Los Angeles
formerly bright nikes
- Apr 11, 2004
- 23,294
- 5,004
OH LAWD LOL
Official 2018 Los Angeles Dodgers Thread : Game 4
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by cincoseisdos,
- Start date
- Status
- Nov 25, 2017
- 4,091
- 4,710
ohtani effect 
- Jan 18, 2006
- 40,636
- 45,637
- Dec 19, 2013
- 17,360
- 24,451
Yall better start learning Japanese 
- Jan 18, 2006
- 40,636
- 45,637
Kersh gotta be gone right...
- Sep 1, 2008
- 15,258
- 4,641
Omgomgomgomgomgomg
- Feb 23, 2010
- 23,520
- 26,678
IMO still need a 4th or 5th starter, so far that’s 3 and one of Yarbrough/Sheehan/Grove/Stone. Rather have a lefty round out the rotation.
- Apr 2, 2014
- 11,915
- 26,425
My girl just told me the news and I just screamed and no s*** pumped my fist so hard I think I pulled a rib 
- Jan 18, 2006
- 40,636
- 45,637
I mean I hope he comes back or retires but his comments made it seem like the Ohtani thing was too much...I could be reading too much into it though.
Rockabilly Zombie
formerly sithlord22
- Sep 30, 2003
- 2,114
- 2,133
Let’s gooo! Gonna pop in to the mlb thread and see what’s happening in there
- Apr 2, 2014
- 11,915
- 26,425
MERRY CHRISTMAS NT DODGERS FAM!!!!
- Feb 23, 2010
- 23,520
- 26,678
My girl just told me the news and I just screamed and no s*** pumped my fist so hard I think I pulled a rib
Moments That Made You Realize You’re Washed
Tried to dunk a couple weeks ago and got hung. Had no clue what Fortnite was until Drake played with a kid who apparently makes over 500k a month on Twitch. Went out with the homie Saturday and before we get into the spot this girl in the parking lot shoots her shot. After talking for a...
niketalk.com
- Dec 19, 2013
- 17,360
- 24,451
Baseball subreddit is saltier than the Dead SeaLet’s gooo! Gonna pop in to the mlb thread and see what’s happening in there
- Nov 25, 2017
- 4,091
- 4,710
I too want Kershaw to comeback.
leave on a high note. hopefully a champ.
I don't think Buehler is ready to start the season I believe
leave on a high note. hopefully a champ.
I don't think Buehler is ready to start the season I believe
- Jan 18, 2006
- 40,636
- 45,637
I think Walker is good, May is the one who won't be ready to start the year.
- Oct 25, 2006
- 12,179
- 13,339
Kersh would be the worst pitcher in the rotation, and still more than serviceable.
- Dec 19, 2013
- 17,360
- 24,451
Kersh was lights out last season until he blew out his shoulder. That shoulder might be cooked for good though 
- Dec 19, 2013
- 17,360
- 24,451
I hope Ohtani and Yama are courtside for the XMas game….
To watch the Show lose by 25
To watch the Show lose by 25
- Feb 23, 2010
- 23,520
- 26,678
no DHGate for me, gotta do my part for these big money contracts
- Sep 17, 2013
- 7,521
- 5,156
We are big back boys!!!
- Jan 18, 2006
- 40,636
- 45,637
The pressure next year....
- Feb 5, 2013
- 39,637
- 41,464
Definitely fear he’s Texas bound
- Feb 23, 2010
- 23,520
- 26,678
A new super team in LA?! Yamamoto joins Dodgers in record deal
The Dodgers dropped the biggest starting pitching contract ever on a player who's never thrown an MLB pitch. What's the verdict on the deal?
Until today, Gerrit Cole's contract -- a nine-year, $324 million deal -- was the richest ever given to a pitcher in terms of total value. Has that deal been worth it for the New York Yankees? So far, absolutely. He's been outstanding in each of his four seasons for New York, and last season, he won his first-ever Cy Young Award. It's mind-boggling to call that much money an efficient expenditure for any team, even one in a big market, but so far for the Yankees, it has been.
The contract that the Dodgers agreed to with Japanese phenom Yoshinobu Yamamoto -- 12 years, $325 million -- now eclipses Cole's pact on the all-time pitching contract leaderboard by a measly million dollars -- and those figures don't include the $50.6 million posting fee the Dodgers will pay for handing out this deal. In the end, the Dodgers just made the biggest splurge a team has ever made on a pitcher (at least one who isn't also a 40-homer hitter, like Yamamoto's new teammate, Shohei Ohtani). They did this for a 5-foot-10, 176-pound, 25-year-old righty who has never thrown an inning in the major leagues.
