NT: Sportsbook Thread

^yo thats exactly how I feel with Lebron and the Cavs tonight. Plus its only Charlotte, the Cavs are more than capable of taking this
 
last minute 4 pt. teaser

02/19/10 Cavaliers (Cleveland) -1
19:10 ET (-105)
02/19/10 Celtics (Boston) +7
22:40 ET (-105)
02/19/10 Mavericks (Dallas) +10.5
20:10 ET (-105)
02/19/10 Nuggets (Denver) -2
19:10 ET (-105)
02/19/10 Hornets (NewOrleans) -0.5
20:10 ET (-105)
02/19/10 Spurs (SanAntonio) +0.5
19:10 ET (-105)
 
^i put 5 on that 3 team parlay
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put together a 5-teamer and a 2-teamer real quick.


why are the Bulls -135 ML against the Wolves? the Wolves are tanking, hop on it!
 
Originally Posted by Mojodmonky1

Its a little early for a full UFC breakdown since the event is 2 days away, but F it.  I have already done some preliminary analysis and discussions with my partner about this card, and well... (my opinion) this is not a card that has a ton of value.

My strategy is actually a little bit different than doyoung's when it comes to MMA betting.  I welcome the big favorites as long as there is perceived value in the line.  For instance, if you have a fighter coming in at -400, that implies that he has a 80% chance at victory.  Therefore if you honestly believe that the fighter has no less than a 90% chance at victory, then you have a ton of value as 90% translates to a -900 line.  A situation like that would be a max bet (my bookie caps me at $500 per fight unless I specifically ask for an increase... which is granted on a case by case basis... sucks).  Now determining the "real" odds of a W or L is the fun/hard part.  Thats why I like having a partner to discuss and breakdown fights with so we can try to logically come up with a realistic % of whether or not Fighter A will win.  For me MMA is a big hobby of mine, so talkin shop and breakin down fights is a lot of fun, almost as fun as winning money, which is why I dont mind spending a lot of time doing it.  But on to the event.

goin off current 5dimes lines (one thing to note, MMA lines vary greatly by book so keep that in mind when determining/establishing whether or not there is value)

Cain Velasquez (-115) v. Nog (+105)

Supposedly Cain opened at +200 and steady money came in early at that line.  At +200 it was a steal for Cain.  Where the odds stand now, the line is about as even as it can be.  I think there is virtually no value in this line unless more money comes in on Cain pushing Nog to +120 range or so (but I just dont see that happening).  Personally, I have this fight capped around 55/45 in favor of Cain.  Cains path to victory is to mimic what Chael Sonnen did to Marquardt and ride Nog like a little pony.  If he can use his superior wrestling to score points with takedowns and avoid subs or sweeps from inside Nogs guard, I think he takes it no problem.  Frankly, I dont see Nog winning this fight by decision.  I think Nog has to finish Cain to take this one for the following reasons
- Cain is a dominant wrestler but his striking is not as crisp as Nogs.  If Nog punches him in the face a couple of times I full expect Cain to shoot for the takedown (and get it).  Takedowns are easy to spot and are typically heavily awarded by the judges.
- For better or worse, top position is also seen favorably by the judges.  Even if a fighter were to pull guard and purposely get on the bottom, the judges tend to side with whoever is on top.  With Cains takedowns and wrestling, I expect that he will spend the majority of the fight in top position (assuming they decide to hit the mat)
- I dont know if Australia has a governing sports commission that will oversee this event.  Assuming they do, I cant imagine that the judges will be well seasoned MMA judges.  Therefore the judges may not understand the nuances of MMA which typically means they judge based on what they see (takedowns, top position, striking).  Whereas a more saavy judge might award points for sub attempts and transitions to better positions, a newbie judge may not.
- Assuming they DONT have their own commission to oversee the event, the UFC will probably have to bring their own judges in like theyve done for some other international events.  Now I say this half jokingly (cause i want to believe that its not rigged in any way) but the UFC does not want Cain to lose.  He is their meal ticket, and has been marketed and setup to be their next champ (or atleast make a run at the championship).  As long as it isnt a complete blowout, I think UFC appointed judges may skew in Cains favor if it is a razor tight match to call.

Now whether or not Cain will attempt the takedown is the big question here.  Nogs jitsu is no joke and his submissions are some of the best in the division.  Personally, I think Cain and his camp is confident enough in his ability that they wont be too gunshy to take the fight to the ground.  Cains bread and butter is takedowns and ground and pound.  I think it would be a bad strategy to keep this standing and turn it into a kickboxing match.  Even though Nogs striking isnt as pretty and technical as say a BJ Penn, I think that his striking is still much tighter than Cains.  I guess if they keep it standing for 3 rounds, Nog could possibly outpoint him and take a decision, although I personally feel that this is very unlikely cause I figure that Cain will get tired of getting punched in the head eventually and switch it up and go for the takedown.  My partner is concnered about the submission attempts from Nog, but I dont know if its going to be as big a factor.  Granted we havent seen Cain take on any submission experts so he really hasnt shown anything on his sub defense, but I feel that Cain is a pretty smart fighter overall and should be able to avoid getting put in a bad spot, or will be able to use his brute strength to power out in the event that he does get caught.  Furthermore, this dudes got some heart and I dont think he will tap easily, and would rather be put to sleep than go out via tap.  The longer he can hold out (assuming he gets caught in a choke) the more opportunity he has to get out of that choke.

