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NFL Draft Preview: Eyes on theCombine[/size][/h2][h5][size=-1]
10:00 PM PST on Sunday, February 15, 2009[/size][/h5][size=-1]
Evan Silva[/size]
On Wednesday, February 18, Indianapolis' Lucas Oil Stadium will host the NFL's annual Scouting Combine. Previously heldat the recently demolished RCA Dome, the event lasts six days and this year extended invites to
328 collegiates, including 45 underclassmen. Without pads, players will go throughdrills testing straight-line speed, raw strength, change of direction skills, intelligence, and physical fitness.
As is often the case this time of year, the debate at the top of the draft is whether a quarterback with "red flags" isworth the No. 1 choice.
Matt Ryan's 19senior-year interceptions at Boston College naturally led to questions about his decision making. Arguments against
Matthew Stafford include his 56.9 career completionrate and the
staggeringhistory of underclassman quarterback busts.
Stafford is expected to
bypass the Combine in favor of working out at the Bulldogs' March Pro Day. Ryan took the same approach last year and still went No. 3 to theFalcons. However, Ryan was projected to go first in numerous pre-draft projections and
Brady Quinn tumbled to No. 22 overall after sittingout the Senior Bowl and most of the 2007 Combine. All three quarterbacks are represented by agent Tom Condon. Only time will tell if Stafford's absenceresults in a draft-day plunge.
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Solidifying Second Place[/size]
After Stafford, three underclassmen fall in line as quarterback prospects two through four. USC's
Mark Sanchez, Kansas State's
Josh Freeman, and Ball State's
Nate Davis all boast impressive arm strength andmobility. Perhaps the most striking physical QB specimen since
JaMarcus Russell, the 6'6/250-pound Freeman could make a run at Sanchez to be the second QB taken.
Anyone who's seen Freeman play knows he has a cannon, and Davis won the distance throw in January's ESPN college all-starevent. Sanchez might be the finest on-the-run passing prospect since
Carson Palmer. Accuracy is the most vitalcharacteristic for a successful quarterback, but arm strength improves draft stock. Without bulky shoulder pads or knee braces, the Combine provides a levelplaying field to gauge pure throwing power. Some separation should be created between the next three quarterbacks this week.
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How Big Is Harvin, Really?[/size]
Like arm length for a tackle and hand size for a quarterback, height is always a key measurable for a wideout.
Percy Harvin will never be big, but he'llstruggle to go in the top 20 picks if he measures 5'9 on Wednesday. Florida is famous for exaggerating a player's size, and it's hard to imagineHarvin living up to his 5'11/195 college listing. It does help Harvin that weigh-ins are on the first day. He'll burn up the track later in the weekand leave a strong impression.
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A Weightier Issue[/size]
Some news broke last week regarding a pair of college defensive ends teams are looking at as 3-4 outside linebackers.
Everette Brown of Florida State and Penn State's
Aaron Maybin are both underclassmen with sizequestion marks.
Maybin, who graduated from high school weighing 220 and was listed at 6'4/236 by the Nittany Lions, plans to report at6'4/250 on February 18. The 20-year-old third-year sophomore will be put through cover drills at the Combine. On top of his Big Ten-best 12 sacks, Maybinflashed the ability to drop into a zone from a three-point stance last season. But will the added weight affect his agility? Whereas a good showing couldsecure Maybin a place in the top nine, he could fall into the 20s if he struggles.
A 21-year-old fourth-year junior, Brown was possibly the nation's most explosive defender in 2008. Using a
Dwight Freeney-esque spin move and scintillatingup-field speed, Brown was unblockable by single teams at Florida State. He led the ACC in sacks (13.5) and tackles for a loss (21.5). But it was revealed thatBrown played his final college game at 225 pounds after being listed as 6'4/252 by the Seminoles. Brown could be bumped down draft boards by teams thatemploy four-man fronts if he reports to the Combine under 240.
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Differing Opinions on Iowa's Greene[/size]
Early entrant tailback
Shonn Greene started only one season at Iowa, but showed starting-caliber NFL ability with 1,850 yards on 307 carries (6.0 average) and 20touchdowns as a junior. The 2008 Doak Walker Award winner is considered the best blocking back available, may be the draft's finest pure power runner, andpossesses
Marshawn Lynch-like tackle-breakingability. But opinions differ on the 5'11/235-pounder, who at 23 is a shade older than the usual underclassman.
The media's most recognized draft analysts -- ESPN's Mel Kiper and Todd McShay, and NFL Network's Mike Mayock --weighed in on Greene's draft stock in a conference call with beat reporters last week. Kiper mentioned Greene's inexperience as a pass catcher and saidhe won't be surprised if Greene falls to the middle rounds. Mayock is concerned with Greene's off-field history. He was rumored to balloon to 300pounds after being temporarily kicked out of school for bad grades in 2007. Running backs don't need Harvard degrees to explode through holes, but teamswill surely check Greene's Wonderlic score at the Combine.
