara will make more contact. They’re hoping there won’t be a book on Kris Bryant when last year’s minor league home run king arrives, and that Jorge Soler’s inexperience won’t be exposed in his first full season. They’ll have to build a bullpen out of lesser-known names, and the rotation is still one starter away from representing a strength. There are bound to be a few faltering first steps, but the clock counting down to contention is about to zero out.

So with the primary items on the Cubs’ wish list crossed off, what’s next for the teams that lost out on Lester? In the wake of Sandoval’s departure, watching Lester send a rose to somebody else has to hurt Giants GM Brian Sabean, who’ll now turn his attention back to other rumored objects of interest. For the Dodgers, who can console themselves with Kershaw and Zack Greinke, the pain is probably less acute. And for the runner-up Red Sox, who may regret not going higher with their extension offer last spring, losing Lester is a setback, but not a disaster.

The Sox offered Lester a six-year deal, which would have been the longest they’d ever awarded a free-agent pitcher. Given John Henry’s hard-line stance on contract length for over-30 players, that sixth year (plus the owner’s recruiting trip to Atlanta) is a testament to the team’s interest, but the $20 million gap between the winning bid and Boston’s — which the Red Sox must have had a chance to close — says the Sox weren’t desperate. Nor should they have been. Before Lester made his decision, Sox GM Ben Cherington cited “15 to 20 starting pitcher scenarios” that the team had considered as potential routes to the “good rotation” that he’s promised fans. In addition to pursuing remaining free agents Scherzer, Shields, and Brandon McCarthy, Boston could try to loosen Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr.’s death grip on Cole Hamels or package surplus position players for one of many one-year rentals remaining on the post–Jeff Samardzija market.

When the Red Sox drafted Lester in 2002, they were still two seasons away from ending their 86-year stretch without a title. Since then, they’ve won two with Lester on the staff. While the lefty was tempted to return to his roots, winning another World Series in Boston must have seemed passé compared to the prospect of breaking a second curse with the Cubs. By accepting Chicago’s offer, Lester brought Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer, his old/new employers, significantly closer to completing a mission much like the one they undertook more than a decade ago in Boston. Whatever the sequel’s outcome, they’ll all be better paid.

 

[CP1708]

SAN DIEGO – It was "dig me" day for the Chicago Cubs on Wednesday at the winter meetings in Southern California. The phrase was coined by pitching great Greg Maddux, in reference to the day after a stellar start: Everyone digs the pitcher who just threw a masterpiece.

That was the feeling around the Cubs after they signed pitchers Jon Lester and Jason Hammel and traded for catcher Miguel Montero, formerly of the Arizona Diamondbacks. That buzz led to plenty of speculation Wednesday. Just hours after getting the good news about Lester, the Cubs were suddenly linked -- mostly via Twitter -- to big bats, such as the Atlanta Braves' Justin Upton, and more pitching, such as free-agent right-hander James Shields.

However, having used up a good portion of their budget -- how much, the Cubs aren't saying -- and with reluctance to trade young assets, their offseason might be slowing down.

“People ask if we're all-in for '15, and the best response is, 'We're all-in for the future,'” team president Theo Epstein said Wednesday. “And the future starts in 2015.”

“We haven’t given up any of our most significant prospects in these deals," he continued. "We haven’t given up a draft pick in these deals. We preserved our future. We’re trying to build toward a long run. We won’t sacrifice that, even if we maximize our 2015 roster.”

Then Epstein said there’s no room for two $100 million pitchers -- at least not this offseason. That would mean Shields is out. So too would be Max Scherzer, much to the dismay -- presumably -- of agent Scott Boras. Boras held court Wednesday with a throng of reporters, as he does once every meetings, and he commended the Cubs, as well as the White Sox, for spending money. But he thinks the Cubs should do more.

“Much like swimming pools, when there’s too many kids in the pool, it changes the color of the water,” Boras joked. “So you’ve got to make sure that that combination is appropriate to win."

In other words, he wants the Cubs to spend more money on veterans, which they will try to do, according to the front office. Those veterans might not be the ones Boras wants, as David Ross and Jonny Gomes remain in play, or at least more so than Upton or another expensive infielder or outfielder. Adding another starting pitcher doesn’t seem to make much sense, unless the Cubs move one out in a deal.

“We have a ton of starting pitching depth,” Epstein said. “You need it. Some of those guys can end up in the bullpen.”

Lester, Hammel, Jake Arrieta, Kyle Hendricks, Travis Wood, Tsuyoshi Wada, Jacob Turner, Felix Doubront, Dallas Beeler, Dan Straily and Eric Jokisch are all contenders for a spot in the rotation. Then there’s the underperforming Edwin Jackson. The Cubs haven’t reached the point of dealing with his status just yet, but they will need to before April.

