Who tops 2015 free-agent Big Board 2.0? LeBron James, of course
It's finally here, the last free-agency period before TV money makes everyone lose their minds.
Scratch that: The TV money hysteria starts NOW, as teams try to lock up bargain prices in the future by overpaying today. We have a clearer idea of where the cap is going to end up (roughly $67.1 million) this year, which allows us to figure out max thresholds (expressed as a percentage of the cap, depending on years of service).
At the same time, every other exception (including the midlevel, minimums and the rookie scale) is expressed as a discrete number, predetermined in 2011. In other words, while maxes go up, everything else stays the same, which means we are going to get a lot of role players whose only course of getting fair-market value is via cap space signings.
Also complicating the valuation process this year is catching up on valuing defensive players, particularly the 3-and-D market. Once considered a somewhat disposable commodity, they've been one of the most coveted role players on the market, and the inflation of their value, combined with the impending cap inflation, makes their appraisal somewhat murky.
Man, this is going to be a wild, wild free agency.
Here's my free agent Big Board 2.0, sorted by the average annual value (AAV) of the new contracts I believe each player deserves under the rules of the CBA. To make my contract value estimates, I used many of the same factors I used as a member of the Phoenix Suns' front office: age, injury history, value of recent comparable player contracts, irreplaceability of skill set, contribution to winning, history of production, fit with style and culture, marketability and current cap situation, among other things.
Remember, this is not a ranking of the best free agents -- it lines them up based on projected AAV; and the AAVs listed below represent my estimation of the approximate value of each player, not a prediction of what the player will receive on the market in 2015.
No. 1 LeBron James | SF
Last team: Cleveland Cavaliers
2014-15 salary: $20.6 million
Suggested AAV: $22.6 million/year ($45.1 million over two years, player option)
FA status: Unrestricted free agent
As expected, James opted out of his contract. We knew this would happen the day he signed his deal last summer, as he is able to use his impending free agency as a leverage tool to keep the Cavs organization honest on its promises to deliver a championship-caliber roster. Another hidden benefit of opting out: The salary cap is expected to go up by about 6 percent from 2014 to 2015, which would outpace the 4.5 percent raise he was due had he opted in. With the cap expected to jump another 33 percent next summer, it's obvious that staying flexible with the opt-out makes the most financial sense for James.
No. 2 Marc Gasol | C
Last team: Memphis Grizzlies
2014-15 salary: $15.8 million
Suggested AAV: $21.1 million/year ($84.2 million over four years, player option)
FA status: Unrestricted free agent
I'd be shocked if Gasol decided to jump ship at this point. Two of the biggest projected suitors, the Lakers and Knicks, didn't have the type of "infomercial" season that would convince him to abandon a winning franchise to undertake a rebuild, and the Spurs appear to have other targets (LaMarcus Aldridge) in their sights. The safe and smart play is to take the four-year deal from the hometown Grizzlies, with a player option on the final year to be able to test free agency one last time before his game gets any slippage, although I could see Gasol signing a three-year deal with a player option on the third year to more quickly take advantage of the new cap mathematics.
No. 3 Kevin Love | PF
Last team: Cleveland Cavaliers
2014-15 salary: $15.7 million
Suggested AAV: $21.1 million/year ($84.2 million over four years, player option)
FA status: Unrestricted free agent
If I were advising Love, I'd tell him to take a deal similar to LeBron's: two years at the max, with a player option on the second year. For one, it allows him to jump back into the money pool next summer. More importantly, it puts some pressure on the Cavs to work harder to incorporate him into the offensive scheme beyond being a pick-and-pop threat. Finally, signing a long-term contract at the discounted rate of pre-TV deal money would make him a very attractive trade chip; staying short term would discourage bad teams from trying to acquire him. But if it's security he's after (particularly in light of his shoulder injury), then the four-year deal gets the job done.