Stretched over 12 years, Yamamoto's $27.1 million average annual value is less than Cole's $36 million, and ranks behind other star hurlers like Justin Verlander, Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer. Still, you can look at Cole as the standard. All Yamamoto has to do is produce like Cole and the Dodgers will come out well ahead on this deal -- and as you'll see by the grade on this transaction below, there are lots of reasons to believe that L.A. just landed a hurler with an All-Star-level probability and the upside of a generational player.
So far, though, it's all hypothetical -- and of course, that's where things might get complicated.
Yamamoto has been referred to as perhaps the greatest pitcher ever in the NPB. His numbers in Japan, compiled over a seven-year career that started when he was 18, are the stuff of a poorly programmed video game. He went 75-30 for the Orix Buffaloes with 1.72 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 9.2 strikeouts per nine innings during that time. And he kept getting better: Last season, he went 16-6, giving him five more wins than any other pitcher in the circuit, with a Gibson-esque 1.21 ERA. Over 164 innings, he allowed two home runs. Two. Homer rates are a lot lower in the Japanese Pacific League than in MLB, but that's still a ridiculous number.
There are plenty of detailed scouting reports out there that break down Yamamoto's arsenal, but the basics: The foundation of his six-pitch repertoire is a four-seamer/splitter combo that should have little trouble translating to the majors. Think of standouts like Ohtani and Kevin Gausman. His curveball drops off a table -- it's a thing of beauty to behold. And if you want to look for areas of further improvement, some scouting reports suggest his cutter and slider have the potential to get better. All of these offerings come alongside elite command, a description that might not do justice to the precision with which Yamamoto delivers his offerings.
So what does all of this mean for his time in MLB? First, let's consider a consensus approach for his rookie season, using stat-based projections from three systems -- Clay Davenport, Steamer and ZIPS -- that deploy various approaches to translating his NPB performance.
In this composite, Yamamoto ranks in the top quartile of starting pitchers across the board, based on where those numbers would have fallen among the 127 pitchers in 2023 that threw at least 100 innings. The ERA puts him right on par with new Dodgers starter Tyler Glasnow, just acquired a few days ago. Yet these median projections might very well be conservative, as they are built on league adjustments and the track records of other pitchers who have made the jump, but were not as good -- or as young -- as Yamamoto.
Let's break some rules and consider a translation based on the comp of one player: Kodai Senga, who made such a move from Japan and put up a fine rookie season for the Mets (Senga is about five years older). This is decidedly not the way to do a projection, especially because Dodger Stadium plays very differently than Citi Field, especially as a home run park. But let's do it anyway.
Senga and Yamamoto both pitched in the Japanese Pacific League as recently as 2022 -- and Yamamoto was better. In his last season in Japan, Senga posted a 1.89 ERA, then a 2.89 mark in his first season for the Mets. As you'd expect, all of his numbers rose a bit -- his WHIP climbed by 18 percent, his walks went up 40 percent, his homer rate more than doubled. He also struck out a higher rate of batters (which tells you something about the different style of play in Japan) -- all in all, his performance held up very well. Now let's apply the percentage changes that Senga saw in each of the main pitching categories to Yamamoto's 2023 line for Orix.
That's frightening. It's likely improbable as well, but if you imagine his real landing spot as somewhere between the consensus and Senga projections, you're looking at one whale of a rookie pitcher.
Obviously, the Dodgers, having just doled out an 12-year pact, are interested in much more than a rookie season. As a pitcher, Yamamoto is subject to all sorts of potential future misfortune, but there are a number of markers in his favor. He's young, first of all, having just turned 25 in August, and has a mostly clean injury history. He's an outstanding athlete, with the exceptional mechanics of a perfectionist, and practices a physical routine that is sure to be the subject of numerous profiles over the year ahead.
Some naysayers like to point at Yamamoto's size as a potential pitfall; defenders will mention Pedro Martinez and Roy Oswalt as proof that undersized hurlers can produce big results. His four-seamer sits at 95-96 MPH and he can rev it up into the high 90s at times. It comes from a three-quarters arm slot so, combined with his 5-10 height, he's got an unusually low release point. By all accounts, that fastball has exceptional ride through the zone, giving him an explosive, rising look that hitters don't often see.
That's how you end up with a home run rate so low it almost doesn't exist. Let's average the two projections we laid out above and say Yamamoto ends up with a rate of 0.37 homers allowed per nine innings next season. In 2023, that figure would have led the majors. Just behind him would have been Sonny Gray (0.39) and Marcus Stroman (0.59), who were one-two in this category last season (minimum 100 innings). They also both happen to be under six-foot tall.
