Official 2023 Chicago Cubs Season Thread Vol: (17-17)

[CP1708]

The phrase "wait 'til next year" is a popular one for fans of perennial losers, but no professional sports team shares a more lasting affiliation with the axiom than the Chicago Cubs; there's even a movie about the team with that exact title. For the Cubs, winning has rarely been a this-year thing, and so the fan base has had to take solace in the future, even if that future has often brought just more losing. Well, Cubs fans, I have some good news, even if you've grown tired of hearing this; next year really might be your year.

Much has been written about the young talent coming up through Chicago's farm system. Cuban sensation Jorge Soler is going to be the newest hyped prospect to reach the big leagues when he makes his debut today, when he'll join Arismendy Alcantara and Javier Baez to form a trio of exciting young rookies. And these guys are just the first course, as even better prospects -- third baseman/maybe outfielder Kris Bryant and shortstop/maybe second baseman Addison Russell are the cream of the Cubs crop -- are not too far behind. The Cubs have so much young talent that people are actually stressing out over whether the team will actually have room for all of the youngsters on the roster at the same time.

Of course, prospect hype doesn't guarantee major-league success, and Cubs fans have been burned by supposed waves of talent that didn't pan out before. So what's different this time? Well, for starters, this roster is a lot better than people might realize, even without factoring in all the prospects on the rise.

Yes, I'm talking about the roster of a team that is currently 59-72, good for last place in the NL Central. On the surface, this is just another terrible Cubs team in a long line of terrible Cubs teams, but once you dig a little bit deeper, you'll find that this team has actually shown some real promise this year.

I've written here before about a model we host at FanGraphs called BaseRuns; it's the same concept as pythagorean expected win-loss record, just with better inputs, stripping out more of a season's randomness than just looking at run differential. By focusing solely on the value of positive (or negative) events a team incurs without regard for the order in which they occur, we can get a better sense of how a team performed than by looking at win-loss record or even run differential.

And here's where Cubs fans should find optimism; by BaseRuns expected record, the Cubs have played like a .500 team this year. Their expected record is actually better than that of the first-place Kansas City Royals, in fact, and is not far off from what the teams contending for the NL wild cards are putting up. Here are the BaseRuns expected records for the NL teams in 2014 through Monday's games:

NL expected records
Team Expected Wins Expected Losses Expected Win%
Nationals 76 54 0.584
Dodgers 74 58 0.559
Pirates 69 62 0.524
Brewers 68 63 0.521
Giants 68 63 0.519
Cardinals 67 63 0.517
Braves 66 65 0.505
Cubs 65 65 0.499
Marlins 63 67 0.484
Reds 62 69 0.473
Rockies 61 70 0.468
Mets 60 71 0.455
Padres 59 71 0.453
Phillies 58 73 0.446
Diamondbacks 56 75 0.429

This isn't a great team, of course, but the only reason the Cubs are in the mix for a top pick again next summer is because they're 28th in both clutch hitting and clutch pitching this season. They haven't hit well when it mattered and their pitchers haven't kept important runs from scoring, so despite average overall performance, they've lost eight more games than expected.

So why is this good news? Because clutch performance has basically no predictive value, and the historical record of teams that dramatically underperformed their BaseRuns expected record in one year shows that these teams often improve dramatically in the next year. Right now, the Cubs are 53 points of winning percentage below expectations; here are how the 11 most similar underperformers in recent history have done in the following season:

Underachievers
Team Winning% Next Year Winning% Improvement
2004 Brewers 0.416 0.500 0.084
2002 White Sox 0.500 0.531 0.031
2004 Mets 0.438 0.512 0.074
2002 Red Sox 0.574 0.586 0.012
2008 Braves 0.444 0.531 0.087
2009 Blue Jays 0.463 0.525 0.062
2005 Rangers 0.488 0.494 0.006
2009 Indians 0.401 0.426 0.025
2010 Rockies 0.512 0.451 -0.061
2013 Cubs 0.407 0.427 0.020
2008 Padres 0.389 0.463 0.074
Average 0.457 0.495 0.038


On average, these 11 teams underperformed their BaseRuns expectation by 53 points of winning percentage, the same mark as the Cubs are underperforming this year. Their overall winning percentage improved by 38 points in the next season, meaning that their record the next year came pretty close to their expected record in the prior season. Ten of the 11 teams improved their record in the next season. This is the kind of thing that is often referred to as regression toward the mean.

