The
New Jersey Nets have pulled out of the
Carmelo Anthony sweepstakes -- we think -- and so the big question is where do the
Denver Nuggets go from here? What options are realistic for the Nuggets, and which ones don't make sense?
I've been pelted with questions and trade proposals from readers, via Twitter and in Thursday's chat, and so it's a good time to walk through the Nuggets' options and figure out what works and what doesn't.
Let's start at the top: The deal with the Nets is still Plan A. The Nuggets would have to get a waffle-free commitment from Anthony that he would sign the extension before proceeding, obviously, because the Nets don't seem interested in playing along otherwise. But Denver had lined up what was basically a basketball version of the Herschel Walker trade, which would have jump-started their rebuilding process.
If that option is permanently off the table -- my colleague Chad Ford
speculates it may not be -- the Nuggets' other options don't seem nearly as strong.
Here's what they're looking at:
[h3]Plan B: Trade him to New York[/h3]
The obvious incentive for a trade to the
New York Knicks is that Anthony will agree to sign an extension with New York, eliminating one of the biggest barriers to a trade. Our
Royce Webb has outlined some good reasons the Knicks may not want to jump in with both feet on this one, but from the Nuggets' perspective a deal with New York makes some sense if they can get the right mix of assets in the deal.
Anything with the Knicks would presumable center on
Danilo Gallinari,
Landry Fields, and either
Anthony Randolph or a first-round pick (exchanged from a third team for Randolph).
Eddy Curry's expiring contract would provide the salary ballast.
Bill Walker would likely be in the mix, too, since he's a young player who isn't getting much run in New York.
I would argue a better way for the Nuggets to go would be to dump more salary into the deal and be willing to take on fewer young players. If they did
this deal, for instance, with Randolph headed to a third team in return for a first-round pick, they'd save nearly $11 million in salary and luxury tax, and the only difference is that they'd have
Wilson Chandler instead of the Gallinari-Fields combo. I'd argue that's a better deal for the Knicks, too, as Gallinari's floor spacing is more important to a Melo-
Amare Stoudemire core than Chandler's shot-creating ability.
Chandler will be a free agent after this season, which adds some risk for Denver, but since he's restricted they should be able to keep him at a decent price.
Nonetheless, in the big picture, all these scenarios represent a step backward for Denver, which is why the Nuggets were so unenthused about a New York deal in the first place. Whether it's Gallinari or Chandler that's the centerpiece, the Nuggets would be basically trading an All-Star small forward for a fairly good small forward and some prospects. Plus, there's another consideration here that I'll get into below.
[h3]Plan C: Trade him as a rental to Houston[/h3]
Here's the problem I have with any rental scenario: By definition, the price a team is willing to pay will have to be lower. The Nuggets have a couple of suitors interested in trading for Melo in the hope that he'll agree to extend with them after the season, but because of the risk that he'll leave, there's an understandable reluctance to mortgage their franchise's future for him.
Of all the scenarios, the best one could be an offer from the
Houston Rockets. The Rockets have two huge carrots -- an injury exception for
Yao Ming that can swallow the entirety of
Al Harrington's contract and Yao's own $17 million contract, which is covered by insurance.
Consider, for instance, a hypothetical trade such as
this one. The Rockets could get the Nuggets under the luxury tax by swallowing the rest of
Kenyon Martin's contract, and Denver would get three useful assets --
Chase Budinger, either
Patrick Patterson or
Jordan Hill (the trade works with either), and, ironically, a first-round pick from New York (either in 2011 or 2012).
If Houston is willing to go that far, the savings for Denver are massive. The Nuggets would get under the luxury tax and have all their problem contracts off the books in one stroke, plus insurance would pay the bulk of Yao's money. All told, we're looking at a total north of $20 million, depending on the timing of the trade.
Would Houston do this? I doubt it. The Rockets can part with the prospects because they're so deep, but the money side is another story. As much as it saves Denver, that's what it costs Houston in salary, luxury tax, and foregone insurance dough from the Yao contract.
A more likely alternative would be to do the same deal without Martin in it, which would still save Denver some money but would have the same essential problem as the New York deal -- it would be a massive downgrade at small forward in return for some decent prospects. Without the prospect of dumping a bunch of money on Houston, New York's potential deal looks slightly better. And neither looks all that enticing.
