**NBA FINALS THREAD - RAPTORS DEFY GRAVITY**

[everysingletime]

By eye test, not looking at the scoreboard... It kinda looked like refs called it kinda tight. A loosely called game would favor raptors I think.

I think there was a stretch of 6-7 possessions bucks went to the free throw line

 

[niceshoes247]

Marc gasol game didn't age gracefully at all. He out here looking like some boot cuts

So u saying they coming back?

 

[moe200069]

Raptors +7 tonight, so Bucks are -7.

Raps win outright or lose by less than 7, they cover the spread.
If the margin is 7, it's a push (refund).
If they lose by more than 7, they don't cover the spread

Score was 108-100 Bucks.

Bucks covered, they won by 8, which is more than their "-7" spread. Vice-versa for the Raptors, they lost by 8, which is more than their "+7" spread.

You would win if you bet on the Bucks -7 tonight and lost if you bet on the Raptors +7.

the conspiracy theorist in me finds it so damn hard to believe that vegas doesn't impact outcomes of games. vegas sets the line to raptors +7 in what is supposed to be a TIGHT finish so i'm sure the money is pouring in on the raptors covering. they end up losing by 8 after danny green misses a FT

 

[abubakr shaheed]

Marc gasol game didn't age gracefully at all. He out here looking like some boot cuts

the funniest slander I’ve heard all week

Didn’t understand raptors going after him. Much rather have JV and Delon Wright

 

[lightweight champion]

the conspiracy theorist in me finds it so damn hard to believe that vegas doesn't impact outcomes of games. vegas sets the line to raptors +7 in what is supposed to be a TIGHT finish so i'm sure the money is pouring in on the raptors covering. they end up losing by 8 after danny green misses a FT

The spread on close games many times will come down to FTs. I read a few years ago some guy made a killing for years off betting the over for 2nd halves using this logic.

 

[QU!K]

the funniest slander I’ve heard all week

Didn’t understand raptors going after him. Much rather have JV and Delon Wright

Masai was going all in. If he didn’t make any moves during the deadline his seat would be hot af. JV was coming back from a broken finger by Draymond. I hate draymond

He traded offence for defense.

 

[gaiiige]

Giannis on some @shotsrangout ****

 

[freeze]

All he needs to do is contain Lopez of Mirotic

Ibaka too, where was game 7 Ibaka? Mans was -17

Ibaka -17...but he's 42.

 

[QU!K]

Ibaka -17...but he's 42.

 

[htg designs]

"made him feel us". ok Zaza

 

[htg designs]

just checked the stats. Lowry bawled! 10/15? sheesh.

 

[freeze]

just checked the stats. Lowry bawled! 10/15? sheesh.

And it was wasted. Probs going 2/12 from 3 next game

 

[SneakerProSr.]

just checked the stats. Lowry bawled! 10/15? sheesh.

What wild is he was better than the stats

 

[second2nonee]

The spread on close games many times will come down to FTs. I read a few years ago some guy made a killing for years off betting the over for 2nd halves using this logic.

that would be the best NBA bettor in the history of betting IMO. haralabos voulgaris. mavs hired him as the Director of Quantitative Research and Development this past year. i think he used to consult on another team too. might've been the suns, and they asked him to show his predictive model or something like that.

don't wanna go into conspiracy theories as that's another topic but i'll say this, people who don't put any weight into the betting lines should probably respect it more. vegas/offshore opening lines accurately predict 60-65% of a game's outcomes, down to the margin of victory, which is far better than any other predictive model out there (gotta find my source, but it's out there). there's a reason why they have new buildings every year. these nerds are smarter than everyone else. not saying that they're always right but they're definitely more right than wrong, especially compared to the general public

basically, if a line opens up -6/+6, there's a good chance (>60%) the margin of victory will be from 5-7 (or whatever their standard deviation is). i think that's some crazy accuracy man

i think one error that these other computer models don't account for well is injuries though. models never seem to fully adjust to "X player's" value if they're injured

 

[moe200069]

Giannis on some @shotsrangout ****

pretty sure he would describe bucks interior defense as thicc and girthy

 

[freeze]

Kawhi braids receding.

Greatness is coming.

 

[lamekilla]

Bucks won at home. Series ain’t started yet.

 

[alchemist iq]

Cats making paul pierce like predictions already after 1 home game.

 

[BobbyLite]

They have inferior coaching and supporting cast. What do you expect?

Lol

 

[BobbyLite]

Like I said, Bucks have the superior role players

Lol

 

[BobbyLite]

i changed my mind bucks in 6

F outta here

 

[Platinum State]

This series over bruh.
Worst case Bucks in 6. Its beyond apparent Toronto cant beat the bucks 4 times out of the next 6 games.

 

[monstar]

Lol ride that media train. The bucks get outplayed for 3 quarters at home and win. They did what they were supposed to do.

Raptors seem to finally have gotten Lowry comfortable out there a first in his life. Brogdon will play more minutes as I expect Bledsoe to disappear and Lopez ain't gonna sustain that.

I liked my bucks pick at the start of the year but now I'm having doubts.

Milwaukee is gonna have to find other ways to get grannis going. I also see the Raptors going small at one point having Marc take a seat.

 

[danikerhino]

Yeah I can't just sleep on the Raptors like that. They has more vets with more playoff experience and also just as deep. The Bucks are more talented though.

 

[equality]

If the Raptors can’t win with Lowry having an out of fat body experience then it’s done