Of course, you might also notice that the 2013 Cubs are on that list because they did this last year, too. So I can understand some skepticism, given that the Cubs are now on Year 2 of the win-far-fewer-games-than-expected trick. It's tough to see one team underperform for 162 games and think it won't continue; it's almost impossible to watch a team do it for 324 games and still believe that.

And yet, that's what history shows. There are four teams, not including the current Cubs, that underperformed their expected winning percentage by a total of 100 points or more over two consecutive seasons since the start of 2002.

The 2004-2005 Tigers. They went 72-90 in 2004 and 71-91 in 2005, despite BaseRuns numbers that suggested they were roughly a .500 team in both years. In 2006, the Tigers went 95-67 and made it to the World Series.

The 2005-2006 Indians. While the Indians went 93-69 in 2005, they still managed to underperform their BaseRuns winning percentage by 47 points, and then they fell to 78-84 the next year despite an expected record of 89-73. The 2007 Indians went 96-66 and made it to the ALCS.

The 2009-2010 Nationals. The 2009 Nationals lost 103 games despite a BaseRuns record that indicated they were just bad instead of atrocious. And while they regressed up to their 2009 BaseRuns total the next year, they still underperformed their 2010 expected record by 38 points. In 2011, they jumped up to .500 ball by playing at their expected record, and they had the best winning percentage in baseball in 2012.

The 2009-2010 Diamondbacks. They lost 90+ games in both seasons, but their expected records suggested that they were not as terrible as their win-loss records suggested in either year. In 2011, they went 94-68 and won the NL West.

This is almost a complete list of the most "surprising" good teams in recent years, as two straight years of losing far more games than expected turned to winning almost overnight. In three of the four cases, the un-clutch teams immediately made the playoffs in the very next season; the fourth team made it in the second year afterwards. By wins and losses, these improvements are incredible; by BaseRuns, they're entirely reasonable, because these teams were always better than their records made them look.

And so are the 2014 Cubs. It might not have shown up in the standings yet, but even without the wave of prospects that are on the way, this team has performed like a roughly average Major League team. Add in some expected production from a few of the young kids and likely a significant free agent addition or two, and the Cubs are going to be everyone's sleeper pick next year. But it won't just be prospect hype and a big name addition. This is a decent team that is a lot closer to winning than their current record suggests.

 

[CP1708]

Updates on pitching this year. (look how completely similar they are across the board)

Neil Ramirez
39 games
33.1 inn
20 hits
12 walks
43 K’s
4 ER
1.08 ERA
0.96 WHIP


Kyle Hendricks
8 games
50.2 inn
40 hits
11 walks
31 K’s
10 ER
1.78 ERA
1.01 WHIP


Tsuyoshi Wada
8 games
45.2 inn
37 hits
11 walks
41 K’s
13 ER
2.56 ERA
1.05 WHIP


Pedro Strop
54 games
50.2 inn
32 hits
23 walks
56 K’s
13 ER
2.31 ERA
1.09 Whip


Hector Rondon
53 games
52.1 inn
47 hits
13 walks
55 K’s
16 ER
2.75 ERA
1.15 WHIP


Jake Arrieta
20 games
124.1 inn
93 hits
32 walks
127 K’s
35 ER
2.53 ERA
1.01 WHIP


Jeff Samardzija
17 games
108 inn
99 hits
31 walks
103 K’s
34 ER
2.83 ERA
1.20 WHIP


Jason Hammel
17 games
108.2 inn
88 hits
23 walks
104 K’s
36 ER
2.98 ERA
1.02 WHIP



Bosio

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

^

Jacob Turner takes the mound today......#InBosioWeTrust

 

[arstyle27]

The Soler era begins!!!!

