EUROPE = SCREWED

[theone2401]

Originally Posted by Dey Know Yayo

the yen's and dollar's strength will be temporary. next year i see USD and JPY start declining as well finally.

all of this quantitative easing means fiat currencies as a collective will eventually face mass devaluation against hard assets once the deleveraging gorilla runs it course.

I agree 100% everyone knows there is no way the US will be able to pay back their debts...but do not be surprised how long this dollar strengthwill last.

The savings rate in the US is rising rapidly = demand for treasuries
EU on the brink of collapse = demand for treasuries
deflation = demand for treasuries
risk aversion = demand for treasuries

you might be surprised how long the dollar holds out. Devaluation is assured though. I think, personally, one of them will fall first (the yen or the dollar)and then all hell will break loose. For people that arent positioned incase of devalution, pray it is the yen.

 

[brettthejett]

If you haven't heard yet...

the world is in a recession*

*except for Russia.....

Read this before you hate http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_economy

..it's only up from here.
My dad's apartment in Moscow was bought for $200k (USD) 3 years ago.
Now worth 1.2 million (USD)

 

[theone2401]

Originally Posted by brettTHEjett


If you haven't heard yet...

the world is in a recession*

*except for Russia.....

Read this before you hate http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_economy

..it's only up from here.
My dad's apartment in Moscow was bought for $200k (USD) 3 years ago.
Now worth 1.2 million (USD)

Oil dropping to below 40 dollars a barrel = Russia in a recession sorry bud. And thanks for the heads up I didnt know there was a huge real estate bubble inRussia as well.

 

[brettthejett]

United States of America: Public Debt $10.88 trillion (February 2009) 77% of GDP

Russia: Public Debt 7% of GDP (2007 est.) APPROX: $145 million

 

[theone2401]

Originally Posted by brettTHEjett

United States of America: Public Debt $10.88 trillion (February 2009) 77% of GDP

Russia: Public Debt 7% of GDP (2007 est.) APPROX: $145 million

Have you seen the ruble lately? their stock market? Do you know how many days they have had to close it down because it reached the circuit breakers?

The debt is irrelavant. Russia was making bank when oil was 145 a barrel now its >40 = less revenue = recession.

 

[jdb1523]

^The US finances Russian banks. If we asked for our money back, their economy would be toast, not to mention what theone said is right on point. As oil goes,Russia goes.

 

[DownByLaw]

Originally Posted by kidUFC

to long to read.

You can't be serious with yours?

That's some crazy *$%+, Euro possibly on the brink of a freefall?

 

[tom jooks]

Originally Posted by lurkin2long

2010-2012 gonna be crazy. 2009 is just an intro until he REAL bs smacks us in the face.

Why wait till 2012? Just off yourself now.

 

[theone2401]

[h2]Wednesday, February 25, 2009[/h2]http://[h3]Russia's Economy DeclinesAt An 8% Annual Rate In January[/h3]Russia's economy contracted at an annual rate of 8.8 per cent in January, according to the latest statement by theRussian economy minister. This data point, which provides us with the latest confirmation that a very sharp contraction is now taking place in Russia, followslast week's announcement by economic development minister Elvira Nabiullina, economic development minister, that the economy shrank by 2.4 per cent betweenDecember and January. Industrial production also fell 16 per cent year-on-year in January, while there was a 17 per cent decline in construction.

It also gives us some indication of the viability of VTB's Russian GDP Indicator (as posted here) which indicated a year on year rate of contraction of 4percent in January, down from December's 1.1 percent decline, and November's 2.1 percent expansion. This is somewhat under the actual reading, but itis an estimate in real time (we got this at the start of February) and it was by far the nearest estimate I have seen.








In its official estimates, the economy ministry said the global downturn was filtering deeper into the real economy and had begun to weigh heavily on ordinarycitizens.

"Among the negative consequences of the deepening crisis, we can now count a notable drop in the population's real income growth (6.7 percent), increasing unemployment and, as a result, falling consumer demand," the ministry said. "The most important reasons for the economic fall of January 2009 is the significant fall in industrial production, the decline in investment activity, a drop in construction and slowing consumer demand."


Among the hardest-hit segments, the ministry cited fertiliser producers, which cut output by 42 percent, while tyre producers reduced their output to almostzero. Car production also fell, by 80 percent, and the ministry cited lack of cheap car loans amid a general decline of personal income and excessiveproduction in 2008. Retail sales and agriculture still remained in positive territory areas which were still growing - at 2.4 percent and 2.6 percentrespectively - although they are already down sharply and there is evidently more to come.