No. 4 LaMarcus Aldridge | PF
Last team: Portland Trail Blazers
2014-15 salary: $15.7 million
Suggested AAV: $20.2 million/year ($80.8 million over four years, player option)
FA status: Unrestricted free agent
In previous iterations and conversations, I've put Aldridge at the same AAV as Gasol and Love, with the assumption that their incumbent teams had the best shot at re-signing them, meaning they'd all get max deals that start at $18.9 million with 7.5 percent raises. However, the events of the previous two to three weeks, including rumblings of Aldridge's intent to depart Portland and the Blazers' self-fulfilling prophecy-fueled roster moves (trading Nic Batum and Steve Blake for younger, less established bigs) lead me to believe the writing is on the wall and Aldridge will be wearing different colors this fall. As such, he'd be eligible for just 4.5 percent raises, giving him a smaller AAV than had he stayed in Portland.
No. 5 DeAndre Jordan | C
Last team: Los Angeles Clippers
2014-15 salary: $11.4 million
Suggested AAV: $20.2 million/year ($80.8 million over four years)
FA status: Unrestricted free agent
As with Aldridge, I have reasonable doubts that Jordan will return to his team (as our Marc Stein put it on the NBA Insiders Radio Show, there's a 50-50 shot that he leaves for the Mavs). It will take a max offer to pry Jordan away from the Clippers, and to them, he is worth the max due to his irreplaceability (I wrote about this during the playoffs). He's not the defensive stalwart Doc Rivers would have you believe, but he is adequate, and he brings tremendous offensive value as a screener, rebounder and finisher above the rim.
No. 6 Goran Dragic | PG
Last team: Miami Heat
2014-15 salary: $7.5 million
Suggested AAV: $18.9 million/year ($75.7 million over four years)
FA status: Unrestricted free agent
Dragic is in a similar situation to Jordan, in that he's irreplaceable for the Miami Heat as the best point guard they've had since Tim Hardaway. Beyond that, he's also by far the best point guard on the market, a fact that's not lost upon him or his representation. It's no mistake Miami was on the short list of teams Dragic gave Phoenix as trade destinations. The Heat properly valued and were prepared to pay him. Still, Miami has several cap flexibility issues to juggle, between Wade's free-agency flirtations and the specter of having to pay Hassan Whiteside next summer (without the benefit of full Bird rights or restricted free agency). All this while also trying to keep fluid enough to be able to go big-game hunting next summer! Miami could reward Dragic with a deal that starts at the max, and in turn he could do the Heat a solid by taking a deal that dips in Year 2 before rising again. It gives them a little wiggle room while keeping Dragic happy in a Heat uniform.
No. 7 Jimmy Butler | SG/SF
Last team: Chicago Bulls
2014-15 salary: $2.0 million
Suggested AAV: $17.5 million/year ($70.2 million over four years, player option)
FA status: Restricted free agent
There have been rumblings that Butler wants to leave Chicago and strike out on his own, as well as the notion that he's interested in signing a shorter-term contract (a three-year deal with a player option on the final year). Of course, both of these ideas would run contrary to the Bulls' best interests, and fortunately for them, the CBA is on their side. As detailed by Mark Deeks of HoopsHype, Chicago can extend what is known as a maximum qualifying offer to Butler: essentially a five-year, fully guaranteed maximum deal with no options whatsoever. Butler is not obligated to sign that offer sheet, but it triggers a clause that makes any outside offer have to be at least three years long with no options, which basically (a) takes away the flexibility Butler seeks and (b) makes it easier for the Bulls to match.
No. 8 Kawhi Leonard | SF
Last team: San Antonio Spurs
2014-15 salary: $2.9 million
Suggested AAV: $17.5 million/year ($70.2 million over four years, player option)
FA status: Restricted free agent
Leonard might be the surest lock on this list. He's a perfect fit for the Spurs offensively and defensively, and no other franchise will respect his desire to fly under the radar and not inundate him with media requests and promotional appearances. Still, it's a bit of a head-scratcher why the two sides were not able to come to a deal last year during rookie extension season. Leonard responded by posting career highs in every statistical category, although his efficiency took a hit with the corresponding usage spike. Leonard's worth every dime of the max to San Antonio, as he's the Spurs' only clear bridge to a future beyond the Big Three of Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker, but don't be shocked if he doesn't re-sign immediately after the July moratorium is lifted. While the Spurs chase big names like Aldridge, it is in their interest to keep Leonard's cap hold of $7.2 million on the books rather than the $15.8 million at which his new deal would start.