Back to the offense: Epstein didn’t rule out anything, but if keeping assets is important and budgetary concerns start to play a part, then read between the lines. Both assets and money would likely be needed to get a hitter, considering there are no great ones left in free agency. Even if there were, the much-reported notion that the Cubs need time for their young offense to develop is still true.

At least they can’t be called cheap anymore. But can they be called contenders? That remains to be seen, even after a great start to memorable winter meetings.

As we have said in this thread from day 1. Long haul. Not just a one year run, or a quick fix. Build the team the RIGHT way.

We'll be better next year, surely, but 2016....that's when the real fun begins. Then, we really get to have a good time.

 

[CP1708]

SAN DIEGO – They came. They negotiated. They conquered.

OK, maybe it wasn’t that dramatic for the Chicago Cubs, but the 2014 winter meetings might someday be looked back upon as the start of something special.

“We have a plan and we hope this week was a big step in executing that plan,” general manager Jed Hoyer said Thursday as the meetings came to a close. “If we’re looking back having won, then a lot of memories -- not just these winter meetings, but a lot of things -- will be enjoyable.”

In all honesty, The Plan started a long time ago, probably before Hoyer and his boss, Theo Epstein, even agreed to take the helm of the franchise that’s gone the longest in professional sports without winning a championship. The two discussed it before signing on: A rebuild was the only way to go.

Hoyer indicated that the Cubs were in the “fourth or fifth inning” of this offseason, and that might apply to their rebuilding efforts overall. After all, they know they haven’t won anything yet, and no one gets a prize for winning the offseason.

“We don’t get anything out of people talking about us in the winter,” Hoyer said.

There is one thing the Cubs have accomplished. In the span of a couple of days this week they have destroyed the narrative that they’re cheap. Dead. And buried. Actually, that started to die the day they hired Joe Maddon for $5 million a year while still paying Rick Renteria to not manage.

And as much as ownership didn’t have the funds for Epstein & Co. when he first arrived, it didn’t much matter once the Cubs' plan was implemented. Epstein has repeated the notion -- maybe not in so many words -- that tanking is still a valuable strategy, and it's possible that not having that money a couple of years ago was the best thing for him. Yes, he has said that on a number of occasions. Finishing in the middle of the pack doesn’t net you a Kris Bryant.

Here’s the bottom line moving forward: Anything the Cubs do the rest of this offseason is gravy. They have their No. 1 pitcher in Jon Lester. They have a pitch-framing catcher in Miguel Montero, who will help the staff with that ability alone. And they added three veterans -- those two and Jason Hammel -- who can set the tone for the young team. One or two more “clubhouse dudes,” as Maddon put it this week, and the offseason is a grand success.

“We leave here with some irons in the fire both trade-wise and free-agent-wise,” Hoyer said. “We’re in the fourth to fifth inning of the offseason now. ... If you stay active and stay involved, sometimes things might happen later in the offseason you might not have even expected.”

Hoyer didn’t mean it this way, but for those of you holding out hope for a big bat to come to Chicago, or another surprise on the mound, the Cubs GM just left the door open. Anything seems possible with this team now. And that, more than anything, might be the best takeaway with the Cubs right now. Small-market thinking is on its way out.

“There’s a lot more work to be done on our roster,” Hoyer said. “We’re far from a finished product right now.”

Remember those words come spring and summer, because they will apply then, too. The Cubs aren’t done building their team, but they’re entering a much more interesting stage after setting the foundation. That’s when the memories are made.

“No memory is good unless we’re looking back having won,” Hoyer said.

 

[CP1708]

Chicago Cubs -- Grade: A+

The Cubs have had the best offseason of any club so far, starting with the hiring of manager Joe Maddon away from the Rays. They then re-signed pitcher Jason Hammel after trading him in July and solved the catching position with the acquisition of Miguel Montero from the Diamondbacks. However, their biggest acquisition, of course, was the signing of their new ace Jon Lester, winning a bidding war over the Giants, Red Sox and Dodgers. The Cubs' timetable to contend was 2016, but with one or two moves they could be a surprise team by the second half of 2015 if the prospects were to develop ahead of schedule.

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

Jason Hammel deal was made official today.

Also ABC 7 has just signed a new TV deal with the Cubs for 25 games....Not sure how I feel about this, since WGN been broadcasting Cubs games since I was a kid.

 

[CP1708]

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2014/12/7/7351045/chicago-cubs-top-20-prospects-for-2015

And now 2015 Minor League Rankings are coming out, and we shine brightly in this department.