[h3]Plan D: Trade him as a rental to Dallas[/h3]
The
Dallas Mavericks are the other team with the interest and the wampum to get something done. The problem is that they can't offer much in terms of either savings or prospects. The Mavs trade would likely include the expiring contracts of
Caron Butler and
DeShawn Stevenson, along with prospects
Rodrigue Beaubois and
Dominique Jones and a 2011 first-rounder.
Dallas could also absorb Harrington into such a trade -- the Mavs showed interest in him this summer -- and take
Renaldo Balkman into a trade exception they have left over from the
Tyson Chandler trade with Charlotte. In total, the Mavs can offer reasonable cap savings and a couple of prospects in a trade
such as this one.
On the other hand, Denver is going to have a tough time selling a
Ty Lawson-Beaubois combo as its backcourt of the future, since both are so small and the other assets are unimpressive. Basically, this looks like a paler version of what New York or Houston can do.
[h3]Plan E: Call his bluff[/h3]
The more I think about it, the more it seems this is the best option left on the table for the Nuggets and the one they should pursue if the Nets' deal can't be revived and the Rockets aren't willing to take a major financial soaking.
That's right, I think Denver should keep Melo the rest of the season.
At first, it sounds incredibly risky, but run through the scenarios and it seems very manageable for the Nuggets.
For starters, Anthony's desired end game has two prongs: An extension for the maximum by June 30 and playing for the Knicks. If the Nuggets call his bluff, he can get one or the other, but not both. By doing so, the Nuggets basically gamble that he values the extension more than the relocation.
That's a risk, obviously, and there's a chance the Nuggets wake up on July 1 with their best player as an unrestricted free agent who can leave them without compensation.
However, a few other factors mitigate that risk to a major degree:
First, as Ford
pointed out in another recent piece, the Knicks don't have enough salary cap space to sign Anthony to a max contract, which means the door has been left wide open for the Nuggets to work out a sign-and-trade with New York in the offseason that brings back most of the same assets. In particular, the Knicks would have to renounce their rights to Wilson Chandler in any case, so it would make sense to put him into a sign-and-trade with the Nuggets.
Depending on what curveballs the new CBA gives us, including potentially a lower salary cap, the Knicks would also have to jettison another salary or two to fit Anthony into their cap, meaning the likes of
Toney Douglas, Randolph or whomever the Knicks take with their first-round pick this year could also end up in the deal. In other words, the deal ends up being largely similar to the one currently on the table.
We have to remember that Denver's cap situation going forward is very different from that of the
Cleveland Cavaliers and
Toronto Raptors a year ago. Even if the Knicks managed to clear enough cap room to sign Anthony outright and give Denver nothing in return, the Nuggets wouldn't be as crippled as the Cavs and Raptors were.
Cleveland and Toronto opted to walk away with huge trade exceptions that have proven to be of little value, largely because they couldn't create enough compensating cap space even with the star player gone. The Nuggets, in contrast, will have enough room to sign at least one max contract, even after they ink
Nene Hilario (the Nuggets'
other notable free agent) to a longer deal.
In other words, the Nuggets' worst-case scenario doesn't seem that bad. They could sign another big-dollar free agent -- say,
David West -- have cap room left over to fill in any gaps (with a renounced Wilson Chandler being another potential target) and end up with a reasonable facsimile of the second-tier Western playoff team they currently have.
Finally, there's a third reason that the risk might not be as great as it seems: The next collective bargaining agreement could bail them out of this situation entirely, by allowing a team to place a "franchise tag" on its best player to block his exit. With such a stipulation, the Anthony drama could abruptly end. Depending on the particulars of the rule, he might get his max extension in Denver, and it might be business as usual for the Nuggets.
One gets the impression the Nuggets aren't even considering Plan E, and in light of all the goodies the Nets were going to throw their way, perhaps Plan A really was the proper choice.
But if Plan A is gone, when I look at their current alternatives and when I compare them to the potential outcomes if they
don't trade Anthony, I just don't see how they make their situation better with any of the trade options left on the table.
Check.
That's my one-word analysis of
New Jersey Nets owner Mikhail Prokhorov's news conference on Wednesday.