No. 9 Draymond Green | SF/PF
Last team: Golden State Warriors
2014-15 salary: $915,243
Suggested AAV: $17.5 million/year ($70.2 million over four years)
FA status: Restricted free agent
Green was one of the best bargains in basketball last season, making less than $1 million while playing the role of Golden State's most versatile defensive player en route to the championship. Andre Iguodala's virtuoso performance during the Finals will make it hard to remember that Green was probably the best defender for the Warriors in the first two rounds, and played a vital role in slowing down New Orleans wunderkind Anthony Davis. We've talked several times about irreplaceability on this list, but Green is truly irreplaceable, and not only because of Golden State's inflexible cap situation. I don't know how many players in the league can legitimately guard all five positions well, but that list is very short (we had a guy like that in Phoenix in Shawn Marion, and he was a max player for us as well).
No. 10 Paul Millsap | PF
Last team: Atlanta Hawks
2014-15 salary: $9.5 million
Suggested AAV: $17.0 million/year ($51 million over three years)
FA status: Unrestricted free agent
Does the system make the man, or does the man make the system? Millsap's late bloom trumps even that of Steve Nash, since Nash at least was an All-Star in Dallas prior to his MVP years in Phoenix. The transformation from blue-collar energy player to skilled, well-rounded offensive weapon is a testament to his hard work and the creativity of the Hawks' coaching staff. The question becomes how much more improvement can the 30-year-old former second-round pick deliver? He might not have huge upside at this point, but he's still an underrated, versatile, highly skilled power forward, and those will get a lot more expensive in future cap years.
No. 11 Greg Monroe | C
Last team: Detroit Pistons
2014-15 salary: $5.5 million
Suggested AAV: $16.0 million/year ($64.0 million over four years)
FA status: Unrestricted free agent
Monroe took the ultimate gamble last year, choosing to bet on himself by taking the qualifying offer and testing unrestricted free agency. The good news: He performed well, posting career highs in scoring and rebounding. The bad news: He did nothing to dispel the notion that he's not a good enough shooter (even from midrange) to play a reliable role away from the basket. The worst news: There's a flood of bigs on the market, and almost every one of them is a much more reliable defender. As the game transitions away from back-to-the-basket play, how do we value Monroe's old-school game, especially in light of his defensive deficiency? Sixteen million dollars a year might not be the big money he was looking for, but it's also probably more than I'd feel comfortable paying him.
No. 12 Brook Lopez | C
Last team: Brooklyn Nets
2014-15 salary: $15.7 million
Suggested AAV: $15.7 million/year ($47.0 million over three years, partial guarantee on final year)
FA status: Unrestricted free agent
Like Monroe, Lopez is a bit of a throwback big with his scoring ability on the low post. Unlike Monroe, Lopez is a much more reliable shooter from midrange. However, he's also a worse defender and an atrocious rebounder on the defensive glass. Then throw in his chronic injury issues, and you'll see the difficulty in evaluating Lopez. There's value in having a big guy who can score in various ways, but not if I can't rely on him to be on the floor. Partial guarantee on the last year gives the team some security.
No. 13 Dwyane Wade | SG
Last team: Miami Heat
2014-15 salary: $15.0 million
Suggested AAV: $15.1 million/year ($47.2 million over three years, partial guarantees with incentives)
FA status: Unrestricted free agent
Raise your hand if you're tired of the Wade saga playing out in the media. I likened Wade's flirtations with other franchises (like having his dad wear a Cavs hat and T-shirt) to high schoolers liking pics on Instagram to make their significant others jealous. It's juvenile and heavy-handed, but the reality is that there's no team that can offer Wade the combination of winning and money that the Heat can. A descending-scale deal that contains games-played incentives to guarantee the following year could be a solution.
No. 14 Robin Lopez | C
Last team: Portland Trail Blazers
2014-15 salary: $6.1 million
Suggested AAV: $14.0 million/year ($42.0 million over three years)
FA status: Unrestricted free agent
Lopez is the perfect complementary big: He defends, protects the rim, his counterparts always rebound better defensively when he's on the floor, he crashes offensive boards, he's an excellent finisher out of pick-and-roll and he can hit the weakside midrange jumper. If you have a premier scoring big (particularly a poor defending one), Lopez is a good investment.