 

[CP1708]

SOLER

 

[arstyle27]

That was dope!!

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

 

[JLD1523]

That ball was crushed by Soler.

 

[CP1708]

And we still have Bryant and Russell's debuts to look forward too pretty soon.

Alcantara homered in his 5th game, Baez his first, Soler his first.

 

[arstyle27]

Im getting giddy....need to stay calm lol

 

[CP1708]

My phone is now going insane because of what I tweeted.

CP ‏@CP1708 5m
@BleacherNation He has a 4.000 Slugging percentage. That would be a record if he maintained it.

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

Alcantara
Russell
Rizzo
Bryant
Baez
Castro
Soler
Schwarber
P

Can you imagine that line up?!?!

 

[CP1708]

Alcantara
Russell
Rizzo
Bryant
Baez
Castro
Soler
Schwarber
P

Can you imagine that line up?!?!

Many, many times I have.

 

[chicagokid23]

JORGE SOLER

 

[sportsjunkie]

JORGE SOLER. RUMBLE YOUNG MAN RUMBLE

 

[meyer23]

Im getting giddy....need to stay calm lol

I agree.

  As I've stated, I'm a bit of a pessimist with this team but I can't help but enjoy watching them now and see what's happening. 

 

[CP1708]

Prospects Will Break Your Heart
Pain Don't Hurt
by Jason Parks


As is often the case, internet-specific farewell addresses come off like award show acceptance speeches, complete with the sandpaper tongue stroking of all intimate associations of note, a solipsistic sandwich of fake meat, imitation cheese, and vinegar-based spread, delivered to you as consumable and delicious food despite the fact it was never intended for you to [actually] eat. I want you to eat this farewell. This farewell is for you. From the heart, I want to thank the readers of Baseball Prospectus for their curious eyes and minds, for embracing my peculiar brand of communication and pushing me beyond the assumed limitations of the medium. This will be my final article for Baseball Prospectus.

It was an oddly crisp morning back in the fall of 2007, and I stood in isolation near a roped off section of grass, premature for a backfield bullpen session scheduled to occur later on in the day. My senses were calmed by the familiar smells of a fresh mow, the slight flavor kick of nearby infield dirt atomized into the air, and the tepid gas station coffee that tasted like a cruel mix of tap water and motor oil. Solitary in my thoughts, I embraced the void around me and accepted a professional summons that would alter my life from that moment forward—and in that moment of emotional quarantine, I never felt more comforted in my life. Baseball.

Seven-plus years, several hundred articles, and several hundred thousand miles of travel later, I have finally arrived at the professional destination I started traveling toward on that backfield morning, and I am proud to announce that I have been offered and have accepted a scouting position with the Chicago Cubs. Needless to say I’m both humbled and honored to join such a storied franchise, a team rich with tradition and sorrow, one on a special trajectory with special hands now steering the ship. I will be disappearing into the shadows of my dream profession, moving my life and my understanding and supportive wife to the baseball landscape that is Arizona, where I will evaluate talent at the pro, amateur, and international levels at behest of the heads of those respective departments. Basically, this is a dream job that even my dream job couldn’t dream of.

We’ve reached the point in most speeches where the actor digs deep into his bag of industry acquaintances and pulls out a collection of notable names with notable punch, and the sermon carries forth with poetic vigor for the hungry masses to enjoy. We can go ahead and skip this part of the speech. The specific individuals that have pushed me in the past are the same ones that continue to push me in the present, and their significance exists beyond any words I could possibly throw together on a page. I remind these people of my appreciation whenever possible, and to give them spotlights for the sake of the platform doesn’t seem appropriate given the gravity of their meaning to me. They know who they are. They know what they have done.