The bottom line is there is no such thing as a mega-contract without risk, certainly not for a pitcher. But the Dodgers are just the kind of franchise who can afford to take on this kind of risk. The union of Yamamoto, Ohtani, the Dodgers, and the Los Angeles and Japanese fan bases has the potential to be an all-timer. When you think of the Dodgers, you think blue -- but their future is going to be generating a whole lot of green.
They also have the perfect infrastructure in place to satisfy Yamamoto's apparent penchant for constant self improvement. One example: Despite all the success he enjoyed during the first six seasons of his career, last season Yamamoto got rid of the leg kick he'd long used during his delivery, in part to make him more apt to control the running game. That's a pretty fundamental adjustment for someone who had performed so well for so long -- and he went out and had his best season. Now he will get immersed in the Dodgers' system of pitch optimization. It really does feel like a marriage made in baseball heaven. Well, at least for the portion of it that roots for the Dodgers.
The Dodgers are constructing a monster of a roster, though they still need to build out additional rotation depth, especially in lieu of last year's injury epidemic to that position group. And this being baseball and a 14-team postseason tournament being what it is, they are still guaranteed nothing in terms of a World Series trophy. But in landing the top two free agents on the board, they have established themselves as a strong favorite to win it all -- not just next season, but for the foreseeable future.
Superstar players are hard to come by. In Ohtani and Yamamoto, the Dodgers added two players who are of that ilk (or at least potentially in Yamamoto's case) -- and also made sure that none of the other big spenders in the sport acquired them. All of the biggest teams in baseball were in on Yamamoto, which as much as anything validates this investment. Thus, Dodgers Inc. grows ever stronger -- a dynasty more than a decade old that shows no signs of crumbling any time soon, if ever.
The contract that the Dodgers agreed to with Japanese phenom Yoshinobu Yamamoto -- 12 years, $325 million -- now eclipses Cole's pact on the all-time pitching contract leaderboard by a measly million dollars -- and those figures don't include the $50.6 million posting fee the Dodgers will pay for handing out this deal. In the end, the Dodgers just made the biggest splurge a team has ever made on a pitcher (at least one who isn't also a 40-homer hitter, like Yamamoto's new teammate, Shohei Ohtani). They did this for a 5-foot-10, 176-pound, 25-year-old righty who has never thrown an inning in the major leagues.
Stretched over 12 years, Yamamoto's $27.1 million average annual value is less than Cole's $36 million, and ranks behind other star hurlers like Justin Verlander, Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer. Still, you can look at Cole as the standard. All Yamamoto has to do is produce like Cole and the Dodgers will come out well ahead on this deal -- and as you'll see by the grade on this transaction below, there are lots of reasons to believe that L.A. just landed a hurler with an All-Star-level probability and the upside of a generational player.
So far, though, it's all hypothetical -- and of course, that's where things might get complicated.
Yamamoto has been referred to as perhaps the greatest pitcher ever in the NPB. His numbers in Japan, compiled over a seven-year career that started when he was 18, are the stuff of a poorly programmed video game. He went 75-30 for the Orix Buffaloes with 1.72 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 9.2 strikeouts per nine innings during that time. And he kept getting better: Last season, he went 16-6, giving him five more wins than any other pitcher in the circuit, with a Gibson-esque 1.21 ERA. Over 164 innings, he allowed two home runs. Two. Homer rates are a lot lower in the Japanese Pacific League than in MLB, but that's still a ridiculous number.
There are plenty of detailed scouting reports out there that break down Yamamoto's arsenal, but the basics: The foundation of his six-pitch repertoire is a four-seamer/splitter combo that should have little trouble translating to the majors. Think of standouts like Ohtani and Kevin Gausman. His curveball drops off a table -- it's a thing of beauty to behold. And if you want to look for areas of further improvement, some scouting reports suggest his cutter and slider have the potential to get better. All of these offerings come alongside elite command, a description that might not do justice to the precision with which Yamamoto delivers his offerings.
So what does all of this mean for his time in MLB? First, let's consider a consensus approach for his rookie season, using stat-based projections from three systems -- Clay Davenport, Steamer and ZIPS -- that deploy various approaches to translating his NPB performance.