In conclusion, I think that Cain eeks out a victory as long as he sticks to a conservative gameplan utilizing his strengths.  He needs to pop that jab to establish range and then immediately go for the takedown.  Once on the ground he needs to score points with some GnP while being wary of sub attempts.  If Nog gets wrist control to attempt a sweep, Cain needs to immediately pull away and stand up, and repeat the process.  It may not be pretty but 3 rounds of takedown, GnP, standup, repeat is the way to victory for him.  That being said, Nog has more than a puncher/chokers chance at putting this away.  To call him an underdog here is almost doing him a disservice.  Nog is no dummy.  If he catches Cain like Kongo caught Cain, this fight is gonna be done.  Nog will not piss away an opportunity like that.  If he catches him with a clean strike on the feet and Cain wobbles, expect Nog to immediately take advantage and try to strike from a dominant position or slap on a choke.

My Play: UNDECIDED - leaning towards a small play (less than 1u) on Velasquez.  If Nog moves close to +120 (doubtful) I might switch and make that play instead.
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I know its bad form to quote your own prior posts but I wanted to have all my analysis in 1 place for anyone who chooses to read it and make their own bets.  My local bookie hasnt posted lines yet so my decisions and analysis will be based off of current 5dimes odds.  It is worth repeating that line shifts can affect the value and ultimate decision of what side to play.

Wanderlei Silva (-145) v. Michael Bisping (+125)

Its hard to peg Wandy as a favorite in light of his recent W/L record, but getting into the whole MMA Math game is a trap (Fighter A > Fighter B, B > C, therefore A > C).  Personally I think the odds here are pretty dead on.  Not much value at the current prices, so if you are going to make a play, chances are you will be betting with your heart, not because of any logical reasoning.  So even though Bisping is coming off a TKO victory, I wouldn't look too much into that TKO since Denis Kang has no heart and is a quitter.  Bisping has never exhibited KO power, and theres no reason to believe that he's gonna come in here and knock Wandy out.  Wandy on the other hand does have vicious power, even though he tends to throw them in the form of wild looping punches.  We cant overlook Wand's other striking tools, especially his devastating knees from the thai clinch.  Although Wand is a BJJ black belt, its been some time that we've seen him utilize his jits skills and go for a sub.  I fully expect this to be a standup battle for most if not all of the fight.  As much praise as I give to Wandy, by no means is this a walk in the park.  Although Bisping doesnt really have 1 punch KO power, his technical striking is sound.  If Bisping can pick his shots, cover up and counter well, there is a very good chance that he can outpoint Wandy for the decision.  Wandy makes no secret about wanting to put on a good show for the fans, and that probably means he is gonna come out swinging like a madman which could leave him open to take some shots.  Bisping's wrestling or lack thereof is not really an issue here, and I don't expect him to shoot for a takedown unless he's "rocked" and hanging on for dear life.

I see the possible outcomes being a Wand TKO/KO or a Bisping decision.  I dont think anyone is getting tapped out in this fight.  In interviews Wand has said that the cut to 185 was not an issue and he should be in good shape when he hits the octagon.  That is one of the biggest ? for me cause if Wand gasses in the later rounds due to the weight cut, Bisping can easily steal rounds 2 and 3 (or even just round 3, assuming he can outpoint Wand in round 1) and still win this fight.  What I hope for is Wand to come in fresh, in shape, and the same ultra aggressive quick striker that we saw from his Pride days.

UPDATE: I was just informed that one of Bisping's trainers said in an interview "We're going to go toe to toe with him. You can quote me on that." And Bisping said theyll bring the fight to Silva.


My Play: Originally didnt LOVE it, but assuming my book offers me similar lines it will probably be a 1u play on Wand.  $145 to win $100.  Based on this new info from Bispings trainer, I may have to scale up to atleast a 2u play.  Assuming they arent just talkin BS, I think Wand at -145 is a pretty solid play here.





Joe Stevenson (-230) v. George Sotiropolous (+210)

I'm not sold on George yet.  I feel he does everything decently well, but nothing great.  His BJJ is solid, but I dont know if I would consider it elite level.  I just dont see Joe Daddy getting subbed by George, atleast not from the bottom.  I think George will need to be on top so he can work for a dominant position like side control or mount in order to threaten with any reasonable submission attempts.  Joe's wrestling is superior to George, and I might even give the striking edge to Joe (even with his lack of range).  With the superior wrestling I think Joe will be able to put George on his back and hold him there as he delivers short elbows and body shots.  Can George win this fight?  Absolutely, he has slightly better than a punchers/chokers chance to do so.  He is fighting in front of a home crowd and is going to be amped up as hell.  While I downplayed his BJJ a little bit, it could still be a threat, especially if Joe is tired, gassed, or woozy from gettin caught with a nice punch/knee/kick/elbow.