No. 15 Tristan Thompson | PF/C
Last team: Cleveland Cavaliers
2014-15 salary: $5.1 million
Suggested AAV: $13.0 million/year ($52.0 million over four years, player option)
FA status: Restricted free agent
As a pivotal piece in the Cavs' run to the Finals, Thompson's energy, rebounding and defensive acumen combine to make him an excellent small-ball center. However, his relative lack of skill and problems finishing around the basket make him somewhat of a liability in traditional lineups. He's still young and developing, and Cleveland will be pressured to pay him more handsomely to appease LeBron, but I'm still hesitant to give bigger money to a player who struggles to finish at the rim at times.
No. 16 Tyson Chandler | C
Last team: Dallas Mavericks
2014-15 salary: $14.9 million
Suggested AAV: $13.0 million/year ($26.0 million over two years)
FA status: Unrestricted free agent
He's long in the tooth, but he still provides excellent value as a team defensive anchor and communicator on the floor. Chandler still posted a top-five defensive RPM among centers, and rebounded the ball extremely well on both ends, all while managing to convert on nearly three-quarters of his shots at the rim.
No. 17 Brandon Knight | PG
Last team: Phoenix Suns
2014-15 salary: $3.6 million
Suggested AAV: $12.5 million/year ($50.0 million over four years)
FA status: Restricted free agent
Knight had a career year last season. Unfortunately for the Suns, most of it came in a Bucks uniform, as injuries bedeviled him shortly after his arrival in Phoenix. I'm not quite sold on Knight's play on the defensive end, and he has a tendency to develop tunnel vision on the offensive end, but when you give up an All-NBA guard in Dragic, you have to have something to show for it.
No. 18 Khris Middleton | SG/SF
Last team: Milwaukee Bucks
2014-15 salary: $915,243
Suggested AAV: $12.5 million/year ($50.0 million over four years)
FA status: Restricted free agent
Three seasons ago, Middleton barely logged 500 minutes for the moribund Pistons. Fast forward to last season and he was possibly the brightest spot in the Bucks' bounce-back season, especially after No. 2 pick Jabari Parker got injured. Middleton's the best of the second-tier 3-and-D players on the market, with enough upside to grow into something more.
No. 19 Danny Green | SG/SF
Last team: San Antonio Spurs
2014-15 salary: $4.0 million
Suggested AAV: $11.5 million/year ($46.0 million over four years)
FA status: Restricted free agent
The pure 3-and-D market will be tough to gauge this summer; these players' rising importance in roster construction combined with the rising cap makes for some difficult valuations. Had the cap maintained steady, I would say the market value had risen from about $4 million-$5 million a year to about $7 million-$7.5 million. Factor in a projected cap increase of roughly 40 percent from 2014 to 2016, and that number rises to about $10.5 million. Throwing in the $1 million "you won a ring" bonus for Green gives us an AAV of $11.5 million.
No. 20 DeMarre Carroll | SG/SF
Last team: Atlanta Hawks
2014-15 salary: $2.4 million
Suggested AAV: $10.5 million/year ($31.5 million over three years)
FA status: Unrestricted free agent
Like his teammate Millsap, Carroll has undergone quite the transformation from the type of player he was entering the NBA. Always a stalwart defender, Carroll has added the 3-point shot to his arsenal over the past two seasons and made himself one of the better 3-and-D players in the league.
No. 21 Kosta Koufos | C
Last team: Memphis Grizzlies
2014-15 salary: $3.0 million
Suggested AAV: : $10.5 million/year ($31.5 million over three years)
FA status: Unrestricted free agent
I anticipate someone will pay less than this mark to sign Koufos, and they'll be getting an absolute steal. He's a starting caliber center who's been stuck playing behind one of the best frontlines in the entire league, and will likely blossom on his own team. He's a high-level defensive center, an excellent rebounder, and a decent pick and roll player.
No. 22 Monta Ellis | PG/SG
Last team: Dallas Mavericks
2014-15 salary: $8.4 million
Suggested AAV: $10.0 million/year ($30.0 million over three years, player option)
FA status: Unrestricted free agent
Ellis outplayed my previous valuation for him in 2013, but it took a perfect situation with an aging Dirk Nowitzki gracefully accepting a lesser role. Unfortunately, that hasn't been enough to make the Mavs a contender, as they still lack another bona fide star talent, and Ellis' defensive issues have persisted. If you need buckets, Ellis is your guy, but it's hard to expect anything more.