The
Carmelo Anthony negotiations have been a high-stakes chess match for months. The Nets have been in the weakest negotiating position of the four main actors involved in this drama. On Wednesday, Prokhorov's decision to cancel trade talks dramatically strengthened the Nets' negotiation position by putting them on the attack and cornering the
Denver Nuggets' and Melo's "king."
Here's why.
The Nuggets have always been in a strong position. They own Anthony's rights and have the ultimate say where he goes, at least before the offseason, when he can become a free agent. Anthony has held a major advantage, as well -- he controls whether he signs an extension. Even the
New York Knicks have been positioned well -- GM Donnie Walsh has acted as if he is ambivalent about the whole affair. His position: Sure, the Knicks are interested in Carmelo, but only at their price; since the Knicks are clearly Melo's desired destination (according to multiple reports), why should they chase him?
But for the Nets? It was an ugly situation. The talks have been public, and everyone knew that Anthony was their top priority. Slowly but surely, New Jersey had been conceding asset after asset in the negotiation. Each time the Nets thought the deal was on the brink, the Nuggets came back asking for just a little more. Meanwhile Anthony remained coy about his own intentions and the Nets were left in the worst possible position -- they were offering up a ton of assets (probably too many) for a guy who acted like he didn't want to be there and might turn them down.
[h4]MORE ON MELODRAMA[/h4]
•
Stein: What's next for the Nuggets?
•
Ford: Why Nets talks aren't dead
•
Sheridan: Anthony Knicks' to lose?
•
TrueHoop: Why Knicks should wait
•
Melo not talking day after Nets news
•
Daily Dime: Melodrama roundtable
•
Nets walk away |
Prokhorov, GM
•
TrueHoop: Prokhorov drops hammer
•
MacMahon: Are Mavs in Melo hunt?
•
Trade Machine |
Rumor Central
As it stood before Prokhorov's news conference, the Nuggets and Anthony could wait until the last second -- the Feb. 24 trade deadline -- to make a decision. The Nets would always be there, they surmised.
We don't know if Prokhorov is a basketball genius or if he understands all the intricacies of the NBA or the collective bargaining agreement. But the Russian billionaire does know how to do one thing -- negotiate a deal. He's been doing it for years and the word before he came into the league was that he was ruthlessly successful at getting what he wanted.
With that in mind, I think he changed the game on Wednesday in a way that could actually help the Nets finally procure Anthony.
I know Prokhorov seemed to say clearly that the negotiations were over and the Nets were moving on. For the most part, the media seems to believe him. The Nets are pushing a narrative that Prokhorov was tired of the indefinite nature of the talks and believed New Jersey was giving up too much, and Prokhorov said as much on Wed. Prokhorov also believed the ongoing negotiations had become a distraction and wanted to spare his team from another month of the same.
Sources on Thursday said the Nets have been talking to other teams about alternative deals that don't include Melo -- strengthening the perception that they've given up. The Nets do have other opportunities, and they do seem willing to move on without Melo.
But just because the Nets are publicly and privately saying it's over doesn't mean it is. The very nature of negotiations, especially in the NBA, is that there is no deal until there's a deal.
My colleague Chris Sheridan is reporting that the Nuggets are acting as if they are moving on as well and spent Wednesday evening and Thursday morning contacting a host of other teams to see what other deals are available.
But the Nuggets have been doing that for months and here's what they've found -- no one has a better offer than the Nets. No one. So even if they put on a brave face and say, "Don't worry, there's plenty of interest in Melo," they know they just lost their best chance at a reasonable trade.
Carmelo is in a similar bind. His desire is to play in New York, or, if the Knicks don't come through, in Chicago. But neither the Knicks nor the Bulls are willing to gut their team to get him, especially now that their top competition for Anthony has just publicly pulled out of the bidding. If Walsh wasn't willing to give up
Landry Fields and if John Paxson wasn't willing to give up
Joakim Noah before, do you think they're willing to do so now?
If there's not a great trade for the Nuggets to make, Denver could very well decide to hang onto Anthony and negotiate a sign-and-trade this summer or hope that owners get a franchise player tag as part of the new collective bargaining agreement. Since Nuggets owner Stan Kroenke didn't really love the New Jersey offer, he's not likely to suddenly fall in love with players like the Bulls'
Luol Deng or the Knicks'
Wilson Chandler and
Danilo Gallinari.