Exports fell more than 40 percent to $20.2 billion as the country exported less oil and gas at lower prices, while imports fell by a third to $10.3 billion asa 35 percent rouble devaluation, which continued throughout January, started hitting importers. Consumers of heavy machinery reduced purchases of foreignequipment by 47 percent and food and chemical imports fell by 25 and 29 percent, respectively.

All of this, of course, has quite serious implications for Russia's public finances, and the budget deficit is now projected to reach 8% of GDP in 2009,according to Nabiullina, who said the figure took into account so-called quasi-budgetary expenditures in the form of subordinated loans to business, whichwould (in principle) be repaid at a later date. The federal budget for 2009 originally set expenditures at 9.024 trillion rubles ($250 billion at currentexchange rates) and revenues at slightly over 10 trillion rubles ($277 billion), but the drop in oil prices has cut the expected income dramatically.

The budget was based on an average oil price of $95 per barrel for the year, but is being recalculated based on a figure of $41 per barrel.

That's some crazy *$%+, Euro possibly on the brink of a freefall?

Its on the brink of not existing

 

[theone2401]

I posted this in another thread but it is more relevant here.

EU claims has solution to euro state default

By AOIFE WHITE - 16 hours ago

BRUSSELS (AP) - The European Union's top economy official said Tuesday that the 16 countries using the euro have a solution ready to rescue any member in danger of defaulting on public debt payments - but said it "is not clever" to give details in public.

EU Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia said "the solution exists," and indicated that "it is possible and it is reasonable" for two euro countries to raise money by issue bonds together.

But he hedged that by saying such combined bonds were not "politically viable today because some important member states said no."

Germany has denied reports that it was weighing up issuing bilateral bonds with other nations - although German Chancellor Angela Merkel said last week that euro nations would "find ways of solidarity" if necessary.

Almunia said the euro zone's solution would kick in before a member nation needed to approach the International Monetary Fund for a bailout.

EU spokeswoman Amelia Torres said it was unlikely that any euro country will hit this kind of trouble.

But investors see the risk that euro-zone nations like Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Greece and Italy could default on debt payments because of the world economic slump and are charging them more to borrow through government bonds.

Almunia rejected speculation that any euro nation would quit the currency - a move that might allow it devalue its currency and stoke sluggish demand.

No government has raised the prospect of leaving the euro area - which would trigger a range of political and economic problems and undermine European efforts to join their economies.

"Who is crazy enough to leave the euro area? Nobody," Almunia said. "The number of candidates to join the euro area increases, the number of candidates to leave the euro area is zero."

The EU's executive Commission says that the shared currency has helped create a safe haven for member nations, increasing trade between them and helping shield them against the worst of the global financial crisis.

But he said he was concerned by recent exchange rate volatility, even though he welcomed the recent fall of the euro against the U.S. dollar.

Almunia said the current euro exchange rate of $1.26 was "within the range of what we can consider normal" because it fell between $1.20 to $1.30. He said the EU's executive still sees the Chinese yuan as undervalued.

He was more pessimistic about the economy after a raft of gloomy data indicated a bad start to the year. He said "downside risks are bigger" than January when the Commission forecast that the euro-zone would contract 1.9 percent this year and the entire European Union by 1.8 percent.

Almunia said governments needed to lay out plans to cut public debt in the longer-term to stabilize their economies.

But he said it was too soon for the European Union's 27 nations to consider follow-up stimulus programs to the plans they have already announced to stoke growth this year.

Existing spending plans cost 3.3 percent of the EU's gross domestic product, he said, including 1.1 percent of GDP for stimulus programs and 1.7 percent of GDP for 'automatic stabilizers' when governments spend more on welfare as the economy slows.

Copyright [emoji]169[/emoji] 2009 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.


We have a plan we just dont know what it is yet

This should instill some confidence in the Euro Zone We are so screwed.

 

[brettthejett]

I stand sadly corrected.

However...I'd like a source on "The US finances Russian banks"


and....Have you seen the ruble lately? their stock market?

-The Russian stock market could fit into my bedroom. It's essentially a couple of billionaires trading meaningless pieces of paper.
-The ruble has changed dramatically since a recent government act to encourage citizens to put their /black/ money into the banking system. The basicallydropped a zero off the value.

I honestly don't have any education or understanding of ecnonomy, but that is what I do know from first hand experience.

