Originally Posted by
doyung9
Originally Posted by sole searchin
UFC110 coming up on the 20th. I've been hearing how it's been good money betting on UFC and I remember someone posting about it. Care to share your feelings about this particular card to help us make some money?
Evened out today with ATL bailing me out. SMH at the 207 and Minn losing to Washington.
For tomorrow, I'm looking at a teaser with Syr, Pitt, Vandy, St. mary's, and Citadel
The trick to UFC is finding underdogs who really aren't underdogs.
It doesn't pay to bet on a -400, -550 favorite (like most of the "brand name" fighters tend to be) because something happens where a guy just can't get into rhythm or a fluke KO or something and you lose $100 to win $25, ya know?
Right now, I like Stephan Bonnar +160 and Keith Jardine +125. Bonnar is in a MUST-WIN situation, and the dude knows how to go for broke, and Jardine has such a difficult stand-up style to mimic in training, it's one of those things guys have to adapt to on the spot. Plus, they're both fighting guys with less than 3 fights in the UFC.
As for favorites, I'm on the fence about Wanderlei Silva -150, Chris Lytle -175, and Big Nog (even money)... I'll have to wait it out.
damn... went 0-3 last night. oh well, time to bounce back today.
Its a little early for a full UFC breakdown since the event is 2 days away, but F it. I have already done some preliminary analysis and discussions with my partner about this card, and well... (my opinion) this is not a card that has a ton of value.
My strategy is actually a little bit different than doyoung's when it comes to MMA betting. I welcome the big favorites as long as there is perceived value in the line. For instance, if you have a fighter coming in at -400, that implies that he has a 80% chance at victory. Therefore if you honestly believe that the fighter has no less than a 90% chance at victory, then you have a ton of value as 90% translates to a -900 line. A situation like that would be a max bet (my bookie caps me at $500 per fight unless I specifically ask for an increase... which is granted on a case by case basis... sucks). Now determining the "real" odds of a W or L is the fun/hard part. Thats why I like having a partner to discuss and breakdown fights with so we can try to logically come up with a realistic % of whether or not Fighter A will win. For me MMA is a big hobby of mine, so talkin shop and breakin down fights is a lot of fun, almost as fun as winning money, which is why I dont mind spending a lot of time doing it. But on to the event.
goin off current 5dimes lines (one thing to note, MMA lines vary greatly by book so keep that in mind when determining/establishing whether or not there is value)
Cain Velasquez (-125) v. Nog (+105)
Supposedly Cain opened at +200 and steady money came in early at that line. At +200 it was a steal for Cain. Where the odds stand now, the line is about as even as it can be. I think there is virtually no value in this line unless more money comes in on Cain pushing Nog to +120 range or so (but I just dont see that happening). Personally, I have this fight capped around 55/45 in favor of Cain. Cains path to victory is to mimic what Chael Sonnen did to Marquardt and ride Nog like a little pony. If he can use his superior wrestling to score points with takedowns and avoid subs or sweeps from inside Nogs guard, I think he takes it no problem. Frankly, I dont see Nog winning this fight by decision. I think Nog has to finish Cain to take this one for the following reasons
- Cain is a dominant wrestler but his striking is not as crisp as Nogs. If Nog punches him in the face a couple of times I full expect Cain to shoot for the takedown (and get it). Takedowns are easy to spot and are typically heavily awarded by the judges.
- For better or worse, top position is also seen favorably by the judges. Even if a fighter were to pull guard and purposely get on the bottom, the judges tend to side with whoever is on top. With Cains takedowns and wrestling, I expect that he will spend the majority of the fight in top position (assuming they decide to hit the mat)
- I dont know if Australia has a governing sports commission that will oversee this event. Assuming they do, I cant imagine that the judges will be well seasoned MMA judges. Therefore the judges may not understand the nuances of MMA which typically means they judge based on what they see (takedowns, top position, striking). Whereas a more saavy judge might award points for sub attempts and transitions to better positions, a newbie judge may not.
- Assuming they DONT have their own commission to oversee the event, the UFC will probably have to bring their own judges in like theyve done for some other international events. Now I say this half jokingly (cause i want to believe that its not rigged in any way) but the UFC does not want Cain to lose. He is their meal ticket, and has been marketed and setup to be their next champ (or atleast make a run at the championship). As long as it isnt a complete blowout, I think UFC appointed judges may skew in Cains favor if it is a razor tight match to call.
Now whether or not Cain will attempt the takedown is the big question here. Nogs jitsu is no joke and his submissions are some of the best in the division. Personally, I think Cain and his camp is confident enough in his ability that they wont be too gunshy to take the fight to the ground. Cains bread and butter is takedowns and ground and pound. I think it would be a bad strategy to keep this standing and turn it into a kickboxing match. Even though Nogs striking isnt as pretty and technical as say a BJ Penn, I think that his striking is still much tighter than Cains. I guess if they keep it standing for 3 rounds, Nog could possibly outpoint him and take a decision, although I personally feel that this is very unlikely cause I figure that Cain will get tired of getting punched in the head eventually and switch it up and go for the takedown. My partner is concnered about the submission attempts from Nog, but I dont know if its going to be as big a factor. Granted we havent seen Cain take on any submission experts so he really hasnt shown anything on his sub defense, but I feel that Cain is a pretty smart fighter overall and should be able to avoid getting put in a bad spot, or will be able to use his brute strength to power out in the event that he does get caught. Furthermore, this dudes got some heart and I dont think he will tap easily, and would rather be put to sleep than go out via tap. The longer he can hold out (assuming he gets caught in a choke) the more opportunity he has to get out of that choke.
In conclusion, I think that Cain eeks out a victory as long as he sticks to a conservative gameplan utilizing his strengths. He needs to pop that jab to establish range and then immediately go for the takedown. Once on the ground he needs to score points with some GnP while being wary of sub attempts. If Nog gets wrist control to attempt a sweep, Cain needs to immediately pull away and stand up, and repeat the process. It may not be pretty but 3 rounds of takedown, GnP, standup, repeat is the way to victory for him. That being said, Nog has more than a puncher/chokers chance at putting this away. To call him an underdog here is almost doing him a disservice. Nog is no dummy. If he catches Cain like Kongo caught Cain, this fight is gonna be done. Nog will not piss away an opportunity like that. If he catches him with a clean strike on the feet and Cain wobbles, expect Nog to immediately take advantage and try to strike from a dominant position or slap on a choke.
My bet: still undecided but I will probably make a small play on Cain only cause I'm a degen and bet on more fights than I should. There is very little (to no) value here, so unless you see the fight completely differently than I do, it may be wise to sit this fight out.
** just had some work dropped on my desk so I will have to give my breakdown of the other fights later in the day.