In this composite, Yamamoto ranks in the top quartile of starting pitchers across the board, based on where those numbers would have fallen among the 127 pitchers in 2023 that threw at least 100 innings. The ERA puts him right on par with new Dodgers starter Tyler Glasnow, just acquired a few days ago. Yet these median projections might very well be conservative, as they are built on league adjustments and the track records of other pitchers who have made the jump, but were not as good -- or as young -- as Yamamoto.
Let's break some rules and consider a translation based on the comp of one player: Kodai Senga, who made such a move from Japan and put up a fine rookie season for the Mets (Senga is about five years older). This is decidedly not the way to do a projection, especially because Dodger Stadium plays very differently than Citi Field, especially as a home run park. But let's do it anyway.
Senga and Yamamoto both pitched in the Japanese Pacific League as recently as 2022 -- and Yamamoto was better. In his last season in Japan, Senga posted a 1.89 ERA, then a 2.89 mark in his first season for the Mets. As you'd expect, all of his numbers rose a bit -- his WHIP climbed by 18 percent, his walks went up 40 percent, his homer rate more than doubled. He also struck out a higher rate of batters (which tells you something about the different style of play in Japan) -- all in all, his performance held up very well. Now let's apply the percentage changes that Senga saw in each of the main pitching categories to Yamamoto's 2023 line for Orix.
That's frightening. It's likely improbable as well, but if you imagine his real landing spot as somewhere between the consensus and Senga projections, you're looking at one whale of a rookie pitcher.
Obviously, the Dodgers, having just doled out an 12-year pact, are interested in much more than a rookie season. As a pitcher, Yamamoto is subject to all sorts of potential future misfortune, but there are a number of markers in his favor. He's young, first of all, having just turned 25 in August, and has a mostly clean injury history. He's an outstanding athlete, with the exceptional mechanics of a perfectionist, and practices a physical routine that is sure to be the subject of numerous profiles over the year ahead.
Some naysayers like to point at Yamamoto's size as a potential pitfall; defenders will mention Pedro Martinez and Roy Oswalt as proof that undersized hurlers can produce big results. His four-seamer sits at 95-96 MPH and he can rev it up into the high 90s at times. It comes from a three-quarters arm slot so, combined with his 5-10 height, he's got an unusually low release point. By all accounts, that fastball has exceptional ride through the zone, giving him an explosive, rising look that hitters don't often see.
That's how you end up with a home run rate so low it almost doesn't exist. Let's average the two projections we laid out above and say Yamamoto ends up with a rate of 0.37 homers allowed per nine innings next season. In 2023, that figure would have led the majors. Just behind him would have been Sonny Gray (0.39) and Marcus Stroman (0.59), who were one-two in this category last season (minimum 100 innings). They also both happen to be under six-foot tall.
The bottom line is there is no such thing as a mega-contract without risk, certainly not for a pitcher. But the Dodgers are just the kind of franchise who can afford to take on this kind of risk. The union of Yamamoto, Ohtani, the Dodgers, and the Los Angeles and Japanese fan bases has the potential to be an all-timer. When you think of the Dodgers, you think blue -- but their future is going to be generating a whole lot of green.
They also have the perfect infrastructure in place to satisfy Yamamoto's apparent penchant for constant self improvement. One example: Despite all the success he enjoyed during the first six seasons of his career, last season Yamamoto got rid of the leg kick he'd long used during his delivery, in part to make him more apt to control the running game. That's a pretty fundamental adjustment for someone who had performed so well for so long -- and he went out and had his best season. Now he will get immersed in the Dodgers' system of pitch optimization. It really does feel like a marriage made in baseball heaven. Well, at least for the portion of it that roots for the Dodgers.
The Dodgers are constructing a monster of a roster, though they still need to build out additional rotation depth, especially in lieu of last year's injury epidemic to that position group. And this being baseball and a 14-team postseason tournament being what it is, they are still guaranteed nothing in terms of a World Series trophy. But in landing the top two free agents on the board, they have established themselves as a strong favorite to win it all -- not just next season, but for the foreseeable future.
Superstar players are hard to come by. In Ohtani and Yamamoto, the Dodgers added two players who are of that ilk (or at least potentially in Yamamoto's case) -- and also made sure that none of the other big spenders in the sport acquired them. All of the biggest teams in baseball were in on Yamamoto, which as much as anything validates this investment. Thus, Dodgers Inc. grows ever stronger -- a dynasty more than a decade old that shows no signs of crumbling any time soon, if ever.
Grade: A
- Dec 15, 2022
- 1,125
- 1,333
Love Kersh but at this point I’m lowkey like Clayton Who? Lol
- Dec 15, 2022
- 1,125
- 1,333
We should bring in Marcus Stroman too
- Status
