***$$$-NT Sportsbook Thread vol.2- Props props props props props props... EVERYBODY!

I’m Taking Tyreke Hill to score a TD at any point in the game @ +105.

And did a little teaser for today as well. I’m on the chiefs / niners / over in SF/GB & under 58.5 in KC/TEN
 
Record: 9-4
Units: +18.8

Today's Play:
Heat ML 5u

Herro's questionable as of right now, but that shouldn't stop a Miami team that is second in the league in 3P% at 37.8%. Over their last 3 games the Heat have shot 40.5% from 3 with 2 of those games on the road and one of those road games being in OKC who rank 5th in opponent 3P% at 31.7% per game and the Heat still shot the 3 at 38.9%. The other game was at home against the Spurs where they shot 42.5% from beyond the arc. The Spurs on the other hand shoot 36.5% from 3, good for 7th in the league, but have shot a paltry 26.6% over their last 3, 30% when these two teams last met. Now both teams allow a lot of 3PT attempts (both rank in the bottom 5) but the Sours don't really take a lot of 3s (3rd least) while Miami sits in the middle of the league at 14th most attempted. I say all this to say that 3PT shooting is an area where Miami can really jump on the Spurs.

Miami's turnovers do concern me (4th most in the league) especially since the Spurs take care of the ball (top 5 least turnovers per game) BUT Spurs are near the bottom of the league in steals and Miami has taken care of the ball much better over their last 3 and committing just 10 turnovers against the Spurs a couple games ago.

Couple all of this with the fact that Miami is tops in the league in winning close games while the Spurs are middle of the pack and I've gotta take the Heat here.

Fading NFL today. BOL everyone!
 
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-Aaron Rodgers O12.5 yards rushing
-Derrick Henry O22.5 carries
-Niners -7.5
-Mahomes O2.5 passing TDs
-Chiefs/Titans O52
 
Wanna play Heat too. Feel like they’re deeper than Spurs even without Hero’s offense. DeRozan has been cooking lately tho, but hasn’t translated to wins.
 
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Chiefs -0.5 1st Quarter
King Henry over 114.5 rush yds
King Henry over 9.5 rec yds
 
My whole analysis centered around the 3PT advantage that Miami had. Miami was trending up last 3 games, Spurs trending down. And it completely flips: Heat shot under 30% which is mind boggling considering they’ve shot 42% the last three games including the last meeting with the Spurs.

Turns out the 3PT game was the difference: for the Spurs. Oh, the irony.
 
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