No. 23 Tobias Harris | SF/PF
Last team: Orlando Magic
2014-15 salary: $2.4 million
Suggested AAV: $9.0 million/year ($27.0 million over three years)
FA status: Restricted free agent
Harris is a mixed bag; on the one hand, he's an adept scorer, particularly with smaller defenders on him, and has improved his 3-point percentage to respectable levels (although most of his damage came from the corners). But he's also a ball stopper on the offensive end, not a creator for others and an atrocious defender. Invariably, someone will pay him for his offensive promise, but I can't justify overpaying for a poor man's Carmelo Anthony.
No. 24 Ed Davis | PF/C
Last team: Los Angeles Lakers
2014-15 salary: $981,084
Suggested AAV: $8.0 million/year ($24.0 million over three years)
FA status: Unrestricted free agent
Davis' one year gamble playing for the veteran's minimum in Los Angeles seems to have paid off: he got a lot of minutes (partly because Julius Randle was sidelined all year with injury), and was able to showcase what he does extremely well: finish at the rim at a high level and rebound the basketball on both ends. A good shotblocker, his slight build and occasional defensive lapses make him an average defender at best.
No. 25 Brandan Wright | PF/C
Last team: Phoenix Suns
2014-15 salary: $5.0 million
Suggested AAV: $8.0 million/year ($24.0 million over three years)
FA status: Unrestricted free agent
He was the original "skinny guy-rebounder-finisher-shotblocker-unreliable defender," and I feel as though his prior contract was fair value (AAV: $5.0 million). He doesn't have the post moves that Davis has around the basket, but he's a better athlete (both vertically and running the floor).
No. 26 Patrick Beverley | PG
Last team: Houston Rockets
2014-15 salary: $915,243
Suggested AAV: $8.0 million/year ($32.0 million over four years)
FA status: Restricted free agent
Beverley might end up being one of the most undervalued guys on this list. In a golden era of point guard play, Beverley might be the premier defensive player at his position. An absolute pest, Beverley combines quick feet, quick hands, dogged determination and shrewd decision making to make life hell for opposing lead guards. His ability to contribute on the other end with his 3-point shooting makes him a perfect complement to teams with ball dominant non-point guards (like teammate James Harden and Ellis).
No. 27 Jared Dudley | SG/SF
Last team: Milwaukee Bucks
2014-15 salary: $4.3 million
Suggested AAV: $7.0 million/year ($21.0 million over three years)
FA status: Early termination option
Put Dudley alongside Shumpert and the eye test would dictate Shumpert is by far the superior player, but the truth is Dudley is a better shooter, better finisher, and had a bigger impact on team defense than Shumpert did. Add in his impact on locker room chemistry, and he's one of the best value "glue guys" we have in the league.
No. 28 Iman Shumpert | SG/SF
Last team: Cleveland Cavaliers
2014-15 salary: $2.6 million
Suggested AAV: $6.5 million/year ($26.0 million over four years)
FA status: Restricted free agent
It's undeniable that Shumpert had a huge impact on the Cavaliers' resurgence midseason and their playoff run to the Finals. It's also undeniable that his 3-point shooting has been inconsistent over the last few seasons, and his finishing at the rim has been atrocious. Still, his on-ball defensive versatility makes him valuable, and his shooting, while streaky, isn't that bad.
No. 29 Jae Crowder | SF/PF
Last team: Boston Celtics
2014-15 salary: $915,243
Suggested AAV: $915,243
FA status: Restricted free agent
The best thing to happen to Crowder was getting traded to Boston, and truth be told, he probably should have been playing more in Dallas to begin with. I've always liked Crowder's defensive intensity, but questioned whether his 3-point range was good enough. He's gone through streaks, but still isn't quite good enough from beyond the arc, but definitely worth a full midlevel exception look.
No. 30 Al-Farouq Aminu | SF/PF
Last team: Dallas Mavericks
2014-15 salary: $981,084
Suggested AAV: $5.8 million/year ($23.3 million over four years)
FA status: Unrestricted free agent
Like Davis, Aminu gambled on himself with a minimum deal and a player option. Like Crowder, Aminu is a decent 3-point shot away from being one of the premier defensive wings. His size gives him more defensive versatility than most, and his athleticism allows him to get out in transition and get easy buckets.