Several of the aforementioned persons of significance are members of the Baseball Prospectus Prospect Team, a loyal group of hard-charging talent evaluators who were born with baseball in their blood and radar guns in their hands. I’ve never been more proud of anything in my life than the collective work we’ve put out over the last few years, and detaching from the daily prospect debates and discussions will be the most difficult aspect of my new path.

Over the following days, weeks, and months, Joe Hamrahi, Nick Faleris, Chris Mellen, and the rest of the team will continue to deploy the most thoughtful and intelligent prospect content available on the internet, with familiar names stepping up into larger lights, and unfamiliar names stepping into a new familiarity. Long before I joined Baseball Prospectus I was a fan of Baseball Prospectus, and given the impact personnel involved with the development and delivery of the content, I will continue to be a devoted reader of the site. (Hopefully these kind words are enough currency to warrant a comp account…….. What do you say, Joe?)

This is the point in the speech where the loquaciously pompous actor gets the strings treatment, a not so subtle reminder that the allotted time for loquacious pompousness has come and gone, and those that hung on every word have now moved on. To the readers of Baseball Prospectus, whose eyes and ears have bonded together to aid in the structural significance of my spine, I thank you for that collective strength and security. To all others, you know who you are, what you have done, and how I value your continued contributions as I move on to the next phase of my professional life.

See you at the fields

Jason Parks

Theo is KILLING it.

 

[CP1708]

I got my question on Fangraphs first thing this morning.

12:01
Comment From Chad
Do you expect the Cubs to become players for Giancarlo this offseason? Almora, Edwards, McKinney, and a 4th, maybe a lower level arm anywhere close enough for the Marlins to agree?

12:03
Eno Sarris: When I tried to put together a package that equaled Stanton's surplus value last year, it needed to be a top-10, a top-25 and another top 100 or two. I don't think that satisfies the requirements, but he does have one less (fewer?) year of control.

So we're still a smidge short, but as he noted, Stanton has one less year of control now, hence, the price should be lower in 2015 than it woulda been in 2014.


It's pssible it could need to be a Baez/Almora/Edwards type package. Which, could be spendy. :\

 

[proshares]

Some people think Baez is going to end up being the one to go if they trade for a star...

And yes Eno, it's one fewer you're a writer!

 

[CP1708]

I'm one of those someone's.

I love Baez, high hopes, but I also know that all the sexy he gives us, comes with a lot more chance for letdown. That makes him attractive, yet dangerous in terms of building. So Theo might try to sell high. I've seen plenty that think he's hoping for Baez to have a great month and a half, and then he would sell him high, with the "safer" Russell behind him waiting to step in.

If the cost was Baez/Almora/Edwards for Stanton, and he's still only 24-25, I would do that. Stanton replaces Almora anyways, Russell can fill in for Baez (and unclog that jam) and Edwards becomes the only give away pitcher. Knowing we're chasing a Scherzer/Lester type, I can handle that, especially with what Hendricks and Wada have given us. AND we could replace Edwards with a top 10 pick in June.

If the Marlins pushed for more, (like Schwarber + the other 3) that's when I pull the plug and just let the chips fall where they may.

 

[proshares]

Agreed.

Which is why I think he may end up in Boston at the end of the day. Cubs are not going to sell the farm for him and while Boston won't, they'll send their top catcher probably Owens and toss in Cespedes who they will probably love.

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

I'm all for moving Baez/Almora+arm (although I hate to see CJ go). But I would be hesitant to part with 3 bats + arm.....like if they wanted to add Russell or Schwarber, then I say no deal.

The thing is a proven talent like Stanton could potentially change everything. You don't get players like that everyday. Hopefully Baez finds his groove and starts working the counts a lil better and raises his stock, then that would make the offer sweater for the Marlins.

I believe Scherzer or Stanton should be our priorities this offseason, with Lester coming in as a consolation price if we miss out on the other two.

 

[proshares]

What are you doing to me, Jake?

 

[sportsjunkie]

What are you doing to me, Jake?

Jake had a bad outing on yesterday. i'm sure he will bounce back though.

 

[CP1708]

Soler #2.