 

[brettthejett]

If I were to choose my currency of payment for a large amount of money I shall be recieving in the next 18 months, what would NTs opinion be for the strongestcurrency.
Keeping in mind I'm Canadian, although I don't nessesarily need to transferr assets into Canadian Currency.

 

[theone2401]

Originally Posted by brettTHEjett

I stand sadly corrected.

However...I'd like a source on "The US finances Russian banks"


and....Have you seen the ruble lately? their stock market?

-The Russian stock market could fit into my bedroom. It's essentially a couple of billionaires trading meaningless pieces of paper.
-The ruble has changed dramatically since a recent government act to encourage citizens to put their /black/ money into the banking system. The basically dropped a zero off the value.

I honestly don't have any education or understanding of ecnonomy, but that is what I do know from first hand experience.

Yes I understand the common people do not invest in stocks in Russia. But I am pretty sure the stocks dropping was a result of the impending recession. And ifthe government encouraged citizens to put their money into the banking system that should be a red flag that there are underlying problems. I dont know thedetails of this and would be interested to hear what you know, but, from the outside looking in that is suspicious.

If I were to choose my currency of payment for a large amount of money I shall be recieving in the next 18 months, what would NTs opinion be for the strongest currency.

i dont envy you one bit. The amount of currency risk youwill be assuming over that time is more then you could ever imagine. There are so many factors that could make anything anyone recommends completely null andvoid. If China breaks their dollar peg choosing the dollar would be a bad choice. People assume in that situation China's currency would appreciate but itmay very well collapse it self because all of the hot money might rush out of China.

18 months is way to far out in the future and if that doesnt tell how serious this economic situation is then I dont know what does. My bet would be the dollaras long as they dont lose reserve currency status and China doesnt float thier currency. But if the US begins denominating debt it other currencies or othercountries being to dump treasuries and US bond yields increase all bets are off. Your least risky bet might be a currency that is commodity based (canada orAU) at least they probably have less downside. but wow what a predicament that is. Id be pulling my hair out if the amount was really high.

 

[jdb1523]

^I'll see if I can find a link for you, but I'm at a business school in London and my Russian classmates have brought it up in class before, soI'll see if I can get you a link.

 

[rellnye]

Originally Posted by JDB1523

^The US finances Russian banks. If we asked for our money back, their economy would be toast, not to mention what theone said is right on point. As oil goes, Russia goes.

To be honest I don't think we should have bailed them out in 99.

 

[freakydestroyer]

The Whole World=Screwed

 

[nicefro]

 

[theprocessofbelief]

Originally Posted by LESfamilia

Originally Posted by Fede DPT


Socialism FTL.

that maybe, but they still have free healthcare.

And the quality is terrible.

maybe in Europe.

The best minds seem to flock to the USA, as they will pay professionals the best wage.

What happens when the US can no longer do that?

Canadian medicial system, mostly FTW, occasionally FTL.

 

[mr 1246]

lol @ bretthejett,
yes I have read up a lot on russia too, we're all doin not so hot

 

[freddypee]

Originally Posted by RellNye

Originally Posted by JDB1523

^The US finances Russian banks. If we asked for our money back, their economy would be toast, not to mention what theone said is right on point. As oil goes, Russia goes.

To be honest I don't think we should have bailed them out in 99.

I was saying the same thing in one of my finance classes the other day.

 

[duba169]

Originally Posted by Fede DPT

why exactly are you comparing Mao to Obama....

I'm honestly interested. I'd like the answer to be more than one word that happens to start with an s.

 

[seymore cake]

the world is turning on it head right now

 

[fede dpt]

Originally Posted by theprocessofbelief

Originally Posted by LESfamilia

Originally Posted by Fede DPT


Socialism FTL.

that maybe, but they still have free healthcare.

And the quality is terrible.

maybe in Europe.

The best minds seem to flock to the USA, as they will pay professionals the best wage.

What happens when the US can no longer do that?

Canadian medicial system, mostly FTW, occasionally FTL.


Canadian system is terrible too. You will wait onths for an MRI. You guys have to understand that "Universal Health Care" is RATIONED.

why exactly are you comparing Mao to Obama....

I'm honestly interested. I'd like the answer to be more than one word that happens to start with an s.�


Read the Little Red Book.


Even NBC is turning on the Messiah






��

 

[jdb1523]

Cramer is 100% right in everything he said in that video.

 

[jdb1523]

^What?