Other teams like the
Dallas Mavericks and
Houston Rockets are interested in renting Carmelo and might offer the Nuggets something decent. But that doesn't help Anthony at all. Not only has he shown no desire to play there, but if a trade does happen he may feel forced to sign an extension wherever he's traded (to avoid the uncertainty of free agency) -- something Dallas owner Mark Cuban and Houston GM Daryl Morey, two very savvy NBA negotiators, know all too well.
I have yet to come across anyone in the league -- owners, GMs, player agents, players -- who thinks that Melo will turn down an extension just to be free to go take less money to play for the Knicks next season. That includes sources inside the Knicks. So if Melo is faced with losing perhaps $40 million-plus or signing with a team that isn't the Knicks, everyone I've spoken with believes he'll sign the extension.
Could they be wrong? Sure. Human beings are complicated. They don't always react to stress in rational or predictable ways. Melo could be so hurt by everything that happens that he gives up the cash just to make a point or to punish the Nuggets. It's possible. But I don't think it's likely. And neither do the Nets or Nuggets.
So all of this talk about the Nets calling the news conference because they found out Melo was refusing to sign with them is shortsighted. Melo himself has said he had agreed to meet with the Nets. Prokhorov could've had his meeting. But if he went, he'd be coming from the weakest possible negotiating position. So he called off the meeting, told the Nuggets and Anthony to take a hike and in so doing, gained the upper hand.
Now what happens if in two or three weeks the trade offers don't improve? What happens when the Nuggets tell Anthony they aren't trading him to the Knicks? What about when the pressure really starts to mount? Whom will Denver and Melo turn to?
New Jersey.
And then Prokhorov holds the cards. Denver, you want us to take
Al Harrington? Forget about it. You want two first-rounders? We're giving you one. Melo, do you want the full $65 million extension? Then let us know you want to take the Nets into a new era in Brooklyn.
And if Denver goes another direction or Melo declines to go to New Jersey, the Nets aren't any worse off than they already were. Meanwhile, they've finally taken control of their destiny and have the assets, going forward, to make a great deal.
So while some have called Prokhorov clumsy, clueless or incompetent, understand this: This is not a basketball deal any longer. This is Prokhorov and Kroenke, two businessmen, doing what they do best -- negotiating a deal. And Prokhorov just moved from a position of weakness to one of strength. Given all the woes the Nets have suffered for the past few years, that's something every Nets fan should feel good about. And who knows? It may finally be the thing that lands them the guy they wanted all along.
Pair two of the league’s top players LeBron James and Dwyane Wade on the court together and the all-world tandem is bound to win regardless of the supporting cast, right?
Wrong.
Because there’s a hidden truth behind this Heat team that should have Heat president Pat Riley and coach Erik Spoelstra hoping the latest injury bug doesn’t last long:
The Heat have been woefully overmatched when Wade and James play without Chris Bosh.
No, this isn’t just a knee-jerk overreaction to the Heat’s overtime loss to the Atlanta Hawks on Tuesday night when the Heat played their first game without their 5-time All-Star power forward. That ugly defeat is just the latest piece of the startling season-long trend. According to Elias Sports Bureau, Wade and James have played 153 minutes this season together sans Bosh and here are the results on the scoreboard:
Heat 298 – Opponents 332.
That’s right, opposing teams have outscored the Heat by 34 points this season when Miami features two of the league’s top players in the same lineup. Translated to the scale of a regulation game, the Heat are getting trounced by a average margin of about 11 points every 48 minutes (93-104). For a comparison, the 8-33 Cleveland Cavaliers are currently averaging a score of 94-105.
And this isn’t a normal power outage when the Big Three downsizes to a Big Two. Sub out Wade and the Heat have won by an average of 1.2 points every 48 minutes with James and Bosh on the floor. Remove James from the game and Miami has outscored opponents by 5.4 points every 48 minutes with the Wade and Bosh pairing.
But when Bosh has left the star wings to fend for themselves, his absence has sent the Heat into a spiral. Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said after Friday’s practice, he’s trying to find ways to get them going without Bosh. But as the numbers show, it hasn’t been an easy task.
“Chris [Bosh] has been our crutch,