Bottom line: the Cubs have a stellar offensive group at the top and lots of depth behind them. The pitching situation is improving steadily, and the front office has shown the ability to find talent in the draft, the trade market, and the international scene. They don’t just dump money on problems: they allocate well too.

 

[CP1708]

The Cubs have agreed to a one-year contract with free-agent reliever Jason Motte, pending a physical, a team source told ESPN.com.

The deal is for $4.5 million, a source said.

Motte has spent his whole career with the Cardinals and was their closer in 2011 when they won the World Series. He later had elbow trouble and missed the entire 2013 season following Tommy John surgery.

Last season, Motte struggled through back injuries, posting a 4.68 ERA in 29 appearances.

Before missing 2013, Motte had a career year in 2012. He made 67 appearances, pitched 72 innings, racked up 42 saves and had a 2.75 ERA.

Low risk-high reward type signing. If he fails, shrug it off like nothin.

If he flourishes, under Bosio ( ) then we get a steal.

2010, 11, and 12, he posted 2.24, 2.25, 2.75 ERA's with WHIP around 1. If he rebounds from TJS, he's a solid add.


Bosio.

 

[CP1708]

Marco Hernandez going to Boston as the PTBNL for Felix Doubront.

Middle infielder (we can afford to let one of those go) Light hitting, decent glove. Only 22.

So, we moved a young middle infielder where we have a ton of depth, for a mid 20's lefty arm. Fair deal any way you look at it.

 

[CP1708]

Among the many comments yesterday by and about new Chicago Cubs lefty Jon Lester, one in particular stuck out at me as worth an extra glance, even if just for fun. Well, in addition to the deer urine comment, that is.

Jon Greenberg has a very healthy write-up on all things Lester press conference at ESPN, and you should give it a read. The thrust of the piece is about the obvious risk attached to a $155 million investment in a pitcher’s arm, and about how a pitcher like Lester could and may maintain a high level of performance on into his 30s. The Cubs did their homework, which can never eliminate the risk of a breakdown or injury, but it helps. It’s a good read.

The comment, though, at which I wanted to take an extra look is this one:

“He’s left-handed, and left-handed pitchers tend to perform better throughout their contracts than right-handed pitchers,” Epstein said, according to Greenberg. “He’s got the right kind of pitch mix that will allow him to age gracefully. He doesn’t get hitters out just one way, especially now that his curveball is back in the mix, where he’s working both sides of the plate. The cutter is a weapon that ages very well. If you look at Andy Pettitte, he aged extremely well through his 30s. He’s a reasonable [comparison]. The second half of Jon Lester’s career you want to look like Andy Pettitte.”

Setting aside the data points that suggest Lester is among the better bets to stay healthy and effective into his 30s (Lester’s healthy arm so far in his career is another one), I want to linger on that Pettitte comp. If things play out that way for the Cubs, I think they’ll be exceedingly happy with this signing.

Between 2003 and 2008 – the six seasons starting with his age 31 season (Lester will be 31 next year) – Andy Pettitte posted a 3.83 ERA, 3.61 FIP, and 3.58 xFIP over 1147.1 innings (just shy of 200 per year). In that span, which you should remember was a very different offensive era, he struck out 18.7% of the batters he faced, and walked just 6.5%. He accumulated 23.8 WAR in those six seasons. That’s all rather fantastic for a guy aged 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, and 36.

Pettitte, 6’5″ and 225 lbs, was a big, strong lefty, not unlike Lester, who is listed at 6’4″ and 240 lbs. Like Lester, Pettitte never leaned too hard on any one pitch, instead working a five-pitch mix, including a four-seamer, a sinker, a cutter, a curveball, and a changeup. Incidentally, Lester also generally mixes five pitches: a four-seamer, a sinker, a cutter, a curveball, and a changeup. And Lester does it in roughly the same proportions as Pettitte did (see Pettitte at Brooks, see Lester at Brooks). We don’t have accurate velocity data on Pettitte before 2007, but he was still finding success then without a fastball that topped 90mph very frequently. Lester’s four-seamer sat around 93mph in 2014. So that’s nice.

Prior to that age 31 season, by the way, Pettitte had a 3.78 career FIP and a 3.68 career xFIP. Lester currently stands at 3.58, and 3.67.

Every player is a unique individual, subject to latent things that will impact his aging and performance in ways that will always be obscured to outside perspective. But, superficially, Pettitte’s age 31 to 36 seasons look not only like a fantastic outcome for Lester’s age 31 to 36 seasons, they also look like a reasonable outcome for which to hope based on everything we know at this point.