From a physical standpoint, straight-line speed is Greene's biggest question mark. A forty time in the low 4.5s couldguarantee Greene a spot in round two. A 4.7, however, could put Greene on the
Tony Hunt career path.
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Much to Gain[/size]
Another prospect with speed concerns is North Carolina WR
Hakeem Nicks. The 6'1/215-pound split end playslike he's 6'4 and will stand out in the receivers' Gauntlet Drill as a pure hands catcher. Nicks never lets passes get into his body, snatchingthem out of the air with outstanding coordination. But he's rumored to run in the 4.6 range, and in a receiver-rich draft such a time would hurt. AfterCrabtree, Nicks is battling
Jeremy Maclin,
Darrius Heyward-Bey, and Harvin to be thesecond receiver off the board. Nicks' competitors will likely all run sub-4.4s.
Ohio State's
Malcolm Jenkins is the draft's consensus top cornerback, but some feel he's better suited for safety in the pros. Jenkins is a vicious,aggressive tackler, possesses safety size at 6'1/201, and has trouble with smaller speed receivers in coverage. If he runs a 4.4 flat at the Combine,however, teams will feel comfortable keeping Jenkins outside. Cornerback is the more valued position and Jenkins could solidify a place in the top eightpicks.
Like his older brother Vernon, consensus No. 2 corner
Vontae Davis of Illinois is a physical freak at6'0/204 and will likely run faster than Jenkins. Davis even has a fighter's chance to emerge as the first CB drafted if he performs well in positiondrills and his forty is significantly better.
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Under the Radar[/size]
Off-field problems and fumbling affected Texas A&M RB Mike Goodson's playing time early in his college career, anddominant short-yardage specialist Jorvorskie Lane vultured many of his potential touchdowns. As a junior in 2008, Goodson was given the full-time tailbackreigns with Lane converting to fullback, but the Aggies were terrible under new coach Mike Sherman and Goodson generated only 406 rushing yards. Still, theearly entrant offers plus size (6'0/220), receiving ability, and straight-away speed. Despite little fanfare as an Aggie, Goodson is a candidate to shootup draft boards with a dominant Combine.
Southern Mississippi "move" tight end
Shawn Nelson was the surprise star of January'sSenior Bowl, exhibiting willingness as a blocker, soft hands, and an impressive 6'5 frame. This draft lacks a clear-cut No. 2 tight end after OklahomaState's
Brandon Pettigrew, but Nelson isthe early frontrunner.
Jared Cook of SouthCarolina, who Gamecocks coach Steve Spurrier once compared to
Calvin Johnson, converted QB and onetime Florida basketball player
Cornelius Ingram, and versatile Rice H-back
James Casey are other tight ends to watch.
Brian Orakpo ofTexas is considered the draft's top defensive end, but many teams view the Nagurski Award winner as a 3-4 outside linebacker. Northern Illinois'
Larry English, Georgia Tech's
Michael Johnson, and the aforementioned Brown andMaybin fall into a similar category. There is no consensus top base 4-3 end. That's where Utah redshirt sophomore
Paul Kruger could come in. Listed at 6'5/265,Kruger was unstoppable in the Sugar Bowl against Alabama and already wears a borderline first-round grade. Kruger, who went on a two-year Mormon mission beforehis breakout 2008 campaign, could move into the top-20 range with a big week.
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Draft-Related News and Notes[/size]
Projections for the fastest forty times by skill position: QB -
Pat White (West Virginia); RB -
LeSean McCoy (Pitt); WR - Mike Thomas (Arizona); TE -
Cornelius Ingram (Florida)...Michigan StateRB
Javon Ringer's status for the Combineremains up in the air following arthroscopic knee surgery...Same goes for Florida deep threat receiver
Louis Murphy...As many as eight offensive linemencould
reportedly go in the first round.
The Bears are likely to use a day-one pick at offensive tackle following news that RT
John Tait plans to retire...At least
one draftnik agrees with Rotoworld interviewee
David Lewin that
Mark Sanchez is the best signal caller in thedraft...However, the
last underclassman QB tocome close to panning out was
Michael Vick in2001...Ohio State MLB
James Laurinaitis saysit would only take
a few weeks to bulk up to 255 pounds if he's drafted to playinside linebacker in a 3-4 scheme...Once an NFL factory, the Miami Hurricanes are projected to have
just oneplayer picked in April -- late-round CB prospect Bruce Johnson...Wondering which analyst to trust? An amazing 90 of Mike Mayock's top 100 playersheading into last year's draft
went in the real-life top100.
Evan Silva is a football editor for RotoWorld.com.