Overall I think the line is where it is because George is a hometown kid and he has blown through everyone that the UFC has given him thus far.  Joe is definitely a step up in competition from the jokers he has fought in the past.  I think a lot of people dont give Joe the credit he is due.  His losses have come against only elite level 155ers.  (again, hate to refer to MMA math but I'm gonna do it) I think George is a similar fighter to Nate Diaz.  Good jitsu + decent standup but not a lot of KO power.  Look what Joe did to Nate.

My Play: 1u play on Stevenson @ those odds.  I like a 1u play up to around -250 range.  If it inches past that I would have to give a hard look at taking George and the odds.



Ryan Bader (-145) v. Keith Jardine (+135)

If you havent noticed by now, I am partial to dominant high caliber wrestlers.  Bader's wrestling pedigree is top notch but his striking seems rudimentary at best (see the Bader/Schafer fight for an example).  Even though the technique is not there, Bader does have heavy hands and if he catches you.... good night.  Ask Vinny Magalhaes how it feels to eat a Bader punch.  The big big ? for Bader is his cardio.  I ran into this dude at the craps tables in Vegas one time and dude is seriously built like a house.  The problem is, all those muscles need a ton of oxygen to keep em going, and Bader has shown to gas out fairly quickly.  I hope his cardio holds up, cause if this thing goes 3 rounds Jardine could easily take it.  Jardine it seems is a perennial underdog.  Everyone talks about his unorthodox striking which they say is hard to prepare for, and also his underrated takedown defense/ability to get up.  The other big thing people talk about is his glass chin.  If Bader even clips him with a grazing shot, Jardine is goin night night.  If Bader's gas tank wasnt an issue I would be all over this one, but that is such a big unknown that it has made me a bit more risk averse.   I dont think Jardine is much threat to pull of a submission victory here.  Jardines path to victory is to use his funky standup to dip and dodge, get Bader to punch himself out, and then pounce on a tired and gassed out Bader to either finish Bader with a flurry and get the W via TKO, or to pick and pop his way to a 3 round split decision.  I say split decision only cause I think Bader is gonna come out hot like fire in the 1st round and should take it if he can impose his will and take Jardine down.  If for whatever reason Bader cant get this fight to the mat... oh boy, he's in for a rought night.  I never want to underestimate Greg Jackson's gameplanning as he is one of the best in the business.  Jardine can be a real threat if he can keep this fight on the feet.  Bader couldnt even keep up with Schafer (pure jitsu guy) who is arguably one of the worst strikers in the division.  Jardines striking is light years ahead of either Schafer or Bader's, and dude does have some pop behind those punches and leg kicks.  If Jardine can keep the distance and punish Bader with low leg kicks, its gonna be hard for Bader to push off for his takedown shots.  If Bader loses his ability to shoot for the takedown, its Jardine's fight to lose.

My Pick: I was kinda all over the place with the analysis but I think it might be worth a small play on Jardine here.  If that line holds with my book, I will probably go $80 to win $108 or something along that line.  If Jardine scales up to +150 (lines been moving slightly in Baders favor) then its probably worth a full 1u play.


My fingers are getting tired so I will leave it at that for now.  If anyone cares to hear my analysis on any of the other fights, just ask and I will write it up.  The only other spot where I think there might be decent value is with Krystof Sosynski (-190) v. Stephan Bonnar (+165).  Bonnar is a bum plain and simple.




  
 
Originally Posted by JUS3

Originally Posted by NothingToL0se

this cant be good tonight...most of us are playing the same games...we'll either win big or lose just as big
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NT Sportsbook family rides together and dies together
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this is the sole thread on NT where everyone liking different teams will help. guys who put aside homerism and stuff coming together to make $$$
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if darmouth holds on then they = minnesota yesterday


messing w/ everybody money....hope Brown hold on for me though
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for those that care...here are my 2 NBA parlays for today

Nuggets -6
Spurs -3.5
Bucks -1
Jazz -5

and

Nuggets -5
Bulls vs Wolves (UNDER 205)
Atlanta +4
 
Some notes for the late night NBA bets..
Utah is 8-0-1 ATS their last 9 on the road, and 14-2-2 ATS their last 18 overall.

Golden State is 4-7 ATS their last 11 at home, 2 of those 4 wins over New Jersey & the Clippers.
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welp there goes my night
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hopefully my curling, and Mil/NO/Brown plays hold up
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Vegas is nasty... lines like the Spurs-Sixers (everybody was wondering why the hell they had the Spurs only -3.5) really show you who you're dealing with.

Originally Posted by venom lyrix

how the hell do the Wizards lead the Nuggets right now...how are the Wiz scoring...#+%
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word... i'm a Wiz fan and they even surprised me. i bet Wizards under 102 pts for this game.
if you think about it, the team is just straight scorers now... Howard, Thornton (didnt know he had it like that), Blatche, Miller, Foye (in a little slump lately), Nick Young, even Boykins. they should be scoring in the triple digits more often from now on